tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg July 31, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories around the world we are following. it is an is a monday. -- m&a monday. help theable channel competition and feet and an evolving tv landscape. is the retaliation over? vladimir putin hope so as he ousts 755 u.s. staff from russia. the former u.s. ambassador at large for the former soviet union will be here. for investors act as shares fell, and we will take a deeper look later on. abigail doolittle is here with us. we are halfway into the trading day. what is going on?
abigail: we are looking at relatively small moves for the major averages. the dow and s&p 500 trading higher. nasdaq, down about 0.25%. we have a divergence between the dow and the nasdaq, which we had last week. here is the reason behind the weakness today for the nasdaq. facebook, amazon, netflix, and bet sharply lower. be digital ad space could saturated. all these companies have reported, both netflix and facebook with solid quarters. amazon and alphabet with somewhat mixed quarters. we have a chart on the bloomberg
that suggests this could be the case. this is g #btv 8432. it shows inflows to the upside of the red line, and outflows to the downside or bottom. last week, that was the biggest selling pressure we have seen all the way since november of 2007. oft was ahead of the events 2008 and 2009. that is not mean we will see some sort of crash, but it tells us investors are taking money cht of the cap sector -- te sector. apple reports tomorrow after the bell. this is a one-week chart. it has been bearish for apple. we had that declined after the market selloff sparked by volatility concerns. a lot of intraday selling last week on that. i believe it was wednesday or thursday. now it is tapering off.
investors are looking for apple to report 1.57. the big concern is that iphone 8 super cycle, some concern that it will be delayed. it will be very interesting to see what that brings tomorrow after the bell. vonnie: you will be here to tell us. thank you for that. discovery communications agrees to buy scopes network for $7.9 billion, combining networks such as animal planet and hd tv, to v, to adapte -- hgt to the changing television landscape. 34%he face of this, a value, is that the devaluation? tim: i think that is a good value. that gets scripts back up to where it was before concerns came into the industry three or
four years ago with cord cutting and volatility and advertising. this is about where these stocks were three or four years ago. p to aets scripps u normalized valuation. vonnie: is it a good combination? tvhave two unscripted networks coming together. is that the direction they should be going into or consolidating something you are already good at? tim: it is the latter. companiesolidating that are good at what they do. there is some sports angle that discovery has with euro. we are talking reality or pseudo-reality, factual documentary lifestyle program. ming. there could be cost savings is yours to be had with combining studios.
these are two businesses that do not have a sports resins in the u.s. and have been somewhat more exposed as cord cutting has unraveled. both companies mentioned on earnings today that cord cutting remains quite strong. discovery talked about it 3% decline in top-tier networks in the quarter. it is not getting any better. perhaps getting these networks together, perhaps you can consolidate your presence on those networks. vonnie: charter and at&t have grown. perhaps they have more leverage. would this give discovery, the combined company more leverage? tim: you would think the combined company having close to double the number of networks under one has to have more bargaining leverage. the question is how many such large deals are to be done. scripps has just come through some cost rationalization on one of those major consolidation.
i think it will make a difference over time. it is interesting to think about the future distribution of tv viewership for these companies. we are talking about digital viewership of content. it is not just the bundle, it is virtual or skinny bundles. neither company in the u.s. has been able to or try to establish a foothold in. vonnie: when regulators look at this, what is the primary concern? there are secondary effects of things such as upping the price for distributors which might be passed on to consumers. in my reading too much into this? tim: i don't anticipate revelatory concerns. -- regulatory concerns. you have eight or nine network groups that many would argue are quite weak right now. this gives them a better bargaining position. vonnie: is this enough?will they
be forced to do another deal? sprint and t-mobile are all out there. might one of those be the next deal for discovery's combination to do? tim: i won't put any names out there. the question is is it enough for these two players that have issues and questions as does everybody else in the industry, and they are relatively small companies compared to time warner or disney, does it really resolve the issue of making sure consumers are still paying for their pay-tv connection or if not there are support video options that can be monetized? is this good enough for these two companies to get together? i cannot see how it hurts. it should help. i'm not sure it makes them a powerhouse in the industry. vonnie: we all love reality tv.
it does not cost as much. you don't need to hire as many scriptwriters. we wonder if the trend will not change at some point. when it comes to home improvement and lifestyle, it seems that it might not. viewership is still high up there as well. vonnie: they are valuable when it comes to marketing advertising dollars. if this fails, what does lack on do now? tim: they were in discussions with viacom, and scripss went with discovery. that is a network group with a lot of channels. many of them are not being watched anymore. i think better ratings data is demonstrating that. a few core networks that are popular. they are kind of left with a base of content that is seeing
declining viewership. declining viewership means it is more difficult to get advertising dollars. they must find alternative ways to get distribution to monetize via advertising. vonnie: does this combined company get a little better? $90 takeout had a price. i guess you would call this neutral. vonnie: you won. tom nolan, ask for joining us today. here is mark crumpton. mark: after last week's failure to pass the republican health care bill, senator jeff flake of arizona spoke to bloomberg about the next step. >> what is over is an attempt to do it with just republican votes. we have reached the limit double the we can do with republican votes on health care now. mark: he acknowledged there are
limitations to what can be done on a partisan basis. he stressed health care is not going to end and it still needs to be fixed. vice president mike pence says the u.s. stands with the baltic nations against any threats from russia as tensions continue to rise between washington and moscow. the vice president made his first stop on a trip to eastern europe. reports of planned russian military drills in september simulated anast attack from the region. the chinese president says his military has the confidence and capability to strengthen his countries rise into a world power. he has pushed for a modernization program and that making the military a leaner force capable of projecting power overseas. deliberating the
federal securities fraud trial in former pharmaceutical ceo martin shkreli. the defense insists there were no victims as everyone got their original investment back and even made hefty profits. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thanks. coming up, after health care failed, the next focus now is tax reform. will washington get it right this time? we speak to tony sayegh next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i am vonnie quinn. two politics now, i will hand it over to my colleague, kevin cirilli who is with us in new york with the treasury department assistant secretary for public affairs. >> thank you. we are here with tony sayegh. tony: thank you. >> are you pivoting to tax reform? if so, what is the timetable? tony: we are in a strong position to get this done this year. last year, we were working on the framework for the legislation, agreeing on issues. we agreed tax reform is needed to stimulate sincere and large economic growth sustainable around 3% and massive shock
ration and repatriation of profits in this country to invest in businesses. when we have that type of agreement, we are ready to have the ways and means in the house and finance in the senate to begin working on this legislation. you have house numbers continuing the conversation with their constituents. cohntary mnuchin and gary have been meeting with 200 members of congress and grassroots is this leaders. we are prepared to advance quickly. >> one of the interesting things left that memo is that it out the order adjustment tax. you talked to house caucus members, representative jim jordan, he has some concerns about revenue neutrality. tony: we are focused on the program tax plan. when you focus on growing the economy at sustained 3%, we are talking about $2 trillion added to this economy over 10 years.
that is significant economic growth and what we're focused on. we have other ideas about broadening the base and having other aspects that will go towards paying for the tax. you have to include the fact that in syria, sweeping economic growth -- that sincere, sweeping thenomic growth will be centerpiece of this tax reform. >> looking at the stock market records you have been listing them it has been successful, no doubt about that. when you look at the dollar, that is where we have seen some movement whenever we have these palace intrigue stories coming public. what do you make of that? does it make it more difficult for you guys when these stories bubble over? tony: we have been confident for a long time we have a good doll -- dialogue between the administration and secretary
mnuchin, gary cohn, and our counterparts in the legislature. we will work on how we can get the tax reform through congress and get it done in a bill to be put on the president's desk & by the end of the year -- and signed by the end of the year. the market is going to appreciate the fact that we are focused on middle income tax cuts, small business tax cuts, simple find the code, doubling the standard deduction. these things will bring real relief to small businesses and middle income america. >> corporate tax cut, what ranger you looking at? tony: the president campaigned on 15%. there is momentum around that rate. this will go through capitol hill. we stand firm that lower is better. lower is actually going to
create the greatest growth. >> some reports that some advisors in the white house are touching for raising taxes on the wealthy to as much as 45%. is that true? tony: that is not part of the framework we are focused on now. we think lower taxes across the board. we are collapsing from seven brackets to three brackets, and we have set lower rates in each of those brackets, that is what we're focused on. sanctions, you are dealing with a ton of sanctions, venezuela as well. can we anticipate new sanctions with venezuela or north korea in the coming days? tony: the secretary has made it clear we are concerned about both those theaters. at treasury, we have strong tools in our arsenal vis-a-vis sanctions. when necessary, we will use them. >> we appreciate you coming on bloomberg. the man in the middle of tax
welcome. it has been a busy morning. comingdiscovery scripps through after a contested option. what is driving deals in this space in the u.s., and easy that coming into europe? william: there has certainly been pick up. we have seen quite a lot of growth in m&a in the mid-cap market. they're are looking for ways to consolidate each other and be able to compete more effectively with the big guys. softbank is a big guy. the question is, a big deal in the u.k., the question is will they go for something really big in the u.s. calledhe u.k. has been the dinner table of the world for m&a. this year we saw european m&a is
up about more than a third while u.k. deals are down. is this the new normal? william: i have not heard the u.k. called above they for m&a for m&a- a buffet before. it remains the largest m&a market for europe. contrasted with the rest of europe, volumes are down since the brexit vote. upay, m&a volumes in europe 18%. down that by percent in the u.k. that is really all about brexit. ruth: chinese firms, there seems to be more scrutiny on firms within china and globally. is that something banks like yourself have done a lot of deals with them and are reviewing that more closely? do you see chinese firms cutting
back on deals or selling assets they have acquired? william: lots to talk about their. last year we saw a big update in chinese outbound m&a across a range of sectors. the big syngenta transaction, this was a 2016 business. inhave seen a big drop-off 2017 in that deal activity. why is that? a number of reasons. it looks like they are being less active. that have exchange controls. a desire to see less currency exchanged overseas. just to give you a couple of asia-europethe cross-border m&a last year was up 20%. this year it is down 40%. you compare that with the u.s., in m&a seen a 50% uptick
volumes and u.s. companies by european companies. hits for the pipeline for the rest of the year? william: it is a good question. i am cautious. i look at record high valuations across many exchanges. backdrop a very liquid with the ongoing easing of monetary policy. you have got an uncertain outlook on interest rates. cautious around the second half, cautious as relates to markets. some of the core drivers of m&a are likely to be there, but i wonder whether volume might be slightly slower. ruth: do you think we have seen some of the biggest deals in europe or there is more to come? william: i don't know enough to speculate. we have seen a number of the transactions in europe this year. another interesting thing to say, of the 20 biggest deals in europe this year, only one was
buying a u.k. company. ruth: thank you so much. that is william vereker of ubs. thank you. william: thank you. vonnie: our thanks to bloomberg's ruth david. coming up, vladimir putin is retaliating against new american sanctions by ordering the u.s. to cut staff at its embassy in moscow and other facilities by nearly two thirds. we will have the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪
am vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." let's take a quick temperature of the markets. the dow jones industrial average is the winner, up for 10 severe percent. -- 4/10 of a percent. the nasdaq is lower today by a quarter of one percentage point. we will dig into the details and individual movers and a little bit. let's get the first word news from mark crumpton. mark: president trump says retired marine general john kelly will do a fantastic job as white house chief of staff. he was sworn in this morning. kelly replaces the embattled reince priebus. he reportedly will have one did, that priebus never the backing of the president's daughter and jared kushner. secretary of state rex tillerson calls russia and china the biggest economic enablers of north korea. jong ownsafter kim regime launched a second intercontinental ballistic
missile in the matter of weeks. tillerson wants the u.s. wants a peaceful resolution to the tensions. the top american general discussed a possible military response with his south korean counterpart. the qatar crisis is back to square one. the saudi led coalition has reinstated a list of 13 demands that must be met before talks to resolve the situation can start. it cuts diplomatic and transport links with qatar after the country backed extremist groups. in venezuela, the country says and election has given it a mandate to reshape the particle system. 8 million people voted to give a legislative body that gives the president maduro unprecedented power. critics called it a power grab and the u.s. is considering sections. global news 24 hours a day powered by 27 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries, i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: vladimir putin hopes
there will not be a need for further action after his government ordered the u.s. cut staff at its embassy in moscow and other facilities in russia by 755. that was in retaliation for new sanctions approved by congress last week. let's head to moscow are henry mayer has the latest. believesk that putin that he showed a very robust response to the sanctions that were passed. he is probably also calculating that the u.s. administration wants it response to this -- won't respond to this. he said that in a television interview broadcast yesterday. russia would not take any further measures and they hope that they would draw a line over this. i do not think that there is going to be a reversal of this step. it's a sweeping decision. the numbers, of course, are huge. has made the
calculation that the relationship with the united states is not going to get any better. underlly has lost hope the administration of donald theirthat the relationship could be improved. putin has made the calculation that the u.s. won't respond, but if it does, russia has pledged to match further expulsion of russia diplomats from the u.s. as, you could get into situation where you have a spiral of these retaliatory measures. it is a risk. vonnie: that was henry meyer in moscow. i want to bring in the former u.s. ambassador at large for the soviet union and a senior fellow at the council of foreign relations and professor at: ba university in new york city. he joins us now from washington, d.c. an investor at-large met that you were based in washington and dealing diplomatically with russia, right?
stephen: that's exactly right. this is off the wire and suddenly there was a call for 750 or so diplomats to go home. how would you react to that? is that major news? stephen: oh, absolutely. this will have a big effect on the way in which the u.s. embassy in moscow and consulates in other cities in russia do business. the main effect immediately will be on russian staff, but it will be hard to keep the numbers working without having a reduction in american staff. that will mean choices about what the u.s. embassy can do -- visas, public outreach, not just spying on the other country, which is part of what got this started, of course. vonnie: to whose advantage does this work more or disadvantage even? it would seem like there would
be a lot less traveled back and forth and relationships will deteriorate necessarily. there will be a lot less talking and things will be more difficult to do. in his interest is it to do this? stephen: there won't necessarily be less talking between the governments, although the mood will be a lot worse. diplomats andhe the officials from each capital in contact with each other, but the atmosphere will be very different. putin had the opportunity to react slowly, carefully, and a kind of commensurate way with the actions taken by the obama administration last december. he chose instead to do something bigger. that tends to be his style. he wanted to send a really strong message and he has done that. the result is that it will be harder for both sides to dig out. vonnie: russia's deputy foreign minister was on sunday and he
said the response over the sanctions bill was just about right. let's have a listen. >> this retaliation is long, long overdue. if the u.s. side decides to move further toward further deterioration, we will answer. we will respond in kind. we will mirror this. we will retaliate. vonnie: what does that mean former ambassador? what more can russia do short of getting into something more than a war of words? stephen: well, there's the question of each side's lament it presents -- diplomatic presence, but there's the relationship between the two sides. the efforts of president trump and president couldn't are just -- putin are interested are less happening.e you have less likelihood that the russians are going to stand
down in ukraine. you have less likelihood of cooperation by the russians over north korea. ambassador, what would you advise the current president to do if you are still acting as ambassador at large and washington, d.c.? stephen: on the question of the diplomatic presence, the u.s. has to react in some way. this is a much bigger constraint on american activity in russia than what was done by the obama administration toward russian activities here. it doesn't have to be loud. it doesn't have to be conspicuous in this way. the u.s. can slowly make it more difficult for russian diplomats to be assigned here, for example. the broader question for the president has much to do with his control and credibility in dealing with russia here in washington.
the reason he was unable to get the sanctions bill held off was because the congress doesn't trust him. they wanted to indicate that they are going to have a say in whether there is sanctions relief. the president could have tried to head that off as saying no, no, no. he is not going to do anything for free for putin. he is not going to show special friendship that isn't reciprocated, but he doesn't have that credibility now. the big problem for trump is that he has lost control over russia policy. that is a much more serious problem for him and how many people work in the embassy in moscow. thate: what about the idea there is a whole different makeup of staff now, including general john kelly as chief of staff? might that have any kind of bearing on u.s.-russia ties? stephen: some, but you have got to remember that you already had the secretary of state, rex
tillerson, and the secretary of defense, jim mattis, taking a pretty strong position toward russia. and that did not buy the administration a lot of credibility with the congress. the problem is that the president constantly undercuts his own cabinet officers. i think the question of whether or not a new chief of staff can change that situation is something we will have to see. vonnie: very great thanks to novich, former ambassador at large to the soviet union. he is also a professor at columbia university in new york. snape could be staging a disappearing act from the holdings of early investors. shares falling as the lockout period ends. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: this is bloomberg am vonnie quinn . iposnap stock below its price and it seemed like the carnage will get much worse as the stock was down 5% as the series us lockups expired. let's bring in abigail doolittle. is it surprising that the shares are not down more with the potential flood of sellers and supply coming out? abigail: to some degree it is because we have all those insiders who have the ability to sell. it's not known how many shares it is, but it could be 400
million. what this may tell us is the idea that some of those insiders think the stock is worth more than roughly $14 a share or that they do not want to sell under the limelight of this. some are actually kind of bullish. g #btv 8401,t th we see that the stock was down 50%. can you believe that between the ipo and the first locked up in that box? six months later, the stock was actually up 49%, so a big recovery. the auction strategist over at m k m says you want to buy the call on snap. he says he sees something similar here using this president. you may think that snap is not facebook. let's take a look at yelp and he's making a similar case there. 8422.s g #btv in that blue box of yelp, we see
the stock was all over the place with lots of volatility after the ipo. look at that, vonnie. up nearly 700% from the ipo price. then dipping way down back to the ipo price, but doubling since then. perhaps both facebook and you provide some president -- yelp provides some precedent of recovery for snap ahead. vonnie: it's really anyone's guess. the fact that there are bullish people on snap make you think. you have to go back to where facebook had dipped. they did have a strategy that seemed reasonable at the time because a lot of people say snap doesn't. abigail: that's a great point and we will get a good look at that on august 10 when they report their quarter at that time and we will see whether or not they hit the estimate. the estimates are pretty low. 8430, this is#btv the view that we have right now of snap relative to the technicals. it is from the ipo and we see that downtrend with the sellers in charge. thatchannel may suggest
buyers are going to come in and support the stock perhaps back up to the ipo price up. here. maybe they will present some upside in the upcoming quarter on august 10. vonnie: we will wait. the dog days of august will not be so dogged if we have snap to look forward to. for more on snap, i want to bring in sarah frier. a lot of comparisons he made after the stock was released after lockup with the case of facebook and yelp and other tech ipos. is this comparable? sarah: i mean, this is a company that is coming to the public and they are in a very different position than facebook was. facebook was really the social network ipo and now there are more. snap is going into the market and a time where digital advertising is an area they really need to create a
comfortable position in. it's dominated by google and facebook. it's digital growth for them, but the stock is. very near to its all-time lows. perhaps people seeing this position are saying the negative sentiment is just overwhelming about this company. an august 10 gives them another opportunity to prove themselves with their earnings as you guys mentioned. the stock is so volatile that it could easily bump up then. people are willing to wait a little longer. these companies can recover, but then there's also situations like twitter. they had a great run up after their ipo before declining, declining for several years. vonnie: it's really fascinating because it still has such a tremendously dedicated user base. it's not as large as instagram butthe stories user base,
people do not look like they will go off anytime soon. is that enough for advertisers? sarah: what snap really needs to prove is that it can continue to have that case of product innovation that made everyone so excited about them ahead of the ipo. hasou mentioned, instagram the same product as snap stories, but snap invented it. they invented a lot of other things that are completely taking over among the younger set of internet addicted people. if facebook copies them and facebook will copy them, there might still be something special about this company that has been able to bring in people and fascinate them with new ways to connect to their friends. sarah, can facebook or instagram copy everything that snap does? is there a moat here at all? are there even patents that would prevent the likes of facebook from just copying everything? sarah: yes, i talked to a number of people about this.
why doesn't snap just to facebook? is software and the argument that facebook makes even in the public is that these are things that are just becoming the norm for how people communicate like email was like you messaging apps are. these are just the ways of talking to people on your mobile phone. snap did it that way. instant granted it's slightly different but very similar. it's very difficult to patents this software innovation. vonnie: i'm sure there are lawyers poring over lang which as we speak. sarah frier, thank you so much. that is sarah frier in san francisco on snap. this knock-down 1.5% now. time for our latest bloomberg business flash and a look at the latest business stories in the news. investors sold technology positions at the fastest pace in 10 years all last week. powershares qqq q trust series one, which tracks the nasdaq
100, top $3.7 billion. that is the largest weekly outflow since 2007. energy companies no longer hold the top spots for filing bankruptcies. consumer discretionary companies and retailers are running out of cash at a faster rate. energy companies had been leading after the class in oil prices, but a surge in online shopping driven by amazon has raised retailers to fall double. speaking of amazon, it may be a greater source of concern for corporate america than even the trump administration might be. data compiled by bloomberg finds that amazon mentioned or than 600 times on earnings calls and financial events compared to 160 mentions for trump over the last three months. the trend holds over the past year, even when the president won the office. and that is your latest bloomberg business flash. oming up, known for
vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i am vonnie quinn. anbangas asked hi insurance to sell its overseas assets. the chinese government wants them to bring the proceeds back to china. for more, i want to bring in tom orlik, chief asian economist for bloomberg intelligence. is this a wise move by the chinese government? after all, there's a debt problem out there and this would be money coming back on shore. tom: absolutely. chinesethe
policymakers, there are a couple of things that raise concerns among anbang and others. they're are using short-term liabilities to finance long-term assets, causing a mismatch, which starts to ring alarm bells. secondly, there is a lot of the funds to make purchases offshore, which raises concerns about capital flight. i think those are the two things that pushed china's policymakers asact, even though you suggest, their slight risk when you take on a big firm. vonnie: first of all, do they have to do this? are they pushing back? tom: i think at the moment we are still at the level of great reporting. that's by some journalists there . i don't think either the chinese government or anbang confirm this. we will have to see if they
follow through with asset price sales. vonnie: let's get to the broader issue -- anbang and other big chinese conglomerate overseas did repatriate money, even if they could get out of their stakes of all these companies here in the u.s. and elsewhere, would it be enough to make a debt in the democrat -- dent in the debt problem? tom: first, there's a capital flight problem. secondly there's a debt problem. of course, the two are related. for me these moves against anbang and other chinese firms are going to be an effective way of stopping the capital flight was. addressing the debt problem is a much longer-term challenge. vonnie: they have been doing not a terrible job of it research has gone. what has it look like to you? tom: the central bank deputy governor said before we do you up at we have to lever a flow of pace.
if you look at the aggregate, leverage continues to grow. debt to gdp ratios continue to rise. the success with which chinese policymakers have had so far this year is that the problem is getting worse at a slower pace. vonnie: tom, this is a graph of the yuan versus the u.s. dollar. we are trading at 6.73 now partly because the u.s. dollar has been weakening. explain what's going on with the yuan and how top of th how itsef the china right now. tom: the big fear chinese policymakers was one-sided yuan depreciation and capital flight woes. we assume and take a series of moves to get ahead of those problems, firstly imposing usingl controls, and then the daily fixing to get a bit of strength back into the chinese exchange rate and and those one-sided depreciation expectations. the other thing i would mention is that china's policymakers
have received a bit of help from an unexpected source -- donald trump, saying he favors a weaker dollar. has actually put china right in their sweet spot in terms of ethics management. dollar weakness has allowed the chinese to guide the u.n. stronger against the dollar, good for preventing capital , and it's good for trade competitiveness. vonnie: thanks to tom orlik. that's the asian economist for bloomberg intelligence. hopefully he will be back before he leaves again. on thursday, don't forget the bank of england releasing its latest revision on interest rates -- decision on interest rates. you can tune in as well on tv . this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
gura today. julia: repeal obamacare or cut taxes. -- agree onappeal either. we look at how losses pile up amid the political drama. and john kelly's first day on the job. he arrives at the white house facing a herd task of restoring order could he will have one advantage that reince priebus never did. -- backing of of ont of ivanka trump and jared kushner. ♪ julia: after the collapse of the obamacare repeal, republicans may have to choose securing another health bill or pushing through a tax overhaul this year because there is simply not en