tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 12, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
trying to compete with each other with different rate cuts. there you have the closing bell, another day of losses. about anr session lows hour ago. we have made our way off those but not closing near the highs of the day. caroline: so many had went, -- headwinds, political, commodity driven with corn being a key concern. mark: i'm glad you -- joe: i'm glad you brought up corn. worst day on the corn futures since 2013. scarlet: on the dow, the only candor is johnson & johnson. joe: let's dive into the action. 500, a second&p
down day in a row. let's look at the chart we have been watching. below its 100 day moving average. moving had 200 day average and blue. tendency to drop back down during the volatility of last year, in the fourth quarter, well below the 200 day moving average. low -- bitittle bit below the 200 day. you can also make, from another pattern, the case that the s&p 500 is confirmed to drop even 2600. possibly toward sarah: i've been focusing on the financials. today, they were once again the worst performing area of the
market. all but two members of the s&p financial sector were in the red yields lower and yield curves flattened across the board. pularu look at xlf, a po exchange-traded fund that tracks the second, we have -- the sector, we have seen outflows. if you add this for last week, $2 billion. that is the worst single week outflow since 2008. thank you so much. malik and us is saira luke kawa. sarah piggyback off what was just talking about is it
really signaling the process of they signalsr are of global momentum? the yield think about curve historically, when it inverts, a recession about 14 months from now. we've seen this yield curve convert a few times before. date is so mixed. we do think it is a real issue. peoplee you hearing more confidently say they are seeing a recession or at least proved odds -- improved odds? luke: yes, across the board you hear that recession risks are rising. what are bond yields reflecting?
worries about the u.s. in recession or global factors? both. the main thing is that consumer remains in fine shape and that is why people are bullish on the economy. caroline: how important are the retailers about to come out? consumer is the u.s. that has been driving this recession. -- i mean, this economic expansion for it to continue. we think it has been holding down capital spending and some things needed to continue. as long as the consumer can hold, that will give us more time before we go into this typical recessionary scenario. joe: is there any prospect in your view, maybe a trade
agreement, equity downside the u.s.? thea: our view is that tariffs will last into the election. we think the issue will continue for quite a while and continue to be an overhang for the market. you mentioned that you want to be exposed to companies less dependent on global growth. in? sectors would those be or is it really about individual companies? saira: you are looking for companies have their own lever stumble. long growthth a tale went, -- growth tailwind,
like health care. across the board, it tends to favor defensive growth sectors like health care and consumer staples, but you can find them in any kind of industry company has their own internal thing going on. caroline: what is the next shoe to drop this week? data, earnings? luke: i think inflation could be oneresting i doubt any inflation report will change the likely course. schedule, ion the keep my eyes open for an unscheduled fed appearance. that is fairly unique in economic data is surprising to the upside. we saw the credit data wasn't as
strong, so i would be looking to see if that starts to follow the real economy. scarlet: china could always and add more always add -- stimulus as well. caroline: great to have you. a bit of an executive shakeup. froms hiring brian newman pepsico to be appointed the new cfo. he will join the management committee and seniormost leadership team. 0.6%. ups has- of course, been in the headwinds of technological change and trade issues. scarlet: not to mention
macri. deepeningng, the political crisis risks becoming a significant economic one. argentina isrisk, at a crossroad. tumbledtry's assets today after a popular opposition candidate beat president macri. presidentard from the he took to the airwaves and he seems to be understanding the market reaction and promising economic reforms, but what would they be? >> we know so far that they are standing by their current policies. the economic name is working on new measures. we still don't know what those are.
we are servicing the market today to contain the volatility in the spot rate. our? 's over what will happen over the next few months as we gear up for election which will be in october. fernandez very lately be the winner. -- could very likely be the winner. the i saw a stat that dollar-denominated loss in the stock, the second worst anywhere in the last several decades. how about the reaction on the street, especially the situation in the early 2000 fresh on people's mind? thing that issues angert there is a lot of
on the streets. narrowing,deficit is they are just not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt be of government spending, subsidized transport that is what they are betting on. theourse, a weakening exchange rate concerns men on the street, business owners, anyone who needs to know the value to make transactions. all right, carolina millan, joining us today. ofare joined by jim, head emerging-market debt at schroders. we talk about the move in the dollar, the 40% plunge in maine stock index, then the bond
market. macri'st here is that policies weren't enough to soothe the public. as a new restriction -- how does a new administration generate what macri did wrong? no quick fix.s macri made a lot of improvements that he might not get credit for. program gote imf off to a good start. currency looked better, inflation numbers looked better, and the market was assuming that would lead to gains for macri in this election. that is why you got, in an illiquid market, a shocked reaction. caroline: fernandez, if he wins,
reaction?e james: he needs to come out and give some soothing signals to the market. if you are thinking of buying and selling, take a look at incentives. there is no incentive for fernandez to stoke the fires of the market, tell them it is all macri's fault. he needs to come in, meet with his advisor, go from there. there is certainly some flexibility on the part of the imf. they don't want to see thing go any farther south than they have. ive to getn incent things moving, get things
stabilized. if you think the sort of calculus on the likely part of the next president is to tamp things down -- crazy here is a statistic. agreement,f argentine debt is covered through 2020. you have bonds the yield the -- bonds a year beyond that yielding 16%. if fernandez comes into office, engages with the imf. romaine: so between now and october, what sort of steps can the government take to stabilize the currency and keep things in check before we get a sense of what the new government will do?
james: there is a small, negligible, but real chance that can convince the population that this is a sneak preview of what will happen under fernandez. populoustroduce more -- more populist measures. that can't help fundamental economic numbers between now and october, but it can help him in the polls. i very quickly ask how the polls got it so wrong and are you in shock that you are on the wrong side of this? ises: that is what everyone
scratching their heads about today. the researchers on wall street don't have a good explanation. i think there was built-in resentment over macri that he did turn -- that he did not turn things around center. romaine: that is jim barrineau, head of emerging-market debt at schroders. says the ceo will step down and be replaced by david gibbs. we will bring you more information on this as we get it . it: coming up, to italy, why no-confidence vote is being delayed.
turmoil initical italy intensifies, the italian senate is delaying a no-confidence vote. alessandro in joining us from rome over the phone. what is the state of play in terms of the prospect of this government coming down and another election? >> it is probable still. salvini iswriting -- riding high in the polls. his government parliament only has 17%.
votes toind enough bring down the government which , then supported last week have the president dissolved parliament and call for election in october. romaine: how much do we know in regards to how much support sa thei has within the leak -- league? salvini has a very strong control of the league. there is relatively no infighting into league. when he took over, the league was a fledgling party and only in the northern part of the country. party, ita national
win election -- it can elections alone, something that happened-- that hasn't in italy for years. he was taking photographs on the beach. what he wasbout looking to do compared to other parties against. the five-star coalition teaming up with the centerleft party, is that doomed to failure? salvini is trying to project this image like an
everyman, he is like them. sea, likes go in the to have a beer, goes to parties, opless, just goes to the beach and has a good time. that is why italians identify muchhim and he is very anti-immigration, his number one message. caroline: that seems to be a theme throughout europe at the moment. viacom weres and lower today. bloomberg has learned that the ratios being discussed would value viacom at current levels. the ceo would be the leader of viacom. a canadian company said a second ontario facility breached
regulations. they had already been struggling from breaches in ontario. the national football league has taken its first major step in legal sports gambling it signed a partnership with sports radar. now, the company will have a right to distribute to the u.s. that is your business flash of. ate.lash upd romaine: let's go back to some breaking news. named a new ceo. david gibbs is going to be the new ceo, to replace greg creed. create has been there since -- creed has been with the company since 2015.
gibbs is pretty much a lifer here. here at oneadership of the bigger fast food companies. caroline: ups is reaching for new blood, changing their cfo. they have brought in someone from outside, from pepsico. ryan newman will be appointed as ceo. crosswinds, all the winds for a company like ups. caroline: saudi aramco, no surprises after the earnings. oil aheading price of of a initial public offering. this is bloomberg. ♪
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groupsmmigrant rights are criticizing the trump administration's new rules that cards tovide green immigrants if -- could deny green cards to immigrants if they use food stamps or medicaid. >> throughout our history, self-reliance has been a core principle in america. the virtues of hard work and d thesufficiency lai groundwork of our nation. mark: although outlined today, the new rules are not scheduled to take effect until october.
the president has not decided when to unveil his administration's middle east peace plan. jared kushner has been drafting a proposal for the last two years. that thet said today u.s. isn't looking for regime change with the palestinian authority but that the united states would continue to avoid any dealings with hamas. attorney general william barr is ofcussing the weekend death jeffrey epstein. epstein was found dead in his cell where he was awaiting trial on charges in new york city. appalled and, indeed, the whole department was, and angry, to learn of the mcc's
failure to adequately secure this prisoner. we are now learning of certain irregularities at this facility that are deeply concerning. made attorney general barr his comments at a law enforcement conference in new orleans. he added that the case is far from over and those that may have conspired with epstein should -- the governor of puerto rico says education will be a major focus of her administration. in one of her first move says governor, baskets announced -- isernor, vazquez says she restoring a contract for the power grid that was destroyed by hurricane maria nearly two years ago.
global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: the world's largest oil producer got through its first-ever earnings call with no feathers ruffled. aramcorabia -- saudi andutives discussed the ipo plans. >> i can attest that the company is ready for an ipo. the timing of the ipo will be determined by our shareholders or the owner of the company. editore: joining us, the for coverage in the americas. >> everyone talks about a great quarter. it was a great 30 minutes. not that much information. in that response, you learn what
everybody knows, than an ipo is coming. the question is when. they have no plans to tap into the international debt market this year. obviously, we saw a huge response. they are not going to go in and capitalize on, at least for the rest of 20. they will increase the capacity of the east-west pipeline. that is a crucial outlet for avoiding the strait of hormuz. they also talked about the company being ready for an ipo but not necessarily giving the timing. joe: could it not happen again, like last time? tina: of course. joe: do we know where they are likely to list it?
tina: no. forth,s been a back and wanting to avoid u.s. markets because of transparency issues. this is given a little bit more insight into how they operate, showing where they spend their money and how. romaine: we also got inside it to them trying to broaden it out a little bit. tina: this was announced 10 minutes before the emco earnings drop. this is about a $15 billion deal. this would create a joint venture between reliance, the indian conglomerate, and saudi aramco. in withthis gets them their customer.
reliance, it helps them pay down their debt and maybe expand facilities. joe: turning to something completely different, what's up with corn? tina: corn had a horrible day today. acreage out how much had been planted this season and the market did not believe those numbers. what the usda did was unprecedented. they said, we are going to re-survey. maybe we have got the numbers from. that is what they put out today. neardid not trim anywhere what the market thought they would. joe: brutal day for corn. making public for its ipo,
bloomberg. the company is looking to raise $3.5 million which would make it the second largest u.s. ipo this year. i can't wait for the wework n umbers. company is so controversial, so complicated, people have different opinions. what will you look for when the full filing does it? >> evaluation. in the private market, it is a tech company. it is a real estate company. what are they going to do in terms of pricing it? a real estate model where you have companies that are profitable and paying dividends, or will it be tech company? romaine: end of july, they had the analyst event.
caroline: quinoa and beer. romaine: most of the analysts were in that tech space. then i heard some of the real estate analysts kind of protested. jeffrey: he wants a tech multiple. he wants tech analysts, tech investors. if it is valued as a real estate company, he's not going to get the multiple he has in the private market. caroline: they burned through more than they made. they are also trying to raise debt. how are they putting this money to work to convince everyone this is a good deal? that to they need all leases, new new
revenue. it is a continual revenue build model. the question on whether they can think the -- whether they can make the ipo work is the question. now the equity market is a little bit of a risk so who knows how long that lasts. it toow problematic is banknto yet another soft backed. jeffrey: it doesn't give you the warm and fuzzies. if you were going to put a multiple, it is lower than it was. romaine: do we have any idea of what the liquidation will be by softbank. -- tend to ftbank like holds after the company
her steak in the company since last thursday. facebook is helping fund an indian start of that wants to bring more commerce social networks, like facebook. facebook is taking part in a $125 million funding round. firm has a new name. the departure of the founder and recent problems. moneyors have pulled since 2013 after the firm disclosed it was the target of a bribery operation. romaine: gold value continues to shine amid global uncertainty and money managers are going all
in. with more, bloomberg money reporter justine of ascus. quez.stina vaz others saying they see this as $1600 down the road. this data came out friday, showing this multiyear high in hedge fund position. it was showing, even versus those shorts, those that are bullish on gold outweigh the shorts. joe: i wonder the underlying theory. dalio was saying it is a good time. the managers, why are they saying it is a good time? justina: part of it is the idea
that the economy is starting to slow down. the fed and central banks have been decreasing their interest rate. a lot of that is bullish for gold because there is an opportunity cost. the dollar versus some of the other asset classes that don't have as high interest rates. some of it is geopolitics. some of it is this currency war, with trump: china a currency -- with trump calling china a currency manipulator. caroline: our people getting into it? etf's seem to be plentiful. fewina: there've been a etf's recently that have seen some multiyear highs.
a 10d about one that hit year high. i always mix up the f and ph. it is one of the ones that recently hit a high. another example of retail and institutional investors getting into gold. romaine: does this mean that gold bugs are not pranks anymore? more?t cranks any joe: i finally see. romaine: thank you for joining us. turning from gold to another haven asset, cryptocurrency. china wants in. the people's bank of china is said to be close to issuing its own cryptocurrency, especially working since facebook's libra was unannounced. i could see why someone wants to
buy cryptocurrency. why i would buy a chinese cryptocurrency. joe: i'm going to bed that never sees the -- to bet that never sees the light of day. caroline: this is the antithesis of decentralized. they want to see what you are spending more. joe: they have those apps where if you read and learn about xi jinping's ideology, you get credits. maybe it will automatically for doingypto-yuan good things online. caroline: time for a look at what stories are going to be trending across the bloomberg dollars -- the bloomberg universe. a junior analyst charged with insider trading only a year after being at stern school of
business. the private equity firm serious capital group will acquire a digital printing company, electronics. a story on huawei's founder intending to overhaul the technology giant, creating an iron army. major structural shifts are around the corner. tictoc on twitter reported that the demand for u.s. air travel is booming. increase from 2013. airline executives are crediting airlines,ights, more and millennial travelers. you can follow all the stories on your terminal, bloomberg.com, and at tictoc on twitter.
now, to asia ahead. the hong kong airport is reopening after being effectively shut down by protests. all flights were canceled, marking the biggest disruption to the economy since those demonstrations began in june. four straight days, protesters occupied the airport. slowly the airport getting back to normal. for the most part, protesters have called it a night. this is something we have never seen before, where we saw up to
4000 demonstrators packed through the arrival halls, departure halls upstairs. it ultimately led to multiple flights being canceled monday evening and afternoon. we are seeing some of these and setcome back online to come off tuesday morning. hecticd be a bit of a one. flights to hong kong could still be canceled on tuesday. what was interesting in the latest development was the police presence, or the lack of it. there were no officers who showed up to disperse these crowds. perhaps police taking a little bit more of a cautious response after another violent weekend. both sides hardening their stance in this recent escalation. beijing also ramping up the
rhetoric, saying serious crimes are being committed by protesters. all eyes now on carrie lam as she meets with reporters tuesday morning. caroline: yvonne man about 2:00 or 3:00 in the morning local time, so we thank her for it. we might start to see some flights taking off soon but what is the economic damage? shery: second quarter hong kong gdp contracting. if this unrest continues, we could potentially see a technical recession. ,e are talking about tourism retail sales getting hit. how long is this going to go on? what is the latest? shery: we have seen the chief executive, carrie lam, come out
and talk about full measures needed. this has been going on for a couple of months. it is the 10th week of consecutive protest. beijing is not backing down. seen some have businesses caught in the crossfire. ,ersailles gee, for example that t-shirt. caroline: serious faux pas. shery: it listed hong kong as being part of its own country. chinese celebrities coming out. dropped example, she the contract with for saatchi. -- with versace. romaine: one thing that is interesting is that we are starting to hear from a lot of
prominent business people, speaking out. wu.y: peter they are really caught between a rock and a hard place. they have businesses in hong kong that depend very heavily on business with china. saying out in a column going against the extradition bill was a victory. the big tree of this movement. he is not wrong. this started as the extradition bill and protesters are going against it to something fundamentally bigger here. he was more focused on the violence by protesters more than the hong kong police. caroline: what is interesting, perhaps not music to the protesters years, the real estate billionaire is able to
preach this. half the problem is the lack of real estate in hong kong. shery: this has been going on for years. when i was covering the umbrella movement, students were talking about how they can't afford housing because the prices are soaring. perhaps, there is so that thes right now rent could come down. caroline: great point. silverlining amid plenty of clouds. for more on these stories, don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak: asia. cpi numbers for july come out. joe: i will be watching tilray, the cannabis company reporting earnings after the bell. romaine: real real, the company releases first results since