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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  August 22, 2017 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT

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have lived. people andkilled 15 they appeared in court. france poses interior administrator said and out he used by the attackers have been photographed. found -- thewere remains of u.s. fair -- u.s. sailors were found. divers found that in a compartment of the uss john s. mccain according to the commander of the u.s. civic leave test lead. singaporerely thank partners, our malaysia partner, and everyone who responded with the urgency and compassion and tireless commitment. >> malaysian authorities have body, 10unidentified sailors were missing at an oil tanker that collided. conference before a
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the target of imperial powers. the same powers that view venezuela as a rebel on the 19th and 20th centuries are now going against the nation. venezuela has been caught in pitting sort -- strife, that president against an opposition led congress increasing power. the government has in at the local white house were president trump said he would not rule out a military option. republicans are considering a maneuver to allow 450 million dollars worth of tax cuts without offsets according to congressional aides familiar with the discussion. the move is being discussed to a current -- current policy bakes look -- baseline instead of a standard baseline. global news -- global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
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♪ >> live, i am abigail doolittle. joe: scarlet fu and julie are off today. we are 30 minutes from the close of trading in the u.s. >> very late training -- trading. >> the question is what did you miss? >> president trump of old a campaign rally in out -- phoenix outset -- arizona tonight. next crisisthe layout? we asked a leading firm during the financial crisis. if you're counting down to the next iphone, we have everything you need to know about the
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device and how it is reliable second-best strategy. we will explain. president trump's is time time adjusts in afghanistan yesterday was lauded as powerful and uncharacteristically presidential. of thet see glimpses fiery candidate trump essie takes the stage in a rally in phoenix, arizona. he makes controversial remarks on immigration to his presidential campaign pier 1 what we can expect, the bloomberg is this week editor-in-chief megan murphy. thank you for joining us. when you see these rallies, which are unorthodox in the history of presidents as president trump is in so many ways, what is the purpose of it? is he trying to drum up support for the immigration policy and the border wall? is the goal? >> this rally in context.
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you mentioned we saw on an presidentially -- uncharacteristically presidential bottle trump. to see himkely tonight. that has been a whip saw effect of his presidency. was on prompt her about afghanistan, and tonight, we will likely see a robust defensive measures like immigration or rebuilding a wall. we are one week removed from the tragic events of charlottesville and he is trying to move beyond that but also get support from very controversial policies. >> there were a few of these so-called residential moments before. how astonished would you be if he could continue his demeanor for even 48 hours? it seems like every time he has a moment, he tweets something and just goes back to his old self. >> i smiled but it is a serious question. the way we said -- with the way we look at this, they're not --
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there should not the serious situation where -- defending and trying to really rebuild a nation we have been enmeshed in for a decade and laugh of the presidential moment. we see it with our business leaders and in terms of how people are responding to the presidency. we see it in almost every other roof action. what we are based with his do the american people still trust that link carry out the promises improving alliance of every -- , --lives of every american it is not buying as it president leader. >> considering it had -- he has urged president trump to delay the trip, and the white house
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encouraged him to perhaps not go, not a lot of support. possibly neo-nazis on the other side. it is easy to imagine the worst case scenario. what about the best case in terms of what julia is talking about? what is julie trying to compass? isthe best case scenario freedom of speech. there will be a lot of protesters and probably more on freedom of speech and we know there will be molded -- mobilization and when i hard people are working to devote to fuse peacefully. we have seen violence before. hope that does not happen tonight. we really have to move to the into of there is so much the fall. a debt ceiling crisis and a potential budget crisis and legislative priorities.
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sooner or later, the american people will say, i was promised a bigger paycheck and better jobs, something more than what i was getting. the follows coming and that is what he will see. >> you mentioned earlier the tragic events in charlottesville. view -- it may have been how trump wanted to handle it. there was concern thursday that gary cohn would leave. concerns. do you think the white house has put charlottesville behind it in terms of focusing on it? >> it is amazing to pose that question given what we saw last week and it is only tuesday now. this cycle is operating in 20 minute and hourly cycles. releasingpresident responses through twitter.
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tonight is everything in terms of striking the right town in terms of race relations, acknowledging the suffering servant people have gone through in terms of acknowledging how resins the issue is. of hisseeing some biggest supporters deserted him. tonight, two senators, two of tractors, last night was a good moment for him in terms of resetting and being able to do a speech. can you show a unified -- in terms of his rhetoric? we will see. his detractors-- and there has been criticism of charlottesville. at full numbers of it you handled that issue, is still split on party lines with many republicans see no issue.
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republicans, a little above 60%, they say he handled his response to charlotte -- that a 60% of republicans. remember among those who voted for him, the numbers closer to 80 the 90. it is dipping about 20 points below where he should be getting among the republican base and they do not have many options. see -- be interesting to dependsis a state that on immigration, in terms of people saying it is displaced job -- jobs. if the president could remain focused on an economy focused mesh it -- message in terms of bringing good jobs back and returning manufacturing and making this a stronger place for you to live, he will do well. he getslem is distracted by the message and he is so focused on other things that he does not hammer it home and that has a his biggest week best. >> there is also a risk of a government shutdown.
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i read from our colleagues who said this has the makings of a entrance seeto the of both sides over the wall and democrats will not supply any for building a wall, but it is such a signature item for trump and many members of the gop. is this a significant risk that people are perhaps not payment -- pay enough attention to? be partll say it has to and parcel of any budget he approves. think we run the risk of his setting them apart from other presidents. there are many issues other presidents have fallen on -- fallen on. he will never get funding for the law and the budget. we know that and his voters know that. that will be more important. very interesting and hopefully a peaceful event.
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megan murphy. coming up, alibaba has to the close on a wrecked at high. what is driving the surge for the e-commerce giant? we will explore. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> shares of alibaba making it our our. the bath of an analyst upgrade, and the is here with more now. who upgrade the stocks? >> was james over atlantic equity. alibaba is having an incredible year. since january, the prices gone from $87 to 174 just this
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year. been seeingell has into the number since the end of last week. at a also looking longer-term opportunity of alibaba. omnicell retail. and if you take a look at my it is a revenue breakdown. that is international and cloud computing. there is a lot of room to grow. businessense of this -- l, the potential
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question has been up over 80%. the core e-commerce business, they are talking about that other investment. look at those similar to amazon, it is investing in movies, it's taken the chinese the south china morning post sounds exactly like amazon. they are seeing a lot of similarities there. analysts look at the calls generally, 94% of analysts who rate the stock rate it a buy. it has none on it, but it looks like it is not just this analyst. everyone seems to love it. >> a lot of people are shorting alibaba. they're losing a lot of money at the moment especially this year. there is so much and they have a huge part of the market in
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china. just over half the population china as well. room to growt more and alibaba is investing in trying to reach those as well, using mobile as well as desktop. steamsounds like full ahead for alibaba. thank you for joining us. >> time for a look at some of the biggest is the stories in the news right now. the chevron chief executive officer is said to be stepping down after seven years according to the wall street journal, that transition is expected to be announced next month. the vice-chairman could be a leading candidate for the role. globalreet banks say a market downturn is full speed ahead. trading patterns and shifts between securities foreign-exchange your merrill lynch sites investors lack of reaction -- still suggests a late cycle peak
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before the bear market against. potential u.s. buyers. companies are considering the portfolio which could bring up to $2 billion. the drugmakers looking to offload the unit to reduce debt. that is your bloomberg is this flash. >> after a month of activist pressure, talks to sell its u.s. shale assets. the change in strategy appears to be for activist event -- management. company plans to exit u.s. shells earlier in asia. with a prepared strategy is a small number of trade but we are keeping the other options there so we can proceed with a reasonable amount of pace but for now, we think a trade sale would work best.
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say -- we haveto to be patient. we know what our businesses are worth. we will continue to add to the value through technology and modest investment. we do noter hand, want to lack urgency and that is why we have other options in the wings if trade sales are too difficult to execute in a reasonable time. >> on monday we heard from the french energy giant and they agreed to buy the oil and gas assets -- shell is not the top of the wish list. about it being expensive and doesn't concern you about finding buyers? >> we of ourld some parts position over the last two
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years. it is not something that is a happened in a sudden weight. already the remaining half of the talk today, half of the month -- of the remaining half is already on the block. a lot of trades happen. what generally happens is people get proper engineers involved in the do proper assessments and they seem -- it is often quite difficult to compare traits because they're dealing with different types and horizons and so on, which have different prospect of it he. we are talking too many parties. -- talking to many parties. >> was that the pressure from these activist investors? >> know, we have been working toward this. two years ago, we made it clear
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that when we looped around the world, we saw very limited opportunities to expand our business in oil. we felt the margins in shale gas would not be attractive to us relative to the other businesses we could invest in. we start pivoting back toward samentional gas and at the time we were cutting n shale and cutting the number, we significantly increased conventional oil and i have been able to finance their. >> that was the ceo speaking on bloomberg markets: asia. up, germany passes index has made gains over the -- s&p 500 this month. we feeling so hopeful to will look of the diversions in equities and sentiment. this is bloomberg.
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>> toadies rallied big but now more and more are hedging. top, we have the calls in the spider etf utilities, the present which is on the bottom. we have seen it rally this year up by 12%. we have seen that ratio near the highest since last september. but 11 months, investors are maybe saying they want to lock in or hedge can some losses. matt is an equity strategist we will talk to in a few minutes. in theare adding a hedge options market in case we get a decent reversal in the bond market.
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when you see yields go up, you tend to see utilities get hurt. servicing costs go up and they tend to have relatively high dividend yields. interesting phenomenon to continue to keep an eye on especially as we see the fed winding down its downs sheet. >> we have seen rates fall this year but always with a nervousness that they might shoot that up. that is nicely reflected in the utilities. we have all these guests coming on tv and other things. anywhere outside of the u.s., we always hear let's look at interesting tough going on in germany. line is the survey, german expectations of economic growth. p to in june, that is this white line. last threee for the months. little bit of fading optimism in germany and perhaps it could be due to a concern. thee it's because of
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literature the car industry rolling over perhaps on a global business -- global basis. ratio forine is the the s&p 500. despite all the calls for the cheapness of european equities and the case for europe, you see some mediocre actual returns in the data. the u.s. close to all-time highs. it is interesting to pay attention to. maybe one of the popular narratives has a few >> in it for me. >> something i have paid attention to is the diversions between the dow and the dax. -- >>small cap is really underperforming large-cap. it is up about 1% year to date. the reason it could be a concern -- maybe it is
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should suggest there are jitters on the part of investors. on both the s&p 500 and the russell 2000, in blue we have the s&p 500. bullish large-cap. futures are short on the 2000 small-cap. the other reason this is a concern to me is that can 2007, we saw a rollover in august. >> concern about some of the .rump trade >> it might not be as optimistic as people thought. the market closes next. less than four minutes into the
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close of trading. it looks like stocks will close of the session particularly for the s&p 500 and nasdaq, up by more than 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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got you outnumbered. the dinosaurs' extinction... don't listen to them. not appropriate. now i'm mashing these potatoes with my stick of butter... why don't you sit over here.
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find your awesome with the xfinity stream app. included with xfinity tv. more to stream to every screen. ♪ joe: --
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the s&p 500, coming for second day, and of the nasdaq, also hitting a high for june. i am abigail doolittle. julie: i'm julie hyman. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. in live ontuning twitter, welcome to our closing bell coverage, every day from 4:00 to 5:00 eastern. let's start with stocks. it was quite a day for the u.s. major averages. all of them, gaining, the biggest gain for the nasdaq since june 28. although, the numbers bounce around a little as they settle. the biggest gain for the dow going all the way back to april, if it holds at this level. april 25, indeed. all this is on lower volume, as we are in the midst of august.
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volume on the s&p is about 15% below the average. in terms of the big movers on the day, a renewed interest in retail on the session. dsw, designer shoe warehouse, having its best session since 2005. also an unexpected gain in its calm sales, driven by an unexpected demand in ladies shoes. going inoking at coty the opposite direction. tumbling the most since it went public for years ago. it shows the integration of beauty brands that it bought from png is still challenging the company. macy's has been bouncing back, it has been declining recently. it named the former ebay vice president as president, so a little bit more technology exposure there. and chevron, a reaction to the
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wall street journal report that downwatson plans to step as ceo of the company. the journal, citing a person familiar with the matter. those chairs, finishing up half a percent. joe: let's take a look at the government bond market, in the u.s.. the 10 year yield up to 2.21%. this is what you would expect to see during a risk on day like today. people are buying stocks and selling off treasuries. 2.21 percent is still at the lower end of the range. we are also seeing higher rates in italy, perhaps less of a good sign, reflecting ongoing concerns about the political situation there, and the inability to dispatch with the radical five-star movement. a little anxiety in italy has not gone away, so we are seeing a tick up of about 2.1% on the 10 year.
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we are not entirely confirming this risk on take your. if we take a look at the new zealand dollar to the dollar, down in fact, and there is thiss -- some talk that currency is somewhat stretched and we may see it unwind more. and the euro is up just fractionally. if it was a real risk on day you might seal that new zealand dollar higher and that euro higher. let's look at the intraday chart of bitcoin. that is unbelievable. it was down 10%, and now finishing higher by 2%. it is par for the course, with the bitcoin going in all sorts of directions. think it is possible to characterize this as risk on, with quite a bit of uncertainty and volatility. it is hard to know. joe: looking at more
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conventional commodities. at theake a look commodity landscape. gold, selling off a little bit today. again, part of a pullback from the safe havens, but not dramatically. still below $40 a barrel on west texas intermediate. of the volatile industrial commodities, pulling back a little bit, but still, quite high relative to recent history. up as some ofd, these industrial commodities surge, with lead gaining 3%. julie: what you miss? our next guest says there are plenty is -- plenty of reasons to be positive. millerley is with
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-quebec. there is this continuing weakness in small-cap read take a look at the bloomberg and i will describe the chart i am showing. it has slipped below its 200 a moving average at this point. what are make of this now-waiting gain of small caps versus the large caps? is definitely concern -- a tocern on a short intermediate term basis. stocks continue to be leading indicator of the economy. in 2015, the russell 2000 rolled over about a month before the market did, and resulted in a correction of about 12% in the s&p. the russell ended up in a bear
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market, down around 20%. i am not saying that is happening, but it shows that, between the small caps rolling over, and a number of stocks above their 200 a moving averages, we are seeing a little bit of a deterioration in the internals. the combination of the internals in the small caps makes me think we will see a downside before this plays out. sticking with the idea of the internals deteriorating, we have a great chart on the bloomberg. it talks about the nasdaq 100, because everybody's talking about how tech is hot this year. this doesn't show the nasdaq well above that 200 a moving average. but below, we see the number of members that are above the 200 a moving average really shrinking, right now at 44%. but importantly, below a level of support, similarly to what
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happened in 2015 and 2016. we remember that risk off in the beginning of 2016. are you can to assert -- are you concerned about these signals? >> the number of stocks above the 200 day moving average and nasdaq, andus the you also seed it in the s&p 500 and the dow, which are up about 60% in the stocks above 200 day. and then you have the new york the new york stock exchange index, and the russell 2000, that are below >. the foundation in this rally is not as strong as we would like it to be, even if the fundamentals are improving. back awant to bring chart looking at the relative underperformance of germany's index, versus the s&p 500. equities, and-us
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we don't need to rehash those arguments. but lately, the trade isn't working, as viewers can see line.g at that teal do have any explanations for why it isn't working? this is definitely something i have been talking about for a couple of weeks now. with what is going on in germany, and if you look at the european stock market, the euro stoxx 600 index has been rolling over a little bit. when we start to see fundamental the terrier ration of the internals, i start to look at, what are the crowded trade? -- crowded trades? beause those things seem to the catalyst for when the market rolls over. the euro has had a huge run but in the last mark, -- in the last month, it has petered out.
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the futures guys are loaded to the gills on the euro. and talking about some of these sentiments, these business sentiment surveys, showing disappointment. again, we are not so much worried that europe is going to roll over and fall out of bed, but when everyone turns to one side, it turns out it is not as strong as people thought, so that could b.a.t. catalyst here as we going to these months of august and september. catalyst, is say the implication that, people who have losing trades might start selling more than just those traits? trades?ose yes, and when we look at what is going on with leverage, leverage is absolutely horrible leading economic indicator.
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but when people get crowded into one trade, there tends to be a lot of leverage in it. a moves in the other direction when that leverage gets unwound. we saw what happened when hillary clinton made a comment about biotech stocks a couple of years ago, and the group got hammered. when people have to unwind leverage, it tends to overshoot on the other side. when people have to sell things, and there is not enough bids in that one market, they turn to other markets, and the u.s. stock market tends to be one of those markets. matt, thank you so much. breaking earnings here on like it is looks beating on all of the metrics. earnings-per-share, $.33, one cent ahead of estimates. earnings, beating rest -- earnings, beating estimates as well. however, it looks like the stock is trading lower.
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second quarter billings growth, up 27.7%. the full-year revenue forecast point $4 billion to 10 billion. that is an increase over the prior forecast. i do want to mention the context here. about 36% yearup to date. they closed at a record in today's trading. so, it looks like there was optimism going into today's earnings report. turning to the shares of intuit, the financial software company, those are out and it looks like a beat for the fourth quarter. they put up $.20 in adjusted earnings, but the outlook is little bit light for the full year, missing the consensus estimates of five dollars and three cents. is forsensus estimate dollars and 80 -- -- is up to five dollars.
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this says michelle clatterbuck will be named ceo of intuit. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark crumpton. ime now for "first word news." the first new forces to arrive in afghanistan will leave in days or weeks. president trump, who outlined his afghanistan policy last night, is not confirming how many additional service he plans to send. today the state department says secretary of state rex tillerson believes the president did a thorough job describing the new
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military approach to afghanistan. >> the president has been clear that what will be different is that he has empowered our commanders on the ground to make more timely decisions, to conduct battlefield operations, based upon the conditions on the ground with battle plans that secretary of defense mattis will be approving. president trump is a scheduled to arrive in arizona this hour, four campaign sign rally tonight in phoenix. it is a stronghold of trump there are also some republican critics there, such as senators john mccain and senator jeff lake. large protest crowds are expected near the rally site. the state department is warning u.s. citizens about traveling to parts of mexico, as homicides are on the rise at resorts popular with american tourists, and murders across mexico are set to hit the highest level since the turn-of-the-century. officials say turf wars between rival gangs are pushing the
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spike in violence. the treasury department has sanctioned russian and chinese companies and individuals, for supporting north korea's regime. according to the "new york the sanctions affect six people with ties to pyongyang's weapons program. the treasury secretary says and enabling north korean destruction -- production of weapons of mass destruction is unacceptable. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. "what'd you miss?" the bar for the new iphone is set high, as analysts and consumers eagerly await the device. this coincides with the 10th anniversary of the iphone. mark joins us from san francisco. mark, i sat at the top of the
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show that this follows apples s second-beste' strategy. that it doesn't have to be first on the market with certain features, but it waits until it feels it can perfect them. what are some of the highlights of that strategy with the new phone? mark: anchorage everybody to take a look at the graphic. havecreen is going to brighter contrast. it is quite a contrast from the traditional lcd screen. moving from the low resolution standard screen, to the high rollers -- to the high resolution display, the resolution won't change that much but it will look so much better. it will look like those displays that samsung has been using for many years. there will also be enhancements to the ar functionality on the camera. and there will be this 3-d scanner. i was going to ask you if
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these improvements are going to be enough to get people to upgrade en masse? it seems like, no matter what, people are going to upgrade entities will sell pretty well. mark: that is exactly right. if people knew the release rate, people would already be waiting in line. there was a person at the fifth avenue store, near your new york office, that was waiting in line for weeks. when the iphone came out in 2008, there was a group of organic farmers and they actually brought their baby and the police sent them home, because you can't have a baby hanging around outside an apple store for two weeks. there are a lot of people who will really by the white -- by the iphone nobuy matter what. isn't apples job to
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anticipate what you want in a phone, before you wanted? clamor for 3-d facial recognition to unlock your phone, or is apple convinced a feature like that is going to pull people in? not just the diehards with the baby in the line, but people who might otherwise not be upgrading? i think that is the older, steve job. but at the same time, -- steve jobs philosophy. but at the same time, is anyone asking for the 3-d scanner? i don't know anyone who is tweeting about it. i don't have anyone asking me, why won't the iphone come out with the 3-d sensor? people get their hands on it and will start liking it, but not know, it is not necessary. onlyil: apple isn't the
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have any coming out with a new smart phone. we have samsung, getting ready to introduce the new galaxy eight smartphone. -- i imagineed they have corrected those issues with the galaxy seven. but we have a pie chart looking at market share in the iphone market, and samsung has about 23%, and apple, in blue, just 12%. so, samsung is really dominating this market. what does apple have to do, to catch up, if they can't? everybody loved the note seven, until it started exploding. that was such a smash hit phone. the early reviews were incredibly positive, can do a major iphone release. people really loved the bigger screen, the stylist. i don't think apple is going to
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shift to that giant, about six inch screen. but people love to that for the productivity case uses. there are so many people who want a phone for their only device. you don't want a laptop or tablet. they want to do everything with a phone, and the note answers that question. i think at some point, apple is going to move closer to that. you remember, with the six plus in 2014, apple moved do the five and half inch screen, which they are going to retain this year with some of the models. i think that were is the needle is going, having one device that does it all. samsung's already there and you will see more that tomorrow. joe: do we know anything about iphone 8 pricing, or the general pricing strategy, going forward? mark: what we know is there are going to be three models. upgrade theill
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iphone 7 and iphone 7 plus. there is also going to be a high-end model, this premium model like the apple watch edition that came out a few years ago. and that phone is going to be more expensive. people are saying it is going to be over $1000, some of the models in a high-end gear. the iphone 7 today starts at $650. and if you go all the way up, and you get the bigger, plus model screen, that is up to $970. so this premium model will have to come up about --, above $1000. mark gurman, thank you very much. to take out tv , watch us online, click on our charge, and interact with us directly. wereis that segment we just talking about, about the iphone 8, playing back right now.
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you can send messages, complaints, comments, questions you would like to ask mark. it is all on your terminal, at tv . from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ joe: "what'd you miss?" -- a look atbig the big drop in retail. this looks at the intraday outflows from this etf. if we could bring this up, on the wall. we can see this chart goes back to 1999, and this is every day. end, then see at the fourth biggest outflow.
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we had a big one in 2015, 2014, and during 2000, during the crash. fundon't want to over read flows because they can often give miss rating signals. they are just one indicator in your arsenal, but an indication of people pulling back. combine that with many of these retail stocks, the question is whether the selling is exhausted, o werther it will keep going. perfect segue, julie. let's look at the chart for bitcoin. your to date chart, of bitcoin, in relation to its 50 day and 100 day moving averages. in can see the buyers are control, really buying into this. showsat orange trend line
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us when it reverses. and we saw that earlier today, when bitcoin was down 10%. below that up trend a suggestion that we will likely see the consolidation of that. the last round of consolidation took bitcoin down below the 100 day moving average. if you can believe it, that is a 40% one-day decline. so bitcoin looks like it could have some pretty decent volatility ahead. remarkable. it looks like a normal trend but these are 40% swings. they're not bathing like a typical last set. julie: how gender and race affect support for trade protection. we will discuss. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ defense secretary james mattis says a islamic state militants are trapped in a military fight and that will squeeze them on both sides of the syria-iraq border. in baghdad to meet with iraqi government leaders and u.s. commanders, mattis said the islamic state in iraq is on the run. >> they have been shown to be unable to stand up to our team in combat, and they have not read one inch of ground that they lost. we are dedicated, from the american side, to the strategic which meansreement,
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we will stand by the iraqi people and their military. troops todayaqi reaching the first urban areas of the islamic state held afahern town of tallo to predictsedr victory. , remains of u.s. sailors have been found reported damaged -- aboard a damaged u.s. warship. divers found the remains in a flooded compartment of the uss john mccain. that is according to the commander of the uss specifically. >> rescue efforts continue. i sincerely thank our singapore partners, our malays are partners, and everyone who has responded with urgency, compassion, and tireless commitment. mark: mail asian authorities say they have found an unidentified body. 10 sailors were missing after
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the mccain and an oil tanker collided. the president of venezuela says he's prepared for additional retaliation from the united states, including wide-ranging sanctions. president maduro told the press conference that, i have prepared a set of measures and decisions to protect us against a commercial oil blockade that donald trump will degree. the u.s. has slapped a series of sanctions on venezuelan as the socialist government moves to consolidate power during months of bloody protests and a crippling recession. theh korea has rejected u.s. proposal to revise their trade deal. the trump administration has called the five-year agreement a job killer, and has asked to make changes to address the trade imbalance. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over
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120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thanks, mark. let's get a recap of today's market action. its the best day on the data going back to april 25, and for the nasdaq, the end of june. in terms of the best performing groups, leading the gains was health care, and industrials round out those top performers. "what'd you miss?" u.s.,s. mexico, -- the mexico and canada have wrapped up the first round of trade, but when it comes to trade deals, research may take a backseat to raise. joining us now is alexandra guisinger from philadelphia.
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joe: professor, thank you very much for joining us. give us the quick, overall view of your research. you argue that people have strong views on free trade, but that really they are strongly informed, essentially, about feelings of race. my research shows there are strong views because that is in one's own economic interest. 70% of americans don't have their own economic interests. they are looking at the expectations of how it affects other people. abouthey start thinking who trade protection will benefit, and whether they are for that sort of protection that will redistribute income. professor,curious,
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if you then see more resistance deals, for example if you are looking at nafta, more resistance to favorable trade deals with mexico, versus canada. do you see that kind of a split? it is true that people are concerned about who the other trading partner is. i think that is more of an issue then necessarily between canada and mexico. but yes, it is also true with mexico. joe: what us through your research methodology. you establish a way to determine people's motivation, by looking at who they perceive would be harmed by free trade deals. i started by looking at political campaign ads and looking at who was depicted in those campaign ads. and it was primarily white men,
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depicted in those ads. and that gave me the idea of, what if other groups were depicted in those ads? so i could manipulate a standard newspaper article about trade. i took 850 respondents to a survey, and i gave some a standard newspaper article focusing on the manufacturing industry as a whole. and the two other groups, i gave them pictures of people affected trade., -- affected by i manipulated the race in those different inspections -- in those different depictions. and i changed the names as well. and what i found is, two things. one, whenever you move from general industry to specific people, unfortunately, we see people's sympathy the climb.
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that is standard across a lot of research, when we move from a general, to a specific individual. africanyou showi american worker, support for protection declines much more than if you show a picture of a white worker. line, when bottom looking at a political campaign ad that to think that a black person losing their job, they were less inclined to be concerned about the ramification of free trade. you, what does this imply for people who are in favor of three trade? economists,,emics, with these explanations that free trade is not that bad and there are very few people in arms. if so many reactions to trade are about these got things, like issues of race, what does that
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imply about making the case for free trade? i think the general story isn't only about the benefits of free trade. that doesn't resonate with a lot of groups in america. i focus on why that doesn't resonate, and it doesn't resonate with minorities and women. in the futuret, there will be some better opportunity because of a free doesn't really influence white women or minority women or minority women -- or minority men. manipulate white men's byieve in free trade a lot talking about the story, who is going to benefit from protection, but you can also visit reverse. you can militant delete them -- you can manipulate them in favor of free trade. but it only speaks to certain parts of society.
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the free tradeon messages we often hear, they don't really resonate with women and minorities. would imagine at this point you have to go more toward the realm of speculation, but when you look at this political messaging, how deliberate do you think it is, if they are using trying to express these deliberate messages on trade, how deliberate is it? alexandra: that would be hard for me to know. i do think that deliberation may have changed, overtime. ofhave deliberate choices racial depictions, particularly in welfare. and the choice of not showing minorities, not showing women, is increasingly deliberate. women are only showed in these butabout 13% of the time,
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they make up a fair amount of the manufacturing industries that are shown. the focus is on specific industries that resonate with certain groups, and it is it is deliberate. we do have breaking news, coming from president trump's camp. president trump will not be pardoning joe arpaio tonight. former arizonahe sheriff known for his aggressive enforcement of immigration laws, by methods including racial profiling. he was voted out of office last november, and convicted of criminal contempt of court, and faces sentencing in october. this would have been unusual if the president had granted this particular pardon, and it looks
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like, according to spokeswoman sarah huckabee sanders, he is not going to grant a pardon. how hp is outshining -- meg we break it down. this is bloomberg. ♪
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abigail: "what'd you miss?" what are the biggest breakups and silicone valley history was when hewlett-packard is split into two country -- into two companies, in 2015. litter,e runt of the but now that rent is outshining hpe. anan? the split of the two
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companies, one was an enterprise segment, storage and it networking software. and the other one was pcs and printers. pcs are in structural decline. printers are in structural decline, and fast-forward to today, pcs are not so bad. and they have found a way to do well in a very weak, structural market. , the printerc. and pc division. sold the off and services business. they spun off and sold the software business. what is left, its servers. left, is servers. the business is moving to the public cloud of they are not exposed to bear. the cloud does not want to buy
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branded servers from hp or dell. they want to buy nonbranded boxes. hp, on one hand you get exposed to that business, and potentially margins get iffy. if you are not exposed to the business, it is growing. hp is in a structurally weakening market. sexy -- the ue n-sexy one is the one that is doing well, the one that is printers and look, i havet is, a formula, called the four box model, where i have found a way to make my printer and my ink
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relationship with a company much better than it was. inc. is a 20% margin business. laptops are off for percent margin business. it is phenomenal. they have found a way to make renting and printing supplies and printer devices better than it was. theyn the devices side, are doing must better by taking costs out of the equation. yes, it is not structurally going to grow, but my earnings are going to be better. and there are slivers of growth too.they are trying t, they have some high-end office printing equipment that they are trying to get into. and it reminds me of cbs viacom splitting.
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cbs, outperforming, shows that when companies have this idea of when a split is cool and not uncool one. the you can see hp has done much better now. they diverged in february. hpe has been lagging. printerve got hpe, the one, that is reporting earnings tomorrow. we have to wait into september 5. what you looking for from hp? >> more of the same. i want to see strong execution. portion ofee the ink their business, and the jet cartridges, i want to see that part of the business do well. and on the printer side, they are continuing to gain share. they have the number one unit share the market again, after a very long time. i want to see that momentum
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continue. is one of thes least consolidated parts of the technology business. they only make up roughly 60% or 70% of units. still a substantial amount of consolidation to be had, away from hp, dell, and noble. hp and dell are gaining substantially more share, and i want to see that continue. the top line may not be sexy, but it still propels earnings. julie: when you look at the main demand for printers, it is presumably corporations. as that remained steady over the past few years? >> is a combination. consumer printers are weak, but the high-end is ok. but the pages of being printed is what counts. thanks.
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joins us next to explain how the next crisis could likely play out. this is bloomberg. ♪
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"what'd you miss?" the quantumng about equity crash of august, 2007. institutional funds have snapped back, but questions remain about whether the industry is prepared for another crisis. earlier we spoke to aaron brown, former risk officer at a qr capital management. >> it is a much bigger world, too.
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we have a lot of retail investors in there. if we do have another quantum , i'm a risks manager, i don't guess what will happen. i just try to figure out how it will play out if it does happen and i think it will take a very different path than it did in august,20's seven -- 2007. abigail: there has been this proliferation of quantitative driven strategies in the market. so one would think they are more important than ever. peas, youur latest tell us it won't necessarily take down everything. >> the big difference this time is there is last -- less leverage. the institutional products have reduced their leverage.
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i think the impact on the market would be huge. month -- what it might do is a lot of damage to people who put their money into these products. i think anyone invested in these things should think about, are you prepared to take a month thee you underperform in s&p 500, or whatever your whatever yours -- benchmark is, by 5%. if you are willing to accept that, there are some very smart products out there. even just the market to market of daily losses, a more sophisticated investec -- investor, would be different. yes, when you have daily liquidity. on the other hand, investors
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don't always move the same on the same day. julia: what about those who run these funds? if you go back to 2007, i would argue there was a greater degree beliefrstanding of core versus an adoption of some forms of mathematical quantum strategies. they did not understand the drawdowns, or the depths drawdowns could be taken, versus someone who has just incorporated mathematical strategies? institutional investors, professional investors, people who should know better, are also surprisingly unprepared for drawdowns. sometimes retail investors get a bad name. but, lose a lot of money, and suddenly all those calculations
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you made don't seem so great. yes, there were more institutional investors and they were more prepared for this kind of thing. one aspect of that is, quantum has gotten much broader. in 2007, quantum was much better to find. , they are investing in a stock that most quantum's would say are not the right stocks. there is a much greater diversity of holding in these funds, then there was in the hedge funds back in 2007. that was aaron brown, former chief risk officer at a qr capital management. abigail: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. clatterbuck will replace the ceo of into it. she is the acting finance leader
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for the small business group at the company. leaving to pursue personal goals. more changes a blue apron. the company lost its human resources chief, starting a temporary hiring freeze, and in addition blue apron has troubled -- has had trouble establishing its- a new center since ipo. coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> president trump has just landed at phoenix sky harbor airport. you see him there, heading into his car. he is holding a rally in the city at 10:00 p.m. eastern time. it is president trump's first visit to arizona. he made fiery campaign remarks during the campaign
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reporter: i emma chandra, and you are watching "bloomberg technology." the u.s. commander said third wave of additional u.s. troops will begin arriving in afghanistan within days or
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weeks. president trump has not given an exact number of how many he plans to send. in singapore, the remains of u.s. sailors have been found aboard a damaged american worship. the bodies were found in a flooded compartment of the uss john mccain. 10 sailors went missing after the ship collided with an oil taker. collision inond two months for a u.s. warship. charlottesville has decided to cover up statues of confederate generals. there was a unanimous vote to cover up robert e lee and stonewall jackson, after anger fueled public debate in the wake this month.earlier president trump has arrived in arizona for a campaign style rally. trumpa stronghold of supporters, but the republican senators have been outspoken critics. protests are expected near the rally. in the meantime, press


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