tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg October 24, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: here are the top stories we covering from the bloomberg and around the world. a new turn in brexit negotiations. philip hammond sides with the prime minister and backs away from a push for an early brexit transition. where does this leave negotiations? how much could bunds and euros move if the ecb cuts on the purchases? the latest on the ecb decision as it looms on thursday. .n interview with tony ressler does he markets climbing higher having a look-- at european equities, we are 30 minutes away from the end of the
tuesday section -- session. these currencies are climbing against the dollar, these gaining. rising.lds are i want to get to the corporate give, novartis planning to its division an extra year and a half to rebounded before they decide to spin it off. they reported their first quarterly profit increase in almost three years. drag foreen a bit of a has been a biton of a drag for novartis. shares in novartis today down by 3%. a considerable increase in third half -- petrochemicals and intermediates
such as assets and solvents helped drive process. investor attention likely to focus on the agricultural product side after a six alien dollar purpose -- -- six billion dollar purchase. unicredit reporting a sixfold jump in third-quarter profits, driven by the sale of its pie and near global asset management division. , partlyfell by 3.9% upset by higher revenue from fees and commissions. unicredit shares up 1.75%. we are 90 minutes into the session in the u.s.. how is it looking? abigail: it is looking pretty bullish, record highs for the dow. the dow having its best day in .bout six weeks, up 8/10 of 1% we have gains in the s&p 500 and dow is really the
outperforming on big performances from industrial companies like 3m and caterpillar. let's take a look at what is happening sector wise, because this helps the plane -- explain some of the divergence. this is the imap in the bloomberg on the s&p 500. the best sector, the industrial sector up 8/10 of 1%, big strength from 3m and caterpillar. , take a look at health care, down 7/10 of 1%. they are pretty evenly split between up sectors and down sectors. let's take a look at some of the health care laggards, eli lilly down 2%. leappharma giant third-quarter earnings and they raised the third-quarter guidance but what investors may not like, the company will not file a challenge to santa fees -- santa fees insulin drug.
is one reason that earlier the nasdaq had briefly been in the red, weakness for the biotech index. they had been on pace for the worst day since august. the big drag, biogen down about 6% after the company beat earnings and revenue, but here we see the breakdown mark for the drugs. 35%,op drug, and ms drug, that the numbers and it is slowing in the u.s., and the upcoming -- up-and-coming drug beat the us -- beat the consensus number on the street. briefly with bloomberg intelligence and they -- the trajectory seems to be a little bit slower so perhaps a buying activity for some investors who like biotech. mark: chancellor of exchequer philip hammond answering
questions. he is confident the government will be able to give businesses more certainty on the transition process. objective isment's to reach a deal and as the prime minister made clear in her florence speech, part of that deal with want to agree and implementation. -- implementation here. or businesses -- implementation period. , i thinkning us now one labour party members said it best. discussing transition in october next year does not leave much time for businesses to prepare for the march 2019 deadline. really.doesn't i think october would be too late. e and u.k. are kind of looking at january as the moment they can start talking about a transition. what philip hammond the chancellor, and theresa may said
yesterday, it is kind of raising eyebrows in brussels because they are thinking, this is what we knew all along. you cannot start talking about transition. you certainly cannot get a deal on transition before the british government knows exactly what it wants for a future relationship with the e.u. the transition -- the chancellor saying they want a transition period but they are not going to get a signed off deal until just before march 2019 when the u.k. leaves, and that does not give much certainty to business. julie: what happens in the meantime? what is the next interim step before we can get to the following interim step? ian: there is a lot of interim steps, isn't there? during the next eight weeks, they are critical because between now and a summit for e.u. leaders around christmas, they have to get an agreement on
the money the u.k. will pay, the brexit bill as it is being called. not until there is an agreement between the u.k. and you on that can they start talking about a transition. -- e.u. on that they can start talking about a transition. and they will start talking about transition in the new year. they are not going to get a final agreement. as the e.u. says, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and everything will not be agreed until march 2019. to u.k. saying we are going get a transition, but they will not be able to say for certain what will happen. mark: and maybe brexit will not happen anyway. here is what donald tusk said. >> it is in fact up to london how this will end, with a good deal, no deal, or no brexit.
scenarios, of these we will protect our common interest only by being together. ncker called it a tragedy yesterday, task talking about the possibility of no tu --tusk talking about the possibility of no brexit. ian: they see the chaos in london and they see the cabinet is still divided on what the u.k. wants as a future trading relationship with the e.u., and until they decide that, they cannot really come to an agreement. talks about no brexit or no deal, does he mean everything will fall apart and the u.k. will leave the e.u. somehow things will get reversed and the u.k. will stay? there -- they are certainly not
ruling it out. nobody knows how this is going to end. mark: that is why we are going to have you on regularly through march of 2019. julie? julie: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. courtney: president trump and republican senator bob corker are added again, this time over taxes. corker is calling on the president to stay out of the tax overhaul effort and expressed concern the white house is making the process harder. trump replied saying corker could not get elected dogcatcher and is fighting tax cuts. all ryan was back -- paul ryan was asked about the impact on the tax bill. >> bob wants to get tax reform, the president wants to get tax reform. i'm glad the president is coming to lunch as i believe it is best
to settle these things in person and i hope they can do that. courtney: president trump goes to capitol hill to meet with republican lawmakers. the four-month band on refugees ended today. the u.s. temporary halted omissions of refugees. president has a broader travel ban on people from several countries but courts have repeatedly blocked that policy. islamic state now controls only 5% of syria, according to russia's defense minister. that is a dramatic decline from the height of the rise of islamic state, when the group seized one third of syria and iraq. china, the communist party has elevated xi jinping to the same status as maus a dung. sae dung.oved -- mau t
saudi arabia's investment fund is holding its investment initiative. erik schatzker has been talking with global business leaders and joins us with one of the biggest names in private equity. erik: mark, that would of course ler, ceo and cofounder of ares management. 100 $8 billion, nice to see you in riyadh. s have anudi extraordinary amount of money to invest but there are a great many investors. some money and money managers, not everybody can get everything. how competitive is it and what is your key to getting the saudis to work with you? tony: i think they have a very long-term perspective and how they are trying to invest their capital and they are also very focused on having a two-way street with investment professionals and investors. to they bring investors
region and make quality investments around the world? i think generally you have to separate yourself by doing something particularly well and being able to evidence that you have done it over the past 20 years. we believe the world of credit, certainly the world of private equity, and the world of real estate, we have been operating in these asset classes for 20 years. i think the illiquid asset classes, real estate lending or private equity, we might be able to separate ourselves somewhat by track record and from the length of time we have been in these asset classes. erik: does that message resonate here and in the gulf region? are: there is no doubt, we seeing two important factors in the alternative asset industry and the factors are one, we are seeing a rotation of capital from depositories to non-deposit
, to non-institutional investors like sovereign. we are also seeing -- which is how we build ares management -- we are going after the asset classes, large banks are leaving whether they want to or whether they are being forced to. going after those asset classes in a substantial way. this would you say -- and may sound microphone a question because we have seen the stock upket up 15% -- stock market this year 15% -- the reality is, the real money investors are putting more and more into private markets. is this the age of the liquidity? dity?liqui tony: people have realized there are huge opportunities in ill iquid markets. when interest rates are low for an extended time, asset values are rather high so people look
for self originated assets that generally speaking can survive adjustments in the marketplace. for whatever it is worth, when you are in the middle market lending business, in the private abs business, the energy infrastructure business, the rescue lending is this to the energy industry, these are all interesting places to be. but meaningful performers in all types of markets. erik: they generate a higher rate of return. you saw in today's opening we had several world-class investors talking about expected returns for their investments. erik: in the single digits. tony: 3% to 4% is very much in the single digits that i heard at the opening ceremony and discussion. the alternative asset manager is here to generate 8% to 10% returns in credit.
yes, we are far less liquid in many of our products, but we think we pay our investor for that illiquidity. and ares have been successful in finding those your firmough to grow to triplet over the past 10 years to $108 billion in assets. as more and more money chases those opportunities, in part fueled by investments from saudi arabia and other countries, are those opportunities disappearing? tony: it depends on the market, of course, but as far as we are concerned, as we talked about this transition from bank balance sheets to nonbank balance sheets, the origination of middle-market lending, once existed on the balance sheet of large banks and now is moving offs.
much largerlass is than folks in the market might appreciate so our view is yes, at some point competition changes and people should expect lower rates of return in some areas, but generally speaking in private credit, we are big believers and continue to be. erik: you may be aware that a decade ago, wolfgang schaeuble and, the outgoing finance minister of germany, suggested the rising amount of debt could trigger the next crisis and of course he was spot on. are we at that point yet with the accumulation of debt, particularly in markets that are not as visible as they used to be to financial regulators? that accumulation of debt is getting to a point where we could be confronting another crisis? 2017/2018ok at differently than how we 2009.ved 2007, 2008,
the financial institutions were so much more levered and less transparent in the 2007/2008 financialwould argue institutions has had an improvement in their balance sheets and we should take comfort. people are using leverage and there are individual investors and institutions who buy long-term assets with short-term liabilities. ,hat is an institutional issue i do not think that is a market risk as much as an investor or institutional risk. erik: what about underwriting standards? the longer a credit cycle goes on the looser they tend to become. this one is getting long in the tooth. how loose are the lending standards? tony: there is no doubt when interest rates are the slow, asset values, shall we say, are somewhat inflated. yes, i do believe if you are an investor in credit you should know who your investment
professionals are. i think credit matters. the analysis and evaluation of credit matters. we are living in a world with low interest rates and default rates, so generally speaking this will come home to roost at some point. we sought a year ago in the industry industry and all i'm trying to put -- energy industry . you have to evaluate credit quality if you are in the credit business. erik: you see it from both sides, as a private equity investor. underwriter understand as i talk about credit, being in the private equity business, the self originated direct lending business and the syndicated loan and high-yield business, it is an enormous advantage to be in all of those asset classes, as you do compare and contrast and
tried to go where the opportunity is most attractive. erik: how long do you think alternative asset managers like ares -- and i could name a few others in your ballpark, carlisle, blackstone -- tony: have not heard of those guys. erik: oaktree as well. how much longer can they continue growing at the pace they have been growing? tripled assets in the past 10 years but they are all at $100 billion or more. tony: for most folks in the asset management business they would hopefully agree it is not about rapid growth. we could have grown faster than we have. are you growing with assets that are in fact assets you manage lockups,ets you have assets that you can live through bumps in the road? as far as i'm concerned, i will bet most of our friendly competitors would agree, it is
not really about your growth. are you growing into assets that you are outperforming for your investors? at the end of the day we see a whole lot of assets as i keep repeatingand i'm myself -- a lot of assets moving off the balance sheets of institutions that used to own them and are no longer the right type of institution. middle market loans should not be on banking institutions that have 15 times leverage. erik: these are clearly good times. you are finding opportunities. your investors are increasingly turning to your firm to solve their problems. you could have grown even faster than you have. what isn't going right? what concerns you? in the assetare management business, you should be concerned about asset prices and low interest rates. at the end of the day we are
generally not approached by investors to stay in cash. we are approached dubai in the best way we believe one can buy in themselves -- to the best way we believe one can protect themselves from the market. that is in the private abs or asset-backed lending business or real estate lending business or forms of private equity. you have to decide, do you want to stay in cash? if you want to be an investor in today's world, be very cautious in the quality. erik: does that mean you are more cautious than ever before? tony: what investors says they are not cautious? focus on high-quality assets is to us the best protection in a very high-priced marketplace. erik: tony, thank you for joining me. , ceo oftony ressler ares management. mark: fantastic conversation, .rik with tony ressler
time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news now. general motors posting third-quarter profits that beat estimates. gm cutting american field goals production by more than a quarter but mitigated the impact by boosting the sales of suvs and a technological transformation in the future. earnings weres boosted by jeep, audi, and alfa romeo vehicles. united technologies has raised its for your for the second quarter in a row. the company makes products ranging from elevators to aircraft landing gear. they are increasing production of a new jet engine.
united technologies also making an expansion into aerospace. barclays is looking into some risky business according to a person familiar with the matter. they may push into riskier debt trading and deal with credit products in the u.s. jes staley is encouraging the investment bank to take more challenges and recapture market share. that is your business flash this hour. take a look at where european equities are trading as we upload -- approach the tuesday close. benchmark, the stoxx 600 is down by one quarter of 1%, the other indices are rising. ♪
autos gaining, oil, banks, and gas as well. investors await the ecb meeting on thursday. let's get to catalonia. kai-shek bank reporting third-quarter profit that beat estimates. analysts ponder the impact of the crisis on its business. the chief executive relying on revenue from the insurance and asset management business, and cost savings and synergies from its absorption of bpi as record rates -- record low rates hit revenue. there down by 9.7% since october 1 referendum. today, up by 1.15%, ending that .osing run excessive speed in the disposal of nonperforming loans could derail the recovery in italy's financial system, so said the
finance minister, citing proposed measures by the ecb to tackle debt on lenders books. we must try to be very careful in getting the speed right, the timing right. if we do it too fast we could derail the whole system which is now gaining steam. 300ian banks which had billion euros of growth npl's at the end of last year have been selling portfolios and using securitization to limit their exposure. this was the battle of the charts victor yesterday, i thought we would wheel it out again week is the nikkei is continuing to rise for a 16th day, the best run since it started in 1970. the index also rose to its highest level since july 11, 1996. it's rsi is now 89.
the boj of course is interestingly -- has interestingly reduced its buyer etf's. compared with a monthly average of ¥505 billion in 2017. 16 days in a row, julie, that is quite a run. julie: a winning chart yesterday and today. in the u.s. we are seeing a special strength in the dow, the only of the three major averages to trade at a record because so many of its members are doing well on the back of earnings. caterpillar is on the rise, 3m as well. the s&p and nasdaq gaining as well. within the s&p we have a winner and a loser in the earning space. corning the best performer, the maker of gorilla glass.
we have whirlpool on the downside. their costs are rising and they are winding down their century long partnership with sears. outside of stocks, we are looking at rates that are rising . 2.4%, we have been talking about this level on the 10 year. it is above 2.4% now, 2.41%. and the dollar is rising in tandem. it on and talke about the ecb, draghi just two years left in his office, facing his most difficult task bringing in the asset purchase program he started in 2013. the question is not whether he will bring -- unveil plans to scale back kiwi, but how and how soon -- qe but how and how soon. for more on how markets are preparing for the decision is a
bloomberg economics area economist. 30 billion for nine months, you are slightly outside that. why and does it matter? maxime: it does not matter in terms of volumes. what we have looked at is the precedent, december 2016 they had on the table two options for tapering. extend for another six months at an unchanged pace. now they are going to mix the two because they feel more comfortable, so a more gradual phaseout for six months, keeping it open ended. how do you get a compromise between the hawks on the ecb and the doves on the ecb? is there such a thing as a compromise? maxime: i think it is possible and if you look at their statement, no one is against tapering.
no one is for a rate hike so they are pretty much on the same line. i think the six month 40 billion option is the most compromise because if you look at the 40 billion, it is gradual and .llows to phaseout qe the open ended will please the doves but will not bring it closer to six months. xime, in the u.s. we have our dots which one could argue could -- have depriest and them -- decreased in importance. how important is the forward guidance? maxime: i think it is much more important than the tapering. the forward guidance promises to keep interest rates at a low level well past -- is very important. we think it is very important as draghi said. he will probably stay firm on the guidance and if you look at 2019, has mandate in october
2019, he probably will leave the ecb without ever hiking rates. julie: when you look at that as his legacy, perhaps, what kind of tone the you think he will strike on thursday? maxime: he is probably going to be cautiously optimistic, probably pleased by the macro economic background. growth momentum is strong. we had pmi this morning proving that again. inflation is off the target, but if you look at the details, wages, core inflation come you can see signs there might be a turning point. domestic inflation is trending up again, a good sign for central bankers, and compensation for employees is also trending up again. do the rules of the program need to between at all? maxime: probably not for now. scrapped the have
deposit rate they probably have more space. a share of the public bonds will go down. mark: how is the euro going to react? maxime: that is a good question. mark: depends on the announcement. maxime: the euro has not really moved over the past weeks. there was a stock appreciation of the first half of the year but since then it has been trading at levels pretty much stable. mark: will draghi be comfortable with these sort of levels below 1.20? maxime: that is probably something they have in their forecast and if it goes a bit above that they probably have to review the forecast. now i think they can be quite pleased with the fact the euro is not appreciating anymore. mark: thank you. julie: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. courtney: and the u.k., theresa may's cabinet is under pressure
to agree on the kind of trade deal britain wants after leaving the e.u. british businesses want an urgent agreement that would let them trade as usual for two years after brexit, but may has signaled there were not be a swift transition deal. catalonia's largest bank ones a prolonged political conflict would hurt the economy. to the urging resolution fight over independents or else the pain will start to show. they have led a nexis of catalonian firms who have set up their regions -- their offices outside of the region. opec is not just negotiating an extension of the oil curbs through next year that also working on it exit strategy. the goal, to a sure investors they will not flood the market. the senate is expected to approve a $37 billion disaster aid bill to send to the
president for his signature. the money will pay for damages in texas,hurricanes florida, and puerto rico, and wildfires in the west. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. julie: coming up next, chairman of the house information technology subcommittee joins us ahead of the first meeting on personal ad disclosures. this is bloomberg. ♪
washington takes on silicon valley after months of interference from russia in the u.s. election, and act would mandate disclosures for social media. they will host their first hearing today. this comes before the november 1 square off between facebook, google, twitter, and congress. joining us is senator -- representative will heard. -- hurd. he will be helping lead that meeting. what is your goal of the hearing? what will you look to find out from those who are testifying? rep. hurd: to make sure we standardize our understanding on political ads and disclosures in new media and traditional media. i think because of what happened with russian activity to try to get involved in our elections, that is a lot of information
that is correct -- incorrect. if we standardize our conversation in a thoughtful, bipartisan manner we can see if there are ways to strengthen not only our first amendment rights but that political advertising is done in a way that law says it should be. julie: what role do you think these social media and internet companies need to play in policing fake news or in policing propaganda that is placed by foreign entities, for example? rep. hurd: i think one of the problems that many of our social media companies have is authentication. are these people who they say they are? that is something i know they are dealing with. dealing with the use of social media for untoward action, we have been dealing with this for some time. when you look at counterterrorism, trying to stop the spread of islamic extremism, this is a similar subset of the problem.
what we are looking at today is political advertisements, whether it is express advocacy, vote for this person or do not vote for that person or issue advocacy, whatever the topic of the day. these should be handled the same way when it comes to traditional media or new media. julie: now there is, as i mentioned, a bill that has been introduced in the senate, a bipartisan effort. do you support that bill? i believe there is also a version on the house side as well. rep. hurd: there is a version in the house and the author of that version will be participating in the hearing today. i am not a cosponsor of this legislation. where weat a point say, do we need regulation? all these groups have involvement in political activity on media and they are
looking at revamping their rules as well, but this is what congress does. we provide oversight, have conversations to understand is there a narrow or broad area that needs to be fixed, and let's go fix it. for me, this is a first step. let's get smart people from different positions talking about this in the same place. i am sure this piece of legislation will come up and everyone will give opinions on that and then we see where we go from there. folks who are testifying today are mostly representatives from the industry, lobbyists and such. you feel like you need to talk to the executives? rep. hurd: many of these trade associations are there to provide insights from multiple companies at the same time, and so that is why we have the why westers, that is have somebody representing internet advertisers. this is the first of i think
many conversations that need to be ongoing. we also need to talk with the s.e.c. on how we can make sure that the americans political advertising is trying to influence them. atie: what you are looking today is the advertising side of the equation and there is also the so-called fake news side. i believe you are also on the house permanent select committee on intelligence which is investigating that issue. there has been recent reporting that the investigation on that side is not necessarily going as planned or as wanted. i am curious if you are satisfied and what you would like to see happen. rep. hurd: as planned or wanted by whom? the investigation on the house committee of intelligence needs to be thorough and bipartisan. we need to follow any lead, wherever it may take us.
i think most people want to see this get resolved quickly, but we have to take our time and make sure we are doing the diligence the american people deserve. julie: do you think that investigation is on track? there has been some recent reporting it is not organized and concern about devin nunes overstepping his bounds. you say it depends on the way who wants. is it going the way you want it to? rep. hurd: it is congress soma -- ingres's, so you will have , so youty -- congress will have some partisan bickering but i believe this is proceeding in a thorough way and is being done in a bipartisan way. we should get to the bottom as quickly as we can. i have always said the russians are not going to stop. they have been doing this, trying to influence or
asymmetrical warfare in europe for a number of decades. they are likely involved in cyberattacks right now against ukraine, against their metro system and their airport right now. we have to make sure we are looking at this issue in a bipartisan way, and i do believe that cybersecurity and defending our system is still one of those bipartisan issues in washington, d.c. julie: thank you so much for your time. looking forward to seeing the outcome of that hearing this afternoon. ,hat was congressman will hurd republican of texas. mark: eli lilly reporting third-quarter results better than expected, shares falling anyway. they will not challenge a generic version of its best-selling medication. they are telling bloomberg they are considering a sale of their animal health business. joining us with both sides of the story, taylor riggs.
what is really interesting as investors were initially excited about this because it is exactly what pfizer did with their animal business in 2013. the ceo saying he is looking at may 2018 to update investors on what this could be, a spinoff or an ipo. >> now that we have put that together is a globally competitive industry it is time to look at the best options going forward. we will take eight months or so ahead and get back to investors in mid-2018 with our conclusions. health the animal business makes up about 13% revenue for the overall company. quarter, year over year at about $741 million in sales. the ceo saying it is a core piece for their overall company even though they are growing in other areas.
that was the good news for today. julie: animal health is about 13% of the revenue. there is a single drug that provides another 13% or so of revenue, the insulin drug. diabetes pricing pressures continue. people are not too happy about that. taylor: and that took the stock lower. you had an original positive reaction around 9:33 and it took that stock lower and the s&p health care index lower by about 2.5% when i checked a few minutes ago. they are saying they are not going to challenge that generic drug and the competitive pricing pressures remain in the diabetes business. that negative news outweighing all the other positive news we heard from the company. julie: thank you so much, taylor riggs. mark: coming up, botc, can european stock pickers take on
♪ time for the global battle of the charts, where we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. you can access these charts on the bloomberg by running the function at the bottom of the screen. >> i wanted to have a chart that asws you the difference, or it were, the conflict between the macro and micro in europe this week. it is a big week for central banks and european earnings. this chart shows the correlation between stocks in the euro stoxx 50. if it is high, it means everything is moving at the same time and if it is low it is
stocks moving on stock specific news. this green area is the lowest quarter ration -- kohler it -- correlation since -- you can test the might of stock pickers to see if they can see what will win and what will lose this week, whereas before it was all about macro and mario draghi. you can access this chart on g #btv 112. mark: julie, what have you got? julie: i like the title of her chart. that would buy me if i were the judge. it is also interesting because it is earnings time. another thing to look at is the saying stocks. the exception of netflix, we have not heard from the rest of big cap technology. we are looking at the merrill lynch saying index versus the index versus the s&p 500.
that group up 40% to about a 15% gain in the s&p 500. the ratio of the two is on the bottom so you can see whether the fangs are rising relative to the s&p. lately we have seen a little downtick going into earnings. facebook reports wednesday, amazon and google reporting this thursday so we will see how that affects the direction. if you look at the overall information technology group in the s&p, analysts are projecting 10% growth in shares per quarter and is expected to accelerate in coming quarters so we will have to keep checking this chart. have such an enormous influence on the overall market. bite out of i think outperformance would be a great song title.
given we are all closet fleetwood mac fans -- julie: not so closet. mark: we are out there, completely out there. wins by the smallest margin, but i love both of your charts. breaking news, president trump making comments on nafta. he says we will have to do a whole new deal if talks fall apart. comments from the president on nafta. he says we will have to do a new deal if talks do not turn out. coming up, house budget will talk taxrman reform and more at 1:30 new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪
julie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york -- shery: from bloomberg world headquarters, here are the top stories. the feud between donald trump and bob corker is turning for the worse. they are raising concerns of the .op path to a tax overhaul investors in the u.s. showing optimism over strong third-quarter warnings but what does the road ahead hold? officer atperating goldman sachs says he sees things operating globally. for the forecast shipment of the iphone x, supply is said to be half of the initial estimate. .bigail doolittle joining us we are halfway t t