tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg March 25, 2019 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
through today, they were supposed to unload those provisions but clearly, russell 2000 up 50 basis points and that was not the case. caroline: the resiliency in the market despite friday's selloff. joe: only it started to change those positions. >> despite friday's selloff, further significant. >> only down 7/10 of a percent. >> we are below that level. if you look at the best performers, you've got -- caroline: looking a little bit more at technology, chips led the decline. >> this is going back to a lot of earnings reports where there were a lot of questions about what the demand picture looks
like including renewed risk -- renewed concerns about a recession. look at a'm taking a very interesting divergence. in blue, the 10 year yield. in white, the s&p 500. we see that the 10 year yield was at roughly 3%, the s&p 500 roughly at 2800. we saw the 10 year yield back up to about three and a quarter. climbed ate s&p 500 that time. of course we had that brutal fourth quarter where there were lots of fears around global growth slowing. of course the beginning of the fed pivot, we see the s&p 500 take off, bond yields going lower. look at the huge divergence. how low is too low?
to come back in and support the s&p 500, past trading history would suggest if it is just fed and central-bank policy, it will be fine. the s&pgdp could hurt 500. >> a lot of the managed-care actually underperformed the market. the managed-care index is on pace to wipe out its gains again. it went negative, then sort of rallied at the start of this month. the key level a lot of analysts are talking about is this 100 week average. we are hovering about 7% above that. there's analysts say lot of sort of selling that has
been coming into this particular part of the market. remember, this is one of the most overweight sectors of the equities market right now. jessica: i'm looking at the commodities space and i can't take my eyes off of oil. wti hit the $60 per barrel mark last week but failed to close above it. it is back down around $59 per barrel. pay attention to the relationship between oil and the dollar. oil eased back off some of its losses there. finally, looking at the disruptions of venezuela citigroup coming out, saying those reductions would likely lead to brent averaging $70 a barrel this year.
>> thank you so much for that set up. we want to bring our conversation back to scott of wells fargo institute. health,as talking about jessica mentioned crude oil. you mentioned that the market needs to see broader equity leadership beyond technology. which sectors would be good candidates for that? >> the industrials would be. we need some progress with u.s.-chinese trade talked -- trade talks. it had a great bounce since the christmas lee -- christmas eve low, that's for sure. i'll commodities team is calling for a $65 price in wti by the end of the year. we think those earning estimates were brought down in the fall. probably some upside there. energy could participate. , joe mentioned profit taking. certainly we have been overweight health care for a
while and it has worked out really well. over the coming months, i would argue that really it is the bipartisanship which there is very little of today in congress. drug pricing is bipartisan. i think the market is a little bit worried about that. if you like health care, you have to like the pharmaceuticals and biotech. they are such a huge percentage of that cap. we like those. we think the pricing situation is overblown and we want to remain overweight health care. we were speaking to someone who was saying that volatility has still remain lower when you are looking at measures like this. should we be looking at measures like this anymore? >> obviously we do keep an eye on it. i speak with, as them,ors, the -- i asked
is it a real-time measure of volatility? a lot of times they answer no. you can see large price swings in a single day. the vix might barely move. that is something that comes up in conversation fairly often. >> scott, i want to ask you how the dollar factors in. one way you see anxiety and fear in the market is often with sort of knee-jerk dollar buying. dollar has been very high. nothing the fed can do to weaken it. how does that play into decisions? scott: we want to keep that in mind. we've been overweight emerging markets since september. they outperformed for the fall and that have been pretty even year to date. for us right now, this dollar strength is probably toward the top end of where it's going to be. we are looking for a little bit of weakness here. , whenou think about it
interest rates globally converge at a very low level, which we've had now, currency volatility gets to be pretty low. we wouldn't expect the dollar to make a big move from here. we think it might be slightly lower. that would certainly help with our emerging markets position that we've been looking at and we've been overweight. but welar is important don't think it will move enough that we need clients and their hedging their bets because they think a big move is going to happen. >> so we don't think the dollar will be as big an impact on earnings as we thought. ofre getting toward the end march which means another quarter of earnings to get to as well. what will be the big drivers you are looking for as companies start reporting their results?
>> companies are more pessimistic than we are. consensus looks like expectations are down about 3%. we are closer to flat. that is not a huge difference if 3% could get between 2% and every year. i think the thing this upcoming earnings season is that we could see some news that well europe is bad, and looks to be stabilizing and the results will analysis,st in our better than the market expected, and maybe more. 75% moreou get 65%, than that. >> that doesn't it for the
the back seat to other things including a credit card. volatility is back. emerging market assets are headed for more tumult with a rude awakening for investors. we begin with apple and their big pivot. apple, the world's biggest tech company, is reinventing itself as a digital services provider. aday, ceo tim cook announced range of new offerings. video gaming, payments. the new video push hasn't impressed everyone on wall street, closing lower on the day. let's bring in bloomberg's mark evans. they brought in the big guns in terms of the stars. did they align when it comes to what they are trying to achieve? >> it feels like they basically went to all of their major divisions and thought, what's a
major service we can come up with for your area? one is the app store. gaming is the most popular type of app on the app store. video. we have apple tv plus coming out of the fall. the launch later in the year and they will roll out tv shows and movies on about a monthly basis. news, they have this new magazine subscription service. this is something they acquired in an application called texture about a year ago. , publicationsines all in one place. from the apple pay division, you have this one credit card. it is interesting to see how apple will make money on this. it is a completely free fee credit card. my presumption here is they will get a slice of the apr's but
also a slice from mastercard and goldman sachs of the processing fees. there's more to come over the next few years. what is the symbolism of an event that is so much leaning on legacy giants, whether goldman sachs, oprah winfrey, steven spielberg. it really feels like they are attaching themselves to stalwarts of other industries who have been around a long time. i think they are trying to bring things people interact with every day into their digital arena. sacs, i think they were looking for a way to break into the consumer business. i would be very shocked if these credit card deals and all the terms here were not specifically apple's way or the highway.
hollywood hasn't been in love with netflix. some space toe squeeze in here. a new service seemed like a natural expansion of their service. those companies, name brands are attached to it, so i think it would make sense to partner with steven spielberg. romaine: in regards to the streaming service and the content to produce, what is really different this time around than what we got from the previous version of apple media and apple tv prior to that? mark: in one word, not much. or two words. i was really going to say nothing. look be told, it didn't much different. this did not seem like a big
step up. a big change here in the subscription service. unfortunately for investors, they didn't get much change in pricing in comparison to what amazon prime charges. something interesting i just want to add. today,ds we didn't hear apple music. it is interesting that they didn't really give an update on metrics there are any plans for that service despite noting it is one of their many services bundled into the iphone when you buy one. joe: mark, thank you very much. for more on apple's new credit card, what essentially is the pitch here in your view to people getting an apple credit card? >> the card will be automatically downloaded into your apple wallet. it will come with 2% cashback back on all purchases.
we'll get an extra 3% on apple products and services. the big pitch, if you love apple, use apple pay card. inherentlyt is technology first because you can't even get plastic. theonsumers who want physical card, they will have to request that. it is not going to have a card number, not going to have an expiration date. it's going to be a very different look and feel. goldman has been trying to get us -- get into this for a while. this is a totally different angle. cashback is more for consumers who don't pay attention to rewards. a more affluent customer will go for a points card that gives them miles or hotels, things
like that. they are going for maybe a little bit more of a downmarket customer with the cashback card. >> when you look at cards that are currently out the market, what is this comparable to? >> you think of apple, you think of goldman, you think of premium. this is not the richest card on the market by any stretch of the imagination. 2%pal, they already have a cash back card. there's a lot of comparisons out there which is kind of a surprise. both these companies, apple and goldman, they would want to make a splash on the rewards front. that is not the case here. romaine: coming up, the turkish lira recouped some of its friday slump. this is bloomberg. ♪
caroline: terminal users, we are going to be talking time trending across the bloomberg universe. the family that owns panera bread and krispy kreme doughnuts. it was discovered that during the nazi era, the company used russian civilians and french prisoners of war for forced labor. donatee now pledging to $11 million. on bloomberg.com, the story on explain the measures they've taken to get the 737 max back into service. over 200 is inviting pilots and regulators .
a company in japan opening four stories. the grocery chain will serve coffee, tea, and five cocktails. romaine: the turkish lira is rebounding after pledging more than 5% on monday. they signaled they are taking steps to bolster their reserves. joining us is the chief emerging markets credit strategist for bloomberg intelligence. fight on friday and this many fight today. what is triggering this? part, in regards to turkey, what we are talking
about here is reserves going off, a lot of locals buying them. what caught the headlines today is the fact that j.p. morgan came out with a sell recommendations after the march 31 elections which didn't go well with president erdogan, who had watchdogs conduct an investigation. joe: we had the selling in the middle of last summer. current account improves happened. is this a sign that there are some things that are not as rebalanced? >> we are expected to grow at 0.6% for the full year this year. you won't run into -- you will healthy ifomy very you are doing that. inflation spiking up.
gas, buy food, can't buy whatever they need to survive. take a step back and look at reserves. 50% of their total debt stack in turkey, those are extraordinary numbers. they will be very challenging for the central bank given the credibility concerns, to either inflate or grow their way out of this mess. caroline: you are talking about one of these key concerns, what was happening before the meanest bull elections. risks -- the nyssa pole elect -- the municipal elections. what are the risks to that? >> if you look back the last three years. three months into an election, you don't want to -- you want to sell that currency. two weeks preceding the election, that is a buying
signal. every time you look at sort of the craziness going on there, you kind of wonder why people invest there. in the category of em, they are still kind of the best deal out there. >> europe is a funny place. you have poland, the czech republic. you have to compare turkey, rated, to a turk -- two a brazil ouray south africa. a southbrazil or africa. this is kind of what is getting the market kind of going. caroline: it is quite amazing. morgan see how much j.p. is putting out and research notes going forward. a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. j.p. morgan chase. preparing for a no deal brexit scenario.
aroundk reportedly wants 300 london employees to find fresh contracts of eight deal is not reached. some employees will have to decide if they move to a different eu country or risk losing their jobs. offered to amend its debt documents. the pet superstore heads to quell concerns over an asset transfer. petsmart is reportedly willing to tighten its credit agreement --existing lenders obligations. a dispute with at&t. the deal would have kept millions of at&t customers from seeing cable channels such as nickelodeon and mtv. tension between carriers have increased in the age of cord cutting. that is your business flash. speaking of deals, rapper and actor ice cube is teaming up
with serena williams, snoop dogg, and kevin hart in a $10 billion bid to buy a regional sports network from disney. the ice cube dream team is competing with major league baseball and sinclair broadcast. generate newing to youth oriented content. it has got nas involved, ll cool j involved. >> i think that is the way they are sort of assembling these new ownership groups, trying to get the actual athletes involved, the content providers involved. joe: we side with apple today. get the stars involved in the business. caroline: i've got to say, hats off to nwa, which has sparked some key entrepreneurs out there. dr. dre, ice cube.
todaypresident trump accused of the people responsible of treason, and says they will certainly be looked at , but the president did not specify who he was referring to. speaking in the oval office during a meeting with visiting israeli president benjamin netanyahu, president trump told supporters that there are a lot of people out there who have done some very evil things, some very bad things. pres. trump: i love this country as much as i can love anything. god.mily, my country, my what they did, it was a false
narrative, it was a terrible thing. we can never let this happen to another president again. i say it very strongly. very few people i know could have handled it. mark: asked if he wants the special counsel's full report released to the public, the president said it would be up to the attorney general but that it wouldn't bother him at all. the israeli government today gazak targets across the strip. a surprise rocket attack. of heavypation fighting with the islamic militant group. withg the meeting president trump, prime minister said, "israel will not tolerate this. this."not tolerate
he issued a statement warning israel against heavy relative -- against heavy reallocation saying the -- the israeli action took place after a rocket was shot from the palestinian territory and left seven israelis wounded. u.n. secretary-general antonio guterres is warning israeli and palestinian leaders to exercise restraint. >> the secretary-general is concerned by the latest developments,. today's firing of a rocket from gaza into israel is a serious escalation. we are aware of reports of firing on gaza and are monitoring events. with they are working egypt and other concerned parties to try and de-escalate the situation. british prime minister theresa may says she does not have enough support to put her
european union divorce deal into a vote in parliament but she is still hoping to do so this week. she said today that she regrets britain is not set to leave the eu on march 29 as planned. global news on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. special counsel robert probe. concluded his >> i think mr. giuliani would be wise to wait until the report is made public before making any pronouncements, and likewise people should wait before saying how incriminating it is. >> we know there was some collusion. pres. trump: there was no collusion with russia, no obstruction and none whatsoever.
and totalomplete exoneration. i want to welcome university of virginia center for politics and sabato crystal ball editor. the narrative is that no one ever changes minds on this stuff, the people who think trump is innocent, the people who think trump is guilty, they will find something new. when it comes to actual elections, is there a reason to think this will have impact in 2020? >> i don't think so. i think there's a lot of opinions about the president and his behavior in the pressure probe are baked in already. what is notable in terms of previous bombshells from robert toller, various people close president trump, the approval
rating has not changed much. boost of the last few days. it seems like the worst possible , something involving his campaign in russia, doesn't look likely at this point. i think things will settle where they usually settle, his approval in the low to mid 40's, his approval -- his disapproval a little over 50%. the key states, the electoral college. the mother report coming out or summary, 2020 looked like a coin flip and it basically still does. is inll don't know what the mueller and don't know if it will come out. romaine: there seemed to be a
theory that if the mueller report was more damaging, it would force the democrats into impeachment proceedings and basically consume the process for the next months or years. >> the report would have had to have been damaging enough that a third or more of the senate republican caucus would vote to impeach the president. that was a high bar. from that standpoint, nancy , even before the events of this weekend. at this point, impeachment seems unlikely. there is not some deus ex machina moment for democrats or trump. they go into 2020 assuming they have to beat him. the six house
committees that are investigating for other things like presidential abuses of power, banking relationships, tax things, did they go into overdrive? does that ignite the democratic vote or does that bore the democratic vote? >> certainly they will be looking for anything they can find on trump. they have the investigatory power of the house. when they discover things about the president to the extent that they do, those will be headlines that will be used in service of political arguments as opposed to try and impeach the president. we have this democratic presidential campaign going on now. you can sort of see the election in the distance and this is an argument for this to be ultimately decided by the american people in an election as opposed to in a courtroom or part of an impeachment
proceeding. joe: if we were to look at the 2020 election, mueller aside, where does trump's biggest challenges lie? key states are still wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan. if those states flipped to the democrats and all else was the same, the democrat would win the election and not the republican candidate. the president's approval is relatively weak in those states although in some instances it is better than his natural -- his national numbers. this is where the election will still be decided. also,a is part of that being a parentally competitive state -- a perennially competitive state. there is a path to victory for the president but there is also a path to victory for the democrats.
for the economy, does it remain strong. typically, that is a good indicator. if the economy tanks or perceptions of a get weaker, that is where i think the president starts to have a problem. i think those are things that are hard to predict and don't have anything to do with robert mueller or these other factors. the trump bump isn't the only force moving the u.s. media. representative alexandria ocasio-cortez garners her own alsoty for press and garners higher ratings for internet and media outlets. we know that aoc is sort of taking over the airwaves of several networks. i wonder, is it just because she is an easy target, depending on if you are a critic or supporter of hers, or is there some real
substance? >> if you look at fox news, they've been talking about her a lot, more so than cnn or msnbc have. of digital publishers have found a real traffic boost from covering her. one of the reasons, she has a very young audience. she's the youngest congresswoman ever. her fans are very young, very adept at social media. if you write a story about her, her fans will retweet it, she will retweet it. some of these outlets have seen huge traffic spikes. joe: we just showed a chart. a typical aoc article gets 2x the clicks as a typical politics story. gerry: that's right. it spans both left-leaning publications like huff post which have covered her a lot and fox news, which has
covered her a lot. in arite about her and similar way to a couple years ago when we saw coverage of donald trump leading to a big boost in ratings and subscriptions, we are starting to see a little bit of that from aoc coverage. got 40e: this tweet million retweet sore something like that. she retweeted it once or twice. how much does she get savvy to this that she is being used? gerry: i don't think she minds too much. she's got a huge twitter following. caroline: is it mainly twitter she's on? what about instagram? gerry: if you look at it, the number of likes she gets for an instagram post is much bigger than what a typical media outlet would get. her fan base is very young, very social media savvy. if you are a publisher and you
multibillion-dollar deal from china. it reportedly was finalized during chinese president xi jinping's visit to paris today. all but 10 of the airplanes are a-320 models. the chairman of cash-strapped jet airways will step down. he built one of india's biggest airlines but he will now resign under pressure from creditors. banks will get 140 million new shares in the company and lenders will provide immediate funding. jacob rees-mogg saying he will offer conditional support for may's deal. he says the court will depend on the dup. mightitish prime minister put that brexit deal to a third parliamentary vote tomorrow.
the eu says it now prepares to handle the impact of a brexit. rob, where to start. the point is, no deal is ever closer and there are still yet more amendments to wade through. rob: this evening, as i speak, parliament is debating whether it should take over the process with the prime minister. it is completely unprecedented. we can't find any precedent. a series of votes probably on wednesday and then it would order the government to try to seek something like that. processresisted this and was k.g. this afternoon. she might not have much choice. jacob rees-mogg has just been
talking to members of the pro brexit european research group. he said he is afraid she will lose power altogether. the democratic unionist party today was extremely rude about the deal. it doesn't seem likely that jacob rees-mogg will be held to that. joe: if parliament takes over the brexit process, should we feel confident that it is in good hands? rob: [laughter] i did put that to a cabinet minister this afternoon, that he might be relieved to have someone else take charge, and he laughed. what it would almost certainly mean is a softer brexit. if parliament agrees on anything , what it probably agrees on is a softer brexit than theresa may
is currently going for. there are a bunch of problems with whether the mechanism of parliament telling the prime minister what to do, that's just not how it is normally done here. certainly not to this level of detail. all, itok any form at would take the form of a soft brexit. there is the untested assumption that there are the votes or what is known as sort of norway-plus, which would see britain stay inside the common market, just leave the political institutions. there is an argument against that that says you become a rule taker, but there is an argument for it that says more or less muchould do this without effect on your economy. before we see what people vote for on wednesday, we just don't know. joe: is there a lot of external
pressure? it seems like there's a lot of navelgazing for members of parliament. is there pressure from the outside to get things done? rob: there's a huge amount of pressure. there was a big margin parliament on saturday. slightly astonishingly, five and a half million people have now signed a petition on parliament's website calling for the government to simply revoke the whole gut -- the whole brexit process and stop it. you had the trades union congress and confederation of saying pullstry your fingers out, angry to a deal, do something sensible. of the pressure is contradictory. there's pressure to just get us out and there is pressure to do it in a manner that is sensible, and there's pressure to not leave at all.
now to asia. all the market uncertainties in the developing world, there is a surprising strength and the countdown to election day. like blackrock and jp morgan are seeking value in the run-up to the polls. we remember before the brazilian election, and there is evidence this is happening in other elections in asia as well? lso-rally,called bo
before jair bolsonaro got elected. it was bottoming out in september, then soaring toward the election. this is what investors are looking for. this year, we have many elections in emerging markets ,ncluding india, ukraine argentina, south africa. the ones that blackrock and jp morgan are focused on are those in asia. finally, we get to talk about the rupiah again. in brazil, people perceived the new administration to be more market friendly and reform oriented. you would think that market friendly stance would have helped brazil alone is because it suffered from the other stories out there in emerging markets. onemberg data shows that
month, in the 11 emerging-market elections last year, we saw a 1% rally in their currencies, a 2% rally in their stock markets. that is interesting that we are seeing a widespread rally heading into those elections. we already have the thai elections over this weekend. we had a much anticipated junta leader again expected to be prime minister. we have seen the thai baht gain ground. you are looking at the rupiah right there. caroline: what about india? everyone seems to think this is the winning trade, right? shery: that is exactly what jp morgan thinks. we have the elections in may. intoions going from april
may. a lot of uncertainty around the indian elections. for the time being, it seems that investors are focusing on the fact that polls show that the prime minister's party is leading and they expected them to gain the majority. you are seeing foreign fund inflows into india in the last two months, which has really led billion low that we saw in february. caroline: more political potential to trade on. don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia. meanwhile, you don't want to miss this. the u.k. parliament will vote on theresa may's deal to leave the european union. joe: i'll be watching numbers for housing starts at 8:30 a.m. eastern. romaine: the u.s. trade commission will announce whether
♪ chang in sanily francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." apple meets hollywood. after months if not years of speculation, the iphone maker unveils its streaming plan with a star-studded event with steven spielberg, reese witherspoon, even oprah. a lot of excitement but also lots of questions. the roadshow in san francisco, met