tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg August 7, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
and samsung sticks with the big screen as it launches the new note 10. it is also working with microsoft. sophie: u.s. stocks and treasury yields stage a comeback signaling more optimism. how are things shaking up markets in asia? did see the s&p go through the largest recovery since december 2018, but traders still clearly weighing as a valuations after we did see the biggest global plunge this week since february 2018. at the nikkei futures, a little bit of weakness, down about .3%, and new zealand opening up about .3 percent. we did see the new zealand central bank, india, and ' surpriseentral banks
interest rate cuts. some things we are watching for today, the big one is china trade did a, expecting exports and imports to decline, reflecting some of that pressure from the trade war. other early indicators also pointed to some weakness. also biggest trading partners have had weakness as well. also watching out for that philippine economy second-quarter gdp data. economists are predicting it grew at a faster pace than before. paul: thanks very much. let's check in on first word news now. >> thanks. the escalating trade or -- war pushing the economy toward the first recession in a decade. larry summers says the risk in the u.s. is higher than it was two months ago and higher than it needs to be. if beijingley says the
hits back on tariffs, a global recession is likely within three quarters. >> there is an extremely high degree of uncertainty reflected in markets. you see that in all the assets people run to when they are scared. long-term u.s. bonds, gold, even bitcoin. that is a sign that people are very anxious. >> president trump bashing the fed again, calling for bigger and faster rate cuts. he wrote it is incompetence when things can be debt with easily, adding that the fed does not understand the u.s. is completely with other countries. he also said the fed is too proud to admit its mistake of acting to quickly and tightening too much. the white house has traditionally not commented on
and policy. three asian central banks did n setates after the rb moves. its fourth cut this year, the repurchase rate is 5.4%, its lowest since 2010. it said it sees more room to ease. china's top agencies in top -- in charge of hong kong affairs held a special meeting to discuss ongoing public unrest. the protests have become a wider challenge in beijing and are raising questions about if china will intervene directly. the seminar included 500 representatives from hong kong. at 24 hours a day and an tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists 120analysts in more than countries. this is bloomberg.
sophie: thank you. u.s. stock and bond yields mounting a late stage come back with the s&p 500 eking out a modest gain. here to explain why is a bloomberg macro strategist and former trader. what ultimately drove stocks and yields higher? >> the stock market followed the bond market. what we saw in the treasury space where yields falling to lows in some places and curve flattening not seen since 2011. aere is some capitulation and short squeeze in the treasury market. they have very poor 10-year options. saw that asrs potentially some sort of sign that the global recession may not be coming or the economic slowdown may not be as great as was earlier thought, but i think that was a mistake on the part of the equity traders. they are following a bit of a false signal. we will see how it breaks out tomorrow and by the end of the week, but certainly everything
that was in place for seeing the equity selloff and a rally in u.s. treasuries is still in place. it just, i think, went a bit too far in the treasury market, and the stock market followed for potentially the wrong reasons. u.s. 30-year bond marching to an all-time low. the close on the yield curve flattened further. what are these moves saying about the path of the yield? are nowhere close to a trade to a trade deal with china. even if representatives from china to come to washington to discuss trade, 10% tariffs will be in place. they will be in effect, but that's another hangover to be discussed at those trade talks. if the talks do not go well, it is more likely they get ratcheted up to 25%. this time next month or some time in late december, we could be discussing 25% tariffs on the balance of chinese imports,
largely a slower global economy and back in the same situation as we saw yesterday with lower equities and lower treasuries. sophie: today, we will be getting china's july trade data. what do you expect? >> the fix yesterday was below 70. they are holding it in check. they will be issuing bills to on those. a squeeze like to see where that plays out . paul: thanks for joining us. the reversal of sharp declines has u.s. investors concerned about more volatility ahead. we also see oil futures move
higher index into trading after a plunge of almost 6% intraday. su keenan joins us with more on the day's trading. what are the highlights? the highlight was the reversal itself. statistically, the third biggest since december 20 17. take a look at how things played out. of course, the dollar ended up pretty much close to unchanged. you have heard about the turnaround in bond yields. consumer staples ended up being one of the stronger parts of the stock market. let's take a look at the big movers on the day. the big movers includes a drugstore chain which saw its biggest jump in eight years after raising its forecast. watchers, a huge 40% gain as the company beat earnings after hours yesterday. it continued to carry through in the session. oprah winfrey, the billionaire, what of the biggest investors
and also a spokesperson for the company, so that is helping in the rebound. disney falling the most since on thatllowthrough "star wars" ride really proving a disappointment at the theme parks. profit-taking is a theme of late. -- investors pulling out pulling money out of markets? show investorscs have pulled $25 billion from the market so far this year. sophie: trading plunging as much as 6% in oil markets. walk us through this rebound. a look at the five-day were you can really see, it just dropped off a cliff and quickly rebounded. that had to do with the saudis
announcing midafternoon that they were not going to tolerate this kind of decline. of course, there are a lot of saudis about the viewing their options. it is important to point out that opec's production cuts so far not able to halt the halt then plunge -- plunge in price we have been seeing. futures falling as much as 6% as mentioned intraday before turning around, but that supply surge showing there is concern about demand going forward given the-action levels we are seeing in the u.s. paul: it's quickly get to the after-hours movers. lyft exceeding estimates. what is the story? su: a couple of companies came out after hours and exceeded estimates.
set up again for a positive open on wall street. ipo, the widely followed forecasted narrower loss than expected. we did see the valley halt a bit as they announced a lockup period ending for those early holders of stocks. aig, the big insurance company. we have a number of stocks reporting after-hours, all beating estimates, and you can see rather sizable gains after-hours. paul: thanks very much for that update. to come, we are live at the samsung unpacked event on wall street. onhie: up next, a comeback wall street, but will it continue? this is bloomberg. ♪
: i'm paul-- paul allen in sydney. sophie: i'm sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. monday, we saw the biggest one-day plunged since february last year amid fears and escalation in the trade war will occur. our next guest says we should probably accept these ballots of volatility. taking a look at what happened overnight, we did have the s&p eking out a slight gain, but the moves looked to be fairly defensive. i want to pull up this chart on the terminal which indicates we did see the s&p staying within that monday range and trading just between the 100-day and 200-day moving line.
we may be just about halfway through this market rally. be very much news flow related in the news flow will be around the trade conflict. whatever we see in terms of new tweets and new news, that will definitely move the markets, not only the u.s. market, but also global markets. we are in a period that is different from the one i personally grew up in as a portfolio manager where you could make some long-term outlooks on the market. this is a market where the outlook can change within 140 characters. president trump. and that will change the earnings outlook for many companies out there, not only emerging markets, but also lower markets, so the investors will follow this. whatever the new news will be related to the trade deal will
clearly create market softness. perhapswith tariffs -- on ae of path beyond path beyond the election, want .o talk about em we're seeing valuations coming u.s.out half of their counterparts, but we are seeing this perhaps not being reflected in the earnings growth. walk us through this now. >> absolutely. , valuations have never been necessarily a reason to buy -- for em. yet the look at the potential andings growth between em other markets around the world
-- you have to look at the potential earnings growth. 2020 looks similar between the em and the u.s. and also we had a 30% valuation discount. if we had a tilt where earnings were to start updating the growth of u.s. and earnings now that tax cuts are out of the picture, that would eat a signal to see a strong outperformance of em versus the u.s. market -- that would be a signal. it all depends on what happens with the trade outlook. ,f the trade conflict continues as you say, if it actually prolongs, even if at some point we have a solution, then it will impact of -- impact the earnings of companies. they say this thesis will not work out and it looks like you will see global equity markets outperforming other asset classes, and among these, the
u.s. equity market will do best because it is considered the most defensive market and em will possibly underperform. up thiswant to bring chart on the bloomberg terminal as well. this is the emerging markets asia index. you can see thanks to the events of this week, it is now pretty much flat for the week. in terms of being exposed to volatility, is it wise to sit back on the sidelines for now? the samewise, but at time, everything could literally change within those 100 40 characters or however many you can put in a tweet nowadays. only underweight actually, imaging markets because if something changes in the outlook, given the supportive valuations and the possibility it will start having higher earnings growth, you can see these markets really start outperforming. : you say you are finding good investments in korea, which
has been pretty beaten up of late. where are you looking? >> we are looking at sectors where we feel there is strong ip. one of them obviously technology. some of the technology players, as you say, have given a good reason to buy more. years: we're seeing the losses push it down. where do you see it going from here? >> again, it will all depend on the news flow. more negative news flow on trade and do not forget korea does not only get if you want involved in the issues between china and the u.s. but also between korea and japan. japan has just taken korea off its white list for a series of specialty materials. on the newsdepend
flows. we could see more in terms of bearishness in the market, but hopefully, if we get those points solved, then given where valuations are, i think we could do significantly well. positioningare you when it comes to the i.t. space and chipmakers, given the latest developments? >> at this point with semiconductor prices where they are, we actually like the space. there is one space where we are concerned and have actually stayed away from, and those are the i.t. hardware companies that are involved in the supply chain, in the large international supply chains. betweenhappening now the u.s. and china, and a lot of companies have started to move their supply chains outside of china. obviously, there is not a place in the world where you find the same level of infrastructure. the same number of workers as
you do in china, which means supply chains outside of china will necessarily be fragmented and hence, cost of production without considering the capital expenditure that will be needed. that is an area of i.t. were we are actually quite concerned. paul: we will leave it there. thank you very much head of .undamental equities thanks for joining us. you can get a roundup of stories you need to know to get your day going on today's edition of " daybreak." it's also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize settings so you only get news from the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
sophie: this is "bloomberg technology global link." let's take a look at the top mobile tech stories of the day. emily: thank you. symantec surged on a report broadcom is nearing a deal to enterprise business. dow jones said the deal could be announced later thursday and be worth about $10 million. the agreement would come after broadcom's attempt to buy the entire symantec operation fell apart last month. the company behind the world's smartest chess robot has more than $1 billion of debt. revenue almost doubled last year, but gains were dwarfed by near $600 million losses. staff costs also nearly doubled from the previous year. the month as it has assurances it will be supported financially for at least another year. and it is a lucrative business. organizing dates. investors swipe right as sores
-- as shares of match group sort to a record. match raised its full-year forecast as quarterly revenue jumped from a year earlier. it is now on a global bench mission targeting japan, south korea, and the middle east. those are the top global tech stories we are watching. paul: thanks. samsung opens to challenge apple and huawei. is live at the march event. is it a game changer or just moving pieces further along the board? >> i would agree with the latter. it is moving pieces further along the board. it will do pretty much nothing, i think, to restore growth or put samsung smartphone growth in the hyperdrive or anything like that. it will be upgrades for people
loyal to the brand. people that like the stylus, business users, power users, etc. keep, you know, the trains running. emily: samsung had a difficult quarter. these launches, how will they impact the bottom line? >> that's a good question. my understanding is that there mobile business, those are not a big part of samsung's core business. if they sell zero of these phones, it will not crater the company or anything like that. samsung likes to push these technologies far along. because one of their core businesses is selling components to other big makers like apple, one thing that is not known by everyone as most of the screens on the iphone these days are made by samsung. paul: one of the big stories to
come out of that event is a deepening relationship between samsung and microsoft. what are they working on? >>'s partnership feels to me more like marketing and pr than anything else. there are significant new things like microsoft selling the note 10 in its resale stores, but truth be told, if you wanted office or linkedin on your smartphone anyway, you will just download it. for people it is indispensable for, they are going to use it. i do not see anything particularly game changing here. it is just about boosting the ecosystem. microsoft continues to show it is willing to play ball with pretty much anyone. paul: thanks for joining us in new york. that is "bloomberg technology lobal link."
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paul: 8:30 a.m., the market over 90 minutes away. futures open a little weaker after we saw a big intraday rally in u.s. equities. i'm paul allen in sydney. sophie: i'm sophie kamaruddin in hong kong where it is 6:30 a.m. let's get to first word news . >> oil clawback some losses after saudi arabia spoke about how to halt recent slides. prices fell to lows not seen since the start of the year and the surprise surge fueled new worries about the growing glut amid sinking demand.
meltdowneen cut in the amid stock and commodity markets after rate cuts in new zealand, india, and thailand raised fears of recession. tension is rising between nuclear neighbors pakistan and india after new delhi revoked forn decades of autonomy its kashmir state. islamabad announced a series of methods to oppose what it called india's unilateral and illegal actions including downgrading unilateral ties -- diplomatic ties and suspending trade. airways says it has fixed the computer glitch that caused the cancellation of more than 100 flights in heathrow and more thand stranded 100,000 passengers. face a airways could compensation built in excess of thoseion pounds if all affected claim under the rules. global news twitter four hours a day on air and at tictoc on
twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. paul: thanks very much. let's get over to selina wang in beijing. thanks --selina: thanks. let's take a look at the new zealand dollar facing its biggest decline since 2016. that's after the bank of new england surprised. the governor said it made no sense to hold off while this global outlook continues to worsen. the aussie dollar also fell to a 10-year low after that with speculation the rba may also all of suit in september. this is after thailand surprised cutting five basis points. india's central bank lowered its rate as well by an unconventional 35 points. we will be digging into this a bit more shortly in the show,
but crude oil futures climbed back from losses after saudi arabia contacted crude producers to discuss ways to stop that slide in prices. futures had fallen during wednesday's session after this energy information administration revealed the first rise in u.s. crude inventories since early june. paul: thanks very much. let's get more on what we should be watching us trading gets under way in asia. despite that impressive intraday turnaround in u.s. stocks, japanese futures pointing to gains, still some concerns. investors trying to figure out the latest central bank moves and what they all mean. >> that's right. i don't think we can get carried away with what happened in the u.s. last night. markets are being whipsawed around with so many factors from .hat more hawkish fed we have seen all these cuts -- dovish interest rate cuts from central banks.
while we can argue that lower are going to be supportive, i think investors and -- atg at rates if these rate cuts will be enough. trading yields fell to a record reallyd that is signaling a lot of alarm amongst investors. i think the defensive tone is likely to prevail. as investors try to figure out where they are hiding their money. we have stretch valuations, and earnings season that is definitely not great. a lot for investors to digest. sophie: with that race to the bottom one global rates, the rba
now perhaps looking to follow further easing. how do you see the rba responding to this wave of global easing? >> that's right. the aussie definitely took a tumble with the new zealand dollar yesterday. it actually went below a low we saw in january. traders have increased bets the rba will follow suit. they are pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis points cut from the rba in september. as these trade worries are , experts at central banks are beginning to do some competitive rate cuts. there are those saying perhaps that is a little bit overdone. the nextt least for month we will be seeing the aussie stay around these mid-67
level, even though pressure on the australian currency has increased. .ophie: thank you check out our gtb library for some of the charts we've been talking about on the bloomberg terminal. for more on oil, our bloomberg energy reporter joins us from denver. tell us what we learned from saudi officials a few hours ago. rebound asee crude little bit in after-hours trading after saudi arabia said it was in talks with other major producers to figure out how to halt the slide. they said all options are on the table. i think the question is -- what are those options? some members will be meeting in abu dhabi in september and i think it will be in or misleading fortune for the market as we look for signals as to cartel might do next.
paul: what can opec and its allies realistically do to halt the slide? >> right, that is the question. one obvious solution is to cut production which opec has been doing all year long with saudi arabia really taking the brunt of those cuts. in think that thinking now is that this quarter is really to drinkt, best chance global inventories before demand softens. canthe question is how long this go on before u.s. shale production ramps up. he had the saudi's talking about how we could halt the price slide. seewhile, in the u.s., we supplies rising and we saw supplies rising to another near record high.
was a surprise increase that fed into market movements. what does that say? >> numbers today surprised at all levels of expectation. i think this is a statement about oil demand. demand for gasoline and diesel last year went down. i think it raises a lot of questions about the health of the economy and with rate cuts happening all across the globe, i think fears about a global recession are really mounting. i think those will keep weighing on the market, especially to the extent that they affect oil demand. paul: thanks very much for joining us. up next, we will be joined by a china expert to discuss the future of trade talks in beijing's relation with hong kong. this is bloomberg. .
sophie: china is adding to its reserves as currency policy gets dragged into the trade war with the u.s. suspense holdings for eight straight months in july as we see china did in for the long haul. certainly a lot to consider when it comes to relations between the u.s. and china. paul: indeed. for more on that, let's get to our next guest, a longtime advisor to china's leaders and multinational corporations. he received china's highest award from president xi jinping last year. he is also the author of "how hinese leaders think." in this environment of escalating trade and potentially currency wars and diplomacy by tweed, how will china's leaders be inking right now?
>> they are in it for the long haul. unfortunately, this has gone way beyond trade. it is technology, currency. it is somewhat paranoid thinking in both places as we see nationalism rising. the temperature of nationalism is always negative on rational approaches. the economy of both countries are affected, as is the world. one hopes that rational voices will prevail. we have unfortunately in both countries -- media has become somewhat shrill. puttingresident trump additional tariffs, putting china in a very awkward position. the irony is that we were very close to a deal of until may. both sides said about 90% of the issues were pretty much resolved. chinese economists actually like
some of the pressures the u.s. was putting, making china do what it needs to do. the irony is that china would benefit in the long run better with the various provisions. the problem came about because the u.s. insisted on various kinds of strict enforcement rules, which were actually insulting if they would be made public, and of course, everything becomes public. one would hope there are rational approaches to the issues because there are, and that diplomatic structures can be put together that give both sides the dignity and face-saving -- aspects they need. paul: the face-saving is often underestimated. has no elections, it is a
command economy. it has less to lose, and of a very oldis civilization compared to the united states. perhaps the thinking is they will just dig in and out last. >> china has a lot to do in its own markets. one needs to look at the issues in china. they need to restructure the economy. they need to transform the level, to a high eliminate pollution. what is underappreciated, the significance china has put on its anti-poverty campaign. president xi jinping says it is the most important thing he does. he spends more time on it than anything else, and it's really quite remarkable. china brought 700 people or more out of poverty and since 2012, 100 million people were subject to what is called targeted poverty alleviation because these people, no matter how much economic development would occur
, would be left behind. they are in remote, mountainous villages with little or no education. targeted legislation has focused on every single poor family with a specific plan to bring them out of poverty. is focused on that. that's what they want to do in china. build their economy, increase the standard of living, bring people out of extreme poverty. of course, they are still poor and much needs to occur. china is not trying to do some long-term fight, but they cannot of their in the as public. the chinese people are a very proud people, as most people are. china, because of its long history of a century of oppression and invasion and humiliation has maybe an extra pride that it has deservedly built over this period of time, so we need to be sensitive. when people in china is going to take over the world, i have not
met anyone in china in 30 years who either thinks that or desires that. people laugh in china when you say people think china is going to take over the world. they say we have so many problems at home we have to deal with. what i am most concerned about is mutual self-fulfilling prophecies where what the other side does reinforces what you think and it becomes a vicious cycle. we have to break that cycle. sophie: china hoping to be a .ioneer in 5g what do you make of the potential decoupling of the u.s. and china? >> everybody loses. when each site contributes what it does, everybody benefits, particularly in technology where shared knowledge and
amplification of each other. good competition is terrific, but decoupling is not. everybody will suffer in that process. technology should not be a competition. it should be a market competition to lift all standards of living and that is what everyone wants to do. onna is very much focused science and technology. you see when china has its biannual meeting of the chinese academy of sciences and engineering, which are their top every, president xi and member of the standing committee, which is the highest authoritative body in china, comes to those meetings. science and technology is highly china as a very high status symbol. the country wants to develop its science and technology. in many areasd but catching up rapidly.
there was a study done of 180 different technologies in the world. china was number one in about 25 of them as of a year ago. u.s. was about 80, but china was catching up. that is good for the world because everybody will benefit from increasing technologies. if we could turn our attention to the protest in hong kong, china responding showing positions are hardening after weeks of a rally. top agency china's ruled out an inquiry into the unrest. where do you see things going from here? >> when he to stop by finding out why china things hong kong is so important. i have five reasons. the first economic reason is hong kong has been the vehicle by which china has enabled foreign companies to do business in china. that is less important today with the rise of shanghai and shenzhen and other cities in china, but what is very
important is what is called the one donald hong kong macau greater area, a coordinated development plan, and it is the mechanism by which china will transform its economy. the one in guangdong is the biggest. its gdp is headed toward $2 trillion, projected to be three point $6 trillion by 2030. it is a must in the top 10. if it were an independent country. it is extremely important for china's economic transformation. politically, it is the one country, two systems put in place that is the vehicle for hong kong to prosper and it is what china would like in the future to apply to taiwan. two other political reasons, hong kong is the symbol of china 's resuscitation and revival after the century of oppression
and humiliation and, finally, it is the symbol to the world of chinese leadership and governance. all of these reasons make hong kong very important. china will do everything possible to give the local government total authority. will not intervene in any way. recognizing that there are three red lines that cannot be broached. towardno movement independence or quasi-independence. second, hong kong cannot be used as a base to undermine the political system of the country, is, finally, if there unending chaos, that will undermine the economy of hong kong, so if any of those three that the local government cannot handle, china will have to up the ante. we are seeing some of that in rhetoric now. we will see what happens on the ground. sophie: thank you for your insights. as the u.s.-china trade war runs
goldchina is grabbing more for its reserve. our china correspondent joins us from beijing. how much gold has beijing amassed now? >> they added 10 tons in july. bear in mind that between december and june of this year, they added 84 tons. in total up until this point, you have 94 tons. seen as been -- has gradual increase since december. economists say this is likely to continue, and china is doing this to diversify their reserve away from the u.s. dollar. economists expect it to continue at a gradual pace, and it comes as gold tops out $1500 an ounce level, the highest price for gold since 2013. the latest numbers for july came out yesterday afternoon beijing time. fx reserves in china 3.1 trillion u.s. dollars, so
slightly down from the june number of $3.12 trillion. they have reduced just gradually. it does not seem that there has been intervention. outflows have been relatively balanced, but we are going to keep a close eye on this going forward because it's one lever they could reach for if this depreciation -- if they lose control of that depreciation, they could reach for reserves and provide some kind of support, but for now, a gradual decrease in reserves. paul: something else we will be keeping a close eye on. china publishing trade data a little later on. hard to overstate the importance. >> absolutely. they expect exports to drop again. note the price in july, 1% year on year. imports, they are
expected to fall almost 9% after falling about 7.3 percent in june. in terms of the trade surplus, you looking at a slightly stronger trade surplus. of course, trade war is a big part of this, as his external demand, so we will be furloughed -- firmly focused on those trade numbers out later today in beijing. paul: china correspondent tom mackenzie in beijing, thanks very much. more to come on "daybreak australia." this is bloomberg. ♪
impressive two-year slump. we are really seeing the uptick convertershave had to a few factors, namely interest rate cuts. are looking a lot more diverse. credit access has improved as well. are really making the uptick a lot more noticeable . sophie: how is that playing out in the markets and what are those factors? >> i spoke to a lot of people that were really curious to see what would happen with the prices. well exceeded reserves. i spoke to the real estate agent who told me about six months ago a property around the corner from the one that i was sending out had one registered bidder.
to put that in perspective, the option i went to had about 100 room only.nding people are getting quite excited. the bureau of statistics released data yesterday showing that for june, there has been the first uptick in loans to people wanting to buy property. paul: the slowdown barely puts a .ent in the huge run-up we saw are looking at another boom in sydney? early tok it is too say. we basically have a modest uptick. sydney prices, when they had up, they will sort of pull the rest of the country. they were the biggest to fall as well during the slump. paul: thanks very much for joining us. ahead in thetill next hour on "daybreak asia."
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♪ under an hour away from the australian market open. sophie: we are also counting down to the opening south korea and japan. i'm selina wang in beijing. welcome to "daybreak: asia." paul: our top stories this thursday. recession wools's and bears. wall street terms -- wall street turns more optimistic.