tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg September 5, 2019 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
>> the hong kong stock exchange, someing news, saying systems were under cyberattack. nothing to do with derivatives trading. to normal now. hong kong is building on gains. we >> are up 3%. >>these websites have been under attack. we will get clarity on what that means, but we are talking about look at thee as we rising bond yields that came out of nowhere. at majort's look indices and see some positivity, shanghai comp up 2/10 of 1%. the nikkei to 25 moving to the
upside again in correlation to the yen, which is relatively weaker than it has been of late. hang tank -- hang seng, 8/10 of 1%, a flat end of the session thursday, the nx x -- the nsx 200 is up. let's take a look. positivity with trade talks slated for october, some sort of clarity anyway. now, the bond rally coming to a halt. this is what we have, 10 basis points to the upside the 10 year yield on the aussie, big yield on that -- a big move on that one. we have brexit and boris johnson's brother resigning from the government and the party, actually. and that again, throwing more down from his strategy once again, taking us further away from a hard exit. as a result we have seen sterling climbing about 3% in three days, down a fraction at a -- $1.23.e dollar 23 in this has to do with more
risk-taking, not as much of a haven, gold silver and platinum -- gold, silver, platinum also on their way down. silver down 3.7%. in the u.s. we have a lot of things which will come after asia, we have jay powell, we also have that all-important data, the most important data point in the year arguably, and we have payrolls, 160 6000 jobs created by the american economy. up i p active futures are one quarter of 1%. david: in hong kong we are looking ahead to unrest, potentially this weekend after carrie lam, the chief executive, formerly with -- formally withdrew the extradition bill. the air point is a potential flashpoint again with calls for protesters to gather there
saturday, that is tomorrow. one source says it is unlikely the unrest will continue. have a listen. >> even if you meet some of the demands from the protesters, would that be enough to pacify the crowd and then all the protests would stop? that would remain to be seen. i doubt that, because from the opposition members over these two days, they came out to say all five demands must be satisfied. and there is no sign of concession. rishaad: our next guest has championed china, steve, take it away.
steve: we are at a pivotal time in the protest movement in hong kong as we also approach the critical national holiday in china and three weeks. many directions this movement could take, it depends a lot on what beijing says and what carrie lam in the hong kong government does. but we already heard protesters will continue that fight for their other fort a man's. who hast is jimmy lai, kindly open the doors of his home in kowloon. thank you, jimmy. why did carrie lam's gesture of finally withdrawing the bill not pattison -- not pacify the voters -- not pacify the protesters? jimmy: because so much damage has been done over the weeks. and every time we demonstrate, we realize what the government intention is, it is to
sequentially take away our rule of law. governmente local intention, or beijing intention? carrie lam has become a puppet. i don't think she is making any decisions. because is why, beijing, they see through the whole thing through a prism of their own value, their dictator way of controlling everything, that they won't understand what our aspiration is. and they don't care. we are just an abstraction for them. >> why would they do that? they get control of 50 years of it, and it will lapse anyway and 24/7. jimmy: 2047 is 25 years away. they can't wait. they want what we have.
us as subservient to them, totally. >> could we have avoided the mayhem of the last two or three months of carrie lam have it -- carrie lam had simply withdrawn the bill in june? absolutely. if she went out and withdrew it, nothing would've happened in the past three months. we in these three months, realized that unless we have reverse off a suffrage, we will always have constant encroachment on our freedom. and this is why this is the war of last straw that we must continue our movement until we get the assurance of universal suffrage. >> do you believe carrie lam when she says this gesture to withdraw the bill officially will ally many of the concerns of protesters? others in the protest cap say it
is more of a ploy -- protest -- itay it is a more of is more of a ploy to say, i have acquiesced or demands, and if there are more protests, that would give the government justification at a minimum to clampdown on civil liberties? jimmy: i think the latter is more realistic, but i don't think they will come up with emergency law, just because the emergency law cannot stop the internet information, and they can't stop commercial and financial information into action. the means they can't stop information, so they can't stop people from organizing the power of resistance through the internet. if people still can organize their power through the internet, there will be resistance. media run a powerful
digital platform. have you seen any indications the government is testing closing down the? internet or publications? -- internet arpa -- closing down the internet or publications? >> now. so the emerge -- no. here, theyd the poa have to risk world sanctions against china because china is not in appreciation. the economy is sliding, xi jinping concentrated power on himself. the internal power struggle in the party is very clear, because you offend a lot of those members by the anticorruption campaign. and this trade war is going on
with the u.s., so many things putting china in a very crisis mode. i don't think they dare to risk world sanctions. >> you have been attacked by chinese media many times over the years. what do you make of the latest attack, where you have been named one of the gang of four along with others? you have been called a u.s. stooge, a tray tour -- a traitor to the enough -- to the chinese nation. are you a traitor? jimmy: i consider that a badge of honor, because we are fighting for freedom of the people. me,n't care what they call and whatever they want to intimidate me, i am not going to be subdued by fear.
beeno long i have determined not to think about fear and let fear frighten me. because i would not be able to do anything. >> who is blamed for throwing a petrol bomb at your house two nights ago? jimmy: i don't think the chinese directed. gangsters,k some they got some money from some rich chinese merchants or whatever to do this stupid thing. it is a small nuisance i am used to, so it is just a nuisance. it happenedw that that 1:25 in the morning. i got up in the morning on my colleague said something happened, so it is nothing, nothing big. the u.s. has talked a lot
about the black hand of foreigners interfering in hong kong affairs, whether it is the united states or possibly taiwan. has the united states at all supported you in your efforts to bring democracy to hong kong? they had was just moral support. this is a foreign inference, but they have to show evidence. there is not a shred of evidence that a foreign country is mobilizing this demonstration or resistance. all the people know that this is a lie. plae talked about the threat. what about the threat companies like cathay pacific are facing, where they are forced to to the party line? is that a bigger threat to the hands-off, low-tax, free commerce environment hong kong enjoys? this is a big threat. it is as much of a threat as china taking away our rule of
law. [indiscernible] no [indiscernible] minds,trol their staffs their actions, what they say, what they do in their private time and space. >> but they can control it by firing, and that is what we have seen with some companies. are a lot ofere companies moving out of china. because companies don't have the right to do this. they cannot operate with this kind of acting for china. they cannot do that. staff to move a certain way, think a certain way, do certain things, this is not the best in culture. that is why whatever the chinese government does must be wrong,
because they see it through the prism of their own value, ignoring the free world, the free world is so different. >> jimmy, thank you for having me in your home. you,ll send it back to more of our exclusive conversation with jimmy lai will be coming up in the next month or so, as we have a special show on the chaos gripping hong kong. you.e: steve, thank great conversation. let's go to first world news, su keenan is in new york. we start with the federal reserve, which says uncertainty around trade policy is holding back global growth, and may drag into 2020. conflicts theade first half of last year accounts for a declining global gdp of 8/10 of 1% in the first six months of the year and adds that, had trade tensions not
escalated in may and june, the fed would have expected the drag on growth to have eased by now. ♪ ecb president that is outgoing mario draghi is facing more opposition to his plan to revive kiwi for the years own economy. the bank of france is skeptical about the need for new bond purchases, adding to criticism of the plan from germany. austrian and dutch policymakers as well. the ecb makes -- meets on thursday with draghi facing the possibility of adding qe. hong kong's richest man suffers a setback in singapore with his hutchins import holding companies being removed from the sci because of a dramatic fall in market value. the company ipo in 2011 was one of the biggest share sales that year, but his market cap has plunged more than 80% to around
1.5 billion u.s. dollars. that is the lowest among the 30 members of the sdi. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc and 20 are, powered by more than 27 hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan, this is bloomberg. ♪ rubenstein'sd exclusive interview with hedge fund heavy rate ray dalio, later this hour. plus jp morgan pacific portfolio's manager joins us in a couple of minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪
markets. have a look at this. we are calling this, too little, too late. perhaps that was the sense two days ago, addressing what carrie lam was doing. asia-pacific,is the bottom panel is japan. to see that happen the next two days on your top panel. so there is the question, is it too late to avoid a double death? our next guest expects this to translate into positive over the next six months. pacificus is jp morgan portfolio manager, aisa ogoshi. tell us about your rationale and what you are making about the volatile and mysterious times currently?
aisha: it is, indeed. the low-growth uncertainty environment is very favorable for us, we focus on quality companies on growth in the region. these companies, we try to look through the cycle, i.e. looking for structural growth, something that has a strong management team to whether these uncertain weather these uncertain times. although the market seems volatile at times, we as a team -- yvonne: i'm wondering what you make of the move in the bond markets overnight. everyone thought it was one direction and would get lower. how much support can equity markets expect from the decline in interest rates, now that we see repricing? i would have to refer to my bond specialist.
but what we are seeing across the region, given the low-growth environment, is that a lot of governments are responding with fiscal stimulus. for example, in places like korea we expect a general election next year, so we expect some fiscal policies to be announced there. the india government is working with their central bank, so we are seeing a lot of responses from the governments, which is encouraging for the equities market. david: downward revisions and earnings are likely to continue. you look past that before all these things taken? : our internal earnings model looks at five-year returns. this is something we are aware of. but we do look through those cyclicals. so is it about preservation or accumulation not the moment? because you have outperformed, and with volatility we have
seen, are people running scared? are you saying redemptions? aisha: for our funds, fortunately we haven't seen much redemption and we are starting to see some new funds being deployed in our region. so that is quite encouraging. rishaad: the question is, what are you seeing down the road? road, it isthe encouraging to see government responses to this environment, with whatever power they have. at the same time, we can't forget that asia, the region as a whole, still has plenty of growth. seeing countries are cyclicals at the moment, but we shouldn't get too beaten up by that. that structural growth is still there, management teams we back are still executing very well, so we don't see -- i wouldn't say we
are very positive, but we are very, very constructive [laughter] going forward. yvonne: your top five holdings, chipmakers semi-are one of your tops now. we have a chart of apple supply chain stocks here, semiconductors, and the valuations on these things have basically now doubled the price of apple itself. i know this is one of the risks you look at, valuations on these growth stocks. is it getting too expensive? at what point do you rotate? --ha: we are very aware big very aware of valuations. where we see some faults, for example, in markets now we are seeing the winners be bid up quite aggressively, not just in tech, but for example chinese a lot of theses,
outperformed quite aggressively and we see a lot of rewriting contributing to that price -- re-rating contributing to that price movement. maybe it is time to take money off the table and cycle it into underperformers. david: india, what is happening, are you worried? aisha: india does worry us. post elections we did expect some government stimulus to reignite the growth of the economy. but what has overshadowed that is the credit crunch issue in the financial sector, and even in the public sector, banking sector. announced tohave merge the public sector banks, so that is one step. what is positive is that the government and central bank are working very tightly together, so we can expect more measures to contain the banking sector problems. rishaad: great having on the program, thank you very much.
♪ latest let's get to the business flash headlines. the much delighted work at the bhp joint venture with bally may be held up. the operation has been closed since a dam collapse in 2015, and the company failed to win permission to reopen from the environmental agency locally. we are told the bhp permit cannot be issued without federal approval. thed: a new revision in sale of its container leasing arm with shall earlier this
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♪ seenus far we have not material impacts from the geopolitical situation. that said, we are not immune. but thus far think we have navigated quite well. china named as a strategic competitor in u.s. national security strategy. we should be understanding these tensions are about much more than buying soybeans or short-term objectives. the u.s. wants to slow down china' has arise. that is what is going on. we have seen -- >> we have seen this movie before. as the cycle broken? will we get to a breakthrough
either in october when the president's at aipac? >> if i had to bet, there would be some of the deal prior to the elections. and it won't matter so much, acause the trade deal is only small part of the issue. ♪ of our guests commenting on the trade war. german chancellor angela merkel is in beijing for her 12th trip to china, domestic economy teetering on the brink of recession. have a look at this, fti annual in china, $3.7 billion, a record as of 2018. this is perhaps one part of the conversation selina wang is watching in beijing. a, what should we expect from this visit? is facing tough
policy objectives and needs to maintain a hard line on beijing while pushing for a u.s.-china trade deal and reciprocal market access for german companies. this is a delicate time for germany. they are a very export-dependent economy and there is a significant weakness, teetering on recession as you said. journey -- germany is also china's largest trading partner, numbers reaching 195 billion dollars bilaterally last year. germany is one of the few western countries to run a trade surplus with china, as you can see from the chart, with vw and bmw relying more on sales to china than the u.s.. complicating everything is the ongoing protests in hong kong. you have pro-democracy activists calling for angela merkel to intervene and support them. we have seen angela merkel take a delicate, careful line, urging
beijing to engage in discussions that follow the rule of law, but did decline an invitation from protesters to meet them in person. for more on the implications of the trade war, our next guest is ryand port founder and ceo peterson. flexed port ships by air, ocean, rail and truck and helps companies manage supply trains. your customers have been dealing with tariffs were more than a year -- tariffs for more than a year. how are they reacting to the latest escalations? it is difficult to be a u.s. importer. you see your costs going up dramatically. 60% of our customers are impacted by the tariffs already, and it is not a small impact. these are not high-margin software businesses. these are companies buying products and selling them with a small markup. so a big impact their drives decision making. so you are seeing a lot of desire to shift manufacturing.
nine out of 10 customers i have talked to personally have either already shifted or are underway shifting volumes, shipping, manufacturing, largely to southeast asia but anywhere in the world that is not affected by the trade war. selina: in terms of productions being shifted at of china, how many were already planned as labor costs get more expensive in china? we were seeing a shift ahead of the trade war moving into southeast asia, vietnam, et cetera. how many were planned versus the trade war pushing them over the edge? ryan: that is the right question. this is an ongoing trend. especially for products where there is not a lot of complexity, and ecosystem of subcomponents like electronics that are a little bit slower to move. apparel is one where a lot of volumes were shifting, but it has accelerated for sure. you will see more and more. and the fact that some of the more complex things are starting to shift to vietnam, darting to shift, we are seeing 20 x volume
growth for flexed port out of philippines next year, for example, remarkable for us. 20 x is crazy out of a single country. david.ryan, this is i'm from the philippines. i'm curious, is that 20 x number because you guys opened a business there? is that new or is that an acceleration of the shift out of china? isn: certainly some of that a reflection of our smaller size in that market. but really, we are not going anywhere near that in southeast asia. we see it in indonesia and a bunch of other markets, that really fast acceleration. grown 40%s year-over-year in export volumes, manufacturing, it is unprecedented. porte: you launched flexed capital to help provide financing to your comps -- to your companies. how make -- how many customers
are coming to you because profits are squeezed by tariffs? ryan: since january 2018, tariffs as a percentage of total product value, and this is the purchase price of the goods, has tripled for our customers, which is a huge impact. that is not insignificant for companies that need to finance these goods, by them, and then they may sell them a month or several months later before they actually get paid for them. so that is a big gap in working capital they need to finance. so we are seeing a lot of growth in our flexed port capital product where we provide loans to companies to provide inventory. we do that with confidence be because we know the companies we have in the products in their possession. it is definitely growing fast. that business has tripled year-over-year for us. selina: arguably one of the bigger drags on business, in addition to pure costs of the tariffs, is all the uncertainty, not knowing if you should shift apply chains, make other
changes, based on a tweet from the president. how do you think pure uncertainty is dragging on business investment, hiring decisions? ryan: it is a high degree of friction in decision-making. and it is really hard to make decisions in a situation of ambiguity. i empathize with them completely. if you don't know if there is going to be a deal, you don't know if the president is going to get reelected, so supply chains take years to redevelop and reposition. it sounds easy to go to vietnam, but that means finding a new factory you trust, that can make your product at quality and scale. so it is really hard to make decisions in that environment. i admire the people doing it. some of them quite boldly, some of them saying we are going to ride it out. either way, a difficult decision to make. thene: we are watching political situation very closely in hong kong. company lease outset are at a docking space near the shin jen
border and hong kong airport. how is that impacting your business in any way? itn: we have been fortunate hasn't had major impact. we have 180 employees in hong kong and a similar number across the border in the border city in china. we operate aware outset hong kong airport and have a flexed port 747 to goes to hong kong airport three days a week. cargo operations have not been stopped. even when there has been airport shutdowns, our cargo flights have continued. thus far i'm happy all our employees have been safe and not affected yet, but we are hoping for a peaceful resolution to all this and makes her our people are safe. david: -- yvonne: no plans to shift that right now? china atg kong and larger major parts of the world economy. china, to give you a sense, it would have to shrink a huge amount to make any difference. it is such a dominant player as
far as transpacific trade, that we will be there. we will be the last company to leave, because if any of our customers are trading with china, flux ports needs to be there to help them. so we are committed for the long-term. david: ryan peterson from flexed port, founder and ceo, joining us out of san francisco. let's get first world news. su keenan is in new york. su: thank you, yvonne. we start with embattled u.k. prime minister boris johnson on the latest on brexit. johnson says he does not want a snap election, but it is the only way out of the brexit quagmire. he faced the cameras with his policy in tatters and his own brother resigning from parliament in protest of his plan. rebel conservative mps joined opposition parties to block johnson's drive toward a no-deal brexit and nu three-month ally in the process is now expected. ♪ to india, where the country says
landline communication has been restored in cashmere, after being cut last month and a security crackdown. the suspension almost completely cell phonee area, as and internet service still remains cut off. local media say there are no longer restrictions on daytime travel, but police and army checkpoints remain in place. ♪ hurricane dorian is strengthening as it moves slowly toward the eastern seaboard of the u.s.. the storm is once again a category three system with sustained winds of 185 mile -- 185 kilometers per hour and a storm surge of two meters. it is moving at 10 kilometers. it is expected to touch the coast of north carolina in the coming areas -- in the coming hours before heading northeast up the coast. ♪ and pressure is mounting on the nissan board after the ceo admitted that he and other
executives and managers have been paid more than they should. board members are being briefed on the inquiry and will meet monday to decide what actions to take. reports say the beneficiaries included a senior vice president, one of the key whistleblowers in the downfall of nissan's former chairman. global news, 24 hours a day, and on tictoc and twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. ♪ i'm su keenan, this is bloomberg. ♪ coming up, our conversation with billionaire ray dalio, as he talks about the chances of an american recession. this is bloomberg. ♪
by the non-japanese issuer, berkshire hathaway here, ¥430 welion, 5, 7 and 10 year, are still awaiting pricing on the company but in terms of mating -- in terms of writing, moody's gave it sent be aa. we should be getting the pricing at some point. roughly of this one is $4 billion. rishaad: take advantage of perhaps the yo -- the low-yield environment. let's get you up to speed with business flash headlines with the kong -- the hong kong exchange sang the derivatives market is back up and running today after being closed for the first time thursday due to technical problems, the exchange blending a software issue. it was a tough 24 hours but the exchange says it website also faced a separate and unrelated attack and reveals it has been targeted in several ways this year. david: we worked is planning an
ipo that is somewhat less dramatic than the one it was hoping for. ofrces tell us the valuation $20 billion to $30 billion, roughly half the amount it was given by its biggest backer a few months back. softbank,20% owned by it has racked up massive losses. yvonne: deutsche bank cuts dozens of traders and sales staff in the unit that was largely spared from a first round of cuts and the firm overhaul two months ago. the bank has targeted traders in high-yield and investment-grade debt and we are told it is closing underperforming units entirely, which is the credit business in latin america. ♪ david: after a string a string of strong u.s. economic data, investors now shift to remarks from jay powell and his jobs report.
analysts expect nonfarm payrolls to increase to 160,000 jobs in august, 4000 more than the month of july. the end employment rate is expected to hold at 3.7%, just above a five-decade low. wake -- wage gains are the key, the weakest and about 12 months. rishaad: the billionaire founder of the world's largest hedge fund says there is a 25% chance of a recession in the u.s. this year and next. we are talking bridgewater dalio,tes cochairman ray with david rubenstein about how central banks can cope. a recession is two negative quarters of gdp. and i think we are hovering fairly close to that level, and there is a variation around it. but the bigger things are a combination of the absence of effectiveness of central bank policies, so we can talk about
those, together with the wealth gap, a large wealth gap. so when the largest -- so when the next downturn comes, what that would look like socially, politically and so on. an issueions, which is between, let's say, capitalists and socialists, or the rich and the poor, and then the emergence to thea in relationship united states. those four factors are factors that have not existed since the 1930's. they are unique rishaad: -- they are unique. so when we get to the questions of a recession, i think it will how it affect -- it will be how it affects those other things, and how those things affected. david: your investment firm was quite well known sometime before the last recession, but in the last recession, your firm
performed extremely well, maybe better than any other hedge fund. you were up 28% or something like that as i recall, during the worst year. so are you anticipating a recession now, and are you changing investment approaches? or are you not quite where you were in 2007? was easy to, it calculate these debts that were going to come due, and there was not an adequate amount of funding. so that sort of debt crisis was something we anticipated and were positioned well for. when i go through those calculations, it is not the same. in other words, the amount of maturing debt and that whole problem doesn't look the same. it looks more like a gradual squeeze having to do with quite a lot of debt of a certain type, but with that also pension liabilities and health care,
particularly, as that produces a greater squeeze rishaad: -- a greater squeeze. . we have large deficits. so the amount of promises we have our large, but they are going to be coming at us at a more gradual pace, and i think that is going to produce a squeeze. i think related to that, what is important is that when you don't have monetary policy being able to be effective, what kind of monetary policy will we have? we will have more than likely a lot of debt monetization. yvonne: that was bridgewater associates cochairman ray dalio speaking with david rubenstein. for more on the u.s. economic outlook, don't miss bloomberg coverage of the u.s. payroll job number coming out later today, we have type white house economic aid larry kudlow -- white house economic aide larry
kudlow speaking with us over the next the hours. david: we will see if they support risk appetites. three days of gains in asia, 4/10 of 1%, not created equal and it tells you why investors are moving out of defenses. you have your cyclicals on their way up, at least today. down to india, less than an hour from now. the question is, are you guys going to play along today? as the futures, indications of concern, and we are going to open in the green. we must remember that after the sharp drop, the sharp direction we saw last tuesday, we are seeing a little bit of consolidation. that said, there is weakness in the private sector space, specifically banks, and we continue to see foreign totfolio investors continue
sell, and that remains a challenge for the following markets. for now, we are expecting a little market consolidation to come through. tesla motors firing a warning. what should be looked -- what should we be looking out for in terms of the indian auto sector? >> more bad news perhaps. auto volumes have been dwindling for the indian automotive sector for the past several quarters, and we have a new managing director who suggested the indian auto group story is about to collapse, fairly dramatic, but for now we are keeping our eyes on the big players, specifically the commercial side of things. you, ourthank bloomberg correspondent in mumbai. ♪ our, we have one of
let's kick things off in hong kong, jeannie is here with her offering. jeannie. they chart is showing coupling of hong kong and and we can from the bottom of the chart see that the chinese stock listed in hong kong is trading at a discount to their onshore peers by the most in more than two years. deviation fromg the historical average, and if people really believe the deviation was really narrow cup -- really narrow, a could be a time to buy hong kong stocks, especially the chinese companies, especially since they share a similar earnings profile with their onshore peers. i kick off friday talking about something asian investors
love, which is property. havepore state investments outperformed hong kong counterparts by 16 percentage points since protests began in the chinese territory. that is because the hang seng index is down about 10% since protests broke out on nine june. ftse ftse, up about 20%. [inaudible] she wasn't able to finish off her pitch, as it were. we are working on restoring communications. madeieve we have communication again. carry on. [laughter] >> so the ftse index is up about the 3% in the hang
seng index. is offering over 5%. looking ahead, much more uncertainty in hong kong because protesters don't seem assuaged by leader carrie lam's decision to formerly -- to formally withdraw the exit -- to formally withdraw the extradition bill. in singapore, stocks are macroming well with headwinds because of overseas assets. don't like how everyone is beating down on hong kong. rishaad: we could just repeat what you said yesterday, who has one? david: i picked jeannie for the simple reason that there is a very strong case by the
enterprises index, because that is almost divorced from the economy in hong kong, purely a sentiment play. jeannie, congratulations. jeannie doesn't win anything. [laughter] yvonne: recognition. rishaad: it is all about taking part. yvonne: you know what, there is a lot of bad news about hong kong, but we had the fleck sport ceo saying they would be the last company to leave hong kong. that warmed my heart. we will go for all those charts on bloomberg programming throughout the hours and you can browse the recent charts and catch up and save charts for future reference. have a great weekend. ♪