tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg September 13, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
brian: yes, i thought the real reversal yesterday was in the bunds. from the load of the high it was 40 basis points we moved. do?much more than the ecb not enough to get things going because there are limits and how much they can buy in bunds and the italian bonds rally. kind of a mess, and everyone is trying to digest how far central-banks can go. caroline: even though the ecb perhaps did not come in, 20 to easing would help the bond yields in europe, it would help with optimism to accent. the mood music is strong. yields backing up hugely. up 13 basisyear points. brian: european banks ended up
3% today, and that is one of the most beaten-down sectors in the entire world. whenever it was, they liked the latest turn. scarlet: investors in u.s. financials liked it even better. energy at 3.4%. three sectors closing better than 3% on the week, materials, energy, and financials. i guess those were your rally stocks. caroline: good old fossil 2000, --russell 2000, that, oo. what are you watching? >> this was a big week for the russell 2000, up percent on the week -- up 5% on the week. it is the exam performance and small-cap vs. large since the presidential election. if you take a look at this chart, the ishares small-cap fund, it tracks the russell
2000. investors have added $4 billion to this fund this month and it is the largest inflows since 2016. what investors say now is we will have to see continued outperformance were small-cap for this to true remarkable turnaround point. abigail? abigail: perfect segue to the sport. this is the value etf, taking a look at the big inflows, the most in many, many months. up 6.4%. tied into the rotation. the momentum etf down 2.4%. earlier this week, the chief technical analyst at oppenheimer had interesting take on this. he said it is not necessarily rotation. the move in value is bullish for the market overall. in yellow, low-momentum stocks.
last few years they have been tracking some levels of high momentum has been going better than low momentum. there is the surgeon low momentum. -- surge in low momentum. up ins more of a move low-momentum stocks and he would ever recommend cyclical low-momentum stocks. taylor: for me it is all about the big treasury selloff we are seeing. it is the rate at which we got year. the fact that we have been doing it for 8 straight sessions allowed going back on the 10-year, up 12 basis points on the year. you know have the 10-year finally starting to flirt back up with the 2% yield. quickly we have gotten to these levels, both of those are key technical levels
that we will be watching. what is interesting is if you come to my terminal at gtd go, -- jgb go, american amount upon thatws on one etf that tax , in longer-duration bond fund. we had a record amount of shares outstanding. we have come off of that a little bit today but very close to record. this highlights the divergence we are seeing. clearly not a classic risk-off trade, but flows into equities out of bonds. you are seeing a little bit of the matter that. a little bit of difference we are seeing in the market. joe: thank you, taylor and the markets team. still with us is our bloomberg opinion columns as well as the portfolio manager of the equity etf. we have of the rotation seen and the data that has been slightly better than expected and in light of the march up in
bond yields, did jay powell's job next week get harder or easier? on one hand things are looking better. on the other hand maybe what was an obvious move weeks ago is a little more dicey. how is he thinking about his job right now? >> i agree, i think it has gotten harder. investors want to see two things. first, a rate cut. but the thing worth paying attention to is the language of the press conference and the blue dots to come out with a forecast. people want to hear news that more rate cuts will be coming. i'm not so sure that is going to happen. look at the core cpi data over the last seven years. fke the four strongest months or core cpi, the last three have been in the top four. g difficultybi
for cal because that is what fed chairmen do, they look out for inflation. we are getting this contradiction between the desire for more rate cuts and what the data is pointing towards. scarlet: you know what has been a nice change, we don't spend as much time talking about how president trump's tweets about low interest rates affect the market. brian: the thing i wrote about in my column is he is less focusing on this idea that we need more rate cuts because the economy is weak and instead saying we need more rate cuts because the u.s. should be able to borrow at a cheaper level, which is a strange thing for him to be saying -- scarlet: unless you are thinking like a real estate developer. brian: exactly, and that is where he is coming from. yields have fallen so far on the long end of the borrowing costs for our country have not changed that much. as for the fed, the interesting because they have talked about how financial conditions have
these because markets think the fed is going to cut. it is this weird circular argument. the fed is going to cut, therefore things are better. it will be very interesting to see how they play that. rate cuts are far from certain. caroline: interesting that companies have been dining out on the lower borrowing costs. talking about a real estate i amoper can thinking about a real estate company that looks at itself as a technology company. we are looking at cloud fair doing pretty well. wework story, which is pretty unusual. i do think into is attendance -- in general there is a tendency to take the ipo market -- it is overplayed how much it is a barometer for the entire market. there are good ideas and bad
ipo's. you can tell when the market gets frothy with a lot of names that should not be going public going public. i do not draw too much inference from the state of the ipo market. joe: what else are you watching? we talked about powell. is traded the other thing that could send this market into one direction or another? eddy: absolutely. there was a research report that set for q3 earnings, companies that are trade sensitive, they do a good deal of their business outside the u.s., they could see double-digit earnings declines for q3. what i find ironic is what we are seeing lately is an abbreviated version of the trump trade that we saw after the and the beginning of 2017. speaking of trends, i
want to go back to a theme that was head of one several times. out of the cyclical and into defensives. when we talk about value and we talk about momentum, how do you define it? it seems to change if anyone who we are talking to and what you are looking at. eddy: overly technical point, but one of the things the financial crisis, that has worked a lot of the book value of financial news. the financial indexes have been corrupted as all of these financial stocks have been swept into the value index. it gives us -- i don't think it gives us an exact look -- the way it should be is how much the market is going to take on risk. what we have seen lately is much defensive, cyclical and you can see that by looking at the s&p 500 industrials.
is more ofme that it the cyclical story and that it looks like it is a moment in value story. caroline: interesting with technicals on equities. the 10-year yield searched the most since 2016, brian. you are bracing for the fed but boe.for the boj what do you think the music for central banks -- the mood music for central banks is going to be? brian: it is a question of what central banks can do. they want to ease because they have seen easing as a way to keep the economy's going. that weaw with the ecb need help from the fiscal side and that will be a major theme you hear throughout the central-banking world can we have done all we can come we are in this long expansion, and if we want to keep it going, we need some help. joe: speaking of the fiscal
side, $1 trillion in deficits through the first however many months of the year -- we are doing our part. we are doing our part there. brian: defends what kind of deficits are good vs. what kind of deficits are not productive deficits. infrastructure is the one people think could improve productivity for the entire country. scarlet: we feel it every time we leave the office and make our way home. thank you so much. portfolio manager of the equity etf, we thank you as well. that does it for "the closing bell" and for me. romaine bostick stepping in for "what'd you miss." wework insists on pushing ahead with its ipo. this is bloomberg. ♪
we are live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. i am caroline hyde. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. caroline: lackluster on the equity market. romaine: but the question is, what'd you miss? caroline: u.s. 10-year yield hitting a high on stronger than expected data. gaining ground, the s&p rises for the third straight week. pushing ahead --wework changes its corporate governance structure to calm investor concerns ahead of the ipo. some say the move does not address the problems. all that and so much more coming up. romaine: all right, let's get
into probably what is the talk of the week beyond what is going on in bonds, and that is what is going on in the ipo space. star trek record predicting winners and losers among technology ipo--a strong track record predicting winners and losers among technology ipo's. a lot of winners and losers. let's start with -- i guess they are a loser, they have not come into market yet. that is wework. they are obviously trying to appease investors here. is that going to be enough to get out the door? >> we use wework as an example of what we know about winners and losers. there are three things you can point to that when combined are really dangerous, and wework is a poster child for all of them. first is losses. when you are losing billions of dollars, that is problematic. the second is lack of transparency. when you are really opaque and
people cannot figure out why you are losing money so much and it doesn't give you the answers, that is worrisome. lastly, arrogance. investors really don't like that. it is a trust thing when you hand over billions of dollars to accompany that is not been public before. public investors have a hard job figuring out the right price for these things. it makes the job really hard. or: can you quantify that, the opacity question? your work does a lot with a scoring system and factoring in these other things. how do you think about quantify arrogance or the level of clarity that the company gives you? arrogance in general is hard to quantify but we do qualify the opacity. we talk about the of the station index. -- obfuscation index.
overtime those locations become profitable. untangling the mess is not easy to do if they don't provide the right numbers. no numbers at the unit level at all. when you are asking for $4 billion for a company that loses $2 billion a year. caroline: perhaps some of the rather more eyebrow-raising parts of corporate governance, fact that his wife was perhaps able to nominate the next executive, that has been struck. do you think that getting this overzealous confidence in the way that the founder controls the business and the family might is being changed enough to use those concerns?-- ease those concerns?
rett: what i would say is they were so far of the scalable for that they found themselves back to normal outage -- caroline: why hasn't softbank and the like said this is really unusual? rett: it's a really good question, because there are a lot of capable, experienced, knowledgeable, smart people around the table. as far as all the people in the document this morning, changing the governance structure, making it on the way to a real board but not quite, uber did all this housekeeping way before they attempted an ipo. these guys have put themselves in a position where they're kind of doing some of it now but only when forced, which makes it hard for investors to trust them. you have to trust them because it could be that given the type of business this is, the equity is worth nothing. when you're losing $2 billion a year. on theden of proof is
scene to explain why the equity has value 20 votes per share versus 10 votes per share. romaine: let's not have wework suck up all the energy -- rett: thank you. stories,two different saldivar club, and cloudflare, which did well. rett: it is the normal market. the crowdstrikes of the world have all done fine. some of them have losses but they don't have the three strikes of opacity and arrogance. romaine: and they have legitimate growth stories, identifiable growth stories. rett: wework does well but they don't spend two dollars for every dollar of revenue growth. that is why opacity is a problem for these guys. it is bifurcated. investors separated into its own category. dogs -- s, data
joe: what do you make of the awful debut for smell direct club? didn't seem like there were any indications of lack of concern and that of total bomb -- and then a total bomb. rett: i hope it rekindles discussion of what happened with uber. this is the same but more. how do you close the book at one price and have a trade 20% below that price the next day? it is like a management issue as opposed to anything that has to do with clear plastic braces or whatever it is. caroline: is this something that ipo bankers are grappling with, something that price providers are grappling with? or isa citadel problem, it jpmorgan and goldman sachs? rett: it is all of their problem, and when you are not transparent and it makes the job of raising these things that much more difficult, and it is already an intrinsically very difficult thing to do.
when things, along like beyond at -- nobody can explain why the company trades the way it trades -- once the narrative goes away on wework, it makes it difficult for any participants to know what to do, which is why softbank is stepping in and will buy a quarter of the deal at $750 million because that is the signaling that helps people anchoring for something that israel. -- that is real. caroline: go long. joe: great stuff. coming up, the s&p ending three days of gains. more analysis on the market next. this is bloomberg. ♪
joe: treasury is extending the september tumble. with the benchmark 10 year yield surging the most since 2016 amid stronger-than-expected u.s. economic data. joining us for more economic analysis is mike regan of bloomberg news. if you only follow the stock market headlines, no one would know what a crazy week this was. mike: absolutely, especially if you look at the indexes -- joe: you are just a guy who checks the dow. mike: right, right. what is fascinating to me about this whole week we talk about this factor rotation -- if you took a trader who are taking the last 20 years off and you asked what happened to this week, this vocabulary has taken over our lives. and old-timer would say people moved out of the fences in
cyclicals. i hate to call real estate defensive, proxy stocks. the bond market is clearly just pushing and pulling the stock market in each direction. the class signal from that would be economically bullish. people are getting back into the cyclical stocks and value being the proxy for the cyclicals -- commodities, financial, that sort of thing -- and out of that defensive yield proxy stocks that had been the momentum trade in the vocabulary. wouldk the old-timers take that as a bullish signal. i'm not sure. romaine: ok, but it is not the old-timers running the show now. it is the young guns. we have seen the correlation between what was going on with bonds and rates market and what was going on with stocks. when you start to see the 10-year back and the 30-year and
two-year also drift up, what is the threshold where that starts to take a bite? a huge part of the equity rally that we had back in july and writer that was because of the drop in yields. michael: i think you are seeing part of it today. people are still selling those defensive yield proxy, what had become the momentum trade -- still smelling that are not buying as much of the financials, commodities, and we have the flat to down market right now. the question is what is really in yields, partly it is that we had this insane august bond rally, biggest role in treasuries since the financial crisis. the economic data is improving a little bit. not that much. trade tensions are improving. but that is a slippery slope right there. the one thing not a lot of people are talking about
vis-à-vis the move in treasuries this week is the huge amount of corporate bond issuance. the corporate bond market reopened after labor day and it was off to the races, because there had been this bottleneck in issuance because it is august -- caroline: oxygen or what? michael: there's a little bit more yield in ig. all of the ig supply -- it is over $100 billion so far. 40-some billion this year alone. necessarily appear economic --
>> i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. the european commission president will meet with boris johnson on monday for brexit talks. the european commission said today that they will have a working lunch in luxembourg. >> he said from the very beginning that he was looking forward to working constructively with prime minister johnson. the reason the lunch is taking place in luxembourg is because the president has to go straight to charles burke afterwards. mr. johnson agreed to come to
.uxembourg to facilitate >> prime minister johnson's envoy has been holding talks in brussels, but no breakthrough is made. prime minister johnson wants the irish border provision removed from a legally binding brexit agreement sealed by his predecessor, theresa may. venezuela's foreign minister says that with or without john bolton the trump administration has a mechanism for war with venezuela. bolton pressed for president maduro to step down so that the u.s.-backed opposition leader could assume power. yesterday, trump tweeted that bolton was "holding me back" on venezuela. continued, i am sure that the people of the united states sooner or later will govern in a
real democracy, not a plutocracy of two impossible parties. felicity huffman has been sentenced to two weeks in prison for rigging her daughter's sat scores in the college admissions scandal. huffman is the first parent to be sentenced in the case that sparked a debate over privilege and class. paying $15,000d to have her daughter's sat score boosted. others chose not to seek plea deals and are fighting the indictment. eddie money, who left behind a career as a cop to become o one of the top-selling rock stars, has died. money died this morning in los angeles. the singer had recently announced that he had advanced cancer. nypdrved two years as an
officer before moving to california to pursue a career in music. eddie money was 70 years old. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: thank you. all the front runners in the democratic presidential race shared one stage in houston. the field shrinking to 10. joe biden and elizabeth warren came face-to-face at last. even the former vice president largely in the same place as he started. >> i know that the senator says she is for bernie. well i am for barack. i think the obamacare worked. >> people who love their premiums? >> yes, we are going to take your ar-15's, ak-47s.
>> obviously he has been tweeting up the ammunition. >> if we don't set the rules, we are going to find ourselves with china setting the rules. caroline: here to take us through the last night of debate is lanhee chen. he works on high-profile political campaigns. where is the division? where is the separation? it seems that we've come down to basically health care. lanhee: health care was a topic of division. but some of the fireworks we saw were not between the people we thought the fireworks would be between. there was a personal attack it seems to me between secretary castro and vice president biden. the conflicts we were expecting between elizabeth warren and joe biden, between bernie sanders and elizabeth warren, never really materialized.
health care remains a topic of division. this is going to be a big topic of conversation next fall. curious based on your experience. at this stage, do candidates worry about taking positions that may become more difficult to defend in a general election? or is it, i've got to get the nomination first? lanhee: the general election is always in the back of your mind if you think you are a credible candidate. back in 2012 when i was working with mitt romney, we were aware of the fact that he was likely to come out of that primary field. we were thinking about how what we were doing might impact the general election. but if you don't win that primary, you are not going to be anywhere near against a competition against the other party's nominee. what you are seeing in this
primary with the democrats is folks moving to the left. that is the obvious dynamic they have to counteract next year. romaine: how much to the left are they moving? there's sort of this issue, trying to differentiate themselves from each other. we had questions about the economy and trade policy which the candidates didn't differentiate themselves much from the current republican administration. not a single one of them said they would roll back the trade war that trump has led us down. lanhee: the challenge for last night was that the disagreements were on style, not substance. who may haveidate had some substantive differentiation with the president was joe biden. he didn't get to talk about the trade relationship with china. that is the candidate that might provide some differentiation. we didn't hear a lot about the
economy generally last night. to the polls,t they tend to vote on the economy. these are topics i expect will be explored in the next debate. certainly the differentiation on china was not there. it tone: how risky is tear into each other and previous administrations on your own side to a certain extent? is it simply when you talk about the personal attacks? i assume you are referring to the age and memory element of this. does that backfire? lanhee: it could. particularly when you are talking about going up against donald trump, someone who could use this as ammunition. in terms of the attacks on obama, last night you saw the field, around two loving president obama again. in the previous debate, you had people assailing the obama
agenda. last night you saw them come back around to embracing president obama. president obama is very popular in that field still. so there is a danger in attacking president obama and there is a danger in attacking on personal attributes. i think they have to watch that dynamic a little bit. sometimes these things can spin out of control and you attack because you think it will give you an advantage. joe: back to what you were saying about tariffs. i was struck by that question. i didn't hear any of the candidates say they would totally reverse the tariffs. which is kind of surprising to me. setting aside the electoral aspect, what do you think it says about this moment right now that no one is running on the good old-fashioned free-trade is a good thing argument? lanhee: the argument for free
trade hasn't been forcefully and articulately made for some time. this is a trend that reflects in the electorate some feelings of anxiety about the impacts of free-trade on certain elements of the electorate. i don't think republicans or democrats have been thoughtful enough about what the impacts have been. there is this element of it being less popular. china, i don't see a lot of people defending china, because it is not particularly popular to defend the chinese and xi jinping. so you are going to have the aggressive posture against china. all these candidates are going to outdo themselves on that. it is difficult if they agree with what trump is doing. romaine: i want to turn quickly to the republican side. you have a couple challengers to president trump.
they probably have zero chance of getting the nomination. but do you think having those folks in this race against trump , that that could do any sort of damage to his standing with voters on the republican side? lanhee: i don't see any of the three declared candidates aside from president trump -- that is joe walsh, mark sanford, bill weld, i don't see any of them giving any difficulty to the president. in,here are others who jump let's say jeff flake, john kasich, if they jump in, it is possible that the president could be wounded. but i don't see the current field being much trouble for the president. much, lanheeu very chen of the hoover institution. as we wereg of ipo's earlier, made well, the genes company, they are going public.
they don't just do denim. romaine: the whole nine yards. i don't know. is it a retail company or a tech company? joe: i'm sure it is a tech company in some way. all right, outrage over vaping has been intensifying as president trump vows to ratchet oversight of the troubled industry. >> we are looking at vaping very strongly. it is very dangerous. children have died. people have died. we are going to have strong rules and regulations and some very important information very shortly. joe: here to discuss the industry and other things is the founder of navy capital. he manages a portfolio that is focused on the cannabis sector. thank you very much for joining us. is anw that vaping
increasingly popular way, especially in places where it is legal, to consume marijuana. how concerned should the industry be if there is a regulatory crackdown or just people are concerned when they read headlines? >> the industry has been screaming and yelling for more regulation for some time now. what you have is illegal products, counterfeit products, penetrating the supply. in states where there is no legal regulation, you have health risks. romaine: the headlines sort of consume people. consumers see those headlines and it scares them away. what progress have we made? at the beginning of the year, there was a push. >> we haven't seen the black market being enforced the way we were hoping. cannabisrnia, 80% of
sales are illegal. decriminalized almost in every state, there is not an incentive by law enforcement to regulate the industry. we hope this is a call to action, when you have people dying from a legal product. this is similar to prohibition in the 1920's when bathtub gin was killing people. caroline: what sort of regulation do you want to see? >> we want to see sales tracking for cannabis. for e-cigarettes, you want to see more testing. a lot of what is going on on the nicotine side, you don't have testing on the end product. you need to know what is going into somebody's lungs. on the cannabis side, we don't believe the issues being raised now are related to legal tested products. joe: vaping hasn't been around
that long. no one totally knows what the effect is on your health from consuming chemicals in this way. could you see some other delivery mechanism taking its place, edibles or beverages or smoking? >> you are seeing that now. you are seeing a down tick in sales in california. people are afraid. we think people are going to move to beverages, topical's, edibles, and different things. romaine: some of the companies you are investing in, how are they protecting their intellectual property, the concoctions they devise, and make sure they are not being knocked off or they don't get tainted? >> it starts at the plant, with the genetics. every cannabis plant has its own set of cannabinoids.
raw garden is gaining the most market share. a lot of it is due to their genetic profile. time, monsanton will come knocking. caroline: will they have to start marketing to ever the crisis perception that is building? >> i think that the more people go out and say, we have a safe, tested product, the more the consumer says, i don't want to buy an illegal product. california, not that much conversion to the legal market. multiple we are seeing illegal dispensaries open. joe: why do people still participate in the illegal market in places where you can just walk in like an apple store? >> you are not seeing a big crackdown on illegal stores and products. municipalities are not allowing
illegal dispensaries. if convenience is the factor and cost, you are not seeing the conversion. illegally, it it is a significant discount and often more convenient. caroline: we will see how the regulators respond. great to get your expertise. quick check on the headlines. health officials in the u.s. and carcinogen was found in the drugs. zantac is made by sanofi. forever 21 is set to close at least 100 stores as part of a plan to bankruptcy. the apparel chain is working on a deal to get 75 million for its restructuring. forever 21 operates about 800 stores in the u.s. and latin america.
and the wealth management unit raised globalse equities to overweight. suisse says equity markets will benefit from the new prospects of the u.s. china trade deal. coming up, this falls best movies seem to share a common theme, how class warfare storylines have taken over the most prominent movies of the year. this is bloomberg. ♪
2014. bloomberg.com has a story on the salmon which is here to challenge free range do not. the salmon from new zealand is a fatty fish with marbled meat and a sumptuous texture. the cost is at least twice the price of atlantic farm salmon. meanwhile, tictoc on twitter is -- is thriving. director quentin tarantino transports filmgoers to a fairytale land 1960's. [indiscernible] follow all those stories
on your terminal, on bloomberg.com, and on tictoc on twitter. romaine: staying with the big screen, hollywood movies have always demanded a villain and the man with the money has been the easy target. offerings at this year's toronto film festival are highlighting class struggle like never before. sakoui us now is anousha from los angeles. before we get to what is the movie of the week, hustlers, i want to start with another movie you mentioned, this movie i believe out of south korea, that seems to kind of focus on praying on the rich. >> right. it is by the director who is very well known in hollywood and among some sinner files, having , and the filmokja
snow peers sir, and he has this , and it is very much a film that is being talked up a lot. that about a poor family lives downhill from a rich one and they try to incorporate themselves into that rich family and try to con them, i guess. but it is getting a lot of praise. it will be great to see when that is released in the u.s. joe: i understand why filmmakers and critics like the idea of a movie about scamming rich people. do people think this is a good theme at the box office? >> i was thinking about this before. we are looking at hustlers. there's joker as well, which people have said is a manifesto for incels. he gets beaten up and he's a loner and turns on people.
but as you know, people are kind of looking for the unusual with stories. it is very topical in the wake of the financial crisis, the disparity between different groups. filmmakers are looking into how everyone survives that and telling different stories. caroline: joker, this is an interesting reprisal. >> really fascinating. it won the top prize at venice. mainstreama kind of adaptation for warner bros. that is going to be released soon and warner bros. have gone a way of expanding the d.c. comics by taking more unique looks. that is what this joker is, darker. caroline: meanwhile, frozen waye d.c. 2, which i'm sure will be an aggravation to every parent out there.