tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg August 18, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ nejra: the top stories we're covering from the bloomberg and around the world. european stocks are lower today after terror attacks in spain weigh on investors minds and airlines and hotels among the biggest decliners and we will look at the potential market impact going forward. upcoming,n elections is it time to cash in on the euro gained, we will speak to a ubs strategist who said it's it is time to do that. he will explain why. in banking, we will take you inside wells fargo's plans to restore its image following the phony account scandal, why listening more could be the key to their success. before that, let's look at where
european equities are trading now, just under 30 minutes to the close and the losses on the stoxx 600 becoming quite entrenched on some of the country benchmarks, losses of more than 1% and on the stoxx ,00 right now, down 8/10 of 1% red across the wheel with every industry group in lost territory . health care, real estate, consumer discretionary underperforming, the travel and leisure stocks underperforming for a lot of the session. are here, risk aversion partly on the policy paralysis in the u.s. that perhaps has been compounded by the geopolitical risks and the ongoing investigation with the terror attack in barcelona. volatility, what is interesting, i have the fix in blue and the v stocks index, this is year to date, we saw both a spike in yesterday's session, the vix coming back, below 15.
volatility innovated in european equities. aoking at the euro, a bit of theme of dollar weakness and the session today with the euro higher against the dollar, one point 1751 and this is the euro-dollar over five days, lower by 6/10 of 1%. about a equities are gain over the week just a bit. so many superlatives when it comes to the london metal exchange, copper and aluminium at a three-year high. zinc hit a fresh decade high in today's session. a lot has to do with inventories with them shrinking in london and shanghai. some people starting to question at these levels come is the man going to be enough to sustain these prices? are looking at small
declines for the major averages in the u.s.. big selloff,ay's the worst day for the dow since the middle of may, now down 3/10 of 1% with the s&p 500 and the nasdaq desk -- down less than that with the russell 2000 downs three can someone present in the fact that the russell 2000 on pace for its worst month since january of 2016. i do reach out to a lot of street contacts and generally, over the last several months, most have agreed at different times whether they are bearish or bullish but now starting to see a little bit of a disagreement in opinion. the ceo of a capital group said that he would buy but the head of technical analysis at him km says he is less than cloud to buy the weakness. -- less inclined to buy the we give us. -- weakness.
movers in the retail space, nike lower, down 4.5%, on paper its worst day since march of this year. 27%, on paceown for its worst day since november of 2008 after they put up a huge miss for its quarter, missing earnings by 31%, missing revenue by more than 5%. they are taking a hit from online competition. down 6%, on pace for its worst day since august of 2015, a mixed quarter, there were high expectations, the last two quarters had been good and investors wanted more and the shares declining. on the year, speaking of a loser it is year to, whitehart, what we see in is the russell 2000 giving slightly negative and involute the mid-cap index up about 2.6% on the year.
8%.e cap, s&p 500 up about only when small-cap and mid-cap, the growth -- market capsize tends to drop off, sometimes it suggests a risk off ahead, that happened in august and september of 2007. something to watch, especially considering we had haven assets such as gold and the and higher on the year. nejra: let's get to the latest on the terror attack in spain that have left 14 people dead and scores wounded. police killed five suspected terrorists in connection with the vehicle attack in barcelona and the resort. they say the terrorists were planning a bigger attack with explosives. joining us from our madrid -- give us the latest on the investigation. it seems a bigger attack was
planned then the one that happened. >> that is correct, this started -- the information started coming out yesterday after the policemanbarcelona, a said that in another town that e-house had blown up and initially thought it was because of a gas problem. they are confident that what happened was that the terrorists were doing some kind of preparation and the house blew up and they lost the material they would use for the bones. they changed the plans -- bombs. they change their plans to do the van attacks. ill about theoing attackers and if they were connected -- what do we know about the attackers, and where the attack since negative -- attacks connected? >> that seems to be the fact, they were definitely connected. one of the working series is that the driver of the van in a barcelona attack may be one of the five people who was shot
dead in another city. it is not confirmed but it is one theory the head of police said they are working on but we do not know much more about the people except one was born in morocco and another one was born in a spanish city in africa. van driver may be at large, what our policy -- police focusing on in the investigation most now? >> they are looking at several people, one is the driver who is at large and the local media reporting in barcelona that he may be a teenager but the police have not told us. they are looking for him. they are looking for several other people, they do not give a number. or six who were part of the network and may have given support and may have helped plan these attacks. nejra: thank you.
getting the latest on the spain attacks. let's focus on europe's economy and the euro, it has rallied 12% against the dollar this year. what is next for the currency as the ecb considers how much longer it continues the bond buying program. joining us is the head of the european investment office at ubs wealth management, who is ending his overweight position in the euro. good afternoon. this change in position on the euro is more a tactical thing on a six-month basis, rather a long-term call? >> euro is still undervalued. if you look at when we put the trade on, last year, expectations were different. there was real concern about political turmoil in europe with the french election, dutch elections, german elections. on the u.s. side, the newly
elected donald trump with expectations about his spending cuts, tax reform. it was a different dynamic. then and now, obviously the expectations have in some ways reversed. expectations out of the u.s. tend to be subdued, not much in terms of how much more you can do on infrastructure spending or tax reform. even expectations of rate increases, the u.s. for this year seems to be 50-50, if you look at the bond market. on the european side, the economy is strong and at the beginning of the year, 1.5% growth now at 2% with expectations tapering -- are completely different. dollar rallying quite a lot, our target one year ago, we expected it around 1.20 and this year we have gotten there quickly. not unusual that when you have such a big rally, you get a
cause -- pause. nejra: closing the overweight position against the dollar and swissie. a lot has happened in the u.s. this week, has anything changed in your view, giving us the latest -- given the latest fed meetings were got more questions about inflation and what has been happening this week around the donald trump administration? do you see much for their dollar weakness -- much greater dollar weakness? they concern in the short-term -- the concern in the short-term is that things can look better, looking at retail sales in the u.s., they came out very strong. the underlying economy is still pretty healthy. inflation, link is you cannot say the same about europe. expectations are that mario draghi will announce tapering in september or october.
headline inflation, it is declining. if you build in what is happening to the oil price and everything else, you see headline inflation down below 1% within one year. given that outlook and you give up on the euro trade, where are you putting that money to work? -- we stillill underway the swiss franc versus the swedish krona, euro versus the swiss franc, the differences with the swiss franc weakening, we think it is overvalued and over time will depreciate. if you look at the other side of the equation, the turkish economy is strong and deflation is picking up. the central bank and some states needs to think about increasing rates. we see an opportunity there. in the currency markets. vonnie: get finished on the currency markets, sterling, where is it for the rest of the
year? >> we are watching it closely because fundamentally it is more undervalued versus the euro. theundervalued versus dollar. in the short-term, i suppose the concern is what is happening with the economy, a decline in economic activity in the u.k., partly because -- consumer spending is becoming down -- coming down. noise around brexit. you still have the political uncertainty following the elections. in the short-term, it is not certain where sterling goes but fundamentally it is undervalued. it is amazing how resilient the sterling has been despite all the negative news. yes it has been weaker a little bit but close to untouched versus the dollar and the euro may be starting to weaken. nejra: your target on eurosterling? >> we think it will flood
between three and six month and a small appreciation of sterling versus the euro, but very small. expecting the sterling to appreciate. nejra: thank you and you are staying with us to discuss the upcoming german elections. but what a victory for brexit negotiations and the future of europe economy and what could it mean for the ecb? this is bloomberg. ♪
double-digit lead over her main social democratic challenger ahead of the vote on september 24. she has faced loud anti-immigration protesters at several stops this week. back with has his head of the european investment office at ubs wealth management. 75% probability of angela merkel holding onto chancellery, i found interesting in your report was the indications that you outlined for the ecb and the next ecb president. ecb, if youyond look at the next year or so, key positions within the european, the head of euro group, and other positions have become vacant -- will become vacant and their negotiations between the member states. depending on what happens with the german elections, you may find that somebody like the current finance minister ends up
taking one of those positions. if that were to happen, we know he is reasonably conservative. when it comes to fiscal policy and european matters. that could influence the direction of the european union. nejra: what is the probability of this an area of you are saying happening in your view, and how are you advising investors to position? possibility but you have to be careful with politics because it has to be a negotiation between all of the different member states. going back to the german elections, the outcome to some degree what influence what happens. a position,p with whatever party you want in the coalition, they would be asking
for some of the ministries. depending on their marketing power, that defense where they may ask for the finance ministry. the current finance minister is well entrenched and no reason why he should not give up that position. if an alternative position within the european structure becomes available, that could be a way to facilitate a change. nejra: to go back to the ecb point, this scenario you outline could ultimately mean a more dovish ecb? lower bond yields and potentially a weaker euro? >> depends on who takes that position. we still have a bit of time until mario draghi engages -- vacates the position and have a more dovish ecb but could have a more dovish head of euro group. there would be a balancing act between the -- vonnie: talking about who
governs germany and what kind of coalition the next time, on the margin it makes a difference, , doefore, risk portfolios you make changes now before we know a result or do you wait for a result? what is the timing? >> i do not fundamentally we will see a big shift in the german policy. the germanink elections will be a big driver for the markets. i think it is another step in the direction of getting these political events out of the way. we started the year with uncertainty which is slowly disappearing because we still have the italian elections. not many people talk about it. it will come. important for me is the relationship between germany and france. angela merkel and macron. that relationship is going to be crucial after the elections, whether the two countries thrive
more reforms in europe. if we were to get positive results and italy, you have some of the big european countries having had elections, all the certainty behind him with pro-european leaders wanting to reform european union. positive. .ejra: thank you so much the head of the european investment office at ubs wealth management. vonnie: still ahead, a german company which makes genetic pharmaceuticals is surging on a bloomberg scoop. bain capital and another group has succeeded in another bid. ♪
shares of stada soaring as we were first report that private equity duo bain and cinven acquired a deal for the drugmaker which spanned months and at times looked doomed. shareholders may the deal succeed. joining us is one of the reporters who broke this story. great to have you. i have been talking about stada four months in my stock movers every morning, what is special about this company? service, not much special about it, a copycat drugmaker. the profit margin is one of the lowest among its peers. the gives cinven and bain opportunity to improve the
profit margin and the company has a branded drug business which will help offset the weakness in the generic space. nejra: what ultimately pushed this deal through? instrumental? >> we had reported that elliott management had been rising is stake in the business after the soft bit have failed, they came up towards more than 8%, and the market was unaware of what their intentions were. , whereket was confused they for or against the deal and bloomberg news reported this earlier this week that they had signaled interest in helping cinven and bain get the deal across the line. areic takeovers in germany notoriously difficult to get across the line and hedge funds, while they were supportive of the deal, they want to keep a minority holding, which would mean they would get health and dividend payments.
, notejra: bain and cinven the end of the road for them, is it? >> they need 75% of shareholder approval in the next agm. once they get that, they will help them have more control of the company. , they failedd side in the last attempt and rose the bid by $.25, giving the company a 50% premium on last year. it is great news for stada shareholders. nejra: is there a risk that bain and cinven overpaid? couldrisk that pe overbank? under pressure to deploy the cash they are sitting on? >> $1.6 trillion of what the market calls dry powder.
there is a lot of competition in the market at the moment with cash-rich chinese strategic's, canadian pension funds, all going for attractive assets. with the amount of capital that private equities are sitting on with the debt market so cheap, there is a certain risk for multiples to become more punchy than i have been. berlin,eporting from sarah syed. breaking news. vonnie: a review from john kelly on whether steve bannon will keep his job is imminent, according to act ceos -- axios. ♪
kelly on weathered steve bannon is said to be keeping his job is imminent. officials are saying that band and maybe fired. they are expecting steve bannon to be fired. bloomberg news has not confirm these details yet, but a recent deluge of media coverage of steve bannon has not escaped the president's attention nor kelly's attention. a decision on steve bannon's job from john kelly is imminent. the dow is down more than 1/10 of 1%. up though on this news and the s&p has turned positive by less than a point so far, but had been lower for all the session. the nasdaq composite index is up 2/10 of a percent. is imminent coming from chief of staff john kelly, xios.ccording to ask yo nejra: even as you show the s&p
500, we saw the losses from the session. you can see a number of these benchmarks down more than 1%. portugal, for example, the ftse 100 off by 8/10 of a percent. it is about the policy paralysis in the u.s., but that has been compounded perhaps by some of the jitters around the geopolitical risks with these attacks in spain. we've seen them quite a bit of risk off sentiment. the euro flat after earlier gains. we have seen a bit of dollar weakness in the session. we are seeing sterling weaker against the dollar. a fairly quiet day in the bond markets. we were seeing yields move lower earlier and that was having a bit of an impact on financial stocks as well. pretty unchanged as you look at the 10 year across germany. not too much movement on that. hitting a fresh
decade high in the session. it is the best performing lme metal, beating aluminum. we have been seeing aluminum and copper rally stronger in the session. here's a breakdown of the industry groups. a second day of losses for europe use equity benchmark. it is still heading for a very meager weekly game come up for tenths of a percent on the week. as you can see kumal losses across the board in terms of industry groups. and consumer discretionary underperforming. that is following the attacks and spain's. in spain, . i got this chart from the mliv blog and the stoxx 600 has been beating the s&p 500 on the 50 day moving average basis.
s&p 500 stocks below the 50 dma. look that commentary on the blog and it's certainly interesting. it suggests that perhaps the risk off as being led largely from the u.s. even that we might not see that in today's session. index, at the cds widening out for a second day. axios reported our view from white house chief of staff john kelly on steve bannon keeping his job is imminent. axios citing administration officials and officials expect strategist steve bannon to be fired. reasons why some that might be imminent, including a recent deluge of media coverage followed by an interview in "the daily mail." we are seeing stocks spike higher on the news.
the s&p 500 has turned positive by 1/10 of percent. the dow jones industrial average is still down 20 points, but it had been much lower. the dollar index as well is almost unchanged on the session having improved. we will keep following the details. axios saying the decision is imminent from the white house on whether steve bannon keeps his job. nejra: looking ahead to next week, top central bankers is gather at the federal reserve policy summit in jackson hole wyoming. el-erianoday, mohamed weighed in on who will matter the most -- mario draghi or janet yellen? a marketfrom perspective, i will be paying more attention to mario draghi. why? on aed is well embarked beautiful normalization. i don't think the fed is going to want to shake that process. -- i don'txpect to
expect janet yellen as chair of the fed to be saying anything. she will be focusing on financial stability in the monetary policy. bay different situation for mario draghi and the ecb. they are about to embark on tapering process. they will have to explain how they're going to do that. the economy there is more fragile than the u.s. from a structural perspective. i think the mario draghi comments will have much more information content at this stage than the yellen comments. take those comments and put them together with the comfort we got this week. how much will it take away from what mario draghi might be saying? their particular focused on the strength of the euro. does that take a little thunder away from mario draghi? mohamed: no, i think if anything, it shows the dilemma they are in. an appreciative currency is like
a hot potato in the global economy. no one wants it. if you end up with it, it's a real problem because it undermines your competitiveness. it is a headwind to growth and it depresses inflation at a time when you're not getting inflation you want. at the same time, mr. mario draghi has to respond to other things you se he is seeing in te economy and politically. if anything, what you saw from the minutes yesterday they much increased certainly my interest in what he is going to be saying. >> let's talk about what they will ultimately do. we know at some point in the next couple of months and what we understand from the most recent reporting is that they want to hold off on this decision until the autumn to communicate to the market what the next move actually is. qe at its current pace set to end that this year. what is next? mohamed: less qe is going to be
very gradual. you're going to see central banks remaining cautious. you're are going to see central banks airing on the side of being more dovish than they would be otherwise and it will remain data dependent. i think of this image as central bankers are trying to soft land this plane they are in. their instrument panels are giving them they strange readings and they are trying to figure out which entremed panels to trust. if you're in that environment, you ultra cautious. that is something you will see from central banks around the globe by the way. >> want to get your thoughts on the federal reserve. we have this really intriguing spread. the ecb has drawn a line in the sand in this market. the last thing that janet yellen it is a stronger dollar story. they've had quite a favorable market for the last couple of months. you came out front at the start
of the year and said the fed would lead the market and they did. at the moment, the take away from the most recent minutes is that this is a very confused and reserve. -- federal reserve and that they will hold off on rates to the end of the year or maybe longer. is this a fed that should reassert itself and should we pay more attention to the recent comments from mr. dudley? mohamed: i think the fed will not assert itself on markets for a while. if there is a hike, it will be in december not september. they will not look to disrupt the markets. they will wait and get information and react. also on the qb side, they are going to try to make the reduction in the balance sheet as boring as it can be. look at the fed right now not want to make headlines. just monitor developments and hold out the possibility of a december hike. el-erianat was mohamed , bloomberg view columnist and
chief economic advisor on "bloomberg daybreak: americas." vonnie: let's check in on the first word news with courtney donohoe. is reportingos that a review from white house chief of staff john kelly on whether steve bannon keeps his job is imminent. officials expect payment to be fired. bloomberg has not yet confirmed this, but we will keep you updated on this new news. in finland, up to eight people were wounded when a man stabbed him with a knife. one report said that police shot and killed the attacker. no word on the motive. the terrorist attack in barcelona to the been a lot worse. terrorist had planted bombs with explosives and rammed into pedestrians when the original plan failed. hours later and a town 80 miles away, carbon of the people killing at least one. police shot and killed five
other suspects. three are from morocco and one is from spain. secretary of state rex tillerson said that one of those killed in the attacks was an american. consumer sentiment in the u.s. plunged to a seven-month high in august. according to the university of michigan survey, one measure of outlook for the economy of personal finance rose by the most the end of 2011. global news 20 for hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries come , i'm courtney donohoe. this is delivered. vonnie: wells fargo has the banks retail head on a mission to revamp the banks culture. we look at her efforts and if they have paid off. the board and the founders of computer company intel a-shares has shares of the company falling today. this is bloomberg. ♪
nejra: live from london and new york, i nejra cehic. vonnie: i vonnie quinn in this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." shares have plunged since a spat between the founder and board of the european services giant led to the ouster of the ceo. resigned earlier this morning and the drop in the share price highlights concerns ove of investors over the interference by the founders. typically people love the founder and ceo because it injects enthusiasm to the company. a fight playing out in the public atmosphere and investors get a little nervous about this. withthe founders fighting
the ceo, the founder had a higher time letting go. she was the first non-founder ceo. he resigned saying that this has all become a distraction. it should not be a distraction because when you look at revenue , 62% of that company's revenue comes from north america. only 3% of revenue comes from india. here withbal company a lot more revenue from north america that people would normally think. if we look at a one-year basis, all this is pulling down the stock, down to its lowest in may. there's a lot of criticisms over the severance package and executive pay in a blog post saying he was better fit as a cfo rather than ceo. behind all that boardroom drama, there has to be more to the story. , to my terminal. and this is just the fa function
and you can see ebit margins and this is a margin story. first, margins took over, but not too great. not great from where they were back in the high 20's and low 30% margin rate. what are they trying to do? reduce headcount. that increases even margins and look to transition to digital because of the higher-margin business. explain, the just shares down today suggesting as ators seek a departure blow to emphasis. how did it perform compared to its peers? taylor: they had really done well before today. if you want to come into my 4489,al here at g #btv since he took over august 1, 2014, we have normalized it back to that date and outperform
competitors. then look at what happens. ground lost a lot of since going back one year since mid-2016. you can see the drop in that price today is pulling it down. looking to perhaps array race some of those losses compared to its competitors. vonnie: taylor riggs, thank you with the stock of the hour. restoring order at wells fargo. that is what the head of the retail business has spent her some are doing after the bank scandal has shaken stairs. shares. that includes coming down senior positions and even give tablets to push customers to the bank's mobile app. our bloomberg financials reporter is well known to us all. laura, can she win?
every time a company puts in a ceo to change the optics of a company, it might work in the end, but the female ceo gets a lot of kicking along the way. i'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's a difficult position. laura: it can happen and gender roles can play a role here and financial firms. may mac is actually the retail bank had and we have a different ceo. that he at the time did. she really is overseeing this overhaul of the retail bank. we talked to her on a break that she had at this hilton golf resort in phoenix where she was talking with the bank leaders and training them and saying this is what we would like to see coming up here in the retail bank =. we want our tellers looking more at technology. sort of a softer approach than this hardcharging sales culture
that got the bank in trouble. a lot oft feels like the personal interaction has gone from banks even if you still want to branch, which are becoming fewer and farther between. is that the way forward when it comes to profitability? surely customers will go to where the best deposit interest rates are,. laura: cost of beta is low for banks everywhere. that is not a lot of community banks have had to deal. what mary mac is doing that is his idea of reputational risk. a lot of clients are not going to wells fargo anymore to open up new accounts. they are not applied for new credit cards. she's trying to get partly the revenue picture but also believe the cost side and dealing it back. the community bank in the fourth quarter, i can leave a chart to show that. it showed a real drop in profit and that community bank, which is always been a strength for wells fargo.
that was the quarter right after we first learned about the sale scandal. nejra: technology plays a big part in this as well, doesn't it? laura: exactly. that's a way that banks can look at cutting costs. if they are able that customers not deal with that heller who they have to pay on an hourly basis and do with this preferred atm's, that's a lot cheaper. nejra: what does that mean for headcount if they are encouraging customers to use tablets? is wells fargo cutting headcount across community banks? laura: that was one question that we talked to mary about and asked her, houses working if you're cutting branches any of cut 88 so far this year, faster than any of your competitors? does that mean we will see the frontline staff leaving the bank? what she told me is that actually know, they have been able to keep that down. only 10 people, fewer than that have lost their jobs as part of this reshuffling and all these
bank closures, which is really pretty interesting. the reason that mary mac said that was able to happen is that they are shifting these workers to other branches that are already open or even letting them apply for other positions within the bank. vonnie: i have seen some criticism over the last couple of days that the bank might be trying to clean up its act, but it's really shifting around executives. these executives were all there as the crises were building and malevolent actions were being performed. laura: and that is a fair criticism that none of these executives can run away from. mary mack was with the bank for many years, a few decades actually. she worked elsewhere within the bank and the advisors area, the brokerage unit. theses they are when things were going on, but she was not part of the retail bank. they brought her into really overhaul that part. vonnie: laura keller, thank you. nejra: coming up, axios
vonnie: breaking news -- according to axios, a review from white house chief of staff john kelly on whether steve bannon is set to keep his job is imminent. axios siding administration officials. the news website saying that they expect dan and to be fired. bloomberg news has not confirm the details. our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli joins us from the d.c. bureau. we were waiting on a review by chief of staff john kelly. apparently that is going to be negative for steve bannon.
if that does indeed happen, would it be a surprise to anyone? kevin: no, i've spoken to three political republican consultants who are frequently worked with the white house. all them eagerly anticipating this. one told me that this will hopefully have a "clean slate for this white house. : " another said it will hopefully stop some of the damage but not all of it. a third told me that this has been "imminent" for quite some time. several folks i've spoken within the last 24 hours said that the idea that steve bannon, while the president's chief strategist will be able to rein in president trump from his rhetoric, it's foolish to think that. you can see trump speaking off prompter at a press conference several days ago. vonnie: whether retired or not, will he still have the presence
ear?'s there were plant people close to the president who got distant but now again have the ear of the president. kevin: general kelly removing anthony scaramucci from the communication job on his first full day in office. reince priebus and sean spicer also being pushed out of the of ministration. -- out of the administration. it also looks like steve bannon, a decision on him is imminent. the reaction to this will be interesting to watch as president trump is scheduled to go to arizona on tuesday. if you look at the president's twitter account just in the past hour or so, he is tweeted that som support amongst his base has never been stronger. he continues to talk to his base throughout all this, but clearly showing or least general kelly is aware that while the president is heading to camp
david to discuss military plans on afghanistan, there is some tense criticism about steve bannon and the role that steve bannon has had following charlottesville. vonnie: we will continue to wait for that news to come. cirillirateful to kevin , our chief washington correspondent. saying a view from white house chief of staff john kelly is imminent and it will include whether or not steve bannon is being fired. nejra: quick look at oil spiking now. wti crude up. brent crude up almost 2%. the bts still short of $48 a barrel and still heading for a third weekly loss. this is bloomberg. ♪
jonathan: from new york city to our bureaus worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ coming up, amazon shorts the debt issuance spend. almost $3ught trillion worth of bonds alone. could quitary cohn amid reports the next day that steve bannon could be fired. countdown to jackson hole. janet yellen and mario draghi meet in wyoming. we