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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Americas  Bloomberg  September 26, 2019 7:00am-9:00am EDT

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alix: investors stick with defense. impeachment consumes d.c. investors burrow into the dollar and treasuries, even with stocks near record highs. wins for farmers and wineries. president trump declares victory and says a deal with china could come sooner than you think. peloton, the latest unicorn, prices at the top of its range. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday, september 26. i'm alix steel. in the markets, we are still 0.1%, equity futures rise a stones throw away from record highs. in another assets, it is defense. how long can it sustain that level? yields down three basis points. time now for the global exchange.
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we are going to bring you today's market moving news from around the world. joining us from hong kong is yvonne man, from london, emma chandra, from washington, kevin cirilli, and michael mckee joins us in new york. in hong kong, chief executive carrie lam will hold her first public dialogue in response. to the protests yvonne man is response to-- in the protests. yvonne man is outside the venue. what can we expect? about several hundred ,eople are out here, chanting "not one less," referring to the five demands protesters have. could bring some pictures of what it is looking like right now, about 150 people chosen from 20,000
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applicants in the public to take part in this dialogue, the first is the public and with the government, a town hall style with the governing in the middle alongside carrie lam. they will be randomly picking people from the audience. they have three minutes to ask a question. we will not hear typical q&a. they will ask a couple of questions first, and they government will answer in bulk. a lot of questions as whether we will get any meaningful type of q&a tonight, but carrie lam wrote an op-ed in "the new york times" that she is ready to listen, she is all ears, and she is ready to take harsh criticism tonight. alix: thank you so much. u.k. prime minister boris johnson came out fighting in the house of commons after he was forced to fly back from the u.n. following his defeat in the supreme court. he demanded an election, sparking uproar and angry exchanges in parliament. pm johnson: the public don't want another referendum.
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what they want and what they demand is that we honor the promise we made to the voters to respect the first referendum. alix: bloomberg's emma chandra joins us now. we thought it was feisty when theresa may was prime minister. what happens now? emma: certainly spicier than under theresa may. that change you heard from the prime minister one of the calmer moments in parliament right now -- in parliament last night. sparkingaccused of conflict, with many calling on him to moderate his tone. a number of mps lambasted him for his line which -- for his language. a number of people saying this will make getting any brexit deal passed in parliament more
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difficult. remember, boris johnson does not command a majority in parliament. we are hearing from european union officials that a deal is looking more likely because of the use of this language. we are also seeing the pound -- looking at the pound slide. the prime minister at the moment meeting with mp's from his own party, and also meeting with his cabinet later today, so we should get more of a sense of where we go from here. alix: thank you so much. here in the u.s., we are waiting for a flow of data out this , and thea read on gdp fed. michael mckee is here. but kemeny expect -- what can we expect? michael: most of the data sort of tertiary. that gdp report, we already know
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the number is about 2%. not much expected in today's second revision. we will be more interested in the income and inflation numbers for august out tomorrow. however, there are some numbers that don't get much publicity but are worth checking in on. the u.s. advanced trade balance, for one. it shows the president's efforts on the trade war front aren't really paying off. it's about 10 million -- about $10 billion a month wider than before he got elected, and it is expected to widen again today as retailers order up for the holiday season. otherng of retailers, the number, retail inventories. if you are a retailer, what do you do? you see strong sales, but also fears of recession. do you order strong for the holiday season?
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retail sales tanked in the fourth quarter last year. we also get a lot of fed speak. we will see if anybody comments on the latest numbers. probably not, but we will probably hear more about the repo issue and see if anyone else adds to what rob kaplan said yesterday. he is speaking again, that the u.s. is going to need more qe the next time we go into recession. alix: thank you very much. in washington, d.c., it is the threat of impeachment hanging over president trump. he's defending his phone call with the ukrainian leader, saying there was "no push, no pressure." pres. trump: the witchhunt continues, but they are getting hit hard on this witchhunt because when they look at the information, it's a joke. impeachment for that? when you have a wonderful meeting, or you have a wonderful phone conversation? alix: kevin cirilli joins us with more. what can we expect today? kevin: in just over an hour, the acting director of national intelligence is set to testify
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publicly before the house intelligence committee. he will face questions from the chairman of that committee, adam schiff, the democrat from california, about that whistleblower complaint that now several lawmakers have reviewed. democrats are saying this has only led to more questions. expect democrats today to try to get more documents, more information, and more details from joe maguire, as well as from the apartment of justice as it relates to this. republicans are still falling in line with president trump. no contingency in the house of representatives for the republican party has broken with the president as it relates to impeachment. i'm also going to be keeping a careful watch on what comes out of the closed door hearing later this afternoon, with the director of national intelligence meets with the senate intelligence committee. that will be behind closed doors, and again, that comes at a time when president trump is very much trying to keep tabs on those republican senators from
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breaking away with this investigation. alix: thank you so much. really appreciate that, bloomberg's kevin cirilli. we will be bringing you part of that intelligence hearing at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. n raising more than $1 raising billions in than $1.2aising more billion. coming up, more on your morning trade and analysis on the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: now it's time for bloomberg first take. we are going to give you the news, and you get the analysis on the markets. joining me are former trader and voice of bloomberg macro squawk vincent cignarella, chief equity adams,ist gina martin and steve chiavarone, federated investors portfolio manager. the first thing i want to focus on is this impeachment thing, and i say thing because no one really knows how this is going to go down, but how are investors looking at this? not caring at the moment. when we first heard about it, the market sold off. everyone ran to havens. it is the typical flight to safety. as things are unfolding, the way the market is going to look at this is how the president holds up in his own party. is this going to be a clinton impeachment or a nixon impeachment? in the clinton impeachment, markets took it quite well. during the nixon time, his
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popularity within his own party faded, which is why it actually caused his resignation. should trump's popularity, which is something like 90% at the moment, fade, markets will react quite negatively. at the moment, i think they are going to take it in stride. gina: i generally agree. i don't want to minimize the potential impact of this, but frankly, what else is new? democrats and republicans hate each other. we are going to constantly battle in washington. this is the environment of political turmoil we've been in. i think the markets also have a lot of other. things to worry about right now obviously -- a lot of other things to worry about right now. obviously financial conditions, what is happening with trade, those things are probably going to continue to dominate the market's attention. if we come out of this economic malaise and start to recover, then maybe there is material risk of this limiting risk appetite, but frankly, risk
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appetite doesn't exist right now already, so it is just another thing to pile on the long list of worries the market has contended with for the last 18 months. steve: i think for now it is noise. the impeachment has to be unimpeachable. what i mean is there has to be such clear and incontrovertible proof of wrongdoing that people on both sides want to remove him from office for this to be a risk in the short run. otherwise, what you are left with is the political implications for 2020 and what that means for tax reform. it's not clear there's a winner or loser for either side at this point. this could very well take the air out of the media coverage for someone like elizabeth warren, for example. alix: someone for bloomberg opinion talked about this, and said it could be a positive because you could see republican senators in states sensitive to trade push and say, we are going to come out against you because we want to trade deal and you're not delivering. no? he is so not buying it.
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[laughter] vincent: it works for the democrats as well because the reason to get a trade deal done now or the motivation, the water has been poisoned. the well is poisoned. you can't get usmca through. how are we going to get a china trade deal through? alix: so that does has implications. the impeachment doesn't come about the noise in that respect noise-- doesn't, but the in that respect could. vincent: the motivation for democrats to give the president a win before the election is zero. we are going to get the low hanging fruit. l, are going to get an ag dea a park deal. pork -- a pork deal. pork because of the swine in china, they need it. but changes in the way people do business, not going to happen. there's no motivation to get that done, so we are just going
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to go sideways. steve: i think what's important is the market isn't waiting for anything in washington. it's not as though we were expecting this robust legislative agenda that now, all of a sudden, is gone. the market is in a place where we are focused on the fed, we are focused on the underlying fundamentals. we are not sitting on the verge of a tax deal we need. the market isn't clamoring for fiscal stimulus, although we could probably use some on the infrastructure side. it's not as though those things were in the cards anyway. we had the status quo, which is nothing coming out of washington, with a little more rancor. there's a surprise. alix: but i don't feel like that's resected in positioning, really. top positions are utilities, cash. that doesn't say we are good. that's as we are scared. gina: absolutely. there is no risk tolerance. no one is actually putting new money into this market on a long basis. it is all very short-term, and
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it is trading around the day-to-day. we are stuck in this environment because we have no catalyst for improvement going forward. we also have no catalyst for further deterioration emerging. i think the most important thing to watch here is if this impeachment proceeding becomes truly damaging to economic growth. the only way that will happen is if consumers look at this as, you know, this is truly going to change the outcome for the economy. this is going to restrain my potential income growth in the future. tos is, therefore, going restrain economic activity because consumers slowdown. that is the most important thing to watch here because we have already priced in ongoing trade risk, tighter financial conditions, a higher dollar, global malaise. what we want to watch for on the downside is absolutely what has been the strength deteriorating, the strength in the u.s. economy in the u.s. consumer. vincent: i think gina makes a
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great point. we are looking at fast money right now. this is not long-term investments because no one knows what the long-term is going to look like. alix: so dollar index 99 does not worry you. vincent: no, we talked about this last week. the dollar, i'm just looking at a chart right now, it bounced off the levels we talked about. it's heading right where i thought it would go, and i think it could extend. when you look at the globe, where do you want it to be? the u.s. -- i'm not going to say brexit -- [laughter] alix: it is my goal every day not to have that on the table. vincent: in other parts of the world, there really isn't an alternative. alix: someone with goldman sachs talks to bloomberg the other day, and that's pretty much what they said. take a listen. >> based on the flows we see with our client base, more money headed into the united states, probably a bit of a safety mechanism. the united states seems to be
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the safest place to put capital. the u.s. is still a strong, vibrant economy. alix: steve, i interrupted you with john waldron. steve: to that point, i think you could misinterpret the strength in utilities and reads here and call that just a safe play. that's an element of it, but let's not forget we had the three year yield go down. one of the upside risks to the market that i think you don't want to sleep on is regardless of whether or not the economy is in malaise, if it is softening, or if it stays relatively consistent, if we are going to crush yields, parts of the market that offer attractive yields could get a bid here. if we are going to wake up in a year's time and the federal funds rate is 1.5% or lower, with a relatively flat yield curve and international being what it is, that dividend on the s&p looks real good. alix: all right, thank a lot. vincent was so agreeable in this one.
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bloomberg's macro squat, he's going to work on that. chief equity stratus -- macro squawk, he's going to work on that. chief equity strategist, gina martin adams. steve chiavarone a federated global investment is going to stick around. coming up, poking all things oil and energy, including what we see between iran and france. we will break all that down, plus trade in soybeans, at one a clock p.m. eastern. coming up on this program, peloton shares price at the top end of the range. we will break down the ipo market. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: british airways
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owner iag is warning that pilot strikes will cut profits. week'sning follows this collapse of u.k. tour operator and airline thomas cook. shares of abn amro plunged by the most in four years in amsterdam after dutch authorities opened a criminal investigation into the bank under anti-money laundering laws. the prosecutor is accusing the bank of failing to report suspicious transactions and not conducting sufficient checks on its clients. than 1.2as raised more billion dollars in its ipo. the company known for its stationary bikes that allow users to stream workouts live or on-demand priced shares at $29 each. that was the top of its targeted range. the listing values peloton at about $8.1 billion. shares are expected to begin
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trading on the nasdaq today. that is your bloomer business flash. alix: for more on peloton, steve chiavarone is still with me. we are right now looking at the peloton treadmill, because there is one, and it is cool. would you be interested in this kind of company? steve: the way we approach ipos at federated, particularly for a growth franchise, you don't have to be profitable today, but you have to have a scalable business model and cash flow growth. i'm not prepared to talk about a particular ipo, but if you have a scalable business model and cash flow growth, that is a business we are going to be interested in. those companies where every dollar of revenue comes with a dollar and a half of extra expense, those are the ones we tend to shy away from. casual growth here is pretty good, actually. alix: in that circumstance, how long do you give companies? xke ok, we will give you amount of time. steve: we are long-term holders
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of ipo's. if you look at our small-cap fund, 50% of the names and today were purchased on the ipo overtime. we generally don't slip in and out of ipo's on a short period of time. if we had a good run way towards , the question is, do i have a pathway? is there a business model that suggests real growth? if there is, we will take a shot at it. alix: we have a chart that shows some of the biggest ipo's this year versus the s&p, and how most of them lagged at the end of the day. what do you feel about that? steve: you got a lot of ipo's coming to market that were idiosyncratically different. for example, companies like uber and lyft that are really mature businesses that have slowing growth. i think that is less attractive sometimes in the ipo space.
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you have companies that don't have a pathway towards earnings you can see in any kind of reasonable timeframe. then you had a little bit of negative press recently that has pulled the whole class down. but when you look underneath some of those big names, there's been a really good class of ipo's through health care, in the consumer space, and it is not always things that are exciting. it is things like grocery outlet that have done ok. beyond meat, which is like a science project on public, anyway. with all the ipos coming to market, it's a sign of innovation. there's more shots on goal if you can play in that space. you still have to stay disciplined and look for castro -- look for cash flow growth. drama, is the wework that good or bad for the ipo market? i feel like softbank made weird choices and had to backtrack fast, but maybe it is a corporate governance thing in a good way. steve: i think the market regulates itself, and it doesn't accept something that doesn't
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pass muster at a price that doesn't clear. i think what's most important is what are the functionings of the equity market. i think all of those circumstances are in place right now which should be good for ipo's. people look at the 2000s as under the dotcom bust. there were a lot of companies that busted, but there were some really good ones as well, and the failures of those companies pave the way for future success. alix: coming up, the u.s. and japan ink that limited trade deal. impact on global growth. this is bloomberg. ♪
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is it still going to be rotation to safeties? the our performer in europe are u.k. equities as brexit this function continues. have euro-dollar down 0.1%. the dollar continuing to climb higher. the dxy over 99. the spread in the u.s. continues to flatten. commodities not getting a real boost, so it feels like the equity rally is a bit of a fake out to what other asset classes be telling you. we will see why and how that is. the u.s. and japan reach a preliminary packed. president trump and prime ministers shinzo abe inked a limited trade deal, with the u.s. withdrawing the threat of auto tariffs for now. for a closer look at trade between the two countries is michael mckee. michael: good morning. it is important to know what this trade deal is and what it isn't. it is a mini deal that gives donald trump a little something
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to talk about in terms of trade. however, what he's really done is create a problem, canceled the problem, and then say he's done something great. here's what we mean. japan is our third-largest trading partner, which means it has the third largest trade deficit with the u.s. you can see it as an important part of the overall trade deficit, about $298 billion the last year. the president and japanese prime minister have done a deal on the margins that will help that a little bit. it will reduce japanese barriers to agricultural sales in particular, wheat being a big portion of that. but what it really does is just get us back to where we would have been if donald trump hadn't taken the u.s. out of the transpacific partnership, that trade deal that the u.s. led that we then canceled. . when. he came to office as you can see -- we then canceled when he came to office. as you can see, trade exports to japan have gone down, and a percentage of total exports of
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wheat has declined. this will give us a chance to get back a little more into that game, but it doesn't solve the problem for a lot of other agricultural products still under rules not governed by the tpp. the other aspect that is interesting about this is it doesn't mention autos at all, even though the president has a lot. froman see auto exports the u.s. to japan are a very important part of our overall trade in motor vehicles and the overall trade deficit. the problem here is that the president doesn't seem to care about the deal he made yesterday. he's more focused on this. last month, he said that the japanese send us thousands and thousands, millions of cars. we send them wheat. that's not a good deal. he didn't address that now. he could still put tariffs on, though he's hinting he won't. that is something we are going to have to keep in mind even though this deal still has to be ratified. alix: great stuff.
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appreciate that, bloomberg's michael mckee. steve chiavarone of federated still with me. this is going to be good for the farmers in particular. on the other hand, we just papering over stuff. how do you look at it? steve: i don't think the market was staying awake at night over the japanese part of trade. win in it is a symbolic a day that probably wasn't hurtful to the president. given some of the pressure that's been on the agricultural part of the economy, this is a net benefit. maybe get you back to where the tpp would have been anyway, but we weren't in the tpp for the last few years. the auto, that's a little more complicated. u.s. automakers are making less and less cars and making more pickup trucks. there is imbalance about that product and the demand in japan. we need to think about trade overall, obviously china is the big one here.
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i know that there's hopes for a transactional deal. maybe there is something along these very small lines. our view has always been that we are probably a ways away from any meaningful resolution there. alix: what many can agree on is that trade issues are bad for the global economy. business and world leaders weighed in on global growth at the bloomberg global business forum. signs are flashing, and we must be ready to be tested. >> we are seeing a slowdown in many parts of the world. >> is the slow a matter of time? will it be temporary, or are there more structural adjustments to be made in the next years? probably a bit of both. >> global growth is a concern, and should be a concern because it is probably the largest piece -- the longest peacetime cycle ever. >> one should be paired. >> it is not in the baseline to
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have a recession. that said, it's mediocre growth. but, but. had a great report that showed the temperament of loosening -- barclays had a great report that showed the temperament of loosening versus a tightening. you don't buy that. steve: no, it is just that when mario draghi had that last meeting, he kind of gave it to the germans. please step in and do something. if you are in europe, particularly germany, you've certainly had one quarter of economic contraction. you almost certainly have another one here. if ever there was a time to do this, now is the time to do this in europe. you've got to be really careful with if you are the central bank is encouraging fiscal stimulus, but not giving the impression that monetary
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policymakers are completely out of bullets. you don't what the market to lose confidence. i think that is the pull and push. in the u.s., fiscal stimulus is not anywhere on the radar. alix: which raises the question, we don't sincerely need it in the way germany does. chicago fed president talking about this. "i don't have another rate cut in there." it feels like the central bank hurdle for another cut may be higher than we thought. steve: i struggle to understand the way they are thinking about the risk-reward here. anticipateilling to that fiscal stimulus and tax cuts were going to somehow shoot us up, and therefore they need to get aggressive. this year there are signs of slowing. you've got weaker growth overseas, trade issues, and they to assume those
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things are going to slow growth. who would mind at this point? we've undershot for 10 years. the risks associated with a bit of and overshoot are far less than the risks associated with a deflationary spiral. some of thegiven things going on with global growth and how that is impacted inflation in the u.s. with core pce falling, i think you should be biased towards being a little bit easier. alix: does that mean you've got to buy growth stocks, dividend proxies? find inhe two areas we terms of large-cap are growth, and innovation now it only sosts in the united states, growth is one. with all due respect to mr. evans, i think the fed is going to cut again. and that of our vent, we think of it and proxies -- in that
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environment, we think dividend proxies do well. this idea that we are so light cycle that you can't by small caps, i don't understand that. they don't have a bell or whistle that lets them know when they are in the economic cycle. 50% of their debt is variable-rate. if rates are falling from others and help. alix: why hasn't hit yet? steve: if you are worried about recession, you're not going to by small caps. our base case is that we are not going into recession in the next 12 months. we think that is a really good contrarian call. alix: let's talk about repo. there was a study that they need to see $250 billion of expansion for the balance sheets to think everything -- to fix everything. how do using about this? steve: we are one of the larger money markets on the street. we've got $300 billion plus of money market assets. there's a short-term technical issue with cash payments going out. we all know that.
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but taxes get paid every year. we've been running a deficit forever. that's not new. i think you do get a pass to the fed on this. we had asked ordinary monetary stimulus. we've been trying to work those down and find that equilibrium. we probably went a little too low. that's fine. let's build it back up. alix: what's the application for the dollar, -- what's the implication for the dollar, for example? if we don't have a pickup in growth, is that just a weaker dollar scenario? is that good are bad? time --pens if the next sheet,thin the balance the next time you have a crisis? steve: this idea that there is stress or recession being priced into the bond market in any way, it doesn't make sense with spreads being at all-time or near all-time lows on the market. you wouldn't choose to represent stress in the market only in the treasury, only in the repo market, and not in the
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high-yield companies. that's inconsistent. i think what you have here is a technical issue. i think that resolving it is just an understanding that, as amount the equilibrium of bank reserves, we went to little too far and have got to recalibrate. alix: steve chiavarone a federated, thank you so much for joining me. now let's get an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. ritika gupta is here with first word news. is condemning american sanctions on tanker farms. the u.s. is jeopardizing rules and will take measures to safeguard the rights of its companies. the u.s. imposed sanctions on companies and individuals accused of knowingly transferring oil from iran, a violation of washington's curb on iran. president trump is a new york city for a fourth and final day
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for the united nations general assembly. he has a meeting with the united six mission at the u.n. before heading back to washington. it will be trump's first time back at the white house since house democrats launched a formal impeachment inquiry. former french president jacque chirac has died. served from 1995 to 2007. he let his country into europe's common currency and headed opposition to u.s. invasion of iraq. after leaving office, he was found guilty of misusing funds during his time as the mayor of paris. he received a suspended prison sentence and didn't appeal. jacque chirac was 86 years old. this is bloomberg. i'm ritika gupta.
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ritika: this is "bloomberg daybreak." coming up in the next hour, phil haslett, equity zen founder. this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm ritika gupta with your bloomberg business flash. the ceo of crowd strike is reacting to president trump's cryptic remarks about the company in that call to ukraine's president. president trump has complained in the past that crowd strike did the analysis of democratic servers instead of the fbi. >> we performed for dnc investigation. we work very closely with the fbi, turned over all of the
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data, and we stand by the conclusions we had, and they were backed up by the intelligence community. i think a lot of what we've done has already been said, and after that, i can't necessarily -- i don't understand where we are with things. ritika: crowd strike says it stands by its findings. amazon is defending the privacy futures of its alexa digital assistant and introducing new tools to reinsure -- new tools to ensure users. among the new products unveiled, the echo studio, a high-end devicesto rival sonos and the google home max. in hong kong, antigovernment protests sparked by an unpopular
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extradition bill are in their fourth month, with major new demonstrations expected to mark china's national day on tuesday. i'm ritika gupta. that's your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. we turn now to wall street beat. first up, spying scandal threatenst omma -- credit suisse's top banker. an entire global payoff. a $1 billion profit from a 20% stake in peloton. in goldman cuts vision fund exposure. the new york lender is said to offload some of the stakes in a $3 billion credit line to decrease risk. joining me is bloomberg's sally basak. we talked about the credit suisse banker being followed, but now it could affect other
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people. sonali: what started as an awkward moment now is something where prosecutors are launching criminal proceedings, and the bank is running its own investigation overseen by the chairman of the bank. the ceo and the chairman leave the truth will emerge in the memo. we will see how big a deal if he was involved, how much and come back to him. alix: even ubs is getting talked about in this whole scenario because mr. khan was going to ubs. here's what he had to say. >> we have made our due diligence, believe me, as a bank , in close contact and making sure that there will be no regret for -- no regretful moves. we are not part of this discussion. sonali: remember, credit suisse and ubs have such a strong rivalry. you have asked whether that you have asked the weber -- you have this iser saying
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between credit suisse and mr. khan. he's clearly somebody who may be rising at ubs. he hasn't joined yet, but when he does. so this is now involving the highest levels of both banks. alix: you have to wonder, it can't just be this one bank and this one person. i'm just saying. it just can't be a one-off. sonali: can you imagine being so good of a banker? [laughter] alix: i'm so awesome i had to be followed. let's go to the next story, making a ton of money off of the peloton ipo. global, -- tiger , he lost his head of equity earlier is here, but still had a return on peloton. got very luckyy
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as it priced at the very high-end of the range. the return will be well over $1 billion. but remember, he's also had a couple of tougher times. juul is another investment for tiger global. you have one great story here for tiger, and one trickier one. alix: trickier is such a nice way of phrasing it. [laughter] alix: let's get to tricky, and that is goldman, wework, and softbank. is this a very specific wework thing? sonali: it is kind of normal for a bank to be offloading some of its debt, but i love the zero hedge take on this. you are seeing that they we work is being repriced. what else in the vision fund is being repriced? it's not just the equity embedded in the vision fund that is risky. now you have safer levels of debt that is now being seen as more risky. so goldman has a very strong relationship to softbank, including helping raise money for the second vision fund, but this is definitely something where it is a sign of greater
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risk. alix: the money being raised that workers are being pressured to take. sonali: exactly. alix: at the same time, softbank is looking to invest more money into wework. sonali: maybe more than $1 billion. that is significant. we were joking before, at what point do softbank just by the whole thing? when they putlso, in more money, they have to buy it at a lower valuation also. we are going to see how much softbank re-prices are stake in the next couple of weeks, and what kind of impact that is going to have on the vision fund, but if they do this equity investment, it helps wework get the debt as it is running out of cash. point everybody to the bloomberg terminal story today. they have until maybe spring to make up some of that cash and keep operations running. alix: come up with that nice three billon dollar loan. thank you so much.
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also, check this out. maybe jamie dimon shouldn't quit his day job and go to hollywood. the head of the u.s. bank is said to have pitched disney chief bob iger on a movie centered around a sick woman who enlists an all-female board of directors to pick a husband ash a single-- around woman who enlists an all-female board of directors to pick a husband. it was about a woman who couldn't pick men very well, so she would have a board of directors of women testing men for her and picking her husband. >> there might be some other movies -- [laughter] there might be some other movie indicative's in the room that might be able to consider that. >> i said that midler should be part of the cast. alix: just, no. not ok. bad movie pitch. iger jokingly called the pitch "gutsy" and gave it a c.
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coming up, soybeans gaining the upper hand. that's next in today's traders take. if you are heading out and jumping into your car, tune into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and the bloomberg business app. . this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: time now for our traders take. joining me is vincent cignarella. why are you looking at soybeans? soybeans gives us a take on the temperature of the trade deal. you can see basically how they soared, and then right after may and early june when the news basically came out that the soybeansl was falling, tanked, and so did the risk appetite of the market. they are starting to pick up as the president was saying yesterday we are may be closer to a deal than people think, or closer than we expect come as of the market temperature picked up a little bit. the situation is this is the low
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hanging fruit, the ag product we are to fully going to get. if they don't really spike, if they don't really get back to those early june levels, i don't think you can really assess the full trade deal as markets wanted to happen. alix: complicated because the dollar continues to be strong, which leads me to the other conversation of fed speak today. vincent: this is the real take for today, and this is what fast money is going to be looking at. clarita is really focus on.u should if you want to look at a fast trade today, you would expect he would talk the same talk. if he doesn't, if he comes out more in the one and done type of feel that we want to sit back and watch, i think that is bad news.
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higher yields, higher dollar, not very good for the stock market. alix: repo? anything with the markets going to see her about what he says -- going to care about what he says about repo? vincent: i think the market has moved on. i think we will hear about some standing agreement. it is just how we do it. alix: bloomberg's vincent cignarella. listen to him all day on bloomberg's macro squawk. coming up, sameer samana, wells fargo global market strategist, will be with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ - i think the best companies succeed as a team,
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a data plan for everyone. everyone? everyone. let's send to everyone! [ camera clicking ] wifi up there? -ahhh. sure, why not? how'd he get out?! a camera might figure it out. that was easy! glad i could help. at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. ♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday,
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september 26. here's everything you need to know at this hour. in hong kong, chief executive carrie lam is holding her first public dialogue in response to the ongoing protests. you're seeing a live shot there. lam is hoping to cool down months of tensions at today's town hall come about riot police are on hand just in case. more than 20,000 applied for just 150 spots in today's event. japanese automakers asking the government to keep up its support for the industry, even as prime minister shinzo abe and president trump signed an agreement that removes the threat of auto tariffs on japan. they spoke to reporters in new york after his meeting with president trump. >> the u.s. and japan are not only longtime allies, but also the world's biggest and third-biggest economies. the trade deal between the two countries is quite significant, and it not only contributes to our countries, but to the global economy. trump is still
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here in new york city for a fourth and final day for the united nations general assembly. after that, he will head back to washington, his first time in the white house since house democrats launched a formal impeachment inquiry. today, attention turns to the acting national intelligence boss, who will face questions from house democrats. peloton raises more than $1.2 billion in its ipo. the company known for its exercise bikes listed at the top of its range at a valuation of over $8 billion. shares are expected to start trading on. the nasdaq today. in the markets, taking a look at equities around the highs of the session. equity futures up about 0.2%. the dollar continuing to see strength. there was a bit of a question yesterday on all of the impeachment drama, why the dollar was stronger, continuing to hold onto those levels. still seeing money come into the
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bond market, but not as much before. yields in europe pretty much go nowhere. how much of it is defense? how much of it is wait and see? joined -- we are looking at impeachment drama playing out on capitol hill as president trump faces off with democrats, who say their case is getting stronger. markets not convinced it means all that much. >> you can't trade this stuff right now. it's impossible. there's so many different scenarios. does this support biden? does it hurt biden? does it support warren? you almost have to ignore it. gina: i don't want to minimize the potential impact, but what else is new? democrats and republicans hate each other. steve: for now it is noise. impeachment has to be unimpeachable. there has to be such clear and incontrovertible proof of wrongdoing that reasonable people on both sides want to remove him from office for this to be a risk in the short run. >> if trump didn't take
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advantage of this and almost delayed any resolution around trade wars, let's not forget that e-cig never significant lever he can pull up and down when it comes to the electoral vote. alix: 20 me from st. louis is sameer samana -- joining me from st. louis is sameer samana, wells fargo investment institute. how do you look at this? sameer: the economy is still sluggish, pmi's still show some softening in the u.s. economy, consumer confidence also taking a little at of a hit, small business confidence taking a little bit of a hit. what we see is the s&p is close to all-time highs, so we prefer to be cautious here. if everything works out in a lot of these areas, there's not a lot of upside. if some of these issues go i ride on you as an investor, there could be quite a bit of on you as ano awry investor, there could be quite a bit of downside.
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high yield is unfavorably rated for us. alix: you are already transitioning into that before any of the impeachment stuff came out. view?ould change that what would be a catalyst for you to want to take on more risk? sameer: for us, it would have to go back to fundamentals. it's got to be something that gets the s&p going up for the right reasons. a lot of that is earnings. need the trade issue resolved. we need some political certainty, and that might not appear until next year once we find out who the democratic candidate is. we need to global economy to start to rebound. china is continuing to slow. there's a lot of things that need to fall into the right places for earnings to come back and for the s&p to meaningfully push higher. from that standpoint, we continue to see it is steady as she goes, but we will take a little risk off the table. who writes forn, bloomberg opinion, had an interesting take.
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" if impeachment proceedings lead to a halt in trump's dispute with china while global trade and manufacturing recover, we may end up adding the catalyst needed for economic growth and a rally in the markets." the idea being if you are a republican senator in a state that has a lot of farm stuff, you may be use impeachment as a lever to try and get a china-u.s. trade deal through. therefore, that means higher risk. how do you think about that? sameer: it's one piece of it. on the other side, what if it makes usmca less likely to pass? what if it makes infrastructure pass?ikely to even if there is a china trade deal, what if china just takes the purchases they have been doing from europe towards the u.s. to then drive europe further into recession? do we find out that a trade resolution wasn't all that it's cracked up to be, and basically just restores what was in place in january 2018? alix: how much would you be in dollar, say, the u.s.
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where the risk-ward won't be as good -- the risk-reward won't be as good, but it will be safety? sameer: our highest rated right now are cash and fixed income even though the fed is cutting rates. we feel like now is a really good time to retain that optionality even if cash is being reduced from the fed in terms of interest rates. we think optionality will far outweigh the loss of returns because again, we don't see compelling opportunities in stocks. we don't see compelling opportunities in bonds. we just want to have that flex ability on our side. alix: where does that wind up leaving you in the growth versus value? in some ways, that argues maybe you do want to go into value. how do you see that? sameer: we would probably be a little bit neutral. we like technology. a lot of secular trends benefit technology. the consumer, although they are starting to show some signs of worry, are hanging in there.
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the yield curves just have not helped at all. neither have the absolute level of yields. that is more of a contrarian play, more of a value play. that's where we also don't have to make a big bet on growth versus value because we've clearly seen a trade that is long and the tooth, and you can verticals.r alix: if you hedge geopolitical risk before brexit or the french presidential election or the election of president trump, you didn't really get rewarded. here's how goldman sachs is looking at political risk. >> based on the flows with our client base, we see more money headed into the united states, probably a bit of a. safety mechanism the united states -- a bit of a safety mechanism. the united states is still a vibrant economy. sameer: we would agree with
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that. unfortunately, whether it is trade or some of the economic slowdown, it is much more concentrated inside the u.s. than in developed markets. the dollar is doing well. i'm so glad you mentioned that. 9 and right around $9 change. i think that's a big thing still playing out, and again, it comes back to things like, we like cash, and give us >> ability just in case there is a stumble or two, just like last year. alix: sameer samana will be sticking with me. coming up, it is the race of two ipos. it is the next one billion-dollar unicorn to go public. we will talk with phil haslett about peloton ipo, which will come out later today on the nasdaq. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: peloton reese's onto the nasdaq, pricing shares at the upper end of its range -- peloton races onto the nasdaq, pricing shares at the upper end of its range. phil haslett, equity zen founder and chief revenue officer, is here. fargo samana of wells also with us. what do you make? pricing at the top end of its range. phil: i think it is a good sign for the ipo market generally, and i think peloton is happy they were able to share their story about how their 20% services and subscription revenue and 80% selling really extensive bikes. alix: the issue is the profitability thing.
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they obviously make money, but it is getting to profitability that is the issue. you don't need a prophet to ipo. is that a good thing -- a profit to ipo. is that a good thing? phil: through the prescription revenue -- through the subscription revenue, they do see a way to get to that point and build themselves out more of a platform. we like to think that peloton is a little like apple, where they have 80% of the revenue from hardware, and they are building a falling around their subs and aroundvenue come up -- their subscription revenue, which they are hoping to build on. alix: how do you look at something like a subscription business? you are not going to buy a bike that is $2000 every six months. it is going to be easier to hit saturation. how do you look at that in terms of the path to profitability? its: peloton talks about
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homes that are $50,000 a year. however, of those half million subscribers, a good cohort of them actually just pay the's inscription for the videos -- pay the subscription for the videos and not the actual bike. we were talking about how it is kind of a cold. there's only -- kind of a cult. for an only 29 traders eighth company. alix: i went to a party and was in a peloton conversation for an hour. does this tell us about the ipo market? you can take a look at what we are seeing here. basically, ipos are designed to perform. what is your take? phil: i think the ones that have been successful have either shown a path towards profitability in the near future or have been able to be profitable when they went public. i think peloton did a really smart thing by doing technology crossover ventures. one investor pumped in about $1
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billion at the ipo price. i think that will build up a lot of investor sentiment at this price. now that i know i rescind investor put $100 million in, i can fuel a little better about it -- now that i know another investor put 100 million dollars in, i can feel a little bit better about it. wework was kind of the straw that broke the unicorn's back. it had $2 million in losses, all sorts of coper it governance issues. all of the others are taking that in stride and wondering what their message will be to investors, particularly public ones. alix: sameer, i wanted to get your take on the peloton world. i know you are running more defensive, so it feels like these companies do not necessarily have that profitability, do you like them? do you not? sameer: the companies that have done well are either already
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profitable or closer to profitability. if all these companies remain private for longer and they are ipoing later and later, as an investor is it is easy to expect they have gone through a lot of the maturation that happens with building up with a business, so by the time you are ipo ing, all you need is more capital to maybe turn the corner. if you are still not profitable after all those rounds of funding, i think it is easier to question whether the real proof of concept exist. probably,ese ipos are at least at this point in the cycle, probably too rich. alix: let's look deeper into wework. how do you understand what happened? phil: i still talk about it with my brother. i said, everything that could go wrong happened, and it happened publicly. what kind of surprises me is there was a confidential filing about the ipo, and i feel like
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some of the board and the other groups should have read through this and said, this is not going to look good. you are leasing back your buildings to the company, selling your trademark back. gotten $700 million of liquidity. this is not going to paint a rosy picture. back,ework takes a step more traditional things happening to him please when they take options back to the company. thosely shut down some of cities that haven't been as profitable. writer's bloomberg latest point, "softbank's investment to months ago clearly assumed we were at a total pass to world domination and that neumann was the person to get there. before even launching a roadshow, they formally rejected n's visions and called it
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off." that is so unusual. we, the big investors who liked it when it was $47 billion, we know we have the right idea. sameer: softbank does nothing --phil: softbank does nothing normally, for starters. the thing that might hurt the vision fund is when you have that kind of negative publicity, you're supposed to be supporting through hell or high water, that might make it hard to attract investment opportunities for the next fund. if i know the person who wants to give me a couple hundred million dollars might badmouth me publicly after just a few weeks of backlash, that might make it really hard. i'm a little bit concerned about the softbank side of things, how they might not be as supportive as they what of been a year ago. neumann.didn't save what does that do to the next
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entrepreneur who has a great vision, but is not a great business manager? phil: i think it is probably what happened with uber. there will be the installation of a seasoned executive to take a look under the hood, really evaluate which eat tim did -- really evaluate what each team did. what does your team look like in a perfect scenario, and what does it look like now? the difference is probably a couple hundred people, which adds up across the world. we are going to take every look across the globe about what their workforce looks like and reevaluate things. alix: sameer, how did you see the whole wework corporate governance? how does that make you feel good or bad about companies? sameer: given how much momentum there is around the esg theme, when we look at managers, i know it is a big deal for us. when we look back, i think wework will probably be an example of, and we have seen this on tech ipos before, the
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governments with each round seems to be getting weaker and weaker in terms of how far can the sounders or cofounders push the envelope. it could maybe be about as poor as it gets. with that broader trend i think more and more investors will demand greater accountability. i wonder if, going forward, founders and cofounders are going to want to stay private, or if they are going to come public and really think about whether they want that scrutiny, whether they want the right governance. alix: brown to get out, i want to hit on saudi aramco, the next huge thing to come up. totally different from peloton and wework. what is the interest there that you see? phil: inequities, we haven't seen too much activity in something like saudi aramco. i think what will be interesting is on the saudi aramco ipo, you probably have a lot of banks that took heat for trying to support. saudi aramco would be the greatest win ever, so i think
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there will be a dedicated investment army from leases like goldman sachs. we need to get back on the tables because we work -- because wework was supposed to be our baby, and it's not happening. alix: really great to see you. goodfor joining -- to have you join me. conch on executive that hong kong executive carrie lam hosting a dialogue -- hong kong executive carrie lam hosting a dialogue. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ "bloomberg daybreak -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is "bloomberg daybreak." the fallout from the vaping crisis in the u.s. is spreading to other countries. u.k. tobacco company imperial brands says it now expects revenue growth of 2% for the year ending september 30, down from previous estimates of 4%. the company blames a slowdown in
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sales of vaping products in the united states. michael bloomberg, founder, xiaomi -- founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, has given money in support of a ban on flavored e-cigarettes and tobacco. british airways owner iag is warning that pilot strikes and lower ticket prices will hurt its annual profit. the company says profits will be $235 million lower than in 2018. it also cut its guidance to full-year growth. british airways was rocked this summer by its first pilot strikes since 1979. the warning follows this week's collapse of tour operator and airliner thomas cook. a banker for bnp paribas has left the bank after posting in support of hong kong antigovernment protests,
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sparking anger in beijing. major demonstrations are expected to mark china's national day on tuesday. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thank you so much. chief executive carrie lam is holding her first public dialogue in response to protests. joining us is "numbered markets: asia" anchor -- is "bloomberg markets: asia" anchor yvonne man. what is going on there? yvonne: this crowd has only grown larger since this public dialogue kicked off inside the stadium. they are chanting the same thing, "not one less," referring to the five key demands protesters are fighting for. the city trying to calm the nerves and tensions ahead of october 1 come of the 70th anniversary of the people's republic of china. inside a little more intimate, but also heated discussions between the crowd of 150 people chosen out of 20,000 from the
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public to join in this dialogue with the government, alongside carrie lam in the middle. the mix has been interesting. antigovernment, as well as pro-government people in the crowd, asking pointed questions, most of which have been centered around why there isn't an independent inquiry on police behavior. also some concerns about hong kong's reputation as an international finance hub, and if the government has done enough to push for universal suffrage here. we saw a very apologetic carrie lam saying she has had a disconnect with the city, she is learning. she was shaken at times here as people were speaking to her directly. the setup has been interesting. it is like bingo, where they are picking numbers out of a box to ask questions, and then they are answering them in bulk. alix: quickly, what happens after tonight?
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lot could happen here. at this point, what we are , theg is that they want government, a dialogue. a dialogue is still the way out of this to bring some type of reconciliation, so this is the first step the government is doing to try to ease the tensions, but isaac and see with the crowd behind me, what they are trying to do now is disrupt what they call fake dialogue. a lot of other questions. people are going to show up october 1. point, permits are not approved from the government yet. alix: tune in tomorrow. bloomberg goes inside the protests in hong kong. u.s. data up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. i am alix steel. just a few minutes away from gdp for the third quarter.
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we are still looking at a nice bid in the bond market. the dollar giving up some of its gains from earlier. still looking at that dollar index around the highs of the last few weeks. euro-dollar pre-much flat on the day. oil prices softer. jp morgan does not understand why. they say there is a much premium then should be better. data dropping. the third year for second-quarter gdp and line, 2%. personal consumption a little bit lighter, 4.6%. core pce and line 2.4%. 2.4%.line at you also had july revised lower as well. we are also waiting for inventories but that has not hit yet. joining me is michael gapen, markley's chief u.s. economist. -- barclays chief u.s.
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economist. had julyou make -- you revised down more? michael: we think there'll will be a gradually revised trade deficit over time. we are not looking for tariffs to change that. looking underneath, we see what is happening with trade volumes. we have done a lot on the tariff flaunt already. the adjustment in trade vote -- on the tariff front already. my take is we need to understand to what extent import and export volumes are slowing. that fits with the narrative that trade policy on certain the means the average multinational is not spending, is less likely to hire. the narrative uncertainty means less business spending. alix: nonresidential fixed investment or spending on equipment or structures fell 1% in the second quarter after rising 4.4%. michael: the incoming data
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points to a stronger contraction in structure spending in the third quarter. we think that is likely to persist. alix: retail inventories flat and wholesale inventories up .4%. i thought we would have a huge inventory built in preparation of its right or. is that narrative out in preparation of a trade war? is that narrative over. stilll: there is narrative around the tug-of-war of can consumption stay strong enough to push inventory low enough to spur production, or is there a general malaise in the business sector that softens consumption? i do not think this inventory data affects that. alix: barclays just put out a bunch of reports, one is a broader call ongoing defensive. walk me through the call for you guys. it is a defensive call in terms of overall growth outlook, but how you are playing it is a little bit different. michael: this is the release of
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our global outlook which is the combined view of our research team. it is the consensus view. after being overweight equities earlier and achieving our year end price target, we are looking ahead where our baseline macro outlook is for further slowing. we do not see a lot of catalyst for upside growth. we see more risk skewed to the downside. we think growth will slow in the u.s. we think china is more likely to grow at 5% to 5.5%. we are pushing out our brexit call into january. we think that will continue to weigh on activity both in the u.k. and europe. obviously the data in germany is soft. we do not see a lot of room for central bank policy to alter that. if we look back in time, it is china stimulus that pulled us out of the 2015 slowdown and lay the catalyst for a three year plus boom and equities.
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we see the government tolerating growth. the outlook is mediocre growth, low inflation, ultralow policy risk. we do not see a growth catalyst. in that environment, we say we would prefer to be defensive, rotate out of overweight into equities, position more in u.s. corporate debt, even emerging-market, on the fixed income side. it is not a view that says you need to run to negative yielding global sovereign. we are seeing continued soft growth and further deceleration. in that environment, we would have a different view. alix: it seems like you agree on the view but not the asset allocation. >> small changes around the edges. we prefer the optionality of cash and short-term fixed income. so of the areas michael mentioned could easily be seen as alternative. he mentioned the business
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community being as frozen as they are. even if there is a trade deal, if elizabeth warren ends up being the nominee, the markets will struggle with what does the present -- a second term for president trump look like? forhat does a first-term president elizabeth warren look like? how does the business community start to unpack all of these different things. it will be difficult. alix: the chicago fed president talked yesterday and surprisingly he started talking about less rate cuts. he said i was able to generate overshooting our inflation objective with simply the cuts we agreed to so i did not have another rate cut in their. what you expect from the fed? you look at uncertainties that will heat up and has nothing to do with trade. sameer: we still think they will do one. there is a lot of time between
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now and december. we will get payrolls data and find out what happens with trade in october. we think that is penciled in for us. it could change if there is a trade deal and good economic data, especially if inflation continues to tick higher. michael: same view. we have two, but generally the same view. we think the fit takes october off and looks around. -- we think the fed takes october off and looks around. one to two martin the next quarter seems reasonable -- one to two more in the next quarter seems reasonable. alix: within your piece, this was a chart that stood out to me. it is g7 and fiscal stances. it does not look like it will ease. the bigger the blue bar, the bigger the propensity to ease on a physical level. -- on a fiscal level. alix: even in the u.s. -- sameer: even in the u.s. --
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michael: even in the u.s., the budget caps represent stimulus. the bar does not give you the relative magnitude of the stimulus, and it does give you an idea of directionally where you might get. this is the view that it helps to cushion economies, it helps to stabilize activity but it does not keep a reap -- it does not key a rebound or re-acceleration. we would need it in certain areas like europe more than we would need it in the u.s. there is room for that to happen , discussions are still ongoing, but that would be my basic point. even in the u.s., the budget caps represent an improvement, something that should help stabilize the economy next year, but it is a much smaller shock absorber than the stimulus we enacted previously. basis, theshort-term next six hours, rich clarida
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will be talking. what are you paying attention to? there will be a lot of fed to speak. -- there will be a lot of fed speak. sameer: he has been the -- michael: he has been the globalist in the room. the u.s. is not entirely immune to global slowdown. i would expect notes of caution to continue to permeate his talk. i doubt he would be as firm on saying i think we are done. his outlook likely includes one more cut this year and it will be couched in a backdrop where global growth continues to decelerate and that is weighing on business sentiment and spending in the u.s.. alix: thank you so much for joining me on set. michael gapen of barclays and sa meer of wells fargo, thank you. nowriddick a group to -- is here with first
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word news. >> joseph maguire is said to speak for the first time about the secret whistleblower complaint against president trump. democrats who have read the document to it is "deeply disturbing." explainped maguire will why he withheld the document for a week. prince mohammed bin salman says the crown prince made the comments in december 2018, two months after the murder in the kingdom's consulate in istanbul. the prince blamed unnamed officials for acting without his knowledge. china is condemning american sanctions on its tankers. beijing said the u.s. is jeopardizing international rules and that china will continue to take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of its companies. the united states imposed
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sanctions on chinese companies and individuals accused of knowingly transferring oil from iran. a violation of washington's curve on iran. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you so much. we will be discussing the tanker story much more on bloomberg "commodities edge." the whistleblower complaint is now released by the house committee. that just broke. the whistleblower complaint released by the house committee. we are waiting at 9:00 the acting director of national intelligence will publicly testify before the house intelligence committee about that complaint. looking for details on that. stay tuned with us for that at 9:00 a.m. the whistleblower complaint has been released by the house committee. they bring complaints down --
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drag down shares. more on that on today's bottom line. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg daybreak. coming up later today on balance of power, democratic presidential candidate john delaney. this is "bloomberg daybreak." pelaton has raised more than $1.2 million in its ipo. the company, known for its
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stationary bikes, priced stared -- priced shares at $28 each. at $1.8any is valued billion. shares are expected to begin trading on the nasdaq today. are expected to begin trading on the nasdaq today. the ceo of crowd strike is reacting to president trump's cryptic remarks about the company. president trump has complaint and the past that crowd strike did the analysis of the democratic national committee when it was hacked in 20 rather than the fbi. 2016 -- in 2016 we perform the investigation and work closely with the fbi. we stand by the conclusions we had and they were backed up by the intelligence committee. a lot of what we have done has already been said. i cannot necessarily -- i do not understand where we are with things. >> crowd strike says it stands
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by its findings and conclusions. mattel has unveiled a line of gender-neutral dolls. it says it is up to kids to decide whether their doll is a boy or a girl. mattel is in the midst of a years long turnaround and coming off its best quarter in some time with sales topping expectations. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: more details. the whistleblower complaint has been released by the house. watchdog group says the report appears credible. first of all, i should point out the whistleblower was not in any of the readings. it is over the past four months, more than half a dozen u.s. officials have informed the whistleblower of various facts related to the event, and that it winds up detailing different events. one thing i wanted to point out
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is that after the phone call with the president of ukraine, the whistleblower said he learned from multiple u.s. officials that senior white house officials had intervened to lock all records of the phone call, especially the official word for word transcript of the call that was produced. obviously, you wind up having president trump tweeting immediately, he says the democrats are trying to destroy the republican party and all it stands for. stick together, let them play their game. our country is at stake. joining us is kevin cirilli in d.c. i have scanned it. what are some of your takeaways from what we know so far? kevin: this is a nine page whistleblower document. the whistleblower says they were not present for any of the encounters over a 4.5 month period. i want to read one portion that
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illustrates the argument the whistleblower is making, which is essentially that rudy and was aas traveling inison of sorts with ukraine terms of dealing with ukrainian officials, even as other folks within the administration and the ukrainian embassy might've had a different agenda. here is the portion according to this whistleblower complaint. multiple u.s. officials told me the ukrainian leadership was led to believe a meeting or phone call between the president and ukrainian president would depend on whether the ukrainian president showed willingness to "play ball" on the issues publicly aired between a ukrainian official and mr. giuliani. this was the general understanding of the state of affairs conveyed to me by u.s. officials from late may into early july. the argument that this whistleblower is making is that
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rudy giuliani served as a liaison between president trump and ukrainian officials with regards to using political dirt on hunter biden as a mechanism of negotiating tactic for u.s. and ukrainian policy. we are waiting for the acting director of national intelligence, joseph maguire, to begin his testimony before the house intelligence committee chaired by democrat, democrat adam schiff. he will no doubt face questions about this whistleblower complaint. from there, the acting director of national intelligence then goes to the senate for a closed hearing, where he is met by the republican-led senate intelligence committee. privately all morning there have been several republican staffers who have begun to raise concerns about this. the issue becomes whether or not there concerns are enough to get behind impeachment. we are not there yet.
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i want to be very clear. there does not appear to be any significant republican deserting the president politically. the president having tweeted out in response to this whistleblower filing being made public that this is something he feels is not credible. republicans no doubt using similar response strategy that we saw in response to the robert mueller report. they feel emboldened. this is a president who is digging in. this is a president who is keeping republicans in line with him. we are again just moments away from that testimony of the acting director of national intelligence, joseph maguire. he will publicly testify and the house of representatives. , ix: to pivot off of that mentioned before the whistleblower did say the white house sought to lockdown all call records, implying they knew the severity of what had happened on the call and were
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trying to lock that down. one of the issues is it appears he was not being in any of those meetings directly. what kind of cover have you heard that may or may not give congressional republicans to stand by the president? kevin: massive coverage. you heard this from one of the founders of the house freedom caucus, saying this is an individual was not present at any of the meetings. when you to note that are dealing with -- there is protocol when a president is talking to a foreign counterpart. there is protocol in terms of who is listening to the call, in terms of records being cap, and in terms of confidence being capped between these into -- being kept between these individuals. republicans have argued the documents were following protocol in the sense you do not want anything that would jeopardize national security. beyond that, the republicans
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have been calling for investigations into joe biden, into hunter biden, and also into democrats traveling into the ukraine. they have raised concern about democratic senators who have traveled to the ukraine and their argument is we are trying to make a deal with ukraine. right now, this is an incredibly intense political realm type of story. it is all chiefly on party lines. we are about to hear from the director of national intelligence. alix: you are looking at the market reaction, it is minimal. the s&p did not move off its highs. holding. this says to me this is not necessarily bad enough. we heard from nancy pelosi she is looking into a more refined investigation on impeachment rather than piling and a lot of other stuff. what might moderate democrats be thinking about this?
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kevin: we are hearing from moderate democrats all this week who say impeachment is something they were willing to get behind. that poses significant risk for the majority in the house of representatives, as republicans would hope that should these moderate democrats get behind impeachment, they would be able to win back. all politics is local, so for many of these moderate democrats who wanted republican seats, republicans will characterize those members as people who were voting on one issue, which is impeachment. as this plays out, as this place forward, we should note what is happening at the presidential level. joe biden's campaign has been adamant that the ukraine issue is something they would be able to move beyond and move past. polling suggests elizabeth biden has surpassed joe in early caucus and primary
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states, including iowa as well as new hampshire. accordingrren, also, to a paul released earlier this week, is leading amongst all democratic and likely democratic voters. this is still a political story. the markets have interpreted it as such and it has not moved as significantly into the constitutional realm, as illustrated by the fact that most republicans -- all republicans are still in lockstep with the white house. alix: great stuff. thanks a lot. is bloombergsset investigative legal reporter. i want to round out what we know so far. the whistleblower complaint has been released to the public. the whistleblower was not in any of these meetings. they are based on several accounts from other officials. a standout is after the ukrainian call with the president and ukraine, the whistleblower said the white house sought to lockdown all records, which would imply there
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is something negative. what is your take. what is the legal case? kevin: i think there's a strong legal case. clearly there was evidence, even in the excerpts released yesterday to cry for we need to see it all. now we are finding out about the whistleblower, and the fact that the whistleblower was not present does not mean it should be disregarded. it does give the democrats ammunition to investigate further and get as much information as possible. alix: does it give the republicans ammunition to say this is bogus? no.: the impact of yesterday across the no. the impact of yesterday across the spectrum, even on the side of some republicans, is that this was damaging enough. except on this supreme probe president side, i do not think there will be a disregard that this is worthless. alix: david westin is also here.
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he called this in a meeting two days ago. what are your sources telling you about the significance of this particular report? david: the thing that struck me when the transcript came out was it was pretty clear. often transcripts are garbled. it was clear president trump said i have this thing i want you to do for me, which is surprising. he specifically called it a favor, which was striking. you are seeing a narrower investigation, but it will go faster. it specifically talks about the july finish -- 25th -- the july 25 conversation with ukraine. there are two issues. did the president do something inappropriate in raising the son of a political rival with a foreign leader, and after that happened, did he do something inappropriate and trying to keep congress from knowing about it,
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particularly in the intelligence committees of the house and senate. even if the underlying thing was not illegal, it is clear the intelligence whistleblower act required the director of national intelligence to turn this over to the intelligence committees within seven days. alix: stay tuned to "balance of power" with david westin. cirilli, david, kevin and craig farrell. we will greet bringing you -- we will be bringing you part of the intelligence hearings just a few moments. the whistleblower complaint finally unveiled. one of the highlights saying the white house tried to lockdown call records. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪
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jonathan: coming up, equities treading water with wall street finding the impeachment threat impossible to change -- detroit. the nations by -- impossible to trade. chief talks to congress. with 30 minutes in the opening valve -- with 30 minutes until the opening bell, future still positive, up four on the s&p 500. the treasury market driving everything. yields lower four basis points to 1.69 on the u.s. 10 year. at below 1.10 the main event in the world of politics is the national national intelligence director joseph maguire prepared to give his testimony to congress. we will be bringing you the opening statement and the q&a once that begins in any moment. joining us from capitol hill, kevin ci


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