tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg August 22, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
welcome to "bloomberg markets:." ♪ worldloomberg headquarters in new york, here are top stories on the bloomberg and around the world. hedge fund billionaire ray dalio is worrying about washington. stocks continue to rally and we look into the market's potential next step. president trump reverses course from campaign positioning and will lose -- leave u.s. troops in afghanistan. we hear on why the president had three options for afghanistan. apple is set to reveal the iphone 8 and bloomberg has the scoop on some of the features. want tolot you don't miss. first, abigail doolittle is with us halfway into the trading day. rallying.e are for the dow, s&p 500, and the
nasdaq. the best day for the three major averages since last monday. the tech heavy nasdaq is gaining by the most. we have a risk on tone. i was enough saying this is par for the course that we have seen areas of -- we have seen investors shake off geopolitical tension. let's hop into the bloomberg and look at this great chart. #btv 2006. we have the percentage of dow stocks above the 200-day moving average. buyers are in control good below tells us buyers are slipping away and sellers stepping in and the numbers of members above the 200-day living average starting to drop closer to 50%. last and today may not the advance to decline line is
starting to sag. we will be paying attention to this, but this is something to think about going ahead with stocks higher today. driving stocks higher, lots of the high quality tech and internet names. apple, google, and amazon -- microsoft, and amazon. dow, nothing new here fundamental. we have excitement for apple around the new iphone 8 or , but this represents investors going back toward high-quality, high growth technology names. something that poll sweeney -- onl sweeney says is typical a risk on day you see a nice rally for these stocks. not surprising since we have this rally if you look at a one-month chart of the vix. it is up on the month and we had a big return to volatility supported by that declining breadth for the dow jones
industrial average. what will be interesting if we were to chart this roughly so long as the vix is above that last low, we could see it pop back up to those highs. a return to volatility and august and september weak for stocks. lots of moving around for investors. vonnie: we are glad you are here to cover it all for us. we will stick with the market isause ray dalio said he tactically reducing risk because he sees government paralysis. "i see no economic risk on the horizon, i am concerned about growing external and internal conflicts leading to impaired government inefficiency." my guest now has written about the threat from political headlines and sees real growth improving. debusscheres dennis
. dennis, between the economic volatility and uncertainty and political volatility and uncertainty and the markets that seem to be grinding higher, it's difficult to know where to start. dennis: i think the overall market call is relatively uninteresting. clearly dalia is correct -- dalio is correct and there will a lack of stability. you have a federal reserve with no interest seeing after prices decline. we are in more of an asset sensitive economy than we have ever been. is constrained and cannot offset a potential recession. -- has written about the do what it takes backdrop for it unless
that political uncertainty translates into significant economic uncertainty. it is difficult to see right now -- economic volatility is what i should say. vonnie: say the federal reserve doesn't have any interest seeing asset prices decline, the federal reserve does not have that and while people have been warning about various potential exuberances around the market, the fed will not not raise or cut back on tapering if they think they will bend asset prices. dennis: i think they absolutely will not do anything to tighten financial conditions. i think financial conditions are critical in supporting the economy, i think you are right they don't necessarily want asset prices to go up a lot and there's not necessarily the intent of the federal reserve was not to increase asset prices, but it's the only channel that seems to be impacting the economy. if you are only left with asset price increases and we have weak
historical growth and consistently missing on the inflation mandate, can they let i set -- asset prices decline? vonnie: it is none of their concern, honestly. dennis: i agree with you on that, but i think they are in a box. the alternative is what if they were to say we don't want asset prices to increase significantly and we will tighten financial conditions while we have inflation undershooting target -- targets. it translates into something else. vonnie: remember the taper tantrum? you did took a couple of hedge fund managers and you say -- market levels are not particularly interesting. you do have a consensus of where we might see the s&p 500 good -- s&p 500. dennis: most participants see the s&p 500 going higher and also think it is overvalued. 76% of investors thought the s&p 500 was overvalued and that's
vonnie: a couple of mondays ago the consensus was a 487 for the s&p 500. -- q4 87 for the s&p 500. for the s&p 500. dennis: we have seen some estimates go down for the market, nobody has a lot of interest in being negative on the market right here knowing there is this what ever it takes backdrop where central bankers globally have zero interest of seeing financial conditions tighten too much. vonnie: let's move to the factors you are looking at that hedge funds are liking and not liking. dennis: yes. great question. when we look at the factors right now, hedge funds -- we will do this from the 13f filings, there are overweight momentum and gross factors an , whichight value factors everyone seems to be talking about which raises the risk that
political uncertainty raises -- rain -- remains high. hedge funds have been outperforming and you take down your exposure, i.e., technical reforms. the other side of this, which is the most interesting call we can make right now leading -- with respect to dalio. i think week index dollar and political risk is priced in, what happens to the strong economic growth when it actually sees improvement in potential for tax reform happen and maybe just a little bit of higher inflation? you could be talking about a significant dollar reversal. the most influential macro factor or macro variable over traditional value right now is the u.s. dollar. any turn in the dollar means value will outperform. vonnie: if you had to choose whether it would go higher or not question mark dennis: u.s. dollar up is the most interesting call right now against consensus. vonnie: final question, but you
say hedge funds are reducing exposure to technology stocks and financials, yet you in your own portfolios are recommending overweighting things like financials, energy, and i.t. isnis: the energy one clearly not working, there's not much on that for now. although i do expect it to reduce some exposure to technology, i don't think it is anything like we saw over the past year where we saw a significant increase in value on the expense of growth. over the next three to five years, inflation will be very low. you have to own structural companies that can grow, that is tech. over the long-term, financials. micro and a macro story there. vonnie: thank you to ever core leader of the portfolio research team, dennis debusschere. let's check in on first word news with mark crumpton. mark: president trump will
travel near the border with mexico today to do the patrol equipment and facilities in yuma, arizona. the president will review calls to fund the wall to keep out people trying to enter the u.s. illegally. discussp is expected to the decline in illegal border crossings since he took office and will hold a rally in phoenix. angela merkel went looking for the youth vote today. she was at the biggest computer gaming convention. it's estimated 3,000,001st-time voters could be in play in next month's election. in singapore, the remains of u.s. sailors have been found. divers discover the remains in a flooded compartment of the uss john s. mccain according to the commander of the u.s. pacific fleet. the lesion authorities have found an unidentified -- malaysian authorities have found
an unidentified body. another warning for north korea. kim jong-un's rizzi -- regime "ruthlessca will face -- global news 24 hours a day, powered by more 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg did -- this is bloomberg. vonnie: president trump at afghanistan to the list of issues that defy an easy fix. avridis what james str thinks about why the president had three options and why they are all bad. president trump is about to board air force one traveling to phoenix, arizona. he will hold a rally scheduled for 10:00 p.m. eastern.
♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets -- "bloomberg markets." i am vonnie quinn. you are looking at marie 1. donald trump will disembark and had to air force 1. there is the president disembarking from marine 1. he will make the flight to phoenix on air force 1 and scheduled to land around 7:00 p.m. eastern to give a make america great again rally at
10:00 p.m. eastern. the president is on his way to the rally in phoenix at the phoenix convention center. sticking with the president, he vowed as a presidential candidate to reduce america's military involvement of board -- abroad and defeat islamic state terrorist. , hisal james stavridis career in the navy spanned 37 years culminating in service as nato supreme allied commander joins -- joined "bloomberg america's"daybreak: earlier. presentstavridis: the -- president had three bad options on the table. the one is to completely withdrawal, number two was a surge where you really push 100,000 troops into afghanistan. no one has the stomach for that.
middle eastrmous fatigue so you end up with this minimalist strategy. is there nationbuilding involved? not much. we are going to increase the number of troops in order to bolster the the afghans, who are the ones doing the fighting. when i commanded that operation as the nato supreme allied commander, i had 150,000 troops. collectively, we are down to about 8000 and change in the country now. to add 4000, it is not a game changer, but it keeps us in the game. david: explain to our audience why exactly this is vital to our national interest and perhaps more specifically for bloomberg, how this affects business here and our financial markets and our economy. admiral stavridis: i don't think this is going to have a big effect on financial markets. this is a very small list of --
t of troops. when you look at the size of the u.s. army, almost one million, we can maintain this forever if we need to. not big impact. it's not trillions of dollars as we were spending some years ago. the key is to get pakistan to play more collegially in that border area and the vital national interest is simply not allowing afghanistan to fall space,nto an ungoverned particularly as we see the rise of the is laming -- islamic state alongside the taliban. that is a lethal risk. i think we can keep a cap on that. i think it was a good speech and a good foreign policy decision. david: to make it more broad for a moment, as the president has to deploy the navy, troops
around the world, he has called for more defense spending. i want to put a chart up that i will describe that shows the relationship overtime of defense spending to have a stock market does and it really does appear that in general with increased defense spending, the stock market goes up. the you anticipate the need for increased defense spending right now? do and weavridis i move beyond afghanistan and look at what occurred in the last five years and that is kind of the return of great power politics. we are seeing russia at play all around the world. ukraine, baltic sea, black sea, even the pacific we see china rising. we see the rise of kim jong-un with a nuclear weapons program and tension between india and pakistan. these will be absolute crashers to the international economy of the united states does not address them in a global sense. does it mean we want or need to be the world's policeman?
we should do this with our allies, but do we need more defense spending? yes and if we do that we can control these global commons and it's the right outcome for the president. alix: is the president trump that deals with domestic issues different than the president trump that deals with international issues? markedly andidis: i attribute that to the team around him. on foreign policy he has the a john kelly,ttis, h.r. mcmaster, it is a very competent, grounded, global out looking team. i don't think he had the same level of advice internally and on domestic. i think we will have to watch the departure of steve bannon to see if that domestic policy attains the kind of fairly professional outcome we just saw in this debate about afghanistan. saw the rhetoric
around north korea heat up, president trump came under criticism being really aggressive. it gave china the ability to offer north korea something if president trump was able to back down. do you see that aggressive rhetoric from president trump actually helping in international issues? admiral stavridis: i think the best set of rhetoric i saw was the defense secretary jim mattis who was less george patton fire and fury and more cool hand luke, here is what is going to happen to you if you don't get this under control. i think that kind of approach is better. the rhetoric -- you can make the argument it is a catalyst, but i think longer-term you need a steadiness of hand. general mattis did a terrific job in that regard. the real key is china and convincing them it is in their interest to keep kim jong-un
like a dog on a leash and kind of pull that leash back a bit before the dog bites somebody and has to be put down. vonnie: that was admiral james stavridis earlier on "bloomberg daybreak: americas." time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. berkshire hathaway attempt to buy oncor electric failed. s&p has removed the company from -- s&p says berkshire had been on watch negative since july, reflecting uncertainty on how it would pay for that proposed $9 billion acquisition. cannot keep up with the demand for insulin pumps. sales will rise less than expected and revenue will be lower for the quarter ending october 31. they maintain their full-year outlook as the diabetes business will temporarily dip for rising in the second half of the year. that is your latest bloomberg
♪ is "bloomberg markets." i am vonnie quinn. one of the biggest corporate breakups was when who lit -- hewlett-packard broke into two companies. hewlett-packard enterprise which handles data centers, software, and services was the privileged offspring. hp was the runt of the litter handling things like printers and computers. now that the runt is outshining -- why exactly. pc's are not really going anywhere and printers are sort of a declining technology although everyone i know still has one. we all have to put in ink every
now and then. why is hp doing so well? >> the execution of this company they the market it is in, have executed phenomenally. component cost has been going up and they managed that really well and they have been gaining share from lenovo and the smaller nonbranded chinese makers of pcs overtime. if you look at what hp has done in the pc market, it is commendable given what lenovo has done, say. then he look at the printing business and they figured out a formula. they call it their four box model in which they say how many printers do i need to place in order to make my ink supplies grow well and how much can i extract out of this ink supply sale for the devices i have in play? they have done really well with that model on the printer side and they have done better than expected on the pc side. to be quite honest, yes pcs are
back -- bad, but not as bad as it could have been. vonnie: how come cloud is hurting hpe? googles,cebooks, the the amazons of the world do not want branded boxes. they want nonbranded boxes and not things from hp and dell. they are positioned early in that market. vonnie: from bloomberg intelligence, covering hardware and software. hp billiton says it is in talks potential buyers of the shale assets. we hear about the company's strategy from ceo andrew mackenzie as m&a activity picks up. this is bloomberg. ♪
i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. averages are continuing a 100 or thehe dow up seven points. the s&p 500 is up .8, 19 points up2447 and the nasdaq is 1.2%. for more, let's take a look at the movers in the s&p 500. macy's 4.4%. news get to the first word . here is mark crumpton. mark: thank you. charlottesville has decided to shroud two confederate general statues in black, which reports the anonymous vote to cover them came after hours of an anchor fueled public debate in the wake of the violence there earlier this month. some residents blame the city notcil and mayor for
properly policing the rally. treasury secretary steve mnuchin and his wife will reimburse the government for transportation costs when she accompanies him on official business. that controversy was created when the actress responded condescendingly to a critic on instagram. she had posted a sulfate leaving the government aircraft dressed in designer clothes and accessories and called the critic "adorably out of touch." defense secretary says the islamic state is trapped in the military advice that will squeeze them on both sides of the syria-iraq border. he arrived to meet with leaders and commanders, telling reporters that the days "are certainly numbered, and it is not over yet and it will not be about theme soon"
islamic state. three children were pulled alive after an earthquake toppled homes and other buildings monday night, killing at least two people, injured four and left 2600 estimated homeless. rescued the children and cheers erupted. globaglobal news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. withulletin says talks potential buyers for u.s. shale assets appears to be a concession to activist investors, including elliott management. earlier, bloomberg spoke with php andrew mccabe -- bhp andrew mackenzie. andrew: it is a small number of trade sales, but we are keeping the other options there to proceed with a reasonable amount of case. for now, we think a trade detail
would work best in >> how quickly can you complete and they that? andrew: it is too hard to say that. we have to be patient. we know what our businesses are worth. we will continue to add to their value through technology and modest investment. on the other hand, we do not want to lack urgency, and that is what we have other options in the wings if it is too complicated to execute in a reasonable time. >> it is interesting because on monday we heard from the french energy giants, they agreed to buy the gas assets, and one of the things they said is u.s. shale was not at the top of their wish list because it is too expensive. do you agree that it being too expensive and doesn't concern you about finding available buyers? ofrew: rehab sold some parts
our position over the last two years. this is not something that happened in the sudden way. we are ready halfed our equation. half of the remaining half was already on the block. there is a lot of traits that have been carried what generally happens on the trade sale is people get -- have been. what generally happens on the trade sale is people often go for what it is worth. it is difficult to compare trades because they are dealing with different horizons and so forth, which have different prospect to the the, we are talking to many parties and are hopeful. it was the pressure from activist investors. -- was it the pressure from
activist investors? andrew: no. we have been working towards this two years ago. we made it clear to investors that we saw limited opportunities to expand our business in oil. we feel that the margins in shale gas would not be attractive to us relative to other businesses we can invest in, so we started pivoting back towards conventional oil and gas, and that the same time we shale,tting capital in significantly increasing expiration for conventional oil. as part of the results, i have had successes there. vonnie: that was bhp ceo andrew mackenzie earlier on bloomberg. it raises the question, why are oil companies snubbing u.s. shale? why, what is wrong with u.s.
shale assets if they are cheap enough? >> that is the key question. there has been enthusiasm in certain shale places, and you have seen that in the permian, the most expensive to help if you are and oil developer now, but when you look at what bhp's offering, some of it is gassy, so not as available as what is in the permian. vonnie: what kind of costs are we talking about? what would be fair? >> if you are looking at the permian, you want to hit the sweet spot, where it is mostly oil, upwards of $50,000. i do not know if you will see that in this case. what we have seen from analyst is a lot of discussion about how they are in the checkerboard arrangement, and there might be sort of shale buy some, sell
some, the complicated transaction to move it around at the end of the day. bhp's: will they solve problems or the view them? >> there was enacted shareholder and -- there was an active shareholder in elliott, and we have not seen the reaction from them today to this notice. this dovetails with things they have been asking the company to do, so it will alleviate some shareholder interests and concerns. ultimately, the bhp portions will rise and fall based on metal prices, so it depends on what is happening. vonnie: and metal prices continue on the tear. >> absolutely. we have seen them go up 50% in 50 days, so quite a crime. vonnie: what else does bhp have to sell? is it all in that patch of its portfolio? tina: it is, and sadly, the
smallest part of what they are selling. they have a big amount of acreage where it is predominantly natural gas and those markets have not been recovering as oil has, but you continue to see a glut in those markets and it will be harder to sell that, i think. you also have acreage in the eagle ford, which they acquired in 2011, and that is going down to have to buy that after buying at the top of the market. vonnie: we heard from andrew mackenzie saying that some of the deals were bad. $40 billion has been thrown around from the investors as money burned basically by bhp bulletin. does andrew mackenzie get to keep his job? tina: it looks like for now. elliott seems pleased they replace the chairman role and brought in another fellow to take over and he has been much more amenable to asset sales and
getting rid of things not profitable in the short term. in terms of what the ceo said, it does not sound like the activists are looking for his job now but it would depend on prices on the sales. vonnie: tina davis, bloomberg managing editor for energy and commodities in the americas, thank you. coming up, the 10th anniversary of the iphone is adding to the release of what has been called the iphone 8, the next one. we look under the hood of their star product, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
sharesnce financials tumbled after the british subprime lender forecasted a full year loss after it announced it was being probed by regulators. we are joined by taylor riggs with more, 66% intraday. taylor: i can put that into perspective for you. it is the biggest percent change since 1989. if you look at the longer-term since it is at its lowest november 1996. huge moves today. a few things going on, the u.k. financial conduct authority is investigating the credit unit and projecting a loss. one of the things that has been concerning investors is the ceo departure is the tip of the iceberg. not say the shares are
investable until there is greater clarity on what is going on, calling these a quadruple whammy. i want to look because they revised lower the times. today, they had estimated a game of most 16 million pounds, now forecasting a loss between 80anywhere to 120 pounds. vonnie: how is the stock cheaper relative to competitors? taylor: i pulled up barclays for you, g #btv 2043, and we heard from analysts that say it is not investable and we need greater clarity. you can see it is bringing it down really cheap compared to competitors. i highlight competitors because of the inquiry into the credit card is this. robert in -- provident site itself apart from its competitors because they are a
nonstandard credit provision, giving loans to people with poor credit or job losses and that is how they were making strides against competitors. for now, a big cause today. vonnie: taylor riggs with our stock of the hour. thank you for that. the new iphone bar a set really high as they eagerly await the device. the 10thdes with anniversary of the iphone. detailsg has exclusive from san francisco. what can we expect the new iphone? mark: yes, this is a significant launch, perhaps the most significant iphone update since the original model and big-screen models with the iphone 6 plus. we are expect a 3-d sensor to unlock the phone and make payments to be the "crown jewel"
of this device, and eight faster processor, bells and whistles. an exciting upgrade for those who have been waiting for this 10th anniversary model. vonnie: the iphone is a minicomputer. what are acolytes hoping for with this iphone and what do they want? mark: i think they want a premium phone with this new oled display. we have seen a lot of other from samsung to lg, will he not phones with this new oled technology and apple will hop on the bandwagon and that will contribute to strong sales into next year. vonnie: does anybody know if all these things are happening? you have exclusive details. are there people working on the premise of some of what you said is going to be on the new phone? mark: a lot of apple partners and app developers try to get a
head start in reports from other publications, but i do not think that any of them have a heads up. we are a few weeks away. when apple gives a heads up on new features, it is usually the day of work you days before, so i do not think we are there yet. vonnie: many people skip the seventh generation because we're coming up on the 10th anniversary, so we are expecting a monumental announcement, even if it is just fun, and you color or stash new -- new color or something we are not anticipating, what could tim could come out -- tim cook come out and say and pull that great gasp we are suspecting? mark: there will be enough gates 8 the 7, 7 plus, and the and the premium design. we talked about eight last front
and back, stainless steel edges, thinner. i think the design will be the differentiator and it will be exciting to people when they show one stage how quick it is. it will be interesting how they demonstrate the future. vonnie: what about the add-ons and the ways to charge, listen to music, is that going to be troublesome? are we going to have to buy new connectors to use this equipment? mark: good question. i do not think the connector is going to change. there were rumors but we do not believe them to be true, so no connector change. i believe it will not be something you have to add. my assumption is he will be able to plug the lightning connector that comes with the phone into this charging hub and lay the phone on top to charge it without to plug it in from the bottom. the additional functionality is
not much. you have to plug-in something cool, andt it is something other phone makers, even palm, has had since 2009. vonnie: we are anticipating carriers will get to a price war because so many people will want the phone. what are we anticipating in terms of, the people will buy it? mark: across the three models, i think a lot of people will upgrade to the two lower end, which will be of grades to the s, startingd 7 plu $970. $650, upwards of this more premium model with the glass and 3-d sensor we expect to come in over $1000 on the days model for that actor, -- base model, so you also have to balance supply and demand. the premium ones will be harder
to make it the beginning, so it will be interesting to watch over the first three months of the launch. point, youthat price really are buying a computer. mark gurman, thank you for your exclusive reporting. time for the bloomberg business flash. -- globallobal is up is up with more than $1 billion in assets. against thends out benchmark index today. meanwhile in brazil, antitrust regulators are challenging at&t's takeover of time warner, saying it poses high risk to competition. the urge the deal be rejected unless there are changes. at&t says it will work with regulators to resolve the issue. believer. is now a
he is investing in one confirmation, a fund which uses digital-based systems. --id says the crypto cards cuban says the crypto cards outweigh other factors. coming up, the challenge of providing fresh produce to consumers has been an opportunity for often green farms. -- gotham green farms. the ceo will discuss why it has expanded from its roots. this is bloomberg. ♪
opportunities in urban farming. gotham greens has been a pioneer, building greenhouses on rooftops in the hearts of major cities, using technology that allows them to grow food year-round. the cofounder tells the story. is an urbaneens farming company. we develop and operate high-tech greenhouses and are working in the field of sustainability and environment team engineering -- environmental engineering. we became interested in growing crops using a fraction of the resources. at the same time, a recognized the growing trend where consumers wanted more local and regionally sourced food, so that is wendy lightbulb went off. a got funding and built 15,000 square foot rooftop
greenhouse in the greenpoint neighborhood of brooklyn and pitched to supermarket chains and invited chefs. within the months, we were sold out of produce. that is when we realized we were onto something and could expand. a compelling partnership came along with a market, one of our largest customers, and we crafted an idea to design and build commercial sale greenhouses into the roofs in brooklyn, new york. [no audio] greenhouses into thethe facilitn sold out that the produce that we started looking at chicago, a city with a thriving food culture and consumer base increasingly demanding fresh produce, and that is our largest to date, which is about two acres that produces the equivalent of about 50 acres of
conventional farming. his form, known as controlled environment agriculture, is a combination of horticultural science and environmental engineering. it was a challenge to find people with this unique skill set. we needed to establish an in-house trading for -- training program, so we take young graduates out of universities or high school locations in vocational programs and train them to design facilities and operate them. our company has built four greenhouse facilities across two cities with about 160 employees and we have experienced a growth rate. in our first year, we grew about 500,000 heads of lettuce. over 20r, we grew million. i believe the future will have us expanding to other cities, expanding into new products, product developments.
our motto is to harvest and develop within 24 hours to provide with the freshest possible products. ceo andthat was the cofounder of gotham greens farms. aboutour, we will talk to whether president trump's you strategy will claim a win in a war that is nearly 16 years on the go. a look at the indices, the s&p 500 is up 8/10 of a percent. the dow up .7. the nasdaq leading the way with tech companies up 1.1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
this hour. comment onrump's afghanistan is the latest on how hard it has been on his only i can fix it campaign theme. bloomberg breaks down numbers and looks at what companies will come out on top. the president's base speaks out on why they still believe in him despite recent turmoil. some more than ever. ♪ julia: welcome once again. president trump has announced an open-ended commitment to afghanistan that will put more american troops into the nation's longest lasting conflict. he says he will keep u.s. forces there as long as it takes to bring abou