tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg August 29, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
♪ from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here at the top stories. the staggering totals keep climbing as texas braces for even more flooding from tropical storm harvey. some estimate damages could run as high as $100 billion plus. we had the latest. north korea sending another sign of defiance, firing a missile directly over japan. japanese prime minister calls it a grave and serious threat to resident donald trump says all options are on the table -- threats. president donald trump says all options are on the table. and we hear a take on the current m&a environment with uncertainty out of washington. let's start with a check on first word news.
there is a situation in texas and mark crumpton is with us. mark: tropical storm harvey is not letting up on houston. the fourth largest city in the united states has been inundated with floodwaters and an additional 20 inches of rain is in the forecast. has drifted into the gulf of mexico and set to crash the shore of the texas-louisiana border. to pop houston reservoirs are overflowing -- two houston reservoirs are overflowing. they are both at record high levels due to days of heavy rain. army corps of engineers officials have been releasing water from both but it wasn't enough to counter the rain, overspill floodwaters ways. officials say more homes and streets will flood as a result. president trump is promising texas will get emergency disaster aid quickly. he says there will be a very rapid reaction from congress, in
his words. there are signs that might be a political fight over the money. a top committee member suggests he wants to cut spending to pay for the response to harvey. refiners in south texas are starting to recover from the storm. are said to beo restarting refineries in corpus christi but it the storm makes second lan all along the texas -- second landfall, the late -- nation's largest oil refinery could he hits and the loss would only facilities in louisiana supplying fuel to new york and other demand centers. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. bloomberg'sing in reporter from houston. we are continuing to see the
devastation in texas. you cover the power and natural gas histories. how much of the city is without power? >> thank you for having me. time, thousands of customers are without power. the bulk of that are providers. sore are about 128,000 out, but 96%s like a lot, of customers have power and they set 10:00 p.m. on wednesday to have 95% of power back in corpus christi and 10:00 p.m. or saturday for most other areas. vonnie: that is phenomenal. it will be amazing if it gets done. i want to show viewers a chart in our library, 417 for those who want to look it up, the
gasoline spread widening as hurricane harvey looms. once people are able to get their cars on the road, that will be another problem. ryan: definitely. vonnie: what can you tell us about what energy companies are doing to try and mitigate any difficulties that might be longer-term difficulties? an: let's talk about gas production. the bulk of what is happening on natural gas production will be happening equal for shale in south texas and offshore production. bloomberg energies estimate that production is down about 1.5 cubic feet a day but they also estimate that gas demand for power is down about 2.4 billion cubic feet a day, so there is a net bearish case because the impacts on demand are stronger than those on supply. the real question is what happened as we get out of harvey and are able to look at the damage occurred to on short asset.
it could become bullish if the onshore impacts out last the offshore impacts. vonnie: we will continue to follow. that is ryan collins reporting from houston. our next guest says harvey remains a difficult storm to predict in terms of potential damages. it could cause in the hundreds and millions of additional damage. right now, this production is $42 billion in totals. , want to bring in chuck watson who joins us on skype. you are no stranger in savannah, georgia, and storms in that area. so us where you arrived at $42 billion? modelswe run computer and there are several interlocking models because the first thing we have to do is simulate the storm, how much
damage, how much force, where it has been, all these kinds of names. the second model is the model of the terrain, basically a model of land cover, vegetation, and human environments, structures, all those kinds of things. these are sophisticated computer models that talk to each other and come up with an estimate of how much damage has been already produced and then in this storm, the tricky part is how much damage it will produce over the coming days. vonnie: that number, is it paid for in part by insurance ,ompanies, from people insured federal governments, or this is purely damage and paid for and shouldered white texans? -- shouldered by texans? chuck: traditionally, upwards of
50% is covered by private insurance. for instance, if you go back to hurricane andrew, which is mostly a wind events, a little over 50% was covered. 40% will be covered for a typical hurricane by the private insurance sector and a lot is homeowners insurance. for flood, it is a different picture. if you look at allison in 2001, only 29% of the damage in the houston area was covered by insurance. we are expecting for harvey, less than 25%. our latest estimate from half an hour ago when we were taking into account some of the dam collapses that are in progress, may be covered by private insurance. the rest of that is absorbed by the consumer, paid for out of grants, or the fema program and fled insurance maybe two thirds of the damage from the storm's
is outside of flood hazard zones, which means the chances are consumers there do not have insurance. another big cost is infrastructure. even things like street signs, traffic lights, infrastructure, coverts, drainage, all of those have been damaged by the storm and that comes out of the local taxpayers pocket. 42, even though it is $12 billion higher than yesterday's estimate, it is not in the 100 billion plus region. how much of that infrastructure you are looking at, whether drainage systems, natural gas, pipelines, dams, bridges, how much is already older and would have needed at some point soon to be redone? that is a great question, and it gets into where you need those 100 area dollar numbers. we do have an aging
infrastructure and a lot of that need to be replaced do not get upgraded until there is a catastrophe. how do you account for that? that is a tough question. if you include things that you upgrade, you can get extreme numbers. a lot of the numbers you see the looking around for sandy and katrina, as much as one third of those expenses are what we should be calling mitigation, trying to protect against the next storm, not just the things back the way they were. vonnie: fantastic. we hope we can check in with you again looking at those disaster models. chuck watson, enki research disaster model. the red cross is asking your help with the disaster in texas. the organization has dozens of shelters running but it expects it to grow spiritually and thousands of texans online on the red cross.
your donations will help. ross.org fordc further details. abigail doolittle is with us, halfway into the trading day. we are seeing a little movements. abigail: we are. we have seen a major reversal. .9, nowaq at nearly higher. we also have the dow slightly higher. one movement behind this, erasing the risk off around that north korean missile is apple, a big reversal on the day. we see that the stock has been down but more recently, hitting another record high, despite that risk off tone we had earlier, up about .6, investors perhaps a few forward to the release of that iphone 8 and "the wall street journal" said yesterday it could be released on september 12. she do see shares rally. harvey andrmath of
what it is doing to the energy complex, oil is down about 1.5% for a second day in a row. this comes as some of the refiners in texas has -- are shot, and this is weighing on one segment of the energy complex, the midstream, the pipelines. we see enterprise products down sharp in the energy sector down once again in oil trading voyeur. however, gasoline is another story. let's take a look at a five-day chart, climbing higher, up about 10% as refiners are shut. gasoline is not coming out but there is real world demand for gasoline. the difference between oil and spread, is known as the this is not a year to date chart but received that it has simply gone skyhigh, especially around
the storm as the difference between gasoline and oil goes wide. in blue, the refining sector helping, but not the overall energy complex, down about 13%. pretty interesting and let's keep an eye on that crack spread and see what it does. vonnie: abigail doolittle, thank you. coming up, the russian investigation hovers over the white house and the trump organization, awaiting the possibility of those innate trump tower in moscow -- waving the possibility of building a trump tower in moscow. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: this is bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. in 2016, the trump organization waved a proposal to build a tower in moscow. it eventually fizzled and a trump lawyer said donald trump was not involved in the decision to abandon the project. he says the decision was made solely on the business standpoint and have nothing to do with trump's campaign. dive back into russia but we should mention at a time when the focus has moved away from russia, it is good somebody is keeping an eye on what is going on. tim: russia matters because it matters to bob mueller and the investigation into the kremlin involvement in the traces to election or business dealings will be a long-term thing because of investigations that take a long time to roll out and you will get periodic bursts in the probe or in the case that
came out yesterday in emails that had been invited to the investigative committee that should in a documented way about what the trump organizational and trump himself knew what did not know about russian involvement in his world. vonnie: he has basically said or admitted that he has wide access, but trump and his people have said that when it goes into real estate dealings, they gets shady because some should be off-limits. are any off-limits? tim: his original mandate when he got the appointment was to pursue all leads, pursuant to possible collusion in the 2016 election, but that was not in terms of what it meant legally speaking, and bob mueller chose to interpret that as he can look at the financial this is dealings of the trump organization. trump lawyers have pushed back, saying it is overreach by the
special counsel office. goes intoent yesterday, we got this news by " the washington post," "the new york times," and bloomberg news pursuing awas business deal in moscow while he was running for president. vonnie: we know that trump has pursued this this dealings, even recently when he ran for president that he pulled back but there was caveat's to the way he pulled back. there were no new deals and if it was outside of the united states, but -- tim: he has turned his back on those. vonnie: what new can we learn from what bob miller can find out -- bob mueller can find out? tim: all of this are pro-close, if any deal in which the trump organization might have been seeking financial quick propose -- is fair game, and that will
come under his microscope. vonnie: does it matter if the accepted quick pros from the likes of asia firm real estate deals? tim:: thi depends a -- tim: this depends on the chronology. we have no proof trump was trying to influence the election, we have proof the kremlin was. vonnie: we are president trump arriving in texas, set to head to corpus christi, along with the first lady, and there are some views of the plane itself, as the press is told the focus will be on federal, state and local efforts. it is unclear if the group can access damaged areas. the press was also told president trump will return to a different part of texas on the second of september, so he will return on the second of
september. right now, air force one has landed in the president will be on his way to corpus christi to meet with officials in a few moments. we will bring you the latest as it happens. still ahead, highlights firm our interview -- from our interview on what is ahead for the intraday market. this is bloomberg. ♪
and public policy and how that might affect economic growth and economic activity. i would say, there is a little bit more uncertainty today, if you went to the beginning of the year, there was a presumption we bit ofet quite a regulatory reform, which we have started to see. the reduction and reform of corporate taxation, and hopefully, some major investment in infrastructure, as well. regulatory reduction can be done administratively, so that is not as dependent upon the cooperation between the administration and congress, but everything else is, including the debt ceiling and budget resolution, as we discussed earlier. i would say those things, there
is a little concern out there, is our government going to function effectively? are we going to get some of the changes that would make america more competitive? i think that has caused people to be a little bit more cautious than they might have been six months ago. david: does that mean in real terms we are seeing a slower today because of uncertainty in washington? ralph: statistically, there certainly is a slower rate. the environment is very good. we had a high key in 2015 -- peak in 2015 and so far, 2017 is lower. is init manifests itself transactions larger than $5 billion, larger deals, and activity in that size transaction is down not horribly but down from even last year. david: is that because a ceo
there's really takes into account -- literally takes into account what will happen with tax negotiation as they pencil in the deal or is it on? ralph: the hardest ring to measure in the propensity to do confidence or what sometimes is referred to as the animal spirits of corporate leaders. ec to measure is equity -- easy to measure is equity prices today, debt is reasonably priced, the economy is growing at a reasonable pace, so all of those support m&a activity. the one critical component, which there is no government statistical measure of, is how confident do ceos feel and how predictable do they feel the next 12 months? nobody wants to do it deal right out of the gate that looks why
did you do that? so uncertainty -- vonnie: that was david westin interviewing ralph scholosstein, ever court precedent and ceo -- evercore president and ceo. president trump and first lady just taxing in air force one in corpus christi. they will get readings on harvey relief efforts. later, they will travel to austin, texas. secretaryhouse press talking to reporters on the plane that they will meet with various officials in corpus christi, including senator cruz and texas governor greg abbott. they will focus on state aid and the president will travel to a different part of texas over the weekend, scheduled to come back on saturday, the second of september. sarah huckabee sanders also mentioned it is unclear if they're traveling today will be
able to access damaged areas. the president will meet with senator cruz and texas governor abbott and the fema chief on the ground in texas. they are waiting for the president to disembark air force is with melania trump him, as well. the president in texas and it looks like a beautiful afternoon in texas, but further down the road, a lot of trouble waiting for the president. stocks are lower today, also, the dow is higher fractionally. this is bloomberg. ♪
one arriving in texas. they are going to be meeting with local leaders and local officials taking a helicopter to see some of the damage it hurricane harvey brought on that space. it's not clear according to the white house press secretary if they will actually be able to visit any areas on the ground. they have arrived at corpus christi. they will talk to officials about federal and state and local aid. he's returning to another part of texas on saturday. let's bring in kevin cirilli. he's with us in our washington bureau. president arriving to scenes of great happiness. maybe he can provide some hope to the people of texas dealing with a lot right now. >> the president arriving in texas.
we just received word. headlines crossing the terminal now. he will actually be returning to texas on saturday and vice will arriveke pence on friday. i spoke with several sources earlier today who tell me that this administration wants to do everything it can to make sure the people of texas field of the president is behind them, is working with coronary local and state government officials on all outreach. you are seeing dr. ben carson arriving with the president. we all know that the housing and urban development office of which dr. carson is in charge is going to play a key role. we also see lindemann handwritten chair of the small business association. , chair of theon small business association. to avoid any potential missteps
or criticism for them being not on top of this. vonnie: exactly. a group meeting with some of the local leaders including senator cornyn and the texas governor as well. you pointed out some of the people president brought with him including linda mcmahon in blue. kelly is there as well. a good show of faith from the federal government. it's money that is needed. what will the president do for the state of texas? >> there's two points that i would make. yesterday the president saying in a press conference at the tote house he was committed working with other republicans congress for the
impacted areas. this is where it gets interesting. traditionally this has been somewhat of a policy disagreement amongst republican. this is where it gets interesting. on this particular front. you remember hurricane sandy impacting new jersey a few years ago and some republicans feel there have to be other budget cuts accompanied for disaster release -- release funding. others feel the government should be able to provide for those in need during a situation like this. the second point that i would make is the issue of flood theyance is something that have been working to aggressively reform. as been met with a more moderate proposal in the senate banking committee. that is set to expire at the end of september and there has to be a reauthorization for flood insurance. many of whom flood insurance the thousandsts
of people impacted by this horrific tragedy unfolding in texas. this creates new impetus for that to get done potentially as part of the partial government funding bill that has to get done in order to avert a government shutdown. sayingsident yesterday at the press conference he was going to provide relief for all of those in need. he did not commit to a particular position on offsetting budget cuts as well as his position on flood insurance program reform. kevin cirilli, thank you for joining us. you're watching the presidential motorcade drive away from air force one. the president will be meeting with some officials in that area of texas including governor brown and senators cruise and cornyn will be there as well. includes melania trump and linda mcmahon. carson.
he will move on later in the day to austin and he will return on saturday to a different part of texas. geopolitical tensionshe will moy to austin back in focus after north korea launched a ballistic missile that flew over japan and landed in the pacific ocean. the prime minister shinzo abe says he has agreed to increase pressure on north korea. trump issued a statement this morning thing threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the north korean regime's isolation in the region and among all nations of the world all options are on the table. in bloomberg's national security editor. this action on the part of north korea. does it mean the president's rhetoric hasn't worked? it is definitely a new test president is
saying. you might remember just a couple weeks ago the president warned about fire and fury coming from the sky if north korea was provocative. president is saying. in the wake of that when it looks like north korea was holding off on some of its test the president made comments to the effect of they seem to be starting to respect us. in the last three or four days we have seen two separate missile tests. seen much of ae wake of that wn reaction from the administration so far. the un security council is debating or discussing north korea in a closed session right now. really the options have always been rather thin aside from a preemptive strike or some sort of military option that all analysts agree would be catastrophic. shinzo abe must be extraordinarily scared right now. what is the next step for the united states if the north
korean leader continues to ignore rhetorical threats? someere was apparently discussion among japanese and u.s. officials about whether they should try to shoot it down. typically the military can figure out the trajectory of the missile and make a determination. if it is headed toward land you try to shoot it down. this was clearly headed for the open expanse of the ocean and they decided not to shoot it. that would be an option in a future test. there's always more that could be done to pressure china and chinese financial institutions that have some sort of trade with north korea. that is a very serious option. it's the kind of thing i think the u.s. has been reluctant to or twopt for one isolated cases and china would certainly see that as aggressive action. the u.n. already abdicated and began to carry out sanctions against north korea and china was involved in
did implement. is it the case that china stopped influencing them or are the sanctions not enough to deter kim jong-un? of sanctions round passed earlier this month were targeting about $1 billion in north korean trade. things takeis these weeks and sometimes months to really fully implement these kind of sanctions. they have been fully implemented and that they have started to really pinch the north korean regime at this point. north korea obviously has the technology. a lot of the missile technology. it wants to test. the sanctions won't affect their ability to finance that. the economic pinch from the latest round of sanctions really wouldn't come into effect until later this year. north korea's latest missile launches rattling markets from new york to london to sydney. strategistring in
for bloomberg news. as if we didn't have enough to worry about. august is supposed to be a quiet month and suddenly we are dealing with a serious geopolitical threat. markets took this one a lot more seriously. >> initially they did. there was a big reaction when the news came through. i think it is a big escalation. less than 24g is hours later you are seeing s&p futures roughly flat. we are not trading that much different. you're seeing emerging-market equities near the highs. not seeing much risk aversion. you could argue that gold has rallied up to the highs and broken higher. yields generally have come lower. vonnie: the only asset class that is ignoring this is stocks. the dollar index is barely above 92 recovering slightly. they did take a hit. it has been dollar aversion rather than risk aversion. what's amazing is you are
expecting to see dollar rallied against emerging markets. morning.nd lower this kiwi dollar lower. that's the conventional assets that a macro manager would look at. we are seeing a very dollar focused risk aversion which seems an extension of global seems rather than geopolitical themes. vonnie: your traits make money. to fill yourime orders or get out of these trades? >> i don't recommend any specific trades. i think the risk reward in terms of the valuation metrics and some of the opportunities and particular u.s. equities are changing. we have a lot of risks coming up in september. debt ceiling issues. the fed reducing their balance sheet. that combined with geopolitical risk probably makes it less appealing for people to add exposure to the u.s. equity market right now. that will spill over to other assets. mark, thank you.
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. second-quarter earnings per share beat estimates sending shares to their highest since january. the company is also initiating a share buyback program and boosting the share buyback program today. i can see them on your screen. let's just look at the fundamentals.
the share price was the highest since january. it was up 26%. come off those gains just a little bit. 13% so far today. thely a broad-based be on earnings per share that more than offset any concerns about the growth margins. let me run through some of those points. we aren my terminal looking -- they had the biggest beef versus estimates on an earnings per share basis by 87%. that was the most percent of upbeat sense of first quarter of 2015. really coming in above expectations. the broad-based revenue side revenue this quarter about 130 119ion more than the million. really good numbers on the top line. some concerns about the consumer but they are growing
internationally. no big concerns. the other thing i highlighted was the gross margin. the concerns about those margins coming in lower than expectations where 54.5%. definitely lower than expectations. thought watchmakers were having a very difficult time if they didn't go into the apple watch type area. what did it for them? tiffany's also said there were fewer concerns about the stronger dollar and the drop in tourism. relative to their competitors they have underperformed. when you look at fossil and tiffany. the share increased today is helping to bring them back a little bit. google is facing a
crucial deadline in europe. of today it must tell european union regulators how it will stop discriminating against competing shopping search services. then the tech giant must go ahead with the changes by next month. has -- if google fails to comply it risks fines on top of the one it was issued earlier. let's go to caroline hyde in london. any indication that google wouldn't comply if the direction came down that it needed to do this quickly? >> the clock is ticking. we understand it's about midnight is the usual timeframe when you get the first deadline. they had two months to say how they were going to rectify the situation. had said it discriminating against rival shopping search engines. got until midnight. we don't understand whether they have handed over any documents to the eu.
they've only got a few hours left. and of course the clock starts ticking on the next 30 days which is when they've actually got to do what they say they're going to do. ask some of these changes or ,e start to see those fines that could really start to ramp up. vonnie: do we know if they have already paid that fine? and what might be added on top of that if they don't comply? >> they did set aside the 2.4 billion euros in their earnings. couldnly this is where it get ever more costly. if you go into the bloomberg you can see the revenue google pulls in per quarter. if they don't comply and they don't make changes the eu fields ends the discrimination against rival shopping search engine's they could be fined up to 5% of daily revenue.
that's 26 billion dollars per quarter. that means three hundred million dollars per day. that means $14 million a day they would be charged if they don't comply. this could get pretty costly. what's really interesting is the eu is taking this really seriously because they too are splashing the cash. 10 million euros to be able to get experts such as search engine optimization experts. marketing experts. to show that google is in fact changing the rules of the game. if it doesn't pan out it might mean something to type into a google search engine in europe the results would look very different from one in the united states. it's going to be interesting how they enact this. whether this becomes something they rollout globally. interesting isy
how this affects the rest of the business model. the competition commissioner of the eu has been taking on with the likes of force apple and google. it might not end just with shopping rivals. what about travel? you might use to ivanka trip advisor. -- you might use trip advisor. as google been using that power to a two great extent? what about map services? she is questioning areas of the business. this could be having to change their business model quite significantly not just with respect to shopping. on somek is ticking other investigations. we could see yet another fine come their direction because maybe they've been too dominant in their power of mobile phone operating systems. the mostkes android, widely used operating system. should they really be insisting that you automatically use the google search engine? that has been questioned by the eu.
so has an advertising tool that they use. questions keep on arising and so could the fines. vonnie: thank you, caroline hyde in london. the deadline about 6:00 eastern this evening. how would insurers fair if the markets crash? a new study by blackrock says they fare worse than they did during the 2008 financial crisis. we have the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
down about 2.5%. .25%. the euro trading at a major milestone above 120. the milestone for the yen came a little while ago. the 108trading with handle for most of the day. futures still higher than the 10 year yield is creeping ever higher. it touched 2.08 six overnight. fascinating market moves today. insurers got badly burned in the 2008 financial crisis. a new study by blackrock shows the $5 trillion industry is even more vulnerable today should markets crash. before we get started i have to ask you. insurers have been desperate to not be sissies.
shouldn't is not even be a question? if they were allowed to not even where we talking about this? >> a lot of the argument that blackrock makes is that some of this is actually a very good thing. a lot of the reason a lot of insurers tumbled according to the oecd is risk was so concentrated. got 250 billion dollars in assets and you only have a couple billion in private equity and hedge funds your risk theoretically is diversified enough to make sure the portfolio is able to generate returns without falling. vonnie: even metlife and prudential financial and they are age-old names that you would never think were in anything risky have said they're pushing into commercial property debts and private market that debt looking for yield. it looks like everyone has to. x absolutely. -- >> absolutely.
the question is when your portfolio is so heavily weighted toward bonds for you look for yield. initially a lot of this meant high-yield debt. now they are saying maybe it of the realense estate, timber and agriculture. vonnie: why did blackrock conduct the study? are all pushing into insurance asset management given that some insurers are in such a ridiculous with the low yield and firemen. there's an opportunity to shift some of the assets into different type of assets they're not used to managing. blackrock is doing this as well as a lot of other asset managers. it's also a way for them to use aladdin. insurance companies have to report every single holding they have. and rock was able to go in model every asset against aladdin and see how the assets are performing in different
scenarios. perhaps one of the most compelling ideas behind this was the 2008 scenario. the important thing to remember don't actually realize as losses unless insurers are forced to liquidate their holdings. vonnie: there are some fascinating statistics about that. the next year they were down to 18 billion. i would urge everybody to read that story. it is a fantastic one. coming up tomorrow on bloomberg markets, david westin will interview warren buffett. berkshire hathaway chairman and ceo. that's at 11:00 eastern and as always go to tv for all of our interviews. is bloomberg. ♪
here are the top stories we are watching at this hour. all options are on the table. that's president trump's response to north korea and his message to the world after the rogue regime fires an unidentified ballistic missile over japan. we may hear from the president later this afternoon. he and his wife are in texas assessing the damage from tropical storm harvey and monitoring the response. rain continues to fall and thousands of texans have been displaced. investigation into russia's involvement in the election continues. the president's lawyer reveals the trump organization was trying to do deals in russia despite what the president has said. ♪ we start with an update on tropical storm harvey. mark crumpton is standing by the first word news. trump is inent te