tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg October 20, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: hero the top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. u.k. prime minister theresa may a helping hand from angela merkel in her cast -- in her quest to advance toward brexit talks. economy, jobs and fair work, telling us what this would mean for scotland. the search for the next fed chair could be nearing its end. president donald trump met with the current fed chair janet yellen yesterday, what would this mean for monetary policy at the worlds of central bank? the evil illusion in the pharmaceutical industry is extending to real estate.
founder,, joining us live. having a look at european equities trading right now, we are 30 minutes away from the friday session. look at that, look at the stocks rising. down for the week, all these equity bosses, are up today. currencies are lower, bond yields gaining, commodities and cbs's arid final two columns. 30 weeks ago yesterday was black monday. the day after was a record decline. yes on black monday, the ftse fell. a record 12.2%, the two day drop equated to $138 billion. the cap at the end of the day was 497 billion. today it is 2.0 8 trillion pounds. if i said dollars a few seconds ago.
ftse act then in 1987, the has jumped. the dax in comparison up by 900%. what a rise for the stoxx 600, 377%. this is the function, probability, listen to the probability of a rate hike in november. were 77 percent, a month ago 65.5%, two months ago, the probability was 4.7%. the doe's deputy governor says i slowing he is clear gradual process of raising rates would be warranted if the bank's latest economic access meant is proved correct, he is less sure when that should begin. it is not the on the uncertainty that the bank will raise rates in november. i want to bring you the latest developments on brexit.
european leaders say they are ready to discuss the future relationship with the u.k. but only amongst themselves. afterords for theresa may the second day of european council meetings. the eu 27 calls for more detailed from britain before talks can move to the next stage. optimistic about where we can get to in relation to the future partnership that we want with the european union. we would help -- >> we would hope that we would be ready to initiate phase two but this depends to a large extent on the extent to which great britain preparing progress to a certain extent that we can call it sufficient. thet is in the interest of british people and people across the remaining 27 members of the european union as well. >> moving on to the second phase is not for me to do. it depends on whether we will be able to deal with the topics in
phase one. >> there has to be detailed work on the commitments. we are going through them line by line and we will continue. actively onrking the deal. i hope we will be able to move to the second phase of our talks in december. mark: prime minister may pointing out that eu leaders will be able -- need to be able to sell the results of these talks to their own people. julie has the latest. have a record on a closing basis for the three major averages. a mixture of factors here including continuing speculation about the next fed chair, earnings a big part of the equation. also seeing a bounce for biggest groups in the s&p 500. on the earnings front, look at the out performers on a percentage basis. rising, third quarter
above analyst asked the myths -- estimates. es are at a record. a strong forecast for the end of the year. intuitive surgical, the developer of the surgical robot is at a record high. initially shares dropped but then they came back. company said there was controversy around management commentary on margins but analysts are reiterating ratings in the wake of earnings. we are watching skechers, the shoemaker. they are out the numbers. they are having a record one-day , reporting strong international growth and wider profit margins. one analyst saying that they are not just a one trick pony. pulling up other shoemakers and retailers as well. -- dsw andare rising dick's are rising.
financials have been rising with bond yields as we continue to speculate and talk about the next fed chair. we are seeing banks rise as yields rebound. vonnie, that is what you will talk about. vonnie: you read our minds. julie, thank you. the rate for the fed chair in the next year. the president's team said to be leaning toward john taylor and jay powell. president trump has announced to before the decision asia trip on november 3. it could come anytime. joining us is kevin cirilli from capitol hill. here in new york. kevin, let me start with you. is there any candidate which would find it difficult to get past the senate confirmation? kevin: no. i've been speaking with aids to
banking committee members all week and i can tell you that while janet yellen, the current federal reserve chair is not their first choice, even she would likely get out and be approved by the senate banking committee and then be passed through and confirmed by the senate. all of the five choices have really been folks that anyone would be ok with in the senate. i want to dive into my terminal. taking a look at who investors are looking and banking on will be the federal reserve chair. jerome powell, his chances have spiked in the past days following politicos report that he is the front runner in addition to bloomberg's report that he and john taylor are also leading the charge. at least in the front runner of the federal reserve race. clearly this is coming down to the wire but it is not back whens as it was progressives were divided on janet yellen and larry summers.
now, it is me turn always dangerous on betting about this but sometimes there are more correct and other kinds of polling. president donald trump is unpredictable. we have no idea who we will pick doing? >> these odds have moved around based on the latest media reports based on who has found favor with whom. whether bloomberg or politico. if you go back a couple weeks, a , a wallridays ago street journal report kicked off things. to get to kevin's point about senate confirmation, the thing to note about jay powell, when he was confirmed a few years ago he got more than 70 votes. when was the last time, kevin, tell me, that happened? kevin: not for quite some time. we should note that some folks
privately are noting that some republicans in the senate actually voted against jerome powell for that confirmation. to your point, he would very likely be confirmed by the senate should he be the nominee. gop lawmakers, kevin, ultimately will support whoever donald trump selects maybe excluding yellen. are they trying to influence who gets nominated? who are they pushing for behind-the-scenes? third it issubtly subtle. it is not as aggressive as elizabeth warren when she tried to sync larry summers nomination back when she was first nominated. that whole debacle with janet yellen and larry summers. with regards to who conservatives are pushing for, i will be candid. more of the freedom caucus members, they have respect and admiration for john taylor
particularly with his policy with the taylor rule. has backed off how willing he would be to implement that role. but they like that. the vice president, mike pence, is very close with the chairman, who is a big supporter of john taylor. they have the ear of the present , of those making the decision. they are pushing for taylor. again it is subtle and the names that have been listed with the exception of fed chair janet yellen, they would be ok with. might beohn taylor more inclined than others to raise interest rates. i'm glad kevin mentioned john taylor's remarks at the boston fed. kind of a sister-soldier moment. powell, what he gets you, he and you a freshfaced,
policy continuity. he gets you a republican who is not contentious. he gets you someone who has a background in business. a longtime carlyle executive. he gets you goodwill on the hill. vonnie: there we go. points for jay powell. our thanks to dan for the view, and kevin. that check in now with the first word news. topresident trump's legislative priorities, tax reform has taken a step forward. the road is likely to get tougher. the senate approved a budget resolution that had been signed off by house republican leaders. it will allow a tax bill to be passed without democratic votes. there are concerns about higher deficits and middle-class issues. u.s. secretary of state rex tillerson is promising to stay on the job for as long as president trump wants him. in an interview with bloomberg he signaled growing impatience with china on north korea and
trade. he blames the saudi arabia and lead blocks of the diplomatic standoff with qatar. sales of previously owned homes in the u.s. rose last month. they were up 7/10 of 1% to an annual rate of $5.4 million. available properties increased by more than 6% from a year ago. spain's prime minister is ready to crack down on catalonia. they say an agreement has been reached with opposition parties on the measures used to take control of the region. and the president government is working out how it may stage a declaration of independence from spain. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: coming up, real estate aboutors join us next urban campuses.
♪ vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i'm mark barton. the european close in 15 minutes. let's get back to new york today with aric is standing by major player in the real estate space. take it away. is.e certainly his name is joel marcus, the ceo of alexander real estate equities. >> pleasure to be here. -- let'salec zeus introduce alexandria.
it's called a real estate company but it does more than that. you invest in life science companies as part of the real estate business? >> we were a garage startup 23 years ago. today i am happy to report our exceedsrker capital billions. missions critical for the life sciences technology industry, front leadership, summits, we just held one on health care economics. we make investments. that is another core vertical as well as corporate social responsibility, combination of philanthropy and sustainability. we are mission driven. >> some of that committee won't sound like it equates with the bottom line. how do you make it work? >> we have been blessed. we have 70% margins since we have started. we have been public for 20 years, an amazing track record,
our total return has exceeded 1000%. 1990 seven through last quarter we have beaten companies like berkshire and the relevant indices. if you look at the platform, it is urban campuses in the best locations on each of the coasts catering to the intersection of science and technology. over half our clients are investment-grade tenants. you might say it is risky but we manage, we have a 13 person underwriting team to do a great job. our average to lease duration is almost nine years. you have long-term sustainable cash flow at high margins. >> which is the best markets are now? which will be the best markets in the years to come? the east coast and west coast? science, san life francisco. >> the greater boston area? >> heavily cambridge.
san francisco was the birthplace of biotechnology but also silicon valley. >> what is coming up? >> seattle. withn has had a lot to do that. also new york city, we have a great campus on the east side. we are 100% filled and hope for further development. san diego as well. >> do you see signs that other cities on the coast or in the middle of the country have the not to equalybe other cities but to become important centers in technology and life sciences? >> texas. they have no state tax. a lot of companies have migrated . it has a good employment base. places like austin, houston, dallas, interesting. i like austin in particular. >> you expect a more active there -- to be more active there? >> over long-term, yes. the university of texas is building a medical school there
which is a key component of building a cluster. >> i think of your business the way wayne gretzky thinks of hockey. you need to be where the puck is going. talk to me about betting on the right trends in innovation to make alexandria successful? >> that is a great question. if i had to prompt you that would have been it. in 2005, 2006, more than a decade ago, we saw this urban migration to the core. we also felt that the next generation, the millennial's, 10 years from now they will make up 75% of the workforce, would really want to live in these urban centers. access to retail and transportation. we made big bets. we bought a lot of land in mission bay, san francisco. we initiated our new york city project and we made big bets in cambridge. it was during those three years, literally a decade ago. that is what has driven
performance. -- bearwill benefit fruit 10 years from now? >> you will see the same locations double down. recently moved corporate headquarters from connecticut to boston. said "i just that down, can look outside my window in connecticut and cede deer. when i look outside in boston i see smart motivated people who are collaborating and innovating like no other place." i think you'll see more of the same for the for seeable future but there will emerge secondary markets. >> thank you very much for spending time with bloomberg. >> a pleasure. mark, vonnie. mark: an excellent interview. more from eric later. vonnie: exciting stuff. as theutional crisis
♪ from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: the european close a matter of minutes away. seven minutes away. catalonia, after the spanish government said thursday it will revoke catalonia's autonomy. a meeting in madrid to decide specific measures. let's get over to maria who is reporting live from barcelona. what happens on saturday? the cabinet will be meeting, an emergency meeting. thentially we already know region will be suspended from autonomy.
they are being tightlipped about the details. article 155 gives the government a range of powers. not just dismissing the regional government but also details about who will be replaced. also the new government they will get and for how long. also about a new regional election. , no setence in brussels time frames or deadlines to bring the region back under control. no specifics. everything will be revealed, what they confirmed was there was a rough consensus of measures that have been agreed on. between the parties. vonnie: our business is happy to wait and see what is next? or are some moving out of catalonia? the business community is concerned.
especially the idea we could potentially get a suspended autonomy but a new republic. the parliament will reconvene next week. potentially we might get a date for the next session. it would create an independent republic, but it has to be voted on the and by the catalan parliament. a unilateral declaration of independence. we are seeing tension in banks. yesterday night, a group called on supporters to go to atm's, and pull money out for an hour as a way of protesting. this is still creating tension for the business community in catalonia. mark: thanks for joining us. maria, live from barcelona as she has done for the past three weeks. let's look at european markets.
five minutes away from the end of the friday session. ,ains for europe as a whole declines for the ftse is moving inversely to the pound which is rising. therogress, because of meetings in brussels, eu leaders, theresa may walks away with a small olive branch. look at sterling. it is rising. against the dollar. for the week, the euro is lower. the bond yields are rising across the european space. the closes four minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ who knew that phones would start doing everything?
see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit or go to xfinitymobile.com. ♪ live from london and new york, this is the european close. stocks finishing up the day in european trading, having a look at what is happening, up about a quarter of 1%.
stronger-than-expected earnings propelling the index higher today. let's get to earnings. third quarter surging, estimated 45%. in north america recovering. mining equipment in china rose. shares drifting lower throughout the day, finishing down by 8/10 of 1%. slumping, earnings of mercedes-benz cars division. in mission systems involving diesel cars alongside the fallout of the cheating scandal of vw. shifting, disruptive to electric cars. the german car industry is facing these obstacles.
in japan there is an election. the highest level in a decade there, investors who watched the results filtering out on sunday night are unlikely to react strongly. more than 1.5% higher or lower on the first day of trade, after the vote they did two standard deviations. defeat, after 54 years of rule. shinzo abe is on track to win the election on sunday spelling bee continuation of loose monetary policy that japan -- vonnie: very interesting market moves over the last few days. at 12, belowmost
10 today. volatility. the dollar today is weakening and you can see that in other currencies such as the end. it is weaker by 8/10 of 1%. yields are higher as well. te, makess after the vo it more likely tax reform will go through. crude oil jumping back. some of the more emerging countries are doing the g20 movers. equity industries are finishing the week in most countries higher. the stronger dollar is being reflected in the movements versus other currencies. you can have a look. mark: sterling rebounding after theresa may spoke at the eu summit. sounding more positive about moving toward brexit. >> i'm positive and optimistic
about where we can get to in relation to the future partnership we want with the eu. it is in the and just of the british people across the remaining 27 members as well. ian, the's bring in european government reporter in brussels. ian, have we made progress? >> not really, no. the summit was big on rhetoric. warm words. optimism. when you look at the details, nothing has changed since before the summit. it was clear that the other eu leaders wanted to offer theresa may their optimism, warm words. in fact what they are doing is basically saying, we realize you have to sell this to your home lawmakers, your public. the thing is, they know that she has to pay around 60 billion
euros and until she signs up to that, they will not advance trade talks. it was not that long ago before they were hoping this summit would be the moment when they would go to trade talks. that is not happening. they will hope it will be december. long way to go. vonnie: it is strange. there is a hard deadline for brexit. for ais no hard deadline divorce bill. with the clock ticking it is a dangerous situation that britain is in. >> that is right. that's the problem. both sides say the clock is ticking. ticking down to that deadline of march 29, 2000 19 when the u.k. leaves the european union. both sides but particularly the , the u.k. rather, wants to make sure there is a framework for trading relationships, a transitional deal is in place
for does go years. the eu won't let that happen until the u.k. says we are prepared to pay and offer protection to citizens living in the u.k.. at the moment the eu has the leverage. theresa mayether can go back home and sell it to her own party? the conservative party in london and say, we will have to pay the 60 billion euros. if we don't we will crash out of the eu without any deal whatsoever. mark: does that tell us that the next eight to 10 weeks through the end of this year are the most crucial? every period is crucial. >> that's right. is ant think it understatement to say from now until december, this is the most critical of all for brexit
negotiations. this will determine whether the u.k. leaves the eu on good terms or on bad terms. , speaking to diplomats here, one of them said the other day, it is 50-50 if we will get to that stage in december or not. these next eight weeks are crucial. again inons will begin brussels, officials on both sides will start going through line by line trying to work out what the u.k. will pay and what it won't pay. hopefully, they are both saying this, by december, they will be able to move forward. ian, the european government reporter, thank you. we continue with brexit. megan russell, the scottish thester continues to stress financial impact on scotland. he said "we know from businesses in scotland that a hard brexit
would cause economic damage and it is crucial we stay in the markets and customs union." we are joined by scotland's cabinet secretary for economy, jobs, and fair work. talk to us about how this is impacting scotland. to an extent there is nothing you can do about this. britain's deal. is there anything you can bring to bear on negotiations? >> there should be. be u.k. government should talking to administrations in the u.k. and the fact that they have not done that has not helped their case. as laid outl danger loss.tland, suggests 80,000 jobs being lost without the right deal. it is vitally important to our interest. ian was right. is riven byernment disunity.
theresa may trying to hold it together. the crucial point about the timing is many businesses are telling me, if we don't have a deal by christmas, at least some certainty, these fundamental decisions. mark: how do we resolve the brexit bill? that seems to be the stumbling block. you see a clear path the resolution when it comes to the spill in the next two to three months? >> it is crucial but some in the conservative party are refusing to counter. if you are a member of a club outstanding x -- debts, you have to pay them. i'm not involved in negotiations but the u.k. if it wants to move on to vital trade negotiations have to agree to settle the bill. it do that does without giving something it won't give up on like immigration or something else? >> freedom of movement is
crucial. the freedoms you have to sign up to. we think it is important that if the u.k. does not want to stay in the single market or the customs unit, that scotland is able to do that. the eu is good at finding pragmatic political solutions. the u.k. should try to do that with them. the labor party in scotland has now changed and is in favor of staying in the single market. london also supports that. let's try to get a deal that protects as much as we can. mark: how do you stay in the single market without giving up those things which people were very strident about in voting for brexit? was one vote after all. you can't go constituency by constituency. >> in scotland it was 62% to remain and has gone up to 67%. a very substantial body in scotland wanted to remain. that was true northern ireland
and london as well. a pragmatic solution is needed. previous point, they are so divided and have so many opinions, theresa may probably has the best i instincts but she is unable to play her hand. vonnie: so far they are technology problems but there is too much to deal with. they are not settled on a divorce bill. >> there seems to be no plan. scotland and europe provided a plan. it is funny how many elements of that plan which was given short shrift by the u.k. government are now coming into play. we do have a plan and we are trying to talk to the u.k. government and if they would talk to us they would get a stronger case. mark: what is the hot line on downing street? his downing street listening to you at all? >> the mechanisms by which that
takes place, there has been an appalling lack of communication. very recently within the last week's there seems to be signs of life. met, the primes minister has asked to meet the first minister and sometime. there seems to be a realization that something that should've been done months ago, the divorce settlements, many have a good relationships with the rest of europe, is a good idea. it is happening late. vonnie: if you get what you want you get a border? between scotland and england? a hard border? >> we don't see any use for that. the u.k. government has said, you do not want to have a hard border. nobody seems to want a hard border on ireland. if you don't have to have a hard border there you don't need one between scotland and england. they have said they don't want one, theresa may has said that, but if they are in the customs union, there may
have to be some kind of order. not be the case for scotland? >> if they were to stay in the market. i can only tell you what the u.k. government is saying. they are saying there is no need for it. achieve it with goodwill on all sides. if there doesn't have to be a hard border on ireland, we don't want to see one. scotland is an internationalist country that did not want brexit. we want to keep trading with everyone. mark: starting with the referendum, postelection, do you still harbor ambitions to have another referendum in the next two years? >> it is a very confused picture with brexit. it is hard to make sense of. the first minister has recognized that. let's see what the deal on brexit looks like first before we take a further discussion about scottish independence.
it is very important to the people of scotland and we have a mandate to do that given the previous results. you have to have a clear picture on which to base the decision. mark: have you learned any lessons from catalonia? lesson which people in catalonia are pleased to refer to was the fact that when scotland had the referendum it was based on an agreement between the scottish and u.k. governments. the section 30 agreement. we laid the groundwork. we like to see that kind of dialogue happening in catalonia and spain. we don't want to see police beating up people when they go to vote. it can be resolved by dialogue. they can learn lessons from how we went about the referendum. vonnie: very nice. thank you for joining us in studio. the cabinet secretary for economy, jobs, and fair work. let's check in on the news. >> senator rand paul tweeted today that he is ready to cut
taxes but he has made it clear, no middle tax -- no middle class tax cuts should go up in a package. he was the only republican to vote against a budget bill that would allow the tax measure to be passed with no democratic votes. a would raise the deficit by trillion dollars in some republicans object to that. ,resident trump's top advisers they are urging the president to choose john taylor or jerome owelll for fed chair. unicef says the children who make up the rohingya muslims in myanmar are experiencing hell on earth. they are being forced to deal with overcrowded, squalid refugee camps in bangladesh.
one in five children in the area are acutely malnourished. the u.s. backed syrian forces are declared victory in raqqa. it is a major defeat for the islamic state check captured raqqa in 2014 and made the city the center of its brutal rule. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe, this is bloomberg. plunging on what john a completelyls " accessible earnings report." what does this mean? this is bloomberg. ♪
barton. european theis the stock of the hour, shares of ge, this on the company's disappointing earnings report. sutherland calling it a dumpster fire. >> that is colorful. this is an ugly quarter. they missed earnings estimates by 40%. take a look at how bad it is, let's hop into the bloomberg with the earnings function. they missed by 41% for adjusted earnings. here we see this was the estimate and this is where it came in. this is a terrible quarter. the estimates for this quarter, this is not a surprise. ge was down 20% this year and the company is having a hard time. estimates coming down and they still missed.
however it sounds as though the gas, was and oil and relative, missing by more than 200 basis points. john flannery had a sober tone. hopeful at the same time. he said it was unacceptable and we are in a reset. talking of cutting assets over the next three years. while the q&a was tame, some analysts pushed him on the dividend. he deferred questions to november 13, the investor-analyst day. one thing that was interesting, he talked of the board, they are in control. gardner, thed activist investor. the fact that their board is large, 18 members, that size could drop. that was interesting. for changes could be coming. vonnie: shares plunged immediately but is there a
possibility investors are thinking, this may have been the dump quarter and things will get better? >> i think that is a piece of it but the stock was down in such a big way and the conference call in the premarket was down in a huge way. the conference call helped the shares. if we take a listen to ceo john flannery, he had a serious tone as to the other members of management. many areas of has strength. it is clear from our current results that we need to make major changes. with urgency and depth of purpose. our results are unacceptable, to say the least. >> is clearly acknowledging they have a problem but also saying they have a solution. if you contrast, united, continental, oscar nunez, talking about digging into a whole, they were not able to message. if we hop into the bloomberg we can see what a difference this makes. this is a two day chart.
shares of ual down 12%. they beat estimates. they did not/as much as ge. such aference call was disaster. ge over the last two days slightly up. a conference call can make a difference, a strong message. vonnie: we will get more on november 13. abigail, thank you. mark: great stuff. the occ time. that'll of the charts. -- battle of the charts. high yield bonds, representing the biggest risk for markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
christine. >> bonds have more fun. volatility foral treasury features and s&p futures. a week that started with john taylor emerging as the fed chair front runner and ended with legislative progress on tax reform. volatility is still low on the top panel of this chart but it has been enough to push treasury volatility above stock volatility. this yellow line, trading above zero. the last few times this happened this year has not been too long. what will make it last longer this time? it depends. will investors find the narratives of bonds which are central banks in politics more compelling than the story of, another day, another record high for stocks? check out this chart. mark: great chat and great chart. vonnie: she did mention the
title of the chart which is hilarious. mark: she said it. in the context of her speech. it was very subtle, i liked it. vonnie: thank you in advance. now i make my presentation, shall i? i have nothing in particular to dress this up with. be aing technology might ince where we see a downturn stocks. nasdaq and thehe high-yield corporate bond index. the bank of america one which is a single for many. they are at record highs. that could indicate we are no jokes, notier,
tricks. that is unusual for me. a great title. watching for bubbles. i'm glad you mentioned that interview, that was one of the most insightful we have had in the last week. i love christine's title. bonds have more fun. i remember last week when we did this, i let it go until the end of the show. i will not be so cruel today. i'm feeling equal. there is a balance. in the force. it is a tie. i snuck in there. i don't think i deserve that. mark: that is it for bloomberg markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ is this a phone?
or a little internet machine? it makes you wonder: shouldn't we get our phones and internet from the same company? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit, or go to xfinitymobile.com.
♪ jonathan: from new york city, 30 minute dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ up, in the race for yellen's chair, front runners. the tax-cut effort takes a step forward in the senate. the ecb prepares to unveil its next move. data offset by ugly politics. we begin with the big issue, the race for the fed chair. >> leadership matters into the chair is does make a difference. >>