tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg August 11, 2017 10:00am-11:00am EDT
♪ vonnie: here are the top stories we are covering. stocks are higher even as president trump ramped up the rhetoric, saying the military is locked and loaded on north korea. wall street is turning at the latest trump remarks. more signs of concern in the u.s. economy. inflation remains subdued, coming below forecast. what does it mean for the federal reserve's next rate hike and timing? at two retail woes with the company posting bigger losses than estimated. first, we are 30 minute into the trading day in the united states and julie hyman is here to keep an eye on all things geopolitical, earnings-related. julie: we are seeing and rebound
after three days of selling that is part of the geopolitical concerns, which we will dig into throughout the day. all three major averages are bouncing back a little bit. the dow and s&p up 3/10 of 1% and the nasdaq up a third of 1%. going into the we can, we could see rocky nest, choppiness in the markets. we will be keeping and i out for that -- will be keeping an eye out for that. stockis one example, the climbed to a record and tumbled sharply yesterday along with the cap technologies. the stock is rising today, even after its main supplier reported earnings that missed analyst's normal -- latest estimates. smartphone shipments plateaued ahead of the next iphone, but apple behaving relatively well, even despite that. lossesretail, jcpenney
were deeper than estimated. the company has been closing stores and had liquidation sales, which hurt its numbers. macy's and kohl's are having a rebound. nordstrom was higher. now the stock is lower, even though it is a bright spot here with the company posting a gain of 1.7% last quarter. deeply into norstrom and jcpenney and the rest of retail later on in the show. as we see stocks bounce back today, the areas that have been catching a break over the last two days of reversing direction. crude oil prices have been all over the place actually. down 1% today. gold is little changed come a slightly higher after rising for the past two sessions. and the vix is lower after rising to its highest since may. but it is holding above the 15 level. what is interesting if you look at the vix curve, take a look at
the bloomberg care. live blog onour in the bloomberg. according to a representative, the selloff could feel painful, but it is what he calls a flush wound -- fleassh won't. flesh wound. the reversal is the white line. stocks will tend to bounce back. we will see what happens by the end up today. minutes of the close of equity trading in europe. we are seeing a tiny bounceback in u.s. stocks. if we look at volatility in europe, this is voluntarily in eurozone stocks, powering higher
, hitting its highest since april. we are above 20 on that, so volatility is still alive in the eurozone. if we look at european equities as well, still lower, don't a 1%.e of 1% -- down 8/10 of closelytocks down 2%, followed by financials. the stoxx 600 heading for its worst week since november. if we do not look at the euro, i have been watching the euro-dollar today, and we have seen a move following the u.s. cpi report. we saw u.s. dollar weakness. this means we are still on track for a fifth weekly gain for the euro against the dollar. of course, you cannot look at this without looking at the treasury bond spread.
this has been tightening, that has been the trend so far, but it has been widening out a little bit since about mid july. we are seeing that trend continue because we are seeing treasury yields steady ever so slightly higher. bond yields are coming lower. since we hit that 60 basis point mark on the 10 year bond yield, we have been drifting lower around 38 basis points. vonnie: thank you for that break down. president donald trump is keeping up the pressure on north korea. yesterday, he said, his fire and furey comments may other than tough enough, and today he's to this warning on twitter, saying quote -- military solutions are fully in place, locked and loaded should north korea act unwisely. hopefully, kim jong un will find another path. meanwhile, china is urging leaders to remain calm and reduce tensions. john fraher, our executive editor, joins us from london. a retweet from the guam military
as well this morning, john, talking about the fact that military is ready to act tonight is necessary. both of these leaders are prone to reacting emotionally. who does the first button pushing? ,ohn: you know, we do not know is the short answer. we are doing with two very erratic leaders, that are not cut from the same cloth as most leaders from around the world. having said that, you have to look back at this rationally. with all their bluster, both of them are calculating in their own way. you have to ask, does it make sense for either of them to be the first to push the button? that is the whole dynamic of military deterrence. if you are looking at from the u.s. side, it is possible that any moment the u.s. can strike against north korea.
there is an evidence of a buildup of american military hardware in the region. not possible to say, but it seems unlikely in the immediate future that we will see either of them launching anything in anger at each other. vonnie: what is the administration in the u.s. thinking, john? the president can get away with tweaking and annoying other leaders perhaps, but that is not going to go down very well with north korean leaders. there to bege is poking him like this? coined therd nixon whole concept of the madman theory. if you can convince her ,dversary that you are so crazy you are literally capable of doing anything, that can keep your opponent off guard. that is the way of unsettling your opponent. you know, you can make the case
with donald trump. there could be lots of bluster and he is drawing a lot of criticism. but richard -- but richard nixon tried it. other leaders have also tried it as well. that is one way of looking at how trump is tackling this. nejra: to some extent, china has come out as a mediator in all of this. china-russiana alliance could go in keeping things steady? china'se president of does not want to be pulled into this. they said it is an issue between the u.s. and north korea. trump haspresident been putting a lot of pressure on the chinese president to get involved. worsens, thesis harder it is for the chinese president to stay out of it. crisis is one of
the top trending topics. playingdia in china is this down. president has been wanting this to go away. russia is not really a major player in the sense and north in the backyard of russia. really, russia does not have that much weight when it comes to this particular issue. fraher joining us from our london bureau. thank you. dalio leads with water associates. rights, -- heer -- es that leaders
the world is watching to see which one will be caught. an analyst.s forhe president and risk toppling this great market action he has been trumping the continues -- trumping is he continues with this rhetoric? >> i have said with hindsight, i will pay you forgot the markets to tumble. the market should correct. it isically speaking, short-term and the markets will bounceback. daio --eone like ray the challenge is like to listen to these things and then people will vomit their lives.
move on witheople their lives. the bigger theme of the balance sheet reduction is that volatility will have to go up. but that means is cash flow and earnings will get discounted more providing headwinds to risk assets. but gold does not have a cash flow. people who don't like gold think that is a bad thing. but gold will do well when there is turmoil in the market. it is the easiest diversify her that is out there. we discount any turmoil from any federal reserve action in the next you much, given this morning, the cpi data disappointed. inflation isn't there. >> what would be helpful is if we knew what the federal reserve was up to. the reason i say that is they have these grand plans, and we are told it is like watching paint dry on a wall when they
reduce their balance sheet. ramped up, itly will be $50 billion a month. they do not want that. clearly, the market is pricing in fewer rate hikes. but if you translate to what that means in the markets, on the one hand, the selling of the balance sheet should keep treasuries strong, which means the dollar weak. at the same time, the low inflation expectations keep treasury strong. contrast that with the eurozone, we just had the bond rally quite a bit. things are going well in europe. bonds should be falling. without that, the euro has every reason to get stronger. with the dollar weakening, that is good for gold. nejra: how much stronger can the euro get the are talking about its relationship to the treasury bond spread? >> the eurozone has gonvarri far
quickly -- eurozone has gonvarri far quickly -- eurozone has gone very far quickly. depends on how it unfolds. if we don't have a crisis in in may impact treasuries. in a bear market, the euro has different dynamics because it has become a funding currency. i would not be surprised and we have seen that in the recent turmoil that the euro has kept up and strengthened. i would not be surprised to see it in the high one 20's by the end of the year. vonnie: you talked about that earlier in the cycling europe -- talked about that we are earlier in the cycle in europe than in the u.s.. things be positioned? i am negative on risk assets
something because of the balance production because of where we are with valuations, including tweets by the president may get us into an environment with lower risk assets. i do think the way to play this is more on the beside. being short bonds, which in my view --that maybe something. investors, doing what ray dalio is proposing with his current portfolio, including a very substantial -- he is considering -- he is proposing what investors may consider. literally that missiles might go off, or this could pick up momentum and we could see a big correction? >> these are big words. i would like to look at these
more abstractly. there are risk assets and safe assets. risk assets are anything from equity to junk bond. because they had been chasing yield even if they think they are safe are risk assets. similarly, treasury securities are from other countries. things have changed. the yen is historically a safe haven. but the euro has taken that role as well. i happen to think the swiss franc is a safe haven that is way overrated. it had been so we keep going into the north korean -- it had been so weak going into the north korean turmoil. off in the last two years, it has been rising more often than not.
scott: it is more of the news coming out of opec. demand is soft and production is up. we are seeing increased capacity coming out of libya, nigeria, and even saudi arabia. saudi arabia produced more than what their cap is. the production that we are seeing outweighs the data we saw from ppi yesterday in cpi today. vonnie: how are traders taking this weaker cpi data? was it anticipated to some extent? scott: i don't really think so. it actually caught a few of the traders off guard and caught many people i saw off guard. if anything, it is putting into doubt somewhat the next fed rate rise. inflation is not often running. it has cooled now. it is for the end of the summer. volume come in general, is light -- volume, in general, is light.
we will have to take a look at the next report, but i think this one caught people offguard. vonnie: with all the north korea's tensions and uncertainty over the fed, does gold reach 1300 or no? scott: that is a great question because 1300 is not one of those even round numbers. veryis technically a very, big resistance area. it is fighting here right now. we have seen the big rise up for the sake haven assets. are we going to get there are not? that is a big question. there is some pressure. even gold is up lightly right now, there is some pressure here. i do think the downside risk is pretty large in gold given the run off we have had. vonnie: scott bauer with trading advantage. with today's futures in focus. nejra: as investors seek a refuge from the stock market, we will tell you about
♪ nejra: this is bloomberg markets. i'm nejra cehic in london. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn in new york. it is time for etf friday. that means julie hyman. julie: the selloff yesterday was a reminder that stocks can go down and the fed hike is a reminder that rate go up, although they have not been. there is a group of etfs benefiting. so, the types of funds you are talking about our money market on the one side and ultrashort debt etfs on the other. let's start with outflows from money market funds. what is going on and why the appealing? and why have they become less appealing? >> we have seen $1 billion out
of money market funds. you see money coming out of government funds mostly. i called around. i don't cover money market funds too often. people are stepping out because when you talk about rates, yes, the further part of the curve has not gone up, but the shorter ones have. they have gone from yielding nothing to. 50 basis points -- yielding nothing to 50 basis points. , almostl yield you 1.3% as much as the 10 year. there are a lot of yields to be gotten. and for people worried about the stock market, these ultra short debt etfs provide a safe haven for them. they are interesting. they get used depending on where you're coming from. other inw to each general? >> sure.
there are three big ones. the pimco is the biggest one. it is the largest actively managed fund bar none. they are all active and have over one billion and yield 1.3%. fund, will goo more international to get that 1.3% yield. its duration is half a year. and you have the blackrock product that will go less international, but a little further out in duration. it will take more rate risk. and in the guggenheim product says will have the lowest duration, but we will take more risk and have a little more high-yield in their. -- in there. again, all the duration is within a range of that half a year, give or take a couple of months. so, these products are liquid and have no gates.
likemoney market investors they can get in and out whenever they want. their $40 billion in assets. julie: over the past couple of days, as we have seen buying in the treasury market with rates coming down, and these are seeing is a relatively place to be, with a be taking in money from a lower stock environment perhaps? >> that has typically been when they have done well. they have just gone opposite with money market funds for their yield. but money market etfs have committed -- the money market etfs are those that people have committed to. julie: thank you very much. we will be right back talking about that.
new york. >> president trump has another warning for north korea, he said military solutions are fully in place, locked and loaded should north korea act unwisely. hopefully kim jong-un will find another path. that was up for the north korean news agency accused the president of deriving the korean peninsula towards nuclear war with the president warning north korea not to conduct missile tests near guam. inflation and u.s. of dude with to make it tougher for the federal reserve to stay on track for another interest rate hike this year, the consumer price index rose and less than perspective amount in july and new vehicle prices they'll be most since 2009 and prices fell at hotels and motels by the most on record. the international energy agency has cut its estimates for the amount of oil needed from opec this year and next. they said emerging nations such as china and india will not concede with much crude and the
agency says there are growing doubts that all the countries involved in the opec reduction cut agreements are fully committed. in germany, angela merkel election to lose with six weeks she will be favored to win her fourth term as chancellor, strong personal approval ratings and a 15 point party lead over her primary challenger. she starts a 50 stop campaign tour across the country. -- 15 stop campaign -- global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you. disappointing second-quarter results stoking fears about their growth was shares plunging after the app missed extra minutes on daily at of an -- revenue. for more, let's bring in the ubs equity research analyst. we have seen shares hit a low since the ipo. are they cheap enough to become a takeover target? >> we do not think it is cheap
enough yet to think it is a positive risk reward for .nvestors on takeover never a great way to predict that. we are still in a position where it is early in the lifecycle of snap building out their advertising business and there is a fairly volatile set of outcomes going forward that could be both upside and downside. nejra: what sort of timeline are we talking about. when are investors going to lose patience and expect more from snap? to point out right frustration is growing come in our conversations with investors, i would say frustration is the main theme. into the next one or two set of results, i would say investors need to see a better directory in the advertising directory -- business -- better trajectory in the advertising business to turn this around. vonnie: you are one of the analysts that has bogged --
brought down their price targets on snap following this set of earnings to $12, down from 19 i believe and you had questions, if, following this set of earnings, the questions remain to the questions we should be asking -- like, can snapchat reach 250 million daily average users and monetize to the equivalent of 5-10,000,000 dollars over the next couple of years? on thehe user front and engagement front, time spent on the platform, there was positive indicators in the quarter. on how the advertising business, monetization on top of that time , there are as many "since as there was before. for the second half of this year, those questions remain very pronounced and we have to see that performance to get more constructive. vonnie: you still do seem to have a lot of faith in the company.
what does it have that gives us that kind of advantage over something like a facebook? we are more constructive on facebook and believes instagram has been taking users in the social media demographic, especially in 30 plus year old demographic and that is key for long-term growth. if given a choice, we would prefer facebook and instagram is a key driver behind facebook. snapchat has had good user growth. very good monetization. it is very early on the advertising and they have to build more momentum. nejra: you do not think that snap is cheap enough yet to be a takeover target and it is hard to speculate but could you see facebook ever wanting to buy it? facebook always looks for platforms that struggle with
monetization or user growth is good. maybe on that perspective it could be a fit. there has been press reports around facebook and google being interested in snapchat as a takeover candidate. i do not think for now we get any sense that is on the front burner. doese: user base is young, that continue, does it gather a new group of users, or does it grow with users that already has and what does it mean for advertisers? eric: they have a lot of time, a lot of user growth, and a lot of market share in the younger demographic, expanding that into 30 plus year olds is a big key question for the company. the amount of valuation people are willing to put on it. advertises want to against users that have outsized amounts of disposable income. 25, 30, 35 plus-year-olds have
more disposable income to spend than 14-25-year-olds. getting both pieces of the puzzle right are critical for snap to become a bigger company than they are today. vonnie: what is priced in and what should snap be valued at? c: -- vonnie: much appreciated. retaileris the latest to report declining sales at its stores. we have their former ceo to give his take on the route in retail next. this is bloomberg.
♪ nejra: live from london, i am nejra cehic. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn and this is luber market. it has been -- bloomberg markets . nordstrom posted the quarter with shares up 2.5% but now down. 2%. joining us to talk about what is happening is abigail doolittle. are we separating nordstrom from the oak -- from the overall retail malaise? >> someone said they put up a good quarter and the sales by 1% and doing the right things, helped by their anniversary sale and all of this has led to a compise, sales gain did -- sales gain. they were up 1.7%. bucking the trend of the last
couple of quarters and trying to move back perhaps to where the gains had been in 2015. they said it has to do with strength and digital. also saying something that separates nordstrom from the other competitors like macy's, and kohl's, guidance in the right direction, they narrowed the range and took up the low end. shares had been higher but other stocks not doing well and maybe overall the sentiment is weighing on the shares. vonnie: there was talk about taking of private, what is going on with that? >> management expressed a desire to go private, perhaps seeing the writing on the wall with the stock up 7000% and maybe wanting to cash in. the ownership tells the story well on nordstrom in the bloomberg, this is a great function, own, we see these are the top current shareholders, lots of the family, bruce nordstrom on top and lots of the others below. you can see the incentive to
want them to take the company private. in this difficult retailing time for department stores. very much alive but it is a matter of structure and thinks it will happen. that is a put or protection in shares of nordstrom. vonnie: thank you for that. has -- shares of jcpenney falling, and understatement after it followed in the footsteps of macy's and kohl's and reporting declining same-store sales in the second quarter. jc 40 -- jcpenney had a reported -- allen questrom is the former ceo of jcpenney and joins us over the phone from colorado. if the current leadership asks you what you would do to reverse the stock decline and turnaround jcpenney, what would you tell them? allen: jcpenney has been going
through a challenging time. they are trying to do many things. the current leadership was left with a difficult situation. it is struggling and struggling. they are the difficult of these stores, in the same category as sears roebuck. they are in many of the older malls. how do they find something to differentiate them in the marketplace? wavelength the same as they are in terms of putting appliances in because that is not the first place you go to buy appliances. the challenge for jcpenney is that they have historically been a middle-class family store. they need to find home furnishings and apparel that has good value, everyday value, and differentiate it from the rest of the marketplace. the retail gas the bricks and mortar business is not a dead business, plenty of people are doing well. the department stores are going
through a struggling time. they do not-- if make a reason for coming into the store and when you come in, it is not an exciting place to be right now. you cannot make a store only about sales, it has to be theater and tell stories the people. whether it is macy's or jcpenney isnordstrom, their mission they have to make the experience of taking the time to go into the store important and exciting. all of them have a fairly well-developed internet business. the problem with the internet business is it stops you from coming into the store. what many stores are doing is, nordstrom has a 25% of their business is internet. jcpenney's is small. the you buy something on internet the store loses the possibility of m wolfsburg just as when you come into the store -- temples purchases as you come into the store -- in false purchases -- impulse purchases
when you come into the stores. that -- they are suffering from that. except for stores like tj maxx, quick to go in for a treasure .unt and people go in for them jcpenney has something that does appeal to that customer, which is supported they put in several years ago. do they have other things around that which appeals to the same millennial customer? that is the challenge they have to work on. nejra: you mentioned the customer, the fact we have seen nordstrom but the trend in declining sales, makes me wonder whether this is less about the retailers and more about the consumer. we have household borrowing at a record in the u.s. nordstrom is more of an upmarket store then macy's and kohl's -- dan jcpenney.
is this an issue with the consumer and what could retailers do, if it is? allen: nordstrom has done a much better job of presenting their store. their internet business, there off price store is down in their stores but the regular priced stores are up. they have done a better job. i believe the off price stores which they cap and do a lot of business distracts people from the regular store. this last report showed that the regular store, regular priced store is up. they're all priced store is down. store is down and they are doing a better job at attracting customers. macy's talked about a couple of stores -- businesses they put a lot of focus on, the jewelry department and shoes, that is showing strength. each department has to have somebody go through and figure
out what makes you want to come in and buy from this department. if the sum total of a department store is those many departments and if your department does not resonate with because her as a reason to come in, that is one less component to bring her in. but macy's is trying to do, attack one department at a time, which they have started to see success. that is the way they will have to go about that. it is not more promotions. they are over promoted. they are all closing a number of stores because there are too many. too many choices for customers and the have more clearance than regular prices. nejra: i know you still have a lot of faith in the brick-and-mortar store, even though there are the challenges at the moment. , to you, know -- what would be the signal that brick-and-mortar is pretty much dead? even if it is not for a decade. allen: i think it will not
happen in a decade because if you had no bricks and mortar a much smallere internet business because people get their ideas by going into stores. the iphone, a 10-year-old component, has been transformational in terms of people can shop on their phones before they go into the store. i believe there will always be stores and the challenge is how to make them exciting and interesting. that is what i believe is the bigger issue. the internet business is important for everybody. it causes people to not go in stores. doy probably most stores 15%, 20% of their business on the internet. it is less able to come into the mall which is the challenge. malls are trying to create more excitement and stores are trying to create more excitement and we will see at the end of the year. you cannot have the same objectives, profit wise as you use to have.
profit orzon makes no very little profit, mostly on the cloud, if you have a 10% objective, know way you can compete in the marketplace. you have to have competitive prices with free delivery. if you do not do that, you will go to a competitor like amazon. you cannot have the same objectives as you used to have. many department stores and retailers have to lower their profit objectives over the next four years, five years. if they are trying to compete with amazon, they will lose. vonnie: we have to leave it there. jcpenney down 16%. former jcpenney ceo, thank you. whyng up, betting on banks, wells fargo security analyst say big banks are strong enough to weather to financial crisis is. we will hear from the next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ nejra: live from london and new york, i am nejra cehic. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. big u.s. banks have a rocky earnings season but a bank analyst at wells fargo securities is optimistic about the road ahead. >> we are structurally bullish on banks at wells fargo securities, balance sheets are the strongest they have been in a generation. we have had a permanent structural risk reduction. regulators have forced banks to increase capital liquidity and banks can withstand not just one financial crisis that to financial crisis, based on the fed data. it is not just the risk reduction, we think revenues are poised to break out. a combination of the headwinds. the biggest noncredit headwinds in the history of u.s. banking now over the a few interest rate
hikes help, this is before big benefit from lots of rate increases, the regulation, or reflation trade. you have revenues and returns going higher with risk going lower. a paradigm shift for valuation. positive outlook distribute evenly across the sector, particularly with big body banks as opposed to regional banks and community banks? equally beneficial? >> we c-130 upside for the bank group over three years in general. the top recommendation, we see one half upside over three years , generally for citigroup, bankamerica, jpmorgan. this is the moment of the big guys. any 1990's, 1994 is when we had a first national banking. the big banks do not fully integrate the acquisitions and the tech bubble burst, last decade more acquisitions and the financial crisis. lots of the decade, big banks
are cleaning up from the financial crisis and for the first time since interstate banking relief in 1994, the big banks can focus on being a national bank and redo their operations. and not doing other bank acquisitions. the bigthe time of banks finally doing what was promised from 1994. >> you do not have a prop. last time you did. you are subdued. what is wells fargo doing to you? >> this is week six. we have -- there is 30 individuals analyzing financial companies and research, banks, not dexcom a fixed income, equities. this is my debut at wells fargo securities but i collaborated with a dozen different individuals in research as part of my watch and i love having the resource. i am a lone ranger but i love relying on other people's expertise to make it better call. >> you are liking it?
>> so far, so good. >> even know one big bank you cannot cover? >> i covered the industry for a long time and the market cap as well over $1 trillion, i have a lot to do. next yearnks over the is deposit data, who will be the first mover and what will they do to margins? >> the margin decline this decade is the biggest it has been in 80 years. that is a function not only of lower interest rates but if you do not put -- bank and near cash has increased from $1 trillion to $2 trillion before the financial crisis. margins have been impacted by many factors. mayo ofthat was mike wells fargo securities. nejra: time for the bloomberg business flash. of the best performing chipmaker are falling today, and
video posted strong earnings with an upbeat forecast but the data center related revenue rose less than 2%. investors appetite for backing the riskiest companies is soaring. conditions for tech startups reached a record high of 44% from a year ago. striving the surge is the number of new businesses raising money for the first time, a huge turnaround from earlier this year. in china, the government stepping up scrutiny over onlinet content, the watchdog has launched an investigation into possible content law violations at companies. reports the online services are carrying user generated content that with violence and rumors and porn. a sign the energy energy -- industry is stabilizing after turmoil, the number of bankruptcies among oil and natural gas companies in north america down sharply.
through july, 14 energy companies have sought bankruptcy protection this year, compared with 55 firms over the same time a year ago. businessour bloomberg flash. coming up on the european close, following stocks, let's look at how they are performing. we may have seen the u.s. recover at the stoxx 600 still debt and european equities headed for their worst week since november. let's look at fx, the euro is higher and sterling is pretty flat. yields coming down across europe. this is bloomberg. ♪
bloomberg markets. nejra: european stocks about to post their worst week since november as president trump ramps of the rhetoric against north korea and we will look at what is really worrying traders across the globe. is at the beginning or the end of the junk bond rally? we will talk to a morgan stanley analyst who says a correction could be imminent. in commodities, oil prices take a dive, they are cutting demand estimates and a key technical signal may bring better news for opec. we will explain coming up. let's look at where european equities are trading now, under 30 minutes to the close.