tv Bloomberg Daybreak Americas Bloomberg August 14, 2018 7:00am-9:00am EDT
alix: turkey strikes back. president erdogan boycotts american electronics. manic monday turns to tuesday. elon musk says he has lined up legal advisers to take tesla rabbit as the board distances itself -- private as the board mutances itself from sk's tweets. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i am david westin. president erdogan speaking, don't buy iphones. that will fix the economic crisis in turkey. alix: if we knew that, we would have done that a long time ago. way, their local cell phone stop went up. alix: in the markets, it feels like relief rally underway. how far will it be sustained? euro-dollar is flat.
we got some solid data coming out of europe. note indication that trade war is having an effect on the hard data yet. points is the spread between twos and tens. the chinese data we got was worse than expected, and the market did not even flinch. david: we talked about it. when we woke up, i thought that would be the story. alix: everyone was expecting it, and china proved they were getting in on it. david: and turkey is more compelling. let's turn to emma chandra with first word news. good morning. have police in london arrested a man for what is being called a terrorist incident outside the houses of parliament. a car slammed into the barrier, injuring several veterans. none of the injuries appeared to be life-threatening. back in march 2017, a car plowed
through pedestrians and crashed outside of parliament. that driver killed five people. the british parliament is on recess. once again, president erdogan is sounding the find, saying the nation will stand strong against the dollar. the lira is taking a breather today after falling 30% in the last month. turkish retail accounts sold the dollar to take profits after the lira slide. helping democrats take control of the house in the midterms, adding $10 million on top of the $110 million investor has already committed. he is trying to get voters to the polls interested in the idea of impeaching president trump. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you.
time for bloombergs first take. we are joined by vincent cignarella, and gina martin adams bloomberg intelligence chief equity strategist. let's get our first point. this is erdogan speaking earlier. he says turkey will stand in the face of dollar with determination. the central banks come in and say no. stehe lira slide really mmed? vincent: it is a minor cost. it is all my fault. alix: you guys did it. vincent: holding the one week repo rate. he has raised rates about 150 basis points. markets are looking for about 750. he has done a little, nothing dramatic. there are some form of capital control, limiting the ability of fx trading. there is a long way to go for
turkey to get hold of their monetary policy. one thing is for him to get his hands out of it. that is what markets want to see. alix: we have two more speeches by him in the next few hours. we will look for any signal on that. is the relief rally going to hold? gina: it seems doubtful. usually what it takes is some massive move by the central bank. in this case, you have a president that is clearly intimately involved in central banking. this has been a strong case against turkey for more than the last week. underperformed compared to the emerging market index for the last year or so. this has been a long time, and it is accelerating amid more extensive weakness with the turkey and u.s. combative relationship that has evolved. this is a long-term downtrend that is difficult to see an end to until the central bank policy
shifts and gives us a little confidence in markets that something is going to change. david: capital controls, that is what people are talking about. if he is not going to change the interest rate, then what? vincent: i think he is going to have to do that. it is the worst of both worlds. the ideal situation would be to raise rates, rain inflation in. david: you said he is not going to do that. vincent: capital controls will be the only thing left to stem the try. intimate involvement with the central bank, i could not phrase it better. markets and investors are not going to have that confidence to be behind turkey. alix: plenty will not buy iphones. david: he has his son-in-law in charge. that will fix it. alix: can you imagine what it would be like your president again tweeted, if we had a twitter war between him and present from?
-- president trump? david: in europe, we have quadrian banks who have exposure on their -- cointreau banks -- four who have exposure on their balance sheet. is this going to spread to a larger financial crisis? gina: it is difficult to say until you know how much capital flight it is from the country. there has been a lot of price action over the last several days trying to price in expense risk in turkey. i think this is going further than europe in terms of massive currency volatility in mexico, south africa, argentina. all of the countries with high current account deficits and high external funding are experiencing pressure as well. this is an all-out flight from risk. it is difficult to say when this will stop.
you have to have some movement or action that he central bank or government that creates a cause. we have not had that. this is a massive downdraft in risk assets that is taking a pause. david: you had turkey come out and please say -- and say please raise interest rates. thatnt: argentina did yesterday. they just caught up to where markets were pricing at 45%. we have been very complacent with countries with high current account deficits for a long time and giving everyone a big pass thinking nothing was going to happen. now this is starting, and people are saying wait a minute, we need to price in where everyone else is and bring everything up to speed. it looks like contagion, but it is more of a repricing across markets to catch up to where we should be pricing risk in the first place. alix: what i love is italy and coming after the speculators and blaming them for all the selloff
in unicredit. it isvernment saying significant that an external event like turkey that has nothing to do with italy unleashes the effect that financial speculation easily targetbt as an easy positioning itself ahead of the next target. and unbelievable blowout in turkey. vincent: this is maybe the 41st government in italy after world war ii. this revolving door of policy continues to be amazing. i think we are months away from talking about another lira. the italian government is going to blow out their budget. they will come to an impasse with the ecb and eurozone. we will see how markets price in the results of the conflicts between the budgets of italy and germany, which is going to happen. david: moving on to our third
story, elon musk and tesla. elon musk decided to write a long blog post yesterday explaining what he has been doing and why. he said on august 2, i notified the tesla board that in my personal capacity i wanted to take tesla private at $450 per share. twitter because i thought it was the fair thing to do. i will continue to talk to investors and have engaged advisors to get a range of potential structures and options. david: that doesn't sound like he has the financing secure. he is going to talk to people about what he is going to do. gina: recognize that we are in a new era. not only do have economic policy by tweets, but we have financing by tweet as well. this is a new world. there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty here stemming from communication. this is coming out via tweet, nontraditional method of communication. it is not coming from banks or
the financial markets. that is creating tremendous uncertainty. i will say the tweets seem to be working to elevate the stock price. if you look at where the stoxx were when the tweets again, it has moved tire. be rewarded by shareholders for this communication. who knows where it goes? david: here is the chart that illustrates what you are saying. dramatic spike, then it comes back down, somewhat elevated from where it was. we see the personal capacity and the board giving message as well. you on a different guy from us. there seems to be a little distance growing from the board and mr. musk. vincent: there seems to be this little dissolution and of sorts --dissolution and up disillusionment of sorts.
just because you are private doesn't mean you don't have to answer to anybody. you still have lenders you are responsible to. you may not be in the public face, but you are in a private room somewhere getting something thrown at you if you don't do it right. alix: musk is not only trying to distance himself from the board, he is trying to distance himself from himself. that blog post, he says i don't need that much money anyway because it will all be equity. it is not going to be debt. it is going to be equity. i don't get it. vincent cignarella and gina martin adams, good to see you. you can see all the charts we just used and more. go to gtv . coming up, more on the rebound in turkish assets. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
emma: this is bloomberg avery. home depot is offering more evidence that the u.s. housing market is strong. they issued better than expected same-store sales for july 29. this was after disappointing results in the previous quarter. property owners tend to spend more on their homes went they believe values are rising to analysts at morgan stanley say the automaker can no longer afford to pay 15% quarterly dividends for ford. says the carmaker has enough cash and income to cover
the dividends. unemployment in the u.k. has felt to a 40 year low. europe's largest economy grew faster than expected. -- in germany grew 1.1 5 0.5% in the quarter. alix: thanks are feeling the heat because of their exposure to turkey. something has to be done about interest rates besides physical discipline. monetary tightening is the remedy. levine,us is alicia bank of new york portfolio of market strategy director. what is the contagion effect for european banks from where you sit? alicia: that is dissolution right now because what is causing the turkey crisis is the
fact that the central bank is not independent from the government. by any stretch of imagination, the central bank should be raising rates by 500 to 750 basis points. it is not. the risk to the european banking system is that, as we know bbva and unicredit and others have large stakes in turkish banks. they will not be able to collect on their loans in u.s. dollars. alix: we have a chart that shows the different types of loans the banks have. it raises the fundamental question for european banks, they were not getting any juice at home. european banks, but how much of this is overblown? alicia: i don't think this is overblown. this is the aftereffects of qe and global tightening. to know, investors went
emerging markets to find yields. because there was so much liquidity in the world, what we're finding with the withdrawal of liquidity is there is risk out there and over the sector. in there is risk. david: there is always risk when you go to emerging markets. that comes with the territory. the question i have is about concentration of risk. va,saw in the chart is bb that is 15% of their outstanding loans. is that a failure of regulation? alicia: the european market is very different from the american market. they were very different in their demands to clean up nonperforming loans and risk assets. in europe, it is a much slower process. it was not done. the entire european banking system has $2.5 trillion in
nonperforming loans on their asset sheets that have not been cleaned up. apart from whatever is going on with growth or lack of growth, that seems to be reason to be skeptical of european banks if you are exposed to that kind of risk. alicia: i think there is still risk in the system. we have not seen the full ramifications of the stronger dollar in emerging markets, how it is going to ricochet throughout capital markets and affect the banking system. we are not there yet. alix: something we have also seeing is the blowout between italy and german bund spread. 2013, butn highs of it is still a significant move. italian politicians came in and blamed turkey for that. they say it is significant that an external event like turkey
that has nothing to do with italy unleashes such an effect. speculation easily sees peripheral debt positioning itself ahead of the next development. this is the conversation we're having. not the good gdp data. alicia: there is politics, and then there is economics. economic policy is sometimes based on politics. this is reflecting the economic consequences of that policy choices. bad policy choices. when there is question of whether or not the country can pay back the debt, and you are the bank, you have risk. on top of that, you have the turkish debt problem and the italian sovereign debt problem. they are compounding each other. david:, to this is because of turkey and how much of this is because italy is saying we are going to blow our budget no matter what the eurozone thinks of it?
alicia: that is exactly the point. the turkish situation is piggybacking on an already vulnerable banking sector that is exposed to italian debt. i don't think we are done yet. in the end, the lira has fallen in half against the dollar in the last 12 months. all those loans that were written in dollars not have to pay back double. that is hard to do. alix: that is bifurcated europe. the data, germany coming in really strong. domestic demand was strong. investment was strong. it feels like the trade issues have not been reflected yet in the hard data. how do you play the other side of europe? alicia: the data was terrific coming out of germany. there is economics and politics. two weeks zero, we had jean-claude juncker have a meeting in the white house where the auto tariffs were put on
hold. that is the inflection point for me in germany and northern europe. the big risk for the german economy and german market was the auto sector, which takes up some much of the dax index. you cannot by the index without being exposed to european auto exporters. that was the inflection point for me. i think germany is a great place to go. i think northern europe is safe. i think france still has a question because some of the french banks are exposed to italian debt, and to turkish debt. the turkish debt situation is interesting because the problem is not so much on the sovereign side. bank ort is either corporate debt. david: the business community says they would like tighter monetary policy as well. imfia: the thought that the could come in and do a package and save the day, that will not
happen while there are u.s. sanctions against turkey. the only real solution is to raise rates. until that central bank does it, you are going to be stuck in a problem. nyid: alicia levine of the investment managers will the with us. silver lake says otherwise. we will look at the latest on tesla. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
david: elon musk yesterday tried to do some explaining. he issued a blog post in which he said he was acting in his private capacity and went to the board to try to take tesla private and thought he should tell everyone at the same time. we turn to our bloomberg columnist to try to do his own explaining, alex webb. it sounds like he did not have funding.
alex: that is the takeaway a lot of people are taking. saudi on a number of occasions and conversations with them, but saudi still has more questions for him. there is no funding. david: he tried to put it all off on the sovereign wealth fund he said they came to me and wanted to do it. it made it sound the devil made me do it. alex: he is time himself into such logical contortions in rhetoric or blog posts, much a -- might have done in such a bad reference. parity which adds to last week, we know some of the names who might be involved, but we don't have a question answered, where does the funding come from? david: he has said it is more likely to be an equity deal.
does that make it more likely to have people roll over there equity rather than to buy people out? that is a difficult point because he has indicated he does not want to acquire a majority of the state. he wants equity, which is going to avoid the that question. which investor wants to go private and have much less of a say? that is difficult. david: it is difficult. thank you, alex webb. lira selloff takes a break. there is a real possibility that turkey will impose capital controls. we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network
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and ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your internet. plus, get $300 back when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." relief rally underway. how hard is it really go? dow jones futures up and s&p futures up.
the dax had great gdp data. domestic consumption was good. the stoxx index does not going to wear. euro-dollar -- go anywhere. euro-dollar has revised up. the euro actually fell. yesterday was about the selloff in btp. someone from the government ecb should bee responsible for that selloff. crude is up despite the fact that libya is now pumping one million barrels a day. it is hard to get a read on this market when some fundamentals are being ignored. david: i don't fully understand it. you understand it better than i do. alix: i will blame it on a summer tuesday. david: time now for an update on what is making headlines outside the business world.
emma chandra is here with first word news. >> in london, police are treating a car crash outside the houses of parliament is a terrorist incident. it injured several pedestrians. police arrested the driver, a man in his late 20's. back in march 2017, a car plowed through pedestrians outside parliament and killed five people before the driver was shot dead. in italy, part of a raised highway has collapsed as the report comes out that 10 people have been killed. news agencies in italy believe the class was caused by structural weakness. the government of canada will try to prevent a flood of imports from overseas steelmakers trying to avoid u.s. tariffs. thatberg reported in june canada would consider tariffs. some fabricators have pushed back, saying those moves would negatively affect the canadian
economy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. thank you so much. mark mobius of mobius capital partners said capital controls could be coming. matt: they had taken -- measuresy have taken to prevent trade in the u.s. dollar. the next step would be complete trade control not allowing dollars to leave the country. that is a real possibility. is emadining us mostaque, capricorn fund managers co-cio, and z at that daoud. ziad is the effect of capital
controls in turkey? 10% inrobably less than terms of real capital controls. you might see something around the edges. full-scale capital controls like we see in other emerging markets could lead to a debt spiral for turkey. alix: what kind of downside do we still need to see in turkish assets if we don't see capital controls? ziad: the turkish bank is very creative given that they have policies against local borrowing. they will try to do everything they can sort of raising interest rates because that has a knock on effect for the economy. allies in the gulf states in china, trying to get swap lines set up to avoid capital controls or rate hikes. david: one of the things they need is foreign direct investment given the capital accounts and balance.
how are they getting that investment and to what extent are they putting it at risk? portfolio flow to finance the current account deficit has been the problem over the last few years. this is the issue with capital controls. an economy that is reliant on foreign financial influence to finance the current account deficit and to realize their foreign external debt. with capital controls, you wonder who would bring the money to turkey when they cannot get their money out. alix: a parallel in the last 72 hours has been the asian financial crisis. i want to bring a chart that shows what happened to the lira, what happened to growth, and what happened to inflation in 1994, 2001, and 2018. are we in for the kind of turmoil in the markets, the contraction in gdp, the inflation rally we saw in those years? ziad: we have not seen the
contraction in gdp. the current depreciation has not kicked into growth yet. we have not seen growth numbers just yet. growth is bound to slow. we have 40% depreciation in the currency that is likely to hurt an increase in interest rates is the beginning of 2017. that will hit growth. the government implement a huge fiscal stimulus last year. that is bound to fail. growth will fade this year. fade.und growth will fade this year. david: you mentioned a possible death spiral. are they in that already? if they don't go to the imf, you are running out of alternatives. emad: i think it is a series of
bad options. a lot of the currency crisis is obviously political. there has been a dramatic breakdown between the u.s. and turkey in terms of relationships. of building the art ladders for other people to climb down. there have not been a lot of ladders. be 72k there will deescalate. there are long-term -- some need to de-escalate. there are long-term issues. the current forecast for growth is heading down, probably heading towards zero rather than full-blown recession. i don't think it is excessive at the moment. alicia: i agree that the solution is actually political. turkey is not negotiating from a position of strength with the u.s. the solution is to return the american religious leader and
have the central bank raise rates. then you can stop the cycle because capital controls will create a death spiral. there are too many economic issues at play. policy has to come first. david: it sounds very simple, but the political solution may be the hardest one because you have two very determined rulers, neither one of them seem likely to take a turn. >> that is right. we have seenespite today, nothing has changed fundamentally in turkey. the standoff is still between the u.s. and turkey as it was friday. we have not seen any news in that respect. any resolution to the political standoff does not seem to be on the horizon really. alix: the question becomes the broader contagion. argentina come in
yesterday. they hiked. you can see the delineation between central banks like south africa, argentina, mexico that will hike versus turkey. what opportunities can we see? emad: that is exactly it. traditional five plus argentina. they want to 45% interest rates in the last few months alone. that is already a problem. people are looking to south africa. they have not really enacted the reforms. this new legislation is coming through on property. they have gone from 11.5% to 14 .5%. india is also a currency that is breaking 52 week lows. this is concerning with the overall dollar rally. a lot of these assets are just sold off to such an extreme degree that they are attractive.
in turkey, guarantee banks 50%-year bonds are yielding by bbva. in argentina, you are seeing things down 50%. in south africa, domestic stocks are attractive. as long as we don't get this massive acceleration to the downside. david: we have a question from a viewer. it is a question on a different kind of contagion. were capitalally controls in turkey come what would the effect be on emerging-market assets outside of turkey? would it affect other emerging markets? alicia: that is a very good question. emerging markets tend to be supremely sensitive to one another in terms of investor risk appetite. it is a question of shoot first and ask questions later. if turkey imposes capital controls, which we don't think
is the most optimal way to handle the situation, you will see a ricochet effect throughout global emerging markets. the risk appetite is gone along with the lack of liquidity from g4 central banks. your mechanism is a stronger u.s. dollar. that is a problem. alix: which country fundamentally and economically is more similar to turkey that really poses some risk of capital control threat? emad: we did this exercise. we scanned emerging markets looking for countries that look like turkey in the sense that they have large current account deficits and large external debt and high inflation and weak governance. we came up with a group of five, which includes turkey. this is turkey at the top, argentina, south africa, columbia, and mexico. within this fragile five, there is depreciation.
there is not high return for the risks that they are facing. the ones that look most like turkey with high risk and low return our south africa and columbia. david: do you agree with that fragile five, particularly with south africa? how much political risk is on top of that? >> the narrative has started forming. people have been waiting for the reforms to come through. if you have capital controls introduced, people say what is next? the market starts to push. on monday, we saw the south african rand push to 15.5. if you see any further acceleration, that is the weakest currency terms of narrative construction we see today. the central bank there will be more likely to hike then the turkish central bank. alix: capital controls aside,
turkey aside, is this a snapshot of what happens when central banks remove liquidity from the system? it will not take much in terms of real turmoil in the markets? alicia: the short answer is yes. in 2017, we had a weakening dollar despite the fact that the u.s. central bank was the only bank tightening. because the dollar was weaker, it allowed the rally in emerging markets continue, and so this year, where it looks like europe is slightly lower growth than expected, ecb slower than expected, the dollar has rally and ricochet through markets. banks leads to turmoil in emerging markets. it tends where the dollar is. the dollar is strengthening. the contagion mechanisms through stronger u.s. dollar.
cheetahs partners -- gtis p artners president and cio. this is bloomberg. ♪ now to your bloomberg business flash. billionaire investor carl ica prominent shareholder advisory firms have come out in favor of the deal. he has called it a travesty, saying cigna was overpaying. bain capital private equity has agreed to purchase esurer. a 72% premiumg over friday's closing price. falling.een bridgewater associates has maintained their position in gold. 5% intal fell more than
the second quarter. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thank you so much. we turn to wall street beats, covering three things on wall street. first up, goldman's european affair. goldman sachs is legal and financial trouble. the never ending lehman short. making millions when lehman went bust decades ago, but still does not have all of his profit. an inside look at the elite world of orting schools. -- boarding schools. david: joining us now is jason kelly, bloomberg's new york bureau chief. let's start with goldman sachs. childis this large prodigy that made a lot of money and lost it repeatedly. goldman got burned. jason: this is the most read
story over the last day on the bloomberg. this is the closest thing to click they. -- click bait. david: don't say that. we never do that. guy as you saya made a lot of money, went bankrupt before he was 30. the story starts when he came in on a yacht. interesting current is that goldman fired a banker who is now suing goldman because he said my boss made this relationship with this kind of sketchy guy, and i had to take the fall for it. david: this is a specific instance. it is kind of like icarus. sun.like close to the some of the characters you want to get into business with our a little questionable. jason: there are some complicated deals here.
one involves emirates airline. say that seeshould how she airline, the other airline, not emirates. there is some healing. david: big risk for big reward. alix: that is the environment. it reminds you that there are a lot of people that want to do business with goldman, and sometimes goldman should not do business with them. alix: could this really happen now with all of the controls? david: that is a good point. alix: our second story has to do with lehman brothers. we know he made a lot of money shorting shares. apparently, there is about 68,000 shares at goldman that he never covered, assuming they lehmane wiped out when went bankrupt. they are still there.
he is leaving $170,000 on the table. knows he made the mistake, so he is grumpy. he says he was trying to do this because i wanted my tax bill to be a little lower. i thought the shares were just going to be wiped out. goldman made a move at the end where they still hold the shares and cannot release them. alix: oh man. jason: shoot. david: it is hard to feel sorry for him. they canceled the shares when they went bankrupt. all those chairs were replaced with one shares. becauset return them they do not exist anymore. they don't exist. jason: part of their reasoning is that equity shareholders are the last to get paid in bankruptcy. the bankruptcy is still going on. they are still hanging on and
thinking maybe somebody is going to get paid. david: it may not be worth zero. the third story. let's talk about boarding schools. they went out for a bond issuance. it is a little peek into what is going on. this is how these boarding schools operate. full disclosure, i am chair of not a boarding school, riverdale country school. tuition is pretty high. alix: understatement. david: by the way, worth every penny. jason: here are the numbers right here. david: other boarding schools. jason: if whitney tilson got the money back, he could send one of his kids to boarding school for one year. these are incredibly fancy schools. they have unbelievable facilities, but part of what they sell, and you can speak to this, admission into good college. david: and wonderful faculty.
you get really good teachers. the thing that strikes me on this serving on a board, the distance. we talk about income disparity in wealth disparity. we talk about that, but the real disparity is education disparity. we have a lot of public schoolchildren in inner cities and rural situations that don't get anywhere close to this. , the when i was going up tuition was expensive. it was like a third of my parents income. it would be like 75% of mine. because there was an actual middle class in new york, there was a small middle-class in that school. david: one last point on this because i am exposed to some of this. the incredible phenomenon is you can race that tuition as much as you want, and demand will exceed. your applications go up as you go up intuition.
as a matter of business, it is hard. alix: you can cap the bond market and make extra money. david: you are pretty good to pay it back. alix: we are just talking about ourselves. david: jason kelly, thank you so much. home depot shares are rising after they beat estimates in the second quarter. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
david: watching home depot. their earnings were out earlier this month, and they beat across the board, including same-store sales because it indicates the housing sector perhaps. this is their second straight quarter beating estimates. alix: that is managing expectations. david: we talked about home depot, and he included craig
menear. we were down in atlanta. they are great managers. alix: what is impressive as their gross margins were stable. you have higher commodity prices and labor, but that is not being passed on to home depot. i thought that was an interesting read through on what tariffs are not doing too home depot. david: it is looking very good for home depot in the housing sector. alix: tune in tomorrow. david: tomorrow night. alix: half hour with ken lane. up, head of u.s. equity strategy, lori calvasina. we will break it down. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
boycotting american electronics and tightening liquidity. musk's new best friend. goldman and silver lake. distance starts to from tweets. european banks haunted by turkey. the head of the turkish unit italy blames speculators. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak," on tuesday, august 14. what is that irresistible force and immovable object? gan.p and erdo alix: that would be the tweet storm. elon musk. david: i would not give him any ideas. 8:00.
really rally underway. how long does that last? underway.rally german gdp, great revised gdp for the second quarter for europe. 4 is how we, 1.1 print. 26 basis points in the u.s. spread, data disappointing out of china, the market taking it in stride. crude over 1% even though lydia is pumping oil. explain this to me. -- libya. david: the morning brave, the u.s. import-export price index for july. at 8:30 a.m., the turkish president holds a joint news conference with the iraqi news minister. bankrgentinian central
will offer millions of dollars at a foreign-exchange option. defiantis sounding under continued pressure from the united states. he said they will boycott iphones and other american electronics and will stand firm against the dollar. turkish] >> i can see that they are taking dollars to the banks and exchanging them with turkish lira. changed intoeing turkish lira to preserve the honor of our turkish lira. david: you can see a fairly warm reception for rage of murder one erdogan.ycip becauseme distracted
that beautiful scene behind you. it looks like the president is taking to the airwaves. the talking is out of this crisis. is it working? reporter: if you thought the rhetoric over the weekend was combative, he took it to another level. he has always been known for speeches with fire and fury but a few key points really show it is a much more nuanced and targeted message. you mentioned the key points, threatening they will be boycotting american products, saying the u.s. has been targeting economies around the world, and from the foreign minister we heard a description of the u.s. administration of one as being in chaos and bullying other countries coming to an end. feud,st time around, this around thursday, friday when the
turkish government refused to budge, the american administration slapped tariffs and threatened escalation. the turkish government has said we are not backing down, we may get another round of sanctions from u.s. david: mr. bolton, the national security adviser said yesterday, we are not going to talk to the turks. he had a meeting with the turkish ambassador. it doesn't seem like the united states will back down. you know him better than i do. president is not likely to take a u-turn. reporter: it does not look likely. perhaps the market was hoping we would see a glimmer of reconciliation, that there would be a sign. far from it. there is a clear escalation in tone. a russian foreign minister in town holding a public news conference,
underscoring he is willing to realign for policy priorities away from the united states because of what you perceive as behavior that is not fair and not in turkish interests, then toward other allies that turkey has. also threatening to move away economically. the threat was and what they are doing is converting dollars into lira and looking at other ways to open funding lines with allies to move away from the dollar as a base currency in transactions. david: thank you for your times. that is yousef gamal el-din in istanbul. alix: we wound up seeing the lira slide extend. joining us now is lori calvasina , rbc capital markets head of u.s. equity strategy. let'sher, -- esther,
start with you. the problems are homemade with the lira, and they will not go away by blaming foreign powers. as long as turkey does not take care of homemade problems, the lira has a further downside. alix: let's talk about the contagion. we had a question about capital controls. stepsy have already taken to limit trade in u.s. dollars. preventing people from hedging u.s. dollars and so forth. completestep could be currency control and not allowing dollars to get out of the country. this is a real possibility. alix: there are two parts. what happens to turkey? what other emerging markets get hit? esther: one of the problems is
turkey has a huge account deficit and they need external financing to finance this deficit. if they restrict foreign capital externals will mean financing will break down. this will have a serious impact on the turkish economy. onut the contagion effect other emerging markets -- i am more confident the markets will be more optimistic. other central banks have indicated they are going to take necessary steps to stabilize currencies and this speaks against the contagion effect on em. alix: higher rates is key. rates ispect of higher unlikely to go away unless something bad happens across central banks, causing them to panic, something to consider as we try to argue that what
happens in turkey stays in turkey." meaning that if this effect has longer-term implications? >> i think the fed is set on this course. alix: do you need to be strategic in how your hedging, in order to offset broader landscapes? lori: that pushes you to some places you want to go anyway. over the last few days, defensive sectors have held up, the s&p 500 has held up. utilities are perking up. we're seeing good valuations in those areas of the market anyway. andd: if there is contagion depreciation of em currencies, which sectors are most likely to be affected in the u.s.? some companies earning a lot of money overseas and that money is worth less when they bring it back. lori: it is hard to know the em
exposure exactly. this of companies say -- is our international exposure and we will not tell you specific countries. technology, industrial, materials, consumer and -- consumer companies have a fair chunk of that exposure. david: as you look at earnings, company say -- we had headwinds because of fx exposure. lori: it was a resounding cry of, i would not say concern but it was something companies across multiple sectors were flagging in the last reporting season. even health care kept putting this risk in the comment. that is going to come back to bite investors in third quarter and when i was looking at markets on friday when turkey was dominating, the thing that along to me was the spike in dxy. we went up to 96 on friday.
currency guides are saying, go up to 98. i do not think that is in the forecast. alix: a pickup in volatility. i will show the volatility across different aspect classes from treasuries to fx and the vix. the white line will be fx volatility. is it sustained and where do you see the dollar peaking? think we have seen much of the rally that is about to come. the u.s. dollar was in demand because of the risk, off the fear of em contagion effect. we do not think this will spread. set rate hikes are an issue but these are priced in and there are no surprises. if we see a contagion effect, the risk will fade. esther, both of
♪ emma: this is "bloomberg daybreak," this is the bloomberg business flash. home depot offering more evidence the u.s. housing market is strong. better than expected reports. welcome news after they reported disappointing results in the previous quarter. property owners tend to spend more on homes when they believe value is ripening. ford rejecting calls to pair dividends. analysts at morgan stanley say the automaker cannot afford to
pay the quarterly dividend. earnings are evaporating and the company is undergoing $11 billion restructuring. cash toaker has enough cover the dividends. unemployment in the u.k. has fallen to a 43 year low, falling 2/10 of 1%. economypean largest grew more than expected, germany rising one half of 1% in the second quarter. alix: despite the fact that we had good data out of europe, gdp up. what happened? the euro went down. we are flat on the day but the euro took a move lower when the data came out. ander reichelt in frankfurt lori calvasina. esther, why?
why is the euro not reacting to the stronger data? esther: this might be largely due to the concerns about italy, that we will see another crisis. this is something that is popping up again and again in the markets, giving a limit to the upside in euro. alix: if you look at the bund spread, blowing out basis points, the italian league blaming that because of turkey, saying it is significant, and the external event like turkey has nothing to do with italy, unleashes the effect. the financial speculation easily sees periphery debt as a target. how much more blowout can we have when you have turkey in the
foreground? depends on the developments in turkey and there is concern about the european banks. we have had several central bankers from european countries coming out and trying to calm the market. it will depend whether the ecb have moreey will courses with normalization and whether this will be a topic that will be in the market more commonly. david: one of the banks that is exposed is spain. they said this overnight "something has to be done about rates. is their need? calling for monetary tightening." the certain exposure of european banks in turkey is striking. -- 15% at at the top the top. one of the things that struck me was the concentration of risk in
turkey of these european banks. is that likely to be replicated in the united states? lori: we do not have that here. david: what about other emerging markets? level in thee that united states? lori: i do not believe that is in the numbers. in general, that is the point of the stress tests and the more vigorous regulation in the u.s., we are not exposed to these systemic risks. david: does that make it a better investment? lori: we have not seen it yet. we have not seen that rotation from european banks to u.s. banks. there is not a lot of selling pressure on u.s. banks. they are drifting lower, more for a lack of demand. that has nothing to do with turkey. there are other issues there. they do not have the same level of exposure. david: thank you so much for joining us.
♪ musk posted a blog yesterday explaining why he tweeted last week about having financing to take tesla private. "i notify the board in my personal capacity i wanted to take tesla private at $420 per share. i made the announcement last tuesday because i felt it was the right and fair thing to do so investors had the same information at the same time. i will continue to talk with investors and i have engaged advisors to investigate a range of structures and options."
he tweeted yesterday that he was working with goldman sachs and silver lake. whether he is gone about this the way he was supposed to has been question by the sec and private class actions. we welcome now teresa goody a former sec attorney. thank you for joining us. teresa: thank you for having me. david: if you look at that specific statement, then you look at what he posted yesterday, there is something of a disagreement. he is now exploring things with different advisors. it didn't sound that last week. teresa: i agree. that clearly seems as though he does not in fact have funding secured. his blog makes that obvious. it also makes obvious that the offer he was saying he was going to put forward, did not actually
take place. whether or not it is reasonable for him to believe he has the means for the funding to take place, that is another issue. it was good he discussed the fact that his tweets were not accurate and it is good he started to bring clarity to the market. it is clear he did not have the funding secured. david: what are the potential consequences of that tweet? now he is saying -- i am working on it. several days past, a fair amount of trading went on including the stock shooting up and then settling. he is still subject to the ramifications we thought he could be. making untrue statements when you do not have reasonable basis, that would impact security of markets, is still a violation of the anti-fraud rule. in addition, making any statement as to a tender offer and whether or not you believe
you will follow through with it is another violation. his violations are still piled. he has come to a point where hopefully they will stop. he has sophisticated advisors in place so hopefully we see this moving forward in a more usual manner. david: in a public company, if the ceo starts to have atcussions about private, what point does the obligation to disclose that to the world kick in? does notenerally this happen for a long time because there has to be more certainty. you do not want to disclose things to market that will it affect it away this tweet did. the ramifications of not having full information out there, a good idea of whether or not that position would take place. we are talking about saudi itbia, regulatory scrutiny, is very uncertain whether or not this would go forward or would
it pass muster with other regulators? the point at which you generally go forward with shareholders and you make full disclosure is much later, when you have more certainty. there are also issues as to, whether or not he talked to shareholders earlier. it says he spoke to the board on the second, it was not for another week he issued the tweet. did he talk to large shareholders before then? what did they say? were they not on board? is that why he tweeted? this is generally not the way you would go forward and it is not recommended. david: if there is legal much of it is on you on must personally and how much would be shared by the corporation and the board? teresa: interesting question. the way they are doing this communication muddies the waters. you have him in this tweet, he says is personal, they have also
issued, the company, and a prior statement, the ceo could use the twitter account for disclosing material information to shareholders. then his personal twitter account becomes a venue for him to disclose information regarding the company, which makes his twitter account subject to the security clause. on the flip side -- they do not disclose that enough or regularly say he is going to use his twitter account so whether or not this would be disclosure under the company for regulatory purposes is a different issue. i don't think this would be recognized as adequate disclosure for the company. i believe his twitter feed is subject to the security clause because of those disclosures and the fact that he does tweet as a ceo, he has fiduciary duties to the company. andas personal liability,
the company in having this disclosure that they will use the feed, hosting this blog on the website -- you do not bidder of aave the tender offer being able to post their intentions on a company website. they are muddying the waters, what is on behalf of the company and what is on behalf of him? there is liability for both. he seems to say in his blog that there is a buyin. david: thank you so much. very helpful. alix: the latest read on trade in the u.s. import and export data, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
relief rally across the board. losing steam in europe. better gdp in the second quarter from europe. currency down 1/10 of 1%. 1.13 is how we print. the selloff extending it italy with yields down eight basis points. export prices, year on year up 1% on a down 5/10 of month by month basis. import stronger year on year at 4.8%, flat on a sequential basis. we are looking for signs of tariff impact, of the dollar impact as well. i wonder what read we get. farm export prices plunging the most since 2011. that really will hurt farmers. when their income is already at a low level. david: troubles well before the
dispute. there is a push and pull in import prices, stronger dollar driving that down and tariffs driving that up. alix: cultural export prices falling the most. -- agricultural export prices falling the most. carl, what did we learn? changese month on month were on the top side. it looks like the strength in the dollar is starting to take a toll on import story. is more important headline distortion of petroleum prices, up 44%. nonpetroleum imports up 1.3%. that is rolling over. a big reason the cpi last week was stronger than expected was due to fading deflation in the goods sector. that will be short-lived given
what is happening with the dollar. dollar strengthening, starting to push roll over in nonpetroleum import prices. these are deflationary downdraft which may give the fed pause. alix: the tesla story? david: tesla formed a committee. musk saidmething elon they would be doing. he telegraphed this but tesla has made it official. a committee will evaluate potentially going private offers. it says, thank you, the committee has not yet received the formal elon musk proposal. alix: he has not secured funding, he has advisors, but no proposal. david: they will consider proposals. we will continue to cover that. alix: they are comprised of three independent directors. we will see. that drama unfolding through blog posts, tweets and committee
announcements. back to import-export prices. what do you expect to see? ofl: this is the beginning the roll over and you see this intensify in the back half of the year. nonpetroleum import prices up 1.3%, year on year. the last time the trade weighted dollar had moved as far as it basicallytly, was when prices were flat. this is a significant change in the trend over several months. alix: lori, you spoke about the dollar earlier. lori: he comes back to earnings. drivers we track are neutral but earnings is in focus. backward looking stuff is fantastic, going through the roof and forward-looking stuff is slowing down. when i talked investors, they are looking forward. alix: you have to look at the trade impact. in past episodes where we
had this appreciation of the dollar in the current cycle, we have seen significant downdraft into the economy, whether it was export sector taking it on the chin or domestic producers facing a flood of cheap imports. a lot of industries you think would not be sensitive to external developments, were. even u.s. workers at multinational companies suddenly find them priced out at uncompetitive levels and production slows. david: there is more than one import point. not just the trade. carl: u.s. economists are conditioned to look at the export sector, which is small. david: let's look at the increased bar from the u.s. government as it has a larger deficit. we have the trade issues. we have the tax cuts. when you put them together, in the second half of this year and into 2019, what does that add up to? carl: a sugar high for the
economy. david: that means you come off the sugar high. carl: if you get a credit card you can live for a million or like a day. we are ramping up treasury issuance, allowing the economy to grow faster. this party starts to wind down in 2019 and 2020 as growth moderates back to 2% or less. that means the fed will have to ease on the brake pedal. export prices year on year at 4.3% and import prices year on year at 4.8% but it was really the farmer incomes, the lowest since 2011. carl, thank you. watching tesla. it is forming a special committee, comprised of three independent directors to consider tesla going private. david: we do not know what is going on in the boardroom. alix: neither do they.
david: they are not joined at the hip to elon musk. talking about private capacity, not as a board member. they have an independent committee. -- they haveeived not received the formal proposal from elon musk himself. those directors are saying, ok, where is it? alix: the committee says it has the full power and authority of the board to take any and all actions on behalf of the board of directors. the board is distancing itself from elon musk, considering the relationship between them has been so intertwined before. david: in this company -- there are few companies like that -- like steve jobs at apple -- elon musk is tesla. alix: not according to him. david: that will be a hard distinction to be drawn with investors. alix: the millennials have twitter.
handle, that is your work one and then you have a personal one. i can barely tweet. david: people have two instagram's. alix: how do you have the time? we had a macro picture with import-export prices and earnings. earnings seasons almost over, 90% of s&p companies posting average earnings surprise of 5.5%. .till with us, lori calvasina that is where we are halfway through the year. lori: it feels like things are slowing. expectations are getting rained in. -- reigned in. is a directe, reaction to the complaint about labor, freight, shipping,
general inflationary pressures building. if you look at revenue growth expectations -- very healthy but we are starting to see them trimmed. it has been fascinating. q2 has been a fantastic positive surprise. q3 expectations are coming down. the only good news in the forward-looking picture to earnings is companies are saying -- we may have overestimated what the tax burden is. it may be lower than what we thought because we are working through the impact. david: can equities absorb a trending down? you are not saying it is a cliff. just less than what it has been. the price-to-earnings ratios have come down. they are not at sustained levels they were a year ago. lori: sustained levels look fine. 16.8 times, above average, the cap weighted index. we have seen dramatic improvement.
that gives you cushion but not much of a catalyst either. stocks are not cheap or expensive. alix: the word i hate most in this world is, fine. if someone tells me i look fine, i change my outfit. if that is the case -- what makes it not fine? it will not be an inversion of the yield curve or recession. is there something in the short term that could cause that? lori: this gets more into the economic outlook. we are asking the wrong question about the economic outlook. everyone says -- when will we have the recession? is it somewhere later than 2020? that is wrong. the economy is humming. when i hear things slowing in europe, e.m. dragging us down, i am worried if we will go below 2% on real gdp. in thato back decades, 1.5% range, markets selloff in the current year or the year
before. david: could you have that at the same time as you have tickingn taking up -- up? lori: that is the bigger risk than imminent recession. we have cushion. we can take a number of blows. this is just my risk factor. that is what i worry about more. markets historically do not act well in that scenario. it is not just recession. sluggish growth is just as bad for markets. david: lori calvasina, thank you so much for being here. an update on headlines outside the business world. amazon is here. -- emma chandra is here. emma: police have arrested a man in hi a terrorist incident in london. no injuries appear to be life-threatening. police arrested the driver, in man in his 20's.
a bridge on the main road between italy and france collapsed today sending cars plunging more than 250 feet. immediate reports of 11 people dead. the bridge collapsed during storms. the turkish president is sounding defiant. issaid today the nation strong against the dollar and is promising boycotting of american electronics. the lira is taking a breather after falling 30%. it is rising against the dollar. turkish retail accounts sold dollars to avoid the slide. president trump renewing attacks on omarosa manigault newman. he said "good work by general kelly for quickly firing her." she has written a tell all book
and has secretly recorded conversations. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra, this is bloomberg. david: thank you. coming up, where are the opportunities to invest in in brazil? we discuss with tom shapiro. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
emma: this is "bloomberg daybreak," and coming up later on "bloomberg markets," exclusive interviews. now to your bloomberg business flash. the tesla board has formed a committee to evaluate the offer by elon musk to go private. the committee has not yet received the proposal from an. tesla plans to retain independent financial counsel to assist. coca-cola making moves to diversify beyond sugary beverages. they are buying a minority stake in body armor. terms of the deal are not disclosed. president wants to hit the u.s. where it hurts -- in the gadgets department.
they are vowing to boycott american made electronic products, including the iphone. the u.s. imposed sanctions on turkey for refusing to released a detained american pastor. david: thank you. for growing turkey economic crisis has raised questions around the world about whether it could spread to emerging markets, such as brazil. we welcome thomas shapiro. his firm is one of the largest real estate private equity companies in brazil. thomas: thank you for having me. david: does anything that is happening in turkey affect the value of your investment or how you invest in brazil? thomas: it has been currency related. brazil is one of the best-performing stock markets in the world and has sold off with em's.
we think about why we went to brazil and how we are staying the course. when we went in 2005, we saw a growing middle class, on 40 million people entering the middle class. brazil produces a lot of what the world needs. we saw a huge demand for real estate, a lot of quality real there was very low financing available so people would selloff floors. quality was not there. we saw a large global companies leaving space. we look at the jobs in brazil. it is in a specific place, the attached from other markets -- it is detached from other markets. david: when you look at making investments, do you take into account the trade deficit? external funding? there could be a currency crisis down the pike. thomas: we are looking at the
macro factors. job growth is one of the most important. given that we have a large portfolio now, it is interesting, inflation is coming in to check in brazil. it has started to peak up. we are careful. we are seeing demand. especially from tech companies. in our premier buildings, we had 0% vacancy. it is a tell a two cities, rio got caught up in scandal and demand, thatat, pulled back dramatically. we are looking at fundamentals, everything macro, currency, seeing what is going on in the markets. from an investment perspective, we are selling income and that has a lot to do with the fact
that interest rates have dropped in brazil. they were 14% 12 months ago. now they are 6.5%. cap rates, the multiple you can so property it has gone up. there is demand. selling now are income-producing assets, we believe demand is going to pick up. alix: what about infrastructure? thomas: that is one of the most interesting parts. brazil was always green. alo or -- colike or nuclear. we have had problems, there were droughts, that cause blackouts through the country as the reservoirs drop. -- dropped. we do a lot of solar and wind. we hired a team to invest in that sector because it is one of the most interesting parts. alix: also infrastructure,
trucks and roads. brazil should be a beneficiary of the tariffs on soybeans. china should be buying more soybeans from zell. you cannot get them out. -- soybeans from brazil. thomas: let's talk about soy. months,n the last few since the trade war broke out. brazil has issues with infrastructure, as far as the roads and ports. that has gotten better. there is a ring road around sao paulo, the traffic is gotten better. they have done infrastructure in rio from the olympics. it has gotten better. brazil, exports, we will see positive numbers. we start with soy. david: when am i doing business in brazil? investors say it can be difficult. permitting problems, corruption. thomas: it has gotten better but
it is a complex place. every global investor makes the same mistake. do not just put a guy on the ground, you have to have a team. we have 32 full-time employees in brazil and we have a team in the u.s. dedicated to brazil. we have one lawyer in the united states, four in-house lawyers in brazil. it is complicated. but the question -- is it worth it? because of the lack of quality of real estate, we built office buildings, goldman sachs, bloomberg, apple, louis vuitton, all headquarters, we do industrial, 14,000 apartments and we own 53 hotels. it is a complex place to do business and that is a barrier of entry to other players. things do not tend to get as oversupplied as other markets. david: he is our landlord.
they have been trying to make an effort to pick more independent members. that said, there was a cfo at solarcity, which is now part of tesla. they have retained watkins as legal counsel for the board and it is the sort of step that should have been taken one week ago before tweeting. david: the lawyers are doing well on this. every law firm has been retained by somebody or the other. is this the board saying, put up or shut up? we have not received a formal proposal from mr. musk. happens, usually what as we saw with dell, when that when private, the relevant executive, elon musk, is
cornered from the rest of the board and told he is not allowed to be part of the decision-making process. roscess. that was delayed. he is saying we are on different sides of the equation, not necessarily in the same group and you have to prove this is in the best interest of the company and shareholders. david: and you have to make cars. alix: thank you very much. the lawyers will be the big beneficiary. [laughter] on "bloomberg higher," the move relief rally. this is bloomberg. ♪
-- i'm jonathan ferro. this is the countdown to the open. , the calm after the emerging markets storm. the lira rebounding. global equities rallying. investors increasingly bullish on america. elon musk continuing to drip feed. details on his controversial plan to take tesla private. futures positive of almost eight points on the s&p 500. the euro still a little soggy. 288.uries stable at the panic sweeping through emerging markets starting to ease. investors debating. the potential still for contagion. we should worry about emerging markets writ large rather than turkey as an isolated instance. >> it depends how large the currency crisis looms. >>