tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg September 11, 2018 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
dynamics. hope theinly i also markets will come to the rationality. they are changing their positions because it is driven by fundamentals for all. this is exactly what we try to do. haslinda: you talk about policy response. is it important for the finance ministry and central-bank to come together and sent a message, capital controls not out of the plan? this is an issue that needs to be addressed together between government and the central bank of indonesia. the central bank is independent. world hasntrol in the changed since the financial crisis. country measure for a
to become an innocent victim of this kind of global environment. in a way, this is you are in a total market and everything will be fine. the country has the fix what is time,ary, but at the same we have to be able to come up to this collaboration and coordination. the same spirit for the g20. it is now gone. everybody is so busy with their own domestic policies that creates even more problems for the global economy. at the annual meeting, g7, g20, all call for more cooperation. there is evidence that in a time, the world is a
modernizing trent. nd. haslinda: are capital controls consider tou would protect indonesia and the rupiah? >> indonesia -- there is free capital movement indonesia. -- in indonesian. that cost us a lot and also benefits us quite a lot. you can get capital. clear,e very safe and that there can be an indonesia. they can leave if they don't like us. trade policy and fiscal policy to maintain this sort of confidence. in a situation in which the ld they cannot even ho
they communicated very clearly they always have the policy mixed in response to the situation, both on the monetary side, balance agreement as well as stability of the currency. whether it is in the form of inflation or interest rates. i think bank of indonesia will continue to do their policy, in this case, interest rates, intervention as well as allowing the flexibility to absorb. indonesia is continuing flexibility so i think it is really up to bank of indonesia adjustment in the policy best serving indonesia. we work together very closely within government, minister of finance and central-bank. this kind of problem cannot be addressed separately between central banks and governments. while they are expecting their
independency on how they formulate the policy, we always communicate closely in order to address the issue. that has become the source of this dynamic. haslinda: the psychological 15,000, thatnow is is what markets are preoccupied with. is it true you are able to cope with the rupiah even at 18,000? >> the stress test is not supposed to be disclosed. the psychology. you are the one asking me a cycle is nott the supposed to be the cycle is not supposed to be the most dominant.
indy to be addressedindy to be s to be addressed. the current account deficit, fiscal policy, monetary policy. we do hope that the market is going to react more rationally on what is actually needed for the indonesia economy as well as the risk. i think indonesia will adjust some policy. it is being recognized widely. macro economic, we are very sound. we know there is always a uselenge, but we instruments like fiscal policy addressing the issue, on education, labor force, infrastructure. we use flexibility in both and for the country of the economy to adjust with the dynamic of the global environment. haslinda: we have a strong dollar and we had turkey. andwhich is the bigger risk? globalized world.
globalized economy. all operate globally so they will adjust to the dollar strengthening, as well as their portfolio among emerging countries. for a country who actually is not doing anything wrong, but because facing with the strengthening of the u.s. dollar, as well as sentiment becauseemerging markets some countries are facing because some countries are facing difficulties, in this case like argentina, or a certain issue with turkey, it affects the sentiment of all emerging countries. for indonesia, we need to discriminate our self and not ti e it to this is what we are trying to do, what we are doing. in order to make the indonesia economy continuing to move in the right direction. inflation is stable. we have flexible interest rates. thanve fiscal deficits low
2%. next year will be 1.84%. we will continue to have a prudent macro policy and coordination with fiscal and monetary. haslinda: when you also have is an election coming up. what do you say to the people indonesia who are concerned that the currencies depreciating? 2009,had it in 2004, election in 2014. i think in each election, there is always a story, but indonesia has proven. elections is a time for the to vote. this is based on programs, their trust to whoever they are going to vote. i think indonesia, all leaders across political parties, they should commit to good policy.
i don't see that indonesia will come and say i will give you everything for free and every thing is going to be fine. there is no place like that. i think -- the good side about indonesia policy is when you bring this issue in the policy, it creates even more discipline for all parties to recognize managing, running indonesia is not like as easy as telling you everything is going to be easy. but they recognize this as a challenge and come up with a program. haslinda: is budget financing a challenge for you now? >> the deficit is much lower. after the budget performance, it is even better in this case. i have the latest figure until august. increased byas 18.5%. last year, only 11%.
revenue from taxation increased by 16.5% as of august. last year, only 9%. spending is also good. low.eficit is very this year, 1.0% of gdp. last year, 1.6% of gdp low. deficit, the same as august of 2017. position is much better, much stronger. that is why we are ready to withstand, fiscal policy more active in august to affect the economy, to support the economy, with this the issue fundamentally important, but we are not losing the fiscal discipline. we will continue and still continue consolidating the fiscal debt so it can maintain and strengthen the confidence of the economy. haslinda: thank you so much for your insight today. the finance minister of indonesia. the narrative remains the same.
note.ors should take rish? rishaad: haslinda with the indonesian finance minister. let's have a look at what is going on within the markets. we had a mixed kind of open. let's see how they are behaving themselves. streak, the losing loop -- longest losing streak -- david: in 16 years. june 2002. before we check markets in indonesia --before we check marn
>> the shanghai composite is now below the closing price -- it's 2016 low. ofis back to the levels 2014. broner markets look like of 2014. broner markets look like this -- have a look at the asia-pacific great we have the of 2014. broner markets look like this -- have a look at the asia-pacific great we have the dollar, 10 year yield and low prices. the stronger dollar in the philippines, country like india will be under pressure. approaching 3% on a 10 year yield. index --berg dollar
, slight upside. the bloomberg dollar index pretty sideways at the moment, down .35 of the index. rishaad: having a look at what this means for emerging markets because they continue to feel the, heat. this is not really a sign of an upturn anytime soon. let's get over to hanoi. our chief correspondent haslinda is there for the world economic forum. you said that people are cautiously optimistic earlier. tell me more about that. you are with a rather important man who has some keen insights and what is going on in malaysia. haslinda: you are right. the question is optimism. you take a look at markets like vietnam and malaysia, they have been unscathed despite the emerging markets. we talk about fundamentals. these are countries with pretty strong fundamentals, however in each economy, there are challenges. cimb group chairman is
joining me. malaysia seems to be escaped the emerging-market rout, but how do you assess the sentiment in the markets given thismalaysia seem? >> i think this time around, investors are much more discerning than we have seen in the past. investors differentiate the country's that have much less u.s. dollar in particular debt and malaysia is one of them. i think obviously, some investors will have to sell down in countries simply because of rebalancing and so forth. i think overall, i am optimistic we will remain rigid through this situation. haslinda: why the optimism? why do you think the region will ride the storm? >> i think countries in the region will be able to ride the u.s. dollar.
obviously, there is this expectation in the market that there will be rate hikes in two years. the outflow could be quite significant. that remains to be seen. i'm slightlyt, optimistic about malaysia. haslinda: malaysian challengers are slightly different. a new government and policy towards chinese investment. i'm slightly optimistic about malaysia. haslinda:how is that impacting sentiments? i think the sentiment today is we have a new government that is reviewing a lot of projects and is reviewing a lot of possibilities. i think investors are giving the outrnment time to omcome with a full set of policies. we have a budget coming out in early november and investors are looking forward to that. has indicated it is willing to sacrifice some growth in order to a more
sustainable rate of growth in the long-term. haslinda: what are you expecting, hoping to see from this country's budget? nazir: we want to see a full picture of the government's balance sheet. there has been talk about government debt being higher than originally understood by markets. spendingnment's commitments being higher than understood by markets. we would like to see clarity on that. secondly, how they will mitigate that. there reductions in opec? and projects to be expected? what i would like to see is some indication of the asset of the balance sheet. i think malaysia has a very strong asset title balance sheet. assets, look at the malaysia could withstand much higher levels i think the sentit today is we have a new
than comparable countries. haslinda: you talked about malaysia's debt. onere looking at about trillion zyngdebt for malaysia. what does the government need to do apart from implementing? nazir: let's be careful. number trillion is a that was already in the government's finances. it was clear what the new government has done is identified items on the balance sheet. it thinks it should be included in the overall definition of debt. this is not new stuff coming onto the balance sheet. what the government needs is to come out with a clear plan on how to bring down the on balance sheet and off-balance-sheet over the long-term.
the responses will be in terms as alltion as well revenues, as well as some divestments and reductions in opec. haslinda: there are expectations of another two fed hikes this year. what implications are there for the ringgit? that is what the market is looking at. nazir: the ringgit today has built in these new pictures with the government's balance sheet. inhink the ringgit has built these expectations. the danger is if the situation with a rate hike and the revenues for emerging markets will take protectionism. those factors could change the outlook not just for the ringgit, but all the currencies.
haslinda: you are one of the chairs for this meeting. the theme h ere is 4.0. how do you think countries like malaysia and the rest of the region can ensure that it gets to 4.0? nazir: i'm very strong about this, that we have a blueprint 2025. essentially, it is about meeting the targets that were set in 2007, in a very different world. we look is important is at those aspirations. in the context of today, 4.0. like a tsunamist for our economy. it has become even more imperative that we bring the regions together. in that context, we need to understand that -- sorry, being distracted by that -- what is important in 4.0 is the movement
of capital, movement of talent, and movement of data. those are the three most important things. the plan now has to focus on those things. set aside some of the difficult integration issues, because they are not so important anymore. what is important is what do we need? haslinda: from where you are seated, is asean ready to embrace the future economy? , her: i think the new asean has bought into this 4.0 challenge idea. i told him it is a bit like the game of thrones. winter is coming and we need to pull together to face it. think he is certainly going to give it a good -- important work in terms of identifying readiness of each country important to the revolution and how asean can force economies and difference together to strengthen our proposition in this new era.
possible is it that policies adopted by donald trump in the u.s. could derail what asean is working for? nazir: for sure. that is a much longer conversation, but i think they's world order,, dependency on the u.s., etc. has to be questioned. we all assume it the dependency on the u.s., will foe led by globalists. clearly, that shifted. the u.s. is much more self-centered in that way. i think it is important that emerging markets in the region offsetcollaborate to some of the potential risks coming out from a more insular u.s. haslinda: this meeting is being held amidst a lot of challenges, including what is happening in turkey. trade tensions in the u.s. and china. in your view, what is the
biggest challenge the region faces? nazir: the biggest challenge, long-term, is the 4.0. short-term is the make sure we actually help each other through this more difficult time. some markets are more vulnerable to the rise of the u.s. dollar. i think the ways our central bank and governments can collaborate. haslinda: there you have it, live razak, speaking us from the world economic forum in hanoi. our coverage continues. david: absolutely. we will be back there later on in hanoi. thank you so much, haslinda amin. dollar-malaysia, 4.14, lowest level since late last year. individualots of big corporate stories. pioneer being one of them. we are getting a bailout from private equity, $540 billion.
how times have changed for this company. yuden, short positions there. the biggest one, morgan stanley, 2.3 6 million shares. 1.81% of outstanding. we're also looking at inpex. yahoo! japan is getting an upgrade. price target is 415 at 374. upside about 10% suggested here. rishaad: more week is generally. this is the backdrop of weakness . the nikkei down by 4/10 of 1%. take a look at what is going on overall. that tells you. it goes across our screen. it is against these investors outlook. no end in sight for current trade tensions and this trade war between beijing and d.c. tenure treasury yields heading
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limited time get 150 dollars off and free shipping too. sale prices are available right now. go to buyleesa.com today. you need this bed. >> it is 10:29 a.m. in hong kong. i'm paul allen with the first word headlines. china and russia say they would strengthen ties in terms of president trump. president putin and xi held talks in vladivostok and said they trust each other in politics, trade and defense. neither mentioned the u.s. directly, but later xi underlined that russia and china agreed to oppose unilateral actions and protectionism. it was their third meeting this year. >> china and russia both bear the responsibility of maintaining world peace and stability and promoting development and prosperity. we share similar views and common interests which form a strong foundation. paul: russia has launched its
biggest ever wargames in collaboration with chinese forces and some units from uncle leo. the kremlin says it will feature hundreds of thousands of troops, as well as warplanes, military vessels and 36,000 tanks. the exercises even larger than the soviet union's 1991 drill that drew alarm bells of nato. it is seen as a warning to the u.s. to stop threatening russia. the earthquake that struck japan foodpected to push up prices and curb consumer spending. research things a spike could wer.e spending lo however, jpmorgan says it is unlikely to have much impact. unionk. in the european are said to be preparing for a special summit in november to sign a brexit deal. we are told several key issues remain to be resolved, but
scheduled to have a one-off gathering so they can agree to the terms. plans for the summit maybe announced as an eu meeting in austria next week. there is optimism on the deal. global news 24 hours a day on air and on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. david: thank you so much. we are on whether watch in the region. lots of weather systems barreling through. give or take about 30 minutes for now, we are poised storm number three. rishaad: this is a typhoon. the big one is that one. david: that should be entering the philippine area, the massive one, practically as big of the
country itself. it is a super typhoon that should be entering the philippine area of response ability tomorrow. thit is a super typhoon which is excited to cause disruptions there. into friday and the weekend. the other one we are talking about is the one right between the northern island of the philippines and taiwan which should be making its way into hong kong. you can feel it here. rishaad: looking into what is going on in the event the ocean. hurricane florence, number four hurricane. that is something which is playing out on the oil market, rushing up going over that cycle. $70 a barrel. 1.1% on the upside. all of this against what is happening here in terms of the weather and weather conditions
on the eastern seaboard of the united states. it can lead to inflation. david: absolutely. when you talk about high oil, expensive oil, one country comes to mind -- india. the most susceptible. a big net importer of energy. we have inflation numbers coming out later tonight. forecasters saying it fell below the rbi target. have a look at the bloomberg chart. you can see how that looks. 3.74% is what we're expecting. let's get more on with the numbers mean if it falls below the 4% level with our southeast asia economy coverage out of singapore. dated today will show the slowdown in inflation. can that be sustained is the big question? >> good morning. that is exactly right. we're expecting a cpi number that will come in at about 3.7%.
that is our current forecast showing that from economists. 4%t is way lower than the midterm target that the r.b.i. is expecting for its inflation. that puts the rbi in a comfortable position when it comes to cpi, but that does not tell us the full story. the inflation numbers today will probably be a reflection of the favorable base we have seen on food. once again, a large component of the cpi. it will drag down the cpi index. looking forward, i think the picture becomes more uncertain. prices andovated oil a very large oil consumer. coupled with that is the very rupee we are seeing.
that will feed into inflation. the rbi itself in the most recent, is expecting 4.8% inflation in the second half of the fiscal year. so, that is above the target. it will have to respond at some point. rishaad: tumble inflation data -- how will inflation data go into the next? monetary policy can have an impact on price rises on a country that has the structure of india's economy for instance. nasreen: that is right. we have had two interest rate increases so far by the rbi. the rbi is in inflation targeting central bank and the in of the day. it has an inflation target, a mandate to adhere to. whethery be debate on raising interest rates is going to impact, have an impact on inflation outcome given the
structured economy, but nevertheless, it has a target to maintain and has credibility to maintain. i think going forward, we are going to see probably more tightening from the r.b.i., that is what many economists are predicting but a lot will depend on what happens to the rupee. the central bank is not targeting any particular level of exchange rate, but to the extent the weaker currency will feedthrough along with those oil prices into the overall inflation number, it will foresee rbi to respond. we also have to look at a very strong economy. most recent gdp data has put growth at more than 8%. this is another risk that was highlighted by the rbi decision, most recently to hike interest
rates. we are starting to see inflation. rishaad: thank you very much, joining us from singapore. we will talk more about malaysia because as we have been reported, relatively unscathed in emerging markets. targeting a tricky path on a which global risks continue to mount. david: the pry minister in waiting, you told us the economy is managing to have this escalating trade war between the u.s. and china quite well. take a listen. >> the downside is that we export to these countries. to me, the positive is that we can affect more investments from china that will require new toters to be able to utilize export to the united states.
i think this is quite positive. >> attracting new investments from the likes of china for a better economic deal, canceling in delaying multibillion-dollar projects from china. where does that put the path of negotiating? mr. ibrahim: this is specific. countries,anner with not government. think they have presented sentiment in the country. we cannot continue with this project at a time the economy is struggling. secondly, it is confined to these companies. the initiative is assuring them it creates investments and we have continued. >> what other efforts you put in place to address the debt crisis? mr. anwar: that is a major
problem. people question why tell the story? it is a transparent, new government which will have to deal with the effects. in the not something case like some countries in the past like greece. we are able to overcome this challenge because, again as i said, the fundamentals are really strong. compared to the position we had in the last few years, but it is nowhere close being a weak economy. >> on the matter of tapping corruption, being transparent, is enough being done on those issues?s well as other mr. anwar: the last few months, a lot of work has been done in this regard. more complex than what we thought.
cooperation from the united states, switzerland and other countries dealing with these issues, particularly. i believe we will move gradually. all the losses. then, we are able to recoup. i believe most of the money squandered. anwar ibrahim. rishaad: coming up, it is not all gloom in emerging markets as we have been hearing. how they contribute to global growth. we will go back live to the world economic forum in hanoi. this is bloomberg. ♪
markets. wtod: china will ask the this month for permission to retaliate against the u.s. over its doping violation. rishaad: we have seen this play out and emerging markets. the implication of donald trump's ongoing trade war on these economies. haslinda amin is an hanoi for the world economic forum. no sign of relief as the emerging markets take another hit today. well, people are the outcome of the trade war between the u.s. and china. growth pretty much intact this year, but next year is questionable. kevin joins me this morning. lots of expectations in the trade war. what impact does this have for next year? kevin: first and foremost, lots
of things to go looking for in terms of tough there's and the trade issue is dominating the conversation. builtnomy that has success and manufacturing for the rest of the world. will that hit? i have heard many different views. for many, the fundamentals remain strong. the demand for the manufacturing here. of course, if they really do come as i have heard from is the leaders, we will have some tough times in the early part of next year. haslinda: tough times but it does not mean it will eat into the country's competitiveness, because nations are still very competitive. kevin: i think the challenge is not the short-term issue, but a fundamental issue of the shifting nature of competition. the reality of what built the emerging markets success story -- those circumstances are being challenged by technology and the industrial revolution.
that is a far more fundamental challenge for the long-term nature of these economies. one that if they rise to the occasion, brings opportunity. infrastructure, these capabilities amongst the people, that is a far more threatening challenge to these economies. haslinda: which countries are the standouts? we have vietnam at 7%. india growing in excess of 8%. kevin: don't forget, china is doing quite strongly with a large economy. despite the slowdown. the reality is asia is still the standout. a number of economies doing very well. i think those economies -- an approach which does not approach technology as opposed to labor costs. it brings the whole economy into the labor force. the investment and labo infrastructure needs to ensure access to technology, access to
broadband at scale. that investment has not been made at the level it needs to be made. haslinda: what are the biggest challenges? how are governments hoping -- with the challenge of embracing technology and asean 4.0? kevin: if you look at the world's emerging economies, we have studied 71 of those economies, we have come to the inclusion that 18 are standouts. world's emerging economies, we eight of those economies are here in asia. over 50 years at about 3.5%. reasons to believe that they are starting, and they have managed to go through some pretty challenging period. but, here is the but -- the digital economy demands a different approach. it demand access to ever structure and scale.
the level of investment that is required. now more than ever, asean's challenge is to create a market of opportunity with access to 650 million people in this part of the world and give the companies that are serving those people a chance at scale. if not, there is a chance the winners will be the u.s. and chinese companies already moving in. what is the right approach to technology, disruption? should governments wait before implementing what is the right policies if they don't understand what is coming their way, or to they just adopted wait and see approach, keep an open mind and see how it develops? kevin: the problem with waiting is the world is not waiting. this is a time we are seeing things evolve very quickly. policies if they don't understand what is coming rishaad: right we will bring
you, back there once we get some of these technical challenges ironed out. that get you caught up on the business flash headlines. david: may have ended alongside parse the because of interest rates and gasoline prices are reminding consumers they are cheaper. the head of nissan's north american's operations told bloomberg the market has hit rock-bottom and says there is still a big market here, five to 6 million cars sold every year. rishaad: saying investors should move past the rupee, and pay attention to improving earnings. is evidence to support 15% to 20% earnings growth in the next years. rallying to a record last month. i-sec seeing positive indicators, including consumption and growth.
thed: let's have a look at flight from singapore to london will be grounded. norwegian air shuttle flies at last service on january 11. its website shows there are no flights beyond that date. costs will prove to be a winning model. the commercial viability and economics of long haul, low-cost operations. rishaad: just taking a look at what is going on. we have airlines, we also have oil prices. that is the biggest expense for any airline. it as wegroup feeling do see the oil pricerishaad: of0 a barrel. at $82.arly
segment. joining us today in the red corner, our asian metals and mining reporter and our asian equities reporter in the blue corner. putting their best charts against each other. vou can check it out on gt go. rishaad: let's start things off with crystal. what do you got? i am sure it is related to what you do. >> yes. i'm an oil reporter. when i tell people, many of them asked what is good to write about these days? oil in the highlighted portion has basically flatlined in the 60's for six commits consecutie months. plenty to write about. the market is in a state of tremendous flux. if china intensifies its chase for blue skies, purity in the form of iron ore more than ever.
one example is the widening spread between high grade and low-grade iron ore. iron ore is a commodity that is a benchmark for asia's largest economy, and that is china. as the market is ablaze with chatter on the upcoming cuts in the fourth quarter, the global industry is really looking at new trends, record prices and clearly watching for how they will grapple with the new norm in the markets. rishaad: i like that. it shows they are going through quality, not quantity. countries going up the value chain to some extent, in the sense they have done the basics. 65% content 65% content there. diamonds, when you can afford it, go up and clarity. rishaad: move on. we are behind. david: let's have a look at equities. or we looking at equities
the rupee here? >> of course, the rupee is the story for india. india rupee is falling fast and how. linking the rupee woes to the emerging markets. but as the chart clearly shows, there are things closer to home as well. if you look at the chart, the trade deficit is shown by the following line. the widest since 2013 which is also one of the factors impacting the rupee. india does not have much control of the external risks it faces, it can look at the trade deficit data and try to cut down on the nonessential imports to get the rupee, to support the rupee at this time. we have productions coming down that the rupee could go down as much as 75 to one dollar. rishaad: that is a great chart as well. this is a tough one, guys. david: here we go. rishaad: what is your viewpoint
? i will judge today. david: we talk about the rupee a lot. a lot of people know about the trade deficit. rishaad: especially in that situation. david: yeah. i like the iron ore chart. that is my opinion. incremental information. rishaad: sorry, not today, but great stuff anyway. it was difficult. crystal, thank you so much. if you want to have a look at that chart, there we go. david: you be the judge and tell us whether rish got it right toronto. . we are looking into markets closing at midday. we are looking at the benchmark. we have malaysia down about 6/10 of 1%. japan is on a lunch break. hong kong sinking deeper into their markets. rishaad: china also feeling it. it is a broad-based.
16 years since we saw a decline like this. this is a situation generally speaking. yield for the 10 year is creeping up to 10%. the index. away from 6, looking at progress in this post nafta deal. deal in the markets in thailand and india where currencies are pushing towards all-time lows. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
emily: i am emily chang in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." theng up in the next hour, crypto crunch, digital currencies have taken a $400 billion hit since january. we ask where is the crypto roller coaster heading next. plus, a countdown to the next iphone refresh. we will preview wednesday's big launch. and, president trump expected to roll back methane protections, one of the most potent