tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg March 8, 2019 3:30pm-5:00pm EST
mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. president trump claim to today that he rejected a personal appeal from his lawyer michael cohen for a pardon. it is the strongest assertion that cohen may have lied under. the president tweeted his claim after days of questions about pardons. elizabeth warren is proposing a plan aimed at breaking up tech giants such as amazon, google and facebook. regulators could unwind tech mergers that illegally undermine competition. have more on this story
coming up in just a moment. the u.k. had reportedly rejected the european union's latest brexit offer before it was announced. the eu said it would allow the so-called irish backstop to apply only to northern ireland, rather than the entire united kingdom. british negotiators had already dismissed the idea tuesday. choice.u has to make a we are both part of this process. the decisions the european union makes over the next few days will have a big impact on the outcome of the vote. european leaders tell me they worry that time is running out and we only have one chance to get it right. my message to them is now is the moment. mark: the prime minister reiterated that the proposal would not alter the uk's commitment to the belfast good friday agreement of 1998 and two
avoiding a hard border in all circumstances. much of venezuela is still without electricity. the country's worst ever power outage is in its second day, raising tensions in a country already on edge. venezuela's socialist government blasted the power failure as an electrical war directed by the united states. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, this is bloomberg markets the close.
caroline: we're 30 minutes from the end of the trading day. it is a down day and a down week. the nasdaq on course for another day of losses. the nasdaq hasn't fallen in a week, since back to december. that is one of the key ones to be watching. we are also seeing the fact that this is an all country selloff. europe, china. the all country index is off. chinese stocks sink the most since october. we get a look at the pound. everyone one of the g10 currencies is down. eu is playing hardball just four days from another key vote. scarlet: every week brings a key vote on brexit and every week it gets pushed back a little more and the optimism fades. 500, every single
day this week, it is now below 2800. a two day moving average, all sectors are in the red. china is down for a third day, as measured by the fx i. that is one reason why it is down so much because of that, celebrating. perhaps the government does not want to let bubbles through. the yen along with other safe havens, cosco a bit of a safe haven after a gold store -- star quarter. caroline: let's look at the analyst recommendations. first up, done grading netflix to neutral. growth could be compromised by credible new competition. world research done grading southwest airlines, citing unanticipated factors, including new routes, aftershocks from the summit -- from the government shutdown. ,one grading exxon mobil
slashing its price target by 25%. , witho $75 per share analyst seeing limited upside. tech-lash has become an issue for 2020. senator elizabeth warren is proposing to break up the .argest tech companies the democratic presidential hopeful laid out her policy proposal in a post on medium antitrustting, weak enforcement has led to a dramatic reduction in competition and innovation. america has a long tradition of breaking up companies when they become too big. even if they are providing a good service at a reasonable price. for more, we want to bring in the senior antitrust analyst for bloomberg. senator warren talks about enforcement. is this an enforcement issue or about writing new loss? jennifer: it is eventually going
to have to be about writing new laws. debate raging in the antitrust community over whether something needs to change in terms of antitrust enforcement and has it been to relax -- too lax? over 100et precedent years of case law that has set the standards by which we judge companies today and whether violates the law. to do something as radical -- because it is quite different from the state of the antitrust law today -- asthma is a myth warren is proposing, it would have to be done through legislation. some of the more radical points are unwinding things that we did in the past, especially when comes to facebook and whatsapp. could this be done in any way? what would need to be reacted to do this? jennifer: the federal trade
condition -- commission has the power today, within the antitrust laws. they can go after mergers that are already consummated and they can look at these mergers and ask if they are anti-competitive or look at the merged firm's conduct and if they think that it is a finite laws, they can go after them. one of the remedies available is breaking up the company. years ago, they tried this with microsoft. when microsoft was misbehaving. it is not that they can't do this today. they can do that today. going back to your first question, this has to do with enforcement. the question might be, maybe enforcement isn't strong enough. it is a tool that they have. there is debate. elizabeth warren is on one side. many don't believe enforcement has been lax and we don't want to punish companies for getting big. scarlet: you mentioned innovation. elizabeth warren mentioned that as well. we can't i trust enforcement led
to a reduction in innovation. what is your read of the situation jennifer: i would agree there is a tension there. you have smart people who know what they are talking about on both sides, arguing that we have developed these big companies with a lot of power and it is dampening innovation. on the other side of the coin, there are those that would say that if we start to punish companies for getting big lawfully, because they have innovated, that will dampen innovation, because what is the reward? what is the pot at the end of the rainbow they're going to go after, and why try to get big if they are going to get punished? caroline: to an extent, this feels a get is starting the conversation. the green new deal has done that to an extent. let's put climate change in the conversation. to a certain extent, what is elizabeth warren really hope to achieve? what could be brought in, because of course she is one side of the argument, what could be done? jennifer: i think you are right.
this is of the way of getting the conversation started as part of the mantra of the democrats going into the 2020 election. i do think there is some bipartisan support for some legislation that regulates or controls the conduct of these big tech platforms. it is more likely to be on the consumer protection and the privacy side than the antitrust side. even those issues are conflated, because people complain about misuse of consumer data as an antitrust violation, when i would probably be better taken care of on these consumer privacy side. that is something that might feasibly be able to get through a republican-controlled senate. caroline: great for your expert eyes. senior antitrust analyst for bloomberg intelligence. coming up, national beverage fizz after ase -- disappointing quarter.
check onlet's get a the latest headlines. the stock rockets decline is bad news for the hedge fund manager chris. his flagship fund fell just over 10% last month. sharp losses and gains are not unusual, but this was the funds biggest in three years. pausing theirs review of t-mobile's takeover of sprint. the sec says more time is needed to review the arguments with a deal provided by the two companies. t-mobile filed a document about why this is an their interests. investors wonder if this is a
sign of trouble. caroline: national beverage fell the most in two decades after oix sparklingla cr water posted disappointing results, with the ceo leaning india -- blaming india. you couldn't really make up what he said. he said it is not down to even an act of god, it is injustice. >> these guys are known for quirky press releases, but everyone felt that this one was of the more unusual than normal. what is happening here is maybe the end of a hot streak for this consumer brand. no one had ever heard of it before 2012. it exploded. it has been driving the sparkling water market up over the past several years, but everyone else sees those numbers, pepsi is coming hard after this, coke, a lot of private label rants. there is concern that maybe we are coming out of a hot streak
and there are difficult times ahead. scarlet: when he talks about injustice, he is talking about the class action lawsuit. what are the claims? craig: there were claims that it was not made with natural ingredients. they have denied it and i'm not sure that it is out there. it is kind of death by 1000 cuts. certainly not helping. there was no sign that people were abandoning it. brand. buzzy instagram you see people taking selfies in front of boxes. it has been a trendy brand, but that lawsuit doesn't help. caroline: i laugh about me but it is "la croix" associated with the spelling of christian la croix. maybe that's why got some of its allure. i am surprised to hear that it is old. craig: national beverage bought it in the early 2000's. is one of those things we see now and again where a brand just manages to break out.
media, halo top is like that. giovanni was like that a few years ago where everyone wants it. it is difficult to maintain the kind of momentum. come, easy go. competitors are hot on their heels. what is coke and pepsi's version of this? craig: pepsi cannot listen thing called lovely. you saw super bowl ads. they had a good lunch. $100 million in the first year. for labers are not good croix. the first part of the year has been rough. now, we are about 15 minutes before the market closes and the nasdaq down for a fifth day. fell lower,cks chinese stocks fell lower. where are we seeing gains? caroline: you got to look hard at the moment, because you have everyone talking about the downward wind.
caroline: this is countdown to the close. scarlet: joining us at this time every day is joe weisenthal. your favorite day. joe: the best day. scarlet: it was a real mixed report. joe: it was a weird report. it is tempting if you have a bad number to dismiss it as being a fluke. once in a while, we have these reports. if you look at the last two months, you can see it. when you combine them, you're per month.60
probably ginny ray was overstated. you have other strange things in the numbers, like a massive drop in usage. the biggest drop in 30 years from8.1% to 7.3%. it was strange. government shutdown, maybe some weather and calendar affect. it is exciting, but we will see next month whether a new trend is emerging. it is concerning enough that it doesn't make the feds think twice about it. caroline: just by the inflationary professors -- pressures. joe: we had powell recently saying that we can have a wage growth without being inflationary. even with average hourly earnings heading its highs level since the crisis, probably not a big concern. scarlet: it certainly cause the market to decline. had i looked earlier, you 23 out of 24 groups in the red. things have bounced back in that you have more groups in the
green. many are basically unchanged. what has been consistent is food and staples at the top. now they have gained 1.2%. caroline: what has been consistent on the downside is energy lagging. by theting hit crosscurrents of this labor report and what is going on in china, and europe. in every area, we seem to have rising alarm bells. scarlet: that hits the demand a story. energy off by 2%. when you look at the indexes, we have come off lows. we're basically at session highs , with about eight minutes to go before close. whether we actually finish in the green is another question, but you are seeing those losses get moderated. caroline: dan curtis fact of the monday have now had
through friday, five days of losses. we have not had monday through friday losses since 2016. joe: i was pretty surprised. you would have thought some point at q4 of last year we would get that. even though today is looking not too bad, down days all week. caroline: just moments from the close. now to our markets reporters. >> i had to take a look at the dow transport, because it is amazing. down once again, 11 days in a row. that's the longest losing streak going back to may of 1972. i thought it would be interesting to look at what happened then. in 1972, we see that losing streak, dow transport going alone the 200 day moving average. still rallying higher until later in 1972, then this bear market for the dow transport and the s&p 500 into late 1974. clearly a very different
economy, so not a perfect comparison. definitely worth keeping in mind the bearishness we have. that could be a tell of what is ahead. romaine: the stock mover of the day is a tiny biotech company technologies, shares more than doubling in three hours after the fda said it would allow the company to sell a genetically modified salmon in the u.s. the company has been developing this for decades trying to get it has the market but run into problems and a lot of concerns about the perception of what a genetically modified fish is. a lot of people deriding it as frankenfish. salmon is the third most popular seafood in the u.s. but only a third comes from wild caught sources. most comes from farms and aqua bounty says it has technology that farmers can use to grow these fish in two years instead of the normal three years it takes. this could be a big boon for
those farmers and aqua bounty and its shareholders. the only issue was labeling requirements and that appears to be satisfied. expect to see this in stores soon. frankenfish remained niche. i love your stories. let's bring in sarah ponczek. we always bounce our way into green. dow only off by 1/10 of 1%. broad selling at the end of the day. >> it was brought and it is great to see the late day come back we are seeing now. really, what the big theme continues to be is we are getting mixed signals as it relates to the u.s. economy and the global economy. right now as it relates to markets, more and more investors continue to say that we need to get more direction one way or the other, because we keep getting mixed signals. destroyedw china got overnight.
with the comeback, less of a story. how much was that weighing on things for much of the day, even before that jobs report? sarah: it was weighing on jobs report before we even came into the open and before we saw the jobs report. overnight, we saw selling in china, we saw a leak over to europe. when you see selling of that sort-- caroline: in excess of $320 billion. sarah: unbelievable foyer -- unbelievable. when you see that, a goes into the jobs report had quite a scary headline number. like really didn't help. scarlet: sarah is sticking with us, because with 3.5 minutes to go, let's bring in barbara reinhardt. we talk about the two catalysts for the market today. the jobs report that was a mixed bag and selloff in china. what does it say about the state of u.s. equity markets that we
have managed to shrug off a lot of it? i think there are a couple things we have been watching carefully as this rally started on december 26. one has been the oversold sentiment conditions that were reached at the end of the year. to have had this significant rallying u.s. equities, up 18% to overbought, but not extremely overbought, it is not unusual to see these pullbacks. the second thing that is important to us has been this convergence versus the virgins. last year, was all about divergent world economies. the rest of the world was in a slowdown. because powering ahead of the fiscal stimulus and the tax plan. are seeingyou significant stimulus out of china. significant stimulus out of china that we are just beginning to see the green shoots of.
the total social financing data. that is when you start to see it the most. china has been stimulating their economy to different degrees since last summer. we think it will probably take them until the second quarter of this year for some of the early signs to materialize. on credits impulse indicator a 12 month basis is declining, bonnie six-month basis, it is hooking back up. joe: one of the things people worry about is that with so much overcapacity in the chinese industrial economy, you can extend credit, but it is just going to go to financial engineering and pay off that debt. actual productive investment is scarce there. do you worry that is just going to sustain or reinflate the credit bubble or go into the financial market without producing demand for the rest of the world? >> i think you are speaking
about something that has been pervasive over the last decade. so many times when central banks have been easing policy, there has always been a very big? on behalf of some skeptics in the market, saying it doesn't really matter. things are so that it can't possibly work this time. that was some of the reaction you saw today. ,ou had a big flip from the fed where they said we are tightening policy. the ecb give a big message in terms of downside risk, and yet the market doesn't believe it. we think it is a long-term skepticism problem that you have not that things should be taken as a one-off, but you have to bit oflook at them in a a more holistic picture. we've come back a long way. the dow was only off by seven points. it is unchanged at this point. the s&p taking is the clients
about .5%. dow jones industrial average is up by 14 point -- seconds, 3, 2, 1. scarlet: the socket too excited just yet. caroline: what a comeback. echoes of growth concerns we had from the ecb yesterday, the bank of canada as well, really from every area of the world with china's data overnight. even the fed beige book points to some concern with the jobs number. joe: that's the dominant concern, that even with all of the pivotus out of of the fed, it will be enough. , marchyone forgot today 9, 10 years from when the rally
started. i'm surprised it hasn't been -- the markets are a superstitious group. it's not to say there aren't certain things to be worried about, of course there are. last year, nobody was talking about a global slowdown, and now we find ourselves in it. the way we think about it from a fundamental perspective and into the model is what is already incorporated into asset prices. the thing for us is to think about that we are looking for and starting to see signs of stabilization. he see it in the earnings ratios at the end of february. they have stopped falling. caroline: westech deeper into the action with our markets reporters. abigail: i'm taking a look at performance of the s&p 500. the average almost turned on the data where the positive, but on the week, down 2%.
the worst week going back to all the way before christmas. this is a long-term chart of the s&p 500. the last three times the s&p 500 has gone below its 50 day or 15 week and one week moving averages, it then touched down to the 200 week moving average, come up, and back down. in the case of 2008 and nine, that was an extreme situation. 15sought it in 2011 and and 2016. we just closed above the 50 week moving average. one of our reporters says he sees a lot of reversals, which drops ahead. more maybe back done good -- maybe back down to the 200 a moving average. romaine: i've one less mover to leave you with for the week. al ask a air, falling -- alaska
air, falling 9% and trading back down to the level it was at in 2014. this week started off bad for the company. it cut its first-quarter -- fourth-quarter revenue forecast. alaska air typically flies routes that have it all to itself or little competition. spirit air with a lot of transcontinental flights, durchin aivision -- lasting air -- alaska air. something to keep an eye on here. airlines index is down about 4% today. for present this week, excuse me. delta airlines was the only number up. caroline: great perspective romaine and abigail. still with us is sarah ponczek and our guest.
we were talking about the decade we have now hit in terms of the anniversary of the bull run and the slot is a superstitious market. made great reporting on basically what we should have been in if you are going to win. sarah: we did a thought experiment and thought it would be interesting to do a risk off of research experiment. they created a god portfolio and the idea was if you had perfect 2020 hindsight, held the best-performing stocks now from the own i'm bottom. -- the 09 bottom. 100, the idea is that you would held that she exact sciences up over 10,000%, netflix, and although your portfolio may have
returned 7500 percent, there still would have been short-term period's where you would have been underperforming. joe: so long periods where you would lose to the market. sarah: exactly. this god portfolio had a drawdown six percentage points more than any drawdown in the s&p. at the same time, you would've been underperforming in 2011 by 10%. joe: this is important if you are a manager with investors. you see those things were people into netflix and you have this much money. sarah: and barbara can speak to this. so many on the market are focused on short-term events. if you are underperforming the s&p 500 for a couple months back the ascent -- extent of 10%, your clients would have been stressed out.
10 years later, you would ever turned 20 times the s&p 500 -- returned 20 times the s&p 500. barbara: this is why behavioral science is studied by so many academics. we are top-down global macro investors, and we have had to listen -- for my 30 year career, i've had everyone tell me macro doesn't matter this time. i always smile and say to myself, but it does. joe: from the global perspective, one of the biggest -- for ar ryle now while now is uso performance. when you look at the rest of the world, do you see signs of some sort of sustainable reversal of that trend? barbara: there was a data point that came out earlier this week that i think went unnoticed. to the global pmi
data showing for the first time since april 2013, that the emerging market pmi's or doing better than the developed market pmi's. it is one data point, but it has a lot of data history to it and that is pretty significant. i would also say china stimulating its economy will help to direct parts of the world, number one the emerging markets. number two, it should help europe out of its malaise it has been stuck in for the last 12 months. a few months from now, we will be able to say there was a big turn in the data in 2000 and 19, not mrs. -- 2019, not necessarily a back off to the races, but things stopped getting so bad. scarlet: it was a turning point, perhaps. where do you want to be a not want to be? barbara: our portfolios are focused on a few things.
where we make our stock to bond decisions, we have an overweight toward risk assets. we as much as 2016, but think stocks will be able to outperform bonds. the most visibility we have is in the u.s. and emerging markets at this point. that is where we take some of our biggest out for that we're looking for -- alpha that we are looking for. something that have not been isforming as we expected small stocks -- short stocks. that's unlikely to be sustainable over the course of this year. they had such a big rally and there are fundamental reasons to think it is in the wrong time in the business cycle for them. we're not putting our chips on the table with them. scarlet: barbara reinhard, great to get your perspective.
check that along. forecast slowdown is perhaps arriving tennis plunge -- talks are still stalling. the eu makes a new offer. the pound remains under pressure. joe: another year, another clash over new jersey's budget. phil murphy is wrestling with legislators from his own party over how much to raise taxes and invest in new jersey transit for the 2020 fiscal year. it's reminiscent of lester's battle that almost shut down the government in trenton. joining us now is governor phil murphy. governor murphy, thank you very much for joining us. one of the most headlined grabbing aspects -- headline grabbing aspects of your budget is a new tax on millionaires. it's not expected to raise a lot of money, particularly in the
context of the size of the new jersey budget. what's the main thinking about it? is it more about improving equality in the states or is it about raising revenue? gov. murphy: first of all, it's good to be on. i'm coming at you from newark, new jersey. we presented a budget that will year-over-yearon in sustainable savings, largely through health-care related costs with our public-sector employees. it is a budget that also stabilized our fiscal reality, invest in the middle class, and it asks for tax fairness for the very wealthiest among us. about 18 to 19,000 out of million who called her home new jersey, to pay those fair help otherwe can middle-class needs that have been unmatched during the entire
other administration. i'm proud of it and we suggested it a few days ago. romaine: there's always a challenge and balancing these issues, particularly when you talk about raising taxes. you were supposed to meet -- or ministration -- your administration was supposed to meet with the credit agencies yesterday. i wonder if you could share with us what they said about the budget? romaine: i did meet with the three big agencies. they were good discussions, largely fact-based. i will leave specifics aside, but nothing in those conversations surprised us. they are looking for the same things we are looking for. saveare you doing to costs? what are you doing to stabilize your reality, which means less reliance on one charge revenues, less fund diversions, bigger surpluses. they want to see a growing, vibrant economy which means we
are the quintessential middle-class state. public education, funded transportation, and you have steady streams of revenue that are reliable and predictable. and -- theircerns concerns and issues are what we expected. wasline: part of the budget the health care, renegotiating health-care contracts in particular with state employees. $800 million you will save through this. is this going to be replicated elsewhere? could you break down the savings by sector? gov. murphy: i don't know -- china new jersey -- i know new jersey, and those savings are real. we wouldn't say we would achieve them if we couldn't. reduction year-over-year from this fiscal
budget this year into next year's, which is a significant reduction, not just in government circles but including the private sector. has come with working the public-sector unions and not jamming things down their throats. this is working through them with the plan design committees, through collective bargaining, not lowering the health care members, ortheir not making their members pay more, but to the contrary, delivering a health care savings more efficiently. whether that is a model for others to follow, i'm not sure. our conversations have not ended. we presented our budget at a moment of time where we can say with confidence it was $800 million in savings. i'm hopeful we can find more savings, not just in health care, but health care going forward. joe: let's talk about national issues beyond the budget. sinceou talked to amazon
they announced they are pulling out of their long island city plan about establishing their second headquarters in new jersey? gov. murphy: i have spoken to amazon. the fact of the matter is, s thousands of people in new jersey. those are necessarily headlines for us because they are a big presence here. i reiterated that the new work -- newark story is getting better by the day, it is compelling, we have the land, we have the story, the trajectory. i believe it continues to be a great story, not just for amazon, but for companies who are looking to put an anchor in a community like this. that, at itsn peak, had 500,000 residents. today it has somewhat under 300,000. we have the bones for a big
company to come in and employ folks and for folks to live your , and not push those out to have fought to stay all of these decades. the answer is yes and newark is open for business. caroline: will amazon remain open for business? we've heard from elizabeth warren, wanting to break up some of these large tech companies, particularly focusing on amazon. i want to get your perspective on whether you agree with these policies and where you see the democratic party moving in general. progressive or remain more moderate? gov. murphy: i was only told of as i wasarren's plan walking in, so i will have to beg ignorance on that. i'm getting involved in our party, in the democratic governors association, and that is an important organization for us.
new jersey,fe is in and i would say, here, we have occupied a space. somebody tagged me as a progrowth progressive. i will take that. importantly, those two notions are not at odds with each other. we believe they feed on each , put differently, we believe you don't make economic progress without social progress or vice versa. i think that is a space that feels right for us in new jersey. we can stand for minimum wage ,oing up, earn sick leave funding planned parenthood, sensible gun safety laws, sensible immigration reforms and policies, but at the same time, be open for business. business is big, small, and in between. that's a place we continue to occupy, and it feels right to me. romaine: thank you, governor, for joining us. that's governor phil murphy
romaine: the u.s. economy added 20,000 jobs in february, the fewest we have seen since 2017. wage gains indicated a tightening labor market. here to talk more about that data and what it means for the fed, let's bring in diane, a chief economist at grant thornton. thatuestion i guess everyone wants to know, is this
20,000 number a harbinger for gloom and doom for the labor market or is this something that we don't need to worry about and will be trending a above the average in no time soon? >> its ahead bag. january was artificially boosted the kids government workers were not only counted as on-the-job when they weren't, they were also taking on part-time jobs to make up for the lost income they had during the month of january and the government shutdown. we had unusually bad weather which we don't normally get in february. that hurt construction. i think we will see a slowdown in employment as we just dealt with a slowdown in growth in 2019. joe: diane, one equivocally bit of good news is that average hourly earnings is hitting its highest level year-over-year since the crisis. that being said, does the salience of that number had into
decline since powell made clear his view that we could tolerate higher wage growth without it being an inflation scare. diane: it is an inflation scare -- isn't an inflation scare yet. we had higher wage workers and professional services, accounting for the 20,000 gains. that helped out that number. it's important to note the composition of wage games, we have seen a increase in entry-level wages. we haven't seen a trickle up into middle income households so they are still wanting out there. likenies, large companies amazon, walmart, have increased entry level, frontrunning increasing minimum wage at the state and local level, but they have cut management pay or cut the number of managers. also, hours worked were down, meaning the take-home pay didn't quite match the higher wages. whatine: educate us to
other data points we should be looking to in what might be affected by this. if we have people having more money to spend at the lower end of the income scale, will that be good news in terms of the retail scales? we get retail sales numbers next week. are you looking to their being a beinged slowdown -- there a mediated slowdown but growth goes forward in the u.s. in general? diane: i think the numbers will still be on the downside. we had horrible retail sales, and all of the data is still lagging. we are suffering the government shutdown and are in a a bit of a day to avoid and trying to come back. you need a lot of revisions to make the december numbers not look ugly. that is something i'm worried about. that said, there was a law at the start of the year and -- atal at the start -- lull the start of the year.
global growth is something i'm watching closely because we are not an island. we are not insulated from what happens abroad. joe: do you think the fed is as worried -- romaine: do you think the fed is as worried as that with the data we have gotten? diane: they have been confirmed by week data and the fed lines will stay -- weak data and the feds will stay on the sidelines and halt the kleins going forward in their balance sheet. there is still debate in the fed on what the balance sheet affect has on economies and markets, but they have gotten a message from markets. i think you will see that move in march as well. thefed has been clear concerns about trade, concerns europe, those are on their list and are on the downside, not the upside. caroline: such a great global perspective. diane swonk, grant thornton chief economist. china slump, more on how a
single so reaching target a spell -- tailspin. theill be talking about $345 billion of losses for investors in china. this is on the back of poor data , particularly when it comes to trade, exports, imports. joe: i'm really fascinated by this story, this idea that one downgrade could catalyze a gigantic market selloff and what investors read into the downgrade that's caused this, it was really fascinating. romaine: how pretty much everyone automaticly assumed this would be dictated to them. caroline: it's a state backed brokerage. we're looking at the key pivot point of what has been holding of share prices overall. we will be digging into that's much more and giving you what you didn't know on the story. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. in alabama, trump and melodia surveyed the damage left by tornado last week. of 23 crosses row representing each life taken by the twister. the trumps met privately with survivors and family members affected by the tornado. a warmsident received reception from volunteers at the local church, where he signed hats and bibles. the democratic house approved limits light -- legislation reducing the role of big money in politics, ensuring fair politics and strengthening ethics statements. >> hr one restores the people's
faith that government works for the public interest, the people's interest, not the special interests. that faith and confidence is a treasure that is fundamental to a democracy that people believe. the measure stands little chance in the republican senate, where mitch mcconnell says it will not come up for a vote. issued a vetoe threats. dozens of women took istanbul on international women's day in of ance of her posttest -- protest to denounce violence. security forces pushed the crowds of women at the entrance to the main pedestrian shopping street. the associated press colts won
of the officers as saying our aim at performing this activity is to show a woman's strength. a woman is equal, a woman is a mother, and she continued that if a woman is strong, society is strong. if society is strong, the world is happy. jeremy corbyn says labor will not be voting for may's brexit divorce still next week. his priority was to prevent a no deal exit from the european union. take noll be voting to deal off of the table and putting our proposals which are custom union, market action, and others. mark: prime minister may is trying to present -- prevent another defeat. she's asking the eu to make concessions to help her win approval from parliament. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. cueline: traders took a from a rare rating from the world's largest brokerage as aside the government was to pump the brakes on the rally, ending the shanghai composite's apricot streak. today, -- eight week hot streak. today, we ask our guests if this was a selloff. >> i think consolidation is not bad for markets. chinese equities have rallied fast, so it is not necessarily bad for markets. >> the economy is slowing globally. most economies are experiencing this slowdown, but also, more central banks are becoming more dovish. that should help the cycle to extend in our view. >> china is one of the markets that nobody can ignore.
will become a destination, the second largest economy in the globe, but a lot of the stuff we see in global markets. caroline: for more on china's -- let'st's ring and bring in our next guest from washington. you're managing $14 billion and our former treasurer of the world bank. you were in em helping them set up and get into the markets. what do you make of the china slowdown as it is being wanted by the government? >> i've been going to china for more than 25 years. looking at it through the historical lens today would lead me to say that even if we see a slowdown, on a relative basis, china is moving so much faster other -- mostst
other emerging markets and the developed world. the numbers are not exact in china, and if you compare them to india, they might lower. believeese economy, we at rock creek, is still going to be an interesting place to invest and there are specific sectors in china, even as the market might cool slightly that's will continue to be very interesting. such as health sectors in china, which is booming. risksalk to us about the of investing in china when, overnight, the government, or it would appeal the government because this was a state owned could print a bubble .nd engineer 4.5 selloff afsaneh: it depends on if you are looking at the longer term
or day by day. over threeooking months, six months, one year, three years, five years in china, those may not be the thing to worry about. you have to think about more structural changes in china. you are seeing is infrastructure is getting built rapidly in china. you see a lot of, whether it is the ai or data science or stem moving fast in china -- stem, moving fast in china. is that there are at talk to market forces that will hold it back. if you have a longer-term view markets, they will be an interesting place to invest. you talk about global stability, i want to move away from china and talk about latin america and the changes we see in brazil. i wonder how you factor in what
ofgoing on there and some the neighboring nations as well with regards to stability, financial stability and economic stability. afsaneh: in brazil, we are going through a political transition, economic transition. we are expecting some reform of the pension schemes which is a major thing. it is an area i worked on a long time ago. lot ofou are seeing a change, whether we look at mexico and trade agreements with the u.s., or you are looking at the political upheaval next door in venezuela. a lot is going on in latin america. in latin america, unita need to know the local market extremely able to continue investing there. that is why global investors have to find really good local partners in any of these countries. there are certain pockets that
are interesting, even with the upheaval we are seeing. brazil is the shining light for the moment, but there are big questions, politically, as to if that will last. joe: do we do a disservice to emerging market investment by taking such a macro approach? we talk about china's demand is i canal, it seems conversation is what is going on with chinese demand and the fed. then, you get the emerging market reaction. is that a poor guide to what is going on in your view? afsaneh: i think so, in the sense that what happens with u.s. interest rates for the countries in e.m.'s that are borrowed in u.s. dollars, there is no question that has a huge impact. at the same time, this country -- these countries differ from each other. when emerging market indices were created, it was a different time and place.
today, each of these countries is behaving differently than the --ers from our resource others. some are resource importers, some are exporters, some have a -- have a lot of people.ducated to put them under one rubric would not be ideal. caroline: talking about making gross generalizations, it is international women's day and i want to get your perspective. you have done research into the lack of prevalence of women in leadership roles. i want to get your take on what is constraining performance. we need hard facts and what can be changed if the dollar will move in anyway. afsaneh: we did this interesting study which was just launched with the ifc. , it's gotlls us
launched yesterday, we did a private equity and venture firms in the emerging markets. the findings are interesting. as you would not be surprised, the number of women in private roles isin senior quite low in e.m. guess what, that number is higher than in the u.s. you would ask, how would that happen? the largest share of women in private equity and venture, as well as entrepreneurial companies, is in china. report,ings of this which is probably the biggest study off private equity and sharee investing and the of women in this sector was very interesting. sometimes, not having negative issues is a positive. afsaneh: absolutely right. caroline: afsaneh beschloss,
thank you for being with us. from rockcreek. romaine: the trump is formally nominating david bernhardt to have the u.s. interior agency. he is serving as the acting interior secretary currently. he has been at the agency often worked the years and has in washington as a lobbyist or for the government for quite some time now. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
about these factors, and i'm sure there's a longer list. let's start with venezuela. there really and investable opportunity, in the moment now, in venezuela? >> at the moment, u.s. investors are sanctioned, so i would say no. there is not what you can do in terms of purchasing bonds, but at a point in time, there will be a regime change and it probably won't be years, rather weeks or months. the country does provide attractive opportunities. is apoint, where there regime change, we expect sanctions to be lifted. havebrazilian investors liked what they have seen, is there further to go from a risk reward standpoint. shamaila: a lot of the --
corporate governance is brazil,ng in as well as the currency on a more strategic basis. right now, we are concerned about e.m. the facts. from a strategic perspective, we like the turkish lira. caroline: is a quick a great -- there's question the joe asked our next guest on whether we focus on certain elements of china are on full gear and what the fed is up to. how much does the dollar play into this and how much exposure can you get from the local currencies? shamaila: i think the dollar is very important. if you go back one year, the dollar was extremely important. it was the dollar strengthening the cause weakness in e.m. believe that you should be
managing e.m. locals. it provides an excellent opportunity, but you should be managing e.m. fx more on a tactical basis. romaine: we're seeing people little concerned about what lopez over door will do -- lopez over door -- obridor. shamaila: mexico was a great story a couple of years ago and they started becoming cautious. peopleere a number of that thought investors weren't pricing in. we are concerned about the policies of amlo. one of the companies is on the brink of the low investment grade, which, if downgraded, could lead to billions of dollars of selling -- forced selling. electoral risk, political risk is front and center and many of these
discussions. let's talk about what is happening in argentina, in terms of electoral risks. how much of that will gets into the areas of debt market there? shamaila: argentina will be an important country to watch this year. the election results are likely to be having an impact on market prices. you have significant downside if he is replaced by cristina kirchner. ,hat is something we believe the market is perhaps overly optimistic of the prospects, considering how slow the economy is growing anti-inflation. where the that is political risk has to be assessed carefully. back, i want to go to go back to joe's point about the dollar and concentration of things. when we talk about emerging markets, so many people have said we are a little too
weighted toward asia, in particular, china. what is your take on that? there was a paper out this week that said investors are --rweighted in china emerging-market investors that is. what is your take? shamaila: the equity index is constructed toward asia and china. on the fixed side, that is not the case. we have many opportunities outside of asia, not only in latin america. at least, africa, europe. not yet in the e.m. indices, but maybe someday. caroline: shamaila khan, thank you so much. norway is dealing a blow to the oil industry. they are reducing their holdings in oil stocks. they say big oil, but send shockwaves through the industry. norway financehe minister about the decision. >> the risk the norwegian
government is only taking here, and removing these companies from the government pension from -- al will be better better attempt to reduce our aggravated oil price risk. >> the biggest integrated companies are the biggest ones for exploration. do you feel confident this is enough of a hedge given they are the biggest wants to export for oil? >> the integrated companies are also the companies that want to invest more in renewable energy. if we had it from those companies as well, we would have reduced the investment scale to a certain extent that was not recommendable. >> how much do you expect the integrated companies to invest in renewables? now, ist we see, for that investments are growing. ands an interesting market
the pension fund will not be able to invest in those companies in the future. >> if time goes on and they are not making enough investments and renewal, do you think you would look at this issue and possibly drop the integrated companies alongside the fully expiration companies? siv: the government has taken a final position today. parliament will take the final decision before we implement this together with the norwegian bank. this will be a slow process, but as you're aware of, we are how totly monitoring develop the investment strategy for the fund, but we do it slowly and with our analysis behind it. >> the next step, it goes to parliament. do you think this decision today, is not adding the integrated oil companies, was a political compromise? siv: no.
process,been a long based on advice given to us by the central bank. we have taken our time and based our decision on financial issues. caroline: that was norway's finance minister, speaking with bloomberg. up, happy anniversary. a closer look at the bull market running since march 9 2009. meanwhile, i have to love you and leave you because i am "bloomberg technology" where we will be diving into senator warren's proposal to break up the big tech companies. romaine: i do know you were leaving. i didn't like surprises. caroline: enjoy your anniversary. this is bloomberg. ♪
anniversary of the u.s. equity bull market. here's a look at the record run over the past decade. the s&p 500'sf bull market is pegged to its closing price on march 9, 2009. the index closed at 676.53, the low point of the 17 month bear market that he raced 57% of value from equities. the next day, a new bull run will take root with the s&p rallying 65% by the end of that year. despite those gains, it was not until four years later that the finallyllion -- s&p recouped its losses and set a new high. the s&p has surged 200%, and annual equivalent of -- on august 8 of that year, the s&p fell an ominous 6.6 per's
that's six point 66%, the single worst day since the aaa credit rating was cut. >> the united states of america reddick rating -- credit rating was reduced. romaine: the bull market would rebound and become the longest on record in 2018. past the market scare this december had some people calling for an end, equity values had managed to carry-on. 500 -- i'd a lot of fun tracking this. it takes you down memory lane. 2009, this was the real catalyst. that was the day the government expanded what was tarp. joe: that was a pretty big day
in terms of the intervention. always forget about the downgrade. at the time, we thought this is a big deal, and it is completely irrelevant. romaine: it was a huge down day, but we rebounded fast. joe: also striking that we have had two 19.9% market selloffs since then. romaine: and that's not actually 20%. joe: that's exactly my point. it's kind of amazing how close we came to technical bear markets twice. we just started picking it up by the skin of our teeth. romaine: 18% annualized returns, 12 or markets -- 12 bull markets from the great depression. joe: don't miss this, the numbers for u.s. january retail sales come out on monday. romaine: u.k. lawmakers on wednesday may vote on legislation to leave the eu without a deal.
caroline: i'm caroline hyde in new york and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up in the next hour, breaking up big tech. elizabeth warren revealed a plan as she campaigns for president, taking aim at the power held by google, facebook, and amazon. china's exports are plunging on the trade war concerns, but president trump's top economic adviser says trump and xi jinping could meet as soon as this month.