tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg March 13, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
and again, and relatively benign ppi, so i think this is the story of this week. has becomec data more supportive defying expectations which were for free rough economic data for the first quarter. that is helped. >> you have the closing bell with all indexes in the green. given thataggard boeing -- but all others are higher. >> we are above 2800, will it hold? alwaysgh goal posts move. 2817 is what we're looking at this morning. a lot of people are seeing that as a bullish sign if we can break through. >> let's get more market analysis now and let's go to our markets team.
>> i've been keeping an eye on the only sector within retail that it managed to increase ticket sales in january. .hat is according to first data rt indicates strength fo ulta, and the stock has been rising for the past four days. bloomberg intelligence is saying it is a good chance it could and also exceed suggesting that we could see ourin expansion, and are number of retailers who wish that they could say that. >> i've been taking a look at today's best-performing sector, health care. the other 62 members in the index are only 5 lower. marks a turnit
because while it is up 6% year to date, that is only half of the return about the s&p 500 and that is still the worst performing sector of the year. wer the last three days, have seen health care start to accelerate. , so thate top three begs the question, all of the talk about medicare for all and other policies that might affect health care, are they starting to wear off? let's take a look at the s&p 500 but before that, let's take a look at the aaii be ar breeding. there are lower lows -- aaii bea r reading. when we are down at the lows, it tells you that the bears are out of the way. when it is high, it tells you there is lots of bears sentiment. it has gone near 20,
that has preceded some back. course, the fourth quarter selloff is really outstanding -- or stands out that we have the bearish reading that down towards the lows of bouncing off. 2018, look back at 2017, and 2017 and 2016, there were lots of complacency there. level, the reason that matters is that as the high of all those different ranges and bouncing below that is not the greatest sign, especially in the congestion on a reversing year to date uptrend that does appear bearish. the sellers are a little more enthusiastic than the buyers. lots happening, but it seems the bears are starting to wake up. it, and our entire
markets team, we thank you. joining us now is the head of andicans asset allocation, still with us as gina martin adams of bloomberg intelligence. let's talk technicals. basically, there has been a complacency in the market. do you see that among your clients? >> we do see complacency among our clients. people have not bought into this rally. -- there ist fully a doubt about whether it is sustainable are not. where you do see some complacency, volatility for treasuries and fx is low, so i would be worried that there is too much complacency if the markets are priced in. i have been surprised by how much the markets have bounced back. the fact that we have bounced back quite a bit despite some of these other headlines with brexit and boeing, the data has
been good all things considered. the focus has really been are we going to come through and is this the early signs that the market is going to be ok by the second quarter. the first quarter, we know it is going to be rough. if this is an early sign that things are going to be ok by the second quarter, then the bars can fully capitulate -- the bears can fully capitulate. weaine: the question is have run a little too far ahead of that, especially when you consider that there are a lot of conflicting economic data point. -- data points. it tells you we are not as strong as we were. the said turning more dovish in the central banks, that is probably fully priced in. has been priced in positive on the trade with china, but the
next big catalyst for market to go higher comes down to the bears saying, growth is going to best be bad, or the bulls and saying, this is just a soft batch. as soon as the markets sniff it out, we could potentially even testing the highest for september. it sounds like we are at a crossroads and certainly divided. what is the biggest risk from where you sit? we closed above 2800 again, what could take us back down and have us revisit some of those we have seen? risks, monetary is always a risk to the market. the market could anticipate a much tighter said that in his expected at this point in time, and the ecb continues to let down markets and europe. what is china do with monetary
policy. and then the economic data. we have reached a full valuation levels, but it really is up to drive a much better earnings outlook to drive stocks higher. if the economic data fails to satisfy the expectations, bloomberg's consensus is that we get 6% earnings growth and 11% in 2020. this anticipation that we are in an earnings chop on top of the fact that monetary policy is relatively supported. one of those two things is most likely to cause problems or support the market going forward. >> where else should people be looking at? are looking at u.s. equities and also -- >> is morgan stanley something to worry about? jason: it comes down to is the valuation extreme.
see a lot ofy money flowing in on the retail side, but the fundamentals of seem like there are rooms for improvement. >> e.m. including china? jason: including china. >> interesting because china is the best-performing stock market this year. romaine: it is. but are you seeing more allocation? i was talking to someone this morning and they were pointing out the negative correlation between bonds and stocks is back to something more reasonable in terms of historical averages. what are you seeing? jason: one thing you are seeing are rates coming down. bonds and equities have done well, which is the reverse of last year. the other thing that i think it's interesting and in environmental and we are at a crossroads where people are trying to decide if growth is better or not, it is not a bad environment to carry trades in general. when we had the selloff last
week, your small-cap stocks in the u.s. were down around 1.5%, high yield was down 20 basis points. you are looking at the same set of companies. there is aggest that relatively low supply, spreads have held ok, rates have, in, and if the fed is on hold for a long time, that as my bad environment. -- if youthe lever are a ceo, and you have heard the recession is coming, you have to prepare for that. i think that might be premature. i think credit is not a bad area to get some carry, at least for the time being. , thank youson dragho so much. and gina martin adams. that does it for the closing bell, and what you miss --"what'd you miss?" is next.
after much of the world already idles the planes. and pressure on google, a couple challengese facing the silicon giant. we begin with brexit. the u.k. parliament has confirmed the vote to reject a no deal scenario. what about the eu. from get that take brussels today, the ball is being put in the eu's court, because none of this is legally binding. no deal, but wants the eu has to allow them to extend. .> right they have to allow the u.k. to make that extension, the u.k. have to request it, and they have to agree on it, but by what terms? we are looking at a two-month extension or perhaps something beyond. it could god that
until may, but they want to see it clear at a plan from the time -- the prime minister, so that is a deal that will get the votes it needs to pass or a more radical option which is a new vote. i would also point out that the word from the prime minister who was also not conceded and the only way to stop a new deal is a vote for a new deal. vote for anve to extension and it looks like prime minister may will ask for one. u.k. government is setting a motion for a deadline of march 20 to get a deal done. they say the u.k. government is presenting a short extension if a deal is passed by march 28. .asically -- march 20 basically, a short postponement, they have to get an agreement amongst themselves of what an exit deal would look like.
otherwise, they will have to go past may. keep puttingthey be short time frames on this which exasperates the situation. tried to put some pressure on the u.k. to just sort of wrap this up? whether it goes no deal order it is, this seems to be in overhang that the eu does not need. maria: they did, and that was in many ways the message. we heard from the lead negotiator from the eu that said, it is done. every memberto all needom now on we to step up for no deal preparation. that is what he told the european parliament today, but , but europeanre need to movehat we
forward for you you also have national countries like spain which will have an election in two months. we have a caretaker government. withbviously have macron other things to worry about, and angela merkel, so there are many other things they want to focus. lost ins that gets translation, but there are many more things that brussels needs to worry about. caroline: certainly is. painting a very clear picture, maria tadeo, we thank you. for more on this, we are joined at dorsey, a partner and whitney, a top tech industry lawyer in london. boy, there are plenty of complexities with brexit. try to carve out some sort outline line of what you think happens next, what will you be going to the companies tomorrow
when they need clarity? francis: i am not want to be able to give them any clarity. like everyone else, we are in a slightly unfair situation. the same situation that we have been in for some months. it looks likely that there will be an extension to the deal, but we do not know how long that extension is for. what the outcome at the end of the extension will be. thelikelihood is that extension will be voted for tomorrow. reaction wasmarket pretty positive largely because it did appear with the vote there are a few parliamentarians who are in favor of avoiding a crash out. the question is, is it sort of too little, too late? so many businesses have already pivoted, can this be reversed or arraigned in? frances: that is the hope. what was clear tonight is that the one thing that parliament has been able to agree upon all
the way along the line is that they do not want a crash out of the eu without a deal. beyond that, there is not agreement for anything else. the we be able to turn back tide a little and introduce some certainty? i am very much hoping so over the next few weeks. what is clear is that the the businesses of the u.k. have been dealing with since the referendum result, which has increased as time has gone on to this very high pitched atmosphere we have right now and it is not good for business. i, myself, work with tech companies and the tech community has been particularly affected by this uncertainty. caroline: we are getting some sort of clarity to the options on the table.
the u.k. government saying it they did get a deal in parliament, they would seek an extension until june 30. that is if a deal is passed by march. we are getting various dates, but on the ground, the tech companies that you are speaking -- how are the big precautionary measures taking? frances: none of this is happening in a vacuum. what i thought was quite interesting was in the very few days following the referendum result, the city of berlin mounted an advertising campaign in the city of london, and the calm, and was keep moved to berlin. there are lots of companies that are making decisions not to
settle in the united kingdom. we put this against the backdrop of what is an absolutely thriving ecosystem within the united kingdom. world'sthe leading universities here, and incredible ecosystem -- large corporates choosing to place their headquarters here. facebook and google, their european headquarters are here, so it seems a shame that this uncertainty has been introduced time whenix at a really, we have so much to be very excited about. romaine: alright, we are definitely going to keep an eye on that. that is frances doherty. coming up, we peel back allegations against elon musk. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ caroline: now to bloomberg's businessweek new report on elon musk. he has falsely claimed on twitter that investors have put up funds to take tesla private and that led to a lawsuit. in bloomberg's businessweek, you can read about all of the other goings-on that musk has been up to. appointedc has been -- appointed him a twitter sitter. it is an extraordinary story. the whistleblower at one point saying that the drugs were going tory, and hegafac almost had a vendetta on his
back from that moment. are actually three different whistleblowers, two of whom are interviewed in this story and the third is the subject. the engineer that you mentioned at a top. lastthe clock back to summer. all of these news items coming out and this was first reported by business insider about safety issues at the giga factory. butas not that big a story, as we report, it sent musk and tesla security operations into a frenzy. to this would be whistleblower, this person who claims he was a whistleblower to be stopped by police and as it turned out, falsely accused of threatening to go on a shooting spree at tesla. story,t damning in the the report that tesla's communication department
continue to push the story even after it had been debunked. one of the other whistleblowers in this is a security personnel, someone he has high up, and been speaking about this. sean, and he is was the security manager at the gigafactory, and what he reveals, besides the issue with martin tripp the engineer, lengthsxtraordinary that tesla will go to squash on its, keep an eye employees, and it is important to say that tesla has said from the top, this guy is not credible. they do not trust them. he has nk he got -- an ax to grind because he was fired.
but disturbing allegations. caroline: but it is continuing to do rather well at, in fact, musk has managed to make achievements with the space x but also, model y. the unveiling we are expecting and l.a. tomorrow, he says it is an suv that is 10% bigger than the model 3. what are the expectations on this? clearly, model y is unveiled tomorrow. max: this is what makes tesla so amazing, where he elon musk is getting into trouble in ways that seem preventable and in other, tesla is doing really well. if history is any indication, musk will do a fabulous job promoting this. he is a wonderful salesman. thing that they are
be ang -- there might worry if you were an investor that this could cause people to wait and not by -- buy model 3. romaine: what is the model y price? max: musk said it will be slightly more expensive, so probably around $40,000 to start and $50,000 if you want to have the normal thing that everyone will buy. caroline: bells and whistles. always great to get your perspective. check out this story, online at bloomberg.com. reportersrom top every weekend. appleglobal pressure, why is next for the europe antitrust chief. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: president trump says the united states is rounding all flights of boeing 737 max aircraft following the model's second crash in five months. the president made the announcement from the white house this afternoon, saying "the safety of the american people and all people is our paramount concern." president trump: we are going to be an issuing an emergency order of prohibition to ground all andhts of boeing 737 max-8 737 max 9 and planes associated with that line. mark: officials are still investigating sunday's crash in
ethiopia that killed all 157 people on board. the plane went down six minutes after takeoff en route to nairobi. paul manafort was sentenced to a total of 7.5 years in prison today after a federal judge rejected his appeal for no additional time and criticized him for his crimes and years of lies. his lawyer spoke to reporters outside federal court in washington. >> for anyone who was in the courtroom today, what i am about to say is not a surprise. judge jackson conceded there was absolutely no evidence that any russian coalition in this case -- collusion in this case. mark: prosecutors in new york brought state charges against manafort, a move partly designed to guard against the possibility that president trump could pardon him. the president can pardon federal
crimes, but not state offenses. the british parliament today voted to reject the u.k. leaving the european union with no deal. a vote was 312-308. it increases the chance of a brexit delay. a spokesman for the eu commission says the vote against no deal is not enough to stop a no deal brexit. prime minister theresa may suggests an extension of the march 29 brexit deadline could force the u.k. to participate in the european legislative elections in may. george pell, an australian cardinal, the vatican's chief financial officer, has been sentenced to six years in prison for molesting two boys in 1996. the cardinal was convicted in december. during today's sentencing, the judge told him "your conduct was permeated by staggering arrogance." shorterence falls
than the 50 years maximum sentence. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. romaine: thank you. apple is facing an antitrust accusation from spotify. spotify filing a complaint with the european union. the music company alleging that apple was squeezing out rival streaming services. for more, let's bring it noah smith from san francisco. applessue going on with as part of a bigger trend we have seen. in the u.s., we have talked about how to rein in some of these big tech companies. in europe, whether it is facebook, now apple, we are seeing some attempts to go after these companies that are successful. noah: well, maybe successful, maybe not. it remains to be seen. the thing is people are focusing
on antitrust because that is the traditional thing we are used to do. we broke up bell, standard oil. the idea is to be forced companies to compete, you get lower prices and higher wages for workers. while that is true, i think the technology industry involves a lot of issues like these network effects that i.t. creates that we are not as present in former iterations. we have to deal with that. it is a new playing field. caroline: new playing field, one that startups are coming against the big companies here. spotify, yes, it is listed. it is a big dominant force in the music streaming industry, but it is small compared to apple. coming out perhaps trying to curtail the business. services could be under stress. what did you make of the playing field when it comes to european points of order like this versus the u.s., because we have seen success in europe when it comes
to market, for example -- forcing google to rewrite the way it does some of its business. do you think that things like this tend to do better in europe? noah: europe's approach has been very regulation heavy. it has not been antitrust heavy. that has good and bad effects. gdpr and a number of other things. there is good and that affects. the good effect is that antitrust, forcing companies to break up and compete has uncertain affects. regulation, you know what you are getting. you know exactly -- a, google, we want you to do this, do this. the downside is regulation actually entrenches the position of these dominant players because only the big companies have the budget and structure to comply with the regulations. little startups trying to compete with them cannot handle
those regulations. romaine: when you look at the sentiment, noah, that has been going on around the world, particularly in the u.s., trying to push a more progressive agenda, do you really see a threat to some of these larger tech companies that we could see something stateside with regards to breaking them up? noah: absolutely. elizabeth warren just released a new comprehensive plan that would do some breakups. enforce facebook, whatsapp, instagram, things like that. it would also focus on creating a bunch of new regulations for large companies. focusing on the regulatory side and breakup side. something like that is probably coming down the pipe. the -- i don't know the vagaries of politics, but that is a thing on people's mind. sentiment has turned against a tech companies on a number of issues. things like privacy, things like who owns your data. and, also worries that companies
like amazon could hurt small businesses. caroline: let's get your opinion, which one is the right way? is it better to split them up? does that help foster more growth in the startup? is it about regulation, that could stamp out future startups because they cannot deal with the likes of gdpr? if we did see a more hostile environment building in the united states to breed competition, would you want both of these plans of attack or do you think regulation or antitrust wins out? noah: i think it really depends on the company and really depends on the market. that is an unsatisfying answer. for example, with facebook, it is easy to say -- whatsapp, instagram and facebook should can be for different segments of the market. you could create more competition that way. for google, it is not really clear. you could force them to spin off their search advertising and other advertising, but it is not clear what that accomplishes.
maybe reducing company prices for ads. maybe. then, so, with things like privacy, competition is not really going to help. i think five companies that don't respect your data privacy is not better than having one big company. for that, we really have to regulate. for something like amazon, you could force amazon discipline itself up into a bunch of e-commerce websites, but that will annoy people because they would have to go shopping on a bunch of different websites. eventually, you will see reconsolidation because people will want an everything store and you are right back where you were. instead, the best approach might be a nondiscrimination standard where amazon is not allowed to lever it special tools to compete with the sellers that sell on its platform. one could actually prevent amazon from offering products to compete with third-party sellers. that would be a very significant form of regulation. i think it really depends on the market, it depends on the
company, it depends on the situation. both approaches will be needed. caroline: getting specific for us. noah smith, thank you. quick check on the pound because we are hitting further session highs. nearly two percentage points higher. the british crown versus the u.s. dollar. clearly, the market thinks we will get some sort of delay to brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪
high degree of competitive urgency. clearly, justin does as well. more importantly, justin believes in giving back to the communities. it is one of our core values. so, we've had an opportunity to do things with justin over the last couple of years. we saw him with our clients, spending time with our ceo on this, it became a no-brainer. >> the story is pretty phenomenal from your rise in the west side of chicago to where you are now. we will get that from you at another time, but perhaps you can tell us why it is important to give back to the younger people. tell us about that. justin: absolutely. my wife, we have a foundation called the kay and justin rose foundation. we have become closely affiliated. we raised some money for our organization. we have added books to backpack through book trust. this week, very proud to partner with morgan stanley on a campaign called eagles for
impact. every eagle made, morgan stanley will provide 1500 bucks for children all over the country, with a goal of up to 75,000 bucks. last year, it was 96,000 books given out. literacy is a foundation for education. having a great career in wherever that may be, business or any other avenue a kid may choose. >> morgan stanley, our foundation for over 50 years, we have been intentional about giving back. specifically giving back to jump people. whether it is the morgan stanley children's hospital or partnering with book trust, it is at the core of our giving strategy. book trust has made a lot of sense for us because it is something we belong, aligned ourselves to. >> one of the big question facing golf is how to reach out to the young people to get them to play more golf. what is the answer to that? justin: i wish i knew exactly. i think, golf is in good hands,
in my opinion. there was a period of time when tiger was not on the scene. a lot of great guys stepped up. ,ickie fowler, jordan spieth the fans really seemed to relate to. there are initiatives, whether it be topped off. i think top golf is a great form of introducing people to golf, that also want to have a drink with friends. par three golf, nine-hole golf. many different forms you can get your toes in. what we need to do is drive people towards the traditional form of 18 holes of golf. there are many steppingstones. >> i have to ask you about who you will be chasing this year. first of all, who do you think you will have your sights on for the entire year? you want to retain the fedexcup after all. justin: after all. the fedexcup will be great to go back to back. the top players are playing
really well. dustin johnson seems to be back in for. brooks koepka can play well at any moment. rory mcilroy is on the leaderboard, i think there is a breakthrough for him soon. great weekend at bay hil. l. he's always dangerous. accuracy is a premium. to get to the top, you will have to face many challenges. i always try to look at myself, not outward, but inward and focus on my game and where i need to improve. there are still many areas of my game that need touching up. >> finally, i will ask you both, mandell, give me yours first. mandell: i think he is already over index as it relates to what the initial expectations were when he came back. the trials and tribulations that he faced are fairly well-documented.
tour championship last year, i think there were a lot of folks including his competitors that were rooting for him. that is great for the game. it has been a bolt of energy that i think everyone is benefiting from. we will see what 2019 brings. i think i have to be pretty clear here, morgan stanley is rooting for one individual any happens to be sitting to my right. his name is trust i -- is justin rose. justin: so, i was delighted and relieved to see tiger come back at the end of last year. with tiger, "what you wish for. we know what he is capable of. to see him looking well, walking around the golf course with that characteristic aura he has, he moves the needle on tour. people love watching him play golf. i think there is a major championship for him down the line. his game is so suited for the majors. his wealth of experience will shine through in those
scenarios. i would expect him to maybe with a major in the next year or two. if he does that, that will get him one step closer to jack nicklaus which should give him a new lease on life that he needs to surpass jack. him, but i road for think that ultimate goal will drive him. caroline: justin rose talking about another golfer there. time for smart charts, where we walk through the latest market analysis. time to get over to abigail. abigail: joining me today -- research partners. todd, you have been thinking a lot about tech. the s&p 500 up three days in a row. on the year, up 10%. you have a chart showing tech is outperforming. todd: i think the s&p back into the range as defined much of the last year.
2800, 2600. we like what is going on under the surface. tech is reasserting leadership after taking the back cap of 2018 on. what is important here is its cap weight tech and equal weight tech relative is outperforming. not just microsoft, apple outperforming, it is the whole group. abigail: you mentioned the range. our going back down or breaking? todd: i think there is a chance we could get back over, but i want to see other sectors pick it up. mainly industrials, financials, rather do just -- than just tech. abigail: let's take a look at china tech because some people are saying it is leading it higher. todd: i think you look at chinese technology names. you have a 40% decline in 2018. similar magnitude in 2015 and 2016, and similar in 2011 and
2012. both of those the clients are ahead of itself. i think that is what is happening in 2019. i would be a buyer and pulled back on the chinese tech names. we think they are timely. 40% decline is very substantial. there is room to run over the next year. abigail: is that a bottoming pattern, breaking out of that range? todd: it is not going to be parallel perfect to what we saw before, but i think you have the low at $40. abigail: let's turn back to a big u.s. tech name, apple, which has a lot of exposure in china. tying the two together. todd: another 40% decline last year. 2016 saw it as well. 2014, 40% decline. both of those spent the next few months repairing themselves. what we really like about the current is it is being met with a lot of skepticism. analyst recommendations are a decade lows. we love when stocks go up on bad news, on skepticism.
a ton of negative headlines for apple. we think this is one, any sort of dip in the 160 area adding exposure to. abigail: if we look at the previous bottoming period out of 2013 -- the issue at that time was markets. 2016 was a revenue issue. and then the big ipo issue here. going back down to the low several times. do you think we could go back to the one 40's or so? todd: i think 160 is a pretty good area. this is a name that has had headline after headline thrown at it. it eventually does work its way higher, i want to keep that in mind for the long-term perspective in terms of adding exposure on any sort of dip. abigail: you would be adding on any dip. luke capital was -- kind of bear ish talking about china weakness. ubs is saying something about that, that we will continue to see iphone weakness. we have the upcoming earnings season. if the stock were to fall back
down, as it occurred for months over the last bottoming period, you would be buying the weakness? todd: yes, especially if the skepticism stays there. abigail: you love the fact they are getting more and more bearish. todd, thank you so much for joining us. somewhat neutral on the s&p 500 what you love tech, china tech and apple. thank you for joining us. caroline? romaine: coming up, data out of china expected to show investment recovery continuing in 2019. caroline: that story is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
to talk about this. we have been hearing about this big data which i think is a strange way to characterize it but when we going to find out? shery: we care because it is the first set of data out of china this whole year. in january, we had no data. the lunar new year holiday so they tend to group these two months together. given we haven't talking about how china has lowered its growth target to 6.5%, we have been wondering how the chinese economy has done. we are expecting this evening at 10:00 p.m. eastern to get industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment and the jobless rate. the ones we care about the most -- retail sales and fixed asset investment, because we saw earlier that was more aggregate financing, more liquidity in the market. did this filter through into the real economy? it seems that the numbers are stabilizing a little bit. they are expected to stay at around the same level that they did back in december. caroline: meanwhile, we've had
snapshots of some concerns coming from china. this is a clear data dump. we did get signs of imports and exports being pretty weak. this is important as we hear from robert lighthizer payday -- increasedng we have -- the power to increase tariffs. shery: especially when you have the chinese having exports falling 60% on year against the u.s. -- 16% on the year against the u.s.. the wondering we are hearing that they really want to compromise and buy more from the united states, but as you said, we are not getting that many details about what we could finally see in that trade agreement. in the meantime, optimism is still there. people think we are going to get an eventual trade deal. we are seeing the yuan become the second-best performer in asia this year. not to mention a-shares are rallying. romaine: these assets are on
fire. shery: chinese air shares are doing great. rallyingx and shenzhen 35% this year. what is interesting is when you see this rally, hong kong is also rallying, but as you can see on this chart, the p-ratio and a-shares are now pricier than h-shares in hong kong which is usually not the way that goes. suffice it to say, when it comes to mainland stocks, 60% of investors or retail investors are driven largely by sentiment. caroline: sometimes they are the canary in the coal mine. always great to get your expertise. more from shery on daybreak asia at 7 p.m. eastern. as they three of brexit u.k. house of commons vote on legislation to delay the withdrawal of the eu is not over yet. romaine: broadcom reports its first quarter earnings after the bell.