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tv   Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power  Bloomberg  October 11, 2017 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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here are the top stories we are watching. president trump meets with justin trudeau on the fourth round of talks on nafta. the house ways and means committee chairman will joins us -- will join us live on tax reformnd nafta. we are keeping a close watch on the federal reserve as we await the latest on the search to replace janet yellen. ♪ david: president trump's infamous feud with senator bob corker is preventing him from uniting senate republicans on what he calls the biggest tax cuts ever. he will make a pitch on his tax plan later today in pennsylvania. anding us is sahil kapur
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alexis leonis. sahil, why is this audience particularly compelling in pennsylvania? cuts areese middle tax supposed to help the working man. saying, this is not going to be a tax-cut for the top. that remains to be seen. he knows what he is doing in that regard. saying the presidt is american households will get a $4000 pay raise. is that true? the first is one of times we have heard a concrete number from the president. number we have's -- we have
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see of a rangen is. more -- we have seen is more of a range. there was a analysis of this tax framework. analysis of this tax framework. is this positive for american taxpayers? the framework that republican leaders put out is incomplete. it does not have keep details -- key details, such as where to put the brackets. some assumptions need to be made about those things. the policy center made some
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assumptions about using the 2016 blueprint republicans put out. republicans are saying, that is not going to be what is in the final play. we ha to analyze a buh of specific policies that would clearly benefit the top. state tax repeal. cutting the top rate to 35. and doubling the standard deduction. tax breaks would be illuminated that could harm aboard middle-class -- upper-middle-class families. a lot remains to be seen. shery: how difficult is it for the administration to strike a balance between senator rand paul, who wants more tax cuts, and bob corker, who doesn't want to add to the deficit? sahil: this is the same math problem that affected repealing
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and placing obamacare. -- repealing and replacing obamacare. likely not be able to get democratic support. they have been working on this for several years. rand paul has set down a firm marker that no one in the middle class and get a tax hike. corker says it cannot add to the deficit. how you meet all of those competing demands is going to be the biggest challenge. and the personal insults between trump and corker are not helping. shery: is there conviction among lawmakers about bringing back their offshore profits, depending on how this tax reform goes? alexis: that is one of the few things that seems to have widespread support, both with
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republicans and some democrats. having companies ship their profits offshore is not good for american companies. one of the things in a tax reform would call for repatriation -- in this tax forrm bill would call repatriation to help bring this money back. shery: thank you. we will get more insight into what tax reform can look like. david is with the man at the center of the debate. inid: he has been toiling the trenches of tax reform for a long time. kevinican congressman brady is the chair of the house ways and means committee. he joins us now from capitol hill. great to speak with you this afternoon. a lot of debate over the details of the framework you have received a couple of weeks ago.
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you looking to hammer out more details? are you coming up at the parameters for some tax did actions? -- for some tax did actions? deductions? are looking for senate republicans to rally around this. really trying to drive a major middle-class tax-cut and trying to make sure we are competitive as anyone else in the world. we want to make sure we are listening to families, local businesses, and lawmakers. the debate over who the tax plan is going to benefit. enumerate how this
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will help the middle class? rep. brady: the criticisms of the middle class and the wealthy, those press releases would have occurred no matter what details were in there. after this budget is delivered we arehouse and senate, going to bring forward that comprehensive tax reform bill with those details. beginen, we are going to tax reform. david: state and local tax deductions in partilar. has told us they are up to talking about that. confirm we will not see a repeal of those? going to work are hard to make sure we lower tax rates and allow families to keep more of what they live.
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the current tax code is double taxation. it taxes americans, local taxes. it raises their federal taxes higher again and double taxes them. we want to lower rates for everyone. people keep more of what they earn regardless of where they live. there is equal treatment. david: do you not see a red line? i want to make america competitive again. i want families and businesses to keep more of what they earned and -- and invested in their family or business. invest in their family or business. david: you have been talking with senders more than you have been -- senators more than you have been in the past. republicans who
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said they don't want to see this estate tax repealed in fall. what do you say to that? rep. brady: this is a terrible tax code. it is the number reason family-owned businesses aren't passed down to their kids. repealing it will create 140,000 new jobs and will allow businesses and family-owned farms to keep reinvesting in their own success. david: let us move on to the corporate side. do you see limiting the amount of corporate tax did actions? -- deductions? rep. brady: we are scrubbing tax codes to make sure you can lower the rates for businesses by 40%. we have to get that number. this is what the competitors in china and europe are doing.
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and we are redesigning the tax codes so local companies can compete anywhere in the world. we have to scrub that side of the tax code. it has a lot of special interest provisions. david: repatriation. set are you using that as a blueprint from 2014? rep. brady: yes. ryan's work on the committee determined our companies ought to be able to bring their earnings back to america. the zero tax rate makes us competitive worldwide. two-tieredosing a tax process. gotten from we have companies caught in that trap has been helpful. 2004, there back to
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was repatriation. companiesd the profits they brought back for dividends. to hire or spend on infrastructure. how do you learn from that? that's one year, with all sorts of restrictions, it came to $300 billion. convinced me yet that a dollars stranded overseas is better than one of brought back,. -- one brought back home. buyle bid against china to american companies and expand them. with that money. all of that is great economic activity. competitors can deploy that
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capital and bring it back to the united states and make themselves more competitive. how muchu talk about you want to have permanent tax cuts in place. what are temporary provisions you can live with? rep. brady: we want permanence, as much as we can achieve. families to be able to count on these rate cuts. we want businesses to consider keeping jobs in america and bring the supply chains home to the united states. permanence ash possible. david: you are up against the senate into the house not in session. baseball to watch a little later. there is a lot going on. how are you going to get this done? what is going to be the point where you recognize whether this is going to happen this year or not? rep. brady: we are still on
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track to deliver this to the presidential desk by the end of the year. then, ways and means will have the number. we will move very quickly after that. if you are serious about tax reform, whether you are in the house or the senate, you have to be serious about giving us the right budget. david: if i were to go into your office, either hundreds of pages written already? -- are there are hundreds of pages written already? been workinge have for six years to be ready for this moment. outave brought the tax plan in the past two years. that texten writing as we go and is still have decisions to be made -- and we still have decisions to be made. me ask you what is
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happening on twitter. you have read what senator corker had to say about the white house. or much of a distraction issue is that for you and the rest of your committee -- is that for you and the rest of your committee? senator corker is looking to find a budget that allows us to do very pro-middle-class tax reform. i appreciate that work. i am optimistic everyone is focused on this budget for tax reform. for the economy and party, failing on this is not an option. david: i appreciate what you were saying. understand that every vote inhe senate is going to be pivotal. what is your reaction as you are seeing this play out on social media? the president and
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his economic team are all in for tax reform. they are making the case. the president in the house and senate knows the important -- knows the importance of this issue. david: the president has talked about this being his tax plan. how do you react to that? rep. brady: if we are going to settle as a country for another decade, this very slow growth with flat paychecks and few opportunities for our children, we have to settle. we have a president will into lead on this issue. the president is meeting with the canadian prime minister to talk about nafta. his termination of nafta something you are comfortable with? the message was to make the case for better trade ties between canada, america,
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and mexico. this is a proven trade agreement. it can be better. all of us should bring our best to the negotiating table. at the end of the day, we want better jobs, paychecks, and stronger supply. if we do this right, it will help grow this economy. david: are you more optimistic tax reform -- on tax reform or nafta? involvedy: having been with 12 of the 14 free trade agreements we have in place, this can really move slowly. confident we can get tax reform to the presidential desk this year. david: thank you very much. chairman kevin brady. let us check in on the bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton. have not beenters
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able to contain any of the wildfires scorching northern california apostle wine country. have killed 17 people and destroyed 3500 structures. a number of congressional are urging president trump to up hold the international agreement with iran. they say it is the best way to hran'sr to ron -- te behavior in the middle east. >> predictably and unfortunately, the tehran regime sees itself as a movement. one that uses ideology and violence to destabilize its neighbors. to threaten others, mainly the
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united states. said hee chairman believes he wants to enforce the iran nuclear deal. catalonia has a deadline of monday to clarify whether they will declare independence from spain. the catalan president's response is that he indeed formally declared independence. the deadline has been included in a formal demand. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, president trump and justin trudeau our meeting today to talk about today toour meeting talk about nafta.
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will they find common ground? this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." shery: let us get a check of the markets. julie hyman has the latest. balance of power is on a nice edge today between gains and losses. all three major averages, very little change. the nasdaq up the most. we are going to get those fed minutes from the last meeting in less than an hour. they will help us see if there are any changes. kroger is a $4 billion revenue operation. .he rest is gasoline
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the company has hired goldman sachs to explore that sale. walmart is still riding the wave from talking about expanding its online business. businesses are fighting back against amazon. another sector is not doing so well. the drug distribution companies. said amazon would get into that business, orhereas a hi probability. this is how they have done in the past week. in these nafta talks we have been monitoring, the dollar is trading lower here against the peso and canadian dollar. we have not seen much progress in those talks up to this point. shery: thank you.
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as they are granting ready for the fourth round of negotiations -- getting ready for the fourth round of negotiations, there could be potential deal breaking proposals for nafta on the table. here to talk about this is a bloomberg's canadian politics -- is bloomberg's canadian politics reporter. what can you say about this talk of termination of nafta? steadfastly said it thinks nafta can be modernized. brady --the ways and means committee is going to everyone they can to seek possible trade.
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maybe they will stop donald trump if he tries to do something. with a lotn't agree of the proposals that the united states has on the table so far. the mexicanems that economic minister is saying there is life after nafta. extended.s have been is this a good or bad sign? >> that is a great question. they need aing couple more days for this. could walk away from the table at any moment. if they are adding a couple of days to the end of the agenda, you would presume no one will walk away.
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are scheduling some really tough decisions for the last few days. what is this relationship like between these two world leaders? into the trump walked white house earlier today. he was looking comfortable earlier. josh: they get along ok. president trump sees trudeau has within his circle, notwithstanding the fact they don't agree on a lot of issues. they seem to get along. trudeau is a celebrity and trump likes celebrities.
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they are not too worried about this meeting having some sort of negative affect. -- negative effect. next, we willup continue talking about why the mexican economic minister is admitting there could be life after the freight -- free trade deal. coming up next. we'll have the details with our guest, tim keeler. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you on medicare?
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mcconnell is promising to speed up the pace of confirmations on a backlog of president trump's judicial nominees. activists including the judicial crisis network threatened to run ads against, beginning this week. he says the senate will no longer abide by a long-standing tradition that home state senators must sign off on a a senate vote. michigan governor rick snyder is standing by his testimony to congress about when he learned of a fatal outbreak of legionnaires disease despite a by a senior aide who said he told him weeks earlier. nearly 100 cases were reported including 12 deaths. a spokesman for the governor said today he was under oath and stands by what he said. the u.s. led coalition fighting islamic state says it will not accept a withdrawal for hundreds of militants in raqqa.
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allies are scrambling to safely move an estimated 4000 civilians trapped in the city. militants are holding civians as potal human shields as the fight to reclaim raqqa enters its final stage. in the u.k. lawmakers are trying to fast-track legislation that would cap household energy prices. their goal for consumers to benefit from those limits this winter. it can take months to get a law passed in parliament. the energy secretary is expect live -- expected to publish draft legislation tomorrow. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. the fourth round of nafta negotiations are underway in washington where covidien prime minister justin trudeau will arrive at the white house any moment.
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business leaders are concerned that trumps opening bid is a strategy to derail the talks. the administration has a list of poison pills that has the mexican economy minister lamenting there is life after nafta. we are joined by tim keeler now. thank you for being with us. how seriously should we take a speculation that president trump is using this strategy in order to derail the talks and eventually have a justification to withdraw from nafta? >> i don't think that's what's going on. there is certainly high-stakes negotiations. very clearly does not like the current nafta agreement. the fact that the u.s. proposals would make dramatic changes to nafta to me is not that big of a surprise. i don't think they are poison pills.
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they are also initial proposals in a negotiation. shery: how real is the threat given that he needs support from congress to do that? the threat of u.s. withdrawal is certainly real. i don't think the president needs congressional action to withdraw. threatink that is a real and a real possibility of the negotiations breaking down. i think every trade negotiation looks tough from the outside. we will know more in a couple weeks to see if some of the pills isons of poison accurate. i suspect there will be more give-and-take behind the scenes that people are letting on. shery: there are many reports of what the proposals could be. presidentm is that trump could make the investors
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stayed dispute settlement and opt in system. how big of an impact with this on investor protections across the world as a precedent if that were to happen? >> for nafta it could be a big u.s. mexico and canada opt out and decide not to allow foreign investors to utilize the ability to go torbitrati rather than the national courts. it's not clear to me that that's the case. a country like mexico has certainly benefited from investors stayed dispute settlements. the u.s. is arguing that there will be countries that often and it's too early to say. a significant presidential change if it were replicated in other trade agreements and countries opted then from foreign investors perspectives that would be a long-term negative.
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shery: another issue has always been the chapter 19 dispute settlement panels. the stakes for the u.s. and canada? >> this is a provision that in a very technical area of manufacturing goods trade allows exporters to go to a separate arbitration style panel rather than national courts if they disagree with the tariffs that are being imposed when they are accused of subsidies and dumping. over theas gone down years. canada has identified it as a very big deal for them. and sort of a red line. it strikes me as being a bit more of a symbolic fight than reality. talksan issue that overall could break down on because the u.s. has identified ands very much an anomaly
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something they want to get rid of. shery: the fear would be that u.s. courts would favor american companies over canadian or mexican countries. how justified is this when you look at the u.s. legal system? >> i think the u.s. courts are perfectly happy to strike down executive branch actions. i don't buy that. it has been seen. it was an important issue for canada when the u.s. cada free-trade agreement was initially negotiated for nafta. and they have identified it as something very important for them now. reportse are hearing about proposals that would affect the percentage of car parts and materials to be made i nafta especially when it comes to u.s. made parts. how much would this hurt automakers and how much do you expect the threshold to be
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increased from the current 62.5% that we need to see in u.s. made parts? >> the 62.5% is a nafta origin requirement. , canadao be from mexico or the u.s., it can't be from japan or china. the u.s. is proposing both to increase the nafta content and increased what is required specifically from the u.s. a significant change for automakers because they have built supply chains based on the current nafta rules. they are pretty upset about this and what the u.s. chamber is arguing is that in fact it would end up pushing more work outside of the nafta countries. from the administration standpoint they would argue the u.s. is a big enough market and nafta is a big enough market
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that it will keep the supply chains and bring more to the u.s.. where that lands, i don't know. that will be a very high profile veifficult issue. it see w the u.s. would agree to something that doesn't have some change. are waiting for justin trudeau to arrive at the white house. he will have talks with president trump at any moment now. , thank you for joining us. live picturesg at of prime minister justin trudeau arriving at the white house any time now. willg up, the fomc minutes be released in just under half an hour. what investors will be looking for next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is bloomberg markets. i'm david gura. shery: i'm shery ahn. down for a third day in row are the shares of molina healthcare. joining us to talk about this is abigail doolittle. what the story now? today it has to do with a new ceo. they named the president. he has 35 years of experience in the health industry. he was also at etna. he will be named a molina board member in november. it may take away some takeout
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speculation. says by this weakness. strongy he has a very record with cash management and balance sheet control. -- d co. >> he did indeed. it sounds as though this is almost at least in my opion of many repeal and replace because he is talking about loosening obamacare, moving people away from exchanges. it's not clear what happened. certainly some chaos. kind is really senator rand paul. we have a tweet he sent out saying this will be a great plan for millions of americans. makes it sound as though they
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had a plan c. i'm trying to do something for health care. some of our analyst in washington, d.c. said this could be the roadmap potentially for repeal, a former repeal and replace. shery: every time we have these plans a to z. >> very volatile. what we are looking at, hospital stocks zigzagging along. only higher by about 4% at this point on the year. molina in blue. up about 18%. we see around the repeal and replace efforts volatility doing a little bit better. one reason that molina is , 60 five to 70% medicaid coverage. there could be some question as to whether or not that is under pressure. to puttucky is trying
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forward a law. lots going on with health care. we will talk about the federal reserve working hard to make policymaking as boring as possible. janet yellen trying to stay on message. krugman was on bloomberg television yesterday and said this. think the fed is trying to normalize and that version of normality went out the window 10 years ago. david: we are joined by senior u.s. economist at bloomberg intelligence. minutes come out. it's my sense that these are going to be kind of boring. what are you going to be looking for? there could be some interesting details.
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they revised the growth forecast. we might get some details as to why they did and that could be quite informative. at the same time we can hea from them why and how are they thinking about what isomething goes wrong. there was no market reaction after the release of the balance sheet unwind date. there could be. if something goes wrong what is their plan b, what they going to do? >they might give us a hint about that. david: it could be something. shery: what about inflation? >> inflation is a big deal. we heard from president kaplan. we heard from charlie evans this morning. they are all wondering what is happening with inflation. there's a lot of concern that it's not that transitory as
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chair yellen might be trying to portray. it's really a question about the december rate hike. if she doesn't have enough support for the december rate hike it could be problematic. we really need to listen to what fed speakers start telling us between now and december. david: let's go back to paul krugman. he was on the show yesterday. thatxactly laudatory about to nominee. >> for a while the bedding was kind of, the prediction markets were thinking the most likely pick was kevin warsh former fed governor. he does have a track record over the past decade and is quite consis. he has been wrong about everything. talk about kevin warsh
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and what we know of him. its president trump's choice. it's up to him whether he wants to choose the person based on the personality or the politics. we simply think he would to somebody who would be a low interest rate person. warsh.uld not be kevin he would be more hawkish. that is our view. he had interesting views about changeon and he wants to certain things. i think you would be more .awkish than chair yellen powell would be another interesting choice. shery: we have already talked about kashkari. what about powell? be a change into policy from the current policy. it would be a continuation of
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the current kind of policy. chair yellen explicitly said that she would be very much against any deregulation. that could be to adam for the current administration and in this case governor powell becomes the second choice. me ask you about the meetings getting underway. how much of the focus is going to be on the u.s. economy? the imf looking at the growth outlook. it seems on the bright side. they revised it up a little bit. we had it much in line with their view as well. thats interesting is global outlook has also improved. that is helping the u.s. economy as well. it's not only domestically driven growth and consumer spending. it's also like a lot of global
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growth helping the u.s. economy. david: great to see you as always. remember to tune in tomorrow for tom keene's interview with christine lagarde. that's going to take place in washington at imf headquarters. coming up, stephen bannon is growing up midterm civil war in the gop and no one is safe except one senator. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: we're watching the white house. justin trudeau stepping out of the limousine to meet president trump. the prime minister's wife as well. they are scheduled to have a bilateral meeting in just a few minutes. after that they will rake out into some larger meetings at the white house and then of course the president will be making his way to harrisburg pennsylvania for a speech tonight on tax reform. the subject of that speech will be on tax reform before an audience of truckers. inry: all of this coming up the fourth round of nafta negotiations. lookingteve bannon ahead to 2018 and he has a plan
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to take on virtually every republican senator up for reelection. he is declaring all-out war on the grand old party with targets on senators dean heller, orrin hatch. he has been one of the most conservative voters in the senate. we are joined now by larry sato -- larry sato -- larry sabatino -- larry sabato. do you make of the calculus -- settingg up you up here? >> a lot of republicans in the establishment are already regretting the fact that he left the white house. moreuld have been under control. this is almost unprecededented. i have tried to find some analogy that makes sense. essentially what you have is only from the white house who is still apparently by his own
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word, still supports trump and yet he is organizing rebellions in many of the deep red states against senators who already vote with trump on virtually senator brasso from wyoming. you don't get more conservative than that. what is the problem? i guess it's that ben and describes him as establishment because he had some ahead of terms in the senate. it's really questionable what's going on. david: certainly the pivot to the midterm elections has been seen as a big mile marker. that if this is going to get before has to get done the campaign for 2008 heats up in earnest. does steve bannon have a chance of accelerating when the timetable begins you go >> that's a very good question. obviously republicans for lots it done.s want to get
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they have loads of the factions and divisions and can't get it together. with corker for example its popular that corker isn't going to be as willing to give the trump administration or republican leadership his vote as readily as he might have otherwise. that might also b true of the incumbent nators running for reelection. give theirwant to primary opponents a two by ford to beat them over the head with. that affectuch does the advantage the republicans already have. a big advantage for the race in the senate in 2018. choosing deeply conservative already heavily republican states for the most part to pick challengers against the incumbents. it doesn't matter who the republican nominee is. people in that state will still elect them. most of the time that's going to be true. we remember congressman todd
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akin for example who lost to senator claire mccaskill five years ago. given thehave one politics of the time and in fact claire mccaskill the democrat was did in a deeply red state, missouri. it can have unintended consequences. david: let me ask you what you have learned. the ad hominem aside, you are seeing a monitor -- a moderate senator really in conflict with the president. can you see it as one unified party very easily at this point? >> there are a lot of factions in the republican party. you can easily see the mainstream conservative republicans that some call the establishment. they really tolerate each other at best. that will change going forward and president trump is playing a dangerous game because there will come a
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time in his administration when he is really in trouble and he's going to need some of these beple and they are going to shery:rom the office." how significant is this? >> it just reinforces the factions we were just talking about. mitch mcconnell won't do it publicly. privately he's chuckling and probably adding in a few cuss words and that's ok. the president is going to tax reform.bout how's he doing keeping the focus on tax reform and how important is the speech tonight at getting the focus back on tax reform? >> when you talk about president trump keeping the focus on something you have to measure it in minutes, not hours or days. gets back to the twitter and on twitter he will change the subject and go after his enemies and that becomes the headline.
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.avid: thank you, larry sabato shery: time for the balance of power newsletter. the latest on global politics in your inbox every day and also to an end to our live coverage of president trump's tax speech tonight. david: you can catch all our interviews including the one i with the function tv on the bloomberg. you can find breaking news, charts, related functionality as well. all of the stuff we talk about in the course of the program. you can ask the guest question. this is bloomberg. ♪ who knew that phones would start doing everything?
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no one else lets you do that. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit or go to julia: i'm julia chatterley along with scarlet fu. the federal reserve will release the minutes from the set timber meeting.
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we are expecting more details from officials showing stronger growth this year. scarlet: let's get a check of how markets are trading. little change for the s&p 500. the 10 year yield ticking lower. 2.35 percent. dollar index weaker on the whole. >> let's go head and run down the main points in this. many are concerned that the recent slowdown is not transitory. it was noted that patients might be warranted in looking at inflation. many of the fed participants saw 2017 of the possible candidate for an increase if the outlook is unchanged. several said they wanted to see signs thedata hat they have reasons for increased confidence that inflation is moving towards a 2% goal. at


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