tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg December 14, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." next hour,n the apple's stock it's a seven month low. ofe analysts joined the core skeptics warning about the prospect for iphone sales. we hear from one who cut his target. 2018 was a year of techlash. what does 2019 have in store? we will look at the possible big tech trend in the year ahead.
amazon whole foods splits up with insta card. how big of a blow will this be to the grocery delivery service? apple says china's iphone ban a forfeit -- force it to settle with qualcomm. will also push a software update to chinese users to modify functions found to infringe key qualcomm patents, but qualcomm says this is not enough. here to discuss is mark gurman and the vice president -- we're glad you're back here. walk us through the fine print. qualcommevel apple and have been fighting for a number of years. there are over 100 legal proceedings spread out across the u.s.. this is a wide sweeping dispute. it's in leverage over patent
licensing fees or the fees that apple and other smartphone makers have to pay in order to use technology developed by qualcomm. some of that is essential to the two g, 3g, 4g lte standards. it has to do with battery power, screen brightness, how the modem works, things like that. emily: if they do this to the phones in china, are these issues that exist in other markets? matt: these are issues qualcomm has raised in multiple jurisdictions. qualcomm has not gotten u.s. traction. there was a trade decision that when in qualcomm's favor, but the itc decided not to issue an injunction. the issue is still pending. traditionally a more favorable jurisdiction when it comes to patent litigation and blocking the sales export import of infringing features. it's a win for qualcomm. all these decisions are in the
aggregate facilitating stella meant talks and where the dispute winds up resolving. emily: apple says they will be forced to settle with qualcomm causing all mobile phone manufacturers into relapse to -- to relapse into the previous turning mode resulting in unrecoverable losses in the downstream market of mobile phones. apple is saying this way impact the consumer, other handset makers, and other handset makers have complained about fees qualcomm charges, correct? mark: that is right. the quote is from an apple the chineseing to government and then seeking to overturn the injunction. scenario,aying in one in the worst-case scenario, they would have to settle if this injunction is not overturned by china. emily: qualcomm says they are legally obligated to cease sales.
and importation of the devices identified in the orders, and to prove compliance in court. that's from the qualcomm general counsel. how likely is an actual ban here? more broadly. matt: it depends on who you speak with. qualcomm will say a ban is likely. they won in court, they have cases is pending, anticipate more wins. apple will take the other side and say we plan for these contingencies. say, because a lot of the functionality lives in the guts of the phone and depends on the sufficiency of the workaround. the threats loom. they become a little bit of a procedural issue. can you get the designs approved to avoid the bands, or on the other side, do the bans cause headaches? it causes a distraction for apple in trying to come up with these contingency plans.
it creates a lot of pressure. whether or not one goes into effect is causing headaches. emily: in the meantime, apple is fighting concerns about iphone sales broadly. they are not going to report unit sales. that has everyone concerned. you have reported pseudo-discounts are being offered for the iphone's with trade-in. put this into context for us. mark: that's a good phrase, pseudo-discounts. i wish i thought of that. tos is just they continue string of bad news around the iphone for apple. the wholenging over thing, is no longer reporting unit sales. you would get the string of bad news in the past, and apple would report how many units would be sold. this time, we will not get that clarity. that has a compounding of act for people worried about this. emily: how do the trade tensions, matt, impact the
situation between the united states and china? matt: the dynamics play in the tonese courts are beholden some government interests, but china has done a lot to set up a very strong, when it comes to high tech, intellectual property system. they have a lot of input from the u.s., germany in constructing these ip courts. emily: which is so ironic given the concerns of how china handles ip from anywhere else. matt: there's a lot of rhetoric. there are two at mines, for a long time, if you spend tech to china it gets copied and ripped off. that is some -- that is still true in some venues. china needs to protect some of these high-tech investment and bolster their own intellectual property protection to thrive moving forward. insee a little turning point the trade concerns and mandatory
patent licensing and things like that that go on in china. that being said, these are lawsuits being filed a long time ago. applemm went to china, filed a suit in china because they have pretty robust protections. it's both sides of the sword. in thebeen selected jurisdiction because of these characteristics. some of the trade tensions lan qualcomm's favor. -- trade tensions playing qualcomm favor. emily: could complaint from chinese handset makers help when apple's case? mark: absolutely. china is a fan of their own component makers, phone makers, others, so if they start chiming in on apple's behalf and say qualcomm is impacting them too, that would be a win for apple as well. it's ironic given apple's new competition in this landscape.
emily: what does the settlement outlook look like? does qualcomm have the upper hand? matt: it's complicated in the dispute between apple and qualcomm, and the u.s. ftc and their lawsuit against qualcomm. the apple argument has been so long as qualcomm's licensing practices under scrutiny that federal regulators are crossed a bunch of different -- across a bunch of different companies, they can savings rates are too high and the regulators think they are too high. that becomes less attractive when you face product bans in china, and you have lawsuits reaching decision point across the u.s. and germany. the timing, looking at these lawsuits, tens to be end of this year-- tends to be end of this year. the companies have a good idea of how these decisions will go even though they are not public yet. it increases the settlement prospect. it's always difficult to predict
when a lawsuit will settle. itt because of the timing, allows people to see the writing on the wall and it narrows the bid ask. mark: the latest iphone is the one that so far have not been impacted. qualcomm says they are impacted, but there has not been much of a discussion. designed qualcomm out already. hapless coming out with a software update in china next week, they said last night it in thetigate two patents latest discussions, the ones having to do with the injunctions. i don't anticipate any consumer
facing changes that would be easily noticeable. emily: mark gurman and matt larson, who is not ours anymore but works at oceanic partners. they key so much for coming back to visit. later in the show, we will continue our conversation on apple with someone who just cut his price target on the stock. boasts a of photoshop rosy sales forecast beating estimates. adobe signaled its roster of products maintain strong growth. the company is trying to maintain -- become a market leader in e-commerce tools. 2018 was the year dominated by tech scandals and tensions. what does 2019 have in store? we take a look at next year's potential. if you like bloomberg news, check us out on the radio. listen on the bloomberg app, bloomberg.com, and, in the u.s., sirius xm. this is bloomberg. ♪
emily: 2018 has been the year of techlash, with concerns about and the -- data privacy, big tech lovely. facebook, amazon, and google have all faced controversies. as a result, we see a massive rout in tech stocks this year. it's a big pullback from facebook and out for bet especially -- and alphabet especially. joining me is the ceo of activate who published their media outlook for 2019.
would you say these controversies have overshadowed real innovation this year? michael: definitely. morell see so many exciting things about to happen in tact. so many new innovations, and also ways that will add noticeably to the revenues of not just the major tech companies, it also a whole set of other companies in the ecosystem. emily: what tact will break out in the coming year? michael: the
amazon, and google, but within the next three years, the average american will have 12 smart cameras in their lives. that's above and beyond that is today on your computer or phone. that's because the huge amount of intelligence built into the network around the smart cameras, and the fact that people are not just putting one smart camera on their home. once a own one, they own more. emily: what you mean by smart camera? our phone cameras and computer cameras. michael: it's all of the cameras that people are going to have on their cars, and we see the smart cameras exploding because people are going to look at them as a way in which they can not only interact with other people, let's control security in their lives. you talked about concerns about privacy. all of our research shows the people most concerned about privacy are the ones who are the most likely to want to have a smart camera. emily: so smart camera, you think that will be more important than smart speaker's? the speakers are not just on the kitchen counter anymore. amazon makes them on the go. michael: the last years have been about voice.
going forward, it is about vision. just what the intelligence can do in terms of what you say, but what it sees you doing. we expect people will put more of the cameras, devices from cameras -- with cameras, inside of their homes. so many of the smart speaker are equipped with a camera, but they are all the standalone cameras in network together. it becomes even more exciting when you think about the fact that people put a ring camera on their front door, backdoor, and windows, and network with everyone else in their neighborhood to see what is going on. emily: you'll also done research on how much more time you believe we will be spending with tech and media. how are these additional cameras and speakers going to help our tech addiction? michael: we expect, within the next year, people will spend another 10 minutes a day with tech and media. that is on top of what they are
doing already. that comes from multitasking. some of the places we see the most amount of growth are in places like web video. other things people are going to be able to do in addition to podcasting. so many of these will add to the amount of time people will spend with tech and media and they are time stacking today. it's not just about what i'm doing now, it's about what i'm doing at the same time as something else. 2022, you say we will spend 12 hours and 32 minutes per day with tech and media. that is frightening. when do we eat, sleep, talk to our kids? michael: a lot of that comes -- what in terms of else are you going to be able to do with that time? a lot of what we look at his multitasking. it's the stolen moments in the
day where you may be doing something else. all of our analysis shows it will be people listening to something, watching something, surfing at the same time. all of the things people can do all it wants, and that it is where it is adding. otherrowding out so many activities. emily: heading into the holiday season, it is all about shopping. what about when it comes to e-commerce? michael: 2019 is the inflection point. it's the year in which growth dollars, from digital to e-commerce, are going to exceed growth dollars from traditional retailers globally. will traditional retail continue to grow, the growth in traditional bricks and mortars will be about 2% per year. the growth in e-commerce will be roughly 20% per year. it's the first time we see this crossover in terms of incremental spend to e-commerce.
here,ve other categories gaming, messaging, music. some it up. -- sum it up. michael: in gaming, that will move to the cloud. we will be able to play any game from any device. we are going to be able to see different ways in which people can pay for games. is theng, messaging dominant digital behavior today. ,oday, facebook controls facebook and tencent have most of the messaging platform. apple will continue to grow with i message -- imessage. as well. sports gambling is going to add roughly $30 billion in revenue to tech and media over the next three years. emily: all right, activate ceo, michael wolf.
emily: last month, critic, made a deal to kickstart its first expansion beyond the u.s. and canada. a creditny acquired reporting resource. the company is valued at $4 billion. here to discuss is the credit, ceo. will we see more m&a from you? >> it's hard to say but there is a big opportunity in the space. the you think about transformation of financial technology over the last 20 years, there has not been much. around the world, there are
opportunities to have a proconsumer company representing that interest. emily: you are a $4 billion company, so much more than a credit score, providing consumers with their credit score. talk to us about the breath of what you want to do here. kenneth: if you think about digital transformation, you realize not much has changed. there are banks, they are great, but expect more. the big thing in financial services is that there is this layer, credit volatility. credit karma has a lot of financial data. with that information, we can price them into the right products, determine whether they can get better pricing, determine whether they qualify for a product. emily: the credit industry is very vulnerable. it has lots of sensitive information. we have heard about this giant hack at marriott. half a billion people -- half a
million people. talk to us about what you're expecting on the security front. is it going to get worse? are you putting your armor on every day? kenneth: i think it will get worse. kenneth:it has gotten progressively worse and it will until companies have' security until companies have a priority of security first. you can either stick your head in the sand or be so fearful of everything that you won't do everything -- anything. there is a middle ground. having the right tools to protect people when bad things happen, tell people when bad things are happening, and also saying don't be afraid of everything online and getting loans. -- these not things are things going to make your life better, you can't stick your head in the sand.
for the last 11 years, credit karma said security was our number one priority. it is the one thing continually keeping me up every night. that is why we put a large security team against what do do, and why we have been in business for so long. emily: you are pushing into insurance. what can we expect from you in 2019? kenneth: insurance is another one of those frustrating areas. everybody knows if you spend five minutes or 15 minutes, you can save x percent. that's frustrating if you have to do that six or seven times. earlier this year, we launched a product called our insurance up. when you register, you can click two things and we will give you 20 or 30 quotes based on state regulatory filings and consumer data. you can get comparisons without having to put in the questions. only: given all the data
consumers, what about savings and investing? kenneth: our vision of credit karma is definitely focusing on the borrowing side. we have over 85 million members on our platform. they tend to be younger, and today, they are mostly borrowers. over time, they move to the net savers. consumers find the best rates for borrowing, highest of for savings, and having insurance as a middle hedge is a real opportunity. emily: your name has, for an ipo candidate in 2019. should be watching for that? kenneth: we have been around for 11 years and it has never been a primary objective. emily: the 2019 be the year? kenneth: any your could have been the year. doing things like tax preparation, investing in the u.k., and other strategies might be much smarter. given the secondary and private markets, and liquidity there, we can stall the problem.
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mom. ♪ emily: this is "bloomberg technology." i'm emily chang in san francisco. we turn to our conversation on apple. he's cut the price target to $280 a share, citing concerns about i-phone demand. the sad thef stories about apple lead you to do this? speaking if you look at what is going on with apple, the company sounded an alarm when they reported in the september quarter they indicated a weakness in emerging markets, ussia, india and
turkey. since that point in time and what caused us to adjuster estimates as you had a number of suppliers for apple cut their forecast. so, it clearly looks like unit wees, atweaker than anticipated. emily: how does this ruling in on older iphones, apple saying they have to settle with qualcomm. commerce does that impact your outlook? tom: i would tell you that is affected. but the way i think about that is initially, there was a dispute where apple was whatsting that unlike qualcomm was saying, it was all systems go. they were still selling all the devices in china. yes, i think it is important but not necessarily a determining factor in our most cautious tone. emily: i have a chart on
bloomberg showing how dominant apple is on the iphone. 2/3 of their revenue as the company tries to shift to more of a services driven company. how many iphones do you think the company is going to sell this quarter and next? tom: originally we were projecting less than 1% growth. or half a percentage of growth. now we are looking for a 3% decline on a year-over-year basis and next quarter meaning the march quarter, we are looking for another very small year over year decline. the way i think about apple stepping back is that they are still an iphone dominated company, 62% of their revenue in their fiscal 18 came from the iphone. emily: historically, how unusual is that in a holiday quarter after they've just revealed new iphones? quite unusual.
i do think what we are seeing here is very unusual for apple. and the reason that we still are holding out some hope on the december quarter is in the higher average seller phrases -- selling prices. the least expensive new iphone, more expensive than last year's. there is some silver lining for apple in the december quarter to the extent that higher selling prices for their devices may enable them to offset some pressure from lower unit sales. emily: at what point far out in the future do you think apple will be significantly less, 2/3 of its sales coming from the iphone? tom: i don't necessarily think that is going to be a bad thing. looking at apple's product roadmap, you have to mac to the ipod, to the iphone to the ipad. i think the way i think about
apple's product roadmap in that future point time warner iphone is less than half their sales, it means there will be new apple is selling that will generate a larger percentage of revenue. i do not think that is necessarily a bad thing. but clearly today apple with 62% of sales coming from smartphones as heavily dependent on that one product. emily: and a lower price target from you. thanks so much for stopping by. meantime, delivery startup instacart is cutting ties with whole foods. it will stop allowing customers to order from whole foods. 13.7 billion acquisition of whole foods has made the relationship complicated. is it just another example of amazon edging out everyone? joining us to discuss is bloomberg tech's analyst and our senior analyst. ellen, is this the deathblow for instacart? you see a lot of instacart
shoppers at whole foods. >> that's a reflection of how long may have had this relationship. it was the first national partnership that instacart signed. instacart and whole foods were tight. it has gotten awkward. in particular after last year's acquisition from amazon. so, i think it goes to say it is thea end, but it has been capstone for a long and sad breakup for those who have in following their relationship because after the acquisition things got really awkward. emily: talk to us about the line. >> in the early days of the instacart-whole foods partnership this was something where the two companies worked hard to make sure that shoppers were able to move quickly through the store. that meant doing things like setting up space in hopeful stores for instacart shoppers to pack and sort groceries and putting designated check outs for instacart shoppers. ce amazon started
delivering whole foods goods come it got weird. so, amazon started having the amazon shoppers go through the aisles of health food stores, aisles.eir dedicated we wrote a story earlier this year about how all of a sudden the space that used to be for instacart is now for amazon shoppers in the whole foods stores. and the instacart shoppers of being shoved down stairs or into the stairwell. playing out int the stores that amazon is really trying to shove instacart out of it. both sides could tell this partnership is not going to continue. even though instacart and whole foods have signed a five-year contract in 2016, before the acquisition. emily: looking at the bigger picture, walmart is still the delivery groceries and but amazon has made progress. from my own shopping experience, it was a little rocky at the beginning. it has actually gotten much better.
so, where is this going? >> here, if you look at the instacart example over here, basically for them to scale into groceries they have to figure out delivery somehow. you can't grow double digits with physical traffic. it was sort of inevitable the friction. now, one strategy we have seen from amazon is to figure out how to make delivery work because consumers are not ready to order online for groceries and really rely on them. you are seeing these communions like stores that are going after the amazon growth stores, strategy and things like that, and they're going after this move onck and pay and product categories at 3000 stores they are planning to expand. th airport expansion. eyou are going to see that amazon is going to try to figure out what we can use to change consumer behavior. grocery delivery. with whole foods, we consider it best single-digit growth. until they figure out the
delivery angle -- what instacart was in the wake of that, they can't grow. emily: is everybody else on the for instacart? can they survive this? there was always this question, is instacart just the new -- >> the weathe question of whethr instacart can survive is that they question on whether they will strive or end up going in a different direction being acquired. they have told us many times that in the year and a half since amazon bought whole foods that have seen other large retailers like kroger, publix, wegman's these are big across the u.s. sign up with instacart because they suddenly fear being squeezed out by amazon and grocery delivery. they actually have made quite a case that the amazon acquisition of whole foods has been good for instacart's business. whether that is true, we will
have to see how it plays out. emily: we're continue to chart the grocery wars with both of you. thank you so much. for stopping by. williamsofounder evan has expressed interest in buying new york magazine. williams has spoken about a deal with the ceo of the magazine's parent company new york media. not comment on the deal specifically but said we are going to significantly increase our, meaning mediums, investment in original editorial. the conversation show how serious medium is about beefing up its content as it conent.tions to a con tent. while the e-commerce giants have gotten online shopping down to a science, there is one issue that irks customers -- shipping delays. we will discuss next. this is bloomberg. ♪
that means retailers are working overtime. so, too, are delivery companies making sure that customers get their packages on time. to 16stal service expects billion pieces of mail over the holidays including 900 million packages that according to adobe a, online sales are expected to increase 15% from last year, making those handling packages really feel the pressure. joining us in this week's retail transform segment, ryan peterson an international shipping company that provides real-time tracking. parent company of this network is an investor. are you getting any sleep right now ? always sleep great. emily: if i get a package from amazon, how is flex board involved? ryan: it connects the brand that designed the product and their factory. the goods from the
factory to amazon settlement centers. emily: so, what trends are you seeing this season different from last season? big: you are always in a rush to get everything in but what is unique this year is the tariffs. there is this looming deadline of increased tariffs. brands are struggling to get goods in. the trump administration relax those tariffs. emily: they are still potential threat. rayn: we have seen big increases and tariffs. emily: the big increases in tariffs, what if you see as a result? flexport imports 1% of imports by ocean and our average tariff was 2%. we are now close to 7%. we've already seen a big hike there. second,
production out of china into southeast asia. seeing surges in cambodia, vietnam and places like italy and turkey are having manufacturing surges. emily: how easy is it to switch your manufacturing base? ryan: for apparel, where the supply chain is simple in terms of what components go into it, it is not the hardest thing. a lot of brands are finding it relatively straightforward. if you have a lot of electronics with our components and you need other suppliers, it is very hard. south china is where most of those are base. emily: on the consumer side, has that made your business, is that a headache for you or is that great for business, free shipping? it means more more people are buying more and more online without concern for the cost. interesting about free shipping is that the expectation is two day delivery. emily: for free. hour you see two
delivery. it looks different from a supply chain perspective. need to have pockets of inventory everywhere instead of one central distribution center in the middle of the country. it's changing the landscape, making a hard for company to keep track of all of that. where's all the inventory? that is something we help with. managing that by email is hard. emily: tell us how you, how that impacting you? there is more packages than ever and to live free faster than ever. supply chain manager and you have to have inventory positioned all over and be ready to meet the need, that is something we do, give them that visibility. how can i track it all? emily: what he think about the increased focus on conditions for workers in the warehouses, who are responsible for getting a package from point a to point b? ryan: you see people actually kind of like those jobs and they
are reliable and good sources of income. of course, it's hard for us on the outside. i would not want to work in a warehouse. but those people do it and they are fairly well-paid. there is a shortage of workers still. people are struggling to get enough workers in. amazon has raised wages to try to help increase demand. emily: do you think something like these amazon workers who are pushing to unionize, will that trickle down to prices, to consumers? ryan: of course. any increase in labor cost either is going to hit their bottom line or has to pass through higher prices. or maybe they invest more and automation. emily:so, what do you see for shipping trends next year, in 2019, more packages, more technology, continued political and economic uncertainty likely? tariffs are going to be the biggest question. is it going to get resolved? are we going to have 25%
tariffs? there is a lot of uncertainty. and brands don't know what to do. do you change your supply chain or wait two years and way for a new president the delivery drones going to be ready? ryan: there is a walgreens near my house. i would love to press a button and a drone drops me a snickers bar. emily: always good to have you on the show. ahead, softbank is plowing hundreds of millions of dollars into a u.s. bio startup. what they are planning to do with the funding next. this is bloomberg. ♪
network facebook said a software bug gave developers broader access to the photos of a large satcwath of user, 6.8 million users. facebook apologized and says i'' s been fixed. it's alerting people who have been potentially affected. $400ank is invested million and a robot powered micro-factory. they make a lot of things, revamping agricultural and industrial products using a.i. powered robots who genetically engineer better microbes. ymergenrepresent -- z represents multiple opportunities. talk about the range of stuff you make. >> yeah, so, we basically work fromdustry ranging industrials and chemicals through agriculture and things that might touch consumer
products. it all comes back to the idea that we live all of us in a petrochemical world where the table, the coatings on the lens are made from hydrocarbons. that's a limited palette. a box of crayons. eight. eight characters to start with. with that broader palette of colors, we can create products, materials, molecules that are really functional properties that, as you said, transform whole parts of the real economy. emily: i one to give you an idea of how diverse your portfolio is. products including sun screen that does not harm coral reefs. how do you decide what to target? >> in two ways. a limitedwe have number of application areas and sectors we focus on developing our products for, for home and
personal care and consumer electronics. and then we work with partners across a broad range of industries helping them develop products they are interested in. there is a lot of stuff the people would like to make. to know what they want to do but they do not how to get there. we can design and engineering optimize these microbes which would be perfect microscopic chemical factors to make the molecule they want at a price that works for them. emily: the u.s. department of defense is a customer. who else? >> i can't talk about specific customers. we tend to operate -- on a privacy standpoint. we are working, most of our customers are fortune 500, fortune 1000 companies, working in industrials, co, goals, advanced materials, ags and some medicine. emily: the big story about softbank has been the ties with saudi arabia.is that something you considered ? >> no. we have got a long-standing relationship with softbank. they led the investment in the b
round. we've work closely and with great success with softbank. our part of for this round based on the strata that relationship. their relationship with saudi arabia, we never see it or feel it or touch it. yet, you are dealing with other moral congeries. moral quandaries, bio weapons and opioids. >> first of all, anybody who is running a technology company and it needs to be thoughtful about what they are going to do. we have a moral obligation to be thoughtful about the use of our technology. in a broad-based platform, you can use it for anything. we think there are so much stuff to do in the world. we do not want to do anything that would cause harm to the world. doing?what you not >> bio weapons, we are not going to do opioids. we wouldn't do anything that would cause harm to the world. emily: you have a massive power
and opportunity. as you acknowledged. what are some things that you believe can do good in the world? that, onee believe very partial about our platform we get to replace hydrocarbon derived molecules with stuff that is more sustainable. that is long-term in incredibly powerful and good for the world opportunity. we think that it's going to happen one product at a time. we're delighted to be able to come up with better crop protection agents that are more sustainable and healthier for the planet. i think we try to take a holistic view about how we will be held. w-- be helpful. we want to have an impact in the best way to do that is to engage with the existing players. emily: how do you plan to use this money? >> we're growing. three big uses. the first is, we have grown our business 5x.
we want to continue growing that. that takes capital. the second is, we have a super exciting pipeline of our own products we want to develop so we can take new partners. lastly, we have a platform. it's a platform that integrates some of the most events technologies. machine learning, advanced automation, genomics, molecular biology. in any platform based business you have to continue investing or you will fail. we're going to continue developer platform. emily: fascinating stuff. thank you so much for stopping by. that does it for this edition of "bloomberg technology" monday we have an excuse of interview with jason draghi, vice president and head of uber. everything the startup has. bloomberg tech livestreaming on twitter. follow tic toc on twitter. i'm emily chang. have a wonderful weekend,
david: now when you are the head of the imf, do people recognize you? christine: it is a lot of ego food, which i take and store for the hard days. david: how did you get to be the head of the entire firm? christine: it is often in those situations that a woman appears. david: so with synchronized swimming, you became a member of the national team of france. christine: yes, but i did european championship and many international events. david: did you experience a lot d