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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  March 29, 2019 1:30pm-3:30pm EDT

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parliament have failed again. a third vote failed. theresa may said the latest results will have great consequences. fear we are reaching we are currently higher. the limits of this process in this house. this is bloomberg. ♪ this house has rejected no deal. it has rejected no brexit. on wednesday, it rejected all the variations of the deal on the table. and today it has rejecting approving the withdrawal agreement alone, continuing a process on the future. i will continue to press the case for the orderly brexit that the result of the referendum demands. >> there will be another chance on monday to come up with their own proposal with how or if britain leaves the european union. president trump says he will close the southern border next week unless mexico immediately
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stops illegal migration into the united states. threatenedodically to close the border, and he declared a national security because of the number of migrants crossing illegally. has tweet, he said the u.s. the weakest immigration laws in the world. the white house has received a package of new sanctions on russia intended to punish the kremlin for the 2018 nerve agent attack on a former russian spy in the u.k. mayor concerned that officials within the state and treasury department vetted the sanctions and are waiting approval from president trump. russia is suspected to be behind the intended assassination of circus gribble and his daughter huizinga russian developed nerve agent. the national security advisor said in nicolas maduro is using foreign military personnel to stay in power. john bolton condemned the venezuela president for using russian assets. a statement from bolton warned
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countries outside the western wasn't -- -- or any or anyone else in the region. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. amanda: from toronto, i am amanda lang. welcome to "bloomberg markets." top stories from around the world -- another brexit defeat. u.k. perlman had an per minister theresa may at third rejection. the eu calling for an emergency summit on april 10. we will have the latest.
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and we have liftoff. lyft soaring in its debut after raising more than $2 billion in an ipo priced at the top of its elevated range. dirty little's secret, look inside wall street's etf tax dodge. >> let's get the first word. vonnie: a quick check on major averages. president trump says he will close the southern border next .4%.&p up immediatelymexico the dow is up .5%. stops illegal migration into the united states. and the nasdaq is up .5%. he has periodically threatened to close the border. the lyft ipo adding optimism to he has declared a national emergency because of the number the market. it is struggling to stay little of migrants crossing illegally. in a tweet today, the president said the u.s. has the weakest higher this week. i am looking at celgene and immigration laws in the world. plus, mexico has the strongest. distal myers squibb. that deal getting the go-ahead. the white house received a package of new sanctions on very important because to punish thees common for a nerve agent attack on a former russian spy in the wellington and others tried to stopogether, and u.k.
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bloomberg has learned officials it is not certain it will at the state and treasury department are awaiting for happen. the shareholder advisory firm approval from president to issue saying star board, them. russia was suspected to be behind the attempted assassination of circus cripple including the fact that there and his daughter -- sergei was no interim ceo named, leaving acumen leadership skirpal and his daughter. potentially. but they said the companies were juan guaido is renewing his remiss in communication. promise that aid will be coming amanda: i want to look at one to the south american country within days. measure of how stocks are not he was forced to renege on that winning. last month after security forces first, a measure of how they are. blocked the u.s. from crossing this is a look at the best quarterly gain you have seen in the border. seven years. according to a note from bank of maduro calls that part of a coup america, it coincides with $79 attempt against him. in mozambique, colorado billion in stock outflows, so we continues to spread among survivors of the devastating are not persuaded, apparently, by the gains we have seen. cycling. stillssible reason, we're fatalsease can be within hours if not properly seeing profit downgrades treated. swamping upgrades. health officials have rushed that is across the market but almost one million vaccine doses not as bad as the end of last over the weekend hoping to stem year. the spread.
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thousands of people who were the revisions or less, but displaced by the cyclone two they're still worse than any weeks ago are now living in bad growth expectations. definitely seeing some negative conditions in temporary shelters. mood. it will be interesting to see if global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 this strong quarter changes the journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. outflows. vonnie: speaking of lyft, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg intelligence says nobody has been talking about margins. they have to get to 75% for that company to be stable on a long-term basis or they are far from that at the moment. that will be one of the key things to watch in the years ahead. caroline: it is 3:00 p.m. in new will do someand we york and seven i copy him in talking about the valuation of london. this company later in the show. look at the difference from the -- 7:00 p.m. in london. ipo price and where stocks start theu.k. per minister hence trading. lyft is in good company, right election cannot agree to elect deals. up there with google and alibaba. the ride-hailing giant shares traded on the first day of trading. first quarter finale. stocks climbed, treasury yields not all are wildly successful declined. for investors, like snap. are we getting
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comfortable with the chaos? in terms of a first-day gain, all that and more coming up. scarlet: first, let's get a maybe this is a company you want to be in. check of the markets. vonnie: exactly. u.s. stocks are now entering the and you know the people that got in on the first day, including late buying on this final day of potentially some of the drivers the week, month, and quarter. that got bonuses thanks to this we now have the major indexes ipo, maybe they got in, and you for big caps up by 0.7%. know they're happy right now. amanda: yes, we hope they are, making it for some unhappiness. small caps lagging a bit behind today. back to brexit, parliament is among the advancers or leading rejecting the british prime the advancers, health care minister's agreement for third intact while financials and energy a little on the weak side time, leaving the u.k. with the choice of either crashing out in with the russell's 2000 up. weeks are becoming trapped in the eu for many more months. caroline: the best game for global stocks we have seen since let's get the latest with stuart bigs in london. 2012. a quarter of the s&p since 2009. now we have the real potential we have seen stocks getting a brexit,er election, no push up the hopes of a trade deal. they are talking. or to remain. they seem to be nearing some sort of a consensus. scarlet: right. every passing day seems to add we will see how that shakes out. to the uncertainty of this running off story. >> i think that is right. every time we think this of a fifth week of gains. political crisis could not get any worse, parliament finds a of course, the etf that tracks
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way to make it worse. the u.k. big caps not doing much today, on the plus side for the of anything right now. we do not have a path ahead for government, the margin of defeat was dramatically reduced from what happens in the u.k. caroline: ongoing concerns in the u.k.. the first time that prime theresa may's brexit deal fails minister theresa may brought her deal for a vote. a three-time. talks of a no deal. nevertheless, it is a significant hurdle for the government in order to get this concerns. volatility coming down on the british pound but the pound has vote through. until that happens, the options been falling with it. onrlet: a no deal brexit that you mentioned are still on the table. the new date for no deal brexit april 12 if nothing happens between now and then. , 6373, ats highest is april 12. that is the new date everyone is four-month high. aspiring to. the country deepened its meantime, we will see if they production cuts. can come up with something in now let's look at some of the action with our reporters. parliament and get brexit done. what are you watching? romaine: we are watching what is vonnie: the prime ministers sounded did when we surprised the stock of the day. that this vote do not pass. did she really anticipate that lyft opening at 8724. it was up 21% at the open and is it might this third time? >> i suppose in the run-up to holding. this vote, she pledged to step that would represent a gain of 12% or 13% on the day. down once brexit was delivered, i thought it interesting to compare to some of the first day and she was bringing her way gains for some of the more
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forward in a slightly different format today. notable ipos in the past 12 it represents a final role of months. the dice, as it were. the tax management software company had one of the best day from theon the it is possible she thought that that could get it over the line. ipo to close, about 87%. if so, only a slim majority. healthn tell -- guardant morning,ment this was up 69%. there was residual opposition to a bunch of other companies all the agreement she reached with the european union. having monster days on their first day. it looks like the odds are on the flipside, there have been some notable first day flops. stacked against her. vonnie: stuart, thank you. meaderna one of for more on brexit and the global ramifications, let's bring a senior euro and brexit the big ones. analyst joining us from austin, texas. what is the way forward here, another fell 7% in its first day of trading. both on your side and on its first day of britain's side now? has two the u.k. till trading, ended up being one of the best ipos of the past six weeks to come up with a month or so. solution, which could include a fourth vote, but it will be hard even though the first day decline did not give a sense of for the government to convince where the stock is going, it ended up performing well. the speaker of the commons to approve.
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or the u.k. will have to make all told, the first day of the gains do not reflect exactly how very difficult choices, the stock will perform over the long-term. including asking the european overall, we get a little sense union for more time, of what it has done. participating in the european parliament election, and coming sarah: the s&p is off to its up with a different strategy. best start to a year since 1998, i will say the chances of a general election are increasing. but it has been a bit of a tale of two halves for the quarter. are seeing strong take a look at the first half of protests going on right now. the quarter. this chart shows you the performance of the top sectors through the second week of from canadaisory february. has been updated for the u.k. clearly risk on. clearly cyclical. because of these protests. the rest of the world is as you can see, industrials there at the top and energy, watching, so what does it do in real estate. that is in the mix, but also trying to gauge the stability of the economy some of the tech. outcomes? utilities were with the worst we have talked about the city performer in the half. center and the financial center. how do you measure with that with the potential of a new a bit more defensive. we see other sectors up there at election with a lot of uncertainty? the top. >> of course it would have a big text still the best performer. but utilities come in at number impact on the u.k. economy, the two. european economy, and a lesser real estate still in the mix. staples not on the stock but also in the mix now. extent the american economy. but it is the worse of all the even though everyone is talking
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scenarios from an economic point of view. about the first quarter is being there will a delay, this off to the races start of the year, and the second half we have seen a bit of a dim. luke: i would like to continue be uncertainty, but the main in the theme of the everything question, the final shape of rally. two things stood out to me this brexit, will not be answered. if we have delay, which i think corner. one is the leverage portfolio that goes long, companies a lot is a possibility, the brexit will not be an immediate threat of high market leverage and for a few more months. short ones that don't, it had but at some point, all the its best quarter since 2013. uncertainty will come back because the house of commons is actually it's first positive very invited -- very divided. quarter over the past nine. awkwardit is a very it scrapped a two-year losing streak. this is something you would see position to be in. there is maybe the potential for in a high beta rally, which is what we have in the first quarter. agreementtyle customs but i think one interesting note on that is that the factor actually peaked a couple days ago on thursday, last thursday, . but with that solve anything in terms of getting the u.k. back right before the yield curve inverted so you wonder if folks with its sovereignty? >> it will be interesting to want to be invested in high leverage companies while they watch the vote in the commons also have one eye on the end of next week for that. the cycle. the bottom panel, wrist. the clock keeps he had a rough and to 2018. end to panel had a rough ticking.
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next week, parliamentarians may 2018. be persuaded to vote for a softer brexit. the norway option of remaining a name changence makes. we are now off to the best in the single market seems to be quarter for the fund as of march too much because it would force 28. the other risk parity funds that the u.k. to accept eu migrants have retained risk parity in their name also having the best and for the country to remain in quarters on record, according to the european courts of justice. data compiled by bloomberg. acceptable thing you cannot get more of an everything rally than that. scarlet: great stuff. would be to remain in the thank you so much. customs union. the white house chief economic of course, if you remain in the advisor says the u.s. economy is customs union, you cannot very strong and he is calling on the fed to cut interest rates by redesign free trade agreements 50 basis points, albeit in with other parties. separate remarks today. how do you reconcile a strong this april 10 summit, economy with looser monetary will there be room to negotiate policy? even further? joining us now from los angeles that havesome points is the president of global strategies. -- iss it in cap place been sticking for both sides when it comes to the current brexit agreement. >> it is interesting because the guess it encapsulates the push eu has not really changed its and pull because people are position over the past two years. enthusiastic the economy seems to be doing well and then you see pricing in of looser for them, the integrity of the monetary policy. >> exactly. single market has to be
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protected. the irish border has to remain i think you hit the nail on the open. head. basically, the eu is telling the in terms of what it is the u.k., you will have more time if equity investors are looking you ask for it, but you need to for, they want the economy to remain strong, and they want come back with a credible plan on what to do next. pick onely you should interest rates to remain low. in other words, what larry of the existing options, customs kudlow said in his today, i thie union, single market, free trade agreement. but the eu will not tolerate an factually mutually inconsistent ad hoc agreement. for a macro person to be implementing policy because if there: you do not think the economy is very strong, you is any scenario which the irish also do not want to say that you border could be negotiated with the eu? want to cut interest rates. you do it when the economy is weak. that doesn't seem to be a nonnegotiable point on the u.k. side? is backingeu the other question going beyond this is i think fear on the part of the administration that if ireland, a member of the european union. the interest rates are not cut, the equity rally may not last it is more interested in backing ireland then backing the u.k., departing member. and that we may be entering into a recession just as we are going the irish border is connected to the good friday agreements, into the 2020 election season. which have brought peace to so there are a whole lot of ireland to modern today. influences which go into these, i do not see how there could be a brexit agreement that involved scarlet. caroline: what is interesting is some kind of border control in
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ireland. also it seems to be mutually i think keeping the border open exclusive or many have theorized will be a priority for both sides. is we truly exclusive, while you amanda: we will leave it there. have such a rally in u.s. government bonds, fear of a always great to talk to you. recession, but at the same time, stratfor.lyst at money flowing into equities, which signal the exact reverse. spoke with, amber is it that the bond market is behind equity market and they are copying the risk off concern the blackberry ceo for his ide-hailingout the r we had in december? or is the bond market leading the equity market and we will see a bigger fallout later? >> in my examination of past industry. here is a little of that. >> we're one of the leading recessions and what caused it, the bond markets have usually software providers for automobiles. the more these are built, the been ahead of the equity markets more world ti will get. get.e more royalty i will and have also been a better predictor of recessions. so, yes, i wish them every if you look at what happens success. ♪ before the 2007 to 2009 yieldion, the 2 to 10 curve was negative, inverted. in october and november of 2006, almost exactly a year since the great recession began, but the equity market was rallying into
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the first half of 2008. the question is, what is leading what? i think the bond market was clearly the better indicator. the economy had gone into a recession in late 2007. and equity investors were still pushing up equities. the crisis hit a high of $145 a 2008, in the summer of leading the ecb president to be raising interest rates, think inflation will be the risk to the global economy. equities can give you a wrong signal. scarlet: ok. what is the signal on the bond market being sent right now with five straight weeks of gains for the 10 year treasury for instance and the yield going to as low as 2.33% earlier this week? >> scarlet, i think the 10 year yield going down as well as the fact that the yield curve has remained very flat for a long
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period of time, it inverted in the case of three months to 10 year last friday and while it went a little positive today, it is still essentially zero or negative. but the two to 10 on the other hand has been either in single digits or low teens now going back to december. so that is the signal which i consider to be very significant that the yield curve has been so flat for so long. the equity market rally has continued. in other words, the bond market says the flatness of the curve is going to persist no matter what the equities are doing, so you have a short-term versus a long-term issue here. short-term, you have the equities rallying, people try to make money when they can. morehe bond market is much of a top-down phenomenon, and that is a major topic for the vonnie: president trump florida blue brick opinion piece i did last week.
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sing there will be a press yeah.ne: conference with the small how should we be preempting all business administration head at thanp.m. eastern, so more of this and structuring the portfolio in light of these two hours from now there will be varying signals and the fact a press conference. that you are a little more politico, they are saying concerned about the way the economy is going? >> i think it says that if you were going to be a fantastic someone will be stepping down from the head of the fda. market timer, you can take advantage in equities perhaps there could be a contender to that are a bit longer. but if you are risk-averse and replace commerce secretary -- to much more oriented to the replace him. medium-term, you want to go maybe even the likes of wilbur defensive. ross. you want to increase the highest so 4:00 p.m. eastern. grade fixed income in your portfolio. right now rather than go searching for the last few amanda: we're talking about l dollars and then be able to be defensive and do well over the next two to three years time. yft going public. the ipo is priced at the top end those are your choices as an investor. caroline:>> thank you. of elevated range. shares down from the highs of the day but still up more than caroline: keep on writing those 12% from that offer price. joining us as the senior equity analyst at morningstar, with us opinion pieces for us as well. coming up, i jump off of a move from chicago. to confidence, endorsing the as a look at your note, it looks
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acquisition. the latest in our deals report. like where you see this company fairly valued is where it trades it is wall street's dirty little today, at the high mark at $72. secret. banks are pumping billions of i wonder whether you see much dollars into the out of etf's with heartbeat trades. upside for the share price here. we will explain just ahead. debutaises on its trading >> i think we are having difficulty with the -- after raising over $2 billion in an ipo. the range. vonnie: i am going to try the same question. do you see more upside to the shares? this is bloomberg. all right, we will come back to ♪ seniora little bit, equity analyst at morningstar. he is here to talk to us about lyft. this is bluebird. ♪
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now for it is time social climbers, the stocks making waves in social media today. you can find this on the bloomberg. watching lyft in first, we have blackberry jumping the most in half a year its debut, and we're back with after fourth put a year after the senior equity enos from fourth of the results surpassed analyst estimates. morningstar chicago. the firm got a boost from strong gains in licensing revenue. -- senior equity analyst from
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blackberry reporting sales of morningstar chicago. $99 million from licensing its there are a lot of future gains existing patent to other businesses, up 71% from the priced in here at this price previous year. point. >> there is. in terms of upside, not next, h&m reporting for skoda profits that beat estimates. necessarily from a valuation the retailer has been cutting standpoint, we are valuing it at back on sales. it is introducing buttocks at $72 or 24 billion dollars total lower price points, hoping to market capitalization, but in avoid massive discounts later terms of overall growth, there is upside. growth up to 7% to start the quarter, but the downside is we see these guys, the top line are made revenue growing at a 40% tapered in the next five now. and 24% 10 years from finally, a company forging its biggest deal in more than a decade, agreeing to pay more than $6.9 billion to buy into a japanese cancer treatment as part of its push to be a global oncology powerhouse. we think there is a lot of those are your social climbers. opportunity for these guys to tap into. a market we are valuing to be around $500 billion ridesharing caroline: thank you. market by 2023. so there is upside from an speaking of deals, and today's deals report, and endorsement. operations standpoint. topline growth and endorsement. profitability, but we think most of that is priced in right now. but in bloomberg diligence says advisors came out supporting the acquisition. the shares are up on the news. this needs to get to 75% here now with the latest is ed margins. do you see that happening, and hammond. how? >> the gross margin, yes, we do this has aggravated those that
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were pushing against the deal, see that happening. in particular those activist investors. fortunately, there are some ed: yes. components of the gross margin that's right. that resemble more fixed costs, such as payment processing. declared they will also, the technology costs that not pursue anything more in they incur. they are only paying hosting this. they will vote against the deal with the smart about dust small costs to their cloud service amount of shares they hold-- provider, which is amazon, aws. small amount of shares they from that standpoint, we do see hold. they felt the deal has enormous merit. opportunities for gross margin to actually expand a little bit. of course, the proponents of the the two companies would be couple entry. it was the only deal on the table. cost of goods that are not thatsarily that fixed, and werethey came out, they saying they were approached by is the insurance costs they endure. someone else. when a pup another cost that is not fixed, payments to drivers they speculated of significant -- amanda: another cost that is interest. if you read the report, it says not fixed, payments to drivers. there is a pretty poor they don't think there was a deal made. relationships, and they are accused of underpaying. is that going to have to change, ring of: not optimistic driver pay going up? >> it really depends. support. the get new york, for example, scarlet: now that they made
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what new york is doing right now their position clear, does is looking at maybe implementing anyone say that is nice but we will go our own way anyway? ed: they absolutely can't. notnimum pay per ride, it is not binding, just a recommendation. necessarily minimum wage, so but about the fact that there that could actually decline were so many different things there take rate, which we have these managers need to vote on, they don't get to look closely already modeled that in. at every share they will vote. if you look at the filing of they tend to take the advice was, there tapering in q4 unless there is a reason not to. the interesting thing will be wellington. around 20%. we are saying let's be a little again, came out against the deal more realistic given the and said they do not like it and regulatory measures that could will vote against it. present bumps in the road, so we are actually assuming it to go now will this persuade them? under any normal form, they down to the low 20's over the long-term. those are priced in. would vote with the recommendation, but if we can hop into my terminal for a time,: we appreciate your second and take a look at the spread on this deal, that is the a senior equity analyst at real tell. morningstar, joining us from it has gone very tight today. chicago on the first day of at oneout almost 1% lyft's trading. president nixon era, bank point and has come in at huge amounts. caroline: yes. managers able to help etf huge drop and now you look investors dodge texas. -- dodge at it, subset of seven.
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whether or not they have a shot taxes. this is called heartbeat trades, of voting against it remains to a fascinating read. be seen. if you look at the bar chart, us because youd you can see how the trades spiked recently. said they think it is better our next guest wrote a piece about it. than other alternatives at the moment, but what is in it at the tell us about these heartbeat trades. moment? a beautiful name but not so what can they pump up in terms pitiful in practice. >> when in etf needs to get rid of value? on at the giovanni of a stock, say it follows the end of last month and he was s&p 500 and a stock is leaving a bank, the etf will ask talking a lot about this. to become an investor just for so through the he things putting these two company's together, they will have such phenomenal r&d magic of the tax code, the expertise and great science. investor -- the bank can take they will be able to deliver the the stock out, and it is as if next generation of cancer drugs. he is committed to that. the etf sold it but there is no tax bill. this is an industry where there neither party pays a tax bill. has been this shift in the either this practice landscape of these big pharma companies going from being very r&d heavy businesses to selling has to stop or perhaps the tax through their existing pipeline. law has to change so it does not if we put these two cookies trigger a capital gains tax on the straight. together, we will increase the
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which do you think is more r&d and also have a strong likely? >> hard to say. pipeline and potentially a better future together. scarlet: thank you so much. there is a bigger tax loophole i was senior deals reporter with here that etf's take advantage of all the time. the latest. that has been around for a long now we have some breaking news time. on the robert mueller report. people know about it. attorney general barr has sent a so policymakers have had a letter saying he anticipates chance to change it if they wanted to but have not so far. these heartbeat trades have not releasing the robert mueller report by mid april. gotten a lot of tension -- a lot presumably that would put us in about two weeks time. of attention before. we do not know if the irs would, barr says his department will but you could imagine them make the reductions required to stepping in and saying you cannot do them. make the report. vonnie: so nothing happens and take out some of the confidential information, its keeps going, right, anything that might jeopardize national security, but it looks turns out more than 2200 heard like the robert mueller report will be made public by mid april. we don't know how long it is. it could be 300 pages, 400 pages. beat trades worth $330 billion, what we know is what we got from is there a danger that they pose the attorney general, which was a very distinct 4 pages. risk to the system at some point caroline: president said, sure, in the system backs off? publish it, and now he feels as >> it is interesting. if he has been vindicated. i was reading this amazing story about how this one publisher in brooklyn who makes books out of our impression talking to banks
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who actually do these things is reports such as these finds them that they are not a big deal for the banks. and fix it will be sold out within 10 days. $3 billion sounds like a lot of scarlet: a lot of black lines money, but they are hedged they with the reductions. hold him against very liquid you might have pages and pages. stocks, only infer 24 or 48 wonder what this was. caroline: leaves it to the hours. imagination. probably more fun. in terms of risk-taking, the a quick look at what is banks do not see it is a big risk they are taking. happening in terms of the markets overall because we have amanda: is there an argument seen the markets relatively higher on this particular end of that anything that is not done for a reason, really just a the week, end of the month, end of the quarter trading day. nasdaq up 0.7%. technical trade, is not good for the market? lyft sending shares surging on >> definitely, there is trading an ipo. happening, it is just to more risk on as we hope for a facilitate these heartbeats that would not happen without it. in that way, you are generating u.s.-china trade deal. scarlet: absolutely. lyft coming down from its high a little extra trade. but if you are an etf investor, earlier, now at $80.90. you are glad to pay those extra this is bloomberg. ♪ trading costs if you get this big tax deferral benefit from the trade. vonnie: it is pretty amazing, isn't it? amanda: it really is. i would be surprised if something did not happen.
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that is bloomberg's zach miter. thank you for that. on monday,ng note, canada's finance minister will be our exclusive guest. that will be at 1:30 p.m. eastern. forontinue to watch, today, that announcement coming from president trump. you can catch that later on this network, at 4:00 p.m. shearsare watching lyft as the stock continues to rocket out of the gate on its first day of trade. york and toronto, this is bloomberg. ♪
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insight.ow for options on the phone from chicago is scott bauer of prospect prosper trading academy. thanks for joining us. one thing i would like to look
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at is there seems to be a quota rent rush to show clients that you own stocks and are rushing into them at quarter end. do you believe this case will continue? are we going to have a hard bite from buybacks starting in q2? what do you see as the calendar turns to april? scott: we are seeing some pretty weak economic data but now we have optimism once again with china tariff issues. that to me will be the next driver over the next week or so, and then we are flush into earnings season. give it a couple weeks here and let's see what the earnings start coming out. luke:luke: let's get to our trade. -- luke: let's get to your trade. can you comment on what level of longer you'll treasuries we really need to see for this trade to be in the money? scott: sure. the etf i'm using is a twenty-year etf. everyone follows the 10 year, which is 235 or so. i'm looking for rates to rise so the 10-year would be up to 250
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or so. what i'm doing is buying a put spread because this works inversely so if rates rise, the tlc, the value will come down. i'm going out to make him a 122 put may 124, spread. i can do that for $.45. that is great reward to risk. i see rates at a minimum flattening out here and we will see what happens going forward with china and the earnings reports just like that moments ago. luke: over the past week, rates fall, equity volatility goes up and then comes down. do you think the equity market is pretty sanguine about the prospects it is getting from the bond market? scott: yes. i think it has taken it in stride. hit,hock,tion, the wordt's get the first the overall market has absorbed that really well. the focus will be on china and then earnings. thousands of brexit supporters luke: thanks very much for in the streets of london today
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is lawmakers rejected prime joining us. this is bloomberg. minister's eu withdrawal deal caroline: just going to pick it for a third time. marchers. up from here because we have breaking news from apple. signs with slogans, including no it would appear they are deal is better than a bad deal. canceling what is called the airpower product. every nation has the right to they say they will not achieve their high standards but they self-determination. believe in while chart -- in a larger march took place last week in which hundreds of thousands of anti-brexit wireless charging. protesters demanded a new this is uber. referendum. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ chinese and u.s. negotiators you. wrapped up talks in beijing today. the treasury secretary called the talks constructive and said he looks forward to welcoming tona's vice premier liu he washington next week to continue to the discussion. president trump expressed optimism about the talks, saying we're getting close. withdent trump will meet egypt's president's month at the white house. egypt has rolled back many the 2011won by uprising in the country.
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he has silenced most dissenting voices in the media would he was elected president in 2014 and reelected to another four-year term last year. more than a dozen parents charged in a new nationwide college admissions cheating scheme began in court, boston today, and there were abundant -- there are among more than 30 people accused. actresses phyllis huffman and lori loughlin are charged in the case but are not scheduled to be appear in court until next week. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
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amanda: 2:00 p.m. in new york and 6:00 p.m. in london. scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets: the close." parliament not agreeing to a brexit deal. lift off, ride-hailing jumping on the first day of trading. and stocks climb and treasury decline in terms of yields. are we getting comfortable with chaos? all that and more coming up. scarlet: first, check of the markets on the final trading day of this week, this month, and all of you. how you live, the first quarter. stocks opened higher and have what you love. stayed in the green. that's what inspired us to create america's most advanced internet. double-digit percentage games with health care industrials internet that puts you in charge. leading the way. that protects what's important. -- stocksworld start it handles everything, and reaches everywhere. having its best quarter since 2009. this is beyond wifi, this is xfi.
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we're starting to see less of a simple. easy. awesome. negative yield between three xfinity, the future of awesome. months and the 10-year, when looking at the erosion of the spreads, we have seen that yield curve sends shivers down bond markets' spine. some are shrugging it off. there is a great story out that stock markets are getting comfortable with this. scarlet: they freaked out in december and got tired of it, so that -- now they are happy pushing things higher. look at lyft pup, popping at its open. 20 four cents87 after the ipo was $72 a share. it has come down a little bit, but this is a big one that paves the way for others like uber and airbnb. caroline: it is with the likes ritika: let's get the first of spotify. word. and there is more further attorney general barr said today concern in the u.k. on the political crisis. that special counsel robert scarlet: let's look at some of mueller's breccia report will be
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today's action. submitted to congress once it is >> scarlet, i am looking forward properly redirected -- to the weekend, but i am looking redacted. forward to the big chinese data, wondering if the balance we are seeing so far this year will be barr also said he is available dealt -- wondering if the bounce to testify before the senate judiciary committee on may 1 and house judiciary panel on may 2. we are seeing so far this year will be validated. thousands of brexit supporters this one on the white line is up went through the streets of about 30%. lines are and teal london today as lawmakers rejected prime minister theresa may's eu withdrawal chinese manufacturing pmi data. a big bounce up. an update on the sunday evening. and the official one heading down. they are in contraction every territory. i wonder the extent to which we will see these movers move up or not and risk assets react. and that purple line is copper, $6,400 per ton. a note out saying chinese stimulus is not as commodity
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intensive as you think it is. global growth is not your friend. we see that going down to 6100. lyft.oking at lift -- pricing today, last time the market value and more than $23 billion. that is 10 times what it was four years ago. we have seen a lot of private financing, and five years or so it was about $2.5 billion. $72 per share. priced to sell ratio about 9.4 times, like spotify. the $1 billiond ride market. the numbers do not matter if you cannot monetize it. toppingper ride now $36. year-over-year growth has been declining since his second quarter of 2017. but fourth quarter of 2018, they did see an increase in net
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revenue per rider. they are a long way from profitability. they lost $1 billion last year. topline revenue growth is strong. but what will weigh on the valuation is the negative free cash flow, trying to turn that around into profitability. >> the other big news of the week was what we saw happen with the turkish lira. it did stabilize. the turkish lira actually gained this week, the second-best performing emerging-market currency on a weekly basis. peakassumes you do not behind what happened the week prior. for the full year, it is the second worst-performing currency. the head of emerging market strategy at td securities says monday will be a roller coaster ride. this is the elections on sunday, we could see significant depreciation in the lira, saying
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as much as 29% depreciation by may 1. look at one of the main currencies, the lira-yen. this is one to watch because on sunday into monday, japanese investors, particularly retail investors in the zero rate environment and have been chasing yield, they have piled into the turkish lira. we now see japanese margin traders and their long contracts the highest since january 2, the day before the big flash crash that's in the yen higher and the turkish lira lower by about 10 percent. caroline: great perspective on the weak performance of the lira. u.k. prime minister theresa may's effort to get her brexit deal through parliament failed today. 58 votes vote fell short of passing. texas, toyou called it earliere week.
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you said, look, we are going towards no deal here. what are the next steps? how are the eu preparing now? >> the eu are getting ready for a nodal exemption. if looking at parliament, there is one way forward for them, to form a committee to try to reopen negotiations. but remember who has to be on that committee. it cannot be someone from the government, because they pulled that authority back. so it has to be a high-ranking tory who is not a government. also someone from the opposition. so talking about boris johnson and jeremy corbyn starting a committee to talk about the european union. as an american, i would find that a delight, but i do nothing it will resonate very well in parliament. image ofaside from the boris johnson and jeremy corbyn approaching the eu, when i look at how the alliances shakeup, it is interesting.
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theirp is united on stance against the irish backstop. but the party is divided. it is not a labour versus tory issue, is it? it is the dividing line? >> it is not that clear. the parties need to reform with new factions. to a certain degree, the u.s. is going through the same thing. but we are a federal system in the u.s. and can figure out in the local, state, and national level. post,k. first past the majority rules come per litter -- parliament formation, when it happens, it happens all at once. this could be the issue that rationalization. it would be the first time in a century. but that is the least of the worries of this is where they go. we saw the independent party form, and it was really
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labour break off. what issues might the u.k. be built around? will it continue to be brexit until there is an outcome to that and then we see the recalling of issues and of party? >> let's deal with the brexit part because it is a little less complicated. because of the split in authority now between parliament and the government in regards to the brexit issue, parliament is in charge of the negotiations and the government is in charge of the upper is a operationalization. the only way forward constitutionally in the u.k. under the scenario is if the queen comes down, waives a sword, dissolves the government. not saying i recommend that, but it is the only way we do not get a hard exit scenario.
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scarlet: complicated. >> exactly. as for the u.k. political landscape after this, we have to have an election. because parliament and the tories have held votes of no-confidence in the may government, cannot come from that side. so it has to be may saying i am done and walking away and you have to figure it out and a fresh election. no way that will get sorted out before april 12. scarlet: a little bit of time. as for the european union, the eu 27 looks like a model of efficiency and contrast to the u.k. parliament. does this make the block stronger what is happening, with brexit? negotiating with the united kingdom, probably. i would say that. their version of the deal, the may deal, at its core, if the u.k. abides by the system and pays into the system it has no
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authority over negotiating those agreements in the first place. worst, for it is the the hardishe worst in one of the many reasons this deal would have never worked. for the other, the lid comes off and we go into a situation where the only european country with a strong government is france. everyone else is going through some version of what the brits are going through right now. so the germans cannot take a strong stance on anything. the italian government has gone populist. france does not have the money to force its vision of europe forward. so it is a stall out of the entire political system. caroline: a brief last question to bring it to the here and now, your probability that we go towards a general election, probability that the u.k. leaves the no deal? >> i would save you know deal is
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now north of 95%. whether or not there is a fresh election, that will have no impact on brexit, and that is entirely up to theresa may. if i were her, i would have quit a year ago, but she is a lot tougher than i am. scarlet: she is amazingly devoted to appeasing her own party even though they have turned on her again and again. peter, thank you. coming up, the search for a new wells fargo ceo, will the firm go outside for its next leader? plus, the road ahead for lyft, is it in the same league as twitter and spotify? will investors change their tune after the initial euphoria? one analyst warning of possible delays of the model 3. that is ahead in top calls. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: time for our top calls. jp morgan lowering its price target on tesla to underweight. quarter results looking at delivering model 3. flat on the day. cabledowngrading companies, including comcast. a price target of $42. analysts are cautious on cable fundamentals, particularly sustainability of conductivity driven earnings growth. finally, raymond james upgrading wells fargo to market perform after their ceo announced his departure. analysts says this removed a key headwind. nurse -- those are some top
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calls. scarlet: the departure of the former ceo of wells fargo triggering a high-stakes search for a successor, even as wells continues to reel from scandal and scrutiny from lawmakers. for two years, wells fargo insisted that someone within the ranks could fix this thing. now they could potentially go outside. they have an interim ceo right now. is he likely to become the ceo? >> the board said explicitly that they are only looking outside the company. it will be an external search. caroline: the stories put out, they have a wonderful selection they could go to. the list think about of potential successors, it is the top dog at one of the biggest banks in the world. it is not a huge list of people who can do the job. jp morgan has a good crop of
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people. someone like gordon smith leads the consumer division. you can look to people -- caroline: the cfo even. >> yes, and that would be cool because it would be a woman leading one of the biggest banks for the first time ever. at the richardok .avis types he led u.s. banking and has now retired, so people who left top jobs in the industry that could come back. or people, like matt james who left jp morgan. he is trying to help deutsche bank, as well. briefly, what regulatory issues might still be at risk? what does wells fargo still have to work out right now? >> wells fargo is not out of the woods. replacing sloan with someone
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from the outside will look better in the eyes of regulators who think it is too messy for an insider to clean up. but they still have more than one dozen outstanding consent orders. the federal reserve has banned them from growing assets past the end of 2017 levels. they are still dealing with that and ongoing investigations. the doj and sec are still conducting their investigations. so there are some outstanding issues for the new ceo. caroline: thank. according to their filing, tim sloan is still entitled to company pay and part-time driver for all of two years after his departure. huh? this is worth something like $400,000. i kind of get it because he is meant to still be consulting. scarlet: as long as he is
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consulting, he gets these works. but it is something shareholders cannot be excited about. caroline: i wonder how elizabeth warren is reacting. scarlet: she is holding her fire for now, i have a feeling. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: kathleen hays caught up with the dallas fed president in new york. they talked about slowing growth, monetary policy, and take a listen. >> it is no happening. we are not sure how much growth is going to slow, but my best judgment is we are going to slow down up to 2% growth. the bond market is suggesting it will be a little worse. we will have to see. that is what you are seeing in the bond market, skepticism and
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sluggish expectations for future growth. >> it is interesting that this bond rally seemed to get started after the fomc met, so all the 2019 hikes were off the table. has increasingly now started pricing in the chance of at least one rate hike this year. is that a possibility or is the bond market getting ahead? >> i have to emphasize, even in my own view, in my dot polot -- plot, and i do not have any rate increases for 2019, it does not mean that i cannot change my mind. it means, as i sat there in the march meeting, that was my base case for 2019. but it is always subject to change. forhat my main goal is
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monetary policy right now, the stance of policy, is that we are flexible and that we are patient. and i want to see how growth is going to unfold for the next several months in 2019. and based on what i see, and for me, i look not only at the economy heard dana, -- hard data, i look at reports and fixed income markets and the treasury curve, and based on all of that as we get later into the second quarter, i want to be flexible enough to have a policy where we can move appropriately. i do not know where that will be yet. could be no action at all. what i think we are well-positioned right now to take the appropriate move based on how the facts unfold. what would be a trigger to you to say it might be time to think about cutting rates? >> for starters, i have set our base case at the dallas fed is gdp growth for this year is going to be a little bit below 2%.
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confidencesome because we were saying all through 2018 that we thought growth in 2019 was going to slow meaningfully. it has turned out to be a little slower than we thought in 2019. but ifforecast, and there are ar of uncertainties, fiscal stimulus waning, tuncertaintiesh decelerating, issues with china, a long list of uncertainties, if i saw that the growth prospects were going to be below that base case forecast, then i would start thinking about the stance of policy. you know what i have been saying for the last couple of years is i don't think the fed should be restrictive in monetary policy and our stance, but i also felt that we're getting to the point through 2018 and even up to now, i do not think we should be accommodative either.
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i would say our stance right now is that we are mildly accommodative, in the neighborhood of neutral. neutral is an amorphous concept that is uncertain. so if i saw some slowing beyond our base case, which told me having a tighter policy than i thought, that would get me to say let's revisit policy. in that regard, the yield curve is one of several indicators i will look at to make that judgment. scarlet: that was robert kaplan. coming up, open to the public after much enthusiasm. lift pot makes its trading to be -- lyft makes its trading debut. we will see if it lives up to the hype. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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"all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. the firstt's get bloomberg has learned about a step down from the small
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business administration to help raise money for president trump 's reelection campaign. according to federal elections data, the man who cofounded world wrestling entertainment donated more than $6 million to the 2016 campaign. president trump says he and mcmahon will hold a news conference at 4:00 p.m. today. the british parliament rejected prime minister theresa may's brexit deal for a third time today, throwing the u.k. into deeper crisis. it was 58 votes short of passing, meaning the u.k. will have a choice of leaving the eu in two weeks or being trapped for many more months in a blog it has been trying to leave since 2016. the president of ukraine and his rifle are accused of bribing voters ahead of the national election. in a statement, the interior minister says campaigning for the president and the expert
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minister have been offering money in exchange for promises to vote for their candidate. those groups denied the allegations. abuseng new sex officials willfines and possible jail time for failing to report claims. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. some market watchers warn
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that it might be too early to fully commit. i would not be an investor but the public itself has an insatiable appetite. >> i would probably stay away because they are so far away from generating profit. >> we are to wait for them to go public today and get a quarter or two behind us to profitability. >> i am always looking at the quarters after the offering to see have a meet the expectations that have been given during the roadshows. they is a good sign that would do an ipo when earnings are negative because they are doing cutting-edge changes in technology. our guest is here to talk
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about it. thank you for taking the time. this is a traits ofsome might y fleeting achievement given there is a long road ahead. what do you think is the most important challenge? >> making sure they don't succumb to investor pressure and start chasing earnings and profits too early. and lyft account for 1% of personal transportation spending . the market growth potential is immense. >> where can it go? change,ople's behaviors as millennials start to decide they are not going to have cars,
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but live in the suburbs and need to be convinced that they cannot have a car and still get everywhere, this will require marketing spending and patients. the same patients that amazon had over a decade. >> that sounds like lyft doesn't change in strategy. at some point, they will have to do something to show that this is sustainable. >> if you take a 10 year or 15 year horizon, chances are the cost structure of the industry will change because of the arrival of autonomous vehicles.
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>> it's not just uber and lyft. it is those plus all of the other global rancher companies. there is also tesla who wants in on autonomous vehicles. ford once in and other companies. who is going to be the winner? arehe early platforms always going to have an advantage over the carmakers even a tesla because they have built the expertise. the regulatory relationships and the understanding the complexities of the business run on transportation. you will have a few platforms.
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i have seen a comparison with snapchat but that is unfair because snapchat has two giant competitors who are replicating its business. never a was revenue-generating company from the get-go. lyft was. the personal transportation market is a $5 trillion market. even if there are multiple market, if this was the there is enough space for multiple companies. >> we spoke with the cofounder of lyft about what he sees as the mission ahead. >> there are many future growth opportunities in this business.
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we looked at as a call option for the business. we may choose to do that sometime. >> no current plans right now. is it a missed opportunity? if the company is going to be investing in what it is doing right now and not do as much as a can overseas? >> what they really need to do now is focus on gaining wallet share in the united states. any innovation they could come up with, any investment they can come up with in getting a larger fraction of what people spend on personal transportation will be the right way to go. they can worry about the profits later. >> thank you for your expertise.
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coming up, trade talks wrapping in china. now the conversation shifts to washington, d.c. next week. this is bloomberg. ♪
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leading used cars company, carmax. let's sort through the numbers. what are they up to? is a sheer coincidence.
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it's interesting to have this car company come out with quartering -- quarterly results and be a standout. we are talking about their fiscal fourth quarter that ended in february, beating earnings estimate. they are selling more cars. last year, they were down 8%. they are managing to be more profitable. >> it is classified as a retailer. car dealers have typically try to stay away from selling cars
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online. carmax is setting up customer experience centers. they are trying to make it possible for people to buy cars entirely online or to buy them in the dealerships or some combination of the two. another part of their business is selling wholesale. >> thank you. now, chinese and u.s. negotiators wrapping up trade talks in beijing. it is that the talks were
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constructive and we are looking forward to welcoming the chinese were presented to an washington, d.c. next week. what do you expect next week? >> we are nearing the end but we have been here before. i spoke with larry kudlow yesterday. about whether or not the issue of tariffs is going to be used as a mechanism. he said there might be some tariffs that come off. endinguld suggest we are -- nearing the end of the trade talks. this is not time driven. this is policy enforcement driven.
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things have to be done just right. as the president said, it has to be a great deal. >> for steve mnuchin, he had a tweet called as talks constructive. his is the trade rep and i concluded constructive trade talks in beijing and i look forward to welcoming the chinese leader in washington, d.c. next week. >> it is interesting. after a while of not meeting face-to-face, there is a flurry of race to face meetings. i assume that means they are getting close. is that also because of optics? >> yes. it is interesting to see the president last night campaigning in michigan where trade is going to play domestically. he has been much more aggressive
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against speaker pelosi and democrats than he has against the leader of china. that no oneine is in the administration wants to get into a situation like the president had in vietnam where he walked out. >> there have been miscommunications. in some cases, the chinese pushed back on previous agreements. >> particularly with intellectual property. the president's comments about google were interesting this week. hear the rhetoric from google's perspective is interesting especially when the president had a different tone with regard to google. i want to shout out to our white house team that have exclusive
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about the change in policy in north korea. because of china and trade. >> it is always a jumbled mess when it comes down to competing interests. remind us of the timeline and the dates when he to look at here. >> april 3, everyone should look out for the chinese leaders visit to washington. trickery fordar the president to meet with china's president beyond june. if you are looking in the next two months, that would potentially be an opportunity. there isse are saying a new presidential cycle why not play the long game? >> larry kudlow managing
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expectations saying this is not time-dependent. thank you so much. coming up, rowing your way into the ivy league's. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> do you want your child to get into the ivy league? have them grab and or and row. more is our guest. >> there is an open secret among
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certain families and affluent circles in the u.s. that crew is a way to get into college. a lot of teams have walk-on's because they can't get enough people. these ivy league schools, this is a sport that they offer that is hard to get into in high school. there are very few high school rowing teams. it skews the advantage toward cap schools or affluent suburbs. >> this is a similar vibe in the u.k.. i went to oxford and i was the captain of my rowing team. i had never road before.
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you get great athletes to come in who don't need to live up to the epidemic -- academic standards that everyone else does. is that the case in the united states or not? take thedon't need to prowess and academic you -- academia? >> there are so many qualified and rowing or another sport is a way to set your kid off and make them more distinctive. examples of kids getting into the schools. at harvard, there was a lawsuit that uncovered documents. coaches can put in a good word for you as well.
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admissions gets the final decision but rowing can give you a leg up. you are more likely to get in as a athletic recruit than as a legacy. you can get. that you just need something to get you in especially to the schools that have those teams. everyone needs a college degree to move on so the thinking goes. >> rowing has an advantage because you can start late. you have to be strong and get up early in the morning. if you have a child who is not going to get the softball scholarship, you can try them on rowing. the top business leaders also getting in on the action.
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you can see this all on the bloomberg. we are looking at march madness of course. here is the midwest. this is my bracket. the red indicates where i did not make a right next. let's look at the eastern conference where all the green is. >> i want to say the shout out to the head of american tv programming. rachel is killing it. >> that's really impressive. >> right now, you have famous people all taking part in this. at the proceeds are going to the charity of their choice.
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a lot of good work being done here. can follower, you these online and check out your own bracket. the latestck on business flash headlines. wework is getting resistance to further lending in europe. saypoke with creditors who they are reluctant to build up more exposure to a single company.
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>> another story we are watching is a new bloomberg series on generation z. talk about competition for college spots. the corporate set will focus on this group because it is distinctive. they were all born after the internet went mainstream. ages seven to 22. social media, they are all very familiar. like watching tv because they don't understand commercials. >> you have two of them at home.
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a focus is being on philanthropic. globally connected and environmentally aware. they bought products that are good for the world. i like this mission-based spending. they spend far more than let's look at the markets.
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