tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg August 20, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
european trading day. from london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. in: just another quiet day august, nothing going on, nothing to see in these markets. that ain't happening. once again, big move in european assets in the last hour. we had things happening here as well. i will start off with italy. the government is done, we don't know what is coming next. the italian 10-year yields -- they drop. to sort this out with scott thiel from blackrock in a moment. here is the anomaly. italian banks, which normally benefit when we see yields compressing with germany, that ain't happening either. so you have italian banks trading lower on this story, which is low as well. that means the stocks are going down. you have unicredit, one of the
big banks in italy, trading down at 1.70 5%. angela merkel indicating there may be practical steps to try to involve -- to resolve the brexit impasse. spike in the pound. we are kind of back, but we are still north of 1.21, which is what we are paying attention to. we have retraced a little bit of that, but not all of that. the pound is higher and it is higher, higher than 121 -- 1.21. guy: -- not backingffs are the home depot bottom line just yet. retailing home up more thanndex, 1%. home depot up more than four percent right now. the s&p 500 is down 2%, but
sentiment is not hugely shifting one way or another. the 10-year yield, 1.56%, a little flight to safety, and crude oil futures before inventories and the eia report, 1.2% lower. guy: let's talk about what is happening in rome. the political drama once again. being generated by that country per the italian 10 year yield, the btp's, as you can see, yields going lower. prices going higher. what has happened is, conte is going to see the president. in a speech before the senate in rome, conte sharply criticized right, basically burning their relationship to the ground, calling his decision to solve this political crisis irresponsible and motivated by personal ambition. joining us now, scott thiel,
blackrock's chief fixed income strategist. scott, kind of a weird reaction. good afternoon, by the way. scott: good afternoon. rise, yieldsices come lower. maybe we get a five-star pd alliance. that looks inherently unstable. why are we getting this kind of positive reaction? scott: i think the qe background is very favorable and we have seen that in the reaction and generally with the yield -- what it means is that anything that pushes back, kind of any political activity between now and october, the budget, will allow the qe to be what investors think about. this is i gigantic -- this is a gigantic move into ours. extraordinary for something that gives you only 1.3% yield. the reality is that investors
are so keen on trying to capture the last bit. look for yields are in europe -- they are negatively basically across -- german yields are entirely negative. if you push back the political risk in any form, you are talking about pretty heavy carry for european investors over the medium-term, particularly with the ecb. guy: and presuming it is a liquid market that is easy to get in and out of, this is not going to get tressa -- 10-year yield in italy is trading within 20, 25 basis points of the 10 year yield in the united states. i'll distorted are these markets, scott? scott: in the u.s., there has been a surge. since the middle of july, the 10-year treasury, over the last couple of days there has been some res respite, the yield cure
is flatter because the front end is being held by the expectations around monetary policy. a lot of this has to do with factors that are time-now relevant. we talk about is there a concept of a recession being priced in. there is a particular factor that is driving rates in the u.s., particularly lower. the ecb is one of them. if we look at investor that can partunds or treasuries, of the reason investors buy risk-free bonds, it provides a hedge for risk-free assets. this month, 10-year treasuries have performed twice as well as 10-year bunds. europe, theylow in are primitive in terms of how rates can rally -- of how bune can rall -- about how bunds can rally. -- bostonston said
fed president was speaking with kathleen hays, and he pushed back against the idea that the needs lower rates. are likely to have a second half of the year that is much closer to 2% growth. when we have low unemployment, low inflation, unless that changes -- and it may change -- i do not see a lot of need to take action. vonnie: so to percent growth, scott. can we get there? so 2% growth, scott, can we get there? scott: when you look at a consumer, which is a big part of the u.s. economy, the consumer looks very positive. positive job growth, positive earnings. you have low financing rates. so the consumer part of the u.s. economy looks to be very strong. but i think his comments are
another reason why we are seeing this flattening in the yield curve, another reason we are seeing this drive down in rates. it seems to be at the fed a mix between those who want more aggressive policy cutting and those that want less. what happens then is the market assumes the fed cannot get ahead of the curve in terms of easing, which drives longer rates lower and keeps that kind of front end pegged because they are not certain how much easing can be delivered. i think those debates they are having at the fed, which are also contribute into this flattening of the curve. guy: i think the diversions of the fomc is something people will pick up on. message that maybe he can deliver. in theuild up the risks markets, treasuries versus bunds. tomorrow we get a 30 year, the results of a 30 year auction in germany. this is crazy, crazy space now.
but the market kind of continues to drive in one direction. there is one way risk right now. scott: the couple -- there are a couple things to keep in mind. first, investors who finance these decisions, there is still carry. it sounds ridiculous. for an investor that is going to , there isnd positive carry. if you look at a 0% 30 year bond -- the amount of interest rate risk and that bond is much greater. are going coupon, you to lose about 14 points. for a 0% coupon, you are going to lose 26 points. it is a materially more risky asset to own a zero coupon because you do not get the benefit of that coupon every two. there is a lot of risk building
up in the markets. period.at coupon every there is a lot of risk building up in the markets. guy: i am wondering what could form that. scott: obviously any shift away from the monetary policy instruments that are interest rate based -- that is qe, that is rate cuts, forward guidance -- the ones that are being prevalent in the market. any shift away from that to a different form of fiscal spending or some kind of money injection into the economy without a component of that being present could have a very potentially important effect because we know that introducing money directly into the economy -- look at the tax cuts we saw with trump, it feeds into consumer activity. fiscal spending, although it clearly has some limitations, if we moved away from monetary policy that we have experienced into something more direct injecting, you could see higher
rates. the fiscalnder where policy comes, and then you get that injection and people are talking about that helicopter money stuff. that had in the past generated inflation, quite a lot of it. scott thiel, blackrock chief fixed income strategist. he will stay here on bloomberg. vonnie: talks in the last day or two of the white house preparing a payroll tax cut idea, although the white house is dismissing that publicly at least. we are seeing volatility. the dow is down until a moment ago, higher now. some stocks are moving higher. home depot up 4.5%. by a&p 500 still lower point and a half. the nasdaq is also liar. -- the nasdaq is also higher. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy from london, i am johnson. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. regulators have wrapped up a top goal, unveiling a long-awaited overhaul of the volcker rule. the changes are giving lenders a much better picture of what trades are prohibited. italy's prime minister, giuseppe conti, is resigning today. he told lawmakers that deputy prime minister matteo sal vini's irresponsible rebellion means the government can continue. his call was blasted. he may try to put together another coalition government.
rebuffedean union has boris johnson's attempts to renegotiate the brexit deal. backstop -- the british prime minister wanted scrapped. the u.k. is on course to leave the e.u. october 31, without the safety net of the deal. in hong kong, protesters have rejected chief executive carrie lam's attempt to meet one of their demands. short of what demonstrators have demanded. it still indicates a softening in her cap. -- in her camp. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am courtneytries, donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. that's get a check on global markets. here is abigail doolittle. 500 downthe s&p fractionally moments ago, now up fractionally, recovering from
modest losses on the day, and in the wake of a big rebound valley from -- the wake of a big rebound volley last week. the shanghai composite in china finished down just slightly. again, lots of small moves, investors not quite sure. interestingly, we have emerging markets up for a third day in a row, .3%. we take a look at a 20-day chart, we will see this has not been the trend more recently. this was the longest losing streak for the emerging markets since 2015, over the same period . all the macro uncertainty is pressuring stocks recently, whether it is the fed or tray concerns or slowing -- or trade concerns, or slowing economic growth, really showing here. if we take a look at global bonds, not surprisingly, the big rally continues on. take a look at this, we have the 10-year down five basis points. this is a concern for
the emerging markets, that is far out on the wrist continuum, but typically they respond well to liquidity. some of those emerging-market investors are thinking perhaps about the global economic slowdown. as for what is moving in the u.s., sector wise we are going to the bloomberg and look at the i mavs. ps.the i ma much ofally not having an influence surprisingly. let's took a look at some of the winners and the laggards. the best sector and they were sector, consumer discretionary being helped out by home depot and lowe's. the second half is perhaps promising, and then to the downside, the material space really under pressure, perhaps in line with some of the industrial metals. vonnie: abigail, thank you for that. we are back now with scott thiel, like rock posture chief
fixed income strategist. chief fixed's income strategist we were getting reports that president trump was talking about looking at a payroll tax cut, or at least preparing for it, but the white house has said publicly that is not in the cards. the fed is calling the -- the president is calling for the fed to drop by 100 basis points. on the other hand, we are looking at a payroll tax cut. does that signify potential trouble down the line for the u.s. economy? scott: i think the idea about monetary policy has clearly helps the growth picture in the u.s., but it has not been able to push inflation to target. that is the goal that the central bank community is working toward. i think they are onto something, which is the combination of fiscal spending and monetary policy. the coordination of that is something we could be -- that could be very interesting as a way to get more targeted economic growth that leads to
inflation as opposed to kind of continuing this interest rate channel, which is pushing rates lower, which does not seem to have more of an impact on in the inflation profile. vonnie: are you or would you ever game out the idea on a payroll tax cut under this president? scott: again, i think if we look at the employment picture in the u.s., that is not an area where there is a tremendous amount of weakness. average hourly earnings have been steadily rising and continue to do so. that iser rates, particularly helpful with individuals that are financing, whether it is credit card debt or houses or autos. and you have an at record lows. so obviously, i understand he is trying to stimulate the economy by putting money in peoples pockets, and that obviously does work. we need to look at, in a
thoughtful way, trying to effectively introduce more inflation and introduce more growth at the same time. guy: can i get your quick thoughts on what is happening in the current markets right now? money is flying, look at the positive yield. the dollar is going up. u.s. credit is having a sensational year. risk-adjusted, i cannot remember the last time we saw this kind of performance. i want to come back to the risks associated with this. how much longer can a rise like we have seen thus far this year carry on? how good a year could this be? scott: the numbers are outstanding. you have more than a 9% return in the u.s. ig space, -- in the investors looknd at this as a positive environment for fixed income. to central banks are easing stretch out the economic cycle.
you have growth slowing, but it is not collapsing. ae market is taking pessimistic view about future economic growth, but the growth in front of us looks relatively positive. that is a sweet spot for investors in ig. what we get the ig market to think about that would be a change in the underlying base rate view. if economic growth were so strong and inflation were to be a problem that monetary policy would have in a traditional cycle, that is not where we are. we are not there. the reality is that in that environment, ig looks very attractive. guy: talk about the dollar. enormousng factor is at the moment. so the question, will hedged global yielding bonds outperform t-bills unhedged? it depends on where you're sitting because you have to
figure out -- i am kind of curious about -- i am kind of curious about the hedging story. the interest rate differential, without looking into the forward market, if you have a -- the rate that you earn will define the carry of that instrument. as we think about monetary policy as it shifts, it matters as to how much rates could get cut in the u.s. and how much they could get cut in europe there given where we are in the cycle, given the monetary policy view that is pervasive across the central bank community, i don't know you will get that much incremental drop in one versus the other. the long and short of it is that unfortunately for european investors, they are stuck with the grim reality that they get very negative real if you buy -- without taking that currency risk, it will be hard to represent a treasury yield
the biggest standalone medicine countries. -- elanco -- bloomberg has learned that selected advisors on the ipo. aramco is expected to favor advisors that have a relationship with the company. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. that's check-in with markets now. we have seen some volatility around the major indices. they are lower now. the s&p 500 is down .1%. is fix is under 7 -- the vix under 17 now. the 10 year yield in the u.s. at 1.55. gold futures are holding about
$1500 an ounce. ,hey are testing the level low and debbie ti crude is just below $56 a barrel. looks the same down here in terms of the story. the ftse 100 is getting knocked around by a stronger pound this afternoon. the mining sector is also weak. markets the focus of attention per the italian market was down .9%. it is the banks that are under pressure, which is interesting because etp's are having a relatively good day. the european close is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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markets are actually suffering a little more than most. , andanks are trading low it's a negative day. it started off feeling quite flat, and the asian session was mildly positive. by the afternoon things change, the ftse is down by .9%. the dax down by half of 1%, and the other thing to bear in mind is that it is still august, despite all the gyrations in the market, and the craziness we are1%, seeing, it s still a light market. on most of these european markets today. -- is why we are seeing think you need to take some of these moves and put them into context of what you are seeing. the bond market moves are massive, but be aware of what's happening with the volume story.
you can see that on the bloomberg. you can make out those two lines there, the white line is where the volume is today, below where we would normally be. let's take a look at the single stocks, there are not a lot of people trading them because they are going by the etf, but some single stocks are worth paying attention to. bhp billiton is one of the -- the hp bulletin is one of them. actuallyiners are acting as a drag on what's happening in europe. that's a look at the european close. vonnie: in the u.s., there is a bit of a drag. but let's look at where yields 1.56, and wear at still have 5.5 basis points. it's a long way further down than where we were a couple of weeks ago.
but these days it is elevated. crude oil is elevated and the vix is below 17, but you would not think so. we see a lot of volatility in the s&p 500, dow, and nasdaq. let's take a look at some of the sectors that are performing in the s&p 500. ups is the best performer, 4.2%, this on the back of home espot earnings and low coming in tomorrow. consumers are willing to put homes, thetheir homebuilding indexes also up one point 6%. commodity chemicals index down 3.8%, dow is one of the countries -- companies hurting today. department stores are also down, and we have some consumer companies like conti performing badly today. vonnie: -- let's get back to some of
the political drama we've been watching and italy. the prime minister announced that he will resign. the on his way to see president. there was a fascinating speech in parliament, he sharply attacks the deputy premier who was sitting next to him. some calling his decision to spark a political crisis irresponsible. us, -- it, by personal ambition. now, the joining us andquestion is, he goes sees the president, what does he do now? : election? put a short government together election? call an >> it's going to be a long night in rome. the prime minister will go to and submit hisht
register -- his resignation. ofording to the procedure the italian parliament, we then start consultation with the leaders of the parties in the next couple of days. and after this consultation he will see if there is a potential alternative majority and give the mandate to allow someone ,lse to be the prime minister if there's no chance to form a new majority he will call another election. there are several scenarios being played, but clearly after the frontal attack made this afternoon to sell meaning -- salvini, we've never seen such an attack before, it's very unlikely that the league could
team up. there is another potential chance that the democratic party, led by the former premier , will team up with the five-star, and maybe some other parties to form an alternative majority. in the last few days, those chances have increased. there was some overture from leaders. a few minutes ago, some members of the parliament said we can now talk with five-star. a few seconds ago, while i was thinkg, someone said i that they have been talking for a while. there is a chance that they could form an alternative majority. if it will be convincing, that this will be a real and new government, not just a government which is born just to not let salvini become
premier. vonnie: talk to us about market reactions, it looks like there was a flight, stocks went down, but they improved overall. and this is one of the better performing indices in europe. what do the markets want? we spoke with some analysts last fewmists in the minutes. salvinilly, they say will be responsible to call for the next election, making a less likely possibility of an election, and mobilizing the possibility of a new government. thisis good for investors, may mean there would be a new with thet more in line .uropean commission
besomehow, the risk may lower in the coming months. this is why we saw a rally today. vonnie: thank you. scott ofre back with blackrock. this is one of the risks that the ecb has had to deal with right now, inflation is not going anywhere. it should not be where it is. it's looking woefully short at the moment. aboutrd a few days back the kitchen sink in september at --se markets -- throughout throwing the kitchen sink at these markets in september. much are we expecting? one thing adding to the market is that the market is starting
to question. rinse andive is the repeat going to be? how effective is moving this lower? the bond market -- the bond market hasund rallied after hitting a low. and we may be reaching a level where investors have had enough. i just wonder, part of what's feeling -- feeling this uncertainty is the concept that what central banks has been doing is not working on the inflation target, and so keep doing more of that. yes, it has helped europe get , butgh a number of crises in respect to replay it -- in respect to inflation it's not doing it. so you get the question of the effectiveness of monetary policy , which may be in investors minds. interpretingi'm
what you're saying is that you feel things are changing. the world we have been used to since the end of the financial crisis, the way the central banks have acted in the government has acted is coming to an end. positioning for a change in this environment? are you thinking about how you position for a change? if monetary policy has run its course then you need to rethink how the paradigm works, is that what you are doing? scott: what we are doing, is that we are trying to think about how central banks and governments -- what will they do that will be effective from altering the path of inflation? because that is their target. they may decide to change the target but that is the target currently. what they have been doing has helped the growth aspect, but hasn't helped the inflation profile? in europed to argue
and in the u.s.. so the question we ask ourselves is what else can they do? we believe a coordinated effort that the central bank orchestrates between monetary policy and fiscal spending, together, in a targeted way, will encourage growth and inflation. as we think about the alternatives for central banks and we think about the positioning -- but as you know, this is a slow process. it will not change tomorrow. question.w is a good guy: we have a bit of breaking news coming through. annie: the u.k. may delay bank of england governor position until after brexit, and the budget could be pushed to 2020 if a general election is called. these headlines are just crossing the bloomberg now. the u.k. may delay a decision on the next bank of england governor until after brexit.
this is assuming that brexit goes ahead in some shape or form. fascinating, there are a number of potential names that were not in the mix that long ago, that could potentially be put in the mix. and you have to wonder if the prime minister has decided we need to get through brexit, then we need some sort of governor to , to deliverdination that process. some names have been talked about, and it would be fascinating to see what the take would be. we could get a more unconventional story. report says that the fact that the u.k. is considering delaying these two key decisions is a sign that the on anminister could be election footing. there may be an election of a foot. guy: scott, what do you make of
this? scott: the concerns people have is the deadline itself, the second is the general election and what that means for the economy in the markets. and lastly, how do you prepare yourself for this outcome. as we approach halloween, how do you get your business in order? you have to budget for the scenarios. it's a very complicated process, with many different outcomes. and if keeping the head of the bank in place over that transition period -- guy: he goes in january. scott: yes, but it could suggest that they will delay it, i don't know. it doesn't seem totally out of keeping with being consistent. but i think, importantly, that the general election and brexit are interrelated. but those of the risks investors
-- investors are focusing on. it does not seem like the market has substantially changed its positioning, how are you? scott: because of the brexit uncertainty, we have been ,avorable to the gilt market because we believe, in addition to the geopolitical risks pervasive around china, u.s., argentina, italy, u.k. investors are very focused on brexit. we would suggest an incremental add around the u.k. bond market. so we have been positive on gilts. guy: let's turn around the conversation, and get a take from our central bank team regarding the u.k.'s. the u.k. may delay the governor's decision until after brexit.
paul golden is standing by, what is your read on this? that things are quite complicated in the u.k. at the moment. we are hearing that the bank of england governor appointment may have to wait until after october 31, currently he leaves at the end of january and there's a handover period. there are expectations that this would have come sooner. an appointment was expected to be made in the autumn, but there has not been specific comments from others. it seems there is some willingness to delay that if needed. associated with that, we are hearing that the u.k. budget may ifdelayed until next spring a general election is called, that's partly logistical, if an election is called the government is effectively blocked from drawing a budget.
at i'd also suggest reparation for a real possibility of an election. vonnie: it does not tell us about how brexit is happening if it happens in one form or another. will mark carney agree to this? paul: he does not have to agree to it, he has already extended his 10 year twice -- tenure twice. but he has suggested that he has no willingness to do that. this is a treasury decision, the short list was compiled by his pre-assessor, and it's not whittled down to the final couple of names, so there is somewhere for the process to go with the treasury. and that's a problem, there are other things on the plate area guy: you do -- place. guy: you do wonder if this will
be a treasury decision or next-door, at number 10. paul, thank you. let's check where european stocks have settled as we had to the break. afternoon, they are all trading low, but the ftse 100 is moving lower. and the mining stocks have been on the downside but the pound has rallied. when the pound goes up, the ftse goes down. more coverage at the top of the hour, we have a cable show, and i will be joining my cohost in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
white house says that the president is looking at all options for tax cuts. gidley.ording to hogan of the hour,k let's talk about what's happening in the u.s. retail sector, kohl's shares are dropping 6% following second quarter earnings. marking a drop is reversal from what we saw in the premarket, where we saw shares gained 6% area what we saw -- 6%. what we saw were declines and estimates for the third consecutive quarter. that they have been blown off course, but sales have been positive in the last six weeks, and this has continued into the current quarter, driven by a successful back-to-school season. we are looking at margins
contracted and compared with the is reallyer, this down to execution at kohl's. they said seasonal gigs were not as appealing as they should have been, and home goods were not priced competitively enough. but there was good news from the company's unique partnership with amazon. the department store now accepts amazon returns in all of its stores, following a successful pilot. deal would actually drive in traffic and contribute to performance according to the ceo. vonnie: thank you. it's time for your latest business flash. huawei's warning that the company is at a live or die moment. urgedernal memo underutilized employees to form commando squads to take on new
projects. workers may lose their jobs and have salaries cut. sanctions have hammered the sales. and a warning from the world largest minor, they say threats from trade tensions could hurt from material prices. dividend payments were raised because of higher earnings. latest bloomberg business flash. this is bloomberg. ♪
crude oil prices, we have seen investors piling. if you look at this chart, you can see investors have added $100 million to the fund, putting it on track for the biggest monthly inflow since back in november. this has happened since the price of oil has declined. what's interesting about this etf's investors usually use it to make bets on short-term price reversals. as we have seen oil fall and volatility increase you have seen cash russian. you can find my chart at g tv . thank you, guy? scott: -- guy: let's talk about recessions, america is interested. this is a chart with the mentions of recessions and news articles and it has spiked in the last couple of weeks. this goes back to august 2018. you can see a big a spike in the number of mentions. if you go to google and you look
at this story, you can see an extrapolation of people searching on google as well for the term recession. there is a lot of fear following the inversion about what is going to come up next, whether the u.s. is heading to a recession. i think it's interesting, it mentions back to that story about the white house looking at some payroll tax -- maybe trying to ease the fears that americans have about what is happening with their economy. u.s.ata looks solid, the consumer looks solid, even the retail numbers look solid, but there's a lot of mention about recession and searches about recession. maybe this is what the white house is ultimately thinking about. you can find this chart on your bloomberg at 3230. yes, tax cuts even, there's been a back-and-forth as to whether the white house is
looking or not looking or publicly are not publicly carrying -- caring. all options are being considered, but the question is, would there be the ability to do that politically and fiscally? guy,e jessica's chart, but you have tickled my fancy with all the warnings that we could talk ourselves into recession if we are not careful. the winner is guy johnson. on gheck out both charts tv . coming up, a conversation with expiration ofhe the imf treaty. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business. today, from a lawn come on the fall of the italian government. from washington, joe biden resurgent. the volcker rule 2.0. we watched today as the prime minister said that is it. i am gone. what has happened and what happens next? conte willnister resign tonight. he likely is going to hand his resignation to president mattarella. mattarella has to accept the resignation. tomorrow, likely tomorrow morning, he will start consultation with the party. the, it is in the hand of president. mattarella will have to see if there is a chance to form an alternative majority in the new government. if he does not see those