tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg September 6, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: it's a defensive bias in the market today. names like nestle trading reasonably strongly. stoxx 600 up by 0.2%. also seeing gains when it comes to the bund market. we saw some very weak german ip data earlier on. another thing i want to highlight, we also had a russian rate decision today. the governor sounded really dovish and hinting at more cuts, at least one in the future. already seeing gains for the ruble today, up by 0.8%. vonnie: in the u.s., we saw treasury yields top 1.60% on the 10 year. down to 1.56% now. mixed data come about a lot of
positive things in the jobs report as well. s&p up 0.2% now, but of stocks making big moves on good news, including lululemon, up 8.5% on analyst comments. conagra, even though it got a downgrade and started the day lower, is up 0.6% now. guy: let's get some insight on today's payroll number. it wasn't a headline level miss, but it kind of felt like pretty much what the market was looking for. with us is ira jersey. ira, did today's number change anything? ira: i don't think it changed much. like you mentioned, it was really a mixed bag. the number of hours worked, as well as hourly average earnings, was ok. when you look at what i call the paycheck of the economy, the some product of all of those -- the sum product of all of those
things, it is higher than it was last month. not much, but maybe we are stabilizing here considering average wages were falling for the bulk of the year so far. vonnie: larry kudlow mentioned that in terms of wages, we are now 4% plus over the last three months. i'm wondering if that gives the fed a little more leeway to potentially cut more than 25 basis points at the next meeting if it decides to. ira: i don't think so because the fed is on track to cut 25. there is some possibility of a 50. it wouldn't be a complete surprise if we had motive the members -- if we had one of the numbers of the fomc saying we should go faster now so we don't have to do more later, but i think a preponderance of the members of the committee only want to do 25. they want to be more measured because if this does start to rebound, they don't want to be hiking so soon if they can avoid that. guy: given the payroll number today, given the moving average,
which looks pretty solid as well, any chance we get a surprise from powell when he speaks in zurich a little later on? ira: i don't think a big surprise. i am looking for more what is the reaction function after this month. september is baked in the cards. i don't think the fed wants to disappoint the market. the question is how fast do they go, and do they go to more times this year after september? the market was pricing about a 50-50 shot of two more cuts in october and december. he could take that away if he was a little more cautious about how quickly they're going to go. vonnie: ira, the more the president tweets, the more he tweets about jerome powell. does it get any more dangerous for the federal reserve and its decision-making? are the markets taking anymore notice with each marginal cleat? -- each marginal tweet? ira: i think the market is kind of numb to it. they know the president doesn't like chair powell.
part of it is chair powell is a number of a committee, and it surprised me when powell was first nominated by president trump because he wasn't a dove. he's a mainstream kind of thinker when it comes to monetary policy. i was expecting someone who is a known dove to be appointed. it shouldn't be surprising that powell is being a middle-of-the-road person and not dovish like donald trump seems to want. vonnie: i just want to fact check what larry kudlow said about 4% on wages. i did look it up, and the last three months has been three point 2% year-over-year, 3.3%, 3.2%. what did he mean by 4% plus? alix: he's talking about --ira: he's talking about the momentum, so basically if you took the last three months in isolation and annualized that. that was my point earlier in our discussion, was that the momentum on the wage site has been ok, even though job
great.n hasn't been great. the some of that -- the sum of that is ok for the economy, and shows that things might be stabilizing somewhat. the consumer has really been the big heartbeat of the economy so far, with the manufacturing sector continuing to decline and being more of a problem for the economy than a help. vonnie: thank you. ira is bloomberg television's chief u.s. interest-rate strategist. guy: let's get more on the impact the global markets. we are joined now by caroline u.k. deputy cio. does the payroll number change anything for you? caroline: not a great deal. it was slightly weaker than what the market was expecting, but i think it is also a sign of the fact that unemployment is as low a sign of the-
fact that when employment is as low as it is, job accretion will slow. i know it is a little bit of a help but it certainly will the people thinking there is going to be a rate cut in september. guy: yields have moved a lot over the last month. equity markets still look pretty solid, though. to all-time close highs. which side of that makes you nervous? caroline: i think the reason why we got a lot of cuts going through is not because of fundamentals in the u.s., but because of the sort of global risk emanating from trade. as we go through the outlook for the earnings in the equity we see what impact the global slowdown is having on the earnings. that will then decide which way the equity markets are going. we are slightly underweight
equities against fixed income. vonnie: how is the ubs u.k. investment office thinking about what is happening with parliament and the prime minister right now? are you making any judgment calls on what might happen in the next few weeks, and who might be prime minister by the end of the year? caroline: we are doing a lot of scenarios, let's say that. have five different brexit scenarios and six different general election scenarios, and we try to work out which assets will do well under which scenario. it is very hard to put it. the extension of the article 50 bill is likely to be approved on monday. it is likely that the prime minister will then ask for a second time to see if he can get a general election. he probably won't get the support, looking at what is coming from the opposition parties today. working tose, we are think that we will get an extension, and then a general
election, but of course, like ways, all options are possible. vonnie: so what do you do in britain? caroline: on sterling, we think britain is pricing in a hard exit. you can take a longer term view on sterling, but that is going to appreciate against the dollar. in terms of the equity side, the best way to think is diversified dividend approach. you are also having a combination of cyclical and defensive sectors because we don't know which way the bond yield is going, and that is partly to do with the global situation, but of course partly linked to brexit. guy: can you walk me through the numbers on how many scenarios we got? it was five and six. this is a big tree we are talking about here. [laughter] guy: if i was sitting on the other side of the table, i would be saying, why do i want to invest in this? this looks like an incredibly difficult and uncertain environment.
there are plenty of other places to invest in the world. caroline: and i think a lot of international investors have taken that view since the referendum. we seen that in the outflows in the u.k. guy: getting worse now? caroline: i don't think it is getting worse. they've all kinda finished now, so i don't think it is getting worse. the reason why you might still want the u.k. is because there that look very bad, but a lot of it benefits the u.k. market if it makes sterling weaker. there's always an offsetting. the currency goes one may come of the market goes the other. the domestic economy goes one way, and market goes with it. good returns,get particularly on dividend. even if the market doesn't go anywhere, you still get 5% yield. guy: the data coming out of europe right now is horrible. we saw more of it today, the ip data coming out of germany.
people thought it was already going to be bad. it was even worse than anticipated. what options do you get about .nvesting in europe -- investing in europe? caroline: we think that the trade and global slowdown feeds into the euro zone perhaps more than people had anticipated. how you anticipate that is you look for more defensive strategies. if you get some downside protection like a covered call strategy or possibly a dividend strategy, something that gives you a little cushion on the way down, we do think the euro zone will underperform the u.s. vonnie: what about sterling? obviously, hsbc's david blum was quite colorful yesterday, but he said it would look bad for sterling and several difference in areas. do you have one call on sterling? caroline: we are long sterling against the dollar.
partly, we believe the dollar will be weakening as the fed continues to cut rates, but now, we think that at $1.23 , our view is that in the case of a hard exit, you would get to $1.15 on cable, so we do have some downside, but the bank of england is also coming up against its inflation target. unemployment rates are low. wage growth is starting to pick up. once we are through some of the brexit uncertainty, i think it does pave the way for the bank of england to possibly start thinking about raising rates depending on what is going on in the global picture. guy: we are going to talk about the global picture next. tank's for joining us this afternoon and giving us a view on what is happening here. we need to talk about what is happening with the china data, tripling the reserve cut today. caroline simmons is going to stay with us. vonnie: let's check u.s. markets. equity markets have been higher
♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check those markets now and get a first word news update. here with the details, kailey leinz. kailey: the justice department has opened an antitrust investigation into four automakers over emissions standards. prosecutors want to determine if ford, honda, bmw, and volkswagen
violated antitrust law in california. the government also want to strip california's authority to set tougher standards. hurricane dorian is battering the carolinas -- is battering north carolina's outer banks before heading northeast. district of waves and storm surges have ordered a round of evacuations. toll froms' death dorian is now at 30. the labour party and scottish national parties are set to vote on september 29. he was the longtime hero of
zimbabwe who eventually turned into a villain. rep. buck: abe has died, one of the truck -- robert mugabe has fighters forthe independent rule. vonnie: thank you. let's check global markets now. he is abigail doolittle -- here's abigail doolittle. abigail: we have a bit of a risk off tone on this friday. modest risk on tone in the u.s.. of uncertainty in london. the ftse 100 up fractionally. the shanghai composite in the asian session besting all of the indexes on the day, up about 0.5%. what a week it's been. let's take a look at a four-day chart of the s&p 500, a holiday shortened week. we had trade tensions weighing on tuesday, along with
disappointing many factoring numbers, so that day down. since then, we've been up and , forgetting about trade tensions and that weak manufacturing number. today we are sort of flattening out a little bit, but overall on the week, we do have -- actually, this is not the s&p 500. this is the german 30 year yield. here's the s&p 500. we had the down day tuesday, wednesday flat, and then we see the gains yesterday and friday. so overall, the bulls are taking it, even though we start with the bears. if we could take a look at that 30 year bond chart, there's a bigger story on the week in that bonds have been selling off. dou see the 30 year bun briefly into negative territory. into a riskhed us
off tone. we are going to see that we have the s&p 500 futures and purple, and yellow gold. after the fed meeting, we have the s&p 500 and that august range, but on yesterday's big rally, we are now slightly positive for the order, but you can see that gold, treasuries, and the haven yen outperforming, so still a bit of a risk off tone in the third quarter. it will be very interesting to see what the rest of september brings. guy: thank you very much indeed. caroline simmons, ubs wealth management deputy head of the u.k. investment office, still with us. the market feels really choppy. almost feels like we are back to risk on, risk off. i'm wondering how that affects your view. trade is clearly front and center. do you get any hint that the trade narrative is improving? it is kind of oscillating at the
moment. is that uninvestable market? caroline: i think the reason the market is oscillating is because people are split on whether this is a temporary global slowdown or whether this is marking the end of the cycle and a more significant slowdown to come. view is that generally, it is better to stay invested rather than to try and trade the markets if you've got a time horizon of at least five years. but also not to just look at one or two data points. we are seeing some inconsistencies. the pmi's are generally weaker than the hard data. you need to see, commission of data to make you want to take a it is best to be diversified. have some equities, some fixed income, some hedge funds. guy: let's talk a bit about central banks. they have been the central focus of the markets for quite some time.
anything the fed does, the ecb ,oes, the doj does massively important. you think we are coming to the end of that? we are going to get when he five basis points, but nevertheless, the bang for buck when it comes to portfolio affect and economic effects are becoming less and less. caroline: i think you're right. as time has gone on, the central banks have had less of an impact on the markets, but they are still very important, particularly from a signaling perspective. i think what we will get people start to focus on more is the fundamentals and the earnings picture, so as it continues to slow at an economic level, people will really be looking at what that does for the companies, and that will help drive equity views. vonnie: you said people should be diversified, hedge funds their holdings. what kind of strategies are you looking at? caroline: we take an approach of
a variety of different hedge funds, so we have a bit of everything in there. at the moment, the equity hedge benefiting from the dispersion in stock sectors and regions, but it is not advisable to only just have that. we also like the relative value trades quite a lot, and generally we try and build a portfolio of the hedge fund strategies as well within your portfolio, so it is really a , and sxsw'sonal hide portfolio. vonnie: fiscal stimulus in germany doesn't happen. what is the -- in germany, does it happen? what is the ubs view? caroline: at the limit of central-bank impact, does fiscal takeover? clearly, all eyes are going to
be on germany because they are the first really talking about it, so i think we will have to wait and see what happens. it is certainly a shift of where we are going into the next stages. --nie: thank you there is thank you. that is caroline simmons of ubs wealth management. want to take you to hong kong now. tensions are rising once again in the city. it is friday night, and protesters have taken to the streets in continuing civil unrest. some demands still not met, even removecarrie lam did that extradition bill. we will continue to monitor the situation this friday night in hong kong. this is bloomberg.
johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." it is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. new york is leading a multistate antitrust investigation into facebook. the attorney general says the goal is to find out if the social network has stifled competition and put it to at risk. according to "the wall street journal," google is facing a similar investigation. a $150 billion global corporate bond binge is breaking records. this year has been unprecedented. the amount sold in dollars, euro, and yen the first week of this month is the largest ever. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. checking u.s. markets now this jobs friday, we are getting a bounce. it is pretty muted, though, with nasdaq up 0.3% in the 0.1%.
guy: really tight ranges here in europe. it's been an incredibly narrow channel. oil stocks are down. we are also keeping an eye on what is happening with sterling. the dax is trading a little bit higher. we are trying to figure out on the m&a front what is happening there. some of the auto stocks having a reasonably good day as well. cac 40 up by about 0.1%. volume looks ok, but as i say come a very tight ranges as we going to the weekend. the european close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ we call it the mother standard of care.
to hear your concerns, quiet your fears, lift your spirits. with teams of cancer experts and specialists, delivering advanced treatment options and compassionate support every step of the way. all here in one place, with one purpose. to fight your cancer, together. that's the mother standard of care. this is how we inspire hope. this is how we heal. cancer treatment centers of america. appointments available now. guy: 30 seconds to go until the end of regular trading in europe this friday. to be honest, a range bound session today.
not a lot of action either way. lowme is ok, oil is trading , which is why london is underperforming. the numbers, ftse 100 up .1%. boundan incredibly narrow in the ftse 100 today. oil is a factor. oil stocks have had a good , no surprise with the oil price coming off. of dax, we have seen some the industrial companies having a good day. was aa out of germany surprise to the downside. worse than anticipated. on the otherks are end of the spectrum. the cac 40 trading down .1%. pay attention to that. we might get news on the auto
front. in terms of the sector story, it is mixed. cyclical sectors are doing all right. the chemicals trading higher, industrial goods trading higher, basic resources trading higher. i'm not sure you can pull too much away from this. they are trading in reasonably tight ranges. retail is trading higher. it is a real mix. you are getting more defensive names. if you look at the stoxx 600 and look at the points positioning, it is some of the defensive names doing better, adding the most points. the bottom end of the market, there is oil and gas trading down. the impact to the downside is not great. utilities taking a little off today, real estate taking a little off as well. it is an interesting mix. i do not think you can take a clear sense away from the market today. let's take a look at where the individual stories line terms of the name. nestle up 1%. san fran is trading higher.
1.43% -- shell down 1.43%. guy: the oil produced -- vonnie: the oil producers are lower in today's trades as well. the s&p, the dow, the nasdaq all up .1 or .2%. the 10 year at 1.55. the dollar index continues to weaken. still above 98 and the vix is calm today on a friday session. index down one point 4%, the worst performance in the s&p 500. pharmaceuticals up 2.75%. it does not look like it will get out of its problems.
2.25% and facebook facing investigations. it is down 2%. mixed today. guy: i want to take you back to hong kong. 27 minutes until midnight in hong kong. these are the pictures you are looking at. the subway being smashed by protesters. i am told once again they are trying to defeat the facial recognition software by using lasers. no sign of these protests dying down at this point, despite what we got earlier on this week from carrie lam. we will keep you updated. nearly midnight in hong kong and the situation by no means appears to be de-escalating. in fact, quite the opposite at this stage. sure wecontinue to make keep you up to speed with what is happening ahead of the
weekend, where we have seen violent protests over the last few weekends. let's focus on some of the new economic data out of europe's largest economy. germany's industrial production seeing a further decline in july as trade tensions and waiting business confidence continue to weigh on demand. joining us from frankfurt is bloombergs paul gordon. at this point, i feel fairly confident the german economy is having a tough time, yet at the same time, i listen to some of the hawks on the ecb and they do not think qe is necessary. they do not think the data justify taking another big step into the bond purchases. what is it going to take and how bad is the german economy? paul: the german economy is not in a good state. that is clear. that week start to the third quarter, the drop in industrial
production suggests it will probably be a recession. we will know that in a couple of months time. for the euro area, it is a growth slowed down. the main concern is whether the problems in the manufacturing sector lead to a loss of jobs. then you have a full on recession. the concern amongst policymakers on the ecb is that worse could come. we have the potential for worse trade tensions, direct protectionism from the u.s. on europe, that could be ahead. to use up all of your ammunition now, qe being one of the more powerful tools, potentially, not everyone agrees, you should at least hold it in reserve until those contingencies materialize. that is one of the key arguments. vonnie: what is the opposition to fiscal stimulus? we are out of the woods in terms of this being contentious post financial crisis. we are past that.
germany could do something like that and not be castigated from all of europe. paul: germany could act. it has the money to act. it is running a budget surplus. it has cut its total debt burden within eu rules. the issue in germany, the issue of whether things get worse again. that is important to germany. unemployment is still near a record low. factories are near capacity. if you pump money into the quepasa -- into the economy, how can you be sure it will help the manufacturing sector? it might help -- the german government said it wants to wait to see until things get worse. a similar story in other countries around europe. the ecb has to take up the burden and step up the monetary stimulus. the big question surrounding next week's meeting is whether mario draghi's
influence is enough to get the program he wants over the line. he is outgoing. is that a factor? does he have enough credibility to corral and make sure his view is the one that comes to the forefront, as he has done 70 times before? -- as he has done so many times before. paul: he is an extremely influential person. there is a pretty big push back compared to what we have seen in the past. even france appears to be wavering on the need for qe. we do not know that draghi will propose tui, but he did lay -- will propose qe, but he did lay all options on the table in june and july. it is clear he wants to do something, whether it is a rate cut or he wants to go bigger. it is something that will be tested at the meeting next week. guy: we will leave it there. thanks very much indeed. a big week next week for the
ecb. paul jordan -- paul gordon joining us from frankfurt. vonnie: boris johnson he is confident at getting a new deal with the eu. joining us is bloombergs brexit reporter tim roth. what does boris johnson do on monday? on monday, boris johnson will try to persuade parliament to give him that general election. he says it is the only time of the -- the only way out of the deadlock that has gripped european politics. parliament said no. he will try again on monday. guy: what does it take to get boris's election? tim: it takes the opposition to come on board. so far, the labour party, jeremy corbyn, and all of the other opposition parties do not trust boris johnson enough to give him that vote. they think he will use it as a distraction to crash the u.k. out of the eu. they will wait until they have
stopped johnson doing a no deal brexit and then go for an election after that. vonnie: what does johnson really want? to a certain extent he has to do the types of things he is doing. he did promise he would enact brexit. theresa may try to do it with a deal and that is clearly -- it did not go anywhere going europe has said it will renegotiate a deal. what is boris johnson's end game? tim: i think he is entirely focused on an election. he has shown no appetite for compromising with his own party. you remember earlier this week he expelled 21 rebel conservative mps from the tory party, including two former chancellors of the exchequer and the grandson of winston churchill, because they voted against his brexit plan. according to eu officials, he does not want to compromise and get it deal with the eu either.
they are unimpressed and we have been reporting out of brussels, they do not see any seriousness to the case attitude to those negotiations. my view on this is he is very focused on getting an election so he thinks he can win that big majority in parliament that theresa may failed to win two years ago. guy: what does he think he will win? there are various polls on a daily basis and they seem far from a certain guarantee the kind of majority boris johnson looking for. tim: nothing is certain. theresa may before she called the election in 2017 had a hugely. she was up in the polls and she lost her majority completely. johnson pitched himself as a winner. he won the mayor in london twice. he shopped the country and the world by leading the brexit campaign to victory in 2016 and he has promised his own party he will do it again. vonnie: i am not sure this is field.re or too left
what would be wrong with boris johnson failing, everything not going his way, he is no longer prime minister, but he can still go to the house of lords, his brother could make a comeback. given boris johnson has been accused of only thinking of himself, is that a likely scenario? tim: i think at some point boris johnson may be prime minister. he cannot do the job for life. if.s a matter of when, not right now the alternative is jeremy corbyn, and when we get that, the country will be asked to choose. you want boris johnson or jeremy corbyn. it looks a lot like the pound traders would prefer jeremy corbyn, because he is seen as a less risky option. vonnie: brexit reporter tim ross. thank you for everything this week. guy: let's check where european stocks have finished the week. we have settled out.
these are the numbers you are looking at. range comingtight through towards the back end of the session. .1%, the dax getting a little bit. the cac 40 fairly static throughout the later part of this week. we have seen oil stocks under pressure. do not forget to tune into bloomberg radio, the cable show coming up the top of the hour. half past 5:00 london time. we are going to get jay powell speaking in zurich. i think this is last time we will hear from him ahead of the fed rate decision. plenty of people tuning into that and we will carry that live on dab digital radio in the london area. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i am guy johnson. this is "the european close" on bloomberg markets. let's check in with the first word news with kailey leinz. kailey: job growth came up short in august and that may clear the way for another rate cut. payrolls climbed up below forecast 130,000, boosted by 25,000 temporary workers hired to prepare the 2020 census. china's central bank is injecting stimulus into economies facing new headwinds. it is cutting the amount of cash banks can hold is reserves. the pboc is lowering the required ratio by .5%. the cuts will release 126
billion dollars of liquidity. hurricane dorian has made landfall in north carolina's outer banks. dorian has been downgraded to a category 1 storm with winds up to 90 miles an hour. the hurricane is expected to get weaker as it moves up the east coast. the mastermind of what prosecutors call the largest hedge fund insider trading rings in history is out of prison. he was freed after eight years behind bars, two years early. he is mostly confined to his manhattan apartment for the remainder of his sentence. he was convicted on a seven-year plot to change down -- global news -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you good time for the stop of the hour. we are looking at french aerospace giant saffron. shares rising for a third straight day. emma chandra is in london with
details. emma: up around 10% over the past three days, but look at it over the course of the year, rising 35%. the maker of engines, interiors, and other parts on something of a role. yesterdayrom safran and they raise their profit outlook, saying they would comfortably increase by 20% this year. investors and analysts like that. we heard from j.p. morgan, upgrading the stock and taking the price target to a street hi of 156 euros. strong results were driven by gains in all business units. we should be able to show you those business units. aerospace propulsion is the biggest revenue driver. n is benefiting from is the surge of demand and air travel. that is a segment of the
business the company is now budgeting to grow by more than 10%. also supplies the engines for the boeing 737 maxygen. that is the jet that has been grounded since earlier this year. we are looking at deliveries of the engines for that yet and they have been rising, but rising less than expected. j.p. morgan saying they expect that to ramp up progressively. i'm also speaking with bloomberg intelligence and they say that in a way the grounding has been because ito safran increases demand for services down the reload -- down the road. that is your stock of the hour. vonnie: thank you. time your latest bloomberg business flash. more cuts are taking place at deutsche bank. bloomberg has learned the german lender is firing dozens of lenders and salespeople. that is the unit largely spared
in the first round of productions two months ago. elsewhere in germany, industrial production declined in july. trade tensions and falling business confidence hurting global demand. output was down .6% from june. the numbers point to more deterioration in the outlook for europe's largest economy. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. guy: let's take you back to hong kong. approaching midnight and tensions are rising in the city. seeny night, we have protesters once again smashing things up. signs, the subway system being smashed, pictures of umbrellas, the protesters using lasers to try to defeat facial recognition software. , 10 minutes until midnight in hong kong. no signs of things abating at this point at what looks like
that could allow hackers into your home. and like all doors, they're safer when locked. that's why you need xfinity xfi. with the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. and people inside from accidentally visiting sites that aren't secure. and if someone trys we'll let you know. xfi advanced security. if it's connected, it's protected. call, click, or visit a store today.
vonnie: let's get back to hong kong. live pictures of protesters in hong kong. close to midnight. tensions have been rising once as the eveningty hours arrived. a group of protesters gathering near police stations and metro stations. protesters also started fires and there are reports tear was used on the part of the police. it looks like tensions are rising. they are looking for other concessions following carrie lam's withdrawal of the extradition bill this week. wille meantime, jay powell
make remarks in zurich in a little over half an hour. it is his final comment before the fed blackout period. carl riccadonna joints now. any indication he might say something following today's jobs report? carl: that will be the general message. there is an expectation price to the market of 25 basis points in september, better than 50-50 odds of 25 basis points in -- jay and starting powell reinforce that message. he does not need to move the needle for october or december, but he will confirm, maybe not explicitly, but through his indirect messaging that further easing needs to take place. the fed does not want the fed funds rate to be the highest interest rate of the yield curve, and that is the problem at the moment. the given the data, are fomc going to get on the same page? up until now, not so much.
carl: you will see a defense from the known hawks. that is not particularly consequential. you might have a third to send from jim bullard who wants more easing, but those are -- jay powell still has very firm control over the committee, and all of these rumors of hawkish --istant and relegate renegade delegations of the fed -- jay powell is of the view that there is no reason to fight the inflation battle at this point of time when the outlook is getting more shaky. we saw evidence of that. i would hate to see jerome powell echo what we have heard from larry kudlow earlier in terms of the economic cheerleading and the resilience of the u.s. economy. he could signal the economy is doing fine but signaling signs of wear and tear from economic uncertainty more broadly and
trade tensions more specifically . for that reason, the fed does have to ease policy. a fine line jay powell has to walk of signaling the u.s. economy is not on the cusp of recession, but also not having a tone deaf cheerleading message. i think jay powell gets that after what we saw in december. vonnie: can he continue to ignore the president trolling him, just earlier the president saying where can i find this guy, jerome? to ignoreink he needs the president or not directly comment on this. powell will stick with the message. as ank he is excellent forecaster and excellent in terms of messaging. he has a cool hand luke persona, the kind of unflappable about that extraneous noise. i hope to see that continue. vonnie: that is coming up in about 35 minutes, that speech. our thanks to carl riccadonna.
coming up, we will have complete coverage of german powells speech in switzerland and balance of power with david westin is right after this show. that will take place during that. guy: let's take you back to hong kong. the situation is deteriorating. you are looking at live pictures . we are around four minutes away from midnight. this despite carrie lam earlier on this week climbing down on the extradition bill. protest,f this ongoing this rolling protest night after night. we will continue the coverage. this is bloomberg. ♪
where the world of politics meets the world of business. on the brief today, michael mckee from washington on the mixed u.s. job report. kevin cirilli from the white house on the trump administration plans for fairly may and freddie mac, and from on the, david welch antitrust investigation of automakers. let's start with you, michael. we were together when you announce the numbers. it is a mixed report at best. michael: the headline numbers not so good. 130,000 jobs created. if you look at private sector jobs, only 96,000, which is 50,000 lower than the consensus forecast. as you can see, the yellow line is wages. they have been rising. up .4 during the month and that left the year-over-year gain of 3.2%. economists had forecast a decline. that is good news and keeps hope