tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg August 1, 2019 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
we will look at the performance of asian makers and hear from general motors. let's see how things are shaping up for asian rackets. -- markets. roiling's tweets are markets and the stocks look to be opening at a low. taking a look at nikki futures, down a little more than 1%. this brings on the prospect of more retaliation. that will be way down on the .hares of these asian companies especially when japan opens, we will be seeing what's going to happen between japan and south korea. we are expecting the prime minister to have an announcement about how they treat those south korean companies. looking closely ahead to that as well as checking on the commodities later. sophie: thanks so much. checking in on the terminal.
oc been numbers coming up, rounding out the three big lenders. net income at $1.22 billion compared to the estimate of $1.9 billion. allowances for loans and other assets came out at $111 million. second-quarter growth was likely driven by expansion in interbank rates. income was speculated to be one of the drivers for loan growth. numbers out this morning, earlier today, we had others. we will have a guest to discuss the banks after the second quarter results. thanks. let's get back to our top story. president trump abruptly announced a new 10% tariff on virtually all remaining chinese imports. xi jinping is not moving fast
enough, he says. duties will affect $300 billion worth of goods, going into effect september 1. economicsscuss the are tom and sarah. start with you. how much of an escalation is this? a really came out of left field after what were described as constructive talks. sarah: just yesterday, the two sides seemed to be pleased that talks were continuing and they were going to wait until september to have the next meeting. august seemed like it would be quiet, but we got news today and china will wake up to trump street that he is imposing this 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of goods out of his own frustration that he believes china is not playing ball fast enough. this took market by surprise and
it is a major escalation. hime was a truce between and president xi and that is off now. it will be interesting to see china's reaction. sophie: this tariff move also likely took beijing by surprise. will this force china to compromise? tom: i think if you look at everything china has said and done in the last 12 months, particularly since may, when ,elations started to fall apart everything you hear from the chinese side suggests that they will not make concessions on the back of this. if anything, it will strengthen the hands of the hardliners who say that trump cannot be trusted. they have been calling in the past few months for sincerity in these talks. this does not look like a sincere move on the back of these conversations that took place in shanghai. another key demand was the
removal of tariffs to get a deal with beijing. we are just seeing these tariffs increase or we will on the first of september. the question is, what will china do to respond? it is likely they will look at retaliatory measures, maybe speed up the publishing of its unreliable entities list and look at nontariff barriers, like scrapping licenses, increasing enforcement for u.s. companies here. those will likely be considered. it certainly has increased instability. tom was describing a few in china that president trump cannot be trusted, but could president trump the saying the same thing about china? he feels the handshake commitments have not been honored. sarah: absolutely. from the u.s. side, trump feels that president xi had promised to buy more u.s. agricultural goods when they met and that has
not been followed through upon. the trump administration has revoking theser draft commitments and not operating in good faith. trumps interesting is didn't even give beijing advance notice of this announcement. combined, i think there is a good chance that china will not take this favorably. this could mark an escalation on both sides of this trade war. we will be watching for whether china will come to washington as planned to continue these talks. sensecan you give us some of what this is going to mean in real terms for china? tom: bloomberg economics has been looking at the impact of tariffs. you had those tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods and now
you're looking at 10% kicking in in september. this could put a drag of .6% on china gdp. if you get tariffs on all chinese goods, you could be looking at a loss of $1.2 trillion. the question is what the policy response is from china. the finance ministry, how will they react to this news? will they halt fire or start to roll out more aggressive policy measures to support the economy? we see from the pmi that it remains in contraction but it has begun to stabilize. that now, those green shoots are likely to be in jeopardy. will we see a more aggressive response from the central bank in terms of fiscal policy? that is what we will be looking
for. sophie: tom mackenzie and greg mcgregor on the latest trade. later, we will hear from mike pompeo. don't miss that exclusive session coming up at 10:00 a.m. hong kong time, 10:00 p.m. thursday night in new york. here to walk us through the market reaction is su keenan. let's start with stocks that were up and then came down after the trump tweet. su: that was a dramatic reversal and pretty much all sectors were hit. let's take a look at financials, which were hit hard. at the top of the charts, prudential came in with earnings on the downside, bank of america was the biggest the klein in more than two months and goldman sox -- goldman sachs solve volatility. a lot of industrials that you would expect have been in the bull's-eye of these tariffs but
also best buy. some analysts are saying this company could see its gains for the year wiped out as consumers are hit with tariffs, then a chemical polymer company, a lot of the companies like dow hit hard. even some retailers, they had the biggest declines. look at the size of these. office depot down 8%. there is a view that these will get passed on, these tariffs to the consumer and that is where the rubber will hit the road. take a look at one more panel. anyway you slice it, one analyst are, escalations of this across-the-board going to hit hard. it is not good news for the market and he says it is likely going to get worse. paul: not too many places to hide today. oil on its own wild ride, sliding the most in four years on his tariffs. brutal.close was
it was down about 8%. you can see where it drops off a cliff. big picture, it is a dramatic come down and the concern is obvious, commodities got smoked is the way one strategist put it, but pretty much concerns about the factory slump, the rate cut and that goes right to demand for oil. gold went down early in the session. it shot up on the tweet. the volatility created by the trump administration and the uncertainty of the trade situation has proved to be good for gold. paul: su, thanks for joining us. let's check on the first word news. popular protests in hong kong continued thursday evening with the gathering of finance workers
in the city center. more events are planned on the weekend as long as a general strike involving more than 90 unions. china celebrated the anniversary of its military and released a training video showing soldiers taking part in what was labeled as and antiriot drill. we firmly support hong kong in defending the rule of law and safeguarding national sovereignty and security. forceseve that the pla will be the anchor for long-term prosperity and stability. >> markets recoiled on the use. 500 saw the biggest drop since may on the president's comments. trump said he is not concerned, claiming he expected that and oil fell the most in more than fears the trade war will exacerbate the
slowdown. protests in hong kong may be starting in macau. revenue in the city unexpectedly fell last month down 3.5% to $3 billion. that missed forecasts of a 2% increase and cut short a two month rebound. casinos have been holding up in the face of a trade in the weakening u.s. economy, but tourists are arriving in record levels. global news 24 hours a day over the air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: thanks. most u.s.ome, automakers enjoyed sales gains last month. what to expect when. i and honda report earnings later. sophie: up next, u.s. markets were roiled after president trump announced a fresh round of tariffs. will we see a selloff?
sophie: we are seeing action in markets when it comes to trump's tweets on the trade war. bond deals plummeting to all kinds of lows. dropping moreld than 25 basis points below the cash rate of 1%. we can anticipate quite a bit of rice action at the start of cash trade. this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." been is we have cussing, president trump is ramping up the pressure on china, announcing a fresh round of tariffs and sending stocks sliding. says the move is the opposite of operating in good faith.
strategist for capital markets joins us now. thanks for joining us. >> we have not a trade escalation today. all sorts of confusion over the messaging yesterday. i think that would be the sort of most likely course of action to take. we have had rallies driven by multiple expansions, particularly in australia. if we look at the upcoming earnings season, it should be pretty easy to beat, given that they have been lowering significantly throughout the year. run into trouble is where analysts are predicting recovery through 2020 and if we see companies reporting a subdued outlook based on the fact that we have ongoing trade tensions. chinese growth slowing. u.s. growth slowing. we think it is set to slow
considerably more than the consensus expects at this point in time. we also have the manufacturing sector in decline. business in decline as well. that will be reflected in company outlook statements. revises will have to downward. paul: let's come back down toward the earnings. one of the themes today is what the fed does. everybody was on the fence about september. not so much now. let's take a look at the expectations for rate cuts in september. people think it is going to happen. that is a widespread belief. a couple questioning whether a rate cut is necessary. the question is not just when. eleanor: we think the fed will be cutting in september. if you look for reasons why the fed cut this week, a lot was sent to global uncertainty and i
think the fed will have to continue on this easing path. it will take a huge uptake in the data to push them off this path and confirmation of the fact that inflation pressures are on the rise and the global outlook is having some stability, which is not going to happen overnight. trump tariffs on china again. we also got the manufacturing sector spilling into the services sector. trade sensitive services like freight and shipping. it is only a matter of time before it starts to have a more broad impact to effect the sector and that is when we see it spill over into the labor market and effect on consumption. that is why we are going to see central banks coming to the forefront and continuing on the easing path. sophie: there are plenty of reasons for the bond market to keep rallying. how are you petitioning when it
comes to treasuries? earlier this year, we saw 10 year above 3% for the end of 2019. those are looking more optimistic right now. eleanor: you are exactly right. that is one of the reasons why we think the bond market rally still has legs. movement against the optimism that we saw last year and we are going to have growth continue to decline. we have a decline in business investment, in world trade, in exports, and we have ongoing trade tensions adding to the uncertainty. on that basis, in the heightened geopolitical risks, we expect this on the market rally to continue as we see global central banks come to the forefront of a new easing cycle. bloomberg have the dollar index just coming within a hair of the 2019 peak.
where are you looking forward to when it comes to the u.s. dollar? eleanor: at the moment, the dollar is relatively supported on the fact that what other currency do you want to own when it is a race to the bottom for global central banks. in a sense, these upcoming strengths we could see over the next quarter could actually so the seeds of its own demise. if we see dollar strength continuing, that is a significant hindrance to inflation through 2019 and it will only set the fed on a more aggressive easing pathway or failing that, it is only a matter of time until you see trump step in with intervention, trying to talk the dollar down. risk of a material trump forcing the treasury to intervene and promote dollar weakness or force the fed on a more aggressive easing cycle. paul: quickly, we have got the meeting next week, usually it is
cut twice, wait and see. have the events of the past week change that picture? eleanor: not so much. the rba at the moment, they have just labored to back to back rate cuts and they will wait and see how that trickles through the broader economy. more generally, i think they are going to be cutting again. we have seen them shipping on the labor market. unemployment above 5% at the moment, there is significant work to be done to get on plymouth below five point -- 5%. that is predicated upon rate cuts. that could bring the unemployment rate down. thanks very much for joining us. plenty more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg.
sophie: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. i am paul allen in sydney. sophie: china's largest gas distributor is capitalizing on a push to consume cleaner fuel, but the trade war has stalled negotiations. china gas founder and executive chairman told us how he expects to bridge the gap. estimate shows china may import as much as 250 pounds per year by 2030. we held several negotiations with an exporter but the deal had to be suspended because of the trade war. we are waiting for the u.s. and china to reach a deal before we can restart talks but we are willing to find a way to move the deal forward. >> if tariffs remain in place, how much do expect to import from the u.s. moving forward and
if they are removed, what quantities do you expect to be importing? i hope it won't happen. we want to diversify our sources and it is key to see more channels to import from around the world. middle eastern and russian companies among others have approached us for potential deals. we are currently in talks with several suppliers. showa: recent gdp data that china's economy has slowed to the weakest pace since 1992. do you have a good window into china's economy? view on the health of the chinese economy today based on what you're hearing from your customers? liu: there is no denying that china's economic growth has slowed since last year. to be honest, such adjustments
don't have a direct impact on natural gas distributors. i'm not saying the situation doesn't affect energy providers, but our opportunities come from china's restructuring of energy consumption. the economic slowdown and trade war don't have a big impact on industrial users. with 40 to 50 industries that we serve, only one or two have seen a direct impact. mainly, papermaking and utensils. other industries appear to be doing just fine. earlier in your career, you left the government to form a company to make enterprises more efficient. what is your take on the current pace of reform of china's s&p? it is a sticking point in the trade war right now. gas distribution reform
inuld be the most successful the past 20 years. that includes water, power, gas and public transportation. i see opening up as the biggest driver of any reform in china. it does not decide whether you are successful or not. the key is the efficiency in management. with proper management, any company has the chance to be successful. paul: that was china gas -- liu ming ,omg hui. china guesswork seems to be arranging $6 billion of additional financing. sales are expected next month. they say they are seeking to borrow money in two ways. a $4 billion loan. technology company saleh trade holdingstake in a 12.6%
♪ >> "bloomberg daybreak: asia." u.s. manufacturing declined last month to a three year low, weighed down by slowing production and week exports. the institute for supply management eased to 51.2 in july from 51.7 one month earlier. that is after a bloomberg survey with readings of 52. measures of output all declined during the month. most carmakers accelerated in the u.s. last month with generally positive sales numbers lending credence to claims the sector would see its first monthly gain of the year. most of asia's main auto names
were upbeat while nissan was the exception. it posted another month of sales declines in what is shaping up to be a bad year. chrysler, ford and gm no longer report monthly sales. 10%ident trump is to impose more tariffs on china from next month. it is warning the levy might rise 25% if trade negotiations fail to progress. it affects $300 billion of goods shipped from china and come into effect september 1. the president said his counterpart must do more to evolve the trade dispute. >> i think he wants to make a deal, but he is not going fast enough. he said he was going to be buying from our farmers. he didn't do that. he said he would stop fentanyl from coming to our country. it is all coming from china. boeing is said to be redesigning the flight control center of the 737 max 8 employee
data from both its computers rather than just one. we are told boeing hopes to present a final software package to regulators next month. sources say the timeline could flip. the latest approach is more comprehensive than a software update. boeing is preparing to fix flaws related to two fatal crashes. global news 24 hours a day over the air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. newse: we have shown one citing a pboc official saying the recent fed rate cut, not a decisive factor when it comes to china's monetary policy. rises overculation the possibility of a move to support growth on the mainland. policymakers are under pressure to stabilize growth so additional measures are anticipated all the top leadership has signaled
reluctance to roll out major monetary measures and is focused on targeted stimulus policies like corporate tax cuts. we are seeing them cite this unidentified official saying easing continues to be the main policy. happening right now, we have got president trump holding a campaign rally in cincinnati, ohio. just walking through the crowd here as he approaches the lectern. this is going to be an interesting rally. not just because of what president trump says, but because of what the crowd says. rally since anst event in north carolina where the crowd began chanting "send her back," in relation to the somali born presented a bill on omar. trump said he preferred the crowd not to do that, but then
changed and called the crowd "p atriots." this is a racially and politically charged rally. once the president begins speaking, we will come back to that battleground state of ohio. half an hour away from the open in tokyo. let's get to selina wang in hong kong to see what we are watching on the markets. selina: a very busy day. i want to start with australian bond yields, plummeting to an all-time low after trump announced 10% tariffs on 300 billion dollars in chinese imports. they are dropping 10 basis points, 25 basis points beyond the reserve bank cash rate. gold got a trump bump. gold bullion was on its way for a second straight decline when it reversed losses after trump announced new tariffs. another commodity i want to feature, copper futures. trade tensions really dent the
outlook for demand of industrial law materials. tariffs on slowing china growth. since china is the largest consumer of copper, that could lead to industrial matters -- metals lower. a global bond market rally after president trump tweeted he is putting more tariffs on china. global forces may push down u.s. growth. what does this mean for a september rate cut? >> certainly markets around the world are pushing those rate cut bets higher. certainly to the federal reserve. they have put that question of global uncertainty at the top of their list. president trump didn't like that they didn't do a bigger rate cut. steped has taken the first
. bond on fire today. that is the only way can put it. now, coming out of china, the implication is it could not only hurt u.s. growth but her china's economy as well. it is not just the u.s. bond market. aussie three year yield at a record low. the two year yield spiking. see whate a look and is going on with the two year yield. that surging after there was a move in the other direction yesterday. this yellow line is volatility in the price of the note. it is the bottom one you want to focus on because you can see the yield has had quite a move. let's move on to the fed rate and a bond selloff in jay
powell signaling a big concern that they would move to the rate cut. they are watching as there could be more, but another big hurdle to cross and maybe it is an opportunity for that rate cut. look athasing managers factory forces, factory jobs, exports. weaker, so now we are going to look at the job support as another signal. rate cuts are changing with that september move. they are saying we think they are going to cut. the jobs report will have a lot to do with spending coming out of that as well. let's talk about the bank of england. governor carney seems to be hamstrung by the specter of brexit. >> when i started looking at
what was coming out of the bank of england, they won't even put a hard brexit on the table. people say he doesn't want to say look how bad things would get if boris johnson pushes hard in that direction. nevertheless, i think the broader context, particularly in light of what we are looking at, brexit banks, a hard doesn't just threaten the u.k.. it also threatens the whole european economy. not as much. the european central bank is also meeting in september. in one week, we have bank of japan and fed. a hard brexit coming, if we have more concerns, that will include mario draghi. we lean more toward him cutting that negative right -- negative rate even further. may be that is more reason for them to be looking at a rate cut. goebel and economic policy
editor kathleen hays in tokyo. thanks for joining us. while one of the biggest stories plunging 8% in new york for the steepest one-day drop in four years. this after president trump ramped up tariffs. joining us with more, james, crude saw one of the biggest reactions. is it trade driven? james: very big move. markets softened up earlier in the week and we had those comments from the fed chairman following the rate cut that he .ignaled that shot the market up. there has been a fair amount of froth in the price. still up 90% on the year. probably primed for a pullback. outsized reaction on the back of the trump comments. with that being said, you can't overestimate the impact of these tariffs. effectively, if these tariffs come into force in september, u.s. is effectively putting tariffs on every chinese import
and we have heard some estimates from the oil industry that that could have an impact on one third of global demand going into the next 12 months or so. that is material impact and will have an impact on prices. sophie: what about the supply side of the equation when it comes to concerns like tension in the strait of hormuz? james: they are still bubbling away in the background. maybe a little quieter on that front. those demands have been coming up this week. investors are probably going to have in the back of their mind the situation of a flashpoint where trump was presented with plans to launch air strikes against iran and he pulled away. i think the feeling is that the president doesn't want this to escalate to a military conflict and there will be some joining of heads to avoid that outcome. that is not to say -- a could
flare up again. it is obviously very volatile. it would not take much. another strike on a tanker and this is back again. for now, it is not priority for the crude market. they are focused on the context of the trade war. sophie: good overall point. thanks very much. bloomberg news energy reported. auntie more to come on daybreak asia. ♪
i sophie: am paul allen. i am sophie kamaruddin. nissan continues to have a rough year. the carmaker boasted a 9.1% drop in u.s. sales and plans to trim production capacity by 10%. joining us to dig into the reason, japan and korea sales forecast manager at ihs markets. nissan was a standout when it came to this sales figure. means look at what this for nissan going forward. what signals are you taking from this? >> i believe in the u.s. market, hazy, soct lineup is intense competition with a product lineup. the consequences with more car and in the in demand
u.s. market, it is demanding more trucks and suvs, where nissan is slightly weaker. that could be some of the risk on that one. automakers with u.s. versus amongst japanese automakers. sophie: when it comes to toyota and honda's performance for u.s. car sales in july, we saw them make gains compared with one .ear ago along with subaru do you see any risk of this turnaround we are seeing in sales? not very much. the thing is, as i said, for the product lineup for toyota and honda, it could be better positioned than the nissan, so that could be the case for the
tailwind for toyota and honda. still, in comparison to the suv's, the ratio of slightly lags behind of other competitors, so it will be catching up. midsouth andin the southern states, huge demand of pickup trucks and suvs, where toyota and honda don't have much of the market. lead to it slightly lagging behind in comparison to other automakers. i just want to get into toyota strategy. as we look at this chart, you is the white line, that
toyota's stock, outperforming ando topix and suzuki nissan. i am wondering how much that is due to the diversification in the u.s., getting into batteries, fuel sales, ride-hailing? is this a vote of confidence from investors? yoshiaki: i think it is wait and see. for the ride-hailing services as well. horizon,onger-term there could be an investment in ility asice and e-mob honda announced. that is on the horizon. put the portfolio much toward the u.s. average of other product portfolios,
getting close to them. they could be competing against them for the other oems. some popular vehicles and crossover suvs, that could be help for the oems to push up sales as well. california, the state of the ,arket needs electric vehicles so that could be push in the oems. factor that all automakers are having to deal with in japan that they have no control over is the strength of the yen. we have seen the yen hit a two-year high today. to what extent is that weighing on them? you said i think as
for the stronger yen, we have seen today, that could be some of a risk for the higher export ratio and export to the united states. they may be affected, particularly for the subaru and mazda. some other products in toyota as well. honda has been localized production in the u.s., so that might be the better push when it comes to the stronger japanese yen. andthe electric vehicles some of the eco-friendly vehicles mean the produced in japan to export to other markets, so that may be the case ,or price competitiveness intense competition against others as well. ihs japan and korea vehicle sales forecast manager, thanks for joining us.
sticking with carmakers, general motors posted results that tough estimations in a climate in the auto industry. >> we are in the early days of a rollout, starting to see very positive reception to silverado, sierra and roll the rest of the truck lineup, we are confident. we have been very disciplined in this department and we have taken actions, starting to see the effects of that rolling through. the team is navigating through the headwinds today. >> what does that do to margins? typically, you make more money off a truck than other vehicles. dhivya: overall, north american margins, 10.7% margins, very strong. to your point, a lot of that was driven by the strength of the truck franchise. you are seeing the mix of high
content that we delivered during the quarter as well as strong prices we are seeing. across the board, positive for crossovers. up 17% from a crossover perspective year-over-year and our new launches are doing well. i would say overall, very good in north america. >> going beyond north america to china, general motors distinguished itself with a substantial operation in china. china has been having trouble. how is gm doing? dhivya: our equity income, we did have headwinds. going in, we expected this environment to be volatile and as you think about the second quarter, they will see overall economic slowdown, the industry goes down on the back of that. there were significant pricing pressures, change in standards from china five to china six that drove the pricing. as youth think about the backdrop we are executing within
that, we are being more disciplined on inventory, cutting by 10% and importantly, we are getting ready for our significant launches coming up later this year. that is going to be in the heart of the growth segment where our launches are going to be suvs. about-term as we think markets, we have strong brands and strong partners. >> how long is longer-term when it comes to china? will the second half of the year be better than the first half? dhivya: the macro is difficult to predict, but from our own plans, the launches we mentioned, despite headwinds, we take earnings to be in line the second half or first half, so roughly flat. motorshat was general cfo there. just got some breaking news across the terminal. japan, from the bank of policy settings unchanged on
markets such as asia. the parent of bloomberg news competes to provide financial news and financial information. continued restructuring has stalled the chance of short-term revenue jumps this year. sales matched analyst estimates of $1.7 billion on discount offerings in a boost to its image. slashed its wholesale business in half to gain control over merchandise by selling more in its own stores. selina is here on a check of the markets. what are you watching? selina: these futures are pointing to a sharp decline at the open of trade. nikkei futures down more than 2%. they are roiling financial markets. just one day after trump delivered the first interest rate cut in one decade. watching for what we may be learning from a meeting by the
prime minister's cabinet before 10:30 a.m. they may decide to remove south korea from a list of trusted export destinations. after those trump tweets, we also saw the yen gain against all peers. advancing as much as one point 4% against the greenback. the currency was already climbing amid expectations at the bank of japan will be the last of the major central banks to ease borrowing costs. trump has been railing against currency manipulators. board, fourthe last stocks to watch. my eyes are on honda and toyota, reporting earnings today. there is some hope for these car brands in 2019 with several foreign brands posting positive sales numbers recently and united overseas bank reported earnings. second quarter profit rose on increases in lending and trading income. paul: thanks very much.
phil:. i am paul allen. there an hour away from open. sophie: i sophie in hong kong. -- i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. ♪ >> our top stories this friday. stocks sink as is and trump ramps up tariffs on china. move boost bets on jay powell making of the rate cut in september, with a stampede into the u.s. bond market. sophie: could the unthinkable happened in hong kong?
the protest move on, there are fears that china could send in the military. let's go over to lindo wing -- lena wang. -- selina wang. >> it's looking like an ugly start to the session. the nikkei 225 down more than 1.6%. the topics down 1.5%. 1.5%.ix down people are flocking to the haven currency of the yen amid the trade war. foot in the board to korea. the board to korea. all these asian companies are being tried to the tape -- tied to the trade war. expecting retaliation from china. going to australia and new zealand.
concerns there. down more than .3%. rc yields fell to eighth -- -- fell to a felt three year low. everyone digesting the news from trump when it came to tariffs. paul: let's get a closer look at our asian markets. in march cranfield in singapore. let's start off with the yuan. how do we expect to see that move during the course of the morning? will belot of people watching the pboc fixing this morning. when trading opened, the offshore yuan was at its weakest point this year, not too surprising. it usually does that when the united states increased tariffs against china. you would expect the currency to weaken. it's a huge divergence from where the onshore market was
trading earlier in the day on thursday. the fixing point today, the pboc will probably use measures again and remain some column in the yuan. they will have to adjust it from where it was yesterday. not as far as the market has taken it. what people will be asking is how much longer can the pboc retain this tight range when tariffs have increased this year , and the currency does not reflect that change. what we saw last year was the yuan gradually weakened as the tariffs kicked in to hurt the economy. this year, the rate is different. we haven't even reached the points of last year. we have put in the changes introduced already and the ones proposed for september. there could be quite a bit of room to open when the pboc steps back. the pboc is assuming they could do it at some point in the dollar yuan will trade about
seven. -- above seven. traders seem prepared for. it can't be much longer before the pboc will allow more fix ability and the -- fixability, and it trading above the seven mark. sophie: korean assets are getting sold off. the korean won at the 1200 level. the lowest since 2017. fallent be -- kospi has below 200 points. seeing a series of portico data poorsouth korea of late -- data from south korea of late. are you taking from these? korea has been in trouble for some time. we have seen a steady deterioration in their exports and growth. the bank of korea has cut rates
once. they will most likely cut rates again. that will certainly not helped a great deal. asia is being hurt by the tariffs. you can see the singapore economy is a great example. quarter, they wanted to contraction. that may be the case for other economies in asia. singapore is exposed to what happens in global trade. quarter, they wanted to contraction. when singapore is in trouble, that's not good news for asia at all. things are not looking very good anyway. the tariffs are coming in september. the outlook has to be for slower growth everywhere. central banks will continue to lower rates. they will do their best. one's economy will have
rough year, but not too much that weaker currencies can do about it. there divide their time and get through. one rough year, butsophie: we see ty continuing on. traders must be scrambling to adjust where they see rates going from here. mark: absolutely. when you see a quickly u.s. yields fell yesterday, that will be the signal for the rest of the world. there is certainly room. australia and new zealand are expected to lower rates at some point in this cycle. that is how -- helping to drive their yields down. it will be a similar story to those countries around asia. fortunately, they have room to cut rates. we've already seen a number of countries cutting, but they were raising rates generally in line with the fed. they can do more. bond yields will be pumping. people will be looking for a relatively safe place to put their money. equity markets are looking onshore. bonds will keep contracting new investors.
look at europe. yields are in negative territory. it is possible some of the asian yields will get close to zero as well. paul: just keeping an eye on the nikkei 225. that has suffered it's worth drop since march 25. it looks like we are shaping up for an ugly day and equities in asia. -- we are shaping up for an ugly day and equities in asia. nikkei is quite a good indicator of what to expect. the big one will be the china markets which open in a couple of hours. we will see what happens there. it will not be a regular day. mark cranfield in singapore. let's get more reaction to our top story. president donald trump escalating the trade war with china. derek while back joins us from
singapore. a couple of days ago, everyone is walking away from shanghai "constructive." what happened? onehe red headline we sent that broke 30 minutes early was no accident. you saw a dip in the markets at that point. apparently, according to the u.s. side, there wasn't any big offer that went on there. they are trump thinks dragging their heels on purchasing agricultural goods from the u.s.. there are other complaints the u.s. side has. reporters said that quite frankly they will go for a 10% tariff september 1. he said there is a lot of room for that to grow. it's not just like a one-off threat. it is an escalating, ratchet threat.
here, then the option to go higher if you want. i guess there is a lot of good news if you are looking for some solutions. there was a little bit of good news about containment, that the u.s. would not renege on the commitments made during the g20 about suppliers to huawei and non-national security goods supplies. a contagion, contagion -- containment risk you are dealing with. the main issue about tariffs that is alive right now, and you see that in the markets as mark talked about. sophie: trump was back on the campaign trail, and is not a -- in cincinnati. what will this -- how will this affect 2020? derek: there were big
ramifications if this goes into 2020. it will be a top campaign issue. you heard about it on the democratic debate stages. cincinnatirump is in , which is a major area of battleground. ohio was a republican leaning swing state which he one last time. it's one that as i built together my map, it's hard to see a path to donald trump to the white house without winning ohio and michigan. if he does not hold onto the midwestern core that he took from the obama-biden ticket, it is very difficult for this president to win reelection. it's no surprise where he is focusing right now. said, i madeeen this a little bit before the announcement, there have been moves being made in washington to ease the pain here.
both from the white house and without. within the white house, you are looking at things like agricultural subsidy payments. that is offsetting some of the pain. it is making it easier. also, the moves by the fed to ease some tariff pain, what that winds up doing is it has the effect of removing some of the consequence, and even though you are trying to alleviate pain, when you do alleviate it, you also deviate consequence. -- alleviate consequence. i will be watching that. and does washington official washington beyond that, how do they ease the pain of trump's decisions? paul: let's go to the other side of the pacific. the foreign ministers of japan and south korea meeting at the asean summit.
what did we get coming out of that? derek: i have been covering politics for a long time. and really believe pictures. when you saw the photos and videos of the japanese and south korean officials meeting each other, they looked like they would rather be anywhere on gods green earth then where they were at that moment. it was so dour. you are seeing reports coming out of that that not much get fixed. there is now some -- starting to be, in addition to the historical concerns between these two, and the current trade concerns, you are starting to hear talk about mutual security concerns. keep in mind, japan and south korea are both u.s. allies.
they are on similar sides of a lot of disputes. there is some concern that that unity starts to crack. that will be a big problem. of it --hat on the top a lot of different things. if that becomes problematic, that is even worse. can't we all just be friends? the u.s. is sitting there between a rock and a hard place. it's not clear they know what to do to get these two talking again. paul: maybe we will hear more of that when we hear from mike pompeo later on. wallbank, thank you for
joining us. we will be speaking live with mike pompeo later on from barth -- bangkok. it is hosted by haslinda amin. 10:00 a.m. hong kong time. 10:00 p.m. in new york. let's get the first word news with jessica summers. jessica: popular protests in hong kong continued thursday evening with the gathering of finance workers in the city center. acrossents are planned the weekend and on monday involving more than 90 unions. china celebrated the anniversary of its hong kong-based military and released a training video showing folgers -- soldiers taking part in what was labeled as antiriot trail. -- drill. >> we firmly support hong kong in defending the rule of law and safeguarding national sovereignty, centered --
security and hong kong transpired he. we believe the forces stationed in hong kong will be the anchor for long-term prosperity and stability. jessica: u.s. manufacturing declined last month to a three year low, we can by slowing reduction and weak exports. aged 250 -- these 252.1 in july. 52.1 in july. boeing is said to be redesigning a flight control center of the 737 max 8 to employ data from both its computers, rather than one. finalope to present a software package next month. our sources say the timeline could flip. the latest approaches for comprehensive software updates. they have been preparing to fix flaws linked to fatal crashes. india is preparing to cut coal
by a third, counting on an increase of domestic production and a rise in renewable energy. it's down from 230 5 million tons in the last fiscal year. coal india will look to raise domestic output to 900 million tons. targetsissed production every year since 2011. global news 24 hours a day on air and on @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. ahead, thell unthinkable has become a possibility for hong kong. after weeks of unrest, anxiety is growing that beijing might send in the pla. paul: president trump's tear threat may change the script for asian central banks set to meet
investors will be watching next week. central banks in asia will give us an encore to what has been the biggest week of the year for the global economy. the rba will kick things off on tuesday. will followthailand and others as well in the next few days. been have already preemptive cuts across the emerging markets world. we are hearing that it may force further easing among the banks in the region. let's get you over to cincinnati, ohio. president trump addressing the trade tariffs. let's listen. >> now we are stopping the theft of american jobs, we are stopping the theft of so many other things happening,
including intellectual property. they steal our intellectual property. i think they want to try to make a deal with us, but i am not sure. the word is, i feel they want to -- they arehey get praying. they would like to see a new president in a year-and-a-half so they can continue to rip off the united states like they have been doing for the last 25 years. they would love to see a guy like sleepy joe biden, who has no clue what he is doing -- what the hell he is doing. sir,say to sleepy joe, sign right there. ok. i will sign.
we have been losing hundreds of billions of dollars a year in china. it has to stop. they understand that. president xi understands it. such time as there is a deal, we will be taxing china. that's what it is. if foreign countries don't want to pay a tariff, i have a simple solution. make your product in america, come back to the united states, come back to ohio, there is no tariff.
>> thanks to steal tariffs, hundreds of thousands of cats were dumped on our shores. it is like something else. it's not quality. they were dumping garbage. -- they callirt it dirt steel. we didn't want to use that for our jet fighters and our beams at older buildings. they were dumping tremendous qualities -- quantities of steel. steel and our countries were going out of business. i stopped her. i put on a 25% tariff. billions of dollars are pouring into our treasury. our steelworkers are coming back.
right here in ohio, a great steel company. a steel company that is doing great again. an $85ve announced million upgrade in marion. charter steal announced plans to build another -- new for -- $150 million steel mill. cleveland cliffs announced a new $700 million plant in a good place, toledo. this was unthinkable. plants were closing.
on issue after issue, democrats have forgotten who it is they are supposed to represent. i wonder why they forgot. the job of elected officials is to represent american citizens. , evendical democrats support deadly sanctuary cities, which released dangerous criminals onto our streets. many of the places that have sanctuary cities -- paul: you can hear president trump in cincinnati. the u.s. firmly on 2020 presidential election agenda. they willent saying be hoping for a democrat and an attack on one of his opponents, he said sleepy joe biden would
sign anything with china, and until we get a deal they will tax the heck out of china. -- the hell out of china. you could hear cheers from the crowd there. look move on for a closer to what to expect from southeast asian economies and their central banks in this environment, let's bring in priyanka kishore, head of india and southeast asia at oxford economics. . we were just listening to the president there, continuing to amp up the trade rhetoric with china. this escalation not going to be good as the risk of a recession in singapore is increasing. that's definitely true. ,ven in the current environment where they are not currently isecasting, singapore
flirting with recession. through, not only singapore, but other export dependent countries in the region, such as malaysia, thailand, will feel the heat. paul: the you ib has changed its seeing aingapore, not recession coming soon, but they do see easing in october. are they going to need to react sooner than that? i think they will wait to see whether these tariffs are true. ,rump's typical modus operandi not everything he says goes through. we have to see what kind of response comes from china. how they respond to this pressure. they need to dial it
down as we approach the first half of september. i think we will wait until the october meeting. even if these tariffs do not go through, there is a chance, that is our forecast, that they would put it on in the near term. sophie: sophie here in hong kong. these ongoing tensions between u.s. and china, vietnam has been a beneficiary. lighthizer was calling on them to cut their trade surplus. what are the prospects here for potential tariffs levied against vietnam from the u.s.? priyanka: that is true. vietnam has come into the spotlight. benefit fromed to graduating away from china.
especially the manufacturing enterprises sector. exports in vietnam were holding up. the rest of the area continues to drop. the u.s.'sacted attention. vietnam has been taking steps. there are rumors of chinese goods being group -- branded as being made in vietnam and exported are being taken into control and investigated. this does go through, in the short-term, one cannot rule out the possibility that the u.s. does focus on vietnam, and puts a tariff on some of its enterprises. sophie: turning to thailand, which has an exposed to trade risk. they are seeing their lowering expectations for gdp growth, the
worst in four years. what are you anticipating? do you see more coordinated action -- correlated action when it comes to monetary and fiscal policy? downnka: while it has been a downgrading, it has been good view of financial stability as well. seeing regional -- reasonable credit growth as debt is expanding. the centraling back bank from lowering rates. these additional tariffs, would come in. i don't think that would cut imminently. but the prospects of them lowering rates as we go into q4 has gone up.
in terms of coordination, not only in thailand, but across the region, we are seeing support come in on the fiscal and monetary policy side, and buffering domestic demand. sophie: thank you for the preview. priyanka kishore, head of india and southeast asia at oxford economics. let's get the first word news with jessica summers. tosica: president trump's impose 10% tariffs on additional chinese imports next month. levy mighthat the rise to 25% of trade negotiations fail to progress. the new tariffs affect 300 billion dollars of goods from china and come into effect on september 1. the president said his counterpart, xi jinping must do more to resolve the trade dispute. >> i think he wants to make a deal. he's not going fast enough. he said he would be buying from our farmers. he did not do that. he said he would stop fentanyl
from coming into our countries. he did do that. jessica: the s&p 500 index sides biggest two-day drop since may as talks -- stocks swung from game to losses on the president's comments. the president said he is not concerned at all, claiming "i expected that." oil fell the most in more than four years. fears that the trade war will exacerbate the global slowdown and drag on the demand for energy. the protests in hong kong may be starting to deter gambling in macau. fell down the city 3.5% to $3 billion. that missed forecasts of a few percent increase had cut short a two-month rebound. casinos had been holding up in the face of the trade war and weakening u.s. economy with tourist arrivals at record levels. is warning the outlook
for the carmaker in india remains gloomy. he tweeted import duties there are extremely high and make tesla's unaffordable. salesaid tesla could be on in india within 12 months in june. stocks have fallen 30% this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more paul: let'sntries. check in on what is happening in hong kong with selena. markets arey and seeing a lot of red on my board when it comes to equity. sliding at the opening of trade. japan and south korea are slumping during the trade spat. they are now reckoning with trump's latest declaration on trade. you're seeing australia and new zealand sinking to all-time lows.
question for investors is whether this is the first step in a series of escalations. or maybe a negotiating stance. maybe this will compel china to make concessions with the fed to ease. australian bond yields are plummeting to all-time lows. yearg look at the three bond, falling 10 basis points to .73%. a fun one for movers here. looking at these gold miners, they are rallying. up more than 11.9%. look at green across the board. reacting overnight to the job in gold. it was on its way to its second straight decline on thursday before trump escalated the trade war with new tariffs. iron ore futures are falling as well. lots of news. sophie: as president trump escalates the trade war, one company continues to be caught in the middle. while weight has seen a dramatic slowdown in sales growth as it deals with efforts to curb its
business. shery ahn spoke to their chief security officer in new york and discussed how the company is addressing the matter. >> we have been actively involved in independent evaluations of our products around the world. most recently, the oversight board and united kingdom. we sell on all the characters. what is called the radio access networks. they identified late last year, vulnerabilities in our software. in a finite state, that is cap he has of in the u.k. it brought to our attention important lessons. we have committed as a company to spent $2 million over the next five years to improve our engineering processes and remove the clutter in our code and make sure we are consistent so there will be as many vulnerabilities. and also to make our code more readily adaptable for the new
technologies of artificial intelligence and other technologies coming forward. wouldnk our competitors benefit from similar evaluations of their products. scarlet: we are going from a 4 we are going into a 5g world. the architectures are becoming more complex. carriers happens, might not have as much control over the edge of the network. how can huawei guarantee the security of that? the >> coalition of the companies globally that has been developing impressive standards to address the specific threat environment we see in 5g, and it will be a big thing because different use cases will allow different use cases. they have come up with new model thatnder a new will provide a greater security and insurance and transparency for everybody's products. less distinct was between the core of the network.
the radio access part of the network, there is a security interface between the core and the radio access. there is a security access between that and something else. the beauty that we are seeing with the u.k. operators is multiple suppliers within it that helps manage the risk and makes sure there is diversity, so there is more resilient if there is a shutdown. while the core would move closer to the edge, the separation between the core and a ram will be maintained with the security at hansteen. -- enhance. -- enhanced. the australian government spoke out that they are not making a change in their policy. we have to remember that right now, there is a geopolitical environment in which china talks. the u.s. had reportedly influenced the u.s. government a
year ago to block huawei from the 5g environment. whatever environment they have been provided to, or in reports, there's no way they would reconsider at this time. we would be shocked if they had said anything differently. >> aside from the security issues, there seems to be an image problem with huawei. we are seeing allegations against the cfo against allegations against dilation of iran sanctions. we are hearing other stories about huawei stealing trade secrets. how do you convince the people you can trust huawei. >> the measures we are talking about our measures concerning transparency. that's one way to do it. when you look at the global campaign taking place for 18 months by the u.s. government, it is astounding when you look at the number of countries that have pushed back, countries like
the u.k. and germany said they had been given no evidence of major cybersecurity wrongdoing by huawei. they would continue to pursue a risk mitigation approach, which all experts cap. in the u.s., block huawei if you must, but take the measures necessary to -- necessary to make sure everything is secure. paul: that was the huawei chief security officer. later, the unthinkable has become a possibility for hong kong. anxiety is growing that beijing may send in the pla after weeks of street protests. this is bloomberg. ♪
:asia." paul: singapore banks kept it a positive earnings season with better-than-expected numbers. we are joined by a senior bloomberg analyst. pretty good performance all around. what are your key takeaways? >> good morning. the numbers are quite interesting. points --ree basis margin point -- three basis point margin gain is good. at 20. that is an interesting take away. or 9% ofabout eight profit growth which the street did not expect. i highlighted on monday i think they could add in this quarter. at two basis points margin gain.
a couple of these factors have worked out well for the banks. very good numbers. also the earnings calendar is the state bank of india, set report later on friday. what do you expect? >> that's another one. if you look at last year's 49 billion gains and loss, they will have a strong rebound from that level. somes several metrics, things -- things will work out fine for the bank. the new formation should ease here on. they should see a substantial treasury gain for this quarter as well. i expect a strong set of numbers. the one thing i would watch out for is how many margin gains. those are the three key things
out watch out for. sophie: next week, we have a string of central banks and asia-pacific do to make their policy decisions, including the r.b.i. and rba. after the fed rate cuts, what does that mean for the central banks? you look at the comments yesterday, that was interesting. he said that was not the start of a prolonged easing cycle. that is the key thing i would take away from that. we've already seen quite a number of central banks and here. i think they can go further. our economist expect another 50 basis points from india. the one issue for the exporting economies, there is room to go. sophie: thank you so much.
also joining us now is krishna guha, senior analyst at jeffries . morning,u this -- this reporting better-than-expected profits. where does this play someone when it comes to weathering economic slowdowns as well as falling interest rates. do you see them being primed to handle headwinds? krishna guha, senior analyst at jeffries just going -- krishna: just going back to the team, the singapore banks delivered on growth. in terms of a slowdown, that is a concern. the singapore banks have multiple revenue drivers. they have many of them to offset on the easing front, they've increased their dividend. they are fairly well capitalized. banks, are singapore
good.view it is an uncertain time though. that something they are watchful about. p how do you think the second half --paul: how do you think the second half is looking? they have set a high bar? >> there will be slowdown definitively. what we need to look at is the growth or slowdown is in relative terms. comfort around asset quality. i think there is a slowdown. pushnk they also want to effortely sustained through cost or leveraging. paul: how about the broader
picture? if there is an impending rate cut, that will that squeeze margins going forward? is there a shadow being cast by that? ? it's uncertain. there is some comfort in the fact that this will not be a prolonged easing cycle. if it is a prolonged easing cycle, there would be an effect on the income of the banks. they can also be an effect on noninterest income, depending how the videos come through. overall, wealth management and more. fromu see the cycle 2010-2016 onward. iny've been able to stay business despite margin staying flat. sophie: there has been a diversification into the wealth management business.
ocbc seeking higher fees from their wealth unit. how do you see this type of business performing going in the second half. -- he echo -- hafey echo -- half ? >> it depends on the market segment. there are products they could be using at certain times. what we need to see is the overall macro contacts. if the macro context is uncertain, then beyond that time, there will be volumes to sell. that should impact the revenue for these banks. the fact is they have the diversification, which helps them to sustain their overall revenue line, irrespective of what the scenario is. i think that is the key takeaway out here.
sophie: what is your assessment of mortgage demand in the second half given the property measures in singapore? we have to see if the property cooling -- the property cooling measures have been there for a year. market correlations to correlate well with the launch pipelines. if the lunches do not do well, then the industry is pulled up. the broader growth, that might be more long. sophie: thank you for joining us. krishna guha, senior analyst at jeffries. don't forget our interactive tv function, tv . you can watch us live and catch up on past interviews.
sophie: the city is preparing for another week and of protests. protesters took to the streets that -- for a protest that lasted over an hour. civil servants are excited to join a rally tonight that is just the first of several planned. let's get more from ian marlowe. how significant is it that civil servants may get involved in these acts of civil disobedience? >> it shows how broadly the aboutent is in hong kong, discontent with the current government. when we have been reporting on these protests, we have met many several retired civil servants. under previous administration's, things were rational and reasonable, but now things are getting out of control. they don't have faith in them and they view them as complete stooges of beijing. they are very angry. i anticipate there will be a couple thousand people out tonight.
it shows broadly how the middle class and others are coming to support some of the more radical protesters. that may stroke the global audience -- straight the global audience is being confusing -- strike the global audience as being confusing. paul: how do we prepare for the nightmare scenario with chinese troops on the street? what happens, what is at stake if you see the pla marching through the city? iain: these rumors have been going around for a few days. it seems like the people's liberation army and the hong kong garrison stationed in the city have been more than willing to fan the flames of these rumors. that's giving the impression that the intervention might be looming. drive a wedge between the radical protesters out there battling the police and the more moderate hong kong citizens who support the overall sentiment of the protests, but don't
necessarily want to see clashes, or troops on the streets. this is all happening with the backdrop of the worries in hong kong since 1989 about tiananmen square. how will that affect relations between the u.s. and china? iain: it's basically a doomsday scenario, the pla getting involved in hong kong. that would destroy the city's reputation. it would throw the high degree of autonomy of this financial hub into question. i think you would see a lot of international companies leave. you've already seen number of them speak out against this extradition bill. with the u.s., you've had a tomoring of some lawmakers threaten to revoke hong kong special status. --s would irreparably --
this would irreparably damage the reputation with the world economy. it's coming at a time when hong kong is more valuable to china in the middle of a trade war. beijing needs the inflows from hong kong more than ever. it gives the trump administration some leverage in terms of holding that as a threat. thanks very much for joining us. let's get a preview and check in with -- with what to watch and markets today. >> a busy day. futures pointing to a week open in china and hong kong. check out the hung saying futures. down more than 600 points. that's taking in account the reaction to trump terrace. japanese and korean stocks opened massively lower. the picture is really that asian assets are struggling to stave off this terrorist induced eltel. switching our board -- meltdown. looking at the new 2019 low
after trump's tweets. getting close to the 2018 low of 6.980 five last seen in november. adjust it'sely to real effective exchange rate lower to offset the impact of possible new tariffs. that would put upward pressure as theses. and asia economies try to accommodate pressure on their currencies. currencies of nations that want to trade with asia and our summit two volatility will be in the crosshairs. that includes the aussie yen. pinterest jumped after hours after reporting better than expected revenue and user growth for the second quarter. we've seen full-year forecast on strong demand for advertising. revenue jumped 62% to $251 million, beating projections of $235 million. features added a $9 million for a total of 30% from a year ago.
paul: technology company cloud revealed carl icahn has taken a big stake. with $220 million. it has fallen by half in the past year, leaving it with a market cap of $1.7 billion. 's talk to seeks to the company to seek board representation. sophie:sophie: delta airlines is to end operations at the narita airport and join other u.s. carriers at another airport. it's being preferred by business travelers, but it depends on the transportation department finalizing new flight routes. it will make it the biggest american carrier at haneda. paul: before he handed over to bloomberg markets: asia, let's tradinghow markets are
across the country. the nikkei is off to percent. off more than 1%. asx down as well. the top performers is a hughes who of gold miners on that market. sophie: checking in on futures trading. the yield we are seeing with a global bond rally taking on. three year yields falling three basis points. gtv yields, taking a hit, falling to the lowest level since march, futures looking across the board in taiwan. daybreak asia, this is bloomberg. s is bloomberg.
in beijing,:00 singapore and shanghai. i am tom mackenzie. yvonne: i am yvonne man. we are counting down to trade. david: i am david ingles. our top stories today. >> until such time as there is a deal, we will be taxing the hell out of china. that is all there is. david: on the back of those -- oil stocks sink. president trump is adding 10% next month. yvonne: reversing losses on gold. this