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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  July 26, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." mark: the other top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. a more dovish tone, and what will the fomc mean for the dollar? fires a warning to the u.s. over potential russia sanctions? energy companies could be caught in the middle. we vonnie: mcdonald's chief executive is live in just a few seconds, from earnings to the new delivery service, we will get the latest update from under the golden arch. nothing solves the fast food chain's problems like your customers.
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number one priority since becoming ceo in 2015 has been getting more people through the doors. finally happening, same-store sales are searching. without yesterday may donald's shares hit a record -- mcdonald's shares hit a record. >> thanks very much. i'm here with the mcdonald's ceo. good morning to you. >> good morning. yourr almost two years stated mission was to become a quote, modern, progressive burger company. a few minutes ago you drop that motto. that's says something about the findings in your consumer research and how you apply that to the company strategy. what does that say? >> i think it means i spend too much time trying to explain what modern, progressive meant for the more colloquial is to become a more progressive mcdonald's. i find people kind of get that narrative a little easier. >> is that to say you're no longer as interested in being
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progressive? >> is driven by the cultural change were going through. the pace of change in the world is only going to increase. we need to have more agility, that's something we interviewed across our teams and around the world. it's begun to pay off. more customers are visiting more often. that's the ultimate measure. >> you said yesterday, in fact, direct quote, are most important priority remains increasing discounts. -- guest counts. your research holds the answer. i would like you to rank in order of importance these things, all guests want some of. cheaper food, healthier ingredients, tastier food, and better experience. what's more important? >> experience is key and part of
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the elements of that is speed as well. one of the things we will never get a pass on his value and speed. that's a fundamental part of our dna. customers are getting ever more demanding. they want to see us respond to the things that matter on their agenda. food quality is one of them. we can investing in fresh beef, quarter pounder -- we've been investing fresh beef. when we invest in things that matter to customers, they respond positively. erik: at the top it is which, speed or value? >steve: you can't pick one. erik: what comes after that? steve: increasingly consumers are expecting a great experience. they love our core traditional
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menu. we are continuing to invest in the engine room of our restaurants and kitchens. as technology improves, we are able to capture those orders and prepare food hotter and fresher and customers really do enjoy that. erik: those are the things in your control. there are some angst not in your control, the economy -- things not individual, the economy. which variable to you find, whether it's gdp growth, gas prices, consumer confidence -- which is most directly correlated to the number of people coming in the door? steve: we see consumer confidence is the ultimate barometer. many of those other aspects feed into it. how much it costs to fill up their car, they are all contributors to the company. erik: is it predictive or does it lag? steve: there are different ways you can gauge the consumer.
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erik: you see consumer confidence rising. does that portend a higher guest count? steve: up until we've lunch delivery, which i'm sure we will chat about, as we did customers out and about. if they have money in their pockets, they are going out to the theater, going out shopping, and we benefit from that activity. strong economic activity from the consumer does play into immediate success as well. erik: you mentioned moments ago the importance of taking risk. is mcdelivery a risk? steve: there's two elements to that great and we have these conversations within our teams. if we are talking about testing, whether customers like who delivered to them at home, we don't need to test out. we can see the way society is developing. what we want to get right is make sure the food that we deliver at home is at the quality and standard that the customer expects.
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erik: where are the biggest risks you are taking? steve: when you have a business like ours, when you try and accelerate that, you want to make sure the restaurant level executions days 100%. when you're reinvesting and dining areas -- there's a lot of change for the restaurants to absorb, and getting that customer facing fusion of that right day in and day out is the biggest challenge great we have to because the world is as well. erik: when you make decisions like switching to fresh before taking hormones out of the poultry supply, to what degree are you responding to actual demand for higher quality ingredients to anticipating such based on consumer research or making those kinds of choices for altruistic reasons, like the health of your customers? steve: there was definitely a
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combination of all three. we have seen time and time again when we invest on the customer's agenda, they respond well. it doesn't mean they want to pay more. they truly appreciate it. if we go to the supermarkets, they typically have to pay more for that. we are more democratic, we are affordable for everyone. erik: whether it's cage free bigs or hormone free chicken, you are well aware the choices the mcdonald's makes has an enormous impact on the food supply. what is the next frontier? we're one of the things in the early stages of, we're part of a global roundtable. chain is one of the most environmentally intensive, and clearly, we want to be doing business and make a positive contribution on the world. how can we set up a definition of sustainable beef, for example? that goes from the ranches and farms around the world, how they
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care for their cattle all the way through the supply chain. with more mouths to feed in a year's time, and for us to be a strong, business, we have to be a responsible customer of agriculture. erik: what does that mean specifically? would you switch to organic? limited by the current agricultural standards and practices. interestingly, to use a real-life example, i was told that after we made our commitments to move to cage free bigs, more than 400 of the restaurant business is made a commitment in the four weeks following that. we can have an influence. we have to work with the farmers as they transition. we've signaled we want to be a positive contributor to agriculture in the long-term. erik: how do you do it, if it's
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not necessarily grass fed or organic, though i imagine those are one of the couple of things under consideration. what makes the beef supply more sustainable? steve: because of our size and scale we have the best supply chain in the world. we are encouraging them to explore these opportunities. day in and day out, customers care about great quality food and that's what we're focused on. erik: why is it so challenging to make the transition to fresh beef? the wayou can start all from, whether you want to start , you needupply side more chiller space and less freezer space. handling of the food has to be
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different. ultimately, we recognize all of the customer said, this is .uicier, tastier our job is to solve the operational challenges the deliver what the customer is asking for. chipotle found out what it's like to get the supply chain run. are you concerned? are you mindful of their experience when working on something as challenging as fresh beef? ever: we have been mindful since 1955. we had 60 odd million customers a day. the absolute number one priority for us is safety. erik: liver costs had an impact on your margin last year. how much of a challenge is wage inflation for you? steve: we both feel it because we run restaurants.
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they feel it on the front line. looking for hiring the best talent in part of what we're working on is how do we retain that talent? pay is important, so its development opportunities. we go for educational support, what we call the archways for opportunity program. english-language lessons, welege tuition support, think part of the entire employment proposition is pay, yes, fundamentally important, but also the broader role we play as a responsible employer. erik: as immigration policy had an impact on wage inflation yet? steve: as we are doing the business and serving more customers, we are looking to hire more people. we're in the marketplace.
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you are looking to build our workforces around the country. erik: mcdelivery, how will you know whether that successful? what is the marker you need to see? it's about customer response. not just in terms of sales or numbers, but customer satisfaction. we know the satisfaction rates of mcdonald's customers are at a .igher level than across their we know we are off to a good start but we know we have a lot to improve on. we can improve our packaging, the understanding of journey times from restaurant to home. do we do that with a one and a half mile radius or two mile radius? erik: don't you need to see a certain level of upticks to know if it's successful? steve: if we serve one more person, that's a good start. if we serve to more people, that's a good start.
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we know consumers are eating food delivered at home. therefore, it's not creating any additional capital investment, .o greater dna is a corporation we're working our existing restaurants harder, which is fantastic. let me give you a couple of interesting facts straight 60% of the business that we are seeing is evening and late-night. time in the restaurant is typically quieter. we are not just working the asset and getting more benefit out of our existing restaurant. with investments already being made, the food there is ready to be prepared. the majority is incremental business. erik: thank you for joining us at bloomberg. steve easterbrook, ceo of mcdonald's. vonnie: bloomberg's erik schatzker, thank you for that. still ahead, before the fed decision, will be dollar
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continue its slump? the dollar already down 8%.
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mark: let's check european markets. we are awaiting the fed decision, stocks arising. that's a currency board, bonds, commodities. one additional you this chart. -- wanted to show you this chart. a strong macro environment, higher inflation, and relatively low analyst expectations make a compelling case for european value stocks, the words of
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sanford city, bernstein. as you can see, it's outperforming the s&p and the msci emerging markets. on the subject of emerging markets, this is interesting because traders are piling into this etf, tracking emerging markets. poised for msci etf its longest streak of monthly almost $2.4hering billion since march. keep an eye on that after the decision little bit later. vonnie: i will, mark. thank you for the advice, let you know tomorrow morning. that fed are awaiting decision mark talked about at 2:00 p.m. eastern, 7 p.m. london time and joining us with a look at what impacts today's announcements could have on market is ahead of research at credit agricole.
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immediate question is, what happens to the u.s. dollar post the statements given it's already on a downward to check three the last few weeks? >> holding a small, bullish bias on the dollar going into the meeting, on the whole the dollar could emerge, support it against currencies like the japanese yen, the swiss franc, in the wake of the fed announcement. couple of changes that could potentially come in the and bring those changes more clarity, it will bring more clarity about the prospect for unwinding the fed's balance sheet. this much could then be reflected in higher treasury yields and the stronger dollar against the japanese yen, the swiss franc. vonnie: what kind of clarity is the market looking for? exact amounts or exact states? >> is more about the timing of this.
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following to yellen's testimony early in the month, quite a few clouds already expecting relatively soon as the phrase may feature in the statements. i think the fed may go even further than that. we could be having a reference to the next you months as compared to later in the year, which was the reference used in june. this much could push us higher in terms of treasury yields, they could help the dollar against the low yield situation and the swiss franc. you're expecting 118 in 6 months. when is the highest double since 2015? more muted upside. why is that? >> key role there will be played appetite for further currency appreciation by implication, tightening in the financial conditions in the eurozone, the way we came up with those levels, we're trying to answer the question, what is the level that can be tolerated by the governing council before
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they engage the more vocal intervention, verbal intervention in the currency. if you think in terms of levels, if you were to stay where we are, and finish the year where we are, that alone could give us 15% of appreciation year on year which will have significant negative impact on the inflation outlook for the ecb. anything further than that could cause a lot of discomfort trade from that point of view, the levels we have in mind, not far from where we are at the moment, but these are the levels the ecb could live with. further down the road the appreciation will come on the back of what we call inevitable qe taper, and the euro trend that will come with it. vonnie: let's talk about the u.k. balance. ofable slowdown leaves bank england hawks grounded. our the hawks within the npc, the wins clicked?
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valentin: in a way you could argue next week's inflation reports will highlight the supports have dropped a bit, have weakened. in other words, how they may be less likely to be joining the hawks anytime soon. that said, you could still make the case if the economy holds up relatively well, close to current levels, and indeed inflation remains an issue. there is still the incentive for at least some part of the extraordinary stimulus to be added in the immediate aftermath of the eu referendum. even if they do not hike in august, chances are the hike may increase going into year-end and early next year. it's not completely off the table, but going into next week i think that clearly the bank of england will keep all its , no hikeelatively open on the table and at the same time they will continue to monitor the situation, really
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willing to support the economy if needed. vonnie: what's your target relative to the euro and the u.s. dollar? valentin: at the moment, at least against the euro, we will continue to trade at a slight discount. we have 90 of the level going into er entry, not far from where we are at the moment rate at the same time we expect the pound to continue to track the euro higher against the dollar, especially over longer-term that should become more apparent, extended recent cover he and closer to what we estimate to be longer-term value. 138 byave cable that's the end of next year. an important assumption we're making is that the risks of brexit will be ultimately avoided, and that's consistent with that particular fair value if that risk were to materialize, a trajectory will be somewhat different.
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mark: a sexy cross balance. one can make some money. we think that cap has run a bit ahead of itself. a hedge against oil. i do see what the price action is at the moment. not sure if the gains will be sustained. these aree time, higher proxies for the euro. they tend to outperform the euro. both should do relatively well. they are still targeting. a pretty decent range rate as well. mark: thanks for joining us. be sure to catch our speical report, the fed decides, 2:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: 2015, check out the currency market. small uptick from the prior quarter, sterling is up against the dollar head of the big fed decision. that's what were waiting for, a couple hours away. and in the bond market today, we saw bond yields rise yesterday. there was a real propensity towards riskier assets yesterday, yields declining as we approach the european close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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...on the hotel you want. go on, try something fresh. tripadvisor. the latest reviews. the lowest prices. mark: live from london and new york, this is the european close. stocks finishing at a session high, helped her lower today. up her a second day.
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over a week tomorrow, european companies worth more than $3 trillion, set to report results. -- therest called it have been some earnings today, driving the benchmark her. still 77 below the record from april 2015. one of the earnings i'm focusing on today, carmakers with daimler among the companies releasing earnings. boost in sales of new, more 3000 --e cars, which is revenue advance, stronger than estimated 5%. the chief executive counting on you modeled international expansion, the acquisition of gm's european business to boost results. shares of by 3.3%. today uk gdp growing a bit.
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.3%. ons, which produces the figures, say economy experience, quote, notable slowdown in the first half, growth and buy services which rose. it was the sole contributor. economy postthe brexit seems to have dissipated. haven't been sustained into the second half of 2017. keeping an eye on copper, reaching levels unseen since may 2015, on expectations demand in china, we will feel a global shortage plan in the country to curb rates, reinforcing the bullish outlook. economists have become more upbeat about the trajectory of china's economy with concerns over tightening, liquidity, and the world's top easing. wonderful chart, just glancing
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up the commodity index. here, energy down by 19%. 4.5%.lture down by industrial metal, precious metals of wi-fi .8%. copper pretty much contributing to the sector leading performance within the world of the bloomberg commodity index. vonnie: here, it's the same old story for the vix index, below 9 at one point earlier on in the session. also was below 94. mentioned, weou can bypass that and were seeing a bit of a move today in crude oil futures, 48.49 a barrel. global macro gnn, movers.
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for the most part, we're seeing stronger equity markets. in south africa as well. i noticed the lira as well as 355, it's interesting to keep an eye on movement in turkey. argentina's bonds seem to be trading nicely. i think it's more or less covered most other movers trade everything is in wait and see mode before the fomc statement at 2:00 p.m. has the rundown. abigail: we're in the heart of earnings season at this point. here's a look at some of today's big winners. shares of it by 5%. the company put up a surprise
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profit, posting two cents on a 5% revenue gain. really some strength there. turnaround is underway. there is some question about valuation, negative on valuation. texas instruments, nice share their. shares up 1.9%. isks like the strength there coming from chip use within cars. were .7%, onhares pace for the best day since 2009. investors really seeming to like that. let's turn to stop staring less well. coca-colarting to -- did beat on cost cutting, a feather in the cap for the new ceo great investor seeming to like that now with the shares of modestly. he says it's very backward looking, and then wynn resorts
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down for .6% after the company missed earnings estimates for what is really dragging down shares is the fact that gaming revenue posted sequential decline. shares really giving up some, but on the year still up in a big way. and finally from a macro standpoint, we have the s&p 500 at an all-time high. this is pretty interesting in terms of discrepancy. g #btv4027. in blue we have the s&p 500 past trailing 12 month earnings estimate, back in 2014 it was to vonnie,se, $113.55, now it's less than that and we have stocks all-time highs. perhaps something has to give at some point. vonnie: we might even see it later on today. abigail doolittle, thank you. you heard abigail say that some of the big earnings have come
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out but we also get some big ones today. facebook, amazon tomorrow and apple is next week. mike regan, senior editor for markets live. michael, characterize earnings season so far. look athing highly to during the earnings season is actually what groups of stocks are doing the best. aton't necessarily just look the numbers, but what's doing the best. one thing that really sticks out to me is stocks with high international exposure, stock split get half or more of their overseasand sales from , or really leading the way in that earnings season trade the high international sales exposure stocks are up more than 4%. the high domestic sales are pretty flat for the moment. that has a lot to do with the
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currency markets, the weak dollar. aboutlly is as much expectations for future earning seasons as it is for this one, that weaker dollar benefiting these multinational, sort of where the main domestic focus of these, especially small caps, their earnings season is not performing as well as stocks, underperforming a bit. vonnie: the global process we is seeing, 10.1% or 10.2%, that mostly q2 currency, when you say -- due to currency, or is that being unfair to the company? >> the dollar has been weakening all year. it's really extenuating even since the earnings season, reporting period, second quarter close. i think the market is looking ahead. earningsy to see this growth traded happy to see this sales growth, sales of 3.5%. an upside surprise there and an upside surprise for earnings, a little bit bigger than usual.
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the earnings season is helping. the currency markets really seem to be in the driving seat for the equity market right now. mark: looking at our wonderful ea function, 55% of companies surprising to the upside here which is a bit of a lower trajectory than your 75 in the u .s. this is the euro stocks 50, msci, old country world index. right now it's liking by the most in nine months straight the flipside of what you would say about the weak dollar is the strong euro. does that reflect the euro's strength in recent months? what does that tell us about the trajectory of earnings in this quarter and coming quarter, for european companies who have to live with this stronger euro almost at its highest level since january 2015? >> i think you are right that the strong euro if the entire story for the european stock market. it's interesting because in the u.s. earlier this year, it was
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almost a consensus trade among u.s. based investors besides go long, europe. the earnings outlook is brighter. surprises are this good in europe. growth -- i'm not sure american investors are too disappointed. european investors might be disappointed but if you look at the full return of the stoxx 600 in dollar terms, it's almost 20% this year, factoring in that euro appreciation. that euro appreciation was part of the bullish case for u.s. investors in europe. 20% total return so far this year, on the side of the pond, the americans who went long europe are pretty satisfied with it. vonnie: i do want to point out that 170 of 500 companies in the s&p 500 have reported. we have a long way to go. our thanks to the senior editor of bloomberg markets. let's check in on the first word news, courtney donohoe. courtney: the u.s. senate will
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consider more proposals to repeal obamacare today. senators rejected majority leader mitch mcconnell's plan last night. it came after the start of several days of debate aboard -- over how to script the affordable care act. scrap the affordable care act. britain's chancellor philip hammond, first the u.k. and other members must agree that they made progress on issues such a citizen's rights. the eu is looking at an october summit as the earliest opportunity for such a decision. in other news, palestinians are threatening a day of rage on friday after israel removed metal detectors from the temple mount compound. they will replace them with other technologies. control of the temple has been a force of prolonged violence between israelis and palestinians. in venezuela, president nicolas maduro showing few signs of
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backing down from the move to increase his power on sunday there will be a vote to elect supporters to rewrite the constitution. opponents have called a general strike today. venezuelans have been stocking up on food and water. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. ♪ the health or up, debate gives washington busy. according to president donald tomp's agenda, the warning -- we examine the likelihood the eu will retaliate. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: live from london and new york, i mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." turning back to health care, senate republicans face more upheaval as they embark on repealing the affordable care act. op successfully mustered a 50 votes to pass any kind of house built? standing by is bloomberg's national political reporter. there's due to be a rollcall vote in the senate at 11:30 today, basically waiting the budget act so the vpo can go through. any word on what's happening? >> what they are planning on voting on, just at this hour, after an initial procedural vote, a bill that's very similar to the 2015 bill the senate republicans passed and barack obama vetoed. it would hollow out subsidies
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and coverage funding for medicaid, and a limited the coverage expansion under the affordable care act. it would also eliminate taxes. it would not have any kind of replacement in place. this is one thing the conservative members had demanded. it's one of the reasons he was one of the deciding votes, to move to begin debate on health care. that's what we will be voting on now. there are lots of republican senators who are uncomfortable with the idea. this for those of us on side of the pond who've never experienced what you call voterama, just explain to us what it is and what good is going to come out of it, if you're looking for some sort of repeal or repeal and replace, or some sort of replacement? rama, all it means is once you begin debate on a budget resolution, which republicans used to debate health care, anybody can offer as many amendments as they want. you can have dozens, hundreds,
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thousands straight there's no limit to how many amendments can be offered. it usually means late-night hours. these things can go overnight where members are voting between the hours of eight p.m. and 8:00 a.m. with no real break. it means this could drag out for a very long time. the process in the senate where people can offer as many amendments as they want. vonnie: the vote yesterday was to allow debate. we have 20 hours of free legislative debate. when does that really begin? pretty much for show because a lot the real talk probably happens not in the senate chamber. when does it begin? >> is a couple of votes today, this vote to do the clean repeal of the affordable care act. later today there will be a vote by democrats, known as a motion to recommit, essentially saying let's hit stop and send this bill back to committee to work
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and to put some -- to actually crafted and do something through normal order. after that is when the voterama begins. tomorrow afternoon, evening, night, potentially into the morning is when the voterama in which all these amendments can be offered, is likely to happen. vonnie: i would recommend getting some sleep tonight. thank you. that's our national political reporter there. mark: let's switch over to russia and u.s. tensions right now, the european union delivered a stern warning to the u.s. should it moved to strengthen sanctions against russia unilaterally. let's bring in bloomberg news' joe haden joining us from brussels. how could the eu retaliate? expect, theyht didn't specify. they haven't specified yet how they will retaliate, what
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measures they might take. part of this is because we are in a kind of unique situation here where the u.s. is moving against the eu. the eu is caught in the crossfire of the anti-russia sentiment going back and forth in washington over there. they have just said they are going to look at it and be ready to act quickly if the bill goes through the way it looks like now. in the meantime, they are doing the diplomatic thing and the back channels to try to make sure the eu's point of view is taken into account in the legislation. vonnie: is there a little bit of hypocrisy on the part of the eu? it's because of money interests that it's having these problems. bp operation that might be put in jeopardy. i don't know if i call it hypocrisy but this whole thing is very complicated. the relationship with russia on the part of the eu as well as
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the u.s. is very complex, there's lots of arms to it. this is just one of them. the eu is trying to make sure its companies, the energy companies involved in these russian gas pipeline operations are not impacted by legislation that really doesn't have to do with them. the u.s. is trying to talk to russia here very strongly, and the eu is just kind of collateral damage in the middle. mark: you mentioned russia. how might russia retaliate, and does this signal an all-time low in relations between russia and the united states? trump's endeavor to improve relations with russia is taking another hit here. but russia has come out and said lining up political and economic sanctions in retaliation, the
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u.s. move your. they've already said very strongly what they plan. the eu issued a strongly worded statement but it doesn't have many details. thanks for bringing us details about this developing story. . now time for the bloomberg business flash. new figures indicating the u.s. housing market is stabilizing amid 10 year highs, sales of new single-family homes growth of 1/10 of 1%. slightly less than expected, the median sales i fell 3.4% earlier . mercedes-benz studying a legal separation of its businesses. has been looking for its unit to become more nimble. it's one of the biggest data
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breaches in europe ever, italy's unit credit says hackers accessed about 400 bank accounts. the breach occurred twice, including as recently as this month great hackers were able to obtain customer data. that's the latest bloomberg business flash. euro areanext, inflation versus market m&a activity. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: time for our global battle of the charts. we look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. you can always access these charts on bloomberg by running the function featured at the bottom of your screen. kicking things off in new york city -- >> the reason i wanted to bring
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you to this chart is because there's been a lot of talk over the year about how global sales volumes have been down flat. while that may be true, there's only one point for chile dollars worth of deals announced this year. you can see from the stocks, the independent investment banks, there's a bit of optimism in deal making. uncertaintiesof about tax rates and other political uncertainties in europe and abroad. here you can see when earnings were reported yesterday that the stock time to what was an intraday high. that was because their deal volumes had been up, including for the bigger, large-scale deals we had not been seeing across the board. tomorrow, this is also pertinent. you will see what those two lines look up here. we can find it at g #7412. vonnie: i guess i should say brava. mark, take it away. mark: five years ago today mario
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draghi, he will do whatever it takes, that famous speech. is like a bumblebee. this is a mystery of nature because it shouldn't fly, but instead it does. bumblebee's aside, the euro that back in 2012 faced an existential crisis, soaring bond yields, reflecting concerns, especially the likes of greece and spain and italy. five years on, the economy chugging along nicely thanks to qe, thanks to negative rates. we're even talking about normalization, less impressive in the five-year gap would be the implementation of structural reform. the other elephant in the room has been inflation. this,ion, remember headlining above 2%. corerch 2015 we were -.6% inflation. funny worth watching the blue line, stuck around 1%.
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the other two are measures of inflation. so, back to bumblebees, they are they cope through that floor with brute force. you better listen up, eurozone. g #btv, 7192. vonnie: thank you for reminding us of all of those fed statements. finaleve to say that just sent the battle of the charts today. it was really great. you analyze how the investment banks are doing. interesting. coming up and just 2 hours, the fomc relates its decision to :00 p.m. eastern. -- at 2:00 p.m. eastern.
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vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets." from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here at the headlines we are following. the fed decides, the statement just about two hours from now. on when the fed plans to start thinking that balance sheet. president donald trump's preoccupations with leaks and loyalty ar

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