tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 6, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
guy: 30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, which is enjoying a holiday, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: london markets closed today. it is a national holiday. we also have a new royal baby. the chinese markets were down heavily overnight. european markets have furthered , and volume is very light in europe as a result of london being taken out of the picture. you worst performing sectors are those exposed to the china and trade story. chip stocks down, tech stocks down. vonnie: the shenzhen composite index is probably to market in china most full of those tech stocks. it was a 7.4% drop for that
index, a little smaller than the shanghai composite index, but nevertheless an important index. anadarko petroleum one of the companies hire today, up 3.6%. bid more cashto as opposed to stocks. we will see how it all plays out as soon as anadarko makes a decision. the $1s said it will pay billion breakup fee that chevron would take away. we'll see how that plays out. apple, this is the chip story down 2%. wewill have to wait until even have a negotiation this week, or if the chinese to send it come -- decide not to come. guy: bonds are higher, stocks are lower.
that seems to be the story around the world today following the president's tweets on china. to discuss what happens next, let's bring in john. shorey --d this craig this trade story go south? maybe there's a few bumps along the way. reporter: yes, it always looks to me as though a lot of things ,ere being taken for granted and the degree of risk has been underpriced to a degree that didn't make sense. the 100 an index of stocks, developed market stocks, that have the greatest exposure to china. if you look at the performance of that index, the way it surged ahead in the last few months made very little sense unless you were very confident that a deal was going to be made.
i think the extent of the thation today is a sign there is really a done deal that we will see as being very much in jeopardy. it was more a correction of correcting prior optimism. vonnie: how do you invest in china, at this time or any other time? is it getting any easier? if it drops like this on just a tweet or two, how do you do it? to be a veryinues retail driven index. you probably, if you're really interested in investing in china and want to sleep at night, you probably invest in the stoxx that msci has in that index. the people who sold stuff to china. those are the ones who might be
harmed by a trade deal, but that is the way to do it. the other point, obviously, is when it comes to the level of politics. it is not just the american causeents who ca the markets to go south very quickly. you've got to try to second-guess what the communist party is going to think is the best way to keep itself in power, as well get -- as well as go through all of the other checks for an investor. guy: two things have not stocks days. the past few one is the china story. the other is the market and the fed. many people have positioned that ,he fed would's going to cut but they have stayed consistent in that they are going to be
patient. where they out of whack? john: i certainly think they were. last week you see a steady cutting back in the chances of a , despite ais year number of events which you would argue might make a rate cut more possible. you saw average hourly earnings growth drop at the end of the last week, which should be one of the more important measures out there. i think there is just a classic case. the market probably did get oversold, and has now become overbought. the degree to which jay powell had to pivot, as it is now known, was very dramatic, akint was from a position
to what you could call a pause. an indefinite pause. that is very big. for some reason which i don't a cut iserstand, actually likely. there is really a clear case for that. you didn't get the clear guidance from the fed that that was what you should be looking for. vonnie: to kick off the week, we weted an update -- want an update from you on brexit. there are new clauses being written into the withdrawal agreement, and theresa may hopes they will be agreed upon.
clearly theresa may hopes that. the reason the parties think it makes sense for them to get some kind of soft brexit across the line, there's large numbers of people in the labour party who hink labour should be trying to stop brexit altogether. others think there should be a hard brexit. i suspect myself. -- i suspect myself that both parties may be misreading their membership somewhat. the other point, the last , thatn of the suggestions the u.k. would be any customs union with the eu until 2022, i'm not sure the rest of the eu is going to be happy about that. been a purely intramural british affair for many months now, but they do have to find something the europeans will agree to as well. vonnie: john, thank you.
you are a personal wikipedia page on these matters. [laughter] vonnie: john authers with us there. chat with bloomberg's jp morgan boss jamie dimon from jamie dimon -- from the jp morgan china summit in beijing. sending ae u.s. is carrier summit to the gulf in an unmistakable message that any attacks on u.s. interests will be met with unrelenting force. the trump administration plans to target a new sector of iran's economy with sanctions. michael cohen will begin serving a three year sentence for a number of crimes today. among them, campaign finance violations related to hush money payments on donald
trump's behalf. in the u.k., prime minister theresa may is hoping to break the deadlock that has paralyzed the country's split from the european union. her officials are drafting a new customs law that would guarantee there are no checks on goods crossing the border. may is trying to get the opposition labour party to sign onto that plan. there is a new member of britain's royal family. prince harry markle have welcomed their first child. it's a boy. the newborn is seventh in line to the british thrown. he is the first -- the british throne. he is the first interracial baby in the royal family's recent history. vonnie: thank you. let's get a check markets now. we are off our lows for the session. the nasdaq the worst performer at the moment.
she holdings, one of the largest conglomerates currently operating in 13 countries. it has had five listings in the u.s. in the last few years. i do want to ask you about the political climate at the moment we have president erdogan potentially calling another mayoral election, getting very involved in the minute politics of turkey. there is an unease across the world about turkey. guest: it's understandable. you want to get over this election as soon as possible so the economy can go into the and put it back on track. how often do you hear from the turkish administration? baris: i talked to the president about a week ago. we had a dialogue. some of the opportunities of the
economy, he has been very open with us, in addition to his ministers. guy: given that conversation, do you have a clear idea of what economic policy is going to look like once the election issues are put behind us? we still don't know what the outcome of these elections are. baris: i think destabilization and rebound is going to continue. think there has been a tight monetary policy. they are trying to anchor inflation expectations at the lower level to go into a sustainable growth mold. turkey isf the issues certainly facing at the moment is inflation. producer price inflation is running close to 30%.
consumer price inflation is running at close to 20%. when i apply that to your businesses, did that mean that the costs within the business faster than you are able to charge when it comes to your customers? the last quarter, input costs started coming down. with better demand, there is better pricing in the market now . vonnie: there were reports that because the lira we can so much, the citra banks hedge step been. how do you deal -- the central banks had to step in. how do you deal with the lira and monetary policy in turkey? aris: first there is a deferral on the consumer side. then investors start referring
their investment decisions. after that, there are some collection periods in the market. if it stabilizes, we go back into the normalization period in emerging markets, you are used to working with volatility not only leveraging your risks effectively. we have been lowering our leverage every year with sizable free cash generation. do you plan on more expansion -- vonnie: do you plan on more expansion in the u.s.? baris: yes. we would like to grow more in this space. that,s basically the area
if it into's into our industrial they will be opening a new office. is one of the attractions of these businesses that they earn in dollars? i am wondering how you view the world from a currency hedge point of view. buying businesses in the states and in europe would certainly help that. have: sure, but we selected four areas of growth. one was composite. [indiscernible]
one is on our people, and the last one is we noble energy and grids -- is renewable energy and grids. all of this, we have pricing power. we have a key position. and some of those we are global leaders. guy: do you worry that at some point, turkish companies may have restrictions placed on them as a result of u.s. sanctions? i was still wondering what is going to happen with the missile systems. it is possible the u.s. would impose sanctions as a result. is that something that comes to mind when you think of your plans going forward? baris: with the trade issues with the u.s. and china, i think this is the world we have to deal with. on the other hand, turkey is so integrated to the european trade zone, i think it is very unlikely. some of these issues can be dealt with much easier.
i heard president trump is going to be in turkey sometime mid summer, so i look forward to his visit and some compromise. vonnie: are thinks to you, baris sabanci holding cfo, based in turkey. markets.e a look at his avid give doolittle. abigail: the exit -- here's abigail doolittle. abigail: the s&p on the nasdaq both down about 9/10 of 1%. the stoxx 600 down 1%. china down 5.6%, the worst day since 2016. interestingly, there's not a huge haven bid. the two day chart of the 10 year yield, and last friday we had that strong jobs report, we actually had a rally for bonds. that was an early's out -- an early signal of the volatility.
a bit of a rally for bonds, but not truly fearful. as for some of those technology laggards having to do with the possibility of an escalated with war, looking at apple -- the possibility of an escalated trade war, take a look at a year to date chart. we had aspects of the risks trade selling off. if we look at the bloomberg chart in the terminal, we see that the stocks, china and oil all selling off. oil up more than 40% on the year. composite now down -- up, i should say, less than 20% on the year. the question, the s&p 500 about flat. are other aspects of the risks trade setting off more volatility to the downside for
guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." a former banker with goldman sachs has been extradited to the united states. we are joined by bloomberg's banking reporter. what is the outlook for him? reporter: it is the latest twist in this case. he had been arrested in malaysia, but now he is coming to the u.s. this gives the doj a lot of firepower.
they've already got another former goldman's banker to plead guilty. we still have to figure out what were the terms of the extradition, is the going to be bail or not, will they get him to plead guilty. but the bottom line is this is good for the doj, not so good for goldman-s. guy: what does goldman sachs need to do to get past this? reporter: they've been continually mentioning they want to get this behind them soon as possible, but this all goes back to about $6 billion they raised in investment funds and made boatloads of money out of it. thenwas allegedly spectacularly looted, so you have investigation across multiple countries, to figure out goldman's involvement in this. vonnie: david solomon was asked on the call if the $1 billion they set aside to settle these charges would be enough. some are saying it might be as
much as $7 billion. i guess it is going to be play out over the next several months, but how much is goldman at risk in the u.s. and abroad? malaysia is taking response ability for this, too, and looking into all sorts of individuals and goldman sachs. reporter: they are battling this on multiple fronts across multiple nations. it is clear they have a rainy day fund. we just don't know how much it is going to rain. we don't know what they will get from roger and whether that will change the outlook at all. doj prosecutors have been pushing for a guilty plea. that shouldn't come as a surprise because they are prosecuting this case, and what the most severe punishment possible. we don't know how the top brass will react come about that it's going to pan out over the rest of the year, possibly. over moneys. handed
the other day. can i connect the dots on this? reporter: they have been trying to recover some of the money that was stolen, and even the malaysian attorney general when he announced the news engined that this is a sign of great cooperation between the -- the news mentioned that this is a sign of great cooperation between the countries. at this stage, it looks like every individual prosecutor is moving on their and tracks. vonnie: all right. we will continue to follow that story. guy: let's take a look at where european markets are trading right now. it is a very light volume day. london is out. the main markets are down on china. this is bloomberg. ♪
quite like volumes. a bigger feature of the landscape is china related trade. most of the main markets outside london trading down. down0, dax, zurich, all 1%. want to talk more about the cac 40 in the french market because i think it is instructive. on a percentage basis, stocks taking the shine off the market. once you dig into the point story, it is stocks like lvmh that took the biggest number of points off the cac 40. that is a china related story. the luxury story has been under pressure. the other stock trading lower in the french market was total. we are watching the global demand story, the second reason is total is now involved in the anadarko story by occidental doing a deal with total saying it will sell off its africa
unit, specifically its mozambique. that is a factor why total would be under pressure. in the dax, chip stocks going down as the auto sector has been under pressure. you can see what is been going down in more detail, you can do that with the grr function. that is where the safety has been. those sectors are in negative territory. the bottom of the market looks like this. the auto sector the biggest losing sector. i would have thought of london was open you would have had the mining stocks under pressure as well on this china risk. down 2.21%. the other thing is that london is out. i will show you the effect that has had. this is the stoxx 600. effectively, we have stripped out the london story. that is the volume today and these are the averages.
the blue line is the 30 day average. we are well below the normal volumes we will see. london will be back in play tomorrow and having to play catch-up. that is look at the european close. vonnie: the president's tweets sent u.s. markets into a tailspin. we are off our lows. the s&p 500 down .8%. the 10 year yield 2.49%. we are back where we were before the payrolls number and the fed comments last week. the dollar index holding around the 97.58 mark. even though we have a little bit of trepidation about foreign policy in the united states and what is been happening of glass 24 hours, we are seeing wti trade lower at $61.79. let's take a look at global macro movers. we had a major session overnight in china. the see was down 5.8%. weaker .6%. that would be the offshore and
onshore weaker and it affected surrounding currencies as well. markets's turn on the conversations with bloomberg's mike reagan. in some ways we were set up for volatility. going down and out a down, volatility has been crushed. if there was going to be a catalyst, it would probably have been china. mike: what is interesting is if you look at the vix futures the spot index is up quite a bit and the near-term futures are up, but the further we go out the curve the smaller the gains are. i was talking to michael purves, said it makesd he it look like traders are interpreting this as a an 11thrm phenomenon, hour negotiating ploy by
president trump before the chinese trade negotiate -- trade delegation comes to united states. that is the interpretation. hard to know if it is the right interpretation. that looks to be what volatility traders are pricing in at the moment. a short-term rising volatility. short -- not enough for them to cover those record short positions in fixed futures. -- in vix futures. vonnie: equity -- were they call the wrong foot? is there risk they will be? -- today isis clear calling that into considerable question. without seeing those futures explode higher, people do not seem to be aggressively covering the shorts. it helps that it is early in the month before they have to roll into the next month contract. there is some breathing room to wait and let this play out and
see if it is just game theory by president trump, some last-minute scare tactics in these negotiations. if seems like it will last a while, these tensions will continue through the week, that he would see those futures explode higher. guy: let's walk our way through this week and how it will work. friday is quite a big deadline. how you position yourself around this? one week volatility trade? what are people trying to do as the week progresses to capture some of the risk. this is likely to be a tail risk story but that risk is getting bigger and bigger. michael: absolutely. what everyone has their eye on is what the chinese delegation will do. if they come to the united states and sit down at the table , that will allow people to exhale. people are waiting to see if they pull the plug on that trip and do not come.
if that happens, things worsen from here and this turns into a more serious situation and not a one or two day type of situation. vonnie: volatility is good for traders. why aren't we celebrating this? michael: you look at the setup of the market coming in. the s&p update on into this week. it is natural to say risk off the table. i think people at this point in time, we are only a few hours into the session, people have their fingers crossed and hope it is just a negotiating tactic and not a worsening of the trade tensions going forward. vonnie: michael regan, thank you. following -- where anadarko's board of directors seems likely to accept occidental's sweetened takeover bid.
anadarko shares outperforming the s&p energy index. let's bring in bloomberg simon casey. if itt point will we know is decided that this was as good or better than chevron's? simon: it could be as early as today. likelyys thought it was that occidental is going to .revail initially there per share offer of $76 a share is higher than chevron's offer. we had a deal that occidental has agreed with total in france so that post-merger, occidental would get rid of assets quickly. secondly, they put forward to anadarko revised terms. more cash on the table.
78% cash were previously it was 50/50 cash-stock split. anadarko is leading the s&p 500 higher. the general view is this will happen now. the question is once the announcement comes out, anadarko will say we are embracing this offer, chevron has four days to come back with a revised offer. they could do that or they could simply walk. they will pocket a $1 million fee if they decide walk away from the faith. guy: say the ceo decides to walk away. are there other things on the roster that could be taken down at this point by chevron? this is a land grab in the permian. what else is on deck? simon: there are several companies. other companies that have been speculated about include pioneer , these areparsley
less well-known than anadarko, they are certainly smaller. , just as they could buy anadarko easily. there are other alternatives. regardless of what happens with anadarko, we could be seeing a wave of permian m&a anyway. what is been going on the last few weeks, this pursuit of anadarko has forced a lot of people to reassess what is going on in the permian. a lot of investors have been pretty active in the oil and gas arestry and some of those beginning to openly agitate for consolidation among these mid tier players. vonnie: the way occidental has gone out of this is to eliminate some of the risk. why did it take chevron's bid
for all of this to happen if occidental was so obsessed with the deal? -- it turnsental out occidental was involved with making overtures to anadarko as fallback -- as far back as december early 2017. they have made various suggestions. all of which have been rebuffed. ,e do not know the full details but there is tension in the anadarko board. there were remarks about what the occidental management sees as a lack of motivation to get things done even though they have the superior offer. it is clear anadarko is more comfortable with chevron. chevron is a much bigger company. perhaps it is because chevron might leave them or to their own devices post merger rather than make deep cost cuts.
there is a great deal of tension. hard,ntal has been trying they've been flying around all over the place last couple of weeks. they went to omaha to visit warren buffett. they went to paris last week to get this total deal done. they have been very active. vonnie: who doesn't love a good board room story? our thanks to simon casey for following this story. let's check in on bloomberg first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: u.s.-china trade talks appear to be on life support after president trump unexpectedly set a new deadline. he warned that on friday, tariffs on $200 billion of chinese goods would rise from 10% to 25%. terex will also be imposed on billions more in products. the president is unhappy with the pace of trade talks. china says the delegation is still coming to the u.s. for negotiations, but no word on when that will happen. israel and gaza strip militants have reached a truce among their
most intense fighting in five years. 27 palestinians and four israelis were killed. hamas fired hundreds of rockets into israel. israel responded with airstrikes. , a leader the prime minister's ruling party said it will need the support of allies to form the next government. india is in the midst of a marathon election campaign. bloomberg news editor-in-chief spoke to the party general secretary. the -- security and my -- we are confident of securing the majority. modi'sy: he says that if party stays in power, they will pursue economic policies. the owner of the horse that finished the kentucky derby in
first says they will -- maximum security should be declared the rightful winner. -- maximum security will not air in the preakness stakes. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much. we are preparing for the full announcement of the new royal being born. this happened at buckingham palace. there is. a piece of footage will be placed outside and a notice will be placed on the lectern. ,hat will happen very shortly following the birth of meghan markle and prince harry's baby. seventh in line to the throne. i bring this up because you wonder whether or not this will happen effect on the brexit story.
guy: from london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. guy: the easel has been set up outside buckingham palace. the news of the royal baby is likely to dominate the news cycle for the next few hours. it looks like the foot men have just delivered the details. we will zoom in and hopefully get those details delivered to us. the baby was born at 5:26 this morning.
the duchess of sussex gives birth to a baby boy. i bring this up, not because it is something that will be fascinating for the u.k. and the world. i bring this up because it could give theresa may a little bit of political cover over the next few hours. not much, but a little bit in terms of what is about to happen. talks between the labour party and the conservative party ongoing behind closed doors. tomorrow we will get more details. the queen in the royal family delighted to announce the birth of the royal baby. let's bring in our senior executive editor to give us an idea of what is going on. i'm slightly joking about this, but it all serious a good provider little bit of political cover for theresa may. what will happen of the next 24 hours, apart for the fact that britain will be baby of assessed? -- baby obsessed? >> a bit of cover will they
continue the talks between the labour party and conservatives. markets take a negative view of those talks. not talking about any deal struck between the government, just the royal baby. the reality is those talks are difficult. we had john mcdonald on the bbc yesterday pouring cold water on the idea of a deal. he does not trust the prime minister anymore, saying she is acting in bad faith. they're are supposed to be coming to an agreement tomorrow. that is the next deadline. is it going to happen? if not, than the prime minister says she will go back to parliament again and run a series of votes to try to work out -- we've been there before. parliament has not been able to decide on anything apart from blocking no deal. meanwhile, in the background we have the leadership rumblings around theresa may. that will only intensify. vonnie: how are these new
clauses written into the withdrawal agreement, which have not been agreed upon, how are they different from anything proposed in the past on a customs union? david: the main thing is about rewriting the commitment to the future relationship and putting into that a commitment to be part of a customs union. this phrase, customs union, as little bit toxic so they will come up with a new name to gloss over that arrangement. it means britain tied into the eu customs regime. the reports are that what theresa may is proposing is they will commit to that until the next election in 2022. the labour party says that is not good enough because it will just be unwound by a future tory government. what we want is a commitment to be part of the customs arrangement in perpetuity. still a big golf between both sides, even on the wording of
what will go into the document. vonnie: bloomberg senior executive editor david merritt. thank you. time for our stock of the hour. apple is feeling the heat of trumps terror threats. shares fell as much as 3.9% declining with the broader tech sector. kailey leinz is here with more. somey: they have recovered of the losses but they are stuck in this tariff crossfire, partially because of the supply chain issue and also because china represents a significant portion of apple's revenue. in the second quarter they reported about 18% of their overall revenue share. in that second quarter they be expectations, but a lot of the positivity was on the company's commentary about a better iphone picture in china and demand picking up. the question now becomes does potential tariff escalation of the trade war between the u.s. and china trade that picture. analysts at link equity ,trategies pose that question
saying could be imploding trajectory turned back around and is that going to change the picture for june? it is definitely a question. chipmakers across the border down today to the tune of 3% or more because they have significant chinese exposure. guy: how much is the spotify story to do with what is going on? the european regulus -- the european regulatory story? kailey: spotify claiming antitrust. the financial times did report the eu competition commissioner may be groping that. that.be probing an analysts said it was too early to make that call. vonnie: kailey leinz with the stock of the hour. coming up, it is our global battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: it is time for our global battle the charts. you can see them on the bloomberg at gtv . michael mckee is with us in the studio. michael: two big stories. nothing on the royal baby, but we can talk about what is happening in terms of trade wars. research has shown that trade wars are costing the u.s. consumer $1.4 billion per month. u.s. consumers are paying it all, never mind what the president says. it is coming out of your pocket. these are things that are made out of steel. the white line is steel mill products. the blue line is nuts and bolts. remember when the president would tariffs on laundry machines, washing machines, that is the yellow line. but -- rise in price when they raise the price on
washing machines, they also raise the price on dryers to go along with it. vonnie: this is where i disagree with that. that was about the royal baby. washers, laundry equipment. michael: they will be doing a lot of laundry at the palace. vonnie: guy, top that. suddenly placing large orders for the washing machines and dryers. dryers are critical. it does rain and the u.k.. i'm going to stay with the china theme and talk about the chinese market. this is the shanghai. we have been hearing about its rise. the rollover significant. that is going to be problematic. it was an area of support for the markets at the beginning of the year. the market kept bouncing off of that and came up again. lower through that level and have two things we need to deal with. in order to get back up through the 3000 level we have to fill a
gap, and that we have the psychological level of the 3000. that can be difficult for the chinese markets. i'm not saying it cannot be done. the chinese authorities have been keen to make the margin story work, but that provides a technical story they'll be harder for chinese equity markets to beat. vonnie: excellent. they are both about china. i find myself torn. i'm going to reward a tie. you both win battle of the charts today. coming up, balance of power with david westin. guests include democratic presidential candidate john delaney. that is next on bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. ♪
meets the world of business. on the brief today, shawn donnan on the uncertain path for u.s. china trade negotiation. the united states raising the stakes in iran and lauren davidson on the quest to get president trump's tax returns. , you've been following the negotiations between president trump in china closely. were you as surprised as the rest of the world? shawn: global markets were surprised. we always knew there would be a rough ride into the final stages of the negotiations. when donald trump threatened to impose further tariffs on china, was it all just a negotiating tactic and will that tactic yield a deal or will it backfire on the president or take us into a summer of potential turmoil? david: even as we expected that delegation from china, we will come back to the chinese response in a moment. now we go to