tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg March 27, 2019 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
>> a very good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts. >> good evening from new york. i am shery ahn. >> i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. welcome to "daybreak asia." haidi: our top story this thursday, u.k. lawmakers vote on brexit options. sterling falls as a government supporter refuses to back theresa may. bayer loses another trial against roundup causing cancer.
they are under pressure to settle other cases. insists he hasn always had the board's approval. i am tom mackenzie. we are live in high nan -- for him whereboao li keqiang is expected to address the crowd. and therlos gutierrez chairman of astrazeneca. shery: let's get a check of markets. u.s. stocks, equities and treasury yields, risk obsession throughout. we saw the dow fall 0.1%. almost every sector on the s&p 500 was in the red. led lower by health care. nasdaq down 0.6%.
data over u.s. housing markets are retail sales, it is about the economic outlook and fears of recession growing around the world. u.s. futures down 0.2%. let's look at how we are shaping up in asia. a tepidcould be seeing session. aussie shares little changed. 0.2%,e kiwi stocks up heading for a 10th record high set for the month of march. futures trading lower in seoul and tokyo. mario draghi's dovish commentary. mnuchin and lighthizer kicking off the two day visit to china as the u.s. trade deficit narrowed on the drop in chinese imports. let's check -- let's check in on movers. the kiwi dollar up 0.1%. the biggest drop in seven weeks triggered by the rbnz's dovish
tilt. the new zealand economy can whether a downturn, but traders nzx likely focus on the data. kiwi set to lose 27 based -- basis point. benchmark aussie yields dropping at record lows. the british pound on the move 0.25% against the greenback. sophie speaking of the global tilt toward dovishness. remarks in ag speech at a money market event in new york. she sees 2019 growth coming in at 2%. saying fundamentals remain sounds, but monetary policy can take a wait-and-see approach. the biggest risk is coming from abroad.
supporting the fed judgment it can be patient on policy and the current outlook for inflation remains benign. she has been a famed hawk. before switching to a dovish tilt in january. a real turn around when it comes to the fed's voting. that is not going to change things much as we continue to see this resurgent rally in global bonds on the back of not just the fed, but global banks are turning dovish. let's get you to first word news. >> boeing has briefed to the aviation industry on its software fix for the 737 max, said it was close to an upgrade before the ethiopia crash. they have been refining the software since the first disaster, where a sensor faults repeatedly forced the plane into a dive. boeing said it proved more
complicated than originally thought. we canill do everything do to ensure accidents like these never happen again. we are working with customers faithgulators to restore in our industry and reaffirm our commitment to safety and earning the trust of the flying public. a must take steps to reduce hazards. flightrely on automated systems as much as 90% of the time. while airlines have long used isomation safely, faa responsible for ensuring air carriers meet requirements for these systems. trial,r lost a second claiming its weedkiller causes cancer. they are pressured to settle thousands of similar lawsuits. forfrancisco court settled $75 million to a 70 old man who
had used roundup for decades. bayer says it is safe and plans to appeal. former nissan chairman carlos ghosn hit back on the report. in emailed -- an emailed statement said it is a smear campaign. and you can feel nissan's deteriorating performance. it says that ghosn acted at all times with board and chair authority. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am selina wang. this is bloomberg. shery: the u.k. house of commons voted on a series of brexit proposals and failed to back any of them. bloomberg's brexit editor joins us from london. extension to brexit increasingly likely at this point?
emma: i think it probably is. for a few hours last night there was a moment of excitement and we thought theresa may might get that brexit deal over the line. she offered up her own job in return for votes to get those brexiteers on board. for a moment it did look like she might succeed. boris johnson said he would support the deal, behind closed doors. dup, the small northern irish party that props up a government, came out and said no, we will not support the deal because it threatens the united kingdom. suddenly these nonbinding votes became more important. parliament's verdict is that there is no majority for anyone proposal. one they came close is to remain in the customs union.
it does look like it might become the starting point for more negotiations between lawmakers who will come back monday and have another go. shery: i feel like a broken record every time asking you, where do we go from here, where do we go from now? will we get a longer extension? ama: where we go from here is certainly that parliament will come back monday, take the options that were voted on last night, whittle them down to a for -- down to a short list. probably presented with a softer brexit. if theresa may agrees, which is not a foregone conclusion, she can go back to the european union and say my parliament wants a softer brexit, accustomed union -- a customs union, and we need an extension. the no deal option does remain on the table.
earlier this week may said she would not take the country out of the european union without a deal unless parliament explicitly consented. yes, long extension looks likely, but no deal is still on the table. a chance may will have one more go. but unless they are sure she has support, they probably will not do that. they: just the fact of options that did relatively well or not as bad as other options were to do with staying in the e.u. customs union. is this still a more market friendly outcome? emma: yes, it is. the customs union removes tariffs and barriers to trade. for the car industry this would be good news. for manufacturing in general, that would be good news. it is not as close as the status quo. remember, brexit is an two
parts. there is the divorce and the future relationship. in legally binding terms, the divorce -- the future relationship is up for grabs. andre ties between the e.u. the u.k. is written in a nonbinding declaration that can be rewritten, ripped up during 2020.riod, until december i am afraid to say, we will have to live with uncertainty for a very long time. even if theresa may's deal were to go through this week, that future relationship will not be set in stone for many years yet to come. shery: our bloomberg brexit editor, m ross thompson. trade talks set to resume in beijing thursday with analyst pessimistic about whether a deal will yuan include the. tom mackenzie is following this out of hainan.
so much skepticism when it comes to an agreement on currency that will be substantial? certainly the trade talks are part of the conversation at the boao for him. this plan pledge around the currency. there is increased skepticism about how significant this will be because it is not in china's tie itselfterests to down to commitments beyond those they already made up the multilateral level, not to competitively devalue their currency. the other aspect is the question of enforcement and how you enforce a currency pledge. steve mnuchin said previously this was the strongest packs ever in terms of currency, but that is being put to question,
not least by the pboc governor who said, we need to respect to the autonomy of each other's central banking systems and this cannot be a one-sided deal. where does that leave us? probably something like what we got with the canadians and mexicans and americans promised to be more transparent, provide more data and pledge not to devalue competitively their currencies. that is what is likely in terms of what china would sign up for. shery: u.s. negotiators are banking on outlasting china when it comes to the state of the economy. what are the early indicators telling us about china? the early indicators are looking relatively positive. there is a gauge of small to medium-sized enterprises that hit its highest level in 10 months.
then there is a credit conditions gauge at its highest level since 2017. the china beige book said it is unmistakable economic conditions have improved. across all the regions they cover and sectors they cover, revenues have to stop. they also say it is down to three key conditions and reasons -- credit, credit, credit. take a listen to the president of the china beige book speaking earlier about why and what is sustaining this turnaround we have seen. >> this is something the chinese of swore they would not do a year or two ago. the priority has shifted from reform and restructuring and deleveraging to growth at all costs? the china beige book saying they see significant signs in terms of shadow baking. that is why you have seen the
economic turnaround. there is a key question about how sustainable recovery will be. shery: tom, inky for that. -- thank you for that. we have an exclusive interview with julius baer group ceo bernhard hodler. haidi: bears on wall street. chris harvey will be with us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. an improved backdrop in terms of stabilization in china and asia causing bank of america to relax its stance on the stock market. wells fargo's chris harvey shifting his target to one of the most bearish on wall street and into the bull camp. they are now,here what would fair value mean for the s&p 500? tois: what is driving us improve our s&p is the fed have become on hold. they are dovish. interest rates have come down and credit spreads have tightened. we are close to low on bps. when we start discounting things our s&p price target goes higher. at the end of the day we were too pessimistic and when, we made that s&p price target we were expecting the fed to raise rates this year. that will not happen.
we be concerned about a pullback in stock with recession concerns? chris: we are worried about the short-term because the fed is as dovish as they can be. we are into preannouncement season. interest rates are coming down across the globe. fears of a recession are going higher. we do not think those fears are founded, but you have to it knowledge that. that will weigh on the government short-term. haidi: another year of goldilocks circumstances, is that serious? will not tell you things are great outside the u.s. in asia, europe, the economies are challenged. in the u.s. things are slowing down, but relatively good. inflation is low, valuations are reasonable, and expectations have come down. goldilocks is not the right word, but there is opportunity,
but you have to be tactical and opportunistic. in hong kongre today. tell me where you would be opportunistic in that part of the world. chris: as a whole, we like value. stocks,ng for cheaper opportunities where expectations have come down, where sentiment has come down. we are finding that in technology across the globe. shery: what about financials? they were the worst in the s&p 500 last week. chris: financials we are starting to warm up to. we have been neutral to negative on financials up to now. we are seeing valuation is being uncovered. sentiment is terrible. yield curve is pushing stocks underperform. when we look at the underlying fundamentals and risk profile, it is quite attractive. from a valuation point of view it is more interesting to us. we are not ready to pull the
trigger yet, that it is something we are looking for. if it underperforms, it is something we will come back to. shery: we are seeing low cost of capital come a resolution to trade tensions between the u.s. and china. could we see an acceleration in m&a this year? chris: absolutely. m&a has been tepid year to date, but as the cost of capital comes down, as liquidity is abundant, as organic opportunities are limited, we expect m&a to pick up. and the health care space it yesterday we saw m&a activity. we think it is going to accelerate as the year progresses. haidi: are you perturbed by the yield curve? seems to be a head scratching think where some people it may not pretend -- portend
the doom and gloom it has in previous sessions. chris: the yield curve flattening across the globe is troubling, and so are interest rates. it is something we are monitoring, being careful about. it is partially related to economics and sentiment. as we look overseas, it is about the economy in asia and europe. the rate market globally is having gravity on the u.s. the u.s. is in slow down. the problem with the yield curve slowing, it is shoot first, ask questions later. people are saying, i am not sure what is happening, i am fearful, have to price in recession. that is what you are seeing in the short-term. haidi: chris, great to have you, head of equity strategy. you can get a roundup of stories to get your day going in the first edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers go to dayb on your terminals. it is also on the bloomberg
shery: this is daybreak asia. i am shery ahn in new york. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we are turning to the news earlier. trial over claims its weedkiller roundup causes cancer. in terms of the way this is structured, we know there are further, some 11,000 cases still pending. if this has been established, is it in the company's favor to seek a settlement? peter: sure. i think everyone expects settlement talks will get underway, possibly quite seriously.
the federal judge in san francisco who was overseeing many of these cases said, i think it is time for mediation. he said yesterday -- he said that yesterday at summation. we will see what happens. shery: bayer continues to defend their product, saying they conducted scientific studies. where did they stand on their views of what is going on with this product? peter: they maintain they did all the necessary studies and the measure of that is the fact that every regulatory agency in the world that has looked at this has approved a glyphosate -formulated products, in this case roundup weed killer, for use for the public without any labeling at all addressing cancer. they have satisfied the public agencies, but the courts and juries have a different mindset. the federal judge in san the federal judge in sanhe
francisco clearly told the jury, it is your responsibility to assess the science. we want your opinion. the jury said glyphosate was a significant factor in this plaintiff's non-hodgkin's lymphoma disease. that is what they are facing. once that was established, they were also facing reams of their ownplaintiff's emails that apped callous, disinterested and more concerned about manipulating public opinion and the perception of health and safety, than the reality. once all that was presented to the jury, it was a slamdunk now twice in a row. $70 million plus in two separate verdicts. peter, thank you. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. saudi aramco buying a majority stake in a chemical giant. the deal came to light last year
after aramco's ipl was postponed with investors bulking out of a potential $2 trillion valuation. it moves a pile of money from one arm of the study -- saudi state to another. haidi: we have been told bhp is among potential bidders. blue water is attracting interest from food and energy. it could fetch up to $2 billion. backs -- blackstone and llog pledging to invest over $1 billion in the project. lyft: uber rival increasing ipo to $72 per share. it needs to raise $2.2 billion. it will still offer 30 million shares in the listing. it starts trading friday. said to be the biggest u.s.
>> this is daybreak asia. i am selina wang with the first word headlines. u.k. lawmakers voted on a string of options and failed to support any of them. theresa may promising to resign as prime minister if conservative rebels dropped opposition to her brexit deal and ratify it. hardliners including boris johnson agreed the small irish border party that has propped up the government so far refused to back her deal. u.s.-china trade talks resume in beijing later thursday with president trump saying he is anticipating excellent deal. sides say the agree on some outlines, but china is pushing back on some demands it
feels are too one-sided. it will continue in washington next week. malaysia has lowered growth forecast for the year, pledging to keep -- policy accommodative. 4.3% to 4.8% in 2019. the projection is slightly down on what it saw in november and roughly the same as the growth pace in 2018. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am selina wang. this is bloomberg. shery: banks and asset managers endss europe marked a tough to 2018. julius baer has pledged cost cuts. markets bounced back and bank stocks recovered faster than rivals. haslinda amin is standing by with an exclusive interview with
the group's ceo. >> we are talking about bernhard hodler. challenging times for the bank. let's hear from him. good to have you with us. >> good morning. >> let's talk about market conditions, client sentiment. how has it been? one of your main rivals in asia, ubs, announced a 9% drop in revenues. difficult times. the morgan was at stanley conference and it was a surprise. there is more clients activity in the last year, last quarter. it is higher this year. it is not that the levels we saw at the beginning of 2018, but declines a little bit more. what is positive for us is in the stock market, asset and partt has gone up,
of our fees are [indiscernible] what are you observing in terms of appetite for risk? nobody knows how to make sense of the bond market. bernhard: we have stayed invested. very positive declines. haslinda: where? bernhard: they invested in equity markets in december. our advice back then, stay invested. that is positive. we had discussions. i just came from hong kong and met clients there. should we take chips off the table carefully? not a bad idea. the first three months were extremely positive in the stock markets. s&p, steepest the rise since 1991.
it is possible you could see a correction. haslinda: do you think the market has gone too far in predicting the fed will do more than one cut this year? bernhard: it is difficult these days to see what the fed plans to do, because they change their mind quite often. in december something completely different from what we hear now. we assume there is a possibility we see another cut early 2020. i could not understand [indiscernible] haslinda: due to the recent rout we saw, you announced some cuts. where are these being done for julius baer? bernhard: we had a tremendous first half and more difficult second half. we started tactical cost measures. now we are more on a strategic basis.
we analyze the locations we have, where we think it is difficult to make money or growth. we have closed three of them already. in holland, amsterdam, panama, peru. we try to be more strategic. haslinda: when it comes to challenges, retaining talent, retaining relationship managers. recently we saw an exit as of senior relationship managers from the julius baer. are you concerned you were losing talent? bernhard: we had 105 relationship managers, net. we lost six. that is not a big number. haslinda: there are concerns the -- may be poaching.
it cannot be a good feeling seeing your talent leave. only very few people leaving. they like our platform. it is a good company, good firm. in asia our platform is much more comprehensive. haslinda: back to your restructuring. julius baer has been under scrutiny of late by the regulator. what else can we expect? bernhard: what i did since i took control as ceo were two things. we worked on legacy issues. finish the to prosecution agreement in the u.s. off, one by them one. we have increased our client data and we will continue to do that. haslinda: in terms of plans for
yourself, it has been 16 months since he took over as ceo of julius baer. how long do you think you will be in this position? what plans might there be? bernhard: we will have a new chairman soon, april 10 he will be elected. i just presented the three-year strategy plan. i really like my job and what i'm doing. asia,da: when it comes to who would you consider as your top three competitors? how do you sell maneuvering and positioning? what are your strategic priorities so you ensure you remain on the top? bernhard: in asia we are top five. hsbc.itors are ubs, citi, we have a very comprehensive platform.
we continue to invest into talent and japan. what is important for us is what you mentioned before, keep talent and attract talent. what they like a lot on our platform we have this old platform. we do not use private baking as a distribution channel. it is attractive for clients and our people. haslinda: what is the potential in asia? bernhard: i see great potential. we serve from hong kong and singapore, but it is something we look at, other opportunities, possibilities to go offshore and partner with somebody. haslinda: are there talks right now? bernhard: we always look around. we have the strategy, cooperation agreement with the bank of china. we look at other possibilities as well. in the main market for us asia is china, singapore, hong
kong, indonesia and india. also growing markets like thailand or mature markets like japan. i see quite some potential. haslinda: do you see more hiring to come over the next 12, 24 months, and where might that be? bernhard: we have hired in asia substantially. haslinda: how many more do you hire? a higher -- to bernhard: roughly 50 to 70 relationship managers on a net aces. we also look at opportunities in m&a and joint ventures. we did joint ventures with nomura. howinda: we talk about there is so much potential in china and china is opening up. your views on the inclusion of china bonds in the bloomberg market index, what do you see and is it a game changer for china and investors?
bernhard: it is difficult to judge. it certainly adds liquidity. i think it will be a great opportunity. haslinda: are you concerned about the slowdown in china? some say perhaps in the fourth quarter, despite the numbers we saw, china did not grow it all, and xi jinping has to in sure the economy goes back on track i am sure you saw the numbers this morning. the first quarter went well. a more format driven strategy to growth. it is credit-led. the question is, how sustainable is that? it is very important they find the solution with the u.s. these talks will go on. if we look at the global economy, we may see a recession.
haslinda: let's touch on brexit. uncertainty remains. how concerned are you about your business over there? bernhard: we have a sizable organization in london where we cover u.k. clients. weare not concerned because do not export services from the u.k. to europe, not like investment banks that have resources and services. what we do is serve u.k. clients, domestic clients -- haslinda: sentiment? sentiment,t impacts but we invested substantially last year. largest is the sixth high net worth market in the world. i still do not believe or think there is a probability. yesterday in the
parliament is a bit concerning. no hard brexit, but uncertainty remains. thank you so much for your insight. thank you so much, and singapore covering a wide range of topics. to avoidchina hoping further escalation. let's bring in tom mackenzie who has been in hainan for the bayer forum.the boao in beijing the conversations will take place. they are focused among the delegates. we will have li keqiang's speech around 10:00 a.m. economy.around the
let's get views from the former u.s. commerce secretary, carlos gutierrez. also chairman of the albright group. it seems to be with executives i have spoken to there is consensus we will get a deal. you agree a deal is looking inedible, and what kind of deal do you think is most likely, what is the timeframe? carlos: it looks better. for the first time i am hearing from both countries a certain optimism that a deal is in the works. probably two or three months. the tough issue now is enforcement, verification, what happens if the deal does not come through. what happens if china does not deliver on promises. what do you do? i think that is the problem. the u.s. would like to keep tariffs.
hard-pressed to sign a deal that has tariffs. that is what i think is being discussed now. how do we enforce this? tom: you have clients from across the globe. -- presidenteal trump says these are tariffs that will remain. what is the impact likely to be on your clients, on corporations around the world? are they likely to get a benefit even if tariffs remain in place to some degree? carlos: yes, because it gives them certainty. right now the big problem is, they just do not know what is going to happen in three months, six months. should i move my plant, my supply chain? if they knew this tariff would be in place five years, i do not think they would like it. private sector does not like tariffs.
but i think they would appreciate the certainty. right now the uncertainty is what is holding investment up, and i think it is holding back growth around the world. tom: does the end of the mueller investigation strengthen trump's hand in these investigations? carlos: it enables him to focus. the mueller investigation took a lot of time in the white house. it may give him a certain sense of confidence that the deal that he strikes will be supported by his base and by congress. he will get criticism by democrats, no question about it, but yes, i think it gives some flexibility, a sense of confidence. we overlooking the risks that the politics in washington will convene to undermine a deal that is not as strong as many would help? the likes of chuck schumer, marco rubio, can they shoot this
down if it is not the deal they want? carlos: it is not a treaty. it does not have to go through congress, but there will be criticism. that the deal was not tough enough, that the president was not tough enough. i think that will be inevitable. it will happen regardless of the deal. from the types of member of congress, nancy pelosi. she has been very tough on china over the years. she is now the speaker. it is a different environment and the person will have to deal environment,estic but i think he is in a good position to get it through and to be able to sell it as the best deal we could have gotten. tom: we talk about what the u.s. could get out of china in terms of concessions. what concessions could china get from the u.s.? carlos: i think they would like access to the u.s. market. there is concern that by
sifius, itify us -- keeps them from participated -- participating. those are things the chinese would like to see tempered or go away. that is a concern from there and. -- end. tom: you talked about a cold war-like scenario. what is your stance in terms of the risks and tensions, even if we get a deal? carlos: i am concerned about the way in which we think about china. we called them a strategic competitor. competitor does not bother china, but we say strategic, that tends to imply they are a rival, an enemy, that what is
good for them is bad for us. becauseries me interpretation of the chinese can lead to misunderstanding, certain actions. as we go back and the president goes back with a deal and we are entering a campaign, presidential campaign, i can see china playing a role almost like the soviet union. who can be tougher on the soviet union? if people feel the deal was not good enough, that can be part of the campaign in 2020, who can be tougher on china. i am very concerned it is almost like a cold war that is being designed, as opposed to being a legitimate rivalry or animosity. we compete, but we are not enemies. tom: the other set of trade tensions between the u.k. and , trump has to make a
decision about auto imports. how likely is that the happen? carlos: there have been enough examples of the unintended consequences of tariffs. t 232utomobile tariffs a would be explosive to say the least. you were talking about automobiles and components. it gets complex because our biggest export of automobiles from the u.s. are german cars. now we will slap tariffs on german components. it will get messy. in the meantime, the president has it leverage until he makes a decision. that will be a big one. done at the end of the u.s.-china deal, this will continue. that is one to watch. i would like to think we have
all learned these tariffs have so many unintended consequences because of the complexity of the supply chain, that it is better not to do it. tom: former u.s. commerce secretary speaking to us at the talking him in hainan, about trade negotiations between the u.s. and china, but also keeping and i on those between the e.u. in the u.s. plenty more guest coverage from the boao for them. shery: thank you. estateg news, a real 81vestor expected to raise $7. billion hong kong dollars. at 29ill inflate shares hong kong dollars and 68 cents each. they will pay outstanding
overseas debt financing and they will not be used for the development of residential properties. to raise 7.8vanke billion hong kong dollars. they just reported for your net income more than 1% below estimates as we continue to see uncertainties in china's home sale market. they are now raising 7.8 hong kong dollars in a placement of s,re than 263 million h share saying they will use proceeds to pay outstanding debt from overseas financing. you can go to our tv function to rewatch past interviews or watch us live. you can dive into any of the securities or bloomberg functions we talk about them become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is bloomberg. ♪ ur shows. this is bloomberg.
>> nissan set to adopt new governance rules that will abolish the structure that has been criticized for putting too much power into the hands of one. attack to the suggestion he had too much power when he was in charge. sophie, what are these recommendations from the panel? these new government to recommendations which nissan is expected to adopt by the end of june would abolish the position of chairman. making sure that where nissan is concerned, there is not a repeat of the concentration of power, but these recent governance changes are aimed at making the alliance
smoother and allowing these companies to share cost and technology so they can keep up with competitors. what about this report renault once to re-talk a firm merger? sophie: the financial times did report about a merger with nissan in about 12 months, and a goal for fiat chrysler. that would create a better position to compete with toyota and volkswagen. that would be a difficult idea. a merger is sensitive with nissan and renault. this is something carlos ghosn was proposing before he was arrested. they have tried to strengthen their bargaining position within the alliance in other ways. a secondary thing that could be kasichlt, the ghosn posed tensions between the japanese and french side of the
alliance. at chrysler, looking at adding manufacturing and production cultures and management cultures from italy and the u.s. as well adding to those complications potentially. you have to wonder what the french government would feel about this, given it has such a huge stake in renault. shery: sophie jackman, thank you. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. j.p. morgan chase cutting hundreds of jobs in its assets and wealth management. more thanmployed 28,000 people at the end of last year, 4% more than in 2017. j.p. morgan cut jobs in august when it cut staff from asset management. it will continue to invest. haidi: it could pay off to invest in a good nights sleep. mattress retailer casper
the latest to join the unicorn club. 100 million dollars in funding at a $1.1 billion valuation. casper is turning its focus to expanding and asia. bank: a construction profiting. profit rose more than 5% last year. they adjusted policies to support the growing economy. china's five biggest banks set to report their strongest annual profit growth since 2014, upsetting the effects of the wider economic slowdown. take a look at how asian markets are faring in this early part of the session. the opening of trading in seoul and tokyo. downside on aussie stocks, down 5%. .5%. -- 0.2 nikkei futures looking negative. shery: plenty more to come on
haidi: good morning. shery:idi stroud-watts in sydney. good evening from new york, i am shery on. sophie: and i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. welcome to "daybreak asia." haidi: our top story, u.k. lawmakers vote on brexit options, but failed to pass any of them. sterling falls and a brexit hardliner refuses to back theresa may. more evidence of a recovery in china. equities and small business are
leading the pickup. shery: u.s.-china trade talks resume later in beijing. both sides they say they want to deal, but important obstacles must be resolved first. let's get to the market open in japan and south korea. how are we setting up? sophie: we are taking a look at tokyo. the nikkei 225 off i went percent. the topix seeing declines as we saw wednesday, more than half of cut -- more than half of companies on the benchmark. weakness for stocks in japan while the yen is trading at 110. 47. let's check in on the mood in seoul. the cost be lower by 0.7%. he korean won up 0.4%, at the 11.48 handle against the dollar. confidence unchanged at 76 for the month of april.
flipping the board in sydney, stocks snapping a two-day advance. we do have shares in wellington gaining ground up 0.2%, extending gains to see the benchmark climbed to a record high for attempt time in the month of march. well we are seeing stocks mixed, yields very much under pressure. yield tradingssie at record lows once more. we are seeing 10 year kiwi deals also sliding as we have over the past six sessions drop about 27 basis points for the kiwi benchmark. the kiwi dollar on the back foot , 68 handle. anz looking weaker. kiwi dollar led lower wednesday after the rbnz shifted to a more dovish stance.
let's get you caught up to date with the first word news. >> we start with u.s.-china trade talks. they resume in beijing thursday with president trump saying he has anticipating excellent deal. the two sides agreed to broad outlines, but there are important obstacles remaining and china is pushing back at some demands they feel are too one-sided. negotiations will continue in washington next week. the latest on boeing. it has briefed to the aviation industry on its software fix for was737 max jet, saying it close to an upgrade before the ethiopian airlines crash this month. the playmaker has been refining software since october's lion air disaster, where a sensor fault repeatedly forced the plane into a dive.
boeing says the upgrades proved more complicated than originally thought. >> we will do everything we can do to ensure accidents like these never happen again. we are working with customers and regulators around the world to restore faith in our industry and also to reaffirm our commitment to safety, and to earning the trust of the flying public. >> faa must take steps to reduce hazards associated with flight deck automation. pilots rely on automated systems as much as 90% of the time. while airlines have long used isomation safely, faa responsible for ensuring air carriers meet requirements for these systems. >> to the latest with bayer, lost a second trial over claims its weedkiller roundup causes cancer. it increases pressure on the company to spend billions of dollars to settle similar lawsuits. the san francisco court awarded damages in more than $80 million
to a 70-year-old man who became ill after spraying the herbicide on his property for decades. says scientific studies shows a roundup is safe and they plan to launch an appeal. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: our top story today, the u.k. parliament has voted on a series of brexit proposals and failed to back any of them. theresa may promising to quit if her deal was accepted, but failed after a government supporter refused to back her agreement. kathleen hays is here with the latest. let's start with seizing control of the brexit process and failing to come up with any alternative that they like. kathleen: that is amazing. a historic vote. we will take over house of commons and figure it out. we will look at alternatives.
unlike theresa may who could not the deal together we could vote for, week will. guess what? deadlocked again. norway plus is the deal with of the customs union. second referendum, where the people of the u.k. could vote on it. all of them failed. the main deal got 232 votes. her deal with the customs union, 262. the people will be able to vote 2n the deal once it is passed -- once it has passed 268. theresa may's deal is the only one still in play, still viable. we will see what happens with that. it is possible theresa may can put it to a vote again. she said she will not do that unless she has the votes to win. haidi: there was some hope she pass, but it did
not work. kathleen: she put out a prepared toying, leave her job early to do the right thing for the country in the party. she went on to say this in her statement. take a look at that now. i ask everyone in this room to back the deal so we can complete our duty to deliver for the british people and leave the e.u. in a smooth and orderly exit. boris johnson, one of her big opponents, former mayor of london, member of parliament many years said, i will support it. the democratic unionist party said no. that was the end of that. regardless of what happens with this deal, future looking more uncertain than ever as we get to this impasse and stay there. are getting we
parliament votes every other day in the u.k. is that what is next, more votes? kathleen: we know if there is no the u.k.al by friday, faces getting an extension up to a year or more, and a hard brexit april 12. that would be bad for the economy. take aay they expect to look at a shorter list of options and see if they can vote on something and agree on it. the option still has of putting this book back on the table. that is what our bloomberg news team in london is reporting. at this moment there seems to be so many options and so few conclusions. the clock is ticking. we have to see what rises to the top of this bubbling brew of brexit. shery: [laughter] next, out oft is the cauldron.
mark, the latest brexit chaos causing more volatility when it comes to sterling. investors do if they want to touch the pound at this point? mark: do not go near a bubbling brew seems to be the answer here. [laughter] you can afford to be patient. that is what you are saying with traders here. if we look at previous lessons, when the european union vote was scheduled in june 2016, though the pound fell heavily on the day the vote happened, it did not find a floor until two weeks later. if you are thinking of trading the pound, you have plenty of time to make your decision after something happens. there was so much uncertainty, you can forgive sterling traders for saying, this is too complicated, i will wait until i see a clear decision one way or the other. i have time to make a trading decision after that.
if you think about what happened to the pound in 2016, is stabilized and then went lower when we had the sterling crash. outcomeit is a positive or a negative outcome, traders have time to make a decision. we could have sideways choppy trading for a few days. it is not until april 12 a final decision has to be made to read forgive people for not committing heavily one way or the other, even though the option market is heavily skewed toward the pound going down. last-minute deal as kathleen has been saying. everything is on the table and we could even have theresa may's original deal go through at the very last minute. everything is possible. meantime global bond yields fall with the 10 year yield below 2.4% at the moment. our recession sears -- seers correct? are: the bond vigilantes
driving yields down to a level that is scaring everybody. they may be getting exaggerated because we are coming to the end of the first quarter. some people might once against their positions in place before the quarter ended deadline. that may be exaggerating, but clearly people are spooked by the idea that recession risks are rising. it does not matter which yield curve you look at, there are inversions everywhere and arious indicators suggesting recession is a notable, though it may not happen for 18 months. a lot of people worried recession has to be priced into various markets. when you have things like that -- the turkish currency getting attacked, that is adding to the fears. you have brexit, turkey, weak data. no wonder people want a hold the most offensive assets, which is government bonds in the g10 currencies.
haidi: pretty extraordinary turn from the rbnz, the latest central bank to flock to the dove camp. will we continue to see downside pressure on the kiwi dollar? it is interesting because new zealand is often been a lead indicator for a relatively small economy. they have set a path ahead of other g10 people. when the sector bank in new zealand says they are working toward a potential rate cut, a lot of people would take notice of that. certainly we will put pressure on the new zealand currency, but the fact it is happening in been hintingo has there will be lower rates. the us dollars will also be affected. it will have repercussions across the whole of the g10 network. after new zealand said lower rates are on the cards.
it might be the kiwi dollar might look as if it is not a major currency, but it is influential about what happens across the board. we need to keep an i on the kiwi. haidi: mark cranfield there. global bonds jumped by almost $1.6 trillion in the last three weeks. the question of why and whether that continues. shery: we are heading back to china.o forum in this is bloomberg. ♪
two drugmaker. tom: absolutely. let me get straight to my next guest, interview with the , leifan of astrazeneca johansson. china has been such a big component for sales for astrazeneca. how is it shaping up, the market for 2019? what volume are you targeting? leif: we have done very well and good growth rates. in 2018 we grew by 28%. what we look at when we look ahead is a market very interested in new drugs. a government position that would want them to establish a high quality health care. i think all the criteria are there for continued growth. tom: in-line with 2018? forecastnever give
like that on individual countries. the boundary criteria look good. tom: are you concerned about the economic slowdown in china and the impact that may have on your business is? leif: i am, in the broader business sense, but in the case of the pharmaceutical company, we are not impacted very much by economic cycles. we are more impacted by life science cycles. i think there everything looks good. tom: can you give us a sense of how many new products you might be bringing to the market in the next 12 months? leif: we have a rich pipeline. that rich pipeline is coming through into china. we have a number of new products in oncology, respiratory and metabolic and cardiovascular disease. theof which are addressing
needs of large parts of the population in china. when i have spoken to executives of pharmaceutical companies in the past, they have talked about the approvals mechanism here being much more beneficial for foreign pharmaceutical companies. do you concur with that? leif: i think that is true. a couple years ago the chinese government established a federal -- a chinese federal drug agency, much along the lines of other countries. that agency has decided to go quicker. you could also say more predictable. we have the ability to get our medicines across and have access to patients in a much better way than we used to. tom: i know you recently backed or invested in an incubator in china. could you look to acquire a chinese drugmaker as well, as you expand your footprint?
is that something you would consider? leif: we are expanding our footprint. we have upwards of 400 r&d people in china. incubator is to get us into an ecosystem of large companies, academia, and small companies. we do not know where that takes us. we do not know what the startups or small and medium-sized companies will do, but i am interested to see if we can expand their positions in international markets, or make equity investments. too early to tell. tom: is there an amount you put aside for investment in china? leif: no, and i think that is a good thing. we are talking about comparatively little money when we talk about startups. we will do what we think is appropriate and exciting rather than say we will spend
x-millions of dollars. tom: there has been debate in the u.s. about drug prices, but prices are also high in china. do expectof changes to see in the pricing mechanism and how much of an impact will that have? leif: i have been in the industry for a long time. is going to be true here. we are working together with a few agencies, different governments and different countries, but it is important to realize what those prices do. if you look at the pharmaceutical industry, we newd $150 billion a year in r&d, financed by drug prices. prime, not a single minister health minister in any country said we should spend less on r&d. if you say we will do lower drug prices dramatically, that will impact that $150 billion. then governments have to find
other ways to fund that. you can do that with funding by political committees, etc.. i would suggest the industry does that well. tom: has your impact been impacted by the trade were between the u.s. and china? leif: no. in general we have not been impacted by the trade war. trade wars are not good. certain points are being discussed between china and the u.s. like intellectual property. hopefully they will be sorted out over the next couple months. the impact of brexit been on the business and are you ramping up, stockpiling that part of the process? brexit is a delicate matter because we have to deal with long-term effects. short-term, patients would be able to receive their medicines across the channel or indeed in markets like these. and would not be impacted by brexit short-term.
we have stockpiled and done everything we can. longer-term, how does the u.k. develop? my bet would be that the u.k. after brexit would want to be part of the global economy and want to be part of a great scientific research-based. we are based in cambridge. we have good science being made there. all of that i would expect to continue, but there will be a period of uncertainty. has been there for seven years. how much longer should we expect him at the helm? leif: i would want him to be around a long while. pascal has been instrumental, including in china. growth.come back into we have a good, rich pipeline.
to increase how productivity and r&d. from my point of view, he is welcome to stay as long as he wishes. johansson, ceo of astrazeneca. talking to us about china. haidi: great conversation, tom mackenzie covering the boao forum in hainan. mainland china's biggest copper producer and processor reporting net for the whole year 3% below average analyst estimates. we are looking at for your net income at 4.45 billion yuan. billion yuan. we have seen a recent move up in the copper price, but the longer-term cinerea -- scenario
benefiting from stimulus measures. authorities adjusted their policy to support the slowing economy. china's five biggest banks are set to report their strongest annual profit growth since 2014, upsetting the effects of the wider economy. lyft increasing the price of its ipo. $2.2 billion.se it will still have 30 million shares on the listing and is expected to begin sharing on friday. it has the biggest tech offering since snap two years ago. coming up, traders increasing their bets, rate cuts from the central bank this year. by george joined
su: u.k. lawmakers have voted on a string of exit options and failed to support any of them. had earlier seen theresa may promising to resign droppedrvatives opposition to the brexit deal and ratified it. hardliners like boris johnson agreed but the northern irish party to prop up the government so far refused to back the deal. the trump administration cast doubt on the chances of peace in the middle east i refusing commit to the two state solution. mike pompeo defended the
administration's decision. he insisted washington can still be a fair arbiter in bringing the conflict to a conclusion. a spokesman for former nissan chairman carlos ghosn hit back at the company's report on improving corporate governance. a statement says allegations he had too much power are "part of an abstract -- unsubstantiated smear campaign to prevent the alliance." nissan's performance is deteriorating. ghosn had shareholder authority. formerxpelled the interpol president from the communist party as he awaits trial for corruption.
his four-year mandate was cut short when he was detained without notice in china in our tuber. a party statement says he abused his power to satisfy what it calls his family's extravagant lifestyle. singapore is allocating more than half a billion u.s. dollars to transform its economy into on that puts more emphasis research and companies that create new markets and jobs. the investment includes money for artificial intelligence am a supercomputing and robotics. it is part of a five-year plan that runs through 2020. -- seeksingapore sees to advance technology. global news 24 hours per day, powered by more than 2700 journalists in more than 20 -- 120 countries. this is bloomberg. markets this morning. asian stocks.for
the nikkei 225 falling, while we are seeing a bond rally continue. aussie yields falling 2-5 basis points. kiwi benchmarked yields falling a low the policy rate for the first time. kiwive the advance for stocks easing. the nj 50 up marginally after the advance earlier in the session. the kiwi dollar is under pressure, but easing its earlier drop of 0.2%. this after a gauge of business confidence were sent. it is below 68 against the greenback. the korean won at the weakest level since october while the aussie is below 71 u.s. cents. lackluster for australia but oil jumps into the terminal. for city the horizon stocks including tony brennan at city. from wednesday's
close, listing the benchmark in 2019 targets to 6500, above the consensus estimates from analysts, 6300 points on the chart. thanks to improving earnings growth, tony brennan pointing out iron or is helping boost those prospects. he has the caveat, saying lower economyn the australian could put the advance at risk. as u.s. officials arrive in beijing for another round of trade negotiations, there are doubts the two sides can read -- rich impact over how china handles the yuan. let's bring in malcolm. what is the latest thinking? is speculation around the talks. one of the threads of the
conversation has been to what extent will currency play a part? will there be some sort of agreement pushed by the u.s. to force strengthening of the yuan? what are we likely to see? i think that is unlikely. the chinese saw what happened to the japanese economy after the plaza accord. it would be unlikely the chinese officials would agree to any clause that includes strengthening of the currency that could erode its competitiveness. what we might look to is the precedent with some of the ,ecent u.s. deals with canada mexico. what sort of currency clauses were put in those deals? it is about these generic comments we see and all of these g20 communiques, all this stuff, an agreement not to have a competitive devaluation very at
some clause that both sides agree that there will be no competitive devaluation. that is probable. some economists say there will be a transparency issue. some sort of clause were both sides would share more details, more granularity on how they manage currencies especially on the chinese side. that may help allay some fears, but if we go back to what trump was looking for on the campaign trail, chinese -- china is a currency manipulator, he wanted the chinese to allow their currency to strengthen. what the chinese have shown more evidence of doing is supporting the currency because they know they need a stable currency so if they are doing anything, it is to support, not to weaken the currency. after someeels like time of urgency, president trump saying they are close to a deal, he wants to set up a meeting feels likeent xi,
with lost momentum. how close are we to an agreement? that is the big question. we have mnuchin and lighthizer in beijing for talks. the chinese go-to guy for these talks these days, scheduled to be in washington from next week. the talks are on. the chapter is that perhaps -- the chatter is that perhaps if they are close to make -- making a deal on paper, there are issues outstanding. lighthizer has talked about the issues around i.t., enforcement. those seem to be the sticking points. the question now is, if we do get some sort of deal from the back room guys, something lighthizer, mnuchin, and their chinese counterparts agreed to, is that the full deal or will
there be questions that only trump and xi can agree to? that is the issue that will keep markets on edge for a little while longer. hopefully, we are getting towards some sort of agreement. haidi: malcolm scott, coming to us in tokyo. traders have been increasing bets on rate cuts from the fed. treasuries surging as global investors seek safety in bonds among concerns about a slowdown. our next guest says bond yields could stay low for three years. he is the chief investor in a private bank. good to see you. thealk a lot about classical recession risk that comes from superlow yields, negative yields across some of these markets. what about the returns? what did should we expect?
or globally?ia >> both. thehe big picture is that environment for real yields, which is subject to inflation and taxes, that environment has been under pressure in some parts of the world including australia recently. starting with australia, clearly we are entering a major paradigm shift where australians are living with a very low and inverting yield curve, lower than the u.s. the big picture, the high yielding status of some countries like australia is shifting away from them back to the u.s., which is now a relatively higher yield are -- .ielder that means investors are increasingly fighting low and negative real yields in countries like australia by thinking more about how to be active in you -- in the u.s. market structure. that is the reality that people are gradually accepting.
?> what about asian bonds taking a look at the yield u.s. 10 year,the which has been collapsing, it is at about a seven month high. does that indicate, if you are yield, asia is the place to be? >> from the market structure perspective, asian corporate community and their levels of debt means the compensation has to be higher by design from a structural perspective. that is unlikely to change. we see those levels are fairly -- fairly compensating for the difference in credit profiles. the investors that have been going into the long dated bond markets are generally a little different than those who have the capacity to understand credit principles on individual .orporations in asia those levels don't necessarily represent an attractive option. it is more about fair compensation or a different debt level.
>> what will determine the staying power of these very sharp moves in the rates market? are two orthere three factors that combine. the starting point for us is, the european central bank of japan have been unable to capture the opportunity to start unwinding and phasing away from -- quantitative easing. that is at an unfortunate time where the growth factor is not productive. the high-yielding status in the u.s. becomes even more attractive for global bond investors, so when you combine those together and the power of capital, that says i really onreciate a 2.5 or 2.6 seal treasuries versus other parts of the world. the inabilitywith of the other central banks to play their part like the u.s. said have led to those moves.
air is one other thing that is fundamental. markets are increasingly impatient. for many in the u.s. and europe, they are thinking about, when will china provide turnaround support in terms of its economy to become a little less focused on bond yields? those numbers will come through but they will take time. china is a credit fueled economy. you make decisions about credit supply and the effects are in media. today they are blending selective credit tools as well as fiscal tools and that highlights that there were economy is more mature. it takes longer to see the positive growth affect treated in the meantime, the markets are impatient. bonds ishy the bid for occurring. >> always a pleasure having you here with us. coming up, it is a big week for chinese banks. we will take a look at what to expect. this is bloomberg.
haidi: this is daybreak asia. shery: it is a big week for chinese banks with the big for reporting results. on wednesday china construction bank posted a 5% jump in profit as the lender benefited from government stimulus measures. let's get to sophie and take a look at how chinese banking stocks have fared. ie: after a solid performance in january, the momentum for chinese banking stocks have faltered leading up dilution.arnings banks are facing market -- margin contraction and navigating a targeted easing environment. analysts remain bullish, with baikal outpacing most others.
even with this conviction, said, as you can see, for china construction bank there is a spread between the market price and target price narrows considerably from the levels last summer when it was the widest since 2011. we did see them lose -- lower the price target. $6.90.ck is trading at shery: let's bring in our banking analyst. what would be the key drivers for chinese banks earnings in 2019? >> i would say the investors may want to focus on the growth. worryingle will be about the margin trends going forward. for long growth, the overall
market could the expand against the backdrop of easing. policymakers [indiscernible] none gdp growth rate. growth may product not exceed the pace of last year. on the margin front, we have seen a lot of loan pricing reduction in the market in the fourth quarter, and to support the economy we expect a regulator and the central bank will ask the banks to lower their loan pricing further. overall may not be as rosy as the market perceived. haidi: is there a concern about credit quality deterioration is the slowdown continues? >> i would say so.
already adjusted down the overall gdp growth target this year and if you see, in fact industrial numbers coming in, it hasn't hurt around yet even with a lot of easing starting in the fourth quarter of 2018. i want to highlight, even if reportual banks worsening credit quality, many big banks in the country have reserves for the credit downturn if there is one. the ratio ofshed .00%, up 195% many other big chinese banks are pushinge same thing, their coverage to 360% or so. areink although bad times coming, they should be well
haidi: this is daybreak asia. i'm shery ahn in new york. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts. world biggest oil producer will buy a state -- a stake in sabic for 69 billion dollars. our reporter joins us from hong kong. what is the rationale behind aramco doing this now? >> this is magnificent deal, the biggest in the middle east so far. a region where we are seeing so much at the moment. to rationale is for aramco diversify. they are the world's largest oil producer, and as you remember, they were looking into a potential ipo last year. that was postponed after investors got concerned about
devaluation of the company, and now the company is basically trying to diversify, and get more into the petrochemical side of the business and grow by buying the stake in sabic. it is a very bold, interesting move we are seeing. haidi: could it -- shery: could it trigger other moves in the region? >> es. the pace is frantic. there are many deals taking place so far this year. we came from last year in which the activity was pretty robust, and now so far, the first quarter, it is increasing significantly. i think it is a region in the world to keep an eye on, and we will see more in the coming months. shery: is the ipo likely to happen? >> great question. meare checking that, believe
. chances are high that it will happen at any point in time. it is still unclear, it is a a large deal. i think everybody wants that to happen at some point, so yes, we are likely to see that. it remains to be seen when. thank you so much for that. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. j.p. morgan chase said to be cutting hundreds of jobs in its asset and wealth management division after a review of staffing levels. the bank employed nearly 24,000 people in the unit at the end of last year. 4% more than 2017. j.p. morgan cut jobs in august when it dismissed about 100 staff and asset management -- in asset management after a review. troubles mounting at
sweden's oldest lender over allegations it provided misleading information about suspected money-laundering. swedish tv says sweet bank is facing a u.s. investigation into convicted felon and former trump campaign chairman paul manafort was among those who received submission -- suspicious payments. shery: an online startup is due to announce it has raised millions and funding. a $1.1 billion valuation. it operates in the u.s. and europe and says it is now turning its focus to expanding in asia. backed artificial intelligence startup is close to atding that will value it more than $1 billion. the developer is aiming to raise
$100 million. google's erect investment in china after it pulled its search engine in 2010. let's get a preview of what to watch later. sophie: we are on earnings watch. 2018 estimates. watching china galaxy security after they fell 30%. they met estimates for earnings could be under pressure. air china's profit is trending higher after 2018 results beat estimates. flipping the board, synnex china may have a profit surge. it is unlikely to repeat the performance this year. we are watching $995 million .aised
also watching hong kong developers as j.p. morgan says the cities property prices could improves.s liquidity we are watching reaction to news that a wheelock led consortium and -- airport area. ahead of the trade talks to be held in beijing with lighthizer and mnuchin, let's show you what is happening with chinese stock momentum. the shanghai composite has stayed in a tight trading range and as you can see, turnover has dropped to the lowest level in nearly a month. heading towards a four-year average after hitting a peak earlier this month, indicating investor caution on trade negotiation is very much looming large. expected,rough is especially when it comes to the yuan, as china is not seen as moving away from already decided
upon measures in that space. haidi: sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. let's take a look at the markets that are trading at the moment. a down day for asian equities. u.s. stocks retreated on the the of another leak in global bond rally. renewed concerns over global growth, and we had the 10 year treasury yields dropping to the lowest since december 2017. region, beingthe felt on the nikkei 225, off by 1.6%. futures under a lot of pressure. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ david: the legend is you began trading convertible bonds out of your dorm room. ken: when you make a few thousand dollars, you are rich. david: did you say you are going to do this full-time? ken: -- david: how does somebody invest at citadel? ken: we have been closed for a long time. david: your parents must be proud of you. ken: -- david: fishy efforts say, where should i invest -- does she ever say, where should i invest? ken: