tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg October 22, 2017 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
♪ >> lowest in three months as abe has a victory, on track to be japan's longest-serving leader. >> no change in the boj is unprecedented stimulus. >> janet yellen defending her time in office as the race to the fed narrows to three-putted >> -- narrows to three. >> and cracking down on foreign property speculators. a.m. inust past 9:00
sydney. welcome to "daybreak: australia ." we are in our away from the opening of the markets. >> good morning. for thegood morning japanese prime minister, shinzo abe, and looks like he might get a super majority going into the elections. upsaw nikkei futures going half a percent. the yen at seeing the lowest in half a month. 114, getting close to the 113.90 is where we're at. abe'sexpectations that gamble has paid off, and looks like he is secure the super arerity, and the markets interpreting continuity when it
comes to this ultra-loose monetary policy, as well as flexible fiscal policy. let's get over to yvonne man, who is in tokyo. victory byis is a default. were there any surprises? >> pretty much deja vu again. forcing a split to what we saw in the 2014 election, but it is a potential come and looking more likely to be a landslide for shinzo abe, with the 465 seats for grabs. we are seeing the ldt and its coalition party coming out with 460 five.out of the a close second, a little bit of a surprise, the constitutional democratic party at about 54 seats. the other party, 49 seats. the tokyo governor calling it a tough result.
it was projected she would perhaps not gain as many seats as she did on sunday. she did apologize while she was at a conference in paris saying this caused unpleasant feelings for people throughout this campaign. despite the landslide victory from shinzo abe, we heard some humility in treating this win with humility. knowing there are still some who have a harsh view of him, as well as ldt, and perhaps the have learned from his cronies and scandal earlier this year. that she wasesting not in japan during this. it will be interesting to see if we could learn anything from that platform. the majority,h what does that mean for his economic plans? the loose monetary policy we know, look to negative interest rates, right? thene: right, but there is
super majority, will he make this constitutional reform more of a priority in exchange for reform? that had been crucial for him. it will still be a tough sell in revising article nine. you can, they are still quite split because japan is quite split for this issue. even if he has the two thirds majority, he still has to put this toward a national referendum. it's not an overnight success, so to speak. will he be using up his political capital in pursuing this as opposed to more politically tough reforms? is he going to implement this consumption cell stack -- sales tax in 2019? say, what the polls do analysts say about the economy about whether he can handle that? when we saw i push from 5% to 8% in the consumption sales tax, we
saw some problems. inflation is expected to pick up by 2019. some say perhaps 2019, the sales to 10% might 8% not have as big of it -- take of an impact as previous tax hikes, but you don't know. 2019, we will see growth slow in japan. the infrastructure boost for parent for the tokyo olympic's good start to fade. not to mention, the boj could be facing more pressure when it comes to unwinding qe. is jury is out, but if he serious about pursuing more of these reforms like labor reform, getting more women to work, more thisly care, child care, could have won it comes to labor productivity and could help some -- could help, some economists say, and offset the sales tax
hike in 2019. haidi: is this scene as an element of continuity with abe staying the course? he has one of the better relationships with president trump. does this set up japan and south korea in a more steady way to deal with north korea? absolutely. he has basically campaigned on the selection on fears over north korea. he has been using that as political capital, i guess you could save your the handling of north korea throughout these political tensions has been beneficial to shinzo abe. we have seen him bounce back from the cronyism scandals, with his hard-line stance on pyongyang. also, his cozy relationship with president trump. hisentioned in a rally that
partnership with president trump is to a point where he can pick up the phone and the president on pretty easily on urgent matters. he's trying to push forward on the u.s.-japan alliance. it looks like he is ready for a couple more rounds of golf with the president when he visits . month.ts next haidi: voters had to break the bad weather to vote. what is the latest on the thai phone? -- the typhoon? yvonne: heavy rain and wind gusts when we were heading to work today. the good news, it has weakened from the category two storm as it made its way from the south. we have some plans, toyota canceling shifts at its plants. airlines, japan airlines
canceling hundreds of flights. ana also. overall, we can see more cancellations as the rain comes through. on the also weigh turnout. according to some tallies, we saw the second lowest turnout on the selection since world war ii. the worst was 2014. usually when given low turnout, the lbre favorable for t. haidi: yvonne coming to us from tokyo as we try to assess the outcome of the national election. shinzo abe has potentially secured a super majority. a professor. great to have you. we talk about this potentially being a victory by default for shinzo abe. largely due to political
disorganization in his opponents. does it really matter? does he come out of this with a stronger mandate? there are some interesting messages. the public and voters in japan are clearly divided between the idealist and pragmatist. representsnds -- pragmatism. winner in thegest selection is the constitutional one and 50they took seats. it's an idealistic party, they would like to protect the constitution and are focusing on the constitution as its core issue. this will make it very difficult to become a national party in to lay develop a security strategy that balances with the constitutionalism. all they came away with a big
win because they are pragmatic. at this stage, there is no alternative to the pragmatism. opposition parties need to find a way to make that security equation work with their ideals. haidi: what does he come out of this with in terms of a stronger mandate? he talked about the second sales tax, it struck me as all it is a when the firste one was so disastrous beard list it with geopolitics for spirit what policies -- disastrous. let's start with geopolitics. stephen: let's start with north korea. how to denuclearize the peninsula. is a strengthening its alliance with the united states and coordinating with the united states, also it is for donating regionally and globally with the yuan but done harsher sanctions
-- with the you in to put down harsher sanctions. i think this is been appreciated in the regional community and also japan. with a rising china and its behavior in east china sea and south china sea. japan's preference under prime minister abe and arguably under previous prime ministers is to tie the relationship to the build states more deeply, more coordination and corporation between the lines. what we have seen from abe, reaching out to countries in southeast asia and asia, the amount, the philippines and australia to form strategic partnerships. these are nimble relationships that are not a military reliance but away japan has been building capacity, providing interoperability for countries
to the consumption more smoothly with each other. function more smoothly with each other. he needs this to push back against the assertiveness of the chinese military. haidi: it was interesting, one of the things the chinese president said, he spoke about the actions in the south china sea as one of the achievements of his first five years, and he was talking about the idea of boosting the military and creating a superpower some of the strongest nation in the world by the time we get to 2050. do you expect that we have these key political events this week, the tensions will continue with china, and that plenty more countries in the region might have to start picking sides? stephen: unfortunately, i think that in regional relations, they are related to domestic politics. what happens domestically in the chinese context.
few reasons.r a the chinese president is arguably the most powerful post civil war leader in the chinese context, apart from perhaps mao zedong. slowdown in the chinese economy, continued corruption campaign, and this is manyade president xi friends. we have an fire mental issues, a growing social and economic gap. it's putting pressure on the chinese government. looking at relations going forward in the region, don't think it matters so much what happens out of tokyo or hanoi or middle of, but what happens in the chinese political domestic context. there isis pressure, competition, if he feels insecure, it's unlikely he will take a more conciliatory approach to the countries and politicians that have been used by the chinese government for
political purposes, such as abe. >> i want to switch to abenomics. it is working,s, three quarters of consecutive growth. but of course, there is inflation, if you can call it that, or lack thereof. low to negative interest rates. i want to hop on the bloomberg terminal, 5909. negative interest rates. this is a great look in a 3-d graphic formation of where interest rates have gone to the negative over the past five years from 2012 to 2017. how much longer can we go? we expect it will go further with abe, but this is not helping a good part of the economy. that is true. let's take the big picture. when we look at cities like tokyo, osaka, they are beneficiaries of abenomics, low interest rates allow for
building, creating more businesses, allow for citizens to buy property. we see loose monetary funding allows for japanese businesses to export abroad. we have seen the greatest wage increase for part-time workers, slight increase for full-time workers. you have painted a broad picture. but the rural areas are not being affected. we see a rush of young people leaving rural areas. andinfrastructure is old, the economies look much like the economies of the 1970's, uncompetitive and an productive. -- and unproductive. abenomics has to do more. dynamism to take the of the urban areas into the rural areas, they have to build infrastructure, attractive places for families to move in and raise families. at this stage, i will it has
been effective in doing that. there's probably no policy that will arguably make that happen. the centersaka are of opportunity, employment, education and the japanese context. this over centralization is complicating abenomics in rural areas. >> we will have to leave it there. thank you very much for your thoughts and analysis. the conversation on japan continues, we will have some very big names on bloomberg television coming up. in about an hour, former bank of japan for member -- a former bank of japan board member, and we speak with asia society's diplomat in resident. he's a former u.s. secretary of state for east asian affairs. don't miss our interview with the former japanese vice minister of finance. stay tuned.
let's get the first word news with roslyn. >> catalonia's separatist leader says spain's control of the region is reminiscent of a dictatorship. to allow direct rule to madrid. they have until 10:00 a.m. monday to make the the pin -- their position on independence clear. new zealand's prime minister says she believes in the benefits of free trade and will pursue new agreement. she is indicated support for the transpacific partnership and intends to cut down on foreign property speculators. she is new zealand's youngest prime minister and the most useful leader in the world. she was elected three months after taking control of her party. the morning post says many as five members of one of china's committees may change when the
party congress and since week. the up with the -- the new lineup will be revealed next week. chief -- the says chief banking regulator might be named the next pboc governor. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: thanks. we will be live in beijing later. who may take over at the pb was pboc, asvernor, -- governor? >> but first, janet yellen defends the fed unconventional methods. this is bloomberg. ♪
praises his short list of candidates that makes it clear he is not made up his mind. donald trump spoke to fox business and he said a lot of things, it was a long interview. anything we didn't know? taxleen: a lot of it was on reform, he asked a lot of things anybody would ask. he is broadly speaking about five people, jay powell, janet yellen, and of course john taylor. what he said was exactly that, i am looking at a couple of people, i'm also looking at janet yellen, i like her a lot. three people in total he says he is looking at. also, a couple of others. presumably, the three he is looking at, powell, yellen and taylor, and the other two are kevin warsh and gary cohn. asked about , he says it isor
in my thinking. a couple of other things are in my thinking, too. treasury secretary steve mnuchin is pushing for powell. mike pence likes taylor. wall street thinks powell is the most logical. it's look at 3203. throughre predictive thursday. you can see mr. powell is in the lead, warsh and yellen have gone down. taylor is down, as well. i can't help but think that after trump has mentioned, when we get the latest results from the betting websites, we will see he has moved up a bit. taylor is sparking a bigger bond selloff in howell. it would be saying a 10 point drop in yields if
taylor gets chosen rather than jay powell. haidi: we talked about john taylor widely perceived as the most hawkish candidate, is this a good enough reason to not give him the job? kathleen: that's what everybody is suggesting. there was a terrific story about this on the bloomberg this weekend, look at it. they pointed out that given he has talked about fed policy, he might have to make a hard pivot. you, 917.er chart for it is the taylor rule that makes people say this. at unemployment and inflation, he says the fun rate should be at 3.75. slightly different coefficients brings you to 2.5%. he is also been a vocal critic of said policies. i think maybe the biggest question for his potential to be
fed chair is the question, has he been snared by his own rule? many bankers, many fed people, think the rule is too rigid. he goodder if compromise with other people, could he collaborate? i think he could, but this is a question. when the fed started doing qe and mortgage bond purchases, he might them, and more than rising bank reserves amid all of the steps they took a drink it great recession could boost inflation. one more thing, a lot of conservatives republicans, led by an ipo center, want to get rid of it yellen and change the fed direction. i think that is the camp that might be pushing more broadly for john taylor over powell, but powell is considered a safe choice kind of like yellen. haidi: thank you. that is one of the top stories of the hour. kathleen hays in new york. 20 more to come on "daybreak:
♪ a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. pinto holding talks with indonesian groups about its exit from gold and copper mines. they are keen to sell part of the operation. we're also told there is no guarantee the talks will advance held itsnoble group shares from the stock exchange on friday, and it's oil unit is being sold. urgently.s cash a deal may be announced later monday. this is ahead of what is being called a major transaction. next, elections have rattled the markets. why the promised minister needs
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♪ is 9:30 a.m. in sydney, markets open about 30 minutes. teachers are looking positive, a positive start when it comes to the nikkei trading. up just about 1/10 of 1%. i am in new york. you are watching "daybreak: australia." let's get the first word news. >> the dollar yen weakened to its lowest in more than three months as prime minister shinzo abe pertains a super majority in parliament. one twong coalition thirds of the vote. partners one at
least 300 -- 310 of the 465 seats in play. the fledgling party of hope one about six he seeks. -- 60 seats. a powerful storm is hitting tokyo this morning after drenching much of the country on sunday. it is a category 2 system. it is projected to weaken as it makes landfall, what to bring driving rains and floods. taylor has halted work at plans, and -- toyota has halted work at its plants. a hard brexit would not be what some fear. britain's divorce from europe without an agreement remains a possibility. subjectit would mean a to the terms and conditions of the world trade organization. in bloomberg survey of economists said the ecb will hold on percentages to $30
million next year. it's waiting for inflation a pickup. continuing buying for about 10 months. it's limits are just about 200 and -- 200 million euros. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ thank you. let's get a quick update on the markets, as asian markets get started in new zealand. we continue to digest the policy implications of the new coalition from last week. the u.s. dollar doing very well in the friday session. we have the passing of the senate resolution looking to pave the way for another step forward for the tax reform package, the u.s. dollar hitting a three month high, fixed-rate
weekly gains. ahead of the citi open, of about the citi open, up about five points. property, eye on whether it will show further signs of a slowdown. we're looking at a sizable week the ecb decision, maybe laying the groundwork for stimulus tightening into next year. let's get more on what we should be watching in asia with our global markets editor. let's look at the japanese election. it looks like we're getting continuity. abe staying where he is. >> it is buy the rumor and by the fact, in a way. we had a weakening of the end recently, a lot of it -- the yen
, a lot of it had to do with the dollar. this lays the foundation for abe, and all of the policies is trying to enact will be interesting, but also with the bank of japan, and even if you wrote it does not stay for an extra term, which is a possibility, are not going to bring in anyone who is not dovish. we have loose monetary policy, which is a bullish standpoint from equities position. we have felt the ebb and flow in the last couple of years, and indeed japanese stocks at the start of this year were a laggard. they're having a decent run of late. short-term,iate some relief and maybe equities higher. ramy: in new zealand, the fallout from the election result keeps on going with the kiwi dollar being sold off aggressively, down about one third of 1% against the u.s.
dollar. why are investors so concerned about life under the new prime minister? underlying the whole tone is the sense that the economy is going to need to get over some speed bumps in the next few months and years under this coalition agreement. as you say, the kiwi has been sold down forcefully, and with some aggressive selloff in the last couple of days. is off to a 3/10 of 1% this morning. what is interesting is how the equity market's reaction, -- reacting, it has been resilient. is being caught up in this, and though it is closed today, what we saw on friday was notable moves in the health care space. don't give as much funding to the health care sector, you can see names like oceana health care to come off a
bit, and you saw some of those shares selloff a little bit on friday. those,e bank cutting around the potential to have less funding in that space. these are some of the implications that are likely to come through. and there is the debate on housing and immigration. ramy: we will leave it there. we will continue on because we artanalk about everything is going to be doing informing paul, we will see some significant policy changes. what is the biggest thing to expect? a few key areas, just as adamant mentioned, immigration will be one of them. a coalition partner for the nationalist new zealand wanted immigration cut down to 10,000 per year, a huge reduction. lester, they took 73,000. -- last year they took 73,000.
there is likely to be some changes to the minimum wage, that is likely to go up, and in terms of immigration, there could be a cut in foreign investments, particularly in housing and property. that may impact tpp talks. over the weekend, the prime minister said new zealand would tpp minuso seek the one membership and is open to new foreign trade. saying we can balance the living for exporters and being sure new zealanders can buy homes. but as adam was also saying, the markets responding not that great to the new government, dominic stevens saying the action of house prices will be welcome, but probably a short-term gp hit. haidi: getting down to the business of governing, putting together a cabinet to be a struggle. paul: it is. will be a three headed
government, there will be three members of the green party sitting outside of the cabinet room, and inside there will be for new zealand first ministers. we were speaking about how leader is.eir he could be named foreign minister again as he was in 2008. overall, labor, the government is very inexperienced. minister, this will be his first time in power. he did say that in large reassuringly that the national fiscalidn't invent responsibility, sending the signal he will be a steady hand. personality,lorful is the fact we did not end up with him in government reassuring? that new zealand will avoid the populist -- the populism we have
in the u.s. and u.k.? people tend to vote for winston peters. making positions . his always a very mercurial, they about which way -- mercurial about which way he's going to go. haidi: we heard in the last hour, a conversation was held between president trump and the pm designate good what sort of foreign policy is new zealand going to be conducting? if winston peters follows through with his campaign rhetoric, you're likely to see the shutters go up to a degree. he's always wanted to cut immigration to the bone. i remember that being a line he campaigned on in the mid-1990's, we are to cut immigration to the bone. he has always been very
suspicious of foreign investment particularly, when it comes to areas like property. these are such hot button issues in new zealand. people can understand these things, and that's why he keeps getting this reliable vote again and again. but he is 72 years old, so he may be looking at a legacy. it will be interesting to see how the government plays out, particularly with three parties involved and a very strong opposition sitting across the road. it is a 120 member house. the national party has 56 seats, a hugely experienced bench and they will not make life easy for the new government. jaded, but it is something to watch for sure. up next, rex tillerson has a warning for countries trading with iran. we take a look at his comments in reality. -- riyadh.
york. haidi: i'm haidi lun in sydney. you are watching "daybreak: australia." the in drc has said it will prevent shuttered or illegal still france from returning to the market, it also and since it won't stop the economy growing the -- beyond $12 trillion this year. let's get over to beijing, we continue to cover the party congress. the best of both worlds, apparently. tom: knows the price they think they are going to hit the gdp target of 6.5%, given we have seen two quarters of 6.9%, and it was at 6.8%. they are balancing that with what is now a pretty tough crackdown in terms of the steel sector. out sprinted what
we saw in 2015, but we saw a drop down. the steel sector is coming down -- coming in and 72 million tons. compared with august as 75 million tons. this is also very much an environmental push and is expected to get tougher for steel months going into the winter. we heard from the vice chair for of the development reform commission, the top planning body on this subject. stick to the mission of reducing still capacity, meanwhile, we must prevent laggard, shuttered and illegal still plenty from returning to the market. at the moment, china's steel industry has a considerable capacity, we must balance the demand and supply and into new reform on the supply side. these curbs have already had an impact in terms of the price, we saw the price of rebar in september hit levels we haven't since it's -- haven't
seen since 2011. also, there will likely be pressure is on other producers, whether that be in the eu or u.s. expert onith an friday, he said he expects it to fall, that china is finally delivering on their effort to cut back on capacity, it will finally make an impact. ramy: looking at what could finally be happening in terms of political shuffles as we expect every five years, there are on the politic level in the pboc level, what are you hearing? the pboc, it is interesting. -- has been his position for 15 years. one of the longest central bank governors you'd -- governors.
we are told he will be stepping down either this year or before march of 2018. that is going to happen. the question shifts to who will take over. one of the leading contenders is the head of the banking regulatory commission here, he is being lined up. we expect him to quite possibly have a leading tense and taking over the governorship of the pboc. the fed is looking for relief and the bank of japan, as well, governor kuroda's future is the question. in that context, one of the headng contenders is the of the banking regulatory commission. to say, when the party congress wraps up, and then wednesday, we will get the bureau unveiled. the chinese post is reporting ,hat five names on the bureau the standing committee come up
currently 7, 5 of the seven will be changing hands. the president is keeping his position. five will be changing. shamn will be stepping down. if you been rumors that if he had stayed on, it might indicate that the president might extend his term, but according to these reports and looks like the anticorruption czar will be stepping down. beijingl right, tom in with the latest at the national party congress. in the united states, the trump administration is stepping up pressure on iran with a warning from secretary of state. he is in the middle east intending to ease the gulf standoff between qatar and saudi arabia. we have more from washington. what are you hearing? ros: good morning, or good evening to you. rex tillerson the not have too
much success in the middle east today in getting saudi arabia to move on its month-long standoff against qatar. i don't know if that was a surprise to him, he signaled that when he was interviewed by bloomberg last week. nonetheless, he can away and said the parties are ready to talk and that situation is going to drag on a little later. he is the first of two of president trump's cabinet members in the middle east this week. stevel be followed up by mnuchin, the treasury secretary, who leaves in a couple of days and will spend almost a week there. it is quite a big push by the trump administration to follow new iran change, the policy that president trump has put into place. ramy: you say it's interesting, they are getting this one-two punch of tillerson and mnuchin.
i am curious, to what degree can the saudi/a rock alliance there raq alliance stay together, or is it just a hope? ros: i think it is a hope as much is anything. the u.s. has some leverage, some diplomatic jawboning. it's a little too early to think there could be a strong alliance. tillerson has a busy period head, heading to pakistan, india and geneva. what is top of his agenda? what is he hoping to achieve at each stop? ros: it's possible he may also go to afghanistan after going to pakistan and india, that has been reported in the indian press but no confirmation. a veryry tillerson give interesting speech in washington
last week, he had very warm words for india, not unusual for u.s. administration, but he had sharp ports for pakistan, indicating they are not doing enough to combat terrorism, the knocked down the taliban. i think that is likely to be at the top of his agenda when he needs with his pakistani counterparts. in india, much warmer relations, there will certainly be some talk about his arms sales the u.s. hopes to continue to india. steve mnuchin, the treasury secretary, also headed to the middle east starting wednesday. this comes an interesting time when we have an interesting report from an israeli tv station to do with potential peace plans that president trump is reportedly about to announce. ros: very interesting, a little mysterious. don't have further details from the israeli television report. as you know, president trump has
wanted to make a big splash in israeli-palestinian he's talks. -- peace talks. secretary mnuchin will spend three full days in jerusalem, he will meet with benjamin netanyahu, he will meet with top officials. i do wonder if his today's there and the israeli report might be connected. the visit to the middle east by secretary mnuchin supposedly is trip to-up to trump's the region and may and the creation of a new antiterrorist financing center. the will be a lot of focus on that, as well. ramy: speaking of mr. trump, what is he expected to be up to looking ahead to this week? ros: could be a big week for him again. he seems to be on the verge of ending the suspense about his
pick to run the federal reserve. we thought there might be something coming out today, that has not been the case. really we are taking it day by day to see whether janet yellen will get a second term or whether it will be john taylor, powell or some videos. trump also along with vice president mike pence spoke to some house republican tax writers today, urging them to take up or follow on from the senate actions last week and really get moving on tax-writing and the big taxcutting plan the trump has. i sort of expect he will be active on that. he may spend time this week calling individual lawmakers and really putting the pressure on in terms of what the white house wants to see from the legislation, and also getting it
moving as quickly as possible. ramy: last week we did see above them at when markets because of that bipartisan deal on corporate tax reforms. we will be looking ahead to that. a busy week ahead. thanks. you can get around up of the stories you need to get your day going. bloomberg subscribers can use the terminal. it's also available on mobile. you can customize your settings so you only get news on what you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. cisco systems is close to a deal to acquire software maker broadsoft, it could be announced monday. it has a market value of about $1.7 billion and has been working with jefferies group to seek suitors. it attracted interest from buyout firms, sources say the
cisco transition has not been finalized and details may change. haidi: australia's financial faceator is set to industry rigging cases. the investment commission is prosecuting, alleging that traders sought to manipulate trading. they are set to meet in the melbourne court in the hour. that is it for "daybreak: australia." we have remy next, and yvonne will be joining you. abe had a super majority, and we will be talking about the outcome of the japanese election and what it means for governor kuroda. we will have guests talking about policy going forward now that abe has taken away stronger mandate. plenty of gas to come in the next two hours. later,hat is right, and
we have an asian society policy institute diplomat in residence and daniel russell will be joining us. he has more than 30 years of service in the state department. she will be talking about what is happening with the japanese elections as well as the effects and ramifications for north asia and what might be happening between japan and the u.s. and their security alliance. to a: we will be talking former bank of japan board member, always really interesting. 7:10 hong kong time. abe has it is fortunate walked away with an election victory. when it took -- it comes to the consumption tax, whether he will put in some of these structural reforms, she says that will take
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