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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 29, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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and barry said, i would have to recover my sense because i would go nuts if i win. >> we'll save is for tomorrow about j.p. morgan because it made me have thoughts about mr. greg smith. >> formerly of goldman sachs. that does it today. time for the fast money half time report back at hq. >> carl, thanks so much. four hours to go until the close. here's where we stand on the street. take a look at major averages as the quarter does wind down. you take a look at the dow industrials, down 7 or 8 points as well. take a look at crude oil. crude now lowest level since february 17. an interesting story we're following across all the commodity space today. also taking a look at what gold is doing. nat gas down another 5% today. we're going to tell you how to trade it.
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let's get to the top stories we're following on today's half time show. we continue to map out your second quarter playbook. today's focus, as i said, commodities. we're talking at a top chart watcher, a fundamentalist who says gold is a safe bbet, no lo safe haven. the traders have some stock picks you probably haven't even considered. are investors in this high flyer cruising for a bruising? hi, welcome to the fast money halftime report. lots of trades today. get to our second quarter playbook. in commodities, some big winners and losers in the energy space. refiners having a great quarter while coal names have tanked. as you get set up for the second quarter, what do you do? >> with the commodity space now, you absolutely have to separate
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them. coal is challenged altogether. you talked about natural gas at the start of the show. coal is going to be challenged. the base metals, those types of things, that's where you need to ask yourself, okay, china is the biggest consumer. is the slowdown in china mature or close to a maturing end, or will there be some kind of pickup in the last half of the year? if that's the case, you want to look at some of these base metals, like dbe. if china is going to start kicking around and the u.s. economy gets going, that's not a bad place to be. >> as we have this conversation, let's get right to nat gas because it's been the story the last couple days. nat gas falling for a fourth straight session after a new ten-year low after a surprising jump in u.s. supplies. as the nat gas selloff continues, what's the best way to play this? i think that's the best way to handle this, guys, obviously if nat gas continues the decline
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that we've seen, we need to figure out what the best ways to play that are. grasso? >> what's the most obvious plays we've talked about. they've been your chemical plays, right, they've been your firt plays. but if you look at these charts, i'm hesitant to drop in at those levels. you want to stay away from the nat gas companies because the environment is very challenged for them. what about a company likes usg? we've seen them run already. look at what they do. they hedge their nat gas, but they're only hedged out to a portion of 201267. so only about 60 to 70% of their hedges will be floating on the nat gas side. so for them that's going to increase margins for them drastically. >> stephanie, i read a report today that suggested steel names are a good way to play nat gas. if it's cheaper to produce steel
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with nat gas than it is coal, that's one way to go, and perhaps the traders sitting at home wherever they are watching the program wouldn't obviously think of. >> i think you can point to a few steel names but there is a lot of supply in steel. that's the problem. contrast that with some of the chemical companies that have pricing power. so, you know, to steve's point, chemical companies will benefit but i think you want to focus on the companies that have a dominant pricing structure, like eye dupont where 30% of their business is ag, which still remains pretty strong, and they're at 22. i like that one. you can also look at the companies like newell rubbermaid. they spend a lot of money on res in and that has come back down. >> for a time like letter x, for example, u.s. steel.
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if you can bring your costs down by producing nat gas rather than coal, do you view that as a plus and a reason to get into some of these names here? >> i wouldn't think that would be the major catalyst because we have to remember, as stephanie said, there are so many other moving parts for the stee steel equation. look at the first one. you think of china. you want to think of supply issues first before input costs are calculated. >> cortez, what is your way to play the nat gas trade here? >> to avoid because of low natural gas prices, and i think there's two places to avoid. the first one is solar. tan, if you look at the etftan for the solar space, we're possibly going to close at an all-time low today. sfpr has seen a similar type of move. the second play i would look to avoid is emerging markets. if you look at russia, not just
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china, it is at a two-month low today. so energy-producing countries have not enjoyed these high crude prices. one of the reasons is because of these extremely low gas prices. they're allowing the united states to march ever more, ever closer to energy independence, which i think will be a reality. for the near term, natural gas is incredibly oversold. i tried to buy two days ago, i got stopped out of that trade, but i'm interested in the long side here for natural gas. >> give me a way you're doing that. if you're interested in doing it, how would do it? >> ung. i'm not in it now but i'm interested in trying to do it again. i have no doubt that natural gas will end up in a love handle. we'll be able to take natural gas out of the sidewalk cracks, it seems. but the boon on natural gas is so high right now, as a trader,
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i'm temtd to tapted to take the side on a trade. >> let's bring in patrick armstrong from armstrong investment managers, a boutique management firm focused on multi-investing. it's good to have a new face to the program. you've heard the discussion. how doucet yourself up here given you're managing money in a whole different asset manager classes? >> i think the market was very converse ending last year and there was lots of opportunities. we were building corporate positions last year based on the hope that china would begin restocking. we've had very good luck on that not taking profits right now. we've been improving our gold positions, but now gold and equity correlation is moving towards 1. it's at .8 right now. it's a speculative asset right now, gold, so you're not getting the diversification benefits you saw historically. we are seeing value on
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currencies, emerging market currencies, mexican peso much better growth. they also benefit from the quantitative easing, the ltro, the printing of money that has to happen for the west to address the issues it's facing right now. >> i have traders. brian kelly is sitting next to me and he's the first. >> i'm curious where you come down on the china-consuming metals, let's call it, debate. a lot of people are saying it's the growth rate that matters or simply just the level of demand. as long as china continues to consume at this same level, copper, tin, that type of thing, should find a base here. >> i think right now they could go either way. it's not going to come down to growth, it's going to come down to whether china wants to build inventories, so i don't think you'll see massive selloffs at
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these levels. we think growth will disappoint. we think the consensus is getting more and more bullish, but we think china will come in and start to build positions in all the metals should you see price deterioration here. we think selloffs would be good buying opportunities. >> patrick, i see on your list you're long platinum as well. >> yeah, platinum you're getting the benefits of precious metals. every country is in a race to debase its currency, to complete its competitiveness, so you're getting a real asset with platinum, but you're also getting exposure to catalytic converters. there's real assets to platinum. the dual usage as well as the industrial uses. >> natural gas is a short. how are you doing it? what's your thought there? i'm sure you heard the top of the program as we discussed opportunities to trade that space. >> we're short the front month contract with natural gas, and it's very rare when fundamentals support something that you don't
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have to pay to do it. with natural gas, you get paid to be short because the contracts are in quite steep contango. every month when you're selling the front end contract to sell the short you just had, because of that contango you get that short month. you don't have the supply response in natural gas that you would usually get, because natural gas, a lot of the new productions coming on as a by-product from crude. you're not going to see crude drilling and slowdown because natural gas is produced as a consequence, so you'll not get the supply you would normally get. >> let's talk about equities as well. it's been a great quarter notwithstanding, obviously. give us an idea where you think the equities will go in the next couple months. >> our biggest problem with equities is short stocks. very expensive.
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based on consecutive estimates, earnings will double over the next two years. it will see the whole of the stocks double next year. but we do see value in large companies, companies that have pricing power, exposure to emerging markets, coca-cola, big exposure to emerging market growth. louis vuitton, tiffany, swatch. companies that have revenue growth and the ability to pass on higher prices to consumers. >> understood. patrick, again, great to have you on the program. thanks for your insights. >> thank you. >> stephanie, what do you think? >> the one thing i'm interested in, actually, is if the global economy is slowing, which we know it is, when is china going to ease, and is that going to be the catalyst to see a reversal in some of these names? so you kind of can't get too negative. a lot of these stocks are down a lot, so i think you have to kind of pick your spots, and at least
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on the commodity side we're under in energy, but i still like ag and i still like copper. >> patrick and i could face-off on the opposite side of his entire portfolio. i am short both of his positions. it's one of the reasons, for instance, i'm short. caterpillar, for instance, i think is going to break 100. all four bricks are trading at two-month lows. i think we're in the very early stages of an em unwind, and to stephanie's point, i have no doubt that at some point the chinese will try to save their market through monetary policy. i think that balance will be very short lived and i think it will be one to sell. >> cortez, if you saw that call today from morgan stanley which raised its china gdp outlook from 9% to 8.5, thereabouts. >> at the same time they also lowered their egp analysis.
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>> you realize you're sort of on the outlyer's side, morgan stanley talking about what's happening in china and others talking about the growth concerns being overrated? >> absolutely, i'm comfortable as the outlyer. i still think the china story is the greatest risk to global markets and i think we're in the early stages of the unwind. shanghai composite is now 8.5% off this month's highs, so the selling has been truly intense. >> cortez, cortez. listen, share prices are down, we've already seen the chinese government buy banking stocks. we know they're not going to let their economy just completely fall off the cliff. how does that figure into your analysis? things are weakening, yeah, but -- >> we'll get his answer after the break, cortez, because we're going to take one right now. coming up, is an end in sight to research in motion?
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talking 16,000, maybe even 17,000 by the end of 2013. >> yeah, i think that's definitely possible. not only based on past evidence on returns after we've had bad five and ten-year periods which, of course, we've had in the past, but i think most persuasively because of evaluation of the market. i think compared to bonds, it's one of the cheapest stock markets i've seen. >> all right, that was wharton professor jeremy siegel earlier on nbc. that was on skwa"squawk box" th morning. i guess that's another man you disagree with. >> trying to project 2013 is pretty tough. i'm trying to get to the end of this year. >> i've been buying bonds, and i did in terms of bringing this to a near tactical conversation, bonds have had a terrific run in the last week, so if you're long
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at&t, i think it's great to take bonds. i see an entirely big risk in the rest of the world. i think europe and china are disasters, frankly. >> now that the hearings for the health care plan is over, how do you predict it will end? steve? what's the trade? >> the trade is i took off part of my position at wellpoint, left just over half the position. here's the reasoning. since it came out, all the commentary about the supreme court hearings and how the court seems predisposed to overturning obamacare, these stocks have been straight up, and i just don't think it's that easy. while i still like wellpoint, stock in more than half the position, i thought it prudent to take stocks off the table because we never know how a court decision is going to turn out. and even though it's three months away, take a look at the
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valuation. right now it's ten times trailing basis, about nine times on a 2012 forward basis. that's where these stocks should trade right now. >> i guess the point you're making is to not read too much in oral arguments and what you think the decision will come down to in oral arguments. >> that's exactly right, and if obamacare does fail, it means the profitability of the wellpoint and so forth goes up. none of the risks are there because they have to take preexisting conditions, and they don't have to take a lot of the uninsurable people that can't get insurance now. so that would hurt their medical loss ratio and that's why the stocks are up. it's not a slam dunk, so i took some position. >> wlp is what we're talking about here? >> wlp having a great day today. that's at 5%. wlp is doing well over the last week because of their exposure
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to medicaid. >> steve, i know you've also been watching this case pretty closely. >> steve, i agree with you taking half the position because obviously the charts are indicative of that, but i think it's important for the viewer at home to just break out if they do away with the individual mandate and they keep the obamacare intact otherwise, then basically you want to be selling the hmo space and probably buying hospitals. >> what if they keep the whole thing intact? >> if they keep the whole thing intact, it's a little bit wi wishy-washy here. the hospital is getting payout ratios so i think it's a little bit status quo. just be careful on that individual mandate. >> i have to run, all right? >> thanks. >> let's run to research in motion. today the blackberry maker head bid new ceo is currently on all
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time highs. i look at your note today and you break it down pretty clearly. it's going to get worse, and here are ten reasons why. i'm not going to go through all ten, obviously, but give us the number one factor as to why you don't see this story getting any better. >> the number one factor is simply the company is not in no vagt to the extent its competitors are coming out with new products, faster web surfing, more integration of photos, internet, games, useful tools. ri rim needs to innovate faster. >> isn't rim's biggest problem apple? let's be honest. at the end of the day, no matter what rim does from this day forward, it's not apple. it's not coming out with the iphone 4s. it's not coming out with theiph. >> where apple has in novateinn
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samsung and android is also innova innovating. apple is seizing that opportunity and running with it. samsung is doing pretty well also. rim needs to innovate. it comes back to those basics 101. the company needs to innovate. apple is the one doing the best job of that currently. >> so on the conference call tonight, what would you hear in the conference call that would change your mind here, that would say, you know what, maybe this is at least a neutral if not a buy. they're not going to say we came out with a brand new phone, but is there any positive ray of hope there for rim? >> there is. what i'd like to see them do is say we don't care about near term profits, we're focusing on long term profits. we want to come up with new products sooner than later and we're going to launch a product in early summer to meet back-to-school demand. if they miss back-to-school demand, that's the next leg
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down. >> jim, thanks for coming on the program today. appreciate it. just give me a comment, grasso, i guess, if you would, on research in motion. let's assume the story plays the way that analyst and frankly most of the traders at this point think that it's going to do, that they disappoint, that the stock sells off and maybe sells off somewhat substantially after hours. do you pick it up for a trade because of that selloff? >> put it this way. if you look at how many times you could have picked it up for a trade, it's a losing endeavor. this is not your one only position that your eyeballs are looking at. so i would not be trading rim at this point because it's a continuation of lower, lower, lower lows. >> let's take a look as we head to break at the qs and also apple. there's the qs as well down 1%. there is a report today from wedge partners which says ipad sales could disappoint. you can only say doubt apple and
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its sales power at your own peril, right, bk? >> absolutely. i think a lot of people are looking at the apple sales and the traffic there. but remember, there are a lot more distribution outlets this time than any other time in ipad's history. you can buy one all over the place. i wouldn't count apple out at all. >> up next, one of our traders made a move on a retail name up 300% in the past three years. find out what stephanie threw in her shopping bag just after the break. an investment opportunity you didn't see before. fidelity's next generation ipad app lets you see what's trending around the world, as well as what over a million fidelity customers are trading throughout the day. and advanced charting lets you customize your views and set up your own comparisons. our ipad app can help refine your strategy or even find a new one.
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welcome back to the fast money halftime report. priceline was at $800. they are going to benefit from secular travel funds. you'll recall another analyst raised his price target to $1,000. cortez, the reason i'm coming straight to you on this is in your words europe is a disaster but it certainly is not a disaster for priceline. so there are plays that play directly into europe that
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certainly seem to be performing quite well. >> right. and scott, i will say, yes, priceline has been a fantastic momentum play. it's on my radar screen, though, as a stock to perhaps bet against as precisely the reason you mentioned, and that is europe. we look at spain for year lows today. spanish banks trading in a troubling manner. italian market really rolling over today. so given all that, can priceline really continue to justify these prices? my guess is no, but i'm not involved yet, but definitely on the radar. >> you can make an argument, cortez, from a settling standpoint it's been much worse in europe than it is today. i'm talking over the last 18 months or so. and priceline has bucked that trend as well. >> that's the reason so far the momentum has been undenial on pri -- undeniable on priceline. >> even in the worst of what was the european financial crisis --
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i'm not saying it's over -- but even in the worst of it, priceline was able to perform. i still think it goes higher. >> but when you guys say it was able to perform, it tacked on 200 points, basically, after those fears subsided a little bit. when you're looking at these high flyers, and if you look at the tape, whenever we get these short bursts of selloffs, the first place you see the bulk of it coming out of are the high flyer names. just be careful if you buy the stock here. >> ralph lauren shares are up 3% in the last three years. for more on how they're competing with the major players, let's bring in courtney reagan who is live in their store on madison court, court? >> it's sort of like ralph lauren block here. ralph lauren grew up right here in the bronx and is the official
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outfitter for the olympic teams. for more than 40 years, ralph lauren has built valuable brand we can it equi equity. it's sold through a variety of retailers, macy's and furniture sold at abc carpet and home. unlike department stores, brands have a stronger growth trajectory, catering to a universal global zip code company. shapiro thinks ralph lauren is one of those brands that can capitalize. this strategy and the valuable equity has catapulted the brand to be worth more than $16 billion in caps. those ultimate highs hit two weeks ago. the brand is very valuable to investors and consumers, even dishonest ones. unfortunately, ralph lauren is
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one of the most counterfeited brand names in the world. speaking of dishonest, weeks ago, a $25,000 handbag was shoplifted from a store here on the upper east side, though the company just recently reported it to authorities. scott? >> all right, court, thanks so much. stephanie link, you liked the stock. you're sold on it and you've been a buyer. >> we're carefully buying it, but as courtney said, they have phenomenal brands, and this company is going to use their brands and they'll be able to grow double digit top line, double digit bottom line and in retail. in retail, they're expanding internationally. they will be able to offset higher raw material costs. get the pricing and you have the leverage to the bottom line. by the way, i think asia is a huge opportunity for them. it could be a $3 billion opportunity in the next three years. i think that's where your incremental growth is going to
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come. >> the word carefully could give people a bit of pause. why do you say carefully, in terms of buying a stock carefully? and what exactly do you mean? >> as you say, the stock has had a heck of a move. i thought it was interesting just because it's down 6% from its high, it was off by 2% yesterday. i feel like it's a volatile stock and i like to trade into a position starting small and then as it falls, you kind of really build it up. 170 or under 170 would be much more agressive. >> i understand. appreciate that. >> if you haven't been to that store on madison avenue, by the way, that's a beautiful store. but i would be very careful with this. since it's up 3%, that doesn't mean it goes straight down, but i would be buying it carefully as well if i were buying it. >> let's top about hops apops a drops today. we start with red hat popping
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70%. >> unbelievable earnings here. we're surprised at the demand for their lenox. i think this is a winner for a while. >> illumina popping 17%. >> nice pop in the stock today. i love pharmaceuticals as a space but it's had a terrific run. i think it's time to take profits. >> and sprint. >> seeking alpha actually did a nice article on them. they're not the smallest player, they're not the biggest player, and they have a great line-up of multi-mode network phones coming out or staying out, i should say. they're going to benefit in the near term. >> and steph, walgreen's, dropping 2%. >> the reality is setting in that express scripts and medco are going to merge. that's a big loss for walgreen's. >> and bears not on wall street
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let's get to three of the top trades we're watching halfway through the show today. here it is on the wall, at least for the first one. it's best buy getting absolutely hammered after earnings this morning. stephanie, down 8 and a third percent. >> this was an ugly quarter which wasn't really surprising. they beat on the bottom line, missed on the top line. margins continue to be a problem, competition is fierce and they're really slow in restructuring. >> second on our list, shares of rexnord seeing things pop. >> this has been the story of
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the ipo market recently. we saw annie's yesterday coming outweigh tremendous pop. if this continues, it will lead into some capital markets rebounds, and i believe we're talking about financials next which is where i would go with these. >> some of the worst performers today, i'll take you through some of the names here. you can see citigroup and bank of america are down 2%, but you're looking at losses across the board, grasso. >> we watched them all pop and pop further after that stress test came out. we really need the market to continue to climb higher. if you're going to be in these names, i would rather be in a bb & t or a bank. as for the rest of the space, i would rather take a breather and keep my profits. >> george bank is down 4%. that's a very big move for a bank that large, so you have to
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keep your eye on european financials. >> take a listen to what our own brian kelly ha to say about molycorp back in december. >> if you think there is any type of slowing in the economy, this is not a place you want to be. it's a broken stock. i would get out. >> with strong fiscal year 2011 results reported in february, shares of the producer are up 17% since that call. >> yeah, clearly a bad call. surprises me every time, too. >> notice i didn't say, happens to the best of us. >> i still think that molycorp is a momentum stock, and when they break they're very hard to trade. clearly wrong on this. since i was wrong on it, i'm not sure i'm qualified to make an opinion on it now, so i'll just say stay away and do something else. >> grasso, do you have something to say? >> i'm looking at the chart right now and beaks is right.
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it probably has a little more on the upside if all things add well. i would stay away from it, too. i don't have the stomach for this. >> what are the technicals telling us about q2? mark harris, director of trading at campbell and company, is here to check the charts. ma michael, thanks for coming back to the show. >> i think the first market i want to look at is copper. if you look at the charts, you'll see a tighter and tighter range. 388 on the up side. very tight range there. we're waiting for a breakout in that market and i think we might get it with the official pmi data out of china. we had a reading of 51 last month. we're looking at about 50.6 to come out on the official side. remember we had a weaker reading on the number a week ago, and that really got the markets into a bit of fear and risk off mode. so we'll be watching to see whether or not we break out on
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that chart. >> hey, mike, brian kelly, on copper and the technical trading of this, and i also know you guys tend to be a little bit more of a trend falling. how do you trade this type of market in copper? you have that number this weekend. are you guys coming into it short? >> we actually have a small long position. if you look at the medium term trend over the last three months, it's still in an up trend, but the position is relatively small and i think that reflects the fact that we're very range bound here, so we're waiting for that breakout move whether it's to the up side or the down side. even if it moves to the down side, our model will cover that position and look to move short. >> i looked at dennis gartman's letter where he said -- and he'll be sitting in on the program tomorrow -- he said dismayed by gold selloff yesterday, ill advised and wrong. what's your take on where gold goes from here based on what you think the fundamental story is and the technical you're watching?
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>> if you take a look at the charts, over the last six months we've been in a very range-bound market from 1530 to 1800. you can see we're right around the middle of the range right now. once again we'll need another big catalyst to break out of the range and start a new trend. i think one of the things to watch next week will be the n non-payment release on friday, saying the real focus is going to be on employment looking forward and a lot of traders trying to price back in the quantitative use of 3. if you look at what appeared at qe1 and qe2, they rotated into gold. if we see a higher unemployment reading than the market is expecting to friday, qe3 is going to start getting priced back in and i think that will be positive for gold. >> give me a comment on gold? >> i'm short silver right now. i think it's worth noting that bernanke came out with very
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dervish comments on monday. i think even worse than the metals are the stocks. if you look at newport, for instance, or gdx, the gold miners, they are at multi year lows. i would stay away. >> michael will give a comment on that and just tell us about this tremendous breakdown we're seeing in nat gas. >> we like to say the trend is your friend, and that's very, very true when it comes to the trend we've seen in natural gas in the last months, if not the last year. and today it was just another example where we had supply figures come out higher than expectations and the market took another move to the down side. one of the hardest things about trading is certainly the human emotions surrounding it. i think everyone is going to start looking at that big psychological level at $2. >> if you get that one handle, a dollar and whatever, and it certainly seems it could be in the near future, that could be a really interesting story. >> hey, mike, what is your
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favorite metal? what is the chart that looks the best to you in commodities? >> on the metal side, as i said, it's very choppy. when you look at copper, when you look at the base metals, we have a lot of shorts in the base metals. once again, the models don't have a conviction from a sector perspective, so i think you have to get this news out of the way in the next couple weeks so we have a firmer driver going into q2. >> mike, good seeing you, as always. >> thank you. >> mike harris from campbell and company. there is a current strategy to turn the global pain into your gain. money in motion when we come back. and i thought "i can't do this, it's just too hard." then there was a moment. when i decided to find a way to keep going. go for olympic gold and go to college too. [ male announcer ] every day we help students earn
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they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. and coming up on "power lunch," the new man at the elm of paypal. exclusive interview with ceo>> don: -- don donahue. the incredible run of costco. if you had put money in that company a few years back, you may have doubled, tripled, even quadrupled your money. is it too late to get in now? >> growth concerns ramping up in europe again, sending europe markets at a low of yields and spain literally higher.
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let's talk to amelia bordeaux. amelia, welcome back. >> thanks, skolt. >> the euro dollar. not a lot of people talking about that in the last couple weeks. >> right. there's been a risk in the market. plus 30 the figure. in spain they're going to release their 2012 budget and the market is really anticipating this. they're anticipating the fiscal consolidation that's within that budget to see if it's enough to meet criteria for the eeu. so there's some headline risk with euro and i like to short it into the weekend, actually. >> what's the level you're looking at on that trade? >> i'm looking to actually sell euro on the dollar at a break of 1.3240. i'm looking at the bottom of what the trade has been trading in. i'm putting a stop at 133.10. >> the range state in the euro is probably the only way to do it at this point.
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it's been untradeable from a longer term perspective. i like this trade a lot for tomorrow's news. >> you're looking at the headlines in the bottom screen as well. both bk and amelia, i don't know if you can see it. the feds plosser is making some comments. should not provide additional accommodation. a lot of this plays into where you think the dollar may go in the near future. >> it does. plus, that's not unexpected from plosser to say that. i would just say when you're talking about the dollar, it wouldn't surprise me to see the fed continue to ease but not print more money. some kind of operations twist, some sterilized qe where you get a stronger dollar. >> i think it will be exciting to see next friday's payroll number. i think the market is at about 200,000, so that may dispel some of these worries that the fed is going to ease further, let's put it that way, but we're kind of stuck in no-man's land with the fed. they're not continuing to use
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qe3, yet they're not bringing that time forward when they're going to hike rates. so we definitely need more stronger data. >> to me the story today is japanese yen -- >> story the last couple weeks. >> yes. all month, in fact. but i'm saying the story of a turnaround at least for the day. the yen has been killed during the month of march but roaring back overnight. i'm short euro currency against japanese yen. what's your recommendation for the yen going forward? >> i think there are a couple things going on. it's fiscal year end in japan. you have corporates repay traiting. the next thing strengen as a safe haven when bernanke came out and questioned the growth recovery in the u.s. economy saying he didn't know it was strengthen. and it's been strengthening about two weeks. china growth concerns are going
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to slow down in the chinese data. i think investors will use this opportunity at least pick it up around 82 looking for a move to 84 ahead of payrolls next week. >> amelia, great. thanks. talk to you soon. >> thank you. >> up next, you asked us questions on twitter. we're answering them. we have your trade off the tweets when we come back. ♪ ♪
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welcome back to the "halftime report."
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let's get to your tweets now as we hit the twicker. first one today bill asks aig ceo government taxpayer will make a profit. is aig a good long-term investment? >> stephanie? >> i like it a lot. they've done a good job streamlining into a property casualty insurance. they're getting better pricing. life insurance should do well with the overall market. i think the valuation is also attractive. >> b.k., regions pull back. >> absolutely. sf heart, i love san francisco as well if that's what that means. regions financial i also like. no more speculative but i still like this. they're paying back their t.a.r.p. one that's underperformed in the financial space. still get in. >> science trader asks just wondering if i should take my gain in google or wait. grasso. >> put it this way, we heard a bunch of analysts say that they just hold the entire search space. i think it's something above 97% as far as mobile search.
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they've locked up the whole industry. you know, you want to buy this one in tranches. you want to buy in 10% pieces. divide it up that way. >> cortes. >> scott, i'm long google. i like the tentacle breakout above 625. i think android is getting too little respect and apple getting too much. the street was unanimous almost in the opinion that apple was going to catch google in price. i don't think that's going to happen. johnny never gets that movie. and apple never catches google in price. >> i got to make sure this is working. you said you're long something? >> i am. but on spread. i'm long google, short apple on spread. >> and short johnny -- what's with applied materials? ceo lowered guidance only a bit but weighed down. stephanie. >> this company continues to have issues on the margin side. i thought the ceo did a great job this morning on "squawk box" in terms of talking about how they're going to need -- with more features coming out in kind
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of smartphones and in tablets and et cetera, the price is go you need more go up. i prefer lam research better because of the novellus acquisition. >> we'll find out what our traders do and don't like in final trades. and how much the people in your life count on you. that's why we offer accident forgiveness, where your price won't increase due to your first accident. we also offer a hassle-free lifetime repair guarantee, where the repairs made on your car are guaranteed for life, or they're on us. these are just two of the valuable features you can expect from liberty mutual. plus, when you insure both your home and car with us, it could save you time and money. at liberty mutual, we help you move on with your life, so get the insurance responsible drivers like you deserve.
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call us at... or visit your local liberty mutual office, where an agent can help you find the policy that's right for you. liberty mutual insurance, responsibility -- what's your policy?
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time for final trades as we go around the horn. miss link. >> ibm, big blue. we own it in charitable trust. conversion from hardware to software services. and i like what kpen sure said last week in terms of their revenue. i like the start of that. >> grasso. >> altria group. i like to buy this on dips. if there's a little bit of window dressing, you might get a chance to buy this one on a dip with over a 5% yield own this one. >> scott, the much-hated japanese yen has room to run and i'm long it. if i'm wrong, take profits on toyota. >> b.k.
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