tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg July 24, 2017 10:00am-11:00am EDT
cover with's to donald trump, opec, but first we have economic data in the united states to do with housing. julie hyman has this data. >> existing home sales for june coming in at $5.52 million. that is slightly below the $5.57 million estimated. it means a month over month decline of 1.8%. in the existing home sales. we have seen a choppy or existing home sales data -- choppier visiting home sales data generally which has been driving prices higher. our contract closing down 1.8% month over month as we see a slowdown. this is the number that tends to move the overall markets. we see stocks mixed today as we
are looking at earnings and waiting for earnings as well. 190 eight companies within the s&p 500 are set to report their numbers this week. some have already reported this morning. so the major average is mixed on those numbers and in anticipation of numbers to come. we are watching oil prices closely as we have opec and non-opec nations meeting in st. petersburg. we are seeing crude oil prices in the u.s. up by 1%. saudi arabia said it would cut exports next month even as libya and nigeria will keep on increasing from saudi arabia to exports helping to boost oil prices. we are also starting to get more numbers from the oil producers and service companies. halliburton is one example. on the one hand, i'm just going to call up the chart on my terminal here, on the one hand, the company earnings were relatively strong so initially, in reaction, we saw the shares
moving higher. revenue was at 29%. on the conference call, halliburton says the customers in north america are "tapping the brakes." now they are trading down by more than 3%. elsewhere in earnings land, we are hearing from toymaker hasbro which saw weakness in some of its key products, like the easy ool and superaysk soaker brands. we are also watching disney because they saw some weakness in the groups that included "star wars." but the upcoming film will help resolve the second half of the year. disney down 8% and pulling down its rival mattel as well. what are we seeing in europe? mark: down for thursday, the worst run in july after falling for the first week in three. last week, automakers, you see slumpoday extending their
as the eu says they are studying possible collusion among german producers. arestors in auto companies concerned the industry faces another major scandal following the diesel emissions crisis. a stronger currency, a stronger euro forcing european stocks to give up their winning position they held among global peers earlier this year. halvedo stoxx 50 has its gains. it is now leading the world index by the most since october. that is the red line. the euro rally picking up that meeting on thursday, helping extend the equities to their biggest weekly drop. big earnings week here as well. switzerland's third-biggest private bank exceeding its target for new money in the first half, up by six point sent
-- 6%. strong inclines were the area has set up recruitments to private bankers. new money was held by strong inflows from asia, the middle east, and monaco as well as substantial recovery in latin america, sending shares up by 6% today. the biggest daily increase since february 2015. phillips today reporting second-quarter profit up by 15%. the dutch held company keeping an outlook of sales growth in western europe, north america, and china. it has made a series of acquisitions in recent months spectronetics, a u.s. creator of devices for cardiac disease. shares in phillips up by 4%. vonnie: we will keep an eye on that story. and a week ofton
hearings. trump senior adviser jared kushner arrived just moments ago on capitol hill to testify at a closed senate committee hearing. the former campaign chairman paul manafort and son, donald trump jr. are scheduled to testify on panels involving russia's involvement in the election. earlier, kushner released a statement saying "i did not collude nor know of anyone else in the campaign who colluded with any foreign government. i had no improper contact. russianot relied on funds to finance my activities in the private sector." joining us now is kevin cirilli, washington correspondent for bloomberg news. given the testimony, is it case closed? kevin: i am holding this public statement from jared kushner who has arrived here. as he not take questions
entered into a closed briefing with the senate intelligence committee staffers. it is unknown whether or not he will make public remarks after that but there is no question that republicans as well as democrats are questioning him for those meetings, those disclosures that he has added to the filings to get that national security clearance when he joined the administration. the actually just filed more additions to his disclosure forms on friday. the president himself is trying to push back against what has drowned out all washington news today. earlier, he tweeted "why aren't the committees and investigators and our beleaguered attorney general looking into crooked hillary's crimes and russia relations?" despite all the controversy, the administration trying to get on offense. mark: on the matter of russia, we've got the bill to sanction the country. will donald trump actually sign this bill? kevin: over the weekend, the
congress and the house of representatives reaching a deal, a bipartisan deal on the nearly unanimous russia sanctions bill that passed a couple of weeks ago in the senate. they tweak the bill to allow some u.s. businesses to have business relationships with russia if it is only about a 33% stake. that said, sarah huckabee sanders, the press secretary for the administration saying on the sunday show that "we support where the legislation is now but it would essentially handcuff this administration in the sense would be of to override any type of deal the administration makes with russia should it decide to weaken these sanctions." how is the business world reacting to all of this? bloomberg, go the #btv 6649 go, you have good economic indicator of investments into russia. this year alone has seen $500
million worth about flow. that is -- of outflow. that is the most since this started a decade ago, clearly a sign that investors are not looking into russia. vonnie: mitch mcconnell has promised a procedural vote on health care tomorrow. will we get it and will it pass? kevin: who knows. the republicans i have spoken with don't even know what bill they are trying to proceed on whether it is a repeal or a repeal and replace. the president wants a legislative victory but a lot of confusion on health care. it is unlikely that will get done this week. chiefin cirilli, washington correspondent. let's check in on first word news. jessica has more. we will return to jessica summers in just a moment. for is the first word news this hour. the president of poland says he will veto part of a judicial
overhaul that is seen as threatening the independence of the court system. the legislation has led to eight straight days of antigovernment protests. the president will veto bills of the supreme court and the judicial council which decide which judges are promoted. the eu has threatened sanctions over the issue and we will be examining that issue later in the hour. >> in san antonio, texas, nine people have died in what authorities say was a human smuggling operation that went wrong. the victims and 30 others were found in an overheated tractor-trailer in a parking lot. seven people are being treated for life-threatening injuries. in france, president emmanuel macron's popularity has taken a dive after just two months on the job. a poll shows his approval rating fell 10 percentage points in the last month to 54%. voters are either confused or unhappy about his plans for the tax system. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
2000 17. the deutsche bank is set to plan completing its balance sheet move from march 2019. we will bring you details as soon as we get it. vonnie: thanks, mark. time for futures in focus. oil is that at $46 a barrel after saudi arabia cut exports. gold climbing as the dollar continues to weaken. joining us from the cme is -- >> countries that haven't been complying so much -- >> they have to set the example so if we look at what saudi arabia is doing they have to do it first themselves to expect nigeria's and libya's and russia's of the world to follow suit. i believe that when they talk about extending production cuts beyond their first term that is int is necessary if they,
fact, want to cut production. the non-opec members will hopefully follow suit and it is going to be a gray area for some time as to how closely those countries follow but they have to take the lead. it seems vonnie: to be vonnie: conviction out there that demand is going to increase. where will it increase from an are we sure about that. >> that is the question. if you look at what is happening in the u.s. there was talk that the economy is expanding and economic growth would add to oil demand and that may be on hold right now and china is another area where we the decreased demand in oil buying -- increased demand in oil buying. locally, the global economy is at a tipping point where we could see central banks taking their foot off the gas to allow these economy to run off their own and that could hinder growth over the short term. now, global growth is a bit suspect and that will hurt oil prices and it is going to keep them from ascending to higher
levels. vonnie: do you see it stay around the $45 mark or will we see lower oil prices even if saudi cuts? >> right now, that $40 range to $50 is pretty high range. it will take some kind of unforeseen event, some kind of catalyst to put oil prices north of 50. once we get to the $40 range it becomes who can produce at those levels and we start to see natural supply fall off the board. right now, it is -- the comfort zone for oil is between $42 and $48 but we have just been waiting for something to happen whether it is production cut effects or demand. the two offset each other and we haven't seen one push oil prices one direction or the other. mark: the federal reserve meeting on wednesday. has the outlook gotten grimmer than what we would have expected a couple of months ago?
>> i don't think so. they will continue to redefine their inflation expectations but it will be in the form of a statement where we don't see any specific q&a. they want to address the balance sheet and that could come as early as september. the market is looking at 50/50 odds of a rate hike before the end of the year, a traditional rate hike, and that will hinder some of the data over the next month or so. with gdp coming out on friday, the gdp has not been a strong number since q3 of 2016. we have seen provisions higher in the third quarter of this year but we ultimately need a strong seller number on friday to take that off the board for the fed's reasoning for my hiking and that slow growth -- not hiking and that slow growth. vonnie: todd colvin with today's futures in focus, thank you. mark: still ahead, the 34-year-old tasked with repairing a legacy. $280 million away.
mark: this is bloomberg markets. i am mark barton in london. vonnie: in new york, i am vonnie quinn. the ceo and chairman of this capital runs the show as that hedge fund that the company face is very much in the hands of a named known 34-year-old jimmy levens. this is following a scandal. bloomberg spoke with him and joins us now. tell us about the scandal first. >> this is something that goes back a few years. in 2014 they revealed they were
under investigation for the bribes they paid in countries to win a lucrative deal. and once the regulators got on, they caused problems and asset flows, $20 billion walked out the door and now they have to shift the narrative or bounceback. mark: i'm going to use a line in your wonderful story. is this a hail mary stab to win back his seat of dominance in the hedge fund universe. or is it a stroke of genius? >> that is the question everyone is trying to figure out. $100it started, it was billion. it went on to become a $50 million hedge fund, almost $50 billion in assets. all of that changed and a few more missteps and this could be big trouble for the funds. that is what they are trying to do. vonnie: this guy is 34 years old so a lot of veterans are just does go years old that him and he is going to get a package of
$280 million and turn this into a fixed income shop. will he succeed? >> that is what they are trying to figure out. he is largely unknown outside of within thee but investors, he is seen as someone with a golden touch. he has delivered in the last 10 years how he came to be at och -ziff. he was a summer camp counselor where he happened to be waterskiing with kids. he had a computer science degree from harvard and went on to work for treasury secretary steven mnuchin, finally landing at oxford in 2006 and then he has had some successful trades. he has guided the firm well and is managing assets. aspectsare there -- metrics you will have to meet? >> the metrics he has to meet,
he has to be in a position where he can double the company stocks. right now, it has gone up 125%. ,hen you look at the stoxx three dollars down, about 80% from where it was in 2013, you would much rather take it when it is three dollars then when it is trading at 10. vonnie: i recommend of the but he read that story. it is on the bloomberg now. thank you from the bloomberg news. we have breaking news. bloomberg reporting that u.s. antitrust officials have been talking to representatives from at&t and time warner about possible conditions for their timeouts -- their tieups. , gerry smith who helped break the details. >> this merger has gone into the next phase where at&t and time warner are talking to lawyers at the justice department about approving this deal with conditions.
there has been a lot of speculation about whether the deal can go through. president trump has criticized cnn and suggested he might use that as leverage to block the deal but what we are hearing is and the justice department at&t and time warner as other programmers are talking about ways that this deal could go through and there could be conditions attached to the deal that would prevent at&t from harming some of its rivals. mark: what amazes me is that doj lawyers are starting talks without their new boss being able to weigh in. >> that is another thing we are hearing right now, that premium channels, some of hbo's rivals are concerned about possibly using hbo to discriminate against other channels like showtime and stars so that is being considered right now. vonnie: it would seem like you would need to have an
administrative position on that neutrality as well and we don't know where we are with this administration yet so i'm not quite sure how anybody is supposed to negotiate this. what are the assets that either company could forfend in order to have that? >> if you look at comcast, there is a lot of comparison to that. one of the things being discussed is the potential conditions on hbo, for example, not allowing people to watch hbo , the streaming version, on their phones and not have that go for data -- count towards your data, so there really is concerned about how you could use hbo in terms of packaging and favoring it in terms of distribution. mark: what do we learn than from comcast, nbcl that universal deal. what can we take away from that?
that is a similar type of deal, isn't it? looking of people are at the comcast-nbc deal as a blueprint because in a similar way, these are not two rivals that are necessarily getting together. one is a supplier of programming and one is a distributor. there were dozens of conditions placed on comcast when it bought nbc universal and so the thinking is that at least some of those conditions would be opposed on at&t for this deal to go through. vonnie: is this better for the consumer if it does go through? >> consumer groups have expressed concern about it. some congresspeople have expressed concerns. and time warner, their position is that this will help consumers, that they can provide more of a competitor to some of the companies like facebook and google, it would allow them to do more targeted advertising.
there are opportunities for at&t to offer lower-cost programming but there have been consumer groups who have expressed concern about this and obviously, the president has expressed concern about cnn which would be part of at&t if this goes through. vonnie: i think you got some reporting ahead of you on this one. it might last sometimes. but thank you. that is our media reporter gerry smith. mark: let's move on ahead with low running inflation, will it cause the fed to hold off on further rate hikes? we will hear from the former fed governor dan tarullo with an exclusive interview. plus, the latest on deutsche bank, set to be moving $350 billion in assets. this is bloomberg. ♪
deutsche bank are calling to a matter,amiliar with the $350 billion on the balance sheet of its u.k. indices to frankfurt. steven arons breaking this from frankfurt. what is the timeline of this? ven: it is going to start happening and they are laying the groundwork. there start reaching out to clients in september. then they will be building up the i.t. , they willr from now start moving those trades and hope to complete this by march 2019. vonnie: if this project --is this project just about the balancing and reporting in a
different jurisdiction? or is it about jobs, stephen? is it the same effort moving jobs to frankfurt? steve: it is also about jobs. this particular project seems to be about the assets and the scales. london is still a very, very important booking hub, and this is moving to frankfurt to a large extent. but jobs will be affected. client -- client counsel be moved. it is clear that some traders and risk managers will certainly move. we've heard about a few hundred but the exact numbers not entirely known. ,ark: is john cryan essentially the chief executive, is he girding for a hard brexit now? steve: what deutsche bank has been saying if they're hoping
for the best, preparing for the worst. no one could say the brexit will entail. deutsche bank saying, we will make reparations if a hard brexit does happen -- we will make preparations if a hard brexit does happen. mark: great stuff. thanks for jumping on air. story just breaking. vonnie: now to the u.s. economy. weak inflation expecting to weigh on the decision of interest rates this week by the fed. anet yellen told lawmakers in meeting that inflation remains low, but did not signal a change in the feds path -- in the fed's pass on a rate hike. orientation shifted from what is the reason to raise
reason towhat is the go off the path for gradual increases? as you can tell from the comments of chair yellen and others, people are thinking about what is going on with inflation. next couplew in the of meetings, those concerns will be strong enough that the fed will hold off from another rate increase or not. i think this question of what is driving inflation is not a new one. it is not like the fed has discovered in the last six months that the phillips curve is not operating as they might have liked. the phillips curve has not been a good predictor of inflation for 20 years now. just a weak correlation between inflation and unemployment. that has been well documented at this point. and people know it. i think it is interesting that notwithstanding the people know tointellectually, they tend fall back on the intuition that has employment strengthens come at some point, wages are going
to increase, and at some point, so will inflation. david: how do you balance the upside and downside risks of getting --risks of going too fast or too slow? what are the risks are going to slow as opposed to really slowing down the economy? the mostne of important factors for the last several years for people thinking about monetary policy has been the fact that with interest rates low, still pretty close to zero, should be get a shock to the economy. there is not room to reduce rates. if you consider that in normal recession, the fed's responsibly 700 basis points of easing, there is no room to do that. therefore, there has been a sense that the risk in a structural since our asymmetrical to the downside. the risks on the other side of runaway inflation seem pretty modest at this juncture.
caseay be able to make a for inflation getting to target of staying there. but it is hard to make a case for the kind of inflation run away we saw in the late 1970's. with respect to asset prices, that is something that people have been looking at and thinking about for at least three or four years now. most analyses would suggest that while they bear watching, they are not the immediate kinds of concerns you got highly leveraged asset bubbles that could break in a very destructive way. david: it is not only interest rates that the fed has as a tool in its toolbox, but there was the balance sheet. there has been talk about reducing the balance sheet. why now? daniel: that is a good question. the first factor is that there has been a group of people who has been one into reduce the size of the balance sheet for
some time now. whole, has fed, as a not wanted to do so until rates untileen raised enough there was more room to accommodate a mild slowdown in the economy. points't have 300 basis worth of room, but you have 50 basis points were the room. why go now? there are a couple of reasons. one is the sense that the fed announced it was going to begin to change the size of the balance sheet wants rates got up to a certain point. the markets seemed to think that it was above 1% and that is where we are. i think the second reason may be as the uncertainty of chair yellen being appointed is looming out there. in may be that the fed wants to make sure that policy is set on an understandable and certain course, so if there is a transition to a new chair, that
the balance sheet adjustments will already have been laid out, and thus, you don't lay in the lap of a new chair, they need to come up with a balance sheet adjustment policy. now, we don't know whether chair yellen will be reappointed. i think it would be great for the country if she were, but that is probably that is something that is affecting their decision. vonnie: that was former fed governor daniel tarullo in an exclusive bloomberg interview, mark. mark: coming up, opec cuts for oil are still on the table at the opec meeting. remain below $50 a barrel. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i mark barton with vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: time for our quick takes we provide background on issues of interest. we are looking at venezuela, an oil-risk nation on the brink of civil war. minutes limit is a country in chaos. for months, the capital has been rocked by near daily clashes between protesters and police as the president clings to power. faced with reduced oil prices, the country has been plagued with shortages of everything from phillipe for, antibiotic, and food. that is on top of a triple digit rate of inflation, crime, and allegations of rapid corruption. they have called for constituent assembly with the power to rewrite oh the constitution. they say a new constitution would bring peace to venezuela, but opponents say they will delay holding elections. united states has warned of
strong action if the new constitution is passed. nejra, -- meanwhile, their oil business has continued to collapse. hyperinflation has been appearing. -- thedecessors predecessor was elected president in 1988 and revolutionize venezuelan politics with anti-u.s. rhetoric . economy's capacity to produce anything but oil. he used his support to transform a democracy into a largely authoritative system. unlike chavez, when guerrero has struggled for popularity. his critics argued that he bungled management of the country. those were skeptical of the opposition pointed out that he made off with a dozen parties ranging from marxism to center
right and is no single plan, nor --or a door a mandate n mandate -- nor a mandate. in a recent poll, 57% of respondents said they still hold -- in high regard. minutesread more about limit on the bloomberg. mark: venezuela is a member of opec. there was a meeting in russia today. recommitting, giving the green light. minister spoke to bloomberg about the possibility of extended supply cuts. ask any minister this question, everybody over spawned, yes there ready to isiew, but the key question
should the decision be made now, or a later date when we had more data and more details as to how the markets --as to how the market is performing? at this point, we have discussed and decided to recommend that all the ministers put an option on the table, think about the option in case it is needed in the future to rebalance the market. mark: is saudi arabia pledged for deep cuts to exports enough to appease? do they want a deeper supply cuts? some sort of cap on the supply of libya and nigeria? you hit the nail on the head there. the key supplier in this equation. it is not just their commitment
to the cuts. there taken a leadership roll that they will not just comply 100%, but go above the call of duty, and continue to be over compliant. they will continue to be over compliant. the key points are they will ask everybody else who have nothing pulling their weight to change that. they will not take it easy anymore on some of the less compliant countries. that will change. that is implications on the road ahead in terms of the pace of rebalancing. but no surprises have been delivered here. they look at compliance, and they also looked at the rebalancing process, and they're satisfied with the pace of that. they don't see a need at the moment. they're operating in very real time. not at the moment they need for further cuts from anybody. so wait and see, second half. supply is going to come down and will get adjusted fairly quickly.
if that does not happen, everything is on the table. vonnie: the scenario you are painting, effectively one million barrels a day less than it was a year ago. that is quiet a substantial cut -- that is haidi a substantial -- q -- that isuite that is quite a substantial cut. >> what the saudi are doing is saying they are working within the confines of their pledge. does the couple of hours ago, the industry -- the energy minister said there is no surprise from the saudi side enable push onwards, taking a leadership rolling within the opec-not opec nations. ways of exploring new measuring market activity, including not just monitoring
production, but taking more into consideration export data. they will be able to gauge at how these global oil flows are faring. the saudi position are fundamental. have to see how the data shapes up beyond august. we started with the premise that nigeria and libya, that are both exempt from cutting, will be allowed to increase output to their target levels. here is the question -- global struggle to actually achieve those targets and levels? is that the belief by countries like saudi arabia? that is what they pointed to, the saudi energy minister. they do not expect a lot more upside as much as they wish libya nigeria would -- libby and nigeria would. is a sustained story out of the two nations, that
could lead to another conversation as it would be part of the conversation in terms of reviewing come and see how onryone is doing on anne -- an opec level. there is a question of how much they can grow from here? the barrels could actually not make that much of a difference. that is their view. analysts'ary to the view. mark: great job. you have had a busy day today. let's turn to policies are day blow to the ruling party of poland. partsesident be telling of an overhaul sparking week of protests. poland, the largest beneficiary of development funds from the e.u. come also face the threat of sanctions from the block.
was this a surprise that the president intervened? >> the president has really gone against the ruling party, which elected him and nominated him for the post. before becoming president, he was little he known -- he was not known. there is a lot to be rallied. it seems like this is the reaction to some of the pressure the european union has put on hold. vonnie: in the meantime, as all -- is happening, how is that impacting the economy? the polish government and the central bank don't mind the depreciation as it helps them contain inflation. they see this as part of a
strong economy story, with 4% growth. inflation below 2%. they are kiting pleased -- there quite please with that. itk: he be towed the part of -- he vetoed a part of it, but says: needs thorough reorganization. does this mean the ruling party will back down, or continue with their do attempt to control the judiciary? what is any for protest? >> those of the main questions. first of all, what is the ruling party going to do? decide how toto push forward with these things. there will be more judiciary reforms. they may be softer, but they will probably push onto the same way as the other ones, meaning trying to give politicians more
sway over the judiciary. in terms of the opposition-led protest, that is more of an unknown at the moment. --osition is due to the vonnie: really quick, when will the e.u. make a decision on sanctions? after all, poland is the largest beneficiary of the development fund. >> that's right. that is a stark warning that the european commission gave: last week, was --that is a stark warning of the european commission gave last week. on wednesday, the european union is set to decide whether it will go ahead with an frequent procedures, which can lead to sanctions. mark: great to see you in the flesh. still ahead, alphabet kicks off tech earnings after the bell.
♪ vonnie: live from new york and london, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: and i mark barton. this is "bloomberg markets." apple but -- alphabet kicking off tech earnings. wasn't the easiest second quarter for alphabet. -- what canhat we we expect from the numbers? caroline hyde is here. completely disastrous quarter when you are looking at it. many big brand saying, i don't want to be on your youtube and to you make it say because i'm worried about being associated with it. but revenue up 19%.
we have seen analysts bring down overall earnings. -30% or so. -- 30% or so. more people plow money into that area. but the cloud business continues to grow. they have been pushing in that area. google play has been doing very well as other areas like the hardware aspect. this is a company that continues to shine on. what is interesting is we could see more growth in mobile. -- 7% of their revenue was mobile. vonnie: still concerns about the repertory issues. fines can google still be on the hook for? caroline: that is the question that many analysts will be getting on the phone with the
cfo later today and ask. what happened with the e.u., the record-breaking fine of two -- 2.8 billion eurozone. this fine was targeted. shopping feature that they want to change. there will be questions about how they are going to change it. the e.u. left in google's hands as to better the service. indeed, where else could this go? are we going to see regulatory inquiries into travel, for example? has google been out to basically allow its own particular services to rise to the top of your searches, rather than those of rivals? many think they had a case there. this is open to pandora's box, wondering how costly it can get? mark: any excuse to bring up a an hour -- any sister bring up
anr -- any excuse to bring up anr? caroline: there is not one single, sell on your chart -- there is not one single cell on your chart at the moment. look at that share price. above theprice target yellow line on your screen, which is currently the share price. the share prices near record highs. near 1% of the record highs. this is a couple worth $670 billion. we areuropean equities, 34 minutes away from the end of the session. this is bloomberg. ♪
"bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: top stories from the bloomberg and around the world. u.s. president -- is u.s. president donald trump about to poke a hole in equities? is changing and the warning signs are rising. u.k. trade secretary is in the u.s. to push for a quick trade deal once brexit is finalized. however, some big barriers may stand in the way. we will look at what could hamper negotiations. and in banking, checking the bar high for its swiss rival. we will hear from the chief executive. following a big earnings report today.