tv Fast Money CNBC February 23, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
after hours earnings tonight. aig trading higher. and others that have been on the move here. >> that are does it for the closing bell. thank you very much for watching us this thursday. >> gang of fast money is starting now. see you again tomorrow. i'm melissa lee. a sales force trades in the after hours action. betting on a big turn around at hewlett packard. drawing the parallel with ibm and should they buy the long-term strategy and we continue our search for the next big thing. the 3d systems and stock surging today. this is fast money. let's get straight to the biggest mover in the day. we are talking about oil above $108 a barrel.
a nine-month high. retailers and the price of gasoline has not been mentioned too much. >> we have only seen the price of gasoline pop up since january 1st. we have seen about a 50 cent increase and about 20 to 30 cents of that came from february. it hasn't filtered in yet what they are seeing in that area. that's a profit margin from food inflation. this could be a thing that hits the companies and take a month or two to get into that. >> when you look at the retailers that you hold, retailers in general, at what point do you get concerned the longer it stays close to $4 a gallon and when do you think it will hit the bottom line? >> right about now. i think and perhaps last time oil was at this level, it was a concern for a wal-mart or a target even though it has a higher end customer. not a high end customer. that doesn't matter right now. for wal-mart it is disconcerting. >> yeah.
here's stats. >> i love stats. that's what we are all about. >> like a sports type of show. statistics are important. >> a little too touchy feeley. people are paying more. >> what do you mean? >> a $10 rise in crude is a half percent drop in gdp. a 10 cent rise in gas is a drop in personal success. this is according to the shore report. this is why we care. which stocks do you care most about? >> most concerned about, i think obviously some of the retailers are taking it on. it looks like a costco whose numbers continue to get better. look at the january comps much better than expected. the problem with costco is 20 times forward earnings is ahead of itself on valuation. they don't go to the drillers and look at a neighbor that got taken out to the wood shed earlier this year. over the last week or so, it seem to be finding life again. we're at $22 now that seems to
be breaking out. costco scares me, but the valuation is a concern. i would rather buy that on a pull back. they seem to be breaking out and given the scenarios you talked about, i like nbr the best. >> the format that makes the most sense is hyper markets. people can get it done and it's about the mass savings. when you look at the luxury retail, that will be the real test for me. this trade that worked for the last year and a half, you don't have the cheap valuation and i think you have to be careful about getting too short, the names like tiffany and coach that are performing in the face of difficult consumer environment. i would not be running for the next move up. when i look at the move over the last couple of days, what's interesting is we have seen this and i know this is about supply and disruption, but it came at the same time we have seen other commodities running. that's the bigger part of the cost input that we see in a lot of the consumer goods.
i don't think it's time to get panic for the consumer. first of all, this is a supply disruption issue and not a demand issue. this is something that while we know that the tensions are getting higher and higher and i don't think they are going to necessarily dissipate, i don't think that you have to bake this in. >> confluence of higher gas prices that, could be the convenience stores at the gas stations. >> they last week said the sales were down 1.7% and food sales were up 6%. i would look for that trend to reverse as people spend more on gas and buy less slim jims at casey's general store. >> i don't think you could have enough slim jims. >> there is a new slim jim coming out to market from conag ra. >> when you go to a ranger game, what do you like to do?
>> the beer mug and you swap out the pretzel for a slim jim. we digress. >> no, you digress. >> who stands to benefit from oil at $108 a barrel. according to sources, the birthday boy today. happy birthday. >> thanks very much. i should mention it's actually my son's birthday as well. a much bigger deal. >> wow. double birthday. happy birthday to you and your son. we are looking at $108 and brent also hit a-month high at a record high and that's what we look at when we look at gasoline prices. can you walk us through? we know about the tensions in the mideast, but how much of that rise do you think has to do with refining capacity here in the united states in terms of the high price of gas and being
shut in as well as we being a net exporter of gasoline? >> i think we look at brent as being the price to worry about. that concerns us. wti is a much smaller part of the oil market. we are concerned definitely about brent and it seems as you mentioned the supply threats are not just iran, but we had issues in syria and somalia. we had issues in yemen and they are hurting non-opec supply and causing the market to destroy world oil demand and that's why we got so high. it's a concern for us. the original argument was that the first demand to be destroy side u.s. gasoline construction. you get to about $4 a gallon to do that. we have seen that and demand is falling happenidly. the oil market will go after emerging gdp growth and you highlighted the impact that we got here. that's how high we are and how
worried we are. in terms of the reifying question, we talked about the gas line in disguise. when that rises because it's a crude, you can expect gasoline prices to go up too. at the moment i think there is an interesting strength to gasoline given as you said the situation is not seemingly that tight in the u.s. >> you brought up a good point on emerging markets. most people think they have so much oil, this is a boom for them. outside of russia and the mideast, this is a major problem. to the extent that people wanted markets to be the growth end, how sensitive in a place like korea and south korea and turkey, these are major oil importers and do you think they are starting to have an effect on their central policy and monetary policy? >> i think it's going to hurt their growth and we are calculating so it's a noisy number and you are right to highlight that the middle east
and russia will highlight. china and more developing economies have a 1-1 relationship. they need oil to generate the economic growth. the u.s. economy is growing with falling oil demand that told you we are not being driven by oil-intense economic output. with china and other markets, you need that growth. you said about a .25 effect and for every 10% move in oil, about a .35 effect for developing economies and a multiplier between the two. they begin to slow and the other begins to slow. i calculated that we go to about 130 or 140 and you are going to begin to crush those economies enough that demand begins to fall below supply growth. we should be the top four oil. >> we are talking about gdp and
hursting the u.s. consumer. there is demand destruction and how sustainable is any oil spike and how long does it need to stay to have a real lasting effect? >> on our numbers, you have got about a million barrels a day globally in emerging markets. we have about the same of non-opec growth. that never turns up. whenever we forecast it, it never shows up. we wanted to get it below the supply growth and that's where i came up with the 130 to 140. we need to do that on a sustained basis and it couldn't take long. once you got to 130 or 140, you will roll over quickly. history said within a matter of weeks. >> i am not trying to get political, but there is chatter of releasing the observes.
i am not asking if you think it's going to happen, but if you think it's a good idea for them to do it. not what it was put in place for. do you think we are going down the wrong road to release reserves? my thoughts is i wish we had one and we will definitely release it in an election year. if they released it last year before july 4th, if i was the president, i would. >> that's very direct. >> i can be. it has to be said. >> yeah. in terms of beneficiaries, to go through the stocks that you think will benefit, marathon and oxy as well as sm? >> you are running out of steam. >> market and equity is nervous about paying more. we did do a significant note on the problems we face in global
oil demand. we did upgrade oil and we had a top pick of marathon and oxy we always liked. these are along the oil supply. if you worried about the roll over which i am, look at conco phillips. that will be super defensive. restructuring continues. >> paul, thanks for your time and happy birthday to you and your son. >> max. >> happy birthday to max. we mentioned the emerging markets and you are concerned about japan that relies on -- >> more so than ever. they shut down almost all of the nuclear capacity and they are importing oil and natural gas for their energy needs. any spike in oil is going to hurt. you have an economy that is fragile and if you get an inflation boost and yield guess
up 230% debt to gdp and it doesn't take much of spike in yields to hurt that economy. i would be concerned about that. >> value reported yesterday and slightly disappointing and beaten on the news. best play to play. in other words, new pipelines and unconventional drilling and deep water. the best in the world by this weakness. >> just to button up this conversation, what happened the last time oil was this high? this was according to the person who crunched the numbers for us. the last time oil spiked, we saw oil higher by 8% and consumer discretionary higher by 5%. it moved in tandem. something to think about. let's move on to the next trade. no dividend. that was announced at the shareholder meeting. was it a disappointment or is there a chance that one will be issued?
i can imagine you would be disappointed and how much longer did they need to think about that? >> it's so disappointing. i have to imagine this came up when they had $40 million of excess capital and 60 and 80. now they are considering it? it's ridiculous. the issue is not that complicated that they need to consider it for as long as they have been doing. it's ridiculous. do something with the cash or not. you should. you have done a disservice to the shareholders by not doing anything all of this time. whatever. this is ridiculous. were it not apple, they are doing everything else right and they get a huge amount of good will. it's absurd. >> let's bring in another shareholder. connor brown of thorn berg investment where apple is more than 2% of his value fund. great to have you with us.
>> thanks. you as disappointed as karen is? >> we are. what i think is interesting is that apple is so cheap, when you start to think about what they do with returning cash to shareholders, you start to get crazy numbers. we are right. we need to get the cash down and before we get there, we need to pay out the current net income. the numbers work out easy. if they did a 50% pay out and half of net income, that ekwats to about a 5% dividend yield. we don't think given how fast apple is growing they would stay at a 5% dividend yield for long. if they initiated a pay out ratio, that would be 5% on today's price. if that is 3%, you would be looking at $900. >> let me ask you something. apple is so volatile. what difference will it really make? do you have a sense for how much
demand sitting on the sidelines and because they have no policy to address this? >> apple is actually very under owned among value managers and yield managers in the u.s. they are a growing piece particularly yield managers are a growing piece of that asset under management. i think many are waiting on the sidelines for that dividend and that return of cash to shareholders. you will see the positions start to build when we get it. >> i'm sure you are somewhat modelling this, but maybe they are hoarding to make an acquisition. they can probably do something given the cash or relatively inexpensive like a twit they're gets them into the social media world. have you modelled for that and would that be a positive if that happened? >> we figure we can make good money if nothing happens with the cash.
a little bit better than that would be a sort of acquisition that might generate income overtime. the best would be either a dividend or a buy back. they said again today they don't think they need to buy content, for example, to roll out a tv product. they don't have to do that with music for itunes. apple has been discipline and they have been very small. they disciplined products organically and they wouldn'tan 'tis pate anything like . connor brown of thorn derg. that would quash the apple and netflix tie up. >> you would think. there is a lot of money sitting there with something to do. i think apple is vulnerable. you have a lot of disappointed people who bought it for a dividend. i would be selling. >> yeah. a lot of people got into it anticipating there would be a
dividend announcement and they will get out and i have to think about trees don't grow to the sky. >> they haven't paid since 95. >> the talk about paying a dividend. a lot of people got into it for that. >> they want us to go g to a break. >> as we head to a break, they take a look at the oil. the electronic trading at $108.69. taking to the wood shed as sales force takes off. they will trade it after this. stay tuned. forty years ago, he wasn't looking for financial advice. back then he had something more important to do.
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they did beat. >> they did beat. margins were better and that implies a 57% year over year growth. all great things until you come to the valuation that has been the story for a while. at 83 or 84 times forward earnings, do you chase crm? my answer would be no. it will go higher than where it is now. big short interest in the name and they will chase, but at this valuation, this quarter was not good enough for me to justify where the stock is going to trade tomorrow. i'm not saying shorter, but don't chase. >> here brings up valuation and this is exactly what they did because of that valuation. you have to see the growth rates continue. you are starting to have that here, but i would agree that you don't chase this tomorrow. i would trade this. see if the gap holds and you have a point of reference. >> to the options market and a big pop in the after hours session.
>> the options market suggest that is will move sharply. a lot of them are skeptical about the valuation. these got extraordinarily expensive, rising about 35 in the last couple of days on the weeklies, the ones that were trading most before the earnings. what people want to consider is that tomorrow now that the numbers are out, the options will get less expensive. that might be a good way to play it. the valuation doesn't make much sense. we were talking about things going to the sky. that's true here too. >> they will be talking with jim cramer that. should be a good interview. we want to check on shares of deckers and the makers of ugg boots and sharply lower. they beat out earnings and nobody is looking at the fourth quarter results. they are talking about rising costs. this is the second year of rising costs. specifically the problem is in the ugg boots. >> sheep skin costs. who knew? >> i thought sheep skin was
coming down. i know they don't have it in camaro seats. i may not think that. the bar was so high, but these guys are talking about eps guidance down 50% from a year ago. this is a story that continues to grow. aside from the input cost, these guys continue to grow internationally. that's what they get excited about. they doubled steals to about 25% of the business. despite the fact that i don't wear uggs. >> ti va sandals is a different story. >> that's more of a mannedle. >> it's a great company, but maturing so it doesn't get the big growth multibell anymore. >> it's more than a mature company. >> they're said they will have to raise prices on uggs.
>> a couple of things i like to add is i don't know the last time tim was in my camaro. >> i'm sure he was wearing suede. >> in the 70s of course. >> the small food category. >> before your shift started. >> anyway, moving on to the next trade, ibm hitting a high while hp dropped 7% n. an interview, meg whitman talked about her turn around plan and compared it to ibm. >> given the fundamental change that needs to take place, this will take time. if you look at ibm, it took them ten years. we will make progress. you won't have to wait for the progress. we have a lot of work to do. >> so could hp take a lesson or two from ibm. let's welcome the analyst for his help on this. when investors took a look, it took years.
that's not exactly encouraging. can you give us a sense of the business and the environment these days versus years ago. will it be a tougher road and the competition is sharper and the 10 tragz is greater these days. >> we don't think hp emulates ibm to the t, but to focus on software and services and made moves there. they ought uds and autonomy more recently. the margins should expand and trade up. . >> she did a fantastic job of lowering the bar. >> they can't go lower and where do you come out on the name. >> we like the name. it's out a favor. it reminds us of dell a year ago of cisco a year ago when nobody
wanted it. this is exactly the time when you want to buy the stock. we think hp is fixable. the key thing for a turn around is a large installed base and they have that. people forget it wasn't that long ago that hp executed well. >> that's interesting. it almost sounds like meg whitman wants to be mark hurd again. reinvesting and simplifying and he put his stamp on the company. do you find that straped and the next question is do you believe them when you say they have been lack luster. they are holding out for windows 8. is that a fair excuse at this point? >> i think emulating mark hurd, there is nothing wrong with that. mark has proven that has been a great strategy and stream lining and running things more efficiently and running on execution. we think those things can be
replicat replicated. we are not sure if they doll it the same, but if she gets it half right, this is a $35 stock. in terms of the pc business, part of their thing is that people are losing share to apple. that's one of the reasons why we are under performing on dell. they have 70% exposure. for hp, it's about 30% of the company. that is going to continue to face challenges. windows 8 should help out somewhat. that's more than the second half. >> a lot of people have talked about meg whitman cleaning up the company and getting ready for the sale. what are your thoughts on that. maybe ibm? >> this is a rather large company. we are talking about $120 billion in revenue what people are forecasting. that's with a guide down. not sure who the logical buyer
would be. there is speculation around samsung taking pieces of it. we are not sure of that and if it makes sense. it's too big of a company each for an ibm to absorb. >> great to speak with you from stern ag. in terms of the turn around. >> i didn't think it would trade below and talked about it for a long time here. almost printed 200 here today. it's a lot more difficult to be in it than $85 ago. candidly i don't see anything in their way. outside the market collapsing, ibm looks okay. >> in terms of hewlett packard,
apple is eating people's lunches in terms of the consumer business and ibm has a lead with software and services by about 5 years to 7 years. >> two things. obviously the sentiment in the stock was terrible and one of the reasons we made a bearish play. i have to feel like it's getting too cheap. this is simple. 11 times earnings, $2.45 a share. on an annualized basis, the company has been doing that for five-day forecast years and have to see material pull backs and all of their businesses and still be fairly priced. >> we have to take a break. are copper and treasuries raising red flags? more cast money coming up next. [ male announcer ] the draw of the past is a powerful thing.
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we want to take a check on shares of molly corp in the after hours session. they are down by about 1%. it did look like a decent fourth quarter for them and saying there was strong demand in prices because of strong demand for magnets. you have been following the trade for a long time. >> i haven't been in in a long time. when the stocks break, you have to start getting back before you really get back into them. in terms of molly corp, the only issue is how strong is the global economy. we talk about the uses for these rare earths. that's the only thing we would be worried about. i wouldn't get back into it. >> let's move on to the volatility playbook.
it has fallen to a seven-month low. should they think about getting long volatility. the options strategist and refinance investment. good to see you. we have been in the arrangement for a long time and they get a long volatility. >> everyone is getting comfortable with the market and all the bad news that comes out, people say i will ignore that and they concentrate on the good news. regarding the vicks that came down, there is not a lot of fear. what we told our clients is be careful when that happens. everyone is getting comfortable. that's when you have to expect something unusual to happen whether it's a worldwide event, be careful and be cautious. you need to do other things like put in stop losses and follow-up with stop losses and buy puts and you know you will get out a certain price. those are the types are things we are suggesting. >> where could volatility go?
>> we don't know the event, but there might be a start to the problems again and go back to europe and something can happen. everything is calm and people are comfortable with what's happening right now. we don't know when it will happen, but when it does happen, it will reverse and volatility will be larger. right now there individual situations and stocks and situations that you can find a lot of volatility involved with the individual stock. >> you look at it in terms of where it seems way too low. >> i think one of the most important things people have to look at is it's cheap everywhere you look. they focus on the spot that is the commonly quoted number. the futures curve is steep. if you take a look at how much the vicks is out 18 months, it's not any lower than it was just a couple of weeks ago. it's only the front end that
came in and i would ask what he thinks might be driving this and what the implications are. >> what i would say to that is he's right. you have to be specific if you look at technology and priceline is coming out with earnings after the market closes. the stock is about 588. the 500 puts next friday and it's only a week out and trading at two and change and 70 points above at about 650, they are about $6, the options. these expire on friday. there a lot of individual situations that you can take advantage of. >> good to see you. >> thank you. >> next on fast is the next big thing in 3d printers. it could be a game changers. you have the ceo systems next. stay tuned.
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just last month they unveiled the first at home 3d printer and shares of the stock are up 62% year to date. joining us now in a special segment we call next big thing is the president and ceo. al, it's great to see you. >> it's nice to see you too. >> abe. good to see you. let's get to what the technology is. most average people at home are not familiar with the fact that printers can print in's 3d fashion. how does that happen and what are the primary industries that uses technology. >> we basically can take any digital file and print one layer at a time and print in plastics and metal and the only who can go from aviation to production and context it print. we can go into anything from your gadgets to implants to
first dental restorations and aerospace parts and components and we are disruptist and impactful on every part of our lifestyle. from the shoes that you wear to the computer that you use. all of it is being shaped and designed using 3d printers today. >> it sounds cool and pay through the nose for the hewlett packard vials. i have to believe your thing is through the roof expensive for people that owned them to use. my sense is the cost to repair these things and the cartridges and if i were in a shop that owned a dentist, what kind of outlay are you talking about? >> today we have price points and all the way from $1300 all the way to a half million and we fit it into three segments with personal printers and professional printers and
production printers. as of a month ago, we unveiled the first ever at home 3d printer for kids in the ages of 8 to 18. affordability and coloring book simplicity into the whole create and make process so that anybody could unleash the creativity in an affordable way. to your point, if you look at the little nano holder that i have here that was printed on the q printer, the cost to print this at home is under $3. the maintenance is included in the cost. we expect this to be simple, affordable and easy to use and we are trying to remove all of the friction that existed between us and mass adoption. this is what this is all about. it's about unleashing kids and people that are uninhibited to create and make. it's about a personal
manufacturing revolution and about relocalizing manufacturing where it needs to be just in time. it's about giving our kids the competitive skills they need to be competitive in tomorrow's job market. >> that are product you just held up, what is that color that it's printed out of it and do you provide that material? we compare you to a green mountain coffee where i have to get the material from you in. >> absolutely. we have raise arors and blades business model and sell cartridges and this would be a lego-like plastic. we print in lego-like plastics and print in fully dense metals and nylons that make airplane parts. we can do it with flexible nylons and plastics. if you can think it and you can dream it, you can print it and
bring it into life. without any of the traditional craftsmanship and we are developing aps that allow anybody to create and make if you can operate a tablet and the smart phone. you are in. if you have a kinect box, you can print. all of this is the digital canvas and the digital canvas is in everybody's hands today. we want to give them the integration from creating to making and we want to empower garage entrepreneurs and start ups and next generation innovators to create and make and have the same advantage that was reserved for large companies. >> and abe, the cube is going to be out available to the public in the second quarter of this year. is that correct? >> the cube is going to be offered and an available fully commercially in the and the
destination is our i tunes and facebook. it's the meeting place and market place for content creation and sharing. they will be fully live and commercial in the and we are really excited about it. >> got it. hope to talk to you soon. thanks for your time. >> look forward to it. have a great day. >> your mind is churning thinking about all the things you can print and in what material. >> the paper jams. i would go nuts. >> anyway. >> they will be on my driveway throwing out the window. >> is there big money to be made with big options. karen has the trade after this.
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the auction ear and may go forasmuch as $80 million. is there big money in auctions? you have the fine print on the trade? >> i wouldn't be surprised if they went for more than that. that is an interesting thing. when you look at the dynamic, i love this. it is to me a pure way to -- it's the global wealth creation story. as you have more and more wealthy people, you have more and more art collectors. this is long standing. there two big players. sotheby's. it's a competitive environment and it's great to be in a duopoly like this. you have the idea that art is considered a store of value. while people are looking around the world for what can i own whether it's gold or do they not want to own currencies.
art is an accepted store of value. you have the macro dynamic and what survived and thrived the near death experience and you have the ftc settlement where they were fixing prices and levered up to build the flagship building. it wouldn't be the most shocking thing if someone took it over and you don't need that at all. i love this company and that the dynamic is fascinating. >> that are is compelling and the chinese billionaires and 74 live in moscow alone. why is this a duopoly. >> if you auction something, you cannot leave the country. if you auction it, it can't. they have an advantage there. it's a first mover. them or kristi. >> let's hit "options action"s.
let's look at auto zone about a week ahead of earnings. >> where the are opportunities to own and a stock that moves 4% on average on the earnings and advanced auto parts moved 8%. you can own the upside for less than 2%. they were offered at about 680 and both were less by the close. you are spending less than 2% of the stock price to make an upside bet on a stock that could even if you think it goes either way, move more than that quite easily. >> you have catch more at 5:00 and follow us on twitter to get constant updates. next, we will show you the easiest place on the planet to longer money. more fast money straight ahead. [ male announcer ] technology accelerates at a relentless pace.
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companies where you can set up without saying who is behind it. they say this makes it one of the easiest places in the world to launder money. they have a number of states like nevada. a former bartender who does this for a living. he has 2400 companies registered in nevada about 30 miles outside reno. he will front your company too. no questions asked. >> they don't do investigative work on the people. if you want to save money. >> if a terrorist wants to launder money and set up a n nevada -- >> if i knew. that's the thing. if i know. >> i was reading on your website, corporation wise, there is no wrt bay to cloak your assets other than remove them from the country. >> for doesn't say that. >> for does. i am reading off the website.
there is no better way to cloak the assets from the public. >> can i have a minute? >> sure. >> that's a typo. i don't mean that. to remove them from the public view is what i meant. >> that's a typo. there you go. we have no idea if he is hiding dirty money and his business is illegal. there registered agents like him across the country and someone changed the law and tell you about that tonight and how people are getting filthy rich behind shell corporations. right here on cnbc. >> sounds like a good one. we have more when we come back. stay tuned. "why did i roll over my i.r.a. to scottrade?" "for starters, it didn't cost me anything."
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♪ ...that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be. we know you'd like to see the same information your advisor does so you can get a deeper understanding of what's going on with your portfolio. we know all this because we asked you, and what we heard helped us create pnc wealth insight, a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement. time for the final trade. >> there is a lot of bad news baked into hewlett and that means it's worth a look. >> it keeps weakening and the rotation into metals. fcx. >> get some and wait for jc pen to report. buy it on the dip. >> i like the ultra deep waters with oil up here. pacific drilling. pacd. >> we had