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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  March 8, 2019 1:30pm-3:30pm EST

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nearly two dozen people. the massive twister slammed into the town with 170 mile-per-hour wind, leveling everything in its path. it was one of at least 38 tornadoes confirmed to touchdown across the southeast in a deadly weekend outbreak. the democratic-controlled house approved legislative -- legislation aimed at reducing the role in big money in politics and strengthening ethnic stance. >> hr one restores the people's faith that government works for the public interest, the people's interest, not the special interest. that faith, that confidence is a treasure that is fundamental to a democracy that people believe. little chance in the republican run senate where mitch mcconnell says it will not come up for a vote, and the white house issued a veto
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threat. the u.k. already rejected the european union's latest offer before it was announced. irishu. would allow the backstop to apply only to northern ireland rather than the whole united kingdom. a british negotiator had already dismissed the idea on tuesday with theresa may calling the idea unacceptable. norway took a half step toward devasting oil and gas stocks. it has given the go-ahead to spare -- to sell companies while sparing the producers. the finance minister says that the goal is to remove the vulnerability of the country's wealth to a permanent oil price. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at "tictoc" on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark, and this is bloomberg.
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>> live from the world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. >> live in toronto, i am amanda lange. we are joined by our bloomberg audiences, and here are the top stories from around the world. shale, the u.s. economy added the fewest jobs in february 2017 even as wage gauge cited -- pointed to a tighter labor market. the prime minister is trying to do damage control in the wake of a scandal. breakup, elizabeth warren wants to split companies amazon,ebook and calling them anticompetitive. let us get a quick check on the major averages, and we have seen
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real reaction to some economic job that includes the forure, surprisingly weak the u.s. and we have seen that across the board, the s&p weak in every subgroup. the industrials are leading the way, but big tech and oil are standouts. he mentioned that decision by norway that is having an effect. we are some -- we are seeing some of the biggest names. the s&p 500 we are bumping around the 200 day moving average. the surprise was is that if this is an anomaly or not. this weakness is setting people back. vonnie: i am looking at that streak on a charge, which you can see at g tv , which shows we are down for the first week in six. week,efore the last down
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there were four up weeks, a sign that there is a bearish quick sale ahead. it is not just about the u.s., we had pretty concerning data out of china. 20.7%, and the interesting thing about this is the last time we saw this was 2016, and there was a different leader and a new year holiday. we do not know if this is attached to the lunar new year, but either way we are down. it shows negotiators between u.s. and china just what is at stake. we also had data from the university of chicago and the chinese university of hong kong suggested that chinese growth is to percentage points lower. keep all of that in mind as we turn back to the u.s. with the payroll shock. hiring in february missing all estimates, and 20,000 jobs added. of the
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economy. for a read on what the number means and what the other numbers mean, let us bring in tracy mcmillion. so, it was a big shock for a moment, and before we looked at the rest of the data. it was a question of what to ask. what were you asking yourself? tracy: the first question was am i seeing the right number. i did the same thing last month, so you have to take january and february together and say that both of these months were probably anomalies. the three-month trend is strong for hiring, and with the unemployment rate going down, effects, thetether trend is higher. we should note that we a number that did not
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signify a turning point, but because the fed has said that we will wait and see, and we know the history of hikes that they overshoot every time. does this add credibility to the idea that that was the end? jobse: we do think that will continue to strengthen through the rest of this year, and that the u.s. economy is going through a soft patch. things could start to turn around in the second half, especially if we get resolution to a trade deal. we think it is possible that the federal reserve could raise interest rates one more time, probably in the second half, and be done for this cycle. atnie: the 10-year yeild is 2.6123, and is not budging today. you saw that earlier, but it is not recovering any of that. tracie: we think yields could go ofto 2.75 within a range
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is ourd 3.25, the 3% middle ground. amanda: you have some concerns about both china and europe. when you are looking the -- at the investments that you like, are you looking at businesses that have exposure to that market? tracie: emerging markets are one of our favorite spots. including china, of course. we see about 7% upside to the emerging markets based on our calculations. we are moving from a more favorable position in the u.s. market, and cutting that back to a neutral position. we are taking some of those gains. we have seen 10% or 20% gains, and we are taking some of that and turning it into cash. we think we are going into a volatile period.
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and we think there will be a time when we can redeploy that cash. amanda: am i right in that you are favoring financials. tracie: we do. we expect interest rates to move higher into the second half of this year. also, we continue to think that evaluations on financial -- the valuations on financials look good. vonnie: what are you anticipating to do with the cash? tracie: it gives us optionality to look at different classes as we progress, but more than likely we will redeploy it into equities. we are underweight small-cap equities, and that is a potential place for more cash to go to, in addition, large cash. vonnie: thank you for rejoining us and happy international women's day. with the 10 year anniversary of u.s. stock bull market is coming up this weekend. romaine bostick takes us through
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this record run. romaine: by the most popular yardstick, the start of the bull market is pegged to its closing price on march 9, 2009. it closed at 676.53 that day, the low point of the market. the next day, a new bull run would take root with the s&p rallying within two weeks and 65% by the end of the year. despite the gains, it was not until march 28, 2013 that the s&p recouped its losses and set a record high. than&p has surged more 300% since its low in 2009, and an annual equivalent return of 18%. with the s&p correcting six times, and the most severe in the summer of 2011. on august 8, the s&p file --
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valve ticks .6%, the single worst day since the aaa cattle -- credit rating was cut. >> united states of america credit rating reduced. united states long-term rating to aa plus. romaine: it would eventually rebound and become the largest on record. equity values have managed to soldier on. a strategyorecast track has the s&p finishing 2019 at a level of 2889, equating to levelsgain from current and a 15% run-up from last year. amanda: still ahead. it is international women's day and the u.n. is kicking off a new initiative. we are talking with one of the members. ♪
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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets, i am vonnie quinn. amanda: i am amanda lange, enter want so -- in toronto. newu.n. is unveiling a global initiative called she innovates. it is aimed at supporting women access to resources. our next guest is a member of the alberta chapter. we welcome rhonda ambrose. great to have you with us. just practically speaking, what will it do for women when we talk about empowering them? >> from a symbolic level, i am
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one of 100 women, global leaders who will be advocating and promoting a message of gender empowerment. we will be focusing a chapter in alberta and hope to have chapters across canada. on the most practical level, it is putting in place programs and resources to support women who are working on issues. best practices and talking about what works in different parts of the world. at a very practical, basic level, it is about supporting know, and i think, as you we know through mentor ship and leadership, that is a way to support young women. itnie: isn't it amazing that is really only now that this discussion is gaining roman -- momentum? it feels like we have had this discussion for decades. canada has a great tradition of elect thing women to political
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positions. tell us about your experience and whether it was a novelty for you to be elected, and what changes need to happen for it to be a nonevent? completeis still not a not event. we have definitely broken gender barriers. i looked at some of the statistics that i think about all the time. 30% of young women think they have the ability to lead. there is a confidence gap, and this is what it is about. we need to think about mentoring young women, not intended up at the united states. we need to empower them to believe that they have what it takes to lead a country or a company. listed,he companies none of them have a female ceo. we have a long way to go. there is a lot of successes, but we have a long way to go to make sure that the next generations has no gender barriers. amanda: we have a government
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that prided itself on having women in cabinet. why so many? because it is the year that it is and this is how it goes. he is losing cabinet ministers and is it -- and it is seen as a gender issue. is that true, or is the scandal totally separate? rona: i think we have to make sure that we respect women's decisions for what they say they are making them for. in this situation, it is based on principle, and not gender. powerful,hat they are intelligent leaders in canada, resonates with a lot of women because of how they have been treated. some see the way they have been potential a veiled, nuanced form of sexism, in other instances, outright sexism. it does play into the gender issue that women face as leaders
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and when they go into politics. there is still a lot of sexism that women face in public life. having said that, these women are making their decisions based on intelligent, rational decision-making. let us make sure we respect the decision they are making. vonnie: what is the right way to get more women into the c suite. in europe, certain countries have mandates. in the u.s. there are certain initiatives that encourage it strongly, there is no government sponsored mandate. how do you do that? how do you make sure that it happens? testing shows that the more women they are, the more there are in the pipeline. rona: there are so many women in the pipeline that we should not be talking about that. i have come to the realization that we have to stock -- stop talking and start doing.
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we need to respect companies in north america and around the world to start hiring women and promoting them to get into the c suite. we know they are there and they are accomplished, capable women ready to lead companies. we are still not moving the needle. for a long time, i was opposed to quotas. i want to compete on an even playing field, like most of the women i know and work with. something has to change, because we actually now see the latest research coming out that women on boards is dropping, and yet we have so many programs across north america, and around the world including quotas. we really need are male and female leaders to step up and start to be extremely active. vonnie: good luck with your event. ambrose, the rona former leader of canada's
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opposition. coming up, the tech lash becomes a 2020 issue. why why -- why one democratic senator is calling to break up tech companies. ♪
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amanda: this is bloomberg markets. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn in new york. the tech lash has become a 2020 issue. warren iswarning -- proposing to break up amazon, facebook, and alphabet. she laid out her policy position in a media post writing this. "big tech companies have too much power over our economy, society, and democracy. they have used our private information for profit. personal businesses
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have stifled innovation." let us bring in our tech reporter. does she have a report -- does she have a point, is there too much of a monopoly? >> i think a lot of people that will be voting will be thinking that. this is not a new issue. there have been conversations about breaking up the big tech companies. it has been really gaining steam over the last couple of years in tandem with privacy concerns that we have been talking about. this is the first time that it has been articulated in a clear way. elizabeth warren named specifically the parts of the companies that she would split away, and she has outlined this vision of how it could be done. i do not think this has been articulated clearly by a major politician to this point. amanda: so far, she is occupying a specific place in the spectrum. her asll see
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antibusiness or anti-capitalist. that could bea picked up elsewhere? there is a growing sense in europe about the power that some of these companies have the marketplace. could this gain traction? gerrit: the european regulators have been on this much more aggressively for years. they have been able to land sizable fines against companies like google, but not necessarily break them up. because they are american companies, those threats become serious. elizabeth warren is saying that there were some acquisitions, or example facebook buying instagram that should not have been allowed. she would appoint people who would unwind those acquisitions. this would be highly disruptive. vonnie: this reaction to nothing the management care and hmos, and every time health care came up. it seems like the market was
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thinking we might have to deal with a democrat in office next, we did not see that with text shek -- tech stocks when came out with this issue. gerrit: i think the market is aware that this is early, and one candidate out of a field of many that will be a very long and difficult primary season for the democratic party. there is no guarantee that elizabeth warren will win it, and i think the latest polls are showing that kamala harris is the one people are circling around. it will be a huge fight and who knows what will happen. if anyone claims to know who will win, they do not know who they are talking -- what they are talking about. i think wall street should take this seriously. policiest means specifically never get enacted, the fact that they are on cnn, and they will be talked about during the debates, but for the
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mainstream people, i think people on wall street need to be talking about this. if it were to become a political issue for the everyman, it is interesting when you are talking about antitrust legal issues and tech companies that -- that people still like. amanda: do you think tech company should self regulate? gerrit: you have seen in terms of privacy, the tech companies trying to get ahead saying that they will be changing policies and be a little bit stricter. some of that needs to come with a grain of salt, because it helps tech companies to say, facebook saying that we will be private and encrypt all of your chats and be the only ones being able to see your data and still sell you ads. tech companies were not surprised, but on a bit of a back foot and not responding through their trade groups and being measured. antitrust has been a conversation and they have been pushing back on it. amanda: thank you so much for
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that. vonnie: it is obviously international women's day and i want to give a shout out to canada, the whole of canada, because it is a lot easier for a ,oman to get to lead a division at least of a bank in canada than in the united states. women in the highest ranks of canadian banks much more likely. the six biggest banks in revenue-generating operations. amanda: we should note, we have more women in senior executive positions. it may be an even vote. from toronto and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. president trump's chief economic advisor says the white house will not find a trade deal with china for the sake of helping
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the economy in the short term. there he kudlow tells bloomberg the president will only agree to a good deal with the united states across the board. >> if they are not in america's not acceptnd he will it. don't read me bearish, i'm not bearish. neither is the president. the idea of a quick deal to get a pop in the stock architect -- i just want to strenuously disagree with that point of view. mark: kudlow added the administration mains cautiously optimistic about negotiations andit is up to president xi his team to bring an end to the trade war. the top republican says he expects congress and the public to only get a short summary of robert mueller's findings of the russia pro. the georgia congressman met with attorney general william barr on the matter last week. it may take time for bar to resolve issues whether
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investigative or privacy returns remain confidential. venezuela is without power. it is raising tensions in a country already on edge from continued political turmoil. the socialist government lasted the power failure as a so-called electrical war directed by the united states. british labour party leader jeremy corbyn says labor will not be voting for prime minister theresa mays -- prime minister vote next week. >> we will be voting to take no deal off the table. we will be putting our .roposals, our five pillars mark: prime minister may is defeatto prevent another
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for her brexit deal. she is asking the eu for concessions. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark trenton. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> 2 p.m. in new york and live. >> this is bloomberg markets the close appeared comes to anbble abrupt end after a $345 billion stock route. presidential candidate wants to break up amazon, google,
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facebook calling them anti-competitive. all that and much more coming up. scarlet: first a selloff on our hands. s&p has followed every day this weekend. it is the first time it has fallen for five straight days monday through friday since -- >> before trump. caroline: but president trump is not worried about china. scarlet: no he is not. they are not going to make any quick announcements on trade deals. s&p at a four-week low the low 2800. energy is the big drag here. down by 2.4%. the best performing sector if you can find one is food and staples. caroline: just one on the higher side. whether you are interested in searching behavior -- searching
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for havens, we are going into the end. the eu is playing hardball. scarlet: costco is the best performing. it is a gold scarf -- a gold star quarter. but second close look into equities. let's get a check from our reporters. >> starting with chinese stocks, they were on fire for most of the year. through thursday, better than any other market out there in the world. cut a bit of a reality check on friday. the shanghai deposits of falling 4.5%, the worst day has had all year. it close below the 3000 point level. all told we had a quarter of the individual members down 7% or more. it is worth pointing out that the huge monster rally we had up until thursday or friday was largely because of feet measures the chinese government had taken. a lot of the measures focusing
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the belief that it might have .ushed the market 73% of the shares of the index were in technical over block conditions as of thursday. that is a huge turnaround from just four weeks ago when 1% of the index was there. what happened today? chinese state-owned brokerage making a bearish call on one of the biggest insurers in the target. it was a call most investors interpreted as coming from up above in beijing, a sign the chinese government wants to rein things in. they want to make it more manageable of the long-term. time to break up google, amazon, and facebook. that is what democratic presidential candidate elizabeth warren posted in a blog post here the faang index down around one percentage point. it was down closer to 2% earlier. it trimmed the losses earlier,
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in atill at the lowest month. she wants to designate them as platform utilities saying this time to break up the new monopolies in order to create more competitive markets. the biggest take away could be the need to watch her polling numbers more closely as they may start to move markets. this is the real clear politics average poll. it has elizabeth warren in the middle of the pack, polling at about 7%. there is a long way to go to those 2020 primaries. >> you are watching tech come i am watching energy. the worst performing sector in the s&p 500 today. on pace for the worst day since the december 24 selloff. a lot has to do with the drop in oil prices. falling on concerns of global growth. at one point today, falling under $55 per barrel. off 1.6%. it's a double whammy for the stoxx because this follows news
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that norway sovereign wealth fund is cutting its exploration funding. occidental,s, bolero falling the most. 5%. they were two of the three largest shareholdings. that way in on the sector overall. perspectiveeat getting us all up to speed. let's go more into that u.s. markets and largely has been the jobs report today. -- lori, 20,000? is this something we need to be long-term worried about or a short-term which given the shutdown? numberainly is a weaker given what anybody expected. if you look at the total report there were positives. upper divisions in december and january. in the three-month trend, we are 200,000 jobs per month.
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wage gains are coming in fairly strong. there were some things for you to like in the report as well. scarlet: there were things to like. at what point does the market look past data? because it is so backwards focus focused.kwards looking at pmi has been a global issue. lori: housing was something we were watching. it has been quite weak. that tends to be eight leading indicator. to see an uptick there. consumer confidence remains pretty good. when you look at nonmanufacturing pmi's, they look pretty strong as well. we do not think we are in a robust economic environment but we do not think we are in a recession either? caroline: is the phillips curve back? is it because unemployment is hitting such lows? are we going to see the consumer benefiting from higher paychecks? lori: we have been waiting for the phillips curve to come back
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for some time. the fed is going to keep its eye on wage growth is that is where you get sustainable, longer-term inflation when you get the wage growth. scarlet: how much of the rally that we saw in the early part of this year is attributable to the fed and the dovish tilt? ofseems to have run out steam where it no longer it is getting that as a catalyst for further gains. lori: there were a couple things that change the rallies. attractivewere valuation levels. the market sold off to far relative to the fundamentals. we are seeing a fundamentals driven rally. the bigger question is how do corporate earnings start to come through here? where does wage pressures start to throw those earnings? scarlet: why is it not a 2019 problem? lori: we are talking about small amounts of weight growth on a relative scale. have corporations investing and the benefits of the tax cut.
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other things, consumer confidence are good things still. caroline: they're good things. on the fits i -- on the flip side, yesterday we had the ecb slashing its growth forecast. we had china this week, canada this week, it feels like it is becoming pervasive outside the united states. is that going to be leaning on the risk appetite here in the u.s.? it certainly will influence things. in our own portfolios, the only equity arc it we have been overweight to has been the u.s. for the reasons you have talked about. at some stage we have been paring back because we are fearful we are on the tail end of the cycle. it is not over till it's over, but we have a tired looking bowl on the front cover. there is concern, but there is enough momentum into fundamentals to drive the u.s. market higher. scarlet: what kind of assumptions do you make about the u.s. dollar? up until today it was on a tear but that seems as negative.
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lori: all eyes on the fed come all eyes on other central bankers. we think the selloff today was unwarranted and the dollar should be a little stronger here because once again the u.s. is ahead of the curve. caroline: what about, therefore, if you are being not over till it's over, some strength in the bull market yet but not the mall -- but not the momentum, where do you put the money? lori: so we still like the consumer sectors, health care. we have been also looking at defensive. if you look at low volatility stocks, they have not rallied as strong as the rest of the broad market. we do think they are value oriented securities. underperformed. forlet: thank you so much joining us today. of course, it is international women's day today and we are looking at a couple of charts
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that highlight how women are doing in business. the first chart that we have here is a stunning because it looks at the percentage of female executives i sector in the s&p 500. caroline: just talking about sectors, but maybe not when you are woman. scarlet: utility is at the highest end and even the high end is just over 20%. what got my attention is how tech and energy are right next to each other on the opposite end. caroline: tech under fire for so many reasons today from a key female in politics. i want to show you, many people try to lean on the point that if you have females in positions of power to get to get more bang for your buck in terms of the rewards. scarlet: long-term. caroline: longer-term. at least 25% of executives are email in these companies in orange. consistently get better equity compared to the rest of the s&p who don't have more than 25% females.
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is evidence there. we keep banging the drum hear it if you have more women at the table, you do tend to get better rewards. least itat the very was correlation, i would argue causation as well. caroline: me too. hold the popcorn. netflix get a downgrade. and big tech mica paraguay elizabeth warren is calling for a separation in tech companies. we will discuss further. bloomberg released its annual ranking of the best states for gender equality. which state is ranked first? this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: the biggest pharma deal ever announced. some turbulence after
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major be and star board announced opposition to the deal. let's get the latest on the block luster deal. at hammond is speaking with ceo. ed: let's start high-level with the deal. you announced the biggest pharma deal in history. it should be the crowning moment of any sectors career and yet we find now you are defending the deal against shareholders who come out and think it is rashly executed. how does that feel? >> i am very excited about the deal and the transaction. it makes a lot of strategic sense. we are bringing together two companies that will be the number one player in oncology, number one in cardiovascular and --y strong presidents in
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what is most important, it in a much stronger way for long-term sustainable growth. we will be able to launch six new medicines in just the first body four months. ed: i'm interested to know whether you can best big shareholders to know if this would be supported? tovanni: we always been shareholders of course it ethic company, we have a history of constantly transforming. we have done it successfully in the past. done business development because it is a critical part of our strategy. right now, i am on the road and speaking to many shareholders. this is a big transaction. at the beginning there were many questions. the strategic rationale of the deal is becoming clearer and clearer and i'm continuing to speak to shareholders every day. ed: be spoken to the banks? giovanni: we speak to all of our
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shareholders. we will not comment on any individual shareholders, but i am having really good discussions with any shareholders. radicallylook the are when we get to the vote. there is pressure in the background. you do?k -- what would giovanni: we are speaking to shareholders every day. i am on the road. the value ofning the combined company. the rationale is very compelling financially. it is a deal that makes sense. it generates value for our shareholders from day one. ed: but are there any changes you could make, we cut the deal or offer to star board or wellington to persuade some of the discontent? giovanni: my focus right now is on getting the vote, because i strongly believe in the rationale of the deal. ed: let's talk about the deal, about the drugs. , how do you tivo
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regain the preeminence in this space? giovanni: first of all, i am very proud of what we have accomplished with opdivo, a foundational medicine. we have been improved in 16 new indications. we have leading -- we have over 20 registration of tribes coming. the data readouts coming up this year are important. it does not stop there. we are in a very strong position. that was the first you mentioned and emerge. very hard profile. they do seems to be some concerns. establish a set in one of their releases that in seven years, they would need to replace 60% of the revenues to deal with that gap. how do you address that and how
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much of a concern is it? atvanni: obviously we looked that very carefully as part of our due diligence. we understood what the likely scenarios in terms of the loss of exclusivity. we have a lot of expedients as a company. sales come from products we launched within the last five years. that is what happens in our industry. we have demonstrated our ability to renew our portfolio. we are trying -- we are acquiring sell jan because of portfolio. more opportunities for new medicines to come to market. ed: how long do you see this lasting before does fall off the cliff? invanni: may be beginning 2022. our objective to the launch of six new medicines in the next 24 months is to continue to do what we have done before. bring new medicines to patients
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to replace the ones that lose exclusivity. ed: you are a doctor. star board's presentation is heavy on science. had a lot of data, claims about the drugs that were different to what you had said in your presentations. how do you rate their science? giovanni: what i can tell you is that i am a physician or dime passionate about science. the great scientists at bristol-myers squibb. we are bringing transformational new medicines to patients to we are very excited by what we saw in the eye blind -- in the pipeline. in theue diligence assets. what is interesting in the products getting ready to be launched, three of the products we already see and know the data. it has been published, it is known. in one case in fact, last week, a filing with the fda was accepted and granted priority review. this is not a pipeline that will
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come to fruition many years from now, it is actually something that we will be able to bring to patients in the next two years. ed: which will significantly the risk of the acquisition. the big pharma deals are interesting because the focus, perhaps is on the corporate finance site but there is another aspect to the deals, which is patient outcomes and survival rates and the approval around that. what is putting these two companies together mean for patient outcomes? giovanni: i actually think about the new company as a science leader. we are going to be able to bring scientists from both companies together come attract more scientists to work with us. the pipeline is extremely promising and the objective really is to bring more medicines to patients faster. that is why i'm excited by the fact that the acquisition provides a platform to have a long-term, sustainable growth
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and help more patients in the future. ed: i got to ask you. hase heard you say there been no formal approach for the company, if there was you would have to disclose it to her did you have any informal approaches or any indications of in trust -- of interest prior to the deal? giovanni: the first and most important thing is that this is not a defensive deal. it is based on creating a stronger company that has better prospects are the future. filingsdisclosed in our everything about that. there was no offer for the company. ed: last time, was there an approach? giovanni: it has been disclosed. ed: we will have to keep looking. thank you so much for taking the time. back to you. caroline: what a great conversation and we thank you. coming up, netflix gets downgraded. why the streaming giant stock is not compelling in the current market here that's next.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: time now for a look at some of the key movers. buckingham and downgrading netflix to neutral with a $382 price target. user growth could become demised by credible competition. airlinesthwest downgraded. with an expected aftershocks from the government shutdown. downgraded, slashing the price target by off by 1.8%. the slowdown in the trade port and these discussions will take place of the next 10 days. a lot look out for.
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i am mark crumpton with first word news. former army intelligence analyst chelsea manning, who served years in prison for leaking one of the largest troves of
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unclassified -- of classified documents has been sent to jail for refusing to testify to a grand jury. the federal judge ordered manning to jail for contempt of court after a brief of hearing in which she affirmed she had no intention of testifying. she said she will accept whatever you bring upon me. she said she objects to the secrecy of the grand jury process and already revealed everything she knows at her court-martial. president trump declared he rejected a personal appeal from his ax lawyer for a pardon. it is the strongest assertion yet cohen may have lied under oath. there were days of questions about cohen over the issue of pardons. spacex has taken a step towards flying people aboard a commercially built vehicle. the crew dragon splashed down in the atlantic after a journey to
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the international space station. a test dummy was on board. spacex is hoping for a manned journey later this year. boeing also plans to send astronauts into orbit. players for the women's national soccer team have filed a gender discrimination lawsuit. they are seeking pay equal to their male counterparts' from the soccer federation. this comes three months before they will defend their title at the women's world cup. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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reporter: from bloomberg world headquarters, this is bloomberg markets, the close. caroline: big pressure is building on presidential hopefuls. elizabeth warren is calling for legislation to break up facebook, amazon and google. she wants extra regulations for companies with more than 25 billion dollars in global revenue. this is quite a key move being made by senator warren. talk to us about the system she wants and what impact this might have in terms of separating the juggernauts. main point is the tech companies, mostly those three in the u.s., have become so ubiquitous and essential they are operating in a similar way to the supply of water and electricity. these services are so essential
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to human existence at least in the u.s. maybe we should think about regulating the supply and price of what they provide. point, this is what sets her idea per from other political comments of the same subject. she has a detailed plan whereby if you have an internet platform 20 $5 billion in annual revenue, you will have two separate some of your businesses. there is a lower tier if you are not as big. scarlet: she thought this through. designating them as utilities. ,ll of these companies, amazon facebook, they have established a meaningful presence in washington. what have the lobbyists been pushing? there is pressure on them. alistair: a big group, this
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morning they made a point that from a consumer perspective, when we interact with google or facebook or amazon, the majority of time their services are free especially google and facebook. the u.s. antitrust laws that exist and the way they have been applied in the past 50 years or so, they focus on the end consumer price and where people are raising prices. these companies are great for consumers. most of it is free. amazon keeps prices low. reason, the is the real customers of these companies are businesses. a merchant on amazon, advertisers on google. thoughe: it feels as some of them are moving ahead of the political push. we have seen facebook looking to integrate the back ends of
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ensurep, instagram to these parts of the business can't be suddenly split up in a way that elizabeth warren that is calling for. is that reality? goalair: i think the big like zuckerberg made, fiscal was always to do that. it isn't a cynical ploy to me, but the risk for facebook is currently these huge services are separate from the huge social network. it is not hard for people to imagine how they could be separated. this goes to the heart of the surface,ch is on the these companies look like one thing we all interact with. in the background they are a separate set of complicated businesses that customers and
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companies pay a lot to access. scarlet: thank you for the perspective on this reprisal from elizabeth warren. alistair barr is in california. we put together a ranking of the best states for gender parity. different categories, median pay --io, health coverage, women number one is vermont followed by minnesota. caroline: neither of them moved from the previous year. hawaii has gone down, massachusetts -- the top five are where it is at. new york is number 12. scarlet: california is 22. from 25 lastp year. colorado, connecticut, north dakota round out the top 10. at the other
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mississippi, alabama, louisiana, oklahoma, idaho. 80% of female vermonters work and 4% are without health coverage. that is a great step. caroline: giving you food for thought on how you can make it easier if you give health care to a wider coverage -- that could entice them back. it is sad how it seems to be almost geographically divided in terms of lower performing states that are in the south. scarlet: there needs to be more attention paid all around, not just in the south. caroline: not just in the u.s. the 10th anniversary of the bull stocksin the u.s., coming up. looking back how it all began. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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the 10 year anniversary of the u.s. stocks bull market is coming up on march 9. a reporter takes us through this. reporter: by the most popular yardstick, the bull market is pegged to its closing price on march 2009. the low point of the 17-must bear market that erased 57% in value from equities. in new bull run would take rich with the s&p rallying 65% by the end of the year. despite gains, it wasn't until four years later march 2013 the s&p recouped losses from the bear market and set a new high. the s&p has surged 300% since its low in 2009. an annual equivalent return of
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15%. it hasn't was been a smooth ride. the s&p correcting six times, the most severe in 2011. fell 6.66%, the s&p the worst day since the bull market began after the aaa credit rating was cut. >> the united states of america reddit rating reduced by standard and poor's, tonight that headline long-term rating lowered to aa plus. while the market scare this past december had people calling for an end, equity values have soldiered on. the median forecast is tracked by bloomberg with the s&p finishing 2019 at this level. that would equate to 3.5% gain from current levels and 15% run-up from where we ended last year. scarlet: that was romaine
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bostick. the bull rally continues. our stock of the hour is a marketplace. it is the nasdaq. all of these are falling on news of a major review on trading rules. the ftc comes knocking on the door. >> what we are talking about , nationalgulation mnf market system. it is regulating since 2007. what is at stake is the flow of toey from brokerage firms exchanges and back again. there is so much business that is tied up in fees for trade and also rebates which are also -- often paid. that is something that ftc is looking closely at. -- sec is looking closely at. they are looking at revisiting the way money flows around in
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stock trading. caroline: how does this come across the market? nasdaq,re talking about the new york stock exchange, owned by intercontinental exchange, and see bow global markets, 12 of the stock exchanges they own. the other one is the investments exchange. they featured michael lewis' flash boys. in the sec -- in the summer, the sec started a pilot program to look into these structures and the exchanges are filing suit to stop it. you can see what is down, the agency could go even further when it comes to reviewing the way markets work. scarlet: perhaps review is the first step. >> that is the concern. how it goes, these exchanges are
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dependent on the fees from trading. also you think about the more business that is done in these markets, the more data they generate, that is a big source of revenue and the trading. looking at nasdaq, 70% of the revenue comes from trading or data or index licensing. you are talking about the heart of the business. one could be more diversified perhaps and that is what you don't see as much of a move in their shares. scarlet: thank you so much. the nasdaq down 3% on the day. china's tough day, exports falling, equities sinking the most since october and the economy is 12% smaller than estimated. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
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norway dealing a big , reducinge industry holdings in oil stocks. while the investment scares big oil, it is sending shockwaves across the industry. we spoke with finance ministers about this decision. >> this reflects the risk of the norwegian government already taking here in norway. and removing these companies from the government pension from global will be better attempt to reduce our aggregated [indiscernible] reporter: the biggest integrated companies are the biggest ones for expiration. you feel confident this is enough insurance and enough of a hedge given they are the ones export them for oil? >> the integrated companies are the companies that are about to invest more in renewable energy.
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those companies would have reduced the investment scheme to an extent we don't think it is recommendable. --how much do you really a really expect them to invest? >> what we see for now is investments are growing. it is an interesting market and it will be [indiscernible] the pension fund want be able to invest in those countries in the future. >> if time goes on and you don't see enough investment in renewables, will you look at this issue again and drop integrated companies alongside the fully expiration companies? has taken anment final decision today. parliament will take the final decision before we will implement this together with the norwegian bank. this will be a slow process, but as you are aware of, we are
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how toably monitoring envelop -- development -- develop the strategy. we have put a lot of analysis behind it. >> the next step goes to parliament. do you think this decision, not fully adding the integrated oil companies was a political over my? -- political compromise? >> this was given to us by the central bank and expert groups. we have taken our time, based our decision on financial issues only. >> i am thinking about things like future gas and oil ipo's, aramco comes to mind. will people be able to buy into future ipo's? have taken a decision today when it comes to the specific group of oil and gas companies. at the same time we have been very supportive of broad
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investment strategies launched for the firm. we have invested in thousands of companies globally and have small investments in each of these companies. that is a strategy that served the fund well, and it is always based on financial views. >> how much to ask about something going on in europe. are you concerned about large money banks implicated in laundering schemes? >> we haven't found any traces of that but all countries are worried about money laundering. that is why we have taken steps through legislation, and europe and elsewhere, to fight money-laundering. that is something on the agenda also here in norway. caroline: that was norway's finance minister. almost fiveks fell months. a selloff triggered a $345 billion rout.
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we have the chief emerging markets strategist for bloomberg intelligence and andy brown here. i want to get your expertise in writing -- reading these chinese tea leaves because you have experience in that country. we get the brokerage saying, sell rating, on one particular insurance company, the people's insurance company of china. why is this an alarm bell? >> the first point, the manic-depressive stock market is it has almost nothing to do with the underlying economy. tells you nothing whether the economy is growing, slowing, going sideways. tells you everything about the concern of chinese government officials great market sentiment, market, which can be manic, up and down wildly swinging is influenced by these announcements. it was very clear cell. citic would not have put out a
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sell rating without the explicit approval of chinese market the stock itself has doubled this year and hit its that'simit going up poster child for the world's fastest growing stock market and the government has seen enough. the question really is what was behind this government concern. scarlet: what you think was behind this concern? the government hasn't seen -- gottenty investors have conditioned to expect this. what is interesting, you look shares, they trade on both. pic listed on the a share market. it was up watch wrote times. four times.s up but the mos, the big insurance fund, they are large holders
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with big awkward times, so there was justification that it rose quickly, not magical but it was on the right trajectory going up. you are right it was state mandated sell order for sure that came through citic. the authorities don't like bubbles, and we have seen the biggest stock run we have seen around the world happening in china. at the same time we are seeing economic numbers looking horrendous out of china last night for us, friday for china trading we got export numbers which were seemingly appalling, down 20%. how bad is that? >> the month of february was down 20%, but look at the month of january and february combined because of the chinese new year holiday which falls in february. it is still bad. the worst is it appears we are on the brink of a long-term export problem slowdown for china, that this is not cyclical
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but looking structural. data, buthere is that you have been looking at emerging markets for a long time. how much faith is there? there was a study at the university of hong kong and chicago that found china gdp was inflated over the last nine years -- shopping. if that is the reason to change your tune on china? >> no. local governments in china were long rewarded for encouraging growth and investment and creating numbers to the national statistics to do that. this is shining light on a problem everyone knows is there. the question is what is the outcome? the bad news is the economy is 10% smaller than it is reported to be but the silver lining is being smaller means it is more resilient. -- perhaps able being able to navigate through shocks in the market. scarlet: how do you see this
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playing out on trade talks? xi jinping and they'll trump after theat the end people's congress stuff gets wrapped up. does this have any impact? how mindful is the chinese resident -- president of the markets? >> i don't think it will affect trade dialogue. the key takeaway is, and it comes back to the data, it is another piece of data off the pmi data, more forward looking. look at pmi data out of china's biggest trading partners, europe and japan. they are contractionary. this is pointing to more of the same weakness ahead from a growth perspective. from emerging markets standpoint, the markets have yet to apply a real premium to growth assets. we will see that. back to the signaling we see in the markets from government officials, whether or not the
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chinese government could be getting out ahead of bad news, we had terry branstad, the u.s. ambassador to china, saying no date has been set for a summit between president xi and trump. let's not forget this market reality -- rally was started by optimism that these sites would reach an agreement. scarlet: thank you to our guests. china.just talking about looking at the etf that tracks am a lowercks, fx i 1%. china is home to the best-performing stock market even with this latest sellout. caroline: this is bloomberg. ♪ this isn't just any moving day.
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this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. crumpton withk first word news. riot police in istanbul ofpersed thousands demonstrators trying to march on
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the main pedestrian avenue to mark international women's day. police set up barricades and fired rounds of tear gas. there are restrictive protests recently citing security. turkey'sle members of -- they repelled down into the waters of the phosphorus. the river. approving legislation aimed at reducing the role of big money in politics, ensuring ethics standards. stores -- restores the people's faith that government works for the people's interests, not the special interest. that faith, that competence is a treasure that is fundamental to a democracy people believe. mark: the measure stance little
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chance in the republican senate where a majority leader says it will not come up for a vote. the white house issues a veto threat. president trump is in alabama to survey the damage from a tornado that devastated our town, killing two dozen people last weekend. -- devastated the town of beauregard, killing two dozen people last weekend. it leveled everything in its path. it was one of 38 tornadoes confirmed across the southeast in a deadly weekend outbreak. vermont senator bernie sanders is raising the stakes on the medicare for all debate, expanding his proposal to include long-term care. it is forcing other democratic residential hopefuls to take a stand on addressing one of the biggest gaps in the u.s. health care system. the some moderates say it is too costly and senator sanders could expose a divide in the party.
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global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: 8:00 in london. i am caroline hyde. scarlet: this is bloomberg markets, the close. caroline: u.s. stocks dropped with the dollar after showing american hiring the weakest in more than a year. beijing's bubble fear, china's world leading rally coming to an end after $345 billion rout. we discuss why. and elizabeth warren wants to break up amazon, google and facebook, calling them anti-competitive. all of that and more coming up.
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: headlines moving markets. the big one was jobs. the unemployment rate fell but not from the payrolls -- it was a big miss. you put it all together it was risk off for equities. the nasdaq down to a four-week low. caroline: we had growth concerns reverberating in every direction. the ecb, china's trade data looking appalling, and you have this data number from the u.s., all of this back to a week -- you can go on, concerns front and center. scarlet: at least the dollar is not gaining anymore. for safestill some havens like treasuries. weeks up every day this gaining .4%.
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the lowest since january 4. let's take a deeper dive into the action with market reporters covering commodities and more. about to use -- loseter: gold was about to all of its gains, then we saw a lift. the dollar was weakening for the first time in a while. gold futures now on pace for their best day in about two weeks, holding the line around $1300. 5% through rallied the first weeks of the year, then gave back those gains, dipping into the red. the dollar was in the middle of that rally, but new data out clipping the wings of the dollar. we are starting to see a more bit into these haven assets. another reason why people are remaining bullish, one reason why we have not seen them lapse is because a lot of support out of central banks. central banks continue to add to gold reserves. we learned overnight china
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expanded its reserves for a third straight month, strengthening the bull case central banks will continue to andne of the main buyers main support levels for gold prices. tolysts are advising folks sit with gold, saying the risk is skewed to the upside, not only for 2019 but probably through 2020 as well. caroline: the jobs -- >> take a look at this, five-day the first 2.5%, losing streak since november last year, the worst since december last year. any way you look at this, bearish, investors not liking it. in certainty -- uncertainty on a macro level, wanting to know what is next to know what is next. we had this monster rally on the year, consolidation or reversal of that. let's look at this chart. the main point is over the last year, the buyers aren't in control. wendy 600, 2800, the bulls
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stepping up. at 2800 morehowing recently below the 20 day moving average. over not conditions reverse -- overbought conditions reversing on asymmetry basis we could see a drop down to levels we had last year. 2600 last. perhaps going back to the 50 day moving average, more declines ahead. >> if you look at the stocks that showed the largest inflow yesterday, there are two sector funds. industrials,nd first we start with the words v.a. health, down $750 million yesterday. that is the strongest inflow for the funds this year. at the top you can see xl i. that is taking in $565 million
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here that matches the largest inflow since 2016. digging deeper into industrials because yes, the sector is the best performing year to date, but it has been a rough month. looking at industrials in march, it is the worst performing sector. you can see while the sector is up 14%, we are starting to see it fade a bit. back to you. caroline: thank you. talking about earlier a mixed bag of data, 20,000 workers added to payrolls, below estimates, but the unemployment rate fell and wage gains -- we have been digesting this all day, tell us what we don't know, what is beneath the surface of this report that surprised you? >> the payroll change was a
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stunning shock to everyone, even below the most pessimistic forecast. three-montht our average, six month average, we saw a very solid behavioral trend, as solid as last year. i wouldn't panic too much. if businesses were hesitating on hiring decisions, they have hesitated on investment as well. soft patch seeing a on business spending in the first quarter. as we look at other leading indicators, we see that they have bounced back impressively, i askedly the surface them. this is a short-term bonds, not derailment of the economy. scarlet: i will fixate on the negative spirit the soft was pretty broad-based area across different parts of the economy -- there is above consensus above trend height a month.
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this was a shock to the system. where is the bad news that could become something bigger? >> it would be bad news to see a .tall in the pace of hiring there are quirks in the data of course. you have very warm january giving way to a much more typical february. -- e you can give you saw as a result, but more broad based, it looks like there or temporary hiccup in animal spirits in the report. don't be worried about the negative side. as we look at income creation, even though we had a lousy payroll number and decline in the work week, that increase in average hourly earnings means workers take home pay in the first two months of this year is running stronger than at any point previously in the cycle.
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that is good for consumer spending. consumer spending is the driver of the economy. scarlet: do we have an inflation problem? >> we could muddle through what will be a lousy first quarter but consumers will get the -- ony back on strike track. it means households are not only more expensive as workers but priceilling to tolerate increases as consumers. this means there are signs of higher inflation on the horizon. tune into the cpi tuesday. core inflation accelerated 40 basis points last year. that could continue this year. doesn't look like it now but we have to step back and not be too bent out of shape. scarlet: a preview as well to next week's cpi reports. the chief u.s. economist.
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a grocery rivalry, kroger shares take a tumble. we will find out why. grab your luggage, southwest airlines its downgraded. -- gets downgraded. andr lacroix owner national beverage shares are declining. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: time for social climbers, the stocks making waves -- using the terminal bsb go. gamestop shares at the lowest level in 14 years after bank of america downgraded the stock. from ack is down 30% recent january week. -- january peak.
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integration efforts from a 2017 acquisition could lead to slower revenue growth for this company. shares fell to the lowest since september and the ipo offering. scarlet: also making the rounds, a decline in u.s. stocks in a fifth day, resulting in the worst week of the year. part of that, safe havens are catching a bid. how are investors using etf's? securitiest citadel head of etf. from where you sit, what is the relationship between flows and price action? have you use flows as a how do you use flows as a real-world indicator? we have seen logan volatility -- this week is low-energy stocks. >> it is a great question.
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i think it is the confluence of the two, assets and flows, as well as volatility and volume. we provide liquidity across the board depending on investor objectives. overall we have seen pronounced equity -- pronounced activity particularly in china, a a-shares has been topical, and industrials and energy. caroline: that is a great point given the crushing in the chinese market overnight. we have seen concern about sell signals from politicians up high. what about etf flows? is this something that would be longer-term given confidence from msci inclusion? seehe unique thing is we do a decent turnover in expression both outright and synthetic,
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because emerging markets that have a higher percentage of a shares slow and volume relative to those that don't. there is decent, positive momentum and i expect people will continue to wait and see how it trade deal evolves. msci inclusion being a good catalyst to enter more into the space. scarlet: the rally in chinese stocks and em overall, the backdrop is the fed becoming dovish and pausing. are we seeing positioning from the dovish tilt play out or is that over with? >> one of our focus is is providing liquidity -- focuses is providing liquidity across the board. we have seen a good mix as more rhetoric has come out of the fed on switching duration between
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term.r term and longer in particular credit etf's have seen dramatic inflows. february was more pronounced after a relatively flat january. caroline: you are trying to build up your scale of fixed income. how much can you persuade investors the liquidity is there particularly looking at risky areas? >> etf's have had an interesting evolution in fixed income. we have seen assets grow tremendously. looking back 10 years having a handful of etf's with relatively , relative to now, it is a great tool for those that want to implement in the harder to obtain spaces like mortgage-backed security or high-yield. it is a great tool to put on hedging beta as well as an
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expression of investor objectives. scarlet: we need to talk about fees. pricehave taken the forced to a new low. has waived a sofi lot of fees for the first year. is this good for the industry overall? it could be like teaser rates. >> we provide liquidity across a huge gamut of etf's and equities. fans of competition and transparency in the market from fidelity securities perspective. it has been an interesting evolution to watch, and we will continue to see how it evolves over time. scarlet: the head of etf that citadel securities, thank you. ,- at some adult securities
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thank you -- citadel securities, thank you. investors have a way of targeting firms. here is a look at etf's on international women's day. we look at the barclays women in leadership exchange traded note. this tracks u.s. based companies that satisfy one or both of the gender diversity criteria of a female ceo or women making up at least a quarter of the workforce. stocksks and index of from each sector. some current s&p 500 companies include gm, ibm, nasdaq, hershey and northrop grumman. the problem is gender diversity needs to be -- leads to better decisions and returns and will they off in a long-term. this -- debbie a.l. has seen a wil has seense -- a steady increase am a and this
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year however they have willed themselves to return to topping the benchmark in the past desktop two months. they have a 45 basis points, a yellow light in the intelligence traffic light system because of low trading volume, credit risk and alternative rating. you can catch etf iq every wednesday at 1:00 p.m. new york time. we have a down day in u.s. stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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announcer: joining me is kevin kelly of benchmark investments. great to have you here. the reason i say that is you have been remarkable in terms of market calls. in december, down days, feeling bearish, you were saying buy. and in a week or two ago you were talking here, more so about being bearish.
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can you talk to us about what led you to those conclusions? >> it was interesting when we got into december and you saw oversold conditions especially in the options market which shows you people and what they are doing with their money. it tells you better than a lot of economic indicators because this is where money is being hedged. going back a couple weeks ago, you could actually see we were getting signals we should start to get bearish. butave come off the lows, people were hedging themselves appropriately. abigail: i know another signal you were watching, we have a great chart, you were one of the options index -- the divergence of the s&p 500 similar to last year is worrisome to you now. kevin: this is the true fear
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index, is this index. abigail: the one in white. abigail:kevin: this tells you where people are placing their bets because it is deep out of the money puts where people hedge their portfolios. it shows you when they are worried or not. one of the things that concerned me the most is such a huge run-up, almost 20% off of the lows, but skew wasn't coming up. if people are not hedging, and we see a down pull, they will sell their positions because they don't have insurance. that is what was worrying me the most. abigail: we are starting to see some of that. it could turn into volatility where there was divergence last year. you have been great in terms of your sector and individual stocks falls, real estate reads. today you are talking about broadband infrastructure. kevin: this is an interesting
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company because they are off 13% after canceling. when these are canceled, it is to the negative side. today it was a candidate to be taken out. it is a lot of activist investors like star board who have 4% talking about the company getting -- needing to sell themselves. they delayed investor day indefinitely and looking at alternatives. i looked in the options market after they postponed it, and you calls to only a few puts. everyone is going in and positioning for a sale. only a monthing out and buying the $30 call. price andning up the implied volatility. , take theune 21 put proceeds in and by the same strike call for $265.
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it is $.35 to play this out. here you get all the upside, don't worry about the price. abigail: bullish, thank you. back to you. scarlet: thank you. let's look at how stocks are faring now at the end of trading and for the week. s&p 500 down every single day this week. that has not happened since -- caroline: trump became resident. money coming out of china, huge -- the flight into havens like the yen. i want to look at all country world index, that was down. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ you.
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first word news. president trump claim to today that he rejected a personal appeal from his lawyer michael cohen for a pardon. it is the strongest assertion that cohen may have lied under. the president tweeted his claim after days of questions about pardons. elizabeth warren is proposing a plan aimed at breaking up tech giants such as amazon, google and facebook. regulators could unwind tech mergers that illegally undermine competition.


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