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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  May 6, 2019 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT

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should not be elevated. caroline: we are 30 seconds to the market close and off by 0.4%. did not manage to completely erase the most of the sectors are in the red. health care is one of the ones in the green. i think most people, if they had looked at the future last night or this morning, would be pretty impressed by the resilience. if you look at the nine sector groups, five of them finished higher. materials, technology. health care, energy, consumer staples all finishing green. says theyoccidental have delivered a revised proposal to buy anadarko. meanwhile, let's dive deeper
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into the action without a reporter. ongail: the effect of china the global market china now in a correction from its april levels. this goes back to the s&p 500's last all-time high last year. in blue, the emerging markets. in white, the shanghai composite. china is leading the way, up almost 35% on the year. most recently, that correction nose diving. the question, whether it will play into the s&p 500 which right now is resilient. -- best case scenario, looks like there will be a flattening period. worst case, the nosedive could suggest a pullback could be ahead. >> am taking a look at volatility. he maynt trump suggested
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be reigniting the trade war after those few tweets over the weekend. shorting volatility over the last few weeks or so. .he blue line there is the vix the white bars are showing net shorts. we are looking at the largest net short on record. it could be good news for equity traders. , the pastast year eight times the vix has moved at least three points on the day, it has led to above average performance. periodt time in that occurred five days after one of those spikes. romaine: let's look at a company that makes software developer tools. shares up 6%. this was the end of that 25 day quiet period. the banks finally got a chance to weigh in. as expected, most of the
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research was positive. the companyr saying has strong new customer growth. piper jaffray actually saying that this company could be an acquisition target for companies like microsoft, alphabet, or cisco. a neutral rating, saying that a lot of the upside is already priced into the stock. the shares already more than doubled since the ipo price back on april 10, making it one of the sixth or seventh best-performing ipo's so far this year. still with us, patrick from credit suisse and bloomberg's sarah ponczek. basis, a pure valuation we have seen markets overall from the bottom at the end of last year. is that cause for concern? are they stretched? patrick: we think the market is
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undervalued. a lot of times, people look at pe as a way to gauge the value of the market. investors are trying to understand how much cash they are generating, how much they can return to the individual shareholder. pe does not accurately capture it. if you look at an alternative metric like price per cash flow, they are under the long-term historical averages. what happens if the valuation of the dollar continues to strengthen? patrick: the dollar is a very interesting dynamic. higher dollar is a slight headwind for earnings but it is positive for multiples. money tends to flow into the united states as the dollar strengthens. it goes into large-cap companies. what we typically see is, in particular, via -- valuations move higher as the dollar
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strengthens. caroline: a company that, after its ipo, finally getting some analysts calling out on. the resiliency of the recent ipo's today. we saw beyond meat, pinterest --o rally >> the risk come back onto the table. you may see some of those ipo's start to take off. so yes, that could potentially bode well for uber. everyone has been comparing lift ft.uber and uber to ly explained it as a wait and see approach. right now, investors are holding off on lyft, potentially waiting to see how uber does.
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it is difficult to take a name like lyft and uber, and compare them to the rest of the market. joe: lyft expected tomorrow. the tradeesides question, one other important development, last week, chair powell maybe just sounding a tad more hawkish than people had expected, and that led to some selling. how much does that stance matter when you look at, say, a decline today may be mostly due to trade. is there still a little bit of an overhang from that that may be the fed won't be quite as accommodating as a week ago at this time? think what is important is the fact that the fed has already taken that dovish pivot. nevertheless, i think it is important to put that into context and that is what the market does. i think it is important that we
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gauge the fact that it is that -- that it is either neutral and lower or neutral and higher. scarlet: will it be perceived as good news? it would push the fed in the direction of cutting. patrick: i think data exists in a band in which people try to gauge whether it is too hot or too cold. right now, an environment where the temperatures is just right. >> it is called goldilocks. scarlet: patrick, thank you so much. it for the closing bell and for me. romaine bostick is stepping in for "what'd you miss?" the team will focus on the aftermath of trump's latest trade threats. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. i'm caroline hyde. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. caroline: here's a snapshot of how u.s. stocks managed to raise some of their losses today. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss"? caroline: president trump shatters the historic calm in global markets and plunges the u.s. and global economy back into uncertainty. trade -- the new trade tensions. andey, south africa, central bank decisions. tech also getting caught in the crossfire. apple sliding today. they may get some support as the tech giant plans to release a slew of new apps, features, and
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tools next month. romaine: u.s. stocks marching back from that selloff we had earlier in the day with all the major indexes ending trading just slightly in the red. the initial losses coming after trump reignited his tariffs threats with china. someone whod by served as the secretary of commerce for trade under president obama, and now he is the founder and managing partner of bridge park advisors. the tweet around the world that everyone was pointing to. the market seemed to sort of eventually take it in stride. is there a real impact market-wise or financial-wise with regards to if we do get to 25%? >> i think after people got over the excitement -- don't forget, we were positioned after the last visit that secretary mnuchin had in china where he said we are in the final laps of
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getting to a trade deal. i think the market was expecting something to be announced in the very near term. i think the president's tweet sent people atwitter, pun inten ded. i think the market has concluded that it is much more likely that we get to a deal and we get to a deal in the near future. this was just a trumpian heression in the way communicates, and i think he thought it would be incrementally helpful as a negotiating tactic. still kind of ambiguous how the chinese side is going to respond. there was an initial report that said they would not show up in d.c. this week, then some indications that they will, then that they were never actually going to cancel. do you think there's a good chance they will kind of come to the same conclusion you did? it is a tweet, whatever, let's just continue on the path. seasoned,e mature,
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professional negotiators. i'm not surprised at all that they didn't cancel. closest advisor, in many respects, is leading the charge. i think this is part and parcel to potentially getting to a deal. i think the deal we are going to see has to be one where both sides can claim victory. i think that is where we are going. caroline: does this sort of ?osturing help or hinder does it manage to walk the chinese back a little bit? >> who knows how effective ultimately all of this will be. you never know in the context of any negotiation what one particular tactic ultimately might have led to more or. i do think the chinese are taking all this stuff with a grain of salt at this point, and they understand now who they are
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negotiating with, and they are trying to get to a deal so they can, as i said earlier, claim victory around it. i think the trumpet ministration are doing the same. i think we will have to see what that deal actually encapsulates. is it going to be just purchasing more u.s. goods, lng, financialm, assets, or is it going to fundamentally get to some of the big pillars that the administration and business community is rightly focused on? cyber theft, counterfeiting, and state support of chinese businesses. romaine: how reporting seemed to suggest that one of the reasons why the trumpet ministration did what it did was that china seemed to back away from this idea of changing their laws. if they don't change their laws, are those even possible? >> those are some of the things. the other is specifically what
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happens to the tariffs if we reach a deal or not, if they are withdrawn or not, and how they are potentially snapped back if the chinese don't do all of the things they would potentially agree to in the context of a negotiation. there are some industries where there are still some open items. i think it is unclear exactly what is going on in the negotiations other than to say, i do believe we are getting close to the endgame here. joe: do you think the administration once a deal for a deal's sake? it seems like the record is mixed. on nafta, i don't think the new deal is all that different from the old one. on the other hand, whether it is debating health care, taxes, trump is shown in -- trump has shown the willingness to not just take a deal for the appearance of a deal.
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say, for sure, he wants to for political reasons and actually economic reasons, to get to a deal. no deal was ever going to be a panacea to address all of the issues we have in terms of our economic and commercial relationship with china and that is fundamentally because they are not a market economy. having an economy of that size and an economy of our size to effectively interact with each other is going to be a long haul and we should expect, frankly, a lot of this to continue over the foreseeable future. joe: former undersecretary of commerce for international trade under president obama, thank you very much. romaine: we just want to recap some earnings. aig out with their earnings. coming in at $1.58 per share. we should point out that the return on equity on an adjusted basis coming in at 11.6%. joe: coming up, warren buffett himself in the hot seat as
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investors question his choices .n amazon all the details, next. as bloomberg. ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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joe: buffet watchers converging on omaha over the weekend for berkshire hathaway's meeting. warren buffett found himself in an unusual position, answering questions about whether a different approach is needed after bets on amazon and kraft heinz. the author who just got back from omaha. how many years have you been going? >> 25. joe: we got some news at the end
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of last week about amazon being a holding. i guess it was one of the deputies who bought it. does this represent some sort of drift from the brookshire style of investing, are -- or are we just in a world where you could plausibly say that their mode or brand could plausibly fit in as a classic brookshire investment? >> it is now a 20-year-old company. still doing interesting things and jeff bezos is an interesting guy, but the track record is clear. they could probably pattern those cash flows with a reasonable degree of certainty. you are right, it is one of the deputies. i think it is probably something warren still wants to stay away from but the rest of them could probably think about it and do a reasonably good job. caroline: it has been fits and starts. yes, they got in with apple.
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they seemed seemingly upset they never got in bed with alphabet and google. but he walked away from oracle saying he didn't really understand the business model. >> they understand his business model, that he sticks with what he knows. he's done very well with that for 54 years. there's occasional agitation about whether you missed the next big thing. but he has said, there will be a next big thing, and we will probably miss it. romaine: are they also contend with the potential transition that is obviously inevitably going to take place with charlie and warren buffett, given their ages? >> that is the million-dollar question that has been on their minds for decades. i tried to address the question five years ago in a book about the subject and i took the position that the benches so deep among the managers, the skill set is so wide-ranging, that we don't really have a lot
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to worry about. i think that convinced about half of the shareholder population but the other half is uncertain. i think it will be a little different when he's no longer at the helm, but i think they have done the best possible job of creating a succession plan or a company that will last indefinitely. anyone: i don't think doubts the skill level, but they don't necessarily have the same cult of personality and charisma that buffett brings to the table. lawrence: it happened over time. greg will need a bit of a runway to develop those wings. every time i talked to greg, at some point in the conversation, i think i'm talking to warren. he is lately assuming greater responsibility. joe: this is a big weekend in sales for some of the berkshire companies, like the furniture company. will it still be a big thing where tons of people show up in omaha once a year to hear from
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someone else who is not warren? lawrence: the book that you guys put up there demonstrates that people go to the meeting mainly for each other. draw, the activities surrounding the meeting that go through sunday. tens of thousands will still come for those reasons. you may get a cut. as you said this weekend, it is not inevitable. greg will have to show that he can continue to allocate capital and so on, and if he can't do that, we will stop going and they will break up the company. but i think he has got the chops and will attract whatever he needs in order to sustain the business. caroline: those wanting to spend time with each other, and for the queue and day, are they &a,ried about -- for the q are they worried about the cash piling up and what is going to be done for? lawrence: yes.
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he has said he's waiting for a big elephant. someone said, if you had invested a big part of that in an index fund 10 years ago, you would have made $30 billion for the stockholders. warren said, i won't quarrel with your numbers, you are probably right, but we need to keep the powder dry for the big elephant or the big crash opportunity. this has been, i think, his greatest strength. when people are agitating for him to do something, he sits still. there has always been pressure, but he's been able to withstand it. challengesbiggest they face is resisting some of those pressures when sitting tight might be best. romaine: what do you make of some of the criticism with the relationship between berkshire and 3g and the way some of those deals have been pulled off? lawrence: berkshire's long-term capital. 3g is short-term capital. to mix those in an acquisition
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is extremely difficult. you are seeing that in kraft heinz. what 3g did was a little shorter cited. think the ceo has acknowledged as much. i think that is the biggest difficulty. the holders for years have pressed more on that. answer, i trust these guys, i've known them for years. the other than getting to q&a, what was your favorite thing about the weekend? lawrence: i almost never learn something entirely new, but i get refreshed every time. for most of us veterans, it is more like going to church then university. we may not learn something new but we reaffirm a lot of beliefs. caroline: lawrence cunningham, law professor at george washington university. a check on the latest headlines. bloomberg has learned that anadarko's board has decided to
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make a bid for chevron. the company says that if it does by anadarko, it would sell off a chunk of anadarko assets in africa. lyft, a crucial week. drivers are threatening a massive strike in the next few days. highlighting the regulatory concerns of the business model. the company reports orderly results tomorrow. asset the world's largest managers will begin buying and selling bitcoin. bloomberg has learned that, within a few weeks, fidelity investments will begin offering trading in cryptocurrency to institutional investors. that is your business flash update. romaine: coming up, how apple keeps walking a fine line between moving outside app developers and competing with them. what we can expect from the annual software conference. we will have a preview, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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trump's former attorney michael cohen has arrived at a prison 75 miles northwest of new york city to begin serving a three year sentence. before leaving his manhattan apartment today, cohen told reporters there is still much to be told. he added that he looks forward to the day when "i can share the truth." he was convicted of crimes related to campaign-finance violations are laid to hush money payments made on esther trump's behalf. russian foreign minister sergei lavrov is describing his meeting
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with secretary of state mike pompeo today as constructive. lavrov told reporters, "we have had a good and constructive conversation. we have considered a number of regional situations on the agenda and international relations in general, and discussed matters concerning strategic stability. lavrov continued again, "i am of the view that we have made a step forward to follow up the president putin and president trump had on the phone days ago." greatest barriers to minority voting in 2020. blackear's state of america report focuses on voting rights. national urban league president and ceo is calling attention to voter suppression and interference from foreign governments. >> over the last 10 years, the for africane
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americans has been under assault. intentional, deliberate, orchestrated, diabolical, and clever. he added, "this is not a partisan issue. this is an issue of mission and morality." benjaminrime minister netanyahu said today that a cease-fire deal reached between israel and hamas was not the end of the campaign after days of the deadliest fighting between 2014's war.s since he made his comments after visiting hospitalized troops. the escalation killed 25 on the gaza side, both militants and civilians, while on the israeli side, four civilians were killed by incoming fire.
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the israeli military lifted restrictions on residents in the south today. the prime minister said he had instructed members to be prepared going forward and to keep the tanks and artillery forces around the gaza strip. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. apple is planning to unleash a slew of new apps, features, and development tools at its annual software conference next month. shares fell after sunday's tweet from president trump appeared to escalate a trade standoff between the u.s. and china. on a welcome note, bloomberg's mark gurman. what is going to be the big idea? what is the overall goal that apple will be trying to present? mark: as it does every year at
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these wwdc conferences, as they are called, they want to come out with new apps, features, and tools for consumers that will keep them locked into the ecosystem, keep them buying the next iphones, essentially even giving a picture of what will come on the next iphones, but also give developers new features and tools for them to continue to write new apps. one issue that we have heard from some of your reporting as well as other bloomberg reporting is that there has been conflict or competition between the apps that apple is building for itself and some of the third-party apps. mark: this is something that has been happening since the beginning. apple is the operating system maker as well as the provider of the app store. i particularly don't think it is an issue. apple creates these tools that enable so many people, the
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entire app economy. there are people making tons of money and releasing applications and they wouldn't have that opportunity if apple wasn't building the tools to enable them. at the same time, there are developers like spotify and others that are not happy. they become these big businesses. caroline: talk about some of the real iterations they are making, in particular what caught my attention was the fact that they are going to make the apple watch more of a standalone product to a certain extent. do you always need it tied to the phone? mark: the original vision for the apple watch is to create a device that is completely independent from the phone. apple imagined being able to go into an apple store, hook the watch up to a plan with its own phone number and data plan, and never have to attach it to an iphone. that would make it compatible with people who don't have iphones. thisn't anticipate that
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year. they're going to break away more from the iphone, new apps like voice memos, a calculator, a reading app for listening. also the app store being built into the watch, so you don't need a phone to install apps. strategically,at a big priority for apple is boosting its services revenue that came up during the earnings. not long ago, they had that big streaming event. willie software update we see tomorrow somehow facilitate -- or how will they facilitate that broader business call? the broader business goal is to continue to have developers writing apps. the more developers that are part of the ecosystem, the more apps, the more money they will make from services. none of the individual features that are coming that will be released in the september, october timeframe will really be on a recurring revenue basis.
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one will be this apple music app coming to the mac that might inspire more installations. right now it is in itunes. caroline: always with the breaking news apple, we thank you. great scoop as always, well ahead. coming up president trump complicates an already tough week for forex and emerging markets traders. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: a pair of the u.s. president's tweets rocking u.s. stocks and markets. central banks announced policy decisions. let's talk about the latest news hitting markets in china,
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turkey, around the world. do you think it will be deemed an overreaction, particularly given the media blackout in china? especially given that they were just coming back from a labor day holiday. they were offer about three days, then they came back. the big news we saw was president trump threatening more tariffs. we saw this huge reaction, especially on the offshore yuan, which has fell the most since the devaluation in 2015. the yuan continues to plunge against the dollar but also the shanghai compile it -- shanghai composite falling. an overreaction, perhaps. but also because there was so much trade optimism already baked into the markets. joe: what were the
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reverberations from the yuan move and the mood overall across the landscape today? >> you definitely saw the yuan leading the charge in terms of em weakness across the board. the yuan actually wasn't the weakest em currency today. across the world, not just em. that is really as we see this political uncertainty come back. the big news today was that turkey ordered a rerun of the istanbul mayor election, the vote that erdogan's party narrowly lost. just a reminder for em investors that it is a wild ride in turkey. romaine: you get the rand, the lira, the won. the argentine peso, is that collapsing as well? katherine: compared to the other ones, it is holding up right now.
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it is really the rand and the lira. caroline: to a certain extent, we are talking about -- interesting that we bring up the rand because of the political risks. wednesday is the south african election. what about the central bank risk we will see in the emerging markets? out exporttarted rates for china out on wednesday. there are so many more people saying that could potentially be a cut, or at least they will cut toward the year end because we are seeing the economy decelerating. zealand, asia, new also a decision. they are expected to cut. the guidance last time around was that the move would be downwards. the rest of the week we have malaysia, thailand. going back to china for a
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second, are they going to show up? it still seems kind of ambiguous, what the chinese response to the tweets will be? shery: i'm kind of waiting to see what the official reaction will be. the foreign affairs ministry saying that they will still come but when they come is in flux at the moment. given how strongly president trump has come out with these tweets saying tariffs are going to rise on friday, i'm not quite sure there is a way out for the chinese where they can negotiate but also save face, which is very important. upaine: we had that chart showing the decline we saw in the won and also the rebound. in options markets, a lot of traders really trying to hedge their bets and protect against further downside. katherine: you saw short-term risk reversals. one week, one month.
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protecting themselves against further downside. we are probably going to see a lot more headlines. as we see the safe haven move, japanese markets come back online today after their longest holiday since world war ii. we are going to see how they react. caroline: see how a bit of liquidity helps the situation. anchor for asia head but katherine, thank you as well. a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. restating earnings between 2016, 2017, and 2018. evidence of misconduct in procurement that raise the costs
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of goods sold. the impact is expected to be less than 2% in each year. a team of investors and bank of america wealth and visors is breaking away. they oversee $450 million. it will team up with dynasty financial partners. it will help with the investment platform. harvard's $39 billion endowment is doubling down on an investment. over the last two years, the largest fund in higher education has almost doubled its investment in hedge funds to $13 billion. making a contrarian bet. other institutions have been bailing out on hedge funds. ,nterestingly, on that note yes, it is contrarian. it is not contrarian to him though. he is maybe similar hedge fund bets at columbia, at penn. romaine: was in the harvard
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endowment sort of a hedge fund in and of itself? joe: and he got rid of some of internal hedge fund like trading operations. --hird of the endowment harvard hedge funds comprised a third of the endowment. yellen princeton, just 25%. there you go. romaine: we should point out that our story also points out that it had one of the worst average annual returns over the last decade among the ivy league's. i guess if you went to columbia, princeton, or yale, you finally have something to kind of hold over them. some quick breaking news here on aig. they did reduce earnings early. they did reduce expectations. the shares topping $50. that is the highest price since october. joe: coming up, outside of
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trump's this weekend, the winner of the kentucky derby was one of the most talked about events. actually, he tweeted about that, too. this is bloomberg. ♪
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atoline: time for a look what stories are trending. the trump administration and how it may redefine the national poverty threshold, putting americans living on the margins at risk of -- the possible move
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could include changing how inflation is calculated on the official poverty measure. bloomberg has a story on an unexpected cameo in last nights episode of game of thrones, a plastic lidded cup with what looked like a starbucks logo. the incident came after a wide array of on purpose product tie-ins. athletic shoes, scotch whiskey, to handbags. meanwhile, tictoc on twitter is reporting that prince harry announced that the duchess meghan of sussex has given birth to a baby boy. the child is seventh in line to the throne. prince harry says he is incredibly proud of his wife and they are still think about names. although stories on your terminal,, and of course tictoc on twitter. it made me chuckle because the daily express, the newspaper in the united kingdom, has put out
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that meghan markle prince harry had to choose an unusual name for the baby which unified the u.s. in u.k.. i rather like that one person said, name it vladimir. romaine: bookies are already taking bets on what the name will be. the top name, five to one odds, arthur. the others were philip, albert, james, alexander. not really thinking outside the box. those are all royal names, right? caroline: i'm not sure much affects the pound anymore. was the foul heard around the horse racing world. maximum security disqualified the kentucky derby for interfering with the path of other horses in the race. it was the first time that a winner had been disqualified for an ontrack issue. to discuss the controversial ruling, david papadopoulos, our in-house horse racing expert.
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the call, all the drama, i loved it. president trump tweeting, i'm not happy with the decision but according to you, clearly a violation. what did maximum security do that caused them to be disqualified? david: i understand the confusion, the anger. the rules are pretty straightforward. pathu do not maintain your and you start veering right or veering left, and you impede the progress of one of the other horses, forced them to alter course, lose momentum, and you cost them a chance to finish better, whether it was fifth, third, whatever, you need to be disqualified. was acond place finisher random beneficiary because he was unmolested by all that.
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i know that is unsatisfactory for a lot of people but those are the rules. to twoe: you are talking random beneficiaries of country house's win. two dollars i managed to inadvertently bet on it at a party. what is the context and sermons of the -- in terms of the scene here? the backlash and the background to why they took this. in general, the horse racing industry is kind of on its back foot and trying to regain a narrative. in california, one of the top horseracing markets in the country, there were a rash of horse injuries. there was a movement in california to try to ban racing in california. there's a school of thought that says, the marquee races in the , thery, churchill downs
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kentucky derby, dangerous riding, dangerous activity. what i do know is this. that horse needed to be disqualified. it is pretty clear cut. romaine: so the number one and number two horse -- are we going to see it in the next triple crown race? david: the second-place horse who is now the winner was originally saying no, my horse is not going to go to the preakness. saidhe realized he won, he they feel a sort of obligation to go. winner who was disqualified, i don't think you will see him for a while. what the particular
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writer was saying come the jockey was saying, that maximum security got unnerved. david: they are all babies, all three-year-olds. he clearly spooked. but these horses are used to going to the track and seeing 8000 or 9000 kind of quiet people at the track. on derby day, there's 150,000 people. joe: the horse that you picked? david: i don't know what you are talking about. joe: you were on here last week. david: i don't know. [laughter] caroline: such great expertise as ever. we thank you very much. don't miss this. dallas fed president robert kaplan speaks in beijing. joe: i will be speaking economic data. the numbers out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. romaine: lyft reports
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first-quarter earnings after the bell. "bloomberg technology" is up next in the u.s. joe: this is bloomberg. ♪
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