tv Bloomberg Markets The Trump Economy Bloomberg August 25, 2017 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
markets, the trump economy. here the top stories we're watching this hour. another wild week in washington. trump takes on members of the gop and threatens a government shutdown. is there anything that can be done to bridge the divide? the looming fight over the wall -- why the president will have a hard time waiting that battle because of the debt default. the administration laying the groundwork for a massive rollback of protections of national monuments. opening up territory for mining. ♪ welcome once again. it was a wild week in washington. it let's recap. on monday president trump gave a
n address on afghanistan on tuesday was back to his fiery self at a campaign rally in phoenix. many worried the president would shut down the government over border wall funding. what would the week be without on trump tweet fest, thursday, the president blamed his own party for not reaching a deal on the debt ceiling. what will next week bring gekko -- what will next week bring? joining us from washington and here is megan murphy in studio. when we kicked off the week -- >> i told you. out of everything that happened this week, did donald trump gain or lose? >> the important thing today are
these gary cohn comments he made. agenda, a legislative there is a policy agenda and that is tax reform and then putting all their power trying to get this move forward. gary said this morning that he wanted to get this done. that isou talk to say incredibly optimistic given what happened with health care. the president said about members of his own party who are going to be responsible for getting this through the senate with mitch mcconnell. have seen donald trump throwing tweets at paul ryan, mitch mcconnell, the white house denied there were trouble there -- troubles there. how much do those tensions matter when you're trying to tackle tax reform? and with the deadline by year-end? >> it is extremely important. there was a great new york times
piece about the tensions between senate majority leader mcconnell and donald trump. what we have now is a suicide pact between donald trump and the leaders of his own party. , paul ryan and mitch mcconnell understand that there is a core of republicans who see that trump can do no wrong. to showd those voters up in the midterms in order to hold congress. tois in trump's interests have republicans hold the house in particular because the democrats would surely move toward impeachment on the other what trump is doing is alienating 65% of the country including his own party leadership. instead of understanding this is a delicate situation, he has down. down -- double
it doesn't make much sense. i can understand it in an election year when he would run as a populist, very much as he ran in 2016. but to do it before a midterm which will be extremely important to him and to do it when he has no legislative accomplishments -- when he needs something to take to his base, you elected me and i did something -- it boggles the mind. we have been boggled in washington but i don't see any strategy. julia: does he care about outcomes? >> that is what i was going to say. i think eli hit the nail on the head. we need to look at this president in a different paradigm. if you want the president to get things done, this is not your guy. he shows it zero interest in a -- in achieving these objectives. he is still in the mode of blowing things up. the establishment, has party,
trying to extend the base but it is mind-boggling to see if he wants to get these things come --, something as complicated as tax reform, this is not the way to go about it. julia: what is the bare minimum they can achieve this year? to get the votes to tie it down? and to get what these guys have been saying which is the political victory more -- is that more important than the details in tax reform? >> right now it looks like tax cuts are a likely option moving forward. it doesn't involve all the technical changes but it involves changing a number -- instead of a 35 -- that is only a short-term thing/ it doesn't get the growth republicans say they are looking for in a dozen solve long-term problems. companies moving overseas, it does nothing to keep u.s. companies in the country. julia: we could talk about the
debt ceiling. -- kellystory was about john at the white house. memos, press reports, before it hits the oval office. what do we think about that and how much credibility do we attach? >> think about the presidential speech on afghanistan. or president's biggest enemy positive reporter is himself. these tweets are written by him. there is no evidence they are vetted. look at the spelling mistakes. i don't have confidence in this narrative going forward that he will be able to corral this white house. certain things will change, more discipline internally -- the one thing you will not get discipline on is the president. everythingou bet
that goes into the white house -- eli, i want to ask you about and the 2020. suggestion that there will be a between --joint bid what do you make of this? dream of the no labels movement of the 2000s/ . it is too early to say that. if trends continue i would not be surprised if you saw a trumpican challenger to run a campaign on competence. democrats would be wary on a bipartisan challenge to trump. they are licking their chops looking at 2020. it would be easy to campaign with trump's core supporters.
has this guy delivered for you if things continue as they are? if he cannot say he got major trade deals, turn the economy around, something with taxes, health insurance, which it looks like the direction we are going -- that is a terrific situation for a democrat to come in and clean house. about does it say more the democrats than the republicans if they have to go through a joint did after president trump? >> the democrats are not making gains in their core messaging. the democrats have got to get their party and gear and consolidate support for a message. and look to 2020 and hope they have a candidate rise from this morass. probably have to get a podcast or cable show to promote that message.
megan murphy, you can read more about president trump's edition of bloomberg businessweek on newsstands now. let's get it look at where markets stand. >> happy friday to you. to all our viewers and on this friday we are looking at small gains for the major averages. it feels like a relief rally. i battle between the bears and bowls this week and we are looking at weekly gains for the three major averages and today is helping after janet yellen was in jackson hole. her comments were thought to be dovish. slipping between small gains and losses being hurt by a few earnings losers. thategment for the s&p 500 is strong is energy. that is the best. oil services company's trading nicely higher now. notent p ossa says he is able to connect hurricane harvey
to these gains. as far as the rally, some aspects of the energy complex, he says that if it intensifies and there is damaging repercussions then at that point we could reassess. right now he is saying he thinks it is transitory noise. hopefully that will be true and there won't be too much damage to the houston area and texas. finally, here is a very nice rally for the auto part makers including autozone, advance auto parts, and riley's automotive. constructive comments from ira valuationsaying, the reflect fears around amazon and the struggles that these companies and the stocks have had more recently has less to do with amazon and more to do with weather and other factors. seeing a nice rally for the auto part companies today. julia: thanks so much, abigail. what is that phrase? try being caught between a wall and a debt ceiling.
forecasters say harvey could make landfall as a category three storm meaning it is packing wind topping 115 miles per hour. it is expected to hit late tonight or early tomorrow. economic trump's top advisor, gary cohn, says congress contacts -- can pass tax reform by the end of the year. lawmakers have been holding hearings for years. the president will spend the next few weeks campaigning for tax reform but he is leaving the details to congress. president trump state -- president trump's state visit to the united is more likely to happen next year. this according to boris johnson who spoke to the bbc. trumpa may invited mr. earlier this year. both the u.k. prime minister and diplomats have been critical of president trump's response to the deadly violence in charlottesville, virginia.
it, say that trump got quote totally wrong." macron has been on a charm offensive in eastern europe to limit the relocation. period to 12 months. global news, 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. julia: back to president trump who seems to be spoiling for a fight with congress over funding a wall with mexico. it is one of the top stories on the bloomberg right now. jennifer jacobs has more from the white house. great to have you on the show.
talk to me about these two things because they are separate. we tend to group them together. the job of getting the spending bill done is raising the debt ceiling. what is the likelihood that those two things are tied together to get them to the president's desk. >> you have his advisers saying you need to go to the mat. it is worth shutting down the federal government in order to have leverage to get lawmakers to give him funding on paying for the wall. they think that is so important to his core voters. he is beennow, alienating corporate america, gop establishment, and building that wall is something that he said, every single campaign rally, i can't think of one where he didn't talk about building that wall and promising his voters that.
one of his strategists, steve bannon, before he left last week, said, even if you have to shut down the government we have to get that money from congress. is willing to go to the mat. pollsters show this is important to the voters. they give him wiggle room on many various topics. on this particular one, trump has campaigned on being a builder. he is a dealmaker. if he can't get the wall done they worry it would damage his credibility. he has a gop congress and he is republican. he promised this wallet he has to go to the mat for funding. julia: interesting. it multiplies the risk of the consequences of a standoff if these are tied together. but as you pointed out if we , youate out the funding can count the democrats out. what kind of a debt bill can be achieved here if we only have republican votes? >> the democrats are not going
to help at all. they will count on that. saying, weesterday do not want to shut down the government, that is not necessary. you had other saying, bad idea. you don't have all republicans in line with the president but that is who he will have to count on to get it done. i don't see democrats doing anything to help the president at this point. you on,reat to have jennifer jacobs. --ll ahead, representative joining us to talk about the role of technology infrastructure plan. this is bloomberg. ♪
said to be a boon for construction injuries -- construction companies. saying the internet of things can reduce congestion. suzan joins us from seattle. great to have you on the show. there are so many angles here when we talk about technological improvements that the government can focus on. how should government be approaching these improvements? your industry experience at microsoft, what role can corporate play in facilitating? >> i think we have to look at technology as infrastructure. so weacts our economy need to talk about it as infrastructure. making sure we have broadband across the country especially in rural areas allows many business opportunities.
also technology can be used in cities. we talk about them as smart cities and smart communities using sensors to help us with traffic and to be able to time lights better. we are learning so much with data and sensors and this will inform government decisions going forward. we need to make sure resources all available to use technology well and that is part of a infrastructure package. julia: i was asking about corporations. have you get the government and the private sector working in conjunction in order to facilitate this? surely it is not about just government changing the mindset -- it is also about corporations? >> it is about taking technologies that have been developed in the private sector andmaking sure we do pilots understand how those can work and how they can solve problems.
there is a great partnership between universities, the public sector, and the private sector, bringing these ideas into our local communities to solve problems. julia: it makes sense. in light of what we have seen in the last two weeks from the government with the ceos of many businesses across the united states publicly separating themselves from president trump in light of charlottesville -- you think they made the right decision? >> i think we need every american, everyone to stand up against hateful divisive dialogue and uphold our values. i think it is important that people have made a strong statement. as the business community, across our entire community. i wish the president has made stronger statements. he is not stood up for our value so it is important that members of the business community do that. julia: bye-bye separating by separating but
themselves have they done more hurt? is there a detrimental impact of them not working together in the way they should be? >> there are great projects happening. right here in washington state we have great projects happening technology sensors from the internet of things, connected sensors, to help us plan traffic so that sensors are helping time lights to move traffic. understanding pedestrian activity to help flow through have sensorse being used to help with energy efficiency in buildings. we have great ideas coming to fruition in rural communities, with agriculture, technology that microsoft has developed working with washington state university so that sensors and farms can detect moisture and nutrients. so that we are smart about how
we use inputs in agriculture and get the best yields for the lowest prices. this is incredible technology. the way they are doing this in rural areas where they may not the broadband is using blank spaces, the white spaces and the tv broadcast spectrum. these are exciting technologies community isness partnering with the public sector, we will see those deployed to solve problems. that work is happening now. julia: can i ask you about your views on tax reform? this is a critical piece of the jigsaw puzzle. do you think the administration is being too secretive? do you think they are failing here and not getting some form of greater bipartisanship support for tax reform? >> absolutely/ . for tax reform to work it needs to be bipartisan. the last major process was
bipartisan in the 1980's. people sitting down together from the beginning. having hearings from -- i serve on the house ways and means committee. speaker ryan talks about having legislation by the end of the year. i haven't seen legislation yet. i'm concerned there has not been a bipartisan effort. that needs to happen if we want to make sure we have a fair familiesat works for across our country and helps promote innovation in small businesses. . julia: that is the hope. thank you for joining us. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
directly in the path of hurricane harvey to leave while there is still time. he is also aggregate -- activated 700 members of the national guard in preparation for the sturm -- for the storm which could be the first hurricane to make landfall on the texas coast since 2008. president trump has treated that he has spoken to the governor, as they monitor the trajectory of the storm. harvey could make landfall as a category three storm meaning it is packing winds packing -- wins as much as 115 mile per hour. the united states has imposed new economic sanctions on venezuela. the u.s. also is banning transactions in certain existing bonds owned by venezuela's sector. there are reports of 14 civilian
deaths after saudi led coalition fighter jets on the you many capital.- the yemeni on wednesday at least 41 people were killed when aircraft bombed small hotel north of the capital. >> prohibited under international humanitarian law which also prohibits indiscriminate attacks. we remind all parties to the conflict including the coalition that their duty to ensure full respect for humanitarian law. yemen's foreign minister tweeted that it should be investigated. samsung's vice chairman faces five years in prison. a south korean court imposed the sentence after finding lee
guilty of bribery. $6 billione spent defrauding the government. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm markcountries. crumpton, this is bloomberg. julia: thank you, mark. our investors have been waiting all week for the federal symposium in jackson hole. >> i did not hear a lot of news there but i heard the best exposition of the way the fed thinks about financial regulation. she was very aware that there are trade-offs. that when you have more regulation it can affect lending but it also increases stability, break upisk, and major
in the system of the type we saw 10 years ago. she argued that financial regulations largely working but that it could be between an improved -- it could be improved. >> it is focused on her relationship with the current administration. do you think she did anything to harm her chances of reappointment because she came out in favor of regulation when president campaigned against it? >> she came out with a balanced discussion. she talked of ways in which regulation could be simplified for small and medium-sized banks. streamlining. there was not a huge difference in the way she talked about it and the way the treasury white paper from a couple months ago on banking. they are not in radically different places. her tone is different than the president's. when he was talking about getting rid of dodd-frank root and branch. >> there was a jamie dimon push
back. -- that bankainst lending has hurt the economy. where do you come down on that issue? >> the constraints on our economy have not been lending. it is been businesses having something that they are excited about that they want to make the investments. that they are sitting on cash domestically, a lot of cash internet fairly, -- internationally, they have a lot of cash. the lack of lending has not been holding us back. the idea of creative destruction. old companies go by the boards and new companies rise, higher people, innovation comes in and improves the economy. the paper suggested that is not happening that much these days. >> documenting a real decline in dynamism in the economy. there are fewer firms starting and fewer exiting.
fewer workers moving from firm to firm and that has been a because. the paper this morning was an attempt to quantify how big of a problem that actually is. they argued it was not as big a problem. i am worried that one reason why incumbents aren't innovating as much is that they are not afraid as they used to be. more competition would lead to more nation. >> it is worth repeating that you worked for a democratic president, barack obama. when you are in the white house seeing the levels of power, do you think they can be moved to create 3% growth? >> i don't think we can get 3% growth. people who have worked on all sides of the aisle have come to that conclusion. i should say, i would love to see 3% growth. i think it is a responsible to assume that we will get it. we have dials that will improve growth, expanding trade, immigration. is turning some
of those dials in the wrong direction, dialing back immigration for example, will hurt our economic growth. the biggest thing has nothing to do with any white house. , andis just our demography our population aging the way it wasn't in the 1980's and 1990's. >> we talked about how you sat in for a lot of negotiations in capitol hill and the white house, when you look at what is happening in washington now does it increase your fear that we would have a government shutdown or debt ceiling crisis? or d that knowing who you know there, they are going to be able to get over it? work together no matter what the president is tweeting at the moment? >> in the past these problems have been caused by divided government. the problem is recently we have opened up a new division in we had notthat previously had between a republican president and the republican leaders of the house and the senate. get their act
it is time now for the stock of the hour. trading, amazon will offer lower prices at whole foods starting monday. joining us is taylor riggs. >> i was your 24 hours ago when you broke that news. starting tooods was lower prices, that is part of the reason you saw shares down. forward guidance with pushing down those shares. they said there is more to come and that this is the beginning for lower prices. he saw shares down to their lowest in 2015. if we pull up the longer term chart. they get two thirds of their sales from the u.s. and in the u.k. it affects all of the nine stores. both angles across the continent. i want to talk about the european competitors.
have normalized this going back a day before the announcement. take a look at the massive spike in yellow. that is whole foods. white, the biggest decline are there on the right hand part of that chart. taking a big downturn there. dragging everyone else down there with it. i would note that our b.i. analysts wrapped it up pretty well. amazonu go up against you feel like you can't win, there is no way to defend yourself. you get frustrated. thing,the interesting with amazon, we don't know if they will be able to execute this appropriately. it is an automatic reaction. what about margins? concerned,is margins, we can cope with the narrow ones. what impact is this likely to have? >> putting pressure. if we step away from headline news, they were facing pressure before this.
you can see that revenue growth was elusive. thosee counting on margins going forward. in the u.s.,fore then in the netherlands. what about online as well? they said they6, wanted to double their online offerings by 2020/ what portion of the businesses on line and what is the hope going forward? >> you've seen them make progress. their sales are growing. there is some concern that it is not growing fast enough they od in the u.s. but the delivery and pickup locations have not expanded in the last three years. even as you have seen other competitors come in like walmart and kroger's. investors are worried they have not made more progress. julia: we will continue to watch
that one. now to the trump administration's latest round of it sanctions -- latest round of sanctions against venezuela. they also prohibit dealing in some existing bonds owned by the venezuelan public sector as well is divided payments for the government -- dividend payments for the government of venezuela. joinede insights, we're by diego. the chief investment officer at capital management. great to have you on the show. we were talking about this yesterday and the impact it would have. whether currently traded bonds -- it is as stranglehold on the government's effort to get cash. >> it has not been very successful raising new money. sensek the sanctions make because the government had to do something.
in terms of practical implications, transactions like the goldman one that became famous, the government -- the venezuelan government does not have that kind of money that they can tap. good sanction, very well structured, but i don't think it will have impact. venezuela cannot raise money on the market. julia: they wouldn't have been able to do it anyone. >> exactly. the foreign minister saying they reject u.s. sanctions, that trump is violating international law, he said the u.s. must respect internal affairs. what we have heard from president maduro, as you alluded to, -- what is the benefit of this type of sanction when they weren't going to go to market already? >> the thing is that, it is hard not to think that the trump administration is under pressure
to do something because of the violations of human rights. they been more directly , the more sanctions nicolas maduro can use that and say we are under attack. are well structured because they go to the core of the issue. you won't issue more debt, you won't be able to do these transactions. margin it will be more complicated for you to raise money but as i said before, a lot of the funding recently for venezuela has come from china and russia. this doesn't affect that aspect of the deals. we see that the reaction has been muted. a lot of dealers this afternoon, providing prices to venezuela before they clarify with their compliance with the situation is. most of the existing legal bonds can be traded without any consequence. julia: that trading will resume most likely once everyone recognizes in the interim that
is not a problem? what about default? they have $3.5 billion worth do this year. based on the level of stranglehold we now see, are they nervous? >> the bond that mature in november are trading at $.93 on the dollar. they traded as low as $.72 three weeks ago, that tells you that, america is not that concerned about the ability to pay. julia: why? countryr, it is a poor on the surface but it is a very rich one. they also find money somewhere. linked to reserves. the marginal dollar they are getting is very expensive but it is not that they don't have rich assets. they are pointing valuable assets to get the dollars
because the default for them is not a solution. that is the bottom line problem of venezuela. they default and they don't solve their problems. julia: you are saying they have collateral in oil reserves and when you have china and russia who are willing to bargain -- a solution here does not have to come from the united states. it needs to come from a global, coordinated basis? >> yes. it is a political problem that has to be solved by venezuela. -- cuba has the most influence on venezuela from a political standpoint. the situation is, now, the current government wants to survive. it is hard to see that a default helps them to survive. they will do anything in their power to keep paying. imports shocking is, for venezuela have dropped 70% between 2012 and now. people have been calling a
default on venezuela because no one believed that was possible. this administration doesn't care. they want to pay because it they don't pay, they are out. julia: president maduro can use the impact of sanctions to say, the united states is trying to interfere with our democracy. using the term loosely. also he would be accused of selling off the crown jewels if he is selling off collateral to the likes of russia and chinese to keep the dollar slowing or it doesn't work that way? >> venezuela is an interesting country in that sense. the opportunity for investments is not rejected as a political argument. it is not the same to say that investments -- if you are receiving investments by china, it is not the same as exxon. from the nationalistic standpoint. can gett sample, maduro away with doing these.
in the past, every time, let's face it, this economy has been in shambles. the politics of the administration are disaster but they have been blaming the imperialists for that problem and the war against venezuela. every objective proves that they can give that the world is against venezuela, it bolsters the argument. it is bizarre but it is the case. julia: do you think sanctions rise to oil sanctions in the future? what is the trade for investors? >> there is a trade. papersht some of these in the mid-70's, two weeks ago. sanctions is even when you talk to venezuela, venezuelans see it as a sanction against venezuela and not against maduro. that is why the u.s. has been smart and measured with the sanctions because they have made
tom there he directly linked corrupt public officials from venezuela and now with the ability to raise new money but nobody can portray the sanctions against the people of venezuela. that is what oil sanctions would be deemed by a lot of people. julia: the administration is getting this right in the sanctioning of venezuela. i feel like we need to underscore when they get things asht as to opposed -- opposed to when they only get things wrong. we need to wrap this up. coming up, the u.s. interior department completes a full month review of national monuments. what will it mean for mining and drilling on public land? we will explain. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
>> this is bloomberg markets, the trump economy. recommendations for scaling back u.s. national monuments. the proposal comes after a four-month review. the agency is not revealing the details of its plan which they mayiticism that be planning to open up more public land for drilling and mining. joining us now, jennifer, give , why do we believe that this is bad news for monuments? before thein the day report was fully transmitted to the president, the head of the interior department, ryan zinke he, said that only a handful of restrictions, that
suggested a pretty modest change in approach. conservationists started getting concerned that this would be a broader scale back. lawmakers on the hill are having trouble in complaining that they have not been able to find out recommendations for monuments near their constituents. julia: talk to me about utah. i just looked at your note in the headlines and it says that it has 90% of the site overlapping with coil -- with oil and coal reserves. one has to raise an eyebrow? talk more about this. ears is a monument in utah that true criticism when president obama made it a monument in the final weeks of his presidency. support from tribes, and has
criticism fromwn republican saying this is walling off territory that is known to have oil and uranium deposits. we know there is interest in that area. when energy company got permission to drill on state land near the site last year. we know there is interest and reserves and the concern from conservationists is, once you remove the protections, that area will be right for drilling. julia: we spend a lot of time talking about the debt and deficit here. i have to argue that finding some way to bringing greater revenue for the government makes sense that what protections are in place? can a president go, great, let's drill there. >> this is fascinating from a legal perspective. this 1906 law that the presidents are using to wall off
these areas to create national monuments has never been tested in court. saveaw itself does not that future presidents cannot undo things from their predecessors. while they have shrunk national monuments in the past, at least 12 of them, that has never been tested in court. we don't know what kind of authority there is. julia: watch this space. up, we go back to jackson hole and talk to a chief economist parity you can check out all of our live events. on the bloomberg function, tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
lecture are watching h.r. mcmaster six big get the white house press briefing. let's listen in. >> the u.s. and the regional shanty stood in solidarity with the venezuelan people and demanded that their voices be heard. but maduro chose to embrace dictatorship over his own people. as a result, a dozen of venezuela's neymar's -- neighbors added in lima, peru and rejected his actions. president trump promised strong action that -- but maduro moved ahead and ignored his holes' will. the president is keeping his promise of strong action and continuing to show strong leadership. this executive order does not need to be permanent. the president has said that "a stable and peaceful venezuela is thehe best interest of entire hemisphere." we will continue to work with
our friends and partners in the international community to support the venezuelan people until their rights and democracy are fully restored. i will tune it over to secretary mnuchin to describe the sechrist -- executive order in greater detail. mr. mnuchin: thank you. today's executive order demonstrates the u.s. government condemnation of tyranny and dictatorship in venezuela. the majuro regime has consistently shown hostility to , democraticlaw institutions, and the venezuelan people. this is been a catastrophe from -- for the country. nicolas maduro has financed his regime by halloween out venezuela through economic mismanagement, corruption, and the assumption of owners it -- onerous debt. today's action is focused on restricting the regime's access to american dead and equity
markets. maduro may no longer take advantage of the american financial system to facilitate the wholesale looting of the venezuelan economy at the expense of the venezuelan people. these measures will also undermine maduro's ability to a off political cronies and regime supporters and increased pressure on the regime to path.n its disasters under the executive order, u.s. persons are prohibited from engaging in specified dealings involving the government of venezuela and its instrumentalities. this includes state owned oil transactions or activities occurring in the u.s. and cover debt and equity instruments. in an effort to minimize the undue harm to the american