tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg November 12, 2017 11:00pm-12:00am EST
♪ yousef: populist presidents meet, donald trump and rodrigo duterte a get together. we are live in manila with the latest. hike, the philly fed president says a rate increase will take place before the end of this year. a boost for borrowing, snags a $15ne maker billion order from emirates. agenda.il on the
we are live at the abu dhabi petroleum exhibition. ♪ yousef: it is 8:00 a.m. in dubai. i am yousef gamal el-din. was rather lackluster start to the trading week. not a lot of earnings coming through to support these markets. the rest of asia not so. are across where we , akets in the asia-pacific fairly mixed session across the benchmarks. down .3%. also some movement across chinese markets, up 2.5%. region, somein the
changes if you will to the hang seng index composition, some movement in cathay pacific down. things to note as we make our way into the latter part of this asian trading session. a slow start to the trading week. let's get into the trauma that took place on day one of the dubai air show. what an upset. the press conference room was filled with people in anticipation of the deal with airbus. billions of dollars in additional odors. -- orders. what came through was boeing dreamliners, not just an upset for airbus, that further a350 program. tie down aable to
deal with azerbaijan airlines, so about $17 billion. we are looking ahead to other deals. to stages been a pull a comeback in the past. shopping, 175 single aisle jets, according to people familiar with the matter, and an option for 25. have beennd fly dubai intensifying their cooperation in relationship. we will speak with the ceo and president of emirates tim clark and a lot of the ceos and decision-makers throughout the day here at the dubai air show and keep touting the deals and see who comes out on top. the philadelphia fed president is the latest policymaker to all but confirm a rate hike for the end of the year. speaking in tokyo, he said a
move in 2017 his lightly inflationn and that is expected to assert itself due to the tight labor market. datat the latest cpi wednesday, and we will speak exclusively at 11:00 a.m. dubai time right here on bloomberg. the pound has weakened after the sunday times reported that 40 conservative members of parliament have agreed to signed a letter of no in u.k. prime minister theresa may. that is just eight shy of the number needed to trigger a leadership challenge. she is struggling to maintain her grip on power after the resignation of two cabinet members and as the eu raises the prospect of brexit talks failing to reach agreement by year end. officialsaudi arabian says the king his not planning
to abdicate in favor of his son. speculation that the crown prince will soon ascend to the throne and said application was unthinkable, especially since the 81-year-old king enjoys perfect health. a former cia director says president trump is showing he can be played by vladimir putin when he does not acknowledge russian interference in the 2016 election. john brennan said trump was giving putin a pass and that foreign leaders can appeal to the presidency go and try to play upon his insecurities. john brennan discard that as very, very worrisome from a national security standpoint. has plunged after the cancellation of a technology upgrade. aroundurrently trading $5,000, down from a record high of $7,900. some speculators are disappointed they won't get
additional coins that would have been created i the so-called split. now that has been called off. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. david: thank you for the update. let's head back to manila, where president trump on the last leg of his trip. we are joined on the ground by s, a littlele dancing, singing, but what else happened? the aseanders of nations including donald trump are have ring a number of bilaterals. aside trump met a full wishon's abe and malcolm turnbull. a couple of headlines from that
saying the discussions have focused on trade and north korea , what i have been saying all along since i first started this tour with donald trump. donald trump goes on to say perhaps we will not get huge headlines until he gets back to the united states. a statementill make on trade and north korea after the asia trip. tonight, donald trump will be having dinner with malcolm turnbull. he will also meet with rodrigo president of the philippines, and it should be a different dynamic than when clashed swords, if you will, with barack obama about a year or so ago. rodrigo duterte using some pretty harsh language to describe mr. obama because obama pushed the issue of human rights
as it relates to the big antidrug campaign and the extrajudicial murders that have taken place on the streets of manila. rodrigo duterte did not take kindly to that. supposedly we are hearing, trump does not plan to bring up human rights with rodrigo duterte, but if you saw the body language between the two gentlemen this morning, weather donald trump was just tired after so many days on the road, there was not a lot of them and vigor between the two gentlemen. we understand donald trump opportunity to resolve territorial disputes in the south china sea. tell us what that says about wider visions for the area. >> this was an off-the-cuff comment in hanoi before coming to manila, made mentioned to the counterparts that
he could be a mediator or arbitrator in the disputes among nations in the south china sea. whether that will be a real commitment to being involved in southeast asia and a repave it sia, that is a bit of wordstch given the harsh against china's policies in the south china sea. china would probably not welcomed donald trump as a mediator. we also heard from rodrigo duterte saying let's not talk about it. we run the risk of causing conflict on the south china sea. david: don't rock the boat in other words. thank you. guest intoour first the conversation out of for one ofthe cio switzerland's largest private banks. thank you for coming on the program. i appreciate you making time.
we have been talking about this there been anything that has come out in the last few days that you have traded on or expect to trade on from this? ignoreink if you politics in the last two years, you have done well, with the exception of brexit and the impact on sterling. fundamentals have driven asset prices. have driven asset prices, not so much politics. there are a couple of interesting things that comes from this trip, the tpp is proceeding without the u.s., and at the same time trying to push its agenda on rceo. this comes at a time when we have trade war and how these get result will have implications for growth going forward, both in the region and globally.
david: the economy is a more mature economy and less reliant on growth. et drag one a n growth. those that reduce the probability of a trade war and increase the probability that china will give him more to what the u.s. wants? >> i don't think we are starting a trade war. i think we have in in one sense 2011. when you look at trade in terms of exports plus imports as a percentage of gdp, that number has been falling for china since 2009, and i think it is just a reaction. if the u.s. is becoming more or becoming more insular, how do you respond if you are the biggest supplier? you need to reorganize your economy away from exports and
face a domestic demand audience. china has done that. china is more's self-sufficient today than it was 10 years ago. oneef: you are saying if would have ignored geopolitics, one would have done well. as, geopolitics may have short shelf life in some cases. that what point would you become concerned? at what point would you become concerned? >> one should be concerned about the direction we are headed. we are becoming less globalized and less cooperative. in my opinion, we are already inside a trade war. it makes people less cooperative and makes the more militant. there is always the risk that this escalates into a real war instead of just a cold war. fighting a cold war
in trade for the last 7-8 years. at what point does this escalate? i don't know come a good development. for the real economy from an efficiency and allocation perspective. at some point it might escalate. i don't know if this becomes a martial conflict the between countries or a more civil conflict within countries, as we have seen rearing its head in ofope, in brexit, the rise the far right in continental europe, but the risk is there. david: it certainly is. we want to get your thoughts on what that means for asset allocations. you are staying with us there. youhe meantime, let's get caught up with the latest business flash headlines. hooper has approved a big investment led by softbank worth $1 billion, followed by a tender
offer to buy another $9 billion from existing investors. includes governance changes and will see benchmark pausing its lawsuit against travis kalanick. benchmark will drop its complaint when investment and governance reforms kick in. buy 50s has agreed to billion dollars worth of 787 dreamliners, coming as a huge blow to airbus. today showsncement our confidence in the future of aviation in the region. these new planes we have just from 2022.l deliver david: you can catch our interview with tim clark here on bloomberg television. some of the top names of
the oil and gas world are meeting for a four-day conference and hobble dobby --abu dhabi. let's see what the expectations are going in here it tracy alloway joins us live from abu dhabi. what are we looking for to hear? >> i am at the abu dhabi international petroleum and exhibition conference. it is one of the biggest events calendar, buty this year it is garnering extra attention because it comes to weeks ahead of that all-important opec meeting where we are expecting them to announce a further extension of the production cut agreement. there will be plenty of state oil ministers here on the ground in abu dhabi, so we might get some clues as to the future production cuts, the length, and the all-important exits strategy. positioning at the moment is at an extremee --
to have record bullish bets on the price of brent, so there is high stakes to be playing for at this particular conference. entry, opec and market we have some company specific news. world'si has 6% of the oil reserves, and there are plenty of majors trying to grab a slice of those, in particular bp is here with 14 delegates, bigger than the delegation sent by total or shell. bp swapped $2.2 billion worth of shares for part of abu dhabi's onshore oil concession last year, so we are waiting to see if we get similar news this year. david: thank you. heard from the philly fed president hurley are, the latest
policymaker to all but confirmed a rate hike. of the release of the u.s. inflation data. let's listen in. >> i have still penciled in an , and three december increase for 2018 assuming inflation comes back, but i do emphasize pencil in it we will have to see how things evolve. historicter hitting highs last week on the back of solid earnings, u.s. equity sold off. posted its first weekly loss in two months. there we go. is as the senate revealed its proposal would delay cuts to the corporate rate until 2019. there will be plenty for markets to digest this coming week, in particular when janet yellen, mario draghi, mark carney, and governor kuroda to speak at the policy panel tomorrow.
of central banks, let's get more on the story from the -- lots to look forward to this week in terms of central bank speakers and where we go when it comes to monetary policy, but when you look at the december rate hike and probability 92%, should we look at that divorced of the inflation read, meaning they will hike no matter what? >> i think they will hike no matter what hear it i think the december rate hike is a given. more interesting is what they will do next year. 11%,arket is pricing in a 12% chance of three rate hikes. we are of the few that we will get all three. -- view that we will get all three. there is the wrist the market is not prepared for that and the bond market might sell off. there is a further risk.
we have done some proprietary research and believe there is a chance, not our central scenario, but eight tale scenario that one has to prepare for, that raising interest rates raises inflation. david: help us understand how that happens. angles, there are two one from the microeconomic angle. if you are cutting rates, you are cheapening fixed capital formation, cheapening the price of capital and the price of labor. at the microeconomic level at least you are creating excess capacity that leads to inflation. i am not sure if this is an impact that holds for the whole range of numbers for interest it does holdthink if interest rates are significantly lower than the roa of the entire economy.
that is the micro economic angle. angle,e macroeconomic the st. louis fed has an interesting paper they published in the middle of last year -- this year, where they investigate the impacts. that supports empirical data that interest rates and inflation are in fact positively correlated. i will put aside the theoretical argument around whether low employment pushes up that linkor whether is still in tact. talk to me about your asset allocations. what are you telling clients about adding or reducing exposure in light of the backdrop you just laid out or us? >> given how uncertain everything is about duration, the direction of interest rates, i think it is prudent not to have any exposure long or short, but to prepare for the
possibility that rates and inflation rise in step. that is one thing. the other thing is that if you are in very illiquid markets -- , you are at the mercy of capital flows and sentiment. sometimes you want to hide in less accessible markets, something we have done on and ,ff and are doing increasingly going to the structured credit market. it sounds dangerous. it isn't because of what happened in 2008. been stressed tested in a real live situation and survive can become a lot stronger. i think that market, like the mortgage-backed security markets , and certain new markets like for example agency mezzanine get a where one can
return that is hopefully more insulated from the sentiment and capital flows in the market. we have to leave it there, but please come on again. andainly very interesting unorthodox suggestions there. yousef: let's go over some of the market moves we have seen in the middle eastern equities. we have the higher geopolitical risks that saw a major selloff across gulf indices. we now have the data that proves that there was significantly more government funds lying into this market and helping to support it. that is why we are seeing positive patches. that was again the case and sunday trade. some downside in the kuwait index and other regional ones. the other rebound was in dubai.
let's widen out the conversation. i want to show you some of the chats we have had, one with the ceo of the brazilian aircraft maker. they are bullish on hiring more people. take a listen. >> the middle east is a very big region for us. roughly 350 aircraft in our space in this region of the next 20 years, so we are very focused here, not only from commercial aviation, but executive aviation and defense. the company described the upcoming year as a transition year, quite a few challenges. what kind of cost savings are you looking at to boost the margins of little bit? year is the entry into
service of the e2 in norway and april, so we are on time and on schedule and on budget for the e 2. it is typical for any oem to have a transition. guidance to the market in the last 10 days on the impact that will have on our results next year, so there is a slight dip. as we go forward, when you talk about what we're doing on the bottom line to improve margins, we are focused on an embraer passion for excellent's. ,hat's not just cost-cutting but every facet of the organization to improve efficiency and get those markets in the near term to midterm to high single low double digits. yousef: we have seen and interesting move from airbus in terms of getting involved with
the bombardier c series. >> this is another move to exit ownership of the c series. i guess the move by airbus is an engagement. they have recently said it is not a marriage yet. it will have to go through antitrust. so they will go through that process over the next 6-12 months. it puts a spotlight on that 100-150 seat segment. of thatbe a beneficiary as more and more care lines get the concept, rightsizing, return on invested capital. now that the antitrust process has started, airbus can't get involved until that is approved sometime later next year. until then, we continue to raise the profile of the rightsizing concept ourselves. yousef: it does make the market
for the e2 more challenging. is it make sense to team up with boeing? >> i think it makes the market for the e2 better than what it was before hand. we now have airbus raising the profile of the concept with their customer base around the world. enjoys a customer base of 100 jet operators in 60 countries. whens's marketing team they start to market towards the end of next year here, they will raise that concept of operating tool for leads their customer base. to that end, i'm hiring more sales and marketing people around the world right now because we expect more activity in our space over the next few months. yousef: you put in a complaint subsidies.s where are you at on that? brazilre supporting the
government at the wto. we are focused on that. to move by bombardier offload equity ownership to airbus and produce the aircraft in north america, that does not take away one iota that historical subsidies were taken by bombardier from the government to keep the program alive. that is an empirical fact, and embraer and the government are focused on fleshing that out. yousef: this is about competitive pressure, a direct threat to market share, and they are trying to carve a story around that. i'm looking at some analysts responses before this interview, but goldman sachs points out that this is just market faces structural headwinds. that is .1. .2's regional jet the man inconsistent with pricing. a strong order outlook on those jets.
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and a vast proportion of the world's maritime trade passes through. a verysident said he is good mediator and arbitrator and would be happy to help. the philadelphia fed president is the latest policymaker to hint at a rate hike before the end of the year. likely a move in 2017 is -- lightly penciled in and that inflation is expected to assert itself due to the tight labor market. we get the latest cpi data wednesday and will be speaking exclusively to him at 11:00 a.m. to buy time, 7:00 a.m. london time, right here on bloomberg. the pound has weakened after the sunday times reported that 40 conservative members of parliament have agreed to signed a letter of no confidence in u.k. prime minister theresa may. that is just eight shy of the number needed to trigger a leadership challenge. to maintaingling
her grip on power after the resignation of two cabinet members, calls to sack boris johnson, and as eu raises the prospect of brexit talks failing to reach a breakthrough by year end. a senior saudi arabian officials said king salman is not planning officialte here it the dismissed mounting speculation that crown sprint muhammad belts throne.ll listen to the he said application was unthinkable, especially since the 81 your old king enjoys perfect health. after thehas plunged cancellation of a technology upgrade. it is trading at just over $6,000, down from a record high of almost $7,900 on wednesday. some speculators are disappointed they won't get additional coins that would've been created by a so-called split that has now been called off. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
get you over to sophie with a check of your markets. desley humphrey take a look at the board. asian stocks looking next. that risk off mood continues. need new reasons to buy after a solid earnings season. inflation and china retail sales on the radar. to have the rupee losing tense of a percent ahead of that. pound is under pressure, leading losses in the g10 space. 1146.out the pound has fallen by the most in a week. it does look murky given the outlook does not offer good monetary news to offset this drag. inflation, retail sales
sent, market labor due out this week as well. movers on the hang seng, trading around a decade high. aac tech trading at high levels. .nergy is the biggest laggard cathay pacific is to be removed from the hang seng index on december 4. take a look at country gardens. itstock jumped 11% on upcoming inclusion to the hang seng, and other chinese developers are tracking that move higher. azer as ipot for r fever is back with the bank. in india, reliance communications tumble to the lowest level on record after failing to pay interest on its rupee bonds.
yousef: thanks. story, we have the oil and gas conference underway in abu dhabi. tracy alloway is standing by with a special guest. >> that's right. i'm here with the ceo of mom bought a petroleum. story.n interesting .hey just completed this merger i have to ask the big question. we know you are reviewing the assets as a result of that merge and -- merger. when might we hear the outcome of that review? >> last year, the government announced the merger at that time. a fullymerger created integrated oil and gas business.
very active in the upstream and downstream. our focus is the you creation and creating synergies within the portfolio companies. we are big players globally. you have a better idea of the kind of is this is or sectors you want to focus on in the future? we have done an extensive assessment of our art folio. it is a work in progress. we have identified sectors that are more attractive. maybe you heard about the latest .ews last summer we also announced a big joint venture with total in texas.
so we are very keen to remain relevant and a major player in the space. tracy: when i talked to outsiders, it feels like the company is going from a business model that was investor/operator . is that the right way to think about it? , we are inala have a veryus we strong capability when it comes to the oil and gas industry. we have her own technologies, capabilities. we are also active in the upstream side. we are an investor with her strong operations and technology capabilities. tracy: if you look at the businesses you have mentioned.
you start to look like an integrated oil company. is that what you want to be? >> this is the first time abu dhabi is creating an integrated oil and gas business under one umbrella. we are very relevant when it comes to the upstream side. how production is almost 500 million barrels of oil a day -- 500,000 arrows of oil a day. we are also active in the midstream. in the downstream, refining almost 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. with chem, if you combined mubadala's portfolio, we are one of the leading producers of ethylene. portfolio big scale and we are satisfied with the performance on the operational
side and financial side. tracy: your boss told us last year that energy deals are more attractive given the slump in oil prices. brent was $48 then. are there still attractive investments to be made? >> in the long-term, yes. this industry is a cyclic industry. is ofment in oil and gas the long-term view. the current oil prices very good for the upstream side comparing to a few years back. he requires strong investment to become resilient and efficient. thate proud in mubadala our portfolio of companies have created the right environment to survive within the oil price going forward. very briefly, where do you see the oil price next year? but cannot tell for sure, we see a balance between supply
and demand. the agreement between opec and non-opec producers is also creating a good momentum for the industry. in the long-term, there is very good news that we sometimes forget, the demand is exceeding our expectations. initially we thought 1.4 million would be additional demand. it is north of 1.6 million, and the outlook for demand going for it looks very bullish. mubadala the ceo of petroleum and chemical talking about a healthy outlook, still questions around supply. i expect we will hear more about that. yousef: excellent reporting. thank you. about supersonic flights. quite a few companies in this space. , and we are now
joined by the ceo himself. thank you for coming back on the show. you said youspoke, were working hard to get partners on board and looking for new customers and support for what is an ambitious and innovative program. what deals have you sign? at the paris air show, we announced we have 76 preorders for our aircraft. yousef: we are ahead of plans. what about this time around? we you make some announcements? >> we will be talking about launching the process for our factory for the airliner, as well as announcing key hires, as well as interfacing with public policy globally. yousef: have you been able to tie anything down with the bigger airlines?
there is tremendous interest. i yousef: don't have anything i can announced today. you have started discussions? >> we are talking with over 20 airlines globally. are of the best airlines based here. we are ideally positioned to build a supersonic up connecting asia and the middle east. yousef: what are their main concerns? that the technology is not refined, or is it the cost or the shift, the maintenance, what is it? is not interest. passengers want to get there faster. planesirlines are flying that look the same, so there is tremendous interest in something different and compelling that will increase the rate of travel because you make the world more accessible. yousef: what? about issues from a regulatory perspective alreadyike noise is
sensitive in some markets like the u.k. for instance. >> people are concerned about aircraft noise. concord was glad because it got a bad rap. today we can do a lot better. it is quite enough to land in london at night. yousef: what about funding and making sure you continue according to plan? any current strategy to raise additional funds? through firsted light come on our test program. one of the things we are doing in the middle east is talking about opportunities for the next steps. as we go into production, that is capital intensive and there is a lot of production to back that. yousef: private placements, bond issuance? >> there are different kinds of capital to come together to fund something very complex. yousef: how much would you like to have in your war chest? >> there is no such thing as too
much money. yousef: $100 million? >> i would take that. yousef: how much are you aiming for really? >> in the short-term, we are fully funded. it is about setting the stage for the next steps, that factory, building 100-200 airliners the year. yousef: what? about the issues with the faa phenomenaletting support from the faa and european regulators. we just hired the former head of environment energy from the faa and we are getting fantastic support in washington, d.c. repeals a bill to wrist the speed limit in the u.s., which would be great for supersonic. yousef: when we look at new products from airbus and others as well and boeing included, the testing phase and refinement phase is painful and difficult.
what are you seeing in your testing at the moment? what convinces you you will not face the common bugs that take time and money to fix? >> this is hard. this is not easy. this is something you do because it is important for the world, to make the planet more accessible. is possible today is all the key technology for the airplane, the fluid dynamics simulations, the materials, the engines and these are all flying today on other aircraft. there is no scientific breakthrough, just engineering. yousef: what is your priority market, the uae, saudi? i think there is interest everywhere. i don't think it is one country or one hub. go first,hoose one to but there is interest everywhere. there is nobody who does not
then strop will mark complains when the investment and governance reforms kick in. j.p. morgan says china is poised for a surge in m&a activity. deal making said to pick up, particularly in aviation. president xiter jinping promise china would take big strides in reform in the coming years and that foreign companies could expect improved access to china. emirates has agreed to buy $15 billion worth of boeing dreamliners, coming to a blow to airbus, which had been planning to announce its own deal. speaksannouncement today to our confidence in the future of aviation in the uae and region. these new planes we have just ordered will deliver from 2022.
having strategic investors helps too. >> there's curiosity why you chose not to list in the u.s. on yse?nasdaq or n. >> while we are big in the u.s., not a lot of people know we are a pretty large band in china. we broke records in all categories on singles' day. we are still number one on jd.com. because of that, we thought it is a great opportunity to be in hong kong and be the first global tech company to list in hong kong. ofefully in next couple months to get on the hong kong-shenzhen connect as well. >> i'm curious about the smartphone you are selling. accessories for desktop, laptop, but now you're coming out with a smart phone.
what can you offer others with a smart phone that apple, samsung, or others can't? focus on thep we 2.2 billion gamers out there. we have built this massive ecosystem around the gamer. moving to the mobile sector allows us to extend that ecosystem. pc andwell known in the console sector, and now extending to the mobile sector allows us to address the 2.2 billion gamers out there in multiple platforms. we think this is a great opportunity to do that. since the launch, the phone has done very well. it has trended on social media. there has been so much excitement about the first phone and the reviews are stellar. we just focus on the gamer. it has done well on us, and we hope to continue to do that. market, more of a niche
is the edge towards gamers and not looking at rivals like apple and samsung? >> if you call the biggest segment of entertainment, gaming, and niche, it is a 100 billion dollar industry, two .2 billion gamers out there. we built the phone for all of that. it is a gamer phone. of rozehat was the ceo r. let's run through some of the key themes for traders for gulf markets in the wider region. we had earnings from emaar properties, the dubai-based real at 5.5 9ant, earnings billion dirhams ahead of the estimate. the firm is saying it has more
than 24 thousand new developments under construction and is in a position to create strong cash flow over the coming years. , that isnsus prices 28.2 percent above the current price. some data related to saudi , soia, plunging last month keeping an eye out for cement firms. stocks have been under massive 29% and, down between 45% this year. david: right. absolutely. apart from earnings, some earnings across the asia-pacific. i'll chat you will not want to miss, we are speaking
exclusively to the philly fed president. he came out this morning and was speaking in tokyo, essentially saying they have lightly penciled in a rate hike in december. fed funds futures are virtually guaranteeing the fed will move. one of our earlier guest told us when you look at the fed outlook for the next hike, just look at that divorce from the inflation read that will be coming out midweek, and a guaranteed hike is what they are saying. apart from the conversation we will be having with heavyweights around the dubai air show. their?rbus staged comeback after the day one upset follow through with the major order for 170 single aisle jets?
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