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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  March 7, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ here are the top stories we are covering. markets rattled, gary cohn leaves the white house, what kind of policies and replacements is likely to push for. insights on the markets with the chief executive of the u.k. financial giant legal and general with their stock up on record earnings last year. the reform program of saudi will be under the microscope as he faces his first test abroad, he was in london and we are live from downing street. european equities today have rebounded, they fell earlier on the news gary cohn was leaving
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but have rebounded with italy, ftse, up by 1.4%, what election? these currencies are moving against the dollar and the euro has about -- barely changed. sterling has barely changed with brexit happenings today. house prices in the u.k., the slowdown continues as prices growing at the slowest rate in four years with the annual rate of change in the three months through february at 120%, the least since march of -- values rose. cooled in the last year with london a particular weak. consumers facing a squeeze on their incomes after brexit. a report from nationwide building society last week showing that brexit and the weaker economic outlook are reinforcing the slowdown in
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2018. let's move on, some investors concerned the most popular trend following commodities trading, ctas not able to handle son declines and sudden volatility -- sudden declines and sudden volatility spikes. it fell 6.4% in february. the worst month since 2001 according to a basket of the largest 20 managers. funds in the first three trading days of march and many programs were built on data from nine years of relative market calm. that is breaking down. seng, benchmark in hong kong fell 1% today, buffeted by
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concerns over a possible trade war. -- a rebound yesterday and a decline of 2.2% on monday and the last time measures had back-to-back moves up over 2% was in january of 2016 and the risk of a global trade conflict is coinciding with the annual npc. a gauge of 50 day volatility of the hang seng has climbed to its highest level since april of 2016. watching china and hong kong. julie, how is it looking in the u.s.? in thea similar pattern markets, a little bit of a rebound or a parent of declines in major averages with the nasdaq into the green with semi conductors strong on a relative basis with the philadelphia semiconductor index trading at a record. talk is about gary cohn and trade.
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the most recent trade deficit numbers today came out, the gap up 5% to $56.6 billion in january, a widening more than forecast, the biggest trade deficit going back to 2008. overall trade deficit last year was $566 billion. we await news on who could requires gary cohn. peter navarro says he is not on the long list of candidates to replace gary cohn. he is one of the more nationalist or protectionist candidates that had been talked about. interesting that he made the comment to bloomberg television. steel and aluminum stocks, strength as gary cohn's departure is seen as cementing the idea the president will go ahead with the tariffs. alco and century
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aluminum company rise. retail is weak today, especially the dollar stores, discount retailers, dollar tree third quarter's missing estimate, first court forecast missing estimates and comparable sales trailing. onlysts saying buy weakness, guggenheim says that the earnings per share forecast missed but it reflects a greater than expected tax reform reinvestment that could eventually be positive for the business. not so positive for the shares today. tok: the ecb is expected hold interest rates steady tomorrow and markets are watching the decision for clues about the wind down in qe or potential rate hikes, signals of equity strategist, fund managers. let's bring in stephen macklow-smith at jpmorgan asset management. tomorrowwas a surprise
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, where might that surprise come from? >> not expecting a surprise. people may be looking for some indication on how they won the qe program -- wind down the qe program and how long rates will stay low. people will be looking through the text for words and phrases. mark: the euro has come down since last month. our european companies weathering the euro -- our european companies weathering the euro storm? >> very for desperate if you companies export -- very few companies -- there is a translation factor on earnings, a little bit concerned about that. fourth quarter earning season did not lead to net earnings upgrades in europe, suggesting currency strength has held or
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tampa the enthusiasm of corporate management a little bit. overall, as long as the exchange rate depreciated steadily, it is not that much of a concern for most european companies. exchange rate appreciation, it inflation, the ecb says they will be sensitive to that the vonnie: what is your prognostication for the european economy and the ecb? >> we think the european economy grow slightly above trend. the pace of growth may accelerate within the first half of this year. we do not see any reason to expect there will be anything sinister about the deceleration. building and that may come back a little bit. the building blocks of the economy from a government expenditure point of view, modestly positive and consumption looks positive and
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unemployment is going down. real incomes are rising and is rising and corporate confidence is good. as long as the growth rate in the rest of the world is strong there will be an export to a win to european growth. tailwind to european growth. vonnie: is there a dichotomy between northern europe and southern europe? what about britain? can it be considered part of that universe anymore? >> absolutely, the european union remains the u.k. single largest trading partner. from one point of view, since the euro referendum, nothing has changed. the u.k. is part of the european union with all of the trading privileges. it benefits from a depreciation of selling against the euro which has made it more competitive. the distance in between northern and southern europe, -- distinction between northern and
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italy, therope, and growth rate is accelerated but nothing you would call mind-boggling or nothing to really stand out against the crowd. in spain, the rate of growth since they carried out the reforms has been solid. growth is broadly based across the board. the building blocks look in place. mark: let's talk trade, a story during our trade -- show, european stock investors trading in a trade war. deskst brexit down into breaks it down into steel and aluminum and says it is not that big of an impact if these tariffs go ahead, autos will be affected at the hedge in producing cars in the united states. are you considering these industries given the onset of a potential trade war and all
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their -- are there industries that could be shielded from a trade war such as chemicals, health care, telephones, utilities? >> we are not second guessing the outcome of any positioning by politicians. , we are not clear they will be imposed or the timescale. not sure retaliatory measures that will be taken. probably speaking, at the moment it is more important that economic growth is exhilarating because the earnings dynamic, a lot of the best earnings growth is in the financial and cyclical area of the market. if growth decelerates, that may change a little bit. another issue which the market will face at some point, a lot of the momentum trades have driven performance for the last 18 months is by weakening of the dollar.
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i am quite interested in what will happen to the dollar over the year because of it weakens, higher inflation expected. thehere is a turn in dollar, you may see portfolio managers repositioning. sensitive to the threat in the direction of the dollar and it is not our single largest active position. mark: stephen macklow-smith, head of european equities strategy at jpmorgan asset management. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news with courtney donohoe. isthey trump administration setting its sights on chinese imports and investment in the u.s. down on boatslamp to punish beijing for theft of intellectual product that's property and penalties may include tariffs. south korea's president wants to lower expectations for next month's summit with north korea.
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he says it is just a start and cannot be yet optimistic with the south korean envoy who met with kim jong-un -- officials say they will respond to evidence and not rumors in a mysterious illness of a former russian spy and his daughter. they were found on a public bench and speculation russia is involved. a secretary says "we need to keep cool heads." the man was convicted of spying for the u.k. but later released. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: coming up, president trump's topic desktop economic topsor makes an exit -- economic adviser makes an exit, what is next for the white house and global economy.
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mark: live from london, i am mark barton with european close 15 minutes away. vonnie: from new york i am vonnie quinn. gary cohn's departure from the white house is raising questions about their economic team as the press secretary announced the president is on track to find the tariff plan by the end of the week. we are joined by our senior white house correspondent. reaction and washington, d.c. following the departure, as major a deal as other high-profile departures in recent days? >> a very big deal because gary
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cohn was part of what was considered a moderating influence on the president. call it the globalist wing or moderating wing but he was a counterpoint to the peter navarro and wilbur ross and stephen miller block that has emboldened with the vacuum that is expected to come in the coming weeks. butial reaction market wise folks are waiting for two things, to see what the tariff plan is and if it rolls out come on up -- tomorrow or friday. and to find out who will replace gary cohn. his departure on the one hand has been long-awaited. after the charlottesville controversy, we thought he would leave and then the most recent controversy involving between the fire and fury and the rob porter controversy, we thought gary cohn would leave but now it is happening.
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people have had time to prepare. everybody thought he may not leave. it is now a turning point. in the tariffs in the last 24 hours with wilbur ross saying there may be carveout or country exemptions. we have word from the energy secretary who is in houston, he says he is not sure donald trump has made up his mind on tariffs. >> that is a really important thing to point out because rick perry is not speaking on his own or making it up. the remarks are calculated and vetted. raising questions about the implications of pipelines. one of gary cohn's last official acts was that he was scrambling to put together a meeting of end-user executives, be it on a
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manufacturers -- auto manufacturers, oil sector, to come to a meeting with the president which is supposed to happen tomorrow. basically trying to educate the president about implications that may be less obvious if he went forward with a 24 hours -- for percent, 10% plan as proposed originally. -- the president may announce a plan before the meeting. there are a lot of last-minute scrambling's between gary cohn's to move, the pressure from the hill, and the pressure trump ceos,hat -- pressure from there is a real push on the foreign policy front, national security adviser, and many of the diplomatic channels from allies to get the president to
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scrap his plan and retool with a greater emphasis on china and many more relaxations when it comes to the eu and key western partners. vonnie: a threat of a trade war but not sure what the president will do this week regarding tariffs. a revolving door white house. the kellyanne conway saga. the robert mueller investigation it gets more interesting. a saudi arabian at the white house today. what happens to foreign holiday front given the huge does foreign policy front given the --e foreign policy nude given the huge foreign policy move? get the u.s. into talks with a commitment to possible denuclearization in now -- north korea and russia, sanctions front, and elections front.
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and you happy middle east politics coming to a head between netanyahu's visit and gulf leaders. a lot going on. very little room for chaos on the domestic side. vonnie: thank you to our senior white house correspondent. vonnie: coming up -- mark: still ahead, the saudi crown prince arrives in london for a three-day visit with u.k. leadership, the latest on the visit is next. ♪
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♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i am mark barton with the european close roughly seven minutes away. theresa may has rolled out the
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red carpet for mohammed bin salman who has just arrived on a three-day visit to london, theresa may will raise concerns in private about the war in yemen with the u.k. foreign secretary says that is not enough. >> they are important friends but friends should speak the truth to each other and we should be speaking the truth in relation to yemen, and also need to see this, all new leaders of saudi arabia are reformers we are told and we should be pleased that in the future women will be able to drive in saudi arabia as they are in the rest of the world. other things need to be considered, what about the saudi arabian funding of jihadi groups in syria? isk: joining us for more anne-marie. can mohammed bin salman put those controversies in yemen and cutter and lebanon to one side
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and proved to be a reliable partner for the u.k.? >> good afternoon. he will try as he sits down with theresa may. this is so much of a business trip as the saudi crown prince mohammed bin salman looks to his vision of 2030 to diversify beyond oil and expand the economy. they are looking to try to bring more foreign investors into the 4% ofmarket, just foreigners invest in the local saudi stock exchange. he is trying to get support ahead of the ipo of their crown jewel. there are protesters outside the gates that are upset with his vision in london. throughout london, from heathrow yesterday, the entire way in was billboards about the prince. and they are
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getting a public relations agenda that saudi arabia is open for business relations and political ties but interesting to see how theresa may draws the line between what citizens are protesting and saying the government is too oppressive and she wants the ipo of aramco to come. and to continue the business and trade deals, especially in the arms sector. mark: the narrative, it is explaining the narrative to a .on-saudi audience explaining what he is doing to the economy and how he is trying to open it up and improve women's rights. what job is he doing on that front? year, women will be allowed to drive in saudi arabia and women and men can now go to football matches together, soccer matches for you in the u.s. vonnie. cinemas are opening in saudi arabia. in terms of the youth, many see
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him as a leader and he is not tied as much to the elite. we had a huge purge in saudi arabia. many say he is opening up the kingdom. he is going to london and the west and new york. he is going to silicon valley and industry that's interested in the tech industry. -- interested in the tech injury -- industry. mark: outside downing street for the visit of mohammed bin salman . look at european markets into the close, a bounce back with stocks rising after falling earlier in the session. ♪ mom you called?
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it's a drone! i know. find your phone easily with the xfinity voice remote. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. ♪ mark: from our european headquarters in london, i am mark barton. stocks finishing higher, opening lower but finished up for the
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third consecutive day, the best run since mid february. only concerns are the resignation of gary cohn, the chief economic advisor, white house economic adviser with investors mulling the implications of stronger influence for protectionist in the trump administration. stocks rising across the region. go is the function -- wm go is the function for that chart. -- arrow engine restructuring to efforts after the chief cutstive's initial cost overcame years of earnings declines. eliminating 800 management posts in an earlier slimming down of the unwieldy structure and one of the unit,4000 11.3% was the rise in
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rolls-royce shares on this wednesday. italy, it seems like a long time ago the election over the weekend with bonds back to levels before the election. investors betting the country will get through the disputes of its political leaders, a broad coalition is likely to emerge in the end. economic data is still positive, so says ubs wealth management division, maintaining a neutral stance on local assets after sunday's vote. few investors want to short italian bonds given the risk is too long-term, so says a firm. a different deal between the german and italian 10 year. ahead of the ecb meeting ,omorrow, a look at the euro little changed against the dollar, down a 10th of 1% an earlier it rose for a fifth day, the best run since february.
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economists say the ecb probably will not lose to the currency strength, when it meets tomorrow. something to look forward to. vonnie: isn't it fascinating was the italian election what we were looking forward to and that has changed. some assets doing quite well. in the united states, the dollar index is saying that staying soft, a time above 90 -- staying soft, the canadian dollar going slowly towards 1.30. the canadian economy had something to do with this but maybe more to the point is nafta renegotiations and talk of a trade war which may or may not be exempt from if there is a tariff on steel and aluminum. 1%, aoil down 9/10 of bigger build earlier in crude
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oil inventory. a barrel trading at $62.01 and a 10 year yield is crawling back up 2.88% today. dataalia, a little bit of disappointing overnight. steady.d interest rates the currency is on the decline, down 4/10 of 1% with south african rand down 1% of investors size up this new administration in south africa. commodities are having a day in the red. no need to explain why. mark: great stuff. more thanlng group 25% in etf, earnings before interest and taxes going past estimates, looking ahead to the year that is. nigel wilson with a smile on his face. good to see you.
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we used to do the earnings show, this is -- early show, this is a bit earlier here. >> more of the same this year, momentum, great to see the growth and pretext profit that pretax profit but we are confident about 2018 and beyond. we have tremendous growth opportunity in the u.k. and in the u.s. a great market in the u.s. for us. mark: an opportunity for a special dividend? that is up to my board. performance are ahead of my expectations at the moment. mark: can you give investors hope? >> everything we do is measured. slightly anal with our analytics and we execute well.
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you have to have great ideas. mark: a rising rate environment. how does that affect you? >> good for businesses like ours. we see rates rising pretty much everywhere. that is good for many different divisions. all of our divisions are firing well at the moment. havehe first time since i been there, i am happy about the performance of all the divisions. vonnie: well your pension business return more money at some point? i think we are very happy with the pension business on both sides of the atlantic. we have 350 pension clients in the united states. 3200 in total.
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the world is getting older and people need to save more for retirement and need more innovative products when they retire, these prints are good for our business and that is why we see such strong revenue growth and strong earnings growth everywhere. vonnie: how are you dealing with the challenges of what someone are calling -- some are calling overregulation? what about the amount of risk given that you have to comply? >> the regulator has been over done in certain areas. myself and the people in front of the treasury select committee last year, we have come to an amicable way forward, a balance between the regulator position and our position and i'm sure the regulators will recognize that certain areas need to change and the risk margin has been onerous in the u.k.. recognition it needs sorting out. high degree of confidence that regulators will not do
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everything we want but do the right thing for the business and the industry and our economy. mark: mortality reserves is a big thing, you release more money and save more, longevity is an interesting topic. people are not living as long in to medical advances to prolong lives. someone said life insurers are toast. longevity versus mortality reserves, discuss the impact on you. >> what we are finding is the trend has not been as pronounced , people are not living as long as our assumptions. in the u.k. and the united states, more pronounced in the united states than in the u.k. lots of reasons for that and we will not go through the mall. -- them all. proven reserves are becoming
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desperate it reserves are -- a steady progression of the releases of those reserves which we turn into cash. for shareholders. mark: that could have a bad year in a new 80 -- in annuity and , will you back book land the big fish? >> we look at all that books and we have done that back books and we have done two deals but much more customer experience -- business in the u.k. and in the united states. first before come backbooks. there is a steady progression of business, only 4% or 5% of all liability in this sector and in the u.s. it is 3.7 trillion and here it is 2 trillion liability
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over the next 20-30 years. a big amount of business coming our way in those times and the trend is in our favor. mark: come back, good to see you, nigel wilson. vonnie: let's get the first word news with courtney donohoe. more ammunition for president trump as he prepares to impose the tariffs on steel and aluminum. the usa deficit increase more than forecast in january for a session high and exports fell 1.3% from december, the most in more than one year. the european union is skeptical of the president's justification for the planned tariffs on steel and aluminum, the trade commissioner says she is seriously doubting the u.s. wants the terrorists for national security reasons and says if donald trump imposes the tariffs the eu will do the same on a wide range of u.s. goods. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu urged the world to take a harder line on iran,
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saying the nuclear deal with world powers has added to dominance ineasing the middle east as he spoke to the economic club of washington 's president david rubenstein. >> iran since the deal has been a tiger unleashed from its cage, emboldened and enriched it by the deal and instead of joining the community of nations, they are devouring nations one after the other. fighting off a crime corruption probe in israel. david rubenstein is the host of the david rubenstein show on bloomberg television. crown prince mohammed bin salman of saudi arabia met with queen elizabeth at buckingham palace and prime minister theresa may. -- global newsof 24 hours a day, powered by more
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than 2700 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: coming up, tech moves in on lending. is usingtartup artificial intelligence and machine learning to take on traditional lenders. ♪
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♪ mark: live from london, i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn in new york and this is the european close on bloomberg markets. a conference underway in new york, julia chatterley is back with a former google executive who is shaking up the lending industry. julia: a great stat, stolen from my next guest, 83% of americans
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have never defaulted and yet 40% to 50% only have access to what is fairly priced credit. guest,e gap is my next the ceo of upstart. huge opportunity, how does your business work with pricing credit and accessing people who want more money. >> a lot of us were former google executive's, the idea that a lot of improvements can be made into credit decision, who gets credit and on what terms? decadeseen a system for that has existed in the u.s. largely unchanged. a far higher percentage of americans are credit worthy if the systems could recognize it. we brought more data to the table and applied modern statistical techniques, machine learning, to get a much better assessment of risk related to a loan.
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julia: what criteria? >> we started looking at younger people who had been credit, not a lot of -- thin credit and they were uniformly considered guilty or risky and we said there is a lot of other information that may help you this view that -- dispute that. where do they work, where did they go to school? we look beyond the credit information and signals of their potential for the future, which is the essence of what we do. we wanted to understand the situation they are in, where of their credit score, how much are they looking to borrow relative to their income? lends ends into their situation in ways you can do it in an automated way. julia: how much of this is fully automated, get access to credit? loans,y, half of our
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rewarded instantly, the person is approved and can accept the loan without uploading of documents or talking to us on the phone. that is through automation and data science we can make sure we -- they are who they say they are and their credentials are correct. julia: you have said that he missed priced credit, the majority of credit is mispriced, i spoke to a cfo of the second-biggest lender, nonbank lender in the united states and they use traditional methods and he says the scientific approach you are talking about using is not backed up by results. >> if you are not a technology person, easy to say it is all invented and been done before. it is helpful to be coming from the outside with naïveté and saying, i think it could be done better but obvious that knowing more about a borrower is better. having a better sense of
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employment, stability of employment, what may happen to them in a recession, it is obvious to most people that there is more information than a fight goes for. -- fico score. julia: tech breaking into finance market -- model is superior than finances try to adopt technology. andou need a combination there are financial companies, goldman sachs, plenty of engineers and good technical talent. not as binary aztec versus finance. -- as text versus finance. -- tech versus finance. it will be interesting as these merge overtime. julia: the lower end for smaller players are struggling with the credit cycle shifting and a link when sees in the past
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are what they anticipate. do you expect greater consolidation, especially if there is the regulation -- de regulation. >> there were a rush of companies that brought lending online and made it more efficient and easier to get a loan. they have gnosis thinkable advantage -- they have no sustainable advantage. it is a cyclical industry and if you do not have a lasting advantage you can build on, you will have a hard time eventually. julia: what about amazon? if they areffect, talking about account information sharing with the big banks? are they a potential disruptor in this market? >> i i am amazed at what they he done. they have shown ambition and a willingness to take risk and
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speed of execution that is not president it and it seems -- ,recedented and it is obvious how you invest your money, where you keep your money, how you borrow will be a central business for amazon over time. julia: surprised by your optimism, you should be threatened? >> it is a big world and credit or lending will never be truly consolidated into a handful of players. we are the smaller guys and growing superfast. you do not get disrupted by a bigger company, even amazon, you get disrupted by a couple of people in the garage. as long as we execute, we will do well here -- do well. --ia: 80% getting crash for cast for credit card debt, where we are in the credit cycle, what do you see in terms of the data? >> credit card knowledge is in no shortagehic --
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of opportunity to help these people in a transitional point, our average is 20 years old, 90% are college educated and student and credit card debt -- they will be wealth creators in the future. we are recognizing them before the rest of the world. getting them on board as customers. we see this as a transitional opportunity to move into a place where they do not have credit card debt and are positive in terms of the balance sheet. most of our borrowers borrow from us once. we like the fact that we are moving them to the next stage of their life. julia: the antithesis of providing credit to someone when it carries on. thank you so much, the ceo of upstart, dave gerrard. chatterley, thank
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you. u.s. secretary, rick perry tells reporters the -- ans are ongoing ongoing conversation and not sure president trump has made up his mind. ♪
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♪ i am live from london, mark barton. vonnie: in new york, i am vonnie quinn. tariffs a topic in houston. joining us is our managing editor for energy and from london is in houston this week. comments rick perry made a few minutes ago that were controversial, saying that tariffs are not already into the president's intention. >> surprising comments to
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reporters in houston to thousands of oil industry executives in a conference in the city. he said president has not made up his mind on steel and aluminum tariffs. hinting there was an internal debate within the administration, perhaps a sign that the tariffs are not a done deal. houston opposition in from the oil and gas industry. vonnie: how do you listen to something peter navarro told us on bloomberg earlier. he is a copy columnist at the white house and desktop economists at the white house -- top economist at the white house , he said they would be good for the economy. >> with the steal and aluminum tariffs, modest in levels, we want to defend the industry's.
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the president said we cannot have a country without a steel and aluminum industry and i agree and the aluminum industry in particular will go away in a you years unless we take the action -- in a few years unless we take this action. vonnie: what does the rest of the world think? does the country need and aluminum tariffs for the industry to survive? >> many countries do not have an aluminum industry and they are doing fine. the comment about the economy from peter navarro is the opposite of what i hear in houston. the comments i hear from senior oil and gas executives is that the tariffs will be bad for the global economy and also for the u.s. oil and gas industry. i was talking to a top executive deepwater, of mexico these are the option -- offshore platforms that require, tons and
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tons of steel. us.aid it is bad or -- for us. take a look at where european markets ended the day, the low for the date was 11:00 p.m. local time and the stoxx 600 was down by roughly 6/10 of 1% on the back of concerns emanating from the departure of gary cohn from the white house. a rebound with investors shrugging that off with looking to the macroeconomic event tomorrow, the ecb meeting. we will be there and telling you all about it. ♪
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♪ >> i am mark crumpton with the first word news. more ammunition for president trump as he prepares to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum. the u.s. trade deficit increased more than forecast in january to a postrecession high.
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exports fell 1.3% from december, the most in more than one year. the head of the fda says a rate payment scheme has blocked access to cheaper versions of some expensive drugs in the u.s. the commissioner criticized pharmacy benefit managers that contract with health plans to administer drug coverage and has been pushing for ways to get lower-cost generic drugs to the market faster. the european union has rejected the u.k. bid to keep access to parts of the single market, particularly a bank. european council president criticized britain's efforts to game preferential economic treatment in any post-brexit free trade agreement with the eu. >> the positive approach does not change the simple fact that t we will be grafting apart.


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