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tv   Bloomberg Markets The Trump Economy  Bloomberg  July 31, 2017 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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david gura today. julia: repeal obamacare or cut taxes. -- agree onappeal either. we look at how losses pile up amid the political drama. and john kelly's first day on the job. he arrives at the white house facing a herd task of restoring order could he will have one advantage that reince priebus never did. -- backing of of ont of ivanka trump and jared kushner. ♪ julia: after the collapse of the obamacare repeal, republicans may have to choose securing another health bill or pushing through a tax overhaul this year because there is simply not enough time it seems to do both.
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here to talk about the tough choices facing the gop is stephen dennis and washington and our national political reporter's to help the poor. great to have you on the show. the problem is if you scratch the surface and you did not need to do that on either of these issues whether it's tax reform .ere health care divisions there seems to be divisions on which path forward you are choosing. stephen: absolutely. the republicans are facing a really tough choice now that they really want to double down and sort of the don quixote going after that windmill of repealing obamacare once more and shoe up the fall or pivot to tax reform, which is going to be equally tough, maybe even tougher. if they don't make a decision quickly, this could easily chew up both issues. kevin: i want to play for you a sound bite from senator jeff flake, a republican from
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arizona. this morning him about where all this is headed and whether or not the administration sure referee the republican political civil war or try to attract democrats. take a listen. >> what is over is an attempt to do it just with republican votes. we have reached the limits of what we can do with republican votes on health care in a. kevin: there you have it from senator flake. sahil, you are in the weeds of this better than anyone. what can you make of whether or not they can attract democrats and if that is a viable path forward? sahil: it's only a viable path forward if they change lanes. the big lesson from that is that the health care to about -- debate is moving to the reform and repair land. not undo will want to the provisions they really like, like the coverage and medicaid expansion co.
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i think democrats have ideas of what they want to do and it mostly involves insurance in the market and stability for different groups of customers and get different cost-sharing that the president is waffling on or raising cost in terms of co-pays and deductibles for their customers. that is where the debate is shifting right now. if that is where republicans land, there will be democrat willingness to cooperate. julia: things could really to stabilize the markets you. and you we canse off the mandate and donald trump is threatening on twitter to tackle these things. how credible is that threat? when you have got the likes of chuck schumer saying, here's an olive branch and we can work on some sid type of bipartisan measure, how credible is that? steven: it is something that the markets should be very worried about if you are an insurer and
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you rely on these payments to fund your insurance plan. keep in mind the president has not had a major legislative success. we are just two months away from the government funding deadline and the debt limit deadline. the have to put together now in the next couple of months a big deal, bipartisan deal to raise the debt limit and keep the government going. i think the other issues that the president is now holding hostage will get sucked into that final bipartisan negotiations. there has not been a lot of give-and-take here. threats, the democrats are not going to want to come to the table unless he wants to come and offer them an olive branch. kevin: this is where i think people outside of washington are absolutely scratching their heads. they're looking at the to do list, julia, and the fall. the have a passive debt limit and they have to overt the government shutdown.
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i think what everybody wants to know is you had this big dramatic fallout last week with health care with senator john mccain after his brain cancer diagnosis. he votes against it. have they really learn from their mistakes and their past? julia: after september 30 and after mccain? sahil: senator mccain's objection was partly about policy. he was not a big fan of it, but many republicans were not fans of that policy. the strenuous fierce objection that senator mccain was about the whole process of it. this was a bill that came around 10:00 p.m. and was voted on three and a half hours later without much chance for anybody to really look at it. and it recorded a fifth of the economy and that's the next order thing. to your point, what he wants to do is return to the normal order and do things by committee, to do hearings and markups, and get to the floor to have everyone
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have some time to look at these bills before they move forward. at least something like that is going to have to happen in order to get these things done like the debt limit and government-funded. ning. these have to be done in a bipartisan way. i think pushing things through without much chance for people to review them, that is going to be a problem. kevin: when sahil says pushing things through and going back to regular order, but the president is going the political nuclear option, that's not regular order. i talked to the treasury department earlier today and he says their adamant about correcting course on the playful mistakes. julia: let's just see what john kelly and impact he can have . steven is shaking his head. let's give him the benefit of the doubt. talk to me about tax because we have gary cohn saying the house
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is going to come up with something on tax after the august recess. you're still shaking your head on this one. what we have seen in the last few days is the border adjustable text die. can we take some positive from that and that it was a bit of give-and-take going on within the gop and they perhaps can come up with something or are we more looking likely at a tax cut rather than tax reform if they can do something this year? think the border adjustable tax was effectively dead months ago and the senate. last week was the week that paul ryan sort of gave up the ghost and acknowledged reality, which was there was not close to 50 republican votes. they have to try something else. they don't have an agreement on really the shape of what tax or for is going to look like. -- reform is going to look like. you have sort of six guys in the room. even if they all agree on something among themselves, what we have seen this past week on health care is that when you
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cook something up and a very small group and it back room, you still need to come to the floor and get people like collins and lis lisa murkowski and john mccain to vote for it. that's no guarantee. unless they open up this process and get more by and in support talk of anow there is major public relations campaign for tax reform, but i think a lot of people want to start seeing some specifics. really what they're talking about are things they are not going to do as opposed to things they are going to do, especially when it comes to paying, how you're going to pay for all of it. julia: some of the questions we have been asking. possibilities to be optimistic vanquished by you. thank you to steven dennis and sahil kapur. kevin: taylor riggs is here with the latest. for tens of 1%up
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and we are seeing gains in the s&p 500 although we are off the highs of the session. i would note a loss for the nasdaq as investors are fleeing tech giants. i know this is a politics show so i wanted to add a comment that we heard this morning from surveillance. michael over at market field asset management so that markets are an newer to the d.c. news, which is one of the reasons you're seeing record highs on the dow. other news is from the tobacco companies. though cigarette companies here are lower after congress said they are unlikely to block the fda move to limit nicotine levels. course, if the agency goes through with lowering nicotine levels, you don't necessarily have addicted smokers buying up all the cigarette tax. ks. another big mover is charter and the softbank move.
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softbank is making a direct move for charter after it rebuffed a merger with sprint, which is also controlled by softbank. there's a great note out by an analyst over at moffett, saying that after the q2 earnings of charter last week, he is positive on charter long-term. a little concerned that it's becoming more of a margin story than a growth story. my question is in maybe the direct offer becoming more of a growth story here for charter. finally to wrap it up, i did this just for you -- g #btv 4520. because we are talking about politics this hour, global risk aversion has now fallen down to its lowest level since the precrisis. we welcome to a lot of geopolitics news this morning. north korea talking about that enter come ou intercontinental c missile. venezuela and the president majuro taking a step back from democracy. take a look at global risk
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aversion, looking like another risk on day. kevin: love that chart. julia: maybe that optimism showing a tech bubble. we will talk to one expert on how you can position yourself ahead of impending legislation. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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julia: this is "bloomberg markets: the trump economy." i'm julia chatterley. kevin: i'm kevin cirilli. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. mark barton has more. mark: president trump met with his cabinet today, the first meeting for his new chief of staff, john kelly. the president said kelly will do
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a spectacular job with "the problems he inherited." >> i just want to congratulate him on the great job he has done with homeland security and i have no doubt that he will be an absolutely superb chief of staff. mark: the president said he thinks kelly will go down as one of the greatest chiefs of staff "ever." russian president vladimir putin says he hopes there is no further need for retaliation against the united states. his comments came after he ordered the u.s. to reduce staff at its diplomatic missions in russia by over two thirds. that is over 755 people in response to new sanctions against russia imposed by congress. china is betting that president trump won't carry out his threat to use force against north korea. china called for restraint after kym johnson's regime testfired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the second time in just a matter of weeks. the top american general called his south korean counterpart to
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discuss a potential military response. an official crucial to running kenya's upcoming presidential election has been reported missing a few days ago. he has been found that. the electoral commission's chairman says the officials body found showed signs of torture. there are concerns of violence as kenya transitions to biometric technology to identify voters and reduce fraud. a test run of the systems has been postponed. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries, i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. julia: julia thanks so thanks s, mark. the house and senate moving. ahead on tax reform law next guest once to not look forward to a reagan era game changer. they could provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity ,. nicholas birther is with us now to talk about's how he is
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advising his clients. great to have you on the show. let me start with the statement we got from the big six on the plans for tax reform. how optimistic are you in light of that? nicholas: i don't know if optimism is the right answer, but if you compare it to the trump proposals, which were six paragraphs on a campaign website read the and you big sixes manifesto, it made the trump manifesto seem like tedious. julia: a lack of optimism in a decided manner. talk about what we can achieve this year. what are you saying to your clients that can be achieved? comprehensive tax reform is not a possible the here, but they could try to push tax cuts from earlier because they need a win here. nicholas: there's the known and unknown. marginal tax rates will probably go down to 33% and brackets will be compressed.
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something will happen with itemized deductions. they will be cap or they will be reduced. you have the flat tax. there are some things that are easy pickings. carried interest will no longer be taxed. you sound like grover norquist now. julia: do you think that they will toss that? nicholas: i will be surprised if they did that. it's too easy to do. i've been wrong before, but i would be surprised. kevin: i spoke with the treasury department and he says that these reports about steve bannon pushing this higher tax rate on the wealthy -- some of these reports had been at like 45% -- there were not included in the framework for a reason. do you think that these reports of increased tax on the wealthy -- is that just some rumblings or something people should be taken more seriously? nicholas: i think it is dramatic rumblings.
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apparently bannon said it to someone. it's not clear who he said it too. it's not even a consideration in the bill. i would not worry about that. kevin: the washington at the chamber in full echio mode. julia: we have paul ryan and kevin brady say this is not something they are looking at here. i guess if we can trust them. [laughter] kevin: who to trust in washington? what about this issue of revenue neutrality. that is where people are nervous, right? nicholas: that's exactly it. if someone is expecting ronald reagan 1986 tax reform, i the way, that is not going to happen. you've got the bird ruled that it's got a be revenue neutral within 10 years and that's the only way we'll get through. take off the border tax and that goes away. you will drop corporate income tax rates. it does not lead to much left. julia: talk to us about the big
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opportunity that we teased when we introduced you. estate taxes and gifting. you think this'll be a huge opportunity. talk to me what you are telling clients in this regard. nicholas: if you think that allowed, most likely the estate tax will go away. maybe after the trump proposal, the capital gains tax is 20% on appreciated assets. the 40% rate is current on everything. this is the sort of thing that to our clients. there are things in this life called dynasty trust. if you step them up in the wright state, they last in perpetuity. if you are maybe a little bit of a visionary and say, yes, the estate tax and gift tax are going away, but there's going to be a democratic regime in the
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white house someday probably sooner than later, the estate tax is a socially sensitive tax and likely that reinstated. take that and put it in a dynasty trust? kevin: most of those opportunities arise. bertha, thanks for talking to us. i could geek out over tax policy for hours. [laughter] julia: political drama out of washington. the u.s. dollar and why there could be more declines ahead. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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julia: this is "bloomberg
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markets: the trump economy." i am julia chatterley. kevin: i'm kevin cirilli. julia: breaking news on utility companies. a is dropping plans for two nuclear reactors and succulent. -- in south carolina. let's give you a brief understanding of what the statement from the coming he said. in theluded it's not best interest of customers and stakeholders to continue construction of these, adding the costly uncertainty of availability of tax credits among others. you can see a brief spike in the share price, currently higher by 1.6%, although coming off the highs now. now a president trump counts the record run in the u.s. stock market as another economic indicator that is penning a slightly less rosy picture, that is the u.s. dollar. the bloomberg fx report is joining us now with details. talk to us about your report here.
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clearly if we look at a chart of the u.s. dollar, it has fallen 9% since november, so a tale of two half for u.s. assets. >> it looks that the u.s. market is betting against policy change. what we are seeing from the market here is that after the u.s. election and after donald trump was elected, everyone was very excited about the prospects of tax reform, infrastructure spending, lots of progrowth policies, which have clearly not materialized. investors in the currency markets are little worried and skeptical about the promise of the administration to push through its agenda. kevin: when i found interesting is that we are not seeing the russia investigations impacting stock prices typically. they really have been untouched. they are making somewhat of an impact sometimes with the dollar. why? why the dollar? lananh: it's interesting. theeems like people in
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stock markets are very optimistic and clearly looking past the policies. i think currency markets are generally very obsessed with politics at this stage. you know all the headlines coming out of the washington. it has pushed the dollar around quite a lot. julia: there was also an interest rate impact here and a relative measure when you're talking about the u.s. dollar. it's a cross currency so it will be sold and bought for something else. i've got a great chart that i just want to show you at g #btv 7580. what this doesn't show is the s&p 500. you can see the value that we have seen in particular if we look at it since january of this year. we have the s&p and white and this is adjusted for the u.s. dollar. we can get very excited about the rally we have seen in the s&p 500, but if you adjust and price terms for the movement we have seen in the dollar, then it's pretty flat since january of this year . i just want to make that point about the u.s. dollar.
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you spoke to some pretty important money managers when you were discussing this article. -- wereextent what they they talking about the clinical impact on the u.s. dollar? what do they have to say about it? lananh: a man he manages about $2 trillion, a big manager, he was on earlier today. he said all his clients are all asking about u.s. politics. they all want to know what's going on. they're watching you very closely as well. they want to know exactly what's going on and how it will change the u.s. policy landscape and whether that will boost growth. . julia: that's our bloomberg fx reported speaking to us. stay with us. plenty more to come from the trump nation. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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bloomberg markets. with bloomberg
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headlines, mark crumpton has more. mark: vice president tencent the united states stands with baltic nations against threats from russia as tensions rise. vice president made estonia his first stop on of his to eastern europe, following last week's russian-chinese exercises in the baltic sea, and comes before claimed dutch plan russian military drills in september that have passed, simulated attack on the region. hill mayns on capitol have to choose between pursuing another health bill and pushing protection from this here. congress must fund the government after the end of this month. different activists seven decade career included to orson welles, and other acclaimed directors --
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have died. emmanuel macron celebrated perot for going beyond earlier roles to embrace other genres, calling your quote, always rebellious. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. >> after the collapse of the obamacare repeal, republicans may have to troop -- truce between another health alliance tax record, because i'm certainly not enough time to do both. the biggest problem of all, they can't agree on either. i sat down with marshall blech of tennessee earlier command talk about how the house will move forward on tax reform. past our health care bill and we are waiting on the senate like the rest of america is waiting on the senate. is, if you visit
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plans for tax bill out of the house, isn't going to have to wait in line behind health care? behind it. will be >> people who are looking for a tax cut or tax reform for health care reform of the year -- >> they will get it. >> why should i believe you? -- in the house are continuing to force the issue on health care, tax reform, securing the borders. president trump is resolute. .arkets are doing well quite a are. >> people are beginning to see an increase in gdp. the conflict to -- that and say look, to make decisions to get it's the economy response -- because of that, the senate needs to come alike they here --t some something >> that's right to marketing of 51, we need them right now. >> commands neutrality in the
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house -- where do you stand on the? points when you look at things that are revenue neutral, you admitting that you are giving into the argument that government has first right of refusal on the money. i prefer to say to leave that money with the individual, and what you're going to see is economic growth and more revenues into federal coffers. works every time. >> the last minute or so we have left. have, seanpes we spicer out -- chief of staff reince priebus. what are your thoughts on general kelly commend everyone you observe -- what's it like to be in the middle of our best? is a turmoil? what is that like? kelly will be a tremendous staff. andnderstands institutions
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helped to formulate a team. found chief moment in charge at the white house come i would say there is an acronym. to get it -- team. to get -- together everyone achieves more. i will look at the guys in the white house invest in their are .ot you can tell a lot by body that wasrequires marsha blackburn of tenancy. >> she was quite punchy. who is she referring to? >> ultra conservatives and moderates. start then collins house is very frustrated with their republican colleagues. >>'s you understand they are saying -- having a spine is about this -- and agreeing on -- >> they want to agree on these issues.
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>> one advantage she will have is -- something reince priebus has never had. banca trump and jared kushner at least back him, something for which -- we want to bring in the newnot, author of book, doubles bargain. we will get to the devil's bargain here, bucs john kelly is a man that understands the importance of a chain of command here. kim -- has been told his going to be given full authority, but if you watch the news -- stick aroundn't
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too long. kelly comes out of a regimented background and implemented operate -- it has been brought in to be a strong chief of staff where reince priebus for his family and chief of staff. they attest he is going to face in the coming weeks and months is whether he can exert that authority -- people who also happen to be relative to donald trump. so will he be able to corral a banca trump and jared kushner to that's an open, question i think. >> josh, i have to say this. there are books you have to read and want to read in this industry. devil's bargain is green i had to and wanted to read. congratulations on a job well done. want to ask you about the trump children in particular. back on the campaign trail -- with corey lewandowski, when she was out -- it was because some of the trump children lost
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confidence in him. with general kelly's arrival not in the chief of staff position, do you think the originals, people like corey lewandowski, as their stature now elevated with reince priebus and sean spicer's leave? >> question, i don't know if it is or not. they will have to fall in line. interesting, this white house kelly doesn't -- strike me as someone who is coming in trying to push an ideology. i wonder if he will be able to tim down those things. i'll think it would have had experience in the military managing this sort of thing -- is going to be to manage the trump children. they tired of paul manafort.
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now they are gone. go tomp doesn't expectations going forward -- let's find somebody to blame for this other than the presidents and shall that series of events come to pass, kelly might find himself in the crosshairs. this is about how they influence policy. my question to you is, when you look at the shakeups, how is it directly going to impact something for there to be like an infrastructure package, or even tax reform, which seems 50-50?ances are >> arts and>> it will help having kelly and here. look at what he did at vhs. kelly is not personally and immigration hardliner. and yet he was willing to testify before congress about the need to build a boardwalk, he defended presidential
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authority on the travel ban, and to is someone who has carried out rigorous pleased -- democrats would say, ruthlessly, increase in arrests and deportations of undocumented immigrants. it follows the letter of the law. the cameras were nationalists can't just lead by steve bannon and miller the white house are fans of kelly. is probably good for the president's agenda that he has is a student of chef already shown a willingness and capacity to defend the agenda and carry it out coming to defend publicly and carried out, which reince priebus was never able to do. that's only going to be a help to trump. the one thing that place kelly might not hope -- help is terms of legislating. kelly doesn't have a lot of washington congress legislating experience. the problem we have seen an health care, the problem white
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house is facing increasing the feeling and trying to move on to tax reform is that they haven't been able to corral that republican congress. it think having an orderly best chance of a choosing dish something positive. >> there will be direct lines into trump, he likes being open. my first question years how kelly keeps kushner and banca trump on board, though he maintains that relationship without bypassing him. my second russian here, steve bannon, in light of what heaven was saying to you there, as he sitting pretty at this moment? will will will will will will will you think -- what he was looking at when he came into
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this administration and is he here or is he still threatened? >> i don't know an answer to that yet as far as the chart children go. there has never been a situation where children of a president or coming christmas this, the son-in-law, remember herod and both my family members in the white house and government employees who are senior officials in the same white house. tricky terrain. everything we are hearing publicly is along the lines of, kelly has the authority, people go through him. i think we will know that for sure until we are couple weeks in and there's a situation or policy where a banca trump are jared kushner wants to influence the president, and kelly says no , or, you have to do for me. that will be tricky, i don't think it will happen. as far as bannon, i wouldn't say he's sitting pretty. i think he has authentic connection to trump and don't race.
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his influences limited. if it was on that last week with the appointment of a anthony scaramucci coming to medications director, a move that previous and bannon eternally opposed. they were steamrolled by the president. previous is no got -- free bess is still there. but i don't think bannon is like the party. to the he has survived next chapter of this reality show and we'll so happens from here on out. relax couldn't have put it better -- >> could not have put it better myself. >> there are some many chapters in this. author of the new book on the most bargain -- >> got to read it. last coming up, venezuela could -- the battle nation threatens the threat of -- as the credit sanctions from the u.s. in light of an election that could have the first steps to remaking the constitution. this is bloomberg. ♪
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john: this is bloomberg market -- a time maker is in a weeklong slump. dr. sporting earnings on friday the missed sales and profit expectations. bloomberg's oliver renick joins us for more. >> not a great couple of days. made four days straight even worse. more than three times the average for the past couple of years on friday. this is about a deteriorating --
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and overall it's a concern about the outlook. in terms of sales by product much as 25% -- we've also got basically some margin contraction happening -- and think it's generally something to -- it's anticlimactic, but something if we can jump in the terminal here real quick -- they're pretty elevated. is coming into it and another quarter here as you can see in the last point. this is basically coming right here, you can see this on the heels of higher rubber prices coming up prices. as new sales are pretty important. we want to be in those new cars -- isis to come back in the tires. >> asked him a lot higher than it was -- when we had this conversation only to go.
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this is a big jump here if you measure the as a percent of 3 -- do have the price moves down, you also got a book filing on the short side saying, look. we know this will go in the other direction -- it's not always thing you can do -- sometimes you see people covering events -- sometimes they had more to the situation, so not ideal if you are looking at the longer term. >> we just to wait for next quarter's earnings to see -- >> is a few things here. one of them is about sales, and this is a great and what it wants your
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attention to is anything in the red. red shows up on this function when it's not a great situation, when you are in the lower percentile of your peers. this -- the next 50 companies by market cap. situation,great looking at the picture this is what investors will watch pre->> i love the comparison. >> this is rvr. what a love about it, you can click through it and it looks beautiful.
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and >> electing members of this after months of more protests -- critics: . hear more sanctions in response to the latest move -- and want to bring in a religious zero -- bureau joining us from miami this afternoon. great to have you on the show. how many people voted in the selection? and seeing large numbers bigger than -- the opposition, or they got world points seven and a half million voters, what do they get and we believe the numbers? quite a controversy right now. throughout the day yesterday we were seeing what a really small turnout area there were everywhere of the streets. but a lot of reports in this have shown as well. around 2.5 million people voted.
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there were some independent exit polling done that showed may be around three or 4 million people in the national electoral council came out and said that a million people have voted. a lot of people raise their eyebrows -- just give it a point of reference, that would be more people than voted for -- the first time when he was elected president. that's about the same number of people that voted for the previous president, hugo chavez, when he was at the height of his popularity. caps off figure today that his report rating is 17%. a lot of people are just wondering. story is not getting a lot of attention, at least publicly from the white house. we've not seen president trump tweeted about this way he has about countries like north korea for example. their direct implications on the
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foreign-policy agenda, particularly on immigration. i guess -- do you think -- are we headed towards more sanctions with? as this is headed? >> before the vote, which received a condemnation from countries across the clone, trump promised swift action. the ball is in transport and everyone is .aiting to see what he does there were individual sanctions -- when people are watching for now is to see if the u.s. government transitions from kind of individual sanctions to sanctions that would let a especially the, oil sector which is extremely important to the venezuela's economy. >> the venezuela bureau chief mission joining us from miami. thank you for that. steven mnuchin making comments now untaxed reform.
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make it feel a sense of what he is saying. is a pass-fail exercise, we know about that. also said he was growth has been too low. the present expansion goals of the gulf -- too optimistic some people are thinking. we will continue to bring you further headlines from that event. coming from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> president donald trump is growing increasingly frustrated with china's handling of the north korea situation.
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there are potential sanctions between u.s. and china. >> the north korean -- icbm -- china's has russia says north korea is not -- does not have an icbm. facts are facts. there's an intercontinental ballistic missile comments to global powers are not getting as much, that's when nikki haley at the united nations is running into these problems. for 40 together -- a sanction for north korea. how theyok at just have been just within the last six months, it's startling. cellular china in particular, they're they are more than 80% - >> on trump has argued they can do more. response here has to be
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calibrated. i just worry that donald trump's tweetsve -- explosive and criticism of china isn't perhaps the best way of bringing them on board. >>: 30 new york time, don't miss interview. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i'm scarlet fu. >> on julie hyman in for julia child. welcome to bloomberg markets.
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>> we are live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. deals takingion softbank could have insight set on charter communications. -- shoppingestors for valuing real estate. jeff pierce tells us in an exclusive interview on the true value is not in retail. washington, the clock is ticking for republicans to have the next course of action. her makers may begin tackling tax reform are yet another attempt at health care. pretty tight deadline as well. let's get a check number stocks are --

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