tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg September 10, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
month. stacks price and content up against other streaming content companies. the hits keep coming. mutual fund giant fidelity review states wework evaluation in march, adding the office rental companies pre-ipo woes. it was a big day for apple as the tech giant launched its newest hardware at its annual product launch in cupertino. among the new items, a new apple watch and a low-cost ipad, not to mention announcements tied to its new services, apple tv plus and apple arcade. as always, all eyes were focused on the freshest versions of the iphone. >> this is the iphone 11 pro and these are the most powerful and most advanced iphones we have ever built in a stunning new design. taylor: apple unveiled the iphone 11, iphone 11 pro, and iphone 11 promax.
the iphone 11 is about $50 r,eaper than the iphone x $700. the ipo -- the iphone pro will still hit the same $1100 mark. i am joined by ryan reith and mark gurman. mark, you have been covering these for years. how did today feel relative to years past? event, buter apple nothing earth shattering. it has been a while since apple came out with an entirely new hardware product. the most surprising thing was around pricing, tv plus, apple arcade, the price reduction on the iphone 11. in terms of hardware functionality, nothing to write home about. taylor: ryan, talk to me about the iphone, because it still makes up a decent amount of top line for the company.
what is your take away when it comes to the iphone? ryan: i agree with mark. i think the story line today is all about pricing. as markardware side, mentioned, you mentioned the $50 price cut. i think apple, then leading with services, partnerships that came out with arcade, and then getting to lower-cost iphone and watch pricing shows that they see we have pushed the threshold of the average consumer pretty high on price points and they have to be cautious of that because the important thing is making sure the base grows, which i think they are still doing a good job. taylor: are they maxed out at a $1000 iphone? ryan: i don't think we ever maxed things out because starting points are never what the highest point actually gets to. we are probably talking upwards of $1500 for the highest configuration.
i think there are going to continue to push things, but they are realizing the audience who will pay that price to use those features is smaller than it was when their highest iphone price was $800. it is a changing of the times. it is not apple only affected. their main competitors, samsung and huawei, are affected the same way. it is the changing times. i think we will continue to see price points well over $1000 with iphones. taylor: mark, i want to come into my terminal, gtv . what we are taking a look at is the average sales price, starting to rise a little bit. but on the right-hand column is the number of iphones sold, which is slowly dipping down. what does that tell you about where we are in the cycle? ryan: it tells us -- mark: it tells us there has been a combination of rising prices and a decrease in innovation.
the changes here are all about the camera. if you go to apple's website about the iphone 11 pro, 70% is about the new camera functionality. the last time we saw a real breakthrough change was the iphone x two years ago. we are expecting bigger changes next year as prices are coming down, so i think things will rebound in about 12 months. taylor: ryan, what do you make ryan, what do you make of this device no longer being an iphone but a camera that has some audio capabilities? ryan: it has probably been more than a phone for quite some time. it is a good question. i think the features they have introduced, some of which have made some people say that things like night mode have met up with what google has done and others, and that's great. what's important to recognize is what the average consumer actually does with their camera. to be honest, not just for apple
but for some others, some of the features they are integrating, a lot of that is done through software and not just modules and the number of megapixels. i don't think personality everyone is utilizing that to the full benefit. having said that, everyone wants the latest and greatest, so it is important they continue to innovate. they have been a market leader in photography and continue to be. taylor: the lowest price point comes in at $700. last year it was $750. does that concern you as it relates to apple or the industry? ryan: it doesn't concern me on either. to be honest, like i said, if i am apple and i am looking at a long-term strategy, there is many things going on. products we don't know about, continuing the product lines we have. the main thing for them is making sure they don't lose their install base and, more importantly, they grow it.
i think by recognizing there is a large number of users that is frustrated with the price points of smartphones in general, i think it is perfect for them to play into the fact, to say, listen, we are going to continue to innovate. you can still get a new iphone that's top-of-the-line quality that's not priced at $1000 or above and is actually going to be less than the same product line last year. i think the strategy is right. everybody has to test the waters in terms of pricing for the average consumer because nobody really knows where that stops. the last five years, the average bond prices have grown so much compared to the 10 years leading up to that, it is night and day. taylor: we won't get 5g until a year from now, so why do i care? mark: 5g in the united states is just rolling out now. the real impact is going to be in china. taylor: ryan reith and mark
opportunity to purchase a paid in health research that could lead to innovations to improve our health and the health of future generations. taylor: let me bring in and go over to apple's headquarters in cupertino, where creative strategies principal analyst carlee nebula daisy is standing by -- carolina milanesi is standing by. how much of a surprise was the watch five today? carolina: from a watch perspective, what was interesting is i think nobody has really thought about the always on-screen. and of people have complained that that was a feature that consumers wanted, especially consumers trying to switch from a traditional watch to a smartwatch. today was really about moving the envelope on the health side and really hearing apple clearly that this is an area where they
want to continue to develop, want to stay for the long run and creating a health research app speaks to that. taylor: is pricing $399 competitive or expensive? competitive99 is and even more is the $199 price point of the third-generation apple watch. we always get carried away about the latest models, but when you look at the lineup, that's where it is becoming more and more obvious that apple wants to get consumers that are part of their install base to venture into new devices. user and be an iphone have yet to find out what the value add of an apple watch might be. easierce point might be to get you to try than the $399. taylor: the $199 for the three
that they lowered today, you think that is a good thing the company is doing? carolina: absolutely. it is getting the entry-level more interesting for consumers. impasse ont of an the android side as far as android where and new devices coming to the ecosystem outside of fitbit, which i am sure today is going to look worried about the $199 price point. we have not seen a lot of uptake on the watch formfactor. there is lots of bands out there but not so many watches. taylor: you mentioned fitbit. i was looking at that earlier as well. how concerned should other wearables be today? carolina: i think they should be quite concerned. i think apple watch has become the smartwatch that the rest of the industry is looking up to and that 100 $99 price point is
super competitive with a device that doesn't feel like you are compromising your experience. that's the core part, you are not getting a device that you feel doesn't give you the key features that you want. so why not try and see what it can do for you? taylor: talk to me finally about integrating services and doing health research. what about the future of health and apple excites you? carolina: i think to me that's the next level. it is not just something apple wants to do for the goodness of the human race, so to speak, as far as making us all more healthy. it is really a good way to get people to see value from the ecosystem at a level where it impacts their lives. it is not just about entertainment, not about having a gadget, but really having a device that can make a difference in your life.
they played a video during the keynote that spoke to that, people that have had heart arrhythmia highlighted to them by the watch and being able to get to the hospital on time and prevent something that would have changed their life forever. that is very powerful. taylor: that was creative strategies principal analyst carolina milanesi. thank you for joining me. from the hotly anticipated ipo to will that even happen? that is the concern around wework's public debut. softbank is pushing the company to postpone its offering amid concern about a drop in valuation. earlier this year, goldman sachs pitched we work as a $65 billion business. now there is word mutual fund fidelity cut its stake in wework in march.
to discuss, ellen hewitt. the ipo is in flux. is this because of wework or softbank? >> i think it is a log of factors. we are seeing confusion at reporting suggesting some divisiveness within the wework and softbank relationship about how to proceed in the eye the anticipated ipo. this is something wework was planning since they first filed confidential documents to go public late last year, but as things have progressed, it looks like the evaluation has started to drop below what the company had expected and its most recent evaluation. taylor: how much of it is concerns about wework versus the market volatility and the tough ipo market this year? ellen: it is probably both. earlier in the summer when we were reporting on timing wework ipo, there was discussion about wanting to get the ipo done when
the market was in a good place. some revelations that came from the public ipo prospectus in august have stirred up more discussion about conflicts of interest within wework, in particular related to ceo adam newman. this is a company that has a complicated corporate structure as well as more transactions than your average company. taylor: i want to come into my terminal at gtv . with ipo's, we talk about equity markets. i want to fold this into a high level analysis of the bond market. we are for the first time dipping below par, the first time going back a few months. we are under par, $.98 on the dollar. without analyzing bond fundamentals, what does this tell you about the level of nervousness in the market? ellen: it indicates bondholders are having concerns about what the future of the bond can look like. it is a bond that wework first started selling early last year.
it has been above parsons about august, -- above far since about august. there was optimism an ipo could come and the cash infusion could help support the bond. i think as we are seeing that the ipo plan is in flux, bondholders are reacting with concern. taylor: after softbank, other big investors, namely fidelity, cut their evaluation of wework going back to march. what did they see that the market were wall street did not see until now? ellen: i am not sure we will know. when fidelity reviews their internal evaluations, they don't usually make it clear why. i think we can have some guesses , that they were anticipating an ipo and trying to react to the news knowing that the equity would be public. it is hard to understand. i think wework has been under a lot of scrutiny and as each
development has come forward, we have seen some changes. every time they announce, it seems like they are going to go public, then it seems like not. taylor: don't even get me started on how to discount the cash flows of future lease payments. coming up, five dollars. that's how much customers will pay monthly to stream apple tv, andared to $13 for netflix $15 for cbs all access. we break down competition in the streaming space, next. "bloomberg technology" is livestreaming on twitter. check us out and follow our global breaking news network@ tictoc on twitter. this is bloomberg. ♪
giant still pushes to become a services company. this holds true when it comes to the apple tv. >> all of this for the price of a single movie rental. this is crazy. [laughter] we are so excited about apple tv plus that we wanted to do something really special. so starting today when you buy an iphone, ipad, mac, or apple tv, you get one year of apple tv plus included for free. [applause] incentivees this new show that apple is really pushing into services or still relying on hardware? i am joined by forrester research analyst julie ask. services company or hardware company? it is increasingly becoming a services company. i think the announcement around apple tv plus is significant for several reasons.
it is the first time we have seen apple create content. apple tv plus arcade fills two gaps in the subscription services. it already has news, music. if you add that up, it is easy to see apple is getting $400 or $500 per year in services revenue from any customer. it changes their business model. they go from a device company that is trying to get a purchase every 2, 4 years, to a company that is connecting revenue monthly. the services revenue is already 15% to 20% of their revenue and these additional services make that even stickier. this is a different game and it becomes different for how you think about the company. taylor: how competitive is $4.99 a month? julie: you have to take into context that apple doesn't have the same kind of library that netflix or some competitors do. i believe it is a solid foundation and a good starting
point, especially with giving it away with new hardware purchases , it gives consumers a chance to try and experience it before they make an even bigger play. taylor: i want to come into my terminal at gtv . all you need to know is we are looking at a massive debt pile of apple. , should say massive cash pile more than $200 billion. is that cash they have been storing to now start spending to keep up with netflix? julie: i think that's one of the areas they can spend the money. they could also spend the money supporting game development as part of arcade. today indicates they will spend more money to support and create content and push forward with the services business. taylor: it was notable that the shares reacted not on the pricing of $4.99 but on the fact that when you buy a new device, you get one year free. the shares of their competitors
all started to fall. does that show apple is still reliant on the hardware? think if you look at their financials, yes, they are reliant on the hardware, still 70%-80% of their revenue. you are looking at something more about the future of what apple will be. if you look at how quickly their services revenue is going, the more they can get consumers into subscriptions, the stickier those services can be and the faster the revenue will grow. the switching costs on that will be higher. the other thing you have to keep in mind is the more services, content they roll out and the more consumers they get committed to subscriptions, the more valuable the devices become. those things play off one another. it shows the strength they are building with a vertical integration of hardware, software, services, content. each purchase makes everything
else more valuable for the consumer. taylor: what type of content would you like to see from apple so they are distinguishing themselves from their competitors? julie: it would be hard to say at this point what is missing. media tends to be the number one thing. gaming, music, and video are the top three things in that category, so it is hard to point and say there is a media category that is missing. it will be interesting to see further down the road if apple goes beyond payments and clouds and things they might do that are more horizontal. will we see apple go into subscription services for things that are nondigital? that would not be there for business, but it would be interesting to watch. taylor: julie ask of forrester research, thank you for joining me. coming up, we hear from microsoft president brad smith and his thoughts on the current trade tensions between the u.s. and china. this is bloomberg.
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this is bloomberg technology. i'm taylor riggs. we're getting some headlines now on teleton, setting its ipo offering of 40 million shares at $29 a share. we will continue to watch the pricing. now we continue to cover apple's product launch which includes a new apple watch, low-cost ipad, and three new versions of the apple iphone. one theme that did not come up, apple's current relationship with china or how the company's products have been impacted by tariffs. products like apple watch, air pods, and i met computers have
already been hit by this month's 50% tariffs. is now the right time to be putting a spotlight on the new products and will they be impacted by the ongoing u.s.-china trade war? ives, who, dan currently has an outperform rating on the company. also with me, june, of rosenblatt securities. dan, let me start with you. can you quantify for me to date the impact of china tariffs on apple's bottom line? dan: we view it in terms of the stock, about $20, $25 overhang. in terms of eps, and turning into fundamentals, those have been tepid. it comes down to the december 15 tariff. once that kicks in, that will be about 4% hit to eps if that goes through. continues, if that
they will pass that to the u.s. consumer. at that point, you could lose about six to 8 million iphone units in the u.s., given higher price points. taylor: what is your take on the impact so far on china tariffs? >> i think the tariff on the air pods, tablets and i watch has been affected in september 1. we see in a supply chain perspective, apple sped up the shipments of those products in august, which we believe after the holiday season, apple shipments for those products will slow down in q4. also, with iphone, we think this time apple launched three models at the same time in september compared to last year. they launched iphone xr in october. normal.little above q4 will be below seasonal.
that is why we have concern, even before the tariffs happen in december, apple shipment will slow down in november and december. taylor: dan, you said eventually apple could pass these costs down to the consumer. phone, how much more could they add onto the consumer? dan: that is the question. we believe it is about $100, $110 the average iphone will go up if the tariffs come in. they continue to be the poster child for the u.s.-china trade battle, which is why today was so important in terms of putting growth in terms of iphone 11. looking at the services piece. as this continues to be a black cloud over cupertino. taylor: jun, were you surprised today there was no mention of the china tariffs? i thought maybe tim cook would touch on it a little bit or try
to brush it off. any surprise it was a nonevent? jun: looking at iphone 11, the price is $50 lower than iphone x r. that gave room for the tariff happening in december. also, i think right now, i think they are trying to speed up the shipment to the u.s. market. before the tariffs have it in december, they can have enough the q1ry and look for sales. taylor: when you talk about that price, is that getting ahead of tariffs or is that maintaining or defending market share? jun: i think if you look at iphone xr last year, the retail price was about $750. but quickly, in the first half this year, apple dropped the price 30%, 35% lower.
iphone xr price is more attractive compared to iphone 11. i think even you put a 15% tariff in december, i think people would still go for iphone xr instead of iphone 11. yes? taylor: no, thank you. dan, let me come to you quickly. what do you take of iphone market share and are we seeing more huawei purchases in china as they start to get defensive and maybe a little more nationalistic as well? dan: i think the bark is worse than the bite there. no doubt, new look at the price cut, this is focused on china. 60, 70 million iphones in china coming up for an upgrade. given what you are seeing in china, that is the price cut that apple is doubling down. the xr was a swing and miss. that is what ultimately china is
keen to apple moving higher. that is why today was a step in the right direction. i think investors, the glass is half empty. they will continue to prove the doubters wrong. cook and cupertino came out swinging today. taylor: even though they don't have 5g and huawei and samsung do? dan: 5g is 2020. i think it comes down to the install base. 1.4 billion ios devices. this is an installed base story. many who have missed the story over the last six to nine months, you go back, even a new york city cabdriver was negative on apple, yet the stock continue to move up. it is an install theme story. taylor: wonderful roundtable. thank you both. that was dan ives and jun zhang. thank you for joining me. smithoft president brad
believes the u.s. government is treating huawei un-american. china's leading maker of networking it when it and mobile phones could be allowed to buy u.s. technology, including software from his company. smith sat down with tom giles for an exclusive tv interview about china and his new book "tools and weapons: the promise and perils of a digital age." digitale u.s. is the technology leader in the world today but one of the most boring things for all of us to remember is we don't actually invent or create technology by ourselves. if you buy an american technology product, i product that is made by an american company, in all probability, it consists of inventions that came from silicon valley as well as bangalore and beijing and dublin and london and melbourne and the like. we need to continue that. if we were to try to construct a
new digital iron curtain down the middle of the pacific, in all probability, we would hold ourselves back rather than hold someone else back. we need to keep that in mind. tom: but, there are some concerns that are probably valid concerns about the transfer of intellectual property across borders. concerns that the u.s. has raised about national security. what happens when there's theft of intellectual property on the part of the other party? your book is not just about outlining the problems, but you've suggested some solutions. one in particular has to do with allowing for the transfer of goods and i.p. but with limits. can you talk a little bit about what that might look like and how in practice we can ensure, we can ensure safety, national security, but at the same time, allow for this kind of much
freer trade? brad: i think that phenomenon is in part of what makes us so complex. there are important national security and intellectual property implications that need to be thought through, need to be addressed. we will in all probability have a new generation of technology export control rules in the united states. that's sensible. they are going to need to work differently from the way they worked in the past. in sensitive areas, technology that could have more important military uses, for example. you're still dealing with technology that may have important civilian uses as well. dual uses. we will need a regulatory regime that focuses on how the technology is being used. who the users are. only by doing that can we protect national security while promoting economic competitiveness. similarly with intellectual property, we need controls to protect i.p., but we have to strike the right balance.
the nuances really matter. tom: do we have the global infrastructure in place -- a lot of people are talking about how the trade system internationally is broken. do we have the institutions like implementat could these kinds of changes and reforms you are referring to? brad: i think one of the things we talked about in our book is the need for a new generation of multilateral and multi-stakeholder initiatives. we need to learn from the past. that's one of the points that we made. it's one of the reasons why we draw on historical stories. forward century moved because of institutions in part like the wto. clearly, there are new strains, new pressures, much more dissatisfaction with the global trading system today.
but, even as we do recognize the shortcomings, we need to build and build by bringing governments and companies together. we probably will need some new institutions to help us through this. but, we're going to serve ourselves best by focusing on what's broken and not breaking what's fixed. that's part of the balance we think the world needs to strike. tom: part of your discussion focuses on the different ways u.s. consumers and chinese consumers use technology. you have some interesting and colorful examples. can you talk a little bit more about how technology is used differently in the two countries and why that matters to our relationship with china? brad: it really does matter and i think you make an excellent point. it goes to the multifaceted nature of the u.s.-chinese technology relationship. on the one hand, there are frustrations that american
companies have about a lack of market access. i think those are legitimate frustrations as we describe. at the same time, we should not overlook the fact there are times when chinese consumers simply have different preferences. this is true of many populations around the world. a market tends to favor companies that address the different interests that consumers have. we've seen this at microsoft, as we share in the book. there is a wonderful innovation that we created in china -- it's a chat bot that is widely used by hundreds of millions of people in china. bringing it to the united states led to some surprising challenges. the same is true vice versa. i think you can look at the challenges that a company like amazon or a company like google has had in china. it's part of it, at least, relates to formidable local competitors that moved in some ways in a different direction to
taylor: one thing is more evident than ever -- apple wants you to spend its dollars on its services. and whether it is $4.99 for the ability to play more than 100 exclusive games on iphone, ipod or apple tv, or the same price to watch new apple originals, it is clear the future for apple leans heavily on its bevy of new services. to get the lowdown on what this
means for the iphone maker, i want to go back to apples headquarters where horace dadu is standing by. talk to me. what about services and apple excites you the most? today wasat we saw finally the pricing on these new services that are apple's own creations. we have exclusive games and exclusive video, or film content. what we didn't know was the price. we also didn't know how they would distribute or promote this. ofjust heard about the idea at least for movies and film, for having it free for one year for anyone by an apple device. that number of buyers today would be in the hundreds of millions. apple'sall base of customers are about a billion.
we will see a really quick trial going on and how quickly people will take up these services, as opposed to waiting for them to discover them on their own as was the case for news and music for the past few years. taylor: i want to come into my terminal here and surhow our audience basically revenue services and services revenue growth which is good, but has been slowing on a quarter over quarter, year-over-year basis. is service revenue growth growing enough? horace: well, there has been a slight slowdown. some of that was due to china. comps with china were difficult based on regulations that had been changing. i think we will see, and we have heard already that we are seeing a boost in the growth coming into the third quarter. i think overall though, these
new services will provide a quantum leap in the type of revenue we are going to be seeing. a lot of the revenue to date has been in apps and subscriptions. we now have apple's own content and it is going to be an interesting observation as far as many people will take this. again, we're looking at a base of a billion users. pockets is what they are going after. taylor: you mentioned this before. the stock not moved on the $4.99 pricing, but the fact it came within -- it was free if you bought a device. doesn't that show that apple is still heavily a hardware company, not a software and services company? horace: certainly, it is. more values has attached to the hardware.
microsoft, i want to quickly reflect on microsoft because it has a crisis of slowing pc sales for over nine years now. yet, the company is happily -- has happily converted users to subscription model and investors reacted very positively. i think that is what is likely to happen with apple and we are going to be counting users going forward. again, you can't do this without a strong hardware-based. i think the hardware base benefits by having great content as well. taylor: wonderful. horace, thank you for joining me. still ahead, a final recap of today's apple product launch. all the hardware and services announcements you need to know about next. this is bloomberg. ♪
launched its newest hardware and product launch in cupertino, california. a new apple watch, low-cost ipad, three new i found and a bunch of announcements tied with services. apple tv plus and apple arcade. to bring it all together, i'm joined by ben wood of ccs insight. what is your big take away from today? ben: i think we have seen a new chapter in apple's journey. the iphone was still a big part of the show but we have seen them bring services to the business. the announcement around whether you're doing with her tv product at $4.99 a month. a standout product was the apple watch dropping to $199. that will be a big product in the holiday season. taylor: the big thing that you noted was the iphone. huawei and samsung have 5g phones. apple does not. why do i care about today's announcement?
ben: there's a huge amount of hype around 5g right now. i have traveled all over the world, but we are right at the beginning of the 5g journey. for apple, they have recognized they don't need to jump on that technology right now. if you think about the profile of customers that are going to be buying an iphone or this series of products, there are have ay people who three or four euros iphone, a new camera and better battery life is good for them. delivering 5g on the next iphone is going to be absolutely essential for apple's competitiveness. taylor: you are the second person on the program to talk about the benefits and what a smart move it was for apple to move the watch price to $199. how nervous our competitors? ben: i would think they are pretty alarmed by that price move. i think having an apple watch
starting with a one is a big deal. i think moving into the holiday season, that is going to be huge news. fitbit, for example, will be looking at that given they were competing and that tier below the apple watch. it is a formidable competitive situation. furthermore, this is an unbelievable freight train of a product for apple. a multibillion dollar category. who would have thought that if you years ago? taylor: it was released with a lack of fanfare and finally it has taken off. the other thing that took off today was the apple tv. what do you make of $4.99 a mon th? ben: i was really surprised. i did a straw poll before the event started. for most people, they were thinking maybe $9.99. it shows a real statement of intent from apple. the fact they clearly want to get people hooked onto their content. they want to use that hook, that
aggressive price point to establish their position there. add into that with a new device, you get 12 months of apple tv plus. that is $60 in the box. you get the one-month trial on other devices. i think it is going to be interesting to see whether apple can land it in such a competitive space. taylor: ben, i want to come into my terminal here for our viewers. what we are looking at basically is the cash hoard of apple which is now topping $200 billion. where is the next acquisition? ben: you know what, i constantly think they are going to make a strategic acquisition here or there but it doesn't happen. they seem to be content in reinvesting in the business. making tactical acquisitions of small companies people don't expect. right now, i don't have an answer to that question. one thing is for sure, if they wanted to buy something, they could go get it. taylor: what is the biggest concern when it comes to
tariffs? ben: sorry, could you repeat the question? taylor: what is the biggest concern when it comes to tariffs and the fight between the u.s. and china as regards to trade? ben: absolutely, sorry. on the tariff side, the geopolitical situation is a major factor for all consumer electronics manufacturers now. it cannot be ignored. different people are taking different levels of pain. for apple, they are doing everything they can to make sure it does not distract them from their core business. there's a lot of lobbying going on to mitigate the risks that can come from that. but, quite frankly, your guess is as good as mine. there are negotiations going on. there are wider macro issues which apple needs to look out for. but, they are in a lucky situation where they do have products that people love. taylor: we will stay tuned. that was ben wood. thank you for joining me. that does it for this edition of
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