tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg March 4, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
many times popularly they go back to the 2800 level. caroline: and we closed below it. we are currently at on the s&p 500, down by 0.4%. many worry this is more scarlet: we seem to be perpetually in search of a catalyst. joe: failing on the third mandate. scarlet: this drop in the s&p 500 all caps 14%. it's been a month since we've seen such a sizable move. on its own, a .4% drop is not that big. were solidly green in the morning so that makes the selloff feel a little more intense, it's such a notable reversal from the opening bid. caroline: let's dive deeper into the action with abigail. abigail: i'm looking at the
technicals. we see the heart of the range over the last year between 2600 and at 2800 where the sellers have pushed in with a few exceptions, obviously. both sides got a little overexcited. 20 800 was rejected, but we are also looking at what is called an outside candle, suggesting more volatility is ahead. importantly, the reason 2800 itself turned out to be the magic that in, there's more nuanced level, sophisticated oflers waiting for the idea selling the news. breaking the near-term uptrend, suggesting we could just drop back down for 2600. supporting the idea is that we are rounding down from overbought levels. more volatility could be ahead for stocks. reports fourth-quarter
earnings come on tuesday they already announced holiday -- holiday sales were positive. it would be the seventh straight quarter of sales growth for target and we look at the blue line on that chart. that is gross margin and it is falling. investment in the business as well as rising freight and wage costs weighing on the margin at target. over the holidays they offered noe today shipping with minimum spent. that will have to have cost him. analysts investors are now used to sales growth will be looking for reassurance of profitability tomorrow. here's an interesting stat i learned today. about 20% of the u.s. medicare budget goes to treating patients with kidney disease. they have basically been to stocks that have been the
beneficiary of that. these two countries control kidney dialysis market. they are falling today on reports that the u.s. medicare services agency is looking for ways to reduce the cost they pay for these treatments. they are primarily looking for a way to move to in-home types of treatment that would be much less expensive than the clinics they currently have to use right now. today,ares falling american renal, a smaller competitor in the spaces also down today. cvs health would be one of the beneficiaries of these. cbs is one of the first companies to really challenge the two, moving into the in-home market as well as a couple of other big companies that are trying to disrupt the space. all those companies, keep an eye on. it's not clear where the medicare proposal is going to go , but a lot of folks are trying to get the cost down of these treatments. scarlet: fantastic insights
there on the micro stories in the markets. still with us is sean matthews and sarah. let's go to the macro for a moment. today we have stocks down and treasuries higher. it seems that treasuries have not gone the other way as stock. one of the not sold out more? have two different camps. you have the fixed income camp and the equity camp. the equity camp is a believer that the economy is always going to be good and things will get better, multiple expansion. the reality if you look at the fixed income side, people are cautious about what is going on in the marketplace and looking at global growth and what is going on there. that is a driver to what is really happening in the government space. there is a dichotomy. the fixed income market is right at this point in time. the equity market is that lofty levels. we were talking about
health care and proposals to reform health care. it is part and parcel of a broader, more aggressive move on the left that we see him on democratic politicians heading into this election. is that a thing you think is on people's minds? not trading on day today, but the idea that we could have a major leftward shift in fiscal policy? sean: absolutely. justine: salesforce has come out with its numbers. fourth-quarter revenue slightly ahead of estimates. ahead of the $.55 for the fourth quarter, ahead of what was quite significant increase in terms of a company that has zero sells. already an increase of 58%, so that's a significant beat for the fourth quarter. scarlet: it's all about bookings and what the company says in terms of how it sees business moving forward.
of course it has all kinds of repercussions for the rest of the cloud software space as well. joe: an incredible surge in the space over the last several months. there was a great opinion piece about all these names. salesforce up 2.5% after hours, of thet ease some concerns and even though expectations are high for them, they are still operating at that level. caroline: we will take on the earnings wrap up and whether that indicates or talks against those lofty levels. they had a great quarter, they beat their number after hours. scenariohere is a where people are concerned about those lofty levels. that is what is coming out of the marketplace. you think the market has a chance of coming down.
we seeing any positive trends in the earnings forecast? for while, stocks were going up in forecast for going down. what is happening with earnings expectations? data showslatest earnings expectations are leveling off. they are still around the same levels, coming down a tiny bit from where we were a couple of weeks ago but they are starting to level off. jpmorgan's john norman said this morning on bloomberg television that if we actually do get this deal, then we could start to see earnings upgrades start to roll in. that would be a new story. the new can think about a catalyst, not just in the form of a trade deal, but what it means for earnings growth and economic growth as well if that truly does happen. caroline: salesforce is not really living up to expectations when it comes to first-quarter expectations.
wants to see 3.7 billion dollars overall for the first quarter, which is an increase of about 23%. the market wanted higher, a slump from the previous year in terms of where we've seen it. joe: now we see the stock reacted negatively to the outlook, all 3% in after-hours. forget everything i just said. [laughter] sarah: we will just pretend that the last couple of minutes didn't happen. scarlet: you were talking about has stocks were overvalued. forget bonds and stocks, what about the energy market, commodities? a lot of people see oil as the leading asset class. itt signals are you seeing sending? sean: if we look at the global
economy, reasonable growth, small as it is now, we are probably almost at equilibrium. we just had a substantial decline put in place that wasn't unwinding of massive trade that was there versus natural gas. performed at how oil in the fourth quarter, that was a huge trade that most hedge unwoundd on and just it. if you look at oil over time, inflation adjusted, the averages in the high 40's. probably little higher than we should be but that is ok. joe: i want to get your take on what you see as the political winds. you said you could just feel it. is there point where that feeling feeds through the market? it's going to have ramifications to what is going on. if you look at investment capital, they are looking for opportunities. is going to be a real challenge.
if you look at modern monetary theory, which is unbelievable in my mind. if you look 15 years go, we were talking about teaser mortgages and how people could buy more house with a teaser mortgages. that is essentially what politicians are talking about today. money is cheaper today and it will stay cheap forever. that is a dangerous game to play when thinking about that. scarlet: a slippery slope. [laughter] great stuff, guys. that does it for the closing bell and for me. up next, "what'd you miss?" this is bloomberg. ♪
caroline: live from new york, i'm caroline hyde. the market shrug off any optimism on trade and closed up. joe: but the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: president trump warned the dollar is becoming too strong. china is accusing canada of spying and there may proceedings -- extradition proceedings for the leader of huawei. demonstrators took to the streets. just a quick recap of
earnings, sales force earnings are out, shares falling a little bit in after-hours trading. the company did miss on a couple of key metrics. fourth-quarter numbers came in slightly above analyst estimate, but it's the guidance that is giving investor some concern. coming in slightly below the average estimate on wall street. joe: president trump's attempt to blame jay powell for the u.s. economy is back in headlines. he said the u.s. dollars too strong and criticized powell as someone who likes raising interest rates. many investors and economists are learning to tune out the noise but the dollar continuing to strengthen today. our reporters are here with more. just from an economic perspective, is it fair to blame jay powell for the strengthening dollar, and is it fair to say
the dollar has been a drag on the u.s. economy? >> this is such an interesting time for this particular criticism to calm. certainly you could have made the case last year. the fed has just signal that it pause.ause -- on it is interesting that this is the conversation we're having. romaine: why are we having this conversation? why,erstand politically but when you talk to people in market, they don't seem as concerned about this. or in a phase where we are just making something out of nothing? think there's probably some serious political posturing going on here. there is a broader question about what happens with the dollar as the year goes on, thanks to global growth, and not necessarily because of the fed. has beeneconomy
outperforming its global counterparts. that is more true this year with germany and china slowing. how that plays out will be interesting. caroline: give us the inside track in turn of the fx response -- in terms of the fx response. what is happening in terms of what it means for the negotiations. the yuan gaining strength. hell are we set up for the dollar going forward? bearish ond to be the dollar right now. what else do you buy? growth in europe, china is slowing. trump's comments come against that backdrop, and also political uncertainties such as trade and brexit. all that should benefit the thatr going forward, given investors like to own u.s. assets in the face of uncertainty. wouldot that trump changes might on this, but does
it take off some of the cowl story? -- of the jay powell story? the fed consistently raising interest rates in 2018 was definitely part of the strong dollar rally that we saw last year. again, the fed has signaled they are pausing and now it is turning into a global growth, u.s. outperforming story. romaine: everyone still seems pessimistic, most forecasters saying the dollar will fall 4% or more from where we are currently. you talk about the carry trade, it was a great trade up until three or four weeks ago. now you're losing money on that. why are we supposed to believe that a strong dollar is in the cards for the u.s.? katherine: the dollar falls in and out of favor as a funding source for kerry trades. if you look at positioning on the dollar and there is a lag because of the government there is still plenty
of long dollar positions out there. you are seeing all this bearish south side research. people with money are still slightly bullish on the dollar. caroline: what about where we see the economy going forward? today we heard more stimulus potentially coming from china. int is the sentiment like the economists side of the equation as to how much we will see the u.s. continue to outperform? jeanna: what we know is that growth should still be above trend this year, not just the global picture and what is going on there, but the fact that we saw some fiscal stimulus from the trump spending changes coming online. 20 i think is the real question about u.s. growth -- 2020 is the real question. joe: there's a lot of political debate about expanding the deficit, some say we should be comfortable with it.
what do economists say is the relationship between deficits and dollar strength? em, we would say deficits are clearly that for the currency. sayou look at 2017 and increased spending and people attribute that to dollar strength. in the u.s., is there a connection between them? jeanna: there's been an interesting trend you've seen globally. it's not just a dollar story. you can talk about what people thought about interest rates and deficits. the used to be in unimpeachable japan,hat -- look at they have been running an extreme he hide debt to gdp ratio and they have essentially no inflation, and that is the problem. think a lot of these tried and true relationships are sort of under the gun right now. people are thinking about them in ways that have not been done in quite some time. caroline: the world has turned
upside down. we thank you both. let's look at what is happening to salesforce. more updates to their overall forecast. they seem to be saying they set inong-term revenue goal 2023. shares continue to be underperforming after-hours by 2.5%, coming off those lows, they were down as much as 4% at one point. storye: this was a growth along with the rest of that sector. it is value, i guess. caroline: this is bloomberg. ♪
caroline: let's look at what stories are trending across the universe. amazon is trying to persuade jeff bezos to provide backup day care, saying it is humane and will help recruit and retain female candidates. expensive.tribeca is bloomberg has a story on the new york neighborhood and its annual ranking of america's richest zip code. out all other new york city zip codes. tictoc on twitter is reporting that spacex canal ferry astronauts to an from the international space station after successful launch and docking of the dragon capsule. it's designed to eventually
.arry astronauts follow all the stories on your terminal on bloomberg and on tictoc on twitter. romaine: cloud computing stocks have been one of the best performers, the sector outperforming the broader market for some time now. we have a slew of earnings from a lot of the big cloud computing companies and sell force out today. a senior analyst for bloomberg intelligence, who joins us by phone. when i look at the sales first -- self -- salesforce are earning's, by any rational measure it would be considered a good thing. we're seeing the shares fall a little bit, predicated on the idea that growth, while still fairly high, is slowing from the pace that investors have come to expect. >> when it comes to a company like salesforce, when you look at sales or earnings growth, it's one of the better positioned companies in enterprise software.
all caps companies have done really well over the last 16-18 months. in our view is more function of valuation rather than fundamentals. most of the valuations for these companies are near all-time highs, it neared the 3-5-year medians. multiplet of compression happening here and not so much fundamental changes. joe: let's talk about the fundamentals a little more. we saw in the recent gdp report that q4 of last year, one of the best quarters in a long time for software investment as a share of growth. the secular story of more enterprises shifting operations to the cloud, third-party software. slowing down,at or is there still a lot of capital expenditure on that front? anarag: you have to take into
account the potential for overall tech spending to perhaps slow down a tiny bit in the second half. that is only on a relative basis. we think software spending will continue to be strong, but perhaps not as strong as 2018. aware, a lot of it is just relative strength compared to what happened last year. having said that, we have not seen any slowdown so far. single sell on it. the growth rate seem to be better than forecast, 25.8 billion dollars is what the bloomberg has been looking for. where does this company sustained growth? do people need to see 20% growth or can they live with 15%-20%? it has towould say
show 20% plus growth in the near they have bought a fair amount of assets and the need to show underlying growth rate over there. they are one of the better positioned companies in enterprise software. the have a strong portfolio of cloud products. dumpingsaw investors all the red-hot cloud companies. are they being undiscriminating, in your view? anurag: almost every cloud company in the infrastructure space is seeing a disproportionate amount of capital spending going to them. so they have been doing very well over the last 16-18 months. if there is any fear of macro slowdown, these guys get impacted straightaway. suppose a company is growing 25%, that is not good. caroline: always great to get your analysis.
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. in southeastern alabama, rescuers are searching for victims, combing through homes that have been smashed to their foundations and shredded metal that is dangling from trees. at least 23 people, including children, died when a tornado with winds of 160 miles per hour ripped through a rural community. president trump spoke about the tornado during a white house event today. trump: whole nation mourns for the more than 20 lives lost and for the heartbroken families they leave behind. i got reports on it this morning and was absolute devastation. it was just terrible. you look at the areas affected,
probably nobody made it out of that path. that path was brutal. the tornado that ripped through the town of poor guard was part of a powerful storm system that slashed its way across the deep south, -- the town of beauregard. venezuelan opposition later -- theer guaido landed at country's airport about 25 miles from caracas. hesaid in a tweet successfully pass through immigration checks. several ambassadors who support his leadership are at the scene when you write a letter has suspended russia's compliance with the landmark cold war treaty on nuclear missiles, last putin said he would pull
out of the agreement in response to a similar step by the united states. president trump said the u.s. withdrew because of fears of violations by the russians. a publicist for luke perry said the star has died. he was 52. his publicist said he died today after suffering a massive stroke last week. his family and friends were with him when he died. among them were his children, siblings, fiancé, and former wife. the publicist added that perry's family appreciates the support and prayers that were offered cents he was hospitalized last wednesday. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: now to asia ahead, and the huawei case is heating up. china has accused to canadians
of spying. is gearing upwei to sue the u.s. government according to the new york times. let's bring in shery ahn. let's talk about the corporate side first. what do we expect when they're looking to sue the u.s.? shery: it's launching a strong defense against not only the u.s. but all these allegations in canada as well. you are seeing huawei stepping up measures. the new york times reporting they will sue the u.s. government. this is publicly making the case or forcing the u.s. government to publicly make the case when the u.s. government for the past year will he has put the .ressure on huawei
we've seen the u.s. not only try butan the telecom company trying to persuade other governments to do the same. it interestingd that there has been seemingly no repercussions on the trade talks side of things from this action against huawei? when this info was first arrested, it was a major concern. it seems like the stories are on totally different tracks and not interacting at all. shery: did we hear from president trump himself that he could get involved with huawei? that has not really been the case. the first time we actually had heard about huawei the complaint, we thought -- about the huawei complaint, we thought it would take potentially years. could it be the thorn on the trade talks, but so far we haven't seen that. then again, we haven't seen
anything concrete, the trade talks as of yet. romaine: how important is this now? there was an interview with chuck robbins at cisco basically saying this is overplaying -- overblown. saying that huawei is not as dominant as people think, it's more of a team effort among companies and countries. is there too much focus on this between the u.s. and china on huawei itself? seine isuck robbins built on a combination of communication suppliers and despite everything we hear, i think that will be the case in the future as well. we will have a guest at 6:40 p.m. and this has been the focus, not only on huawei but also the case against zte. a key point right now is that
is ramping up the pressure against the u.s. government, fighting back come in canada as well over the extradition of its cfo, that it is sort of shooting itself in the foot because you don't want to come off as being belligerent , you want to come off as a good, calm partner. we've seen the rhetoric from china not only from the huawei side but from the government side with the prime minister in the past. romaine: thank you, shery. don't miss daybreak asia at 6:00 p.m. eastern. changing gears to south america, guaido returning to venezuela today. the opposition leader who has been declared acting president left the country last week in violation of a supreme court ordered travel ban.
he went to meet with vice president mike pence in the u.s. and shore up support across south-central america. in our reporter who's been recovering this. he came back to venezuela today and there was a lot of fanfare, people were fainting in the streets at the side of him. at the end of the day, his return really hasn't changed anything. venezuela is still in the position it was in three or four weeks ago, right? ben: that's right. 's trip comes to guaido to south america, he really came off as the head of state. the fact is once he gets back to venezuela, he cannot practically as maduroh as long maintains the military support he has. there's no sign of that changing in the near term. caroline: how bad is it for people on the street? more juniord that
officers probably are being affected by the issues that are affecting the entire population, just not the very top. ben: is certainly desperate on video that, the being two or hayride most briefly detained showed venezuelans desperate for food, going into dumpsters trying to feed themselves. the question is how much force maduro and his troops will continue to use. joe: what does it say that he wasn't arrested? ben: i think the most recent test of the euro government, -- of the maduro government, came a few weeks ago when the u.s. embassy, he threatened to turn the lights off and shut it down. he said he would give the embassy 72 hours to leave. some members of the mc decided to stay. after that, maduro backed down.
i think he understands the line that cannot be crossed and he understands that if he does touch guaido, it would lead to more foreign action. romaine: we haven't really seen any action, despite the support guaido has gotten, we haven't gotten any whiff that there would be any sort of military action against the maduro government. that seems to be the line that has to be crossed if he is gone to do anything. ben: the u.s. and the trump administration have been very careful in trying to keep the decision in the hands of the , whogroup and guaido pressed for a nonmilitary means of transitioning government. so far, that has not led to a transition, but they have been very careful in trying to understand the history of latin american intervention and how they could potentially weaken guaido's hand forcing too harsh
. jennifer, i will start with you. people have been talking about the rush of institutional money into crypto for a long time, and it doesn't seem to be happening. what is missing? funds,r: we see hedge platforms, all on our and we are incredibly excited to support them. the reasonthink you're seeing reticence, and i've talked to a lot of people about this, legitimate investors are attracted to the idea of cryptocurrency, the idea of the blockchain, but they feel there is not enough protection and institutional structure that would allow them that safety. >> what we aim to bring is something that is an into end solution. one of the challenges for institutions it you have to assemble all the pieces yourself, you want to think about all the things having
exchange relationships. part of what we think is missing is that in to end solution worklight can go one place and have a relationship and navigate the entire landscape with one counterparty. the same a you would have that relationship in the traditional securities world is part of what is missing, to answer that question. caroline: how many did their need to be, because this is a competitive space. the infrastructure is being built and by many big players out there. softwarempetitors are only. the big difference with tagomi, we have a prime rockridge model, so you only need an account with us and you can trade it all the sources around the world globally. that makes a big difference for folks. joe: there are so many cases of people holding their crypto with some third-party and then it disappearing, whether it's the founder of the brokerage died --
how do people feel comfortable that their crypto is safe in your hands? >> we partner with a number of custodians that we consider to be best in class. from our position we can choose those. each has a unique set of capabilities. part of our job is to advise clients at here is how we see the landscape, we understand it at great that and we choose different custodians for the capabilities. you hearing any concerns about the type of people who are using crypto? there is still perception that the users of most cryptocurrency may not be the most upstanding people. jennifer: are investors have been in the space for a very long time. by them was founded founder of coinbase. they have a long-term view on the space. pantera was one of the first
funds in the space as well, and bitcoin. they take a long-term view. they are used to folks having perceptions, but we are excited to bring more price transparency and things that folks have been worried about. we are bringing that solution to the space now. joe: it seems like the custody component is a huge stumbling block. you don't want to tell the partners, i lost the keys and it is all gone. beyond that, what is the next best thing? is there regulatory aspect that needs to help people be comfortable? >> i think the next big concern is market structure. it has largely been built for the retail investor. if you want to put to work hundreds of thousands of dollars and millions of dollars navigating a complex market structure, it's a challenge. , you institutional user would have to open accounts at a
number of different places and choose where the best price was at a given time. we also have the option of going to the over-the-counter market. although's choices for the in user, we simplify into one choice. -- all those choices for the end user. caroline: jennifer, how difficult is it as an institutional player to go about executing a trade? all theed that transactions are done by skype. the infrastructure is still holding up. talk us through how much a big trade, how long that would even take. jennifer: it has been hard in the past. you have stitch together a number of different things. as an institution, it is just not what you would expect. is tof our goal at tagomi bring that technology you would expect in any other security, you can do a large trade with us
very quickly right now. we have the solution now, we have hedge funds, very traditional players initiating large trades on our platform right now. caroline: great to get your expertise, thank you very much. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. bloomberg has learned a sale could be announced as soon as march. they agreed to buy liberty global's state. level one example will move to a computer-based test in 2021. it may be good news for generation z. a poll conducted for wedding 5.5% of found that only those surveyed believe their parents will pick up the whole
cap for the wedding. say their parents will pay for everything. so don't depend on the bank of mom and dad. i'll was thought that seemed kind of arcade. just have a cheap wedding. romaine: just to create their own experience and not do the traditional thing. the traditional thing costs a lot of money. the nontraditional thing can be whatever you want. caroline: i think the nontraditional things can be just as expensive as traditional things. caroline: you are a high class person. city hall and chick-fil-a. caroline: barbecue, maybe not champagne so much. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
he required -- he retired and just -- he spoke with us just prior to his retirement from newport beach, california. >> there are things that can -- the probabilities of generating a historical algorithm are much less than they were. >> so the era of outperformance isn't over, it is what? >> it is certainly diminished. it's harder to isn'tat the stock market a bear market. it is easier to say 0% interest , that bonds can basically
do no better. the 10 year treasury over the had an information 30 or 40 basis points, just holding it in a bull market and rolling the yield curve down to a nine year, produced structural alpha. yield at 14 or 15% now. certainly from the standpoint of a bond investor, information ratios and all for generation which in part over the past 30 years was generated by the market itself. are pimco or blackrock or wherever. the opportunity to circumvent, and you would think much of that
transfers over to the equity market, but it hasn't happened yet. >> what about structural inefficiencies? investors saving structural inefficiencies they used to generate alpha are themselves vastly diminished or gone altogether. do you agree? there not sure which one -- inefficiencies in volatility markets, for example, or the basis between cash and futures and treasuries. or even something a little more abstract, like moving the guard around what your clients are prepared to accept in the total return strategy. requires athat statement that markets have gone about as far as they are going, ofm the standpoint
technological progress or new products, which is always dangerous because there will always be something. pimco, one ofe of the reasons why pimco did so well wasn't necessarily from the genius of bill gross are the investment committee or any other people. of newfrom recognition products and a willingness to jump on board the train when we had confidence that the products were credit worthy. >> like mortgages, for example? investors basically would not touch them in the 1970's. our accounting department did not know how to figure the principal on the interest. there were complaints up lenny. cheap.ngs were so we got in early.
we got into financial futures 1980'srly, in the early when people and clients thought treasury bonds and treasury gold futures were akin to soybeans. the wave of the future. but the spreads were enormous in terms of the value. and on and on, with tips and global bonds. , retired bill gross portfolio manager. don't miss this tomorrow, mark carney testifies with the house of parliament economic affairs committee. joe: and i will be watching more economic data, new home sales for december. romaine: and china's annual national people's congress opens in beijing.
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emily: i'm in lee chang in new york, and this is "bloomberg technology." cfo istion, the huawei suing canada, alleging she was wrongfully detained. will this set off another diplomatic firestorm? plus the countdown is on, tesla announces the date to unveil its model y crossover. is demand really there? hundreds of amazon employees are