tv Squawk on the Street CNBC April 12, 2012 9:00am-12:00pm EDT
we have a little bit of time. do you cover -- >> do you cover your shorts on health care? >> we did did. on the plan, the obamacare hinge that everybody seems to think is this great meddling is phenomenal. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" starts right now. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm melissa lee with jim cramer and investors trying to hold on to recent optimism as negative news continues to mount. let's take a look at the futures board. a tepid open. it is the bond auctions impacting the picture over in europe. we're watching how that impacts us. we have seen many times so far this week. let's hit a road map. increasing job lless claims.
could this pull the plug on the market's recent rally? google will be the first big earnings report tonight. will weakness perplex once again? nat gas breaks the $2 mark. should you buy nat gas for the long term. and another spill in the the gulf of mexico. shares lower on news of a one by ten mile sheen. a developing story we're monitoring, but we are seeing the impact this morning on those shares. but we have to start off here at home. it is appointi disdisappointing jobless claims and yields ri s rising to the ht since mid-january. sold about a full point higher compared to a month ago. it is the latest sign investors worries about spain are spreading to other eurozone countries and, david, we actually heard from the oecd saying italy is at risk of
contagion. >> last year it was fear of italy contaminating everybody else as their bond yields crossed over the 7% mark. rearly we're not near there, but we do seem to be back to a certain extent. we talked about this yesterday in this this will dynamic where we'll start the market day talking about europe, keeping an eye on the yields. ltro be damned at this point. >> we don't have any growth. we always come back to growth as what the drivers of markets. we have an employment number today, not great. maybe not must have growth in this country. all the austerity that we're hearing, george soros wrote a good piece this morning talking about how there's just no carrot here. you insist on austerity, but you don't do anything puppet masters in germany to make it so that you get rewarded if you do the right thing. and i think italy is -- >> does this tell that you there is no decoupling? before we were all heartened by the earnings and alcoa's
earnings were viewed as positive. and we can separate what is going on in europe mfrom what i going on here in the united states. do we throw it out the window at this will point? >> i don't want to do that. if alcoa reported again today, it would be a god send. i want to send out that china had great lungs last night. china is very important. we have growth there talking about iron prices back to where they were six months ago. that it's like copper, copper has been bad. so you try to figure out the different metals. our country is reporting a serious pre-announcements. they were almost all good. the old westinghouse era. a locomotive company. when sherwin williams says don't pre-judge us, it's interior paint sale, tractor supply, this is one of those companies that literally is the heart and soul of rich people who garden and farm. so i come back, the mike skroe
good, we could talk mac company until the cows come home. >> hard to understand on any given day and that will dominate the discussion and psychology of trade. >> they didn't know to college to get stupid. one of the thing will s we've s they've recognized there's a way to deal with the problem. when something is conceivable, you tend to have a plan for it. which is why i think that contagion issue is not as bad. i think if you politely say doesn't matter, then it just comes back and bites you ne s immediately. >> and something we'll be with conceivably for years. liquidity suggestions and l it tro and great success of giving that 1% money for three years to the banks solved a potentially liquidity crisis, nonetheless we're still dealing with the sole ve
solvency question. if you don't have growth -- the way i think about it, you have an income statement, you're looking at europe as a company, which way is it headed. >> but i would short that company and go long the u.s. or i'd go long apple. this is one of those things, at my old hedge fund, i'd be saying what does it have to do with the rice of earnings multiple of apple. and the answer is not that much. >> it's not like they don't sell wi in europe, like continued recession will hurt that company or many companies that sell there. and then the overarching concern still about the financial system. things we don't know and continue not to know in terms of linkages. >> i would have thrown it at you at my old hedge fund for coming up with that analysis because i would say are you keeping me out of apple with that, is that what you're trying to do? are you trying to get me so short google? the tension for people at home, you understand, i know like i've tweeted @jim cramer. people said i don't want to hear about it.
you got it hear about it. >> not a phone, not a printer. >> a glass bottle. >> phones were tethered then. that was the problem. so hash so hard to get know men up. >>dy throw a p vchlpc once. i was a ms.ed at how intel acted in a selloff. i was watching cnbc and entell was just holding it and holding it. turns out my screen was frozen, so i took -- >> screen or the cpu? >> the screen. i took the screen and i threw it at the glass window. and you can tell wall street had thought a lot about that. that window did not break. a lesson. >> well, let's talk individual stocks, shall we? google set to report earnings after the bell. analysts have relatively muted expectations. google's shares recently trading within 100 point range.
fairly significant range. a $640 stock, so percentage-wise not as great as you might expect. here we are again, google more than many companies does get a big move and oftentimes guys get it wrong. but the big move after hours. a lot of people try to play it and you do get a big move off the earnings. >> for this quarter, the options market pricing in a plus or minus 6% move for in quartthis . last quarter, a big down move. and that is the issue that we were talking about yesterday as all these companies try and move more towards mobile which is where the future is. can't makes a much on mobile, period, so the question is can they make up for the lower margins on volume. can they get more people to qulik, click, click. >> that's been the tone of the research, that they can. but i would tell people that the research has been so long on this company, that people have been saying that things are better. the only thing that i find,
there's two issues compelling for google. one is that its competitor is yahoo! and that is a competitor losing gravitas by the day. but you have to push mobile and that will push down gross margins. and agrees margins are really the holy grail. >> isn't that competitor more on the par of microsoft and facebook? if we keep saying yahoo! doesn't have a mobile strategy and that is the future, then that is a competitor that is bear lay competitor. it's barely competing at this point. >> but yahoo! if you're in the content business, there's someone you got to talk to them, you have to talk about how much the give and take -- these are negotiations that happen behind the scenes about if we give you content, how much will you you put back to us. and i think google is in a much better powerful situation. by the way, google very well run these days. initially people felt google was all over the place. you talked about the acquisition. that's the most worrisome thing
to me. >> the mobility deal. we focused on it a bit, but it's still a strange deal. let's step back and think about are they really going to be in the hand set business? they'll be manufacturing handsets. by the way, selling again to other companies that will then use the android system, but they'll be making the phones. >> they have made it clear that they want to keep it an open system so android will not be the exclusive system apple has created. but what is nokia telling us in terms of the competition, the lower to mid end of these android handsets. so all of a sudden google bought a hardware company, they'll probably come out with some sort of hardware and what will the margins be when already competitors out there that have dominant market share, will they have trouble making mar continukimargins, too. >> it if you bought it for patents -- >> looking for an earnings
report saying how are they doing on hair hair their handset marg? >> i don't know what the future is for google because i have no visibility whatsoever for this motorola business. >> probably much smaller than the youtube deal represented when google bought that way back when. but it's still something we need to be aware of and it has not been taken well by investors. >> the stock's done nothing. >> and since when. since when has it done nothing. since mobility acquisition? >> since the beginning of the year you'll see that it's just been comatose. a lot of people want to own the stock simply because it hasn't done anything versus the big nasdaq rally. that's never enough for me. just doesn't cut it for me. >> who knows.
you end up with a much better gross margin than we think. showing controlled costs again. you just never know. generating cash up the wazoo. >> alcoa has a lot of graof gre markets. tomorrow they'll say that was disappointing or that was great. >> and we should know this is the last earnings report before facebook goes public. so interesting to see what they say with regards to facebook and whether they address this competition that will become a public traded company and in terms of investor dollar, if they move money away from companies that have not done anything for the year and put it in to a facebook. >> one of the reasons why some of these yelp kind of deals, et, ml, the millennium, one of the reasons why these deals have worked is because if you're a hedge fund manager, you want to show, look, i took the stock down, i bought yelp, i'm keeping
it, i want my 10% circle. circle being the nomenclature chur you use to say i want my allocation. and i think that's helping the market, too. people want to show that they're holders of the high expensive dot com names. i think facebook can make the acquisition of instragram and no one caress. if it was public, people would be saying what the heck. >> very smart instead of waiting. >> time will tell. >> we could be ridiculed, but i know there's a lot of good chatter about, wait a second, they bought youtube, a lot of us go to youtube how. gr and ebay bought pay pal early on and that was a great move. clearly lots of examples that prove the other side of things. should point out google beaten earnings 74% of the time, never
missed on earnings in two consecutive quarters. >> so good indication it will meet or beat. >> it would be a first if it missed again. >> fabulous work. a pulse of the market for a long time. >> and he has been bullish lately. >> nat gas meantime, got to touch that, 2 bucks this morning. forecast $2.40 per million btu. we should know second quarter and third quarter, they're seeing prices of $2.10. so holding lower. they've been wrong obviously. >> i was looking at that with a one in front of it is stunning. it really is. broad ramifications, but then there is just the price of the actual -- >> look, i don't know -- there's been shut-ins, but also a lot of companies that have bought land and you know these contracts. when you do the mineral deals, you have to start drilling. so it's kind of like just they
can cut back all they want. these comes come in and they are are's dri drilling and no place to put it. i had the energy partners ceo on. we just have way too much of this stuff. this is an al roker call. they're saying the weather will be cold next year. i don't like to bet on the the weather. always been a sucker play. >> we know there are broad winners for the u.s. economy. but there have to be a lot of losers. even speculators on the -- >> a lot of people speculate about a bottom of coal. >> jim schchanos saying he shor the coal names. we take a look at the individual coal names and just over the past month, increase in shortage has been tremendous. console energy had a 46.5% increase. alpha natural, up 17.9%.
so this has been becoming a crowded trade short the coal names. and goldman sachs is pointing out that all the conversions for utilities that have happened away in coal to nat gases have pretty much happened. that's that's it. so maybe there's a bottom here. >> csx do good coal loadings. if you want to play this, you know iron has bottomed. if you want to get a little coal here, this would be the saver na safe er maim. i thought maybe i have to rein it in. >> 30% year to date. shocking. >> that's the north face, not the jacket, but the way that it costs down. >> yes. coming up next, exclusive
welcome back to "squawk on the street." a lot of data this morning. we'll have a lot of data tomorrow. it seems as though the market is parsed one day to point in particular and as you look at these inter-day charts of three year, five year, ten year and see the way the yields dropped down, they were paying attention to the jump in jobless claims. there's a lot of debate as to seasonalities and holidays. but many really believe even though all of that contributed, that the real driving point here is that the warm weather, if you look at states that have warm weather all the time like california versus on other states that don't, these numbers in a positive way weeks and mn s months back were playing catch up, still a lot to grapple with consumer inflation tomorrow, but after you sub racketed, food and
energy. back to you. >> sony laying out plans to revive the struggling country, consulti cutting 10,000 jobs. turn back the clock. if you could make a mix tape for sony, remember those mixed tapes? what song would you pick as sony's new anthem. you can tweet us and we'll get your responses. everybody had mix tapes. >> fade into darkness. >> that's cold, man. >> i like. >> changes. >> that th's good. nothing comes to my mind. >> we have the whole show. >> i'll need it. >> up flex, as he said last night on mad money, sometimes stocks go up because they deserve to go up. unbelievable. now he'll help you pick out more of the most deserving. cramer's mad dash after it will. zap technology. arrival. with hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork.
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welcome back. we have about 6 1/2 minutes to the opening bell. positive research note from jpmorgan upgrading at&t. >> one of the reasons why i have propensity to like this stock market is when i hear the fan or yellen saying rates could say low for the foresee only future, i come back to a very stable name like this that gives and
you good yield. but the point of the pieces, maybe it's a housing play. expectations low for the wire line loss. this is the kind of company that people can own these days, not trade. >> that's true. although if you're looking for growth, real growth, it will be somewhat harder to come by. we look at margin, at&t's are not merely as good as verizon's, but a lot of this seems to be predicated on average use per mover. using more data as you have your ipad, as you have your iphone 4s, will we see it. >> you have turned my mind around on this idea that nobody is really making money with 4 gg. credit suisse has a note talking about apple and how it eat iphone exploding again. they like qualcomm. verizon is selling more iphones than at&t. >> and another thing we need to
keep an eye on. they say it's still coming and jpmorgan seems to believe it, that people will be spending r more for that big data plan and you start to capture the value from having all these 4guilty s4g services. >> this is a domestic company so i don't have to worry about spain. my cd is yielding almost nothing. bernanke by keeping rates down is telling you to buy at&t. at&t itself is not doing that much to grow. but i still get a good rate of return. i keep reinvesting the stock. david, this is why i like that kind of name. i like it because i don't get any money from my bank. >> you're right. and with the 2% yield again on a ten year, back down from 2.3% only a few weeks ago, here we are looking at the dividend yields which are so strong.
>> you get your money back with the five year. you get your money back with the ten year. that's fine. but i can't live on that. people can't live on the income. chanos really good comments today. how about the savers. if you save with at&t, you're doing just fine. >> melissa, over to you. looking for going he wi goo to open about four bucks higher. all the action plus the opening bell on the other side of this break. ♪
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introducing trade architect, td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. take control of your portfolio today. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. this is "squawk on the street." we're waiting for the opening bell here. just quickly on google, it continues to tick higher. >> sometimes stocks do telegraph. this one doesn't. it's been wrong a lot.
although i come back to what you said, it never missed two quarters, they seem to be -- >> here we have the opening bell. mj sharing network and the new york organ donor network celebrating national donate life month. and we're also watching apple. raising the price target to 750 from 700 citing iphone volume. the stock trading lower. i'm wondering if you think the stock at this point is going to trade range bound until the earns and many even after until the next product launch. >> i think that's a great call. sometimes these price take your get increases, they've lost their effectiveness. it just seems like the stock has -- a lot of them are chatting about the amazon monopoly. go to page 503 of his
unbelievable book and there it is. jobs made the case against the company. then we figured out what price to pay for these books. and how much we were willing to take. that's a justice department dream come true. so i think people are worried about apple. i will tell you that's not a good reason to worry. also potnot a good reason to bu amazon. am't make a lot of money on these. they're picky in the brain. what are we going to do today? we'll do world domination. >> not working out for help? >> just that it costs a lot of y tothe world. is there an amazon central bank? barnes & noble immediat barnes & noble needs an ltro. >> and speaking of of the barnes & noble type of company, best buy in the news once again.
a probe into brian dunn has to using company resources on conduct an inappropriate relationship with a female employee. this again according to the star tribune. >> and two kinds of reasons why people quit under a cloud. one is financial and the other is the zipper. >> it's always the zipper. >> 10 to 1 where the problem is the zipper, but this one i don't like anyway. >> if you bought hewlett-packard on mark herd's departure as a result of the so-called zipper, that would not have been a good move. something you might argue mr. herd looks back and is very thankful that he was dismissed because he would be looking at a lot of tougher problems than he encountered. certainly meg wlhitman would sa that, maybe not to your face. >> we don't talk about must hen
about what apple does with the tap let. cha thonos talked about how del a great short. you really need to be in the cat take center, collecting big data. >> for every reason why you like apple because of the tablet and why you don't like hugh let hack arrested becau hewlett-packard because of the tablet is a reason why you shouldn't like google and the motorola mobility and that cloud. >> true. >> and it may not affect people's earning, but you do wonder about distraction and some other things. >> i wonder what the patents are worth. we were talking this morning about how i keep coming -- we forget things so quickly. aol, was 18 and then 25. >> and just this will week, $1.1 billion from microsoft. are there a lot of stocks moving again on this whole patent
question? it all started back with the bankrupt company when they sold their ip for a lot people than people anticipated. >> i think what hurts is we don't thouhow to value. we don't have patent wars. we don't know what a judge will rule. and when i don't know an answer, you can't just guess. but i keep thinking motorola, there had to have been something that google saw. because the i will logic is so palpable. >> we're watching shares of nokia again down another 3.3%. a number of firms overnight lowering their price target. we had i think it was socgen actually cutting the sock dosto down to a hold. >> a helpful call. >> yeah, like that's from the the days -- >> old days of the million dollars 90s kate. ye
yes, virtually no help. it's also chinese competitors making phones competing at a price point they can't compete at. so when you get in here and you -- i mean, where do you go. >> you go into hiding. yesterday i was saying there ought to be some way to be able to throw a flag, some ref that says i've got to throw a flag, i can't have this continue. if you're nokia, please, i'm done. take my stock around. so i can think. i can't think because my stock goes down every minute. >> remember the heights this company had when it was the dominate -- >> if you worked for one of these companies, you come into work at the morning and you said the stock -- none of the ceos say look at the stock. they look at it every minute. >> it's on their computer. >> that's an ugly chart. >> they don't expect positive
cps until 2015. >> i think it will go the way of natural gas. two bucks. >> probably low two now. >> i have for go earn something. >> let's get over to bob pisani. >> what's up with the ipo mark? three out of five priced. is that good or bad? i'd say will this is pretty lu warm. let me give you some indication. the hot stock this morning, form energy, priced at $20, the high end of the price talk and they increased the shares. it's hooking like it will open around 22 1/2. so priced at 20. increased shares. opens at 3 2 2 1/2, the clear winner. but elsewhere, two companies did not make their ipos, aluminum maker postponed the ipo. and bryce source energy they withdrew the ipo.
that's a big difference between postpone and withdraw. withdraw means you essentially start all over again. so what's going on? the bottom line is some companies can neighboring because the prices are right and others are just not going to make it and it's the investors that are really in control right now. trying to price around $15. i was hearing that the prices investors wanted were somewhere around $11. that's not going to do it. not enough. the company simply withdrew. and another service company, waiting for that to open. oak tree also priced at 43, low end of the price talk. it's in the other room right now. let's me just mention china here, a lot of talk about whether or not we're at the bottom. shanghai index, down almost 2%. bank hit a 14 month high. waiting for the gdp numbers to come out, but a lot of people have 8.2, 8.3.
and what side of global growth are you on? 8% or below it, right now we're expecting about 8.3%. guys, back to you. and we're still waiting here for forum to open. looks like still 22 1/2 on forum. guys, back to you. >> still waiting on oak tree, as well. these alternative assess manager, i understand why they go public and howard marks is a very guy. but kkr,fortress, is there anyone you would recommend? >> no, you don't know what they own. you don't know what's in their portfolios. it's just a giant black box. if you're one of these brokers houses, you want to do something for these guys because then you want their ipos. oak tree is -- >> you want the ipo of their mort follow i don'ts. it's not a financial sponsor.
>> but how do you value their portfolio distressed. when i had my old hedge fund, it would be like the valuation is like 20 bid 40 offered. if i valued it at 40, i was doing great, valued at 20, i was doing bad. >> most of the big guys are out there in the alternative asset space. some of the big managers. >> i don't like these deals. but let's shift to bonds and the dollar. rick, take it away. >> look at this will bar chart of the last year with regard to the trade balance and you can see it's improved by in the neighborhood of 6 billion this morning. patty sent me a mote that barclaysgraded to 2.7.
because imports down and exports up, there is a possibility that that will indeed improve our numbers on gdp even though it might be seasonalities due to things like what steve liesman brought up, chinese and their new year and the flow of goods. in terms of interest rates, yeah, they haven't moved much. still a little above 2% in the ten year, but the day it take on initial claims did surprise the market with low treasury buying and low equity selling. jim, back to you. >> we are a bottom line here, split between the economies of the world and employment versus the earnings and the stock markets of the world. and that's one of the thing that's so hard. ann i hear that rick says that barclays says gdp could be up, wow, i think earnings could be better. that's what you have to focus on. let's which he can on ultimat ct moves in energy. >> nat gas right now is kind of stable. but i want to take a look at the oil complex first.
we've got wti nymex at about $103. number of analysts note nag it seems to have broken the downward trend. the inventory numbers at the 10:30 this morning. analysts look pentagon for 20 to 24 billion cubic feet injection. nat gas seems to be holding. 196 is the 2002 low that we need to look at. when you look at the june, july, august contracts, still well above two bucks. goldman sachs says time to start thinking about 2013. those are trading above three. but here in the options pit, i can tell you they are buying puts, that's to the down side, for 175. back to you. >> forum energy becomes public, high end, oil and natural gas player. hard to believe. >> we were talking about private equity. i do come back to future energy holdings. that's the old txu. energy future holdings.
excuse me. biggest of all time. >> what a disaster. >> and it bases electricity rates on nat gas pricing. that's ugly. but shares up nicely. >> tells me there's -- price things right, people will buy it. >> talk about pricing, shares of i wi illumina down about 4%. there's oak tree. look at that. it's opening also. >> down 5% after pricing at the low end of its range. >> where did it actually -- so it's already broken syndicate bit. >> 43. >> just terrible. expected to sell 11 pim11.3 mil so below expectations over level. >> deep sea is the one area
that's been holding out. i don't want to slam the stock. >> didn't want to give -- there it is. illumina, this ongoing takeover battle. roche has made a couple of offers. now at $51 a share. trading right around that, but down rather sharply this morning. we did get most recently a let frer roche as we head in to this weekend with some expectations that roche will make another try here. it's not going to win at the shareholder meeting on april 18th. that is more or less done with at this point. but the question is whether roche come back with a higher offer in fact intending to get due diligence, and then perhaps raise yet again. you may recall that illumina compared itself to apple. p like apple and the apple store, crowd roll of eager buyers has not been a problem for illumina and has not
projected any surge in revenue for any specific time period. but again, the key question here, what will shareholders accept. a week or two ago go, one of the largest shareholders sold most of its 10 million share position. they're hoping mid pif-50s to a higher. roche has patience, though. and people are also looking back at their former statements, whether it's genetec where they've said somewhere kinds of things and moved ahead to fairly significant increases and offers. they worry about competitors like life tech and there is
question about the pricing of these boxes. it's incredible what's going on and what we'll be able to do in just a handful of years walking with our dna on our ipads to the doctor's office. but there you go, the point being here roche has said similar hinge thisthings in the. >> coming up, sony ceo laying out plans to revise the company. you we turn back the clock. if you were to make a mixed tape, what song would you pick as season any "ony's anthem. a route map shows you where we go. but not how we get there. because in this business, there are no straight lines. only the twists and turns of an unpredictable industry.
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high end. opened at 22.50. that's holding up. mrc global, a little disappointment. oak tree opening at 41. melissa, over to you. >> if the shell spill is really bad, that forum wouldn't be trading so well. maybe the shell spill in the gulf is not that bad. >> let's hope not. they haven't even said it's them. >> it's a sheen. no oil leaking from the platforms. >> charlie sheen. >> not winning. >> turn back the clock, strap on your walk man. we ask you, if you could make a mixed tape to sony, what song would you pick as its new an help? thomas stwoo thom thom thomas tweets i get knocked
down, but i get up again. >> that was my theme song. >> jeff tweets i just died in your arms. cutting crew. >> why not hi don't know how it. and if i sang it, you wouldn't know what it was. patrick tweets walk this way. and nick tweets another one bites the dust. not bad. >> anything by kesha because i think she'll flame out. no long term future. >> does she is need to have a long term future? >> not really. >> that's business for you. that and the app business. >> the app business, yes. >> did you come up with your latest app? do you think i'll tell you? >> you were going to share your lottery winnings with me. >> he was? he wasn't going to share with me. >> you were here that day,
weren't you? >> you got to be here to win. >> he was going share with everybody. so if he developed an app, he might want to share that, too. >> think about it, we're tweeting, it's -- twitter's worth a huge amount and that's what apple should buy. facebook should have bought twitter. >> can to wit are mondwitter tu the way facebook did? >> one day. >> one day. hope and a dream will get to you a billion dollars. >> don't stop thinking about tomorrow. >> much more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. coming up, as the roller coaster of the market continues, there's one way you can remain calm. strap in with cramer and his six stocks in 60 seconds. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future.
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was there yesterday. simon hobbs is here today with a look at what is coming up on the next hour. >> did you know that google for android is actually now basically jumping up 850,000 an destroyed systems a day? we'll talk about google and exactly what's going on. we need to talk about natural gas, as well. a ten year low. that is great news for consumer, but how do you play it as an investor. and also the ceo of cantor to talk about the amazing push into markets. a very good hour of "squawk on the street." >> meantime time for six in 60.
hershey, credit suisse says to buy it. >> incredible run ever since restructuring. used to be levered with gasoline because they did a lot of screens store stuff. doing well. >> jcpenney price target cut at rb baird, firm seems limits the near term up side. >> you have to underpromise, not overpromise. >> chipotle getting a raise. >> growth stock series on my show. this has hyper growth. >> las vegas sands, taking off the key call list at ubs. >> i thought this company was unstoppab unstoppable. still goes higher. what a run. >> linkedin, 115 to 105. >> mad money i'm thinking about doing a series about who is going to be the winners. makes hone. >> and microsoft, the worth is over. >> seems that if people are saying let's by hp, the worst is over.
>> hp up and pc market share, they maintained number one and gained market share. 17.2% versus 16.9%. >> remarkable run. don't forget dell has to catch up. >> but in terms of the markets overall, alcoa also a nice run. strength in the financials. relative strength in some of the big cap. market feels okay. >> you and i were talking about the notion that the european banks aren't getting hammered off the italian bond auction. that gives the freedom to trade on earnings which is the key thing. bank earnings i think whether be befrn expected. >> so tonight mad money? >> yeah, growth stock investing is back. david and i tussle about with macro versus micro. growth versus no growth. that's what people are liking. >> we'll see you tonight. david. still to come on "squawk on the street," an exclusive look at facebook's future from inside
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let's get to the road map. google top on mind as they get ready to report earnings after the bell. will larry page finally pull the dividend trigger? and nat gas below $2 for the first time in ten years. and sony cutting 10,000 jobs. but is it too little too late. we have an analyst who is taking the other side sticking with this buy rating. and we will sit down with ceo sean math hughs to talk emerging markets and much more. >> eddie lambert cutting his stake again in autozone to 6.2% from 8.3. he previously held 23%. a raise of over 18% so far this
year. >> in a move to by pass the middle man, black rock would let money managers trade bonds directly with one another. completely skipping over wall street's big banks and the piece that they like to take out of it, very lucrative part of hair trading regimen. >> first it was friday's nonfarm payrolls. today initial jobless claims clocking in at 380,000. the krams were well above expectations of 355,000. initial claims for state unemployment increasing for the record buy 30,000. apparently it may have something to do with the timing of easter, so again we're back down to these seasonal discussions as we had with the employment report, did it pull forward employment in to january and february from march. and today again, claims that are elevated. >> reversing a trend that's been in place for some time. >> on the bright spot, if there is going to be a bright spot, the four week moving average remains at four year lows so
that's a positive. the other piece of today the take we got this morning, ppi coming in flat. core was a little hotter than expected. so that weighing on the markets. but overall, we're doing pretty well. >> the really depressing thing was janet yellen last night, laying out when you might get qe, said if the unemployment rate, and remember we're at 8.2% now, if the unemployment rate doesn't drop below 8% by the end of 2014, so 2 1/2 year, then maybe they would think about qe. but that was the scenario that she laid out. so that's what they clearly think about, that unemployment won't come down for 2 1/2 years. >> if. she said if. >> but it is the scenario they're contempt lating.
investors looking for guidance. it's been one year since larry page too took over as ceo. what can we expect. seen juror internet analyst at benchmark has a hold rating and 625 price target. always great to see you. 625 is -- we're at 643. so in 12 months you think the stock will go lower. what's your biggest concern here, is it motorola mobility, the inability to increase margins because of the shift to mobile? >> new york neither of knows things. it's really about the weakness in the european on online advertising market, which represents about 35 to 40% of google's revenue. this is really dragging down the overall growth and you referenced that larry page has been ceo for a year now. a year ago, they were growing revenue in the mid-30s. this quarter we're looking for
25% year over year growth. >> so you really have a big question about the core business. the core revenue driver at google. is it because of larry page? i mean, is this just an entry phenomenon, is it a google specific problem? >> it's really an industry issue, but the reason why google can't overcome it is that it already has 90% of the european search market share. so in the past when we've had cyclical down turns, google has been app away to overcome that by gaining shash. it really can't do that this this time. so we think europe will be a significant drag again will this quarter. >> for investor, seems that the one of the wisest things is watch what people as brilliant as zuckerberg are doing. i'm fascinated that he paid $1 billion for instragram which is a potential sharing app. it has 12 people. makes no revenue and is essentially a start up. had that gone to larry page at google, what difference would it have made to say google plus,
would it have been facebook two? >> what would intake gram ha in been for google? >> there is speculation that he fwout to keep google from buying it. >> i'm sure google took a hard look at it. i don't think it would have changed google's business in a meaningful way. of course they would have tried to integrate in general. but google is a 160, $170 billion enterprise value. this is a billion dollar deal. so wouldn't have moved the needle. would have been a nice technolo technology tuck-in. the one they could look to buy is pinterest which would integrate well into google plus. >> doesn't it indicate that these guys believe that there is some sort of technological
silver bullet that can transform them in a social networking age? for example, i read in contrast that they can activating in the region of 850 android mobile devices every day for which they're getting no credit virtually at all. >> i don't think they believe that's a silver bullet. some of these acquisitions are largely defensive as the entsb r internet virn environment is rapidly evolving. the bigger companies need to keep up and google has done a lot of smaller deals to bring in new technologies to keep them competitive to try to keep them at the forefront. and yet obviously facebook maybe is at the forefront now. so a lot of this stuff is defensive. >> let's get back to the quarter. for whatever reason, a lot of investors like to play it even in the after market, you look at the press release, try to figure some things out. larry page will say something on the call that completely reverses your direction.
what will you be looking at in the pages of the release and wl listening for on the call? >> actual numbers, of course. we're looking for 25% revenue growth, looking for about 9$9 9 $9.65 -- >> is there one metric people will be focused on more than any other? >> probably cost per click, although i don't agree with that measure. it was down and that caused agitation on the street. it will probably be down again this quarter. soo th so that would be the one metric that would stand out the most. >> so will take be a positive or negative if they keep spending money? >> that would an negative. i don't think they'll say that but the one thing we would look for is any commentary away a stock buy back or cash dividend. if they said something that even
remotely shows they're more inclined to do that, that could be positive because in the past, they've completely ignored that demand from shareholders and have had no desire to return capital to shareholders at all. >> what are the odds of them even alluding to the pact that they're open to the idea? >> i think it's pretty low still. i certainly don't think they'll initiate anything. i think the commentary will probably still be conservative and that they want to keep cash for a potential acquisitions and other flexibility. >> thanks so much for your time. >> thank you. >> google shares are up by 1.1% here ahead of the earnings release. and the options markets are pricing at a plus or minus 6.5% move on the news. so another big move here for google potentially. >> talking about big move, natural gas hitting a fresh ten year low yesterday down 33% this year. dropped below $2. so, yeah, of course, is that it, is that the bottom? we have your nat gas trade coming up next. zap technology.
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about 45 minute ngs to thes into the trading day, caterpillar is selling bucyrus, it bought it for $7.6 billion last year. bath bed and beyond down from hold to buy. the company could be vulnerable to market share losses. and rite aid reporting a narrower than expected loss in its fourth quarter. you see those shares still down. why we're talking about a buck 65 stock, not quite sure. >> natural gas settling below $2 before the close yesterday. levels not seen for over a decade. so are these prices here to say
and how do you play it as an investor? john woods is a trader with jj woods and associates. good morning to you. before we wring our hands, this is great news for consumers. >> oh, yeah. we're the good specs, pushing the market down along with the producers. and we are a 10 to 12 year lows. 187 1/2, 190 1/2, so back at historic levels. >> is it a bottom here? >> yes, it is. we could see that 180 mark, but off of that, we're just in a bounce back. the economic situation is definitely changed since back then. economy's a lot weaker now than it was then, so expect a little bit more of a selloff and then a bounce from there. >> do you believe that we're nearing or at a bottom because of the number of rigs have been reduced already and production cuts are as deep as they can go or is it predicated on the belief that that there will be further cuts to come? >> a combination before a lot
more production cuts, and also the rate count is also coming in. >> so how far on the futures curve do you go if you believe it marks some sort of a bottom some. >> right now we're trading roughly around $2. i could see a 15 cent selloff and then a significant bounce. if you look at charts from when we were at these lows, following month, you had a 40 cent rally. >> are the most people mauki im money on this? i imagine a large proportion is short here. >> you're not buying it unless you already sold it. so people are making money. look at a slow market moving its way down. >> good to see you, john. thank you for your time. >> at 10:30, we'll have the latest breaking headlines from the eia on natural gas inventories. >> always a crowd pleaser. still to come, facebook's ipo looming in the very near future. we have exclusive insight from
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strategy meeting in the hopes of launching new turn around plans. number one greatest hit back in 1976, the compact disk. number two, 1979, infamous walkman. number three in '85, the jumbotron. number 4 in '94, the play saying. and number five, in 2000, the blu-ray disk. >> what was the jumbotron? >> one of those big tvs. >> there was one in times square. >> of course overnight sonys has confirmed that 10,000 job cuts. basically unveiling how he will reshape season any o reseas reshape seasony for the future. jon fortt. >> saying sony is in crisis, but based on the plan, it's a mini
crisis. he says the entertainment and financial divisions are fine. electronics business is the problem. they're laying off or spinning off 10,000 workers. that's 6% of the workforce. percentage-wise, that's half as many as cisco laid off last year. are sony's problems less serious than cisco's were? that's debatesable. second, he'll turn away the tv business. part of that is getting out of the joint business with samsung. third focus on gaming, imaging and mobile, but mobile includes laptops and imaging includes the range of consumer and professional cameras. acknowledges sony can hold share and stay profitable. everything not part of these core areas is subject to getting cut, so maybe no more sony alarm clocks. and finally sony will invest in medical device businesses. when they're behind in, trying
to turn around tvs or core camera and gaming businesses. he didn't give a specific time line. so if you believe sony's problem is just execution, this will sounds like a plan. it's a light version of cisco's reorg. but you might be skeptical. >> you talked about laying off or spinning off a certain number of apply eemployees. is there a thought that there could be a structure all change? >> yeah, hirai said these aren't all layoffs. they're looking to possibly give -- spin these businesses to other people and try to preserve those jobs. so they're not actually just letting all these people go. he was very specific about that. sounding in some ways like the kind of traditional take that sony has had in the japanese economy of really wanting to take care of workers. >> all right, jon, thank you very much for the moment. >> let's get more insight now on sony's turnaround efforts.
daniel ernst has a buy rating on sony. what did you you hear that interested or perhaps should be a focus for investors from here? >> jon made excellent points about is this an aggressive enough restructuring plan to get them where they need to go. what n. a lot of ways what hirai laid out is very similar to what sir howard laid out back in fiscal '04, reducing costs, getting rid of noncore assets, focussing on leading areas like mobile in this case. and so i think that's a sound plan. and in reality, sir howard actually hit the goals of his original plan back in '04 when they achieved 5% operating margin from negative and that's the same 5% goal that hirai is trying to get to for fiscal '14.
as they went from negative operating margin to 5% operating margin, the stock nearly tripled. >> except that we're back where we started. it's like groundhog day. that's not real progress, is it? >> i think hirai has a harder road or steeper hill in front of him than sir howard had. when sir howard had it, hdtv market was just taking off .game market was on an ascendant cycle. and the yen was heading towards an historical low. which really helped them overseas. back at the peak of hd chlttv c the euro commanded 1160 yen. today it's 106. so in a lot of ways h will irai
has a more difficult job than howard had. >> that said,will irai has a more difficult job than howard had. >> that said,ill irai has a more difficult job than howard had. >> that said,ll irai has a more difficult job than howard had. >> that said, irai has a more difficult job than howard had. >> that said, irai has a more difficult job than howard had. >> that said,irai has a more difficult job than howard had. >> that said, tv business has lost money eight years. they're going to increase the quality of bravia to try to sell more of them. how much is a wild card is coming in the fourth quarter here? i appreciate that it is potential competition, but could it be a positive in the extent that it could actually ignite a new product cycle that presumably sony could ride the tail coats of if they could mimic whatever new developments apple comes up with? >> it's not just the potential threat of apple tv. what apple has wrought upon the entire asia electronics chain from taking over the phone business with smart phones, reinventing the computer with the ipad, these are all things, these are all hit products.
product categories. that sony and none of the other japanese electronics manufacturers are anywhere near touching. i think season any has a much more significant chance of getting that than a sharp or toe s toshiba or panasonic. so apple tv is an absolute threat to sony. but it's not as if the ipad and iphone haven't been other things that have eaten in to where sony used to have dom mainance. >> it does seem like a story line in which an activist investor would emerge. is there a reason why nobody has played that role, is there a structural reason why that might not happen? >> two things. one is back. '04/05 period, there was a lot of scrutiny on the organization, a lot of people wanted him to
spin off the content business, no one's evernd stood really what the finance arm, which is arlt part of sony that only exists in japan, it's primarily life insurance. it's actually a very profitable business for sony. has a great brand name in japan. so they spun off 40% of that business, raised significant amount of cash into sony and you have a separate equity value and i think that helped. at the moment, we're in the hearing as much structural pressure, but to your point in japan, activists investing is not really a strategy that works. i think there's a lot of legal issues in japan. john mentioned they'll layoff more people. unfortunately or fortunately for japanese employment, there's afternoon greater social contract with the corporations in japan. >> daniel, thanks for your time.
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we had a slight reduction in production of about 3 billion cubic feet, but take a look nat gas today. while the trend clearly to the down side, you can get caught short here and the shorts today definitely getting squeezed. we are now at $2.05 and climbing after having started the day around the $1.98 range. take a look at wti nymex crude. right now eyeing $104. overall the whole market move lifting the entire energy complex. >> one hour into trading, here are the stories we're squawking about. the coast guard has dispatched a helicopter to check reports of a 10 mile oil sheen spotted near gulf oil platforms operated by shell oil. full report expected later on today. the indianapolis star tribune
reporting best buy board of directors are looking in to complaints brian dunn may have used company resources to carry out an inappropriate relationship with a female employee. j.k. rowling unveiling the name of her next book, the casual vacancy will be her first book for adults. the book will be set in english town and available worldwide on september 27th. sounds like something that simon hobbs would greatly enjoy reading. >> yes, maybe. this is where we are on the markets. materials are doing well. energy stocks as we heard from bertha there, and himself talso industrials lifting us higher today. 4:1 -- 3:1. and over at the nasdaq, 2:1. yay. now one hour into trade. let's get to chicago for more on the markets.
richard, life at the cme, what are you watching? >> let's take a look at gold. i septemb sent notes this morning to leslie and gave you an indication that gold was flat. but a big stock being elected, 30,000 contracts in gold for roughly 1658 to new highs 1672. this could get the bulls in control. let's see how the market closes. that give wlent is 3 million ounces of gold. so that's one story i'm watching. i think this is a low risk trade to get in against the low of 1600. i think you could see a retrace to the 200 day moving average. this will could be a good play. i'm also watching nat gas break two cents. >> boone pickens thinks this could be a bottom in natural gas. do you? >> forget the $2. to get the $1.96.
let's talk about the break even point for producers of nat gas which is around 1.55. some guys are saying 1.20, 1.30. that's lower than where we're at. i think that's the boot. you also have a lot of open interest in puts. take a look at the may, june, you see a lot of open support at the 170. 75, 180 point in the puts. that will give and you floor, as well. i think it's relatively low risk against those levels, but the price to watch is 155. >> the thing where he ought to mention underpinning a lot of what we've seen on the screen over the last seven or eight minutes is this substantially lower dollar and the australian dollar is absolutely rocking higher on the session up 1.3% alone. where do we go from the dollar, is this about the dollar continuing to fall, the possibility perhaps of further qe from the fed given what yellen said last night? >> i think the market is
definitely cuing off yellen, but i think the jury is out. at some point we'll have to stop the qe buzz, period. and i think that happens this year. there you see the dollar strength commodities weaken. but the temperature today seems to be risk on. >> we'll leave it there. thank you, richard. >> cantor fitzgerald announcing the appointment to two senior executives and building out their emerging market business saying they seem comprehend opportunity in the next several years. joining us to discuss is the ceo of cantor fitzgerald, shawn matthews. when you say aggressively and tremendous opportunity, you can quantify those things? >> certainly when you look at the opportunity that's out there for our firm, we think we can continue oto grow our franchise and gain share in a host of market and emerging markets is probably the most exciting.
>> you can give us an idea of how the mix of your business will change? >> i think over the next five years we'll probably have 40% to 50% will be towards emerging markets. so it will be one where we think we'll be getting market share as the financial services landscape changes. >> you're not the first to say you see an opportunity in emerging markets. are you hiring people locally, are you bringing people over? it is a different skill set. >> we're actually looking to be at a local currency level in as been places as we can be. so wee'll be adding people on te ground in foreign countries. we'll hire people both here as well as on the the ground. >> i can understand why you would want to sell emerging market products to americans. that's obvious. but as the sophistication of these markets grows and the financial markets get bigger, isn't it going to be the local
knowledge, those that are immersed in the local area, those that have the local language, isn't there sophistication going to rise air rise in the danger and is those that come from abroad actually become cannon fodder, they become behind the gate? that's happened time and time again. >> certainly when you look at the emerging markets urks they have grown tremendously over the last few years. we anticipate them continuing to grow aggressively. and there will be a scenario where people want to work in different asset classes as well as the pension funds -- >> that's not what i'm asking. what i'm asking is whether you have a natural disadvantage because you are a nonbrazilian firm or a nonchinese firm. that's the point i'm making. >> i think we'll be on the ground in those areas. so we'll have a local currency presence. like any country or any business, he'll have to be on the ground at some level, but we'll also have the ability to tie all those countries together
and create a unique platform that allows us to offer relative value concepts to our customer base. >> in term of your build out, when you take it a look at emerging markets, it covers a lot of countries. so tell us where you're concentrating your buildout because it does sound like to some extent you're in a race and you have to get this done quickly to capture the market opportunity right now. so where is the greatest opportunity? >> certainly we're building out our new york presence and our london presence. but we're also going to be looking at doing a roll up strategy and broker dealers in many different countries in the next few months, probably buy two different broker dealers. and we'll look to continue to add smaller acquisitions that allow us to be on the ground an be competitive. >> let's move back to in market, the big market. we're at 2% on the ten year, close to it again. prices having moved up lately. we got a junk market that's been on fire. too many issuers, not enough buyers. give me your feeling on fixed income.
>> i think the if fixed income mark market, we'll be in the range for the next year or so. everyone has the carry trade on. people love carry. and we're still going to have the risk on risk off mentality. so high yield has been on fire as you said because it actually offers a 7% or 8% return which is very attractive in a zero interest rate environment. >> and you expect that will continue for the remain dir of this year? >> i don't think you'll see the gains you saw in high yield over the last year this year, but you will still see high yield being strong, you'll see people want to participate putting money to work. and looking at the fixed income complex, people want to have their money in fixed income assets because it they believe it's safer. >> europe yeared i e reared uts again it this year. what about europe, how important is it and what's the impact of
it coming back to the fore? >> it's very important and i think europe will be the story for the next year or so as they figure out how they'll unwind the mess that they're in. so europe will be a risk on risk off raid which will be the tail wagging the dog and you'll see risk assets go up and down based on what's going on in europe the next year. >> shawn, thanks so much for your time. we do want to point out speaking of the big markets, we're up triple digits on the dow. pretty much at session highs. tremendous strength when it comes to financials. xlf up by about 0.9%, but bank of america up 1.7%. more dwan stagan stanley up 2%. materials off the data overnight in china. also expecting gdp data tonight out of china. so a lot of materials names doing quite nicely in today's session along with big cap technology stocks like microsoft which is up by almost 2% here.
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target. >> gold is easing for a second day in a row. but as you see, still up on the week set for its largest gain in six weeks due to the reemergence of, yes, you've heard it the eurozone crisis. that does have some people running back to the metal. john hathaway is an expert on gold and gold related equities and joins us here. nice to have you with us. like to start off with the mining companies. some love to go into those names and yet say they don't perform as well as you might expect given what has been a bull market longer term for the underlying metal. why not and when will it change? >> for the last 18 months, they've underperformed the metal and that's been disappointing. it's not the first time it's happened. there are times when they underperform and outperform. but this has been pretty extreme, so i'd say the stocks are as cheap as i've seen. >> and what is the cause? >> i think the big thing is
people don't believe the gold price is sustainable at these levels. you had a spike last august up to 1900. a lot of hysteria, a lot of knee jerk buying. and i think you would say that's probably has to be tested with some sort of correction which we've now seen. and my view is that once people believe the gold price is sustainable in the 1600, 1700 area, you'll get a revaluation of the gold stocks. >> but to be clear on this, despite all the hype, your gold fund as lost 17%. and it would be more if you'd actually taken in the redemption fears people came out potentially. so this has been from your point of view as an expert in gold a very bad place to be for the last 12 months. >> last ten years as been better than anything, but -- >> what's the return over ten years? >> it's been about -- 700 basis points better than the gold price, which has tripled over the last ten years.
>> about 19%. >> yeah, 19%. >> versus the s&p, which is up 4% versus the philadelphia gold still remember. >> so the point i'm trying to make is there are periods when it clearly doesn't work. and the points that you made at the beginning. that's what a lot of people investing in gold don't realize, it is potentially dangerous at points in the cycle. >> probably just as dangerous as treasuries. >> indeed. >> what as been a key driver in your view to making the environment so difficult, is it that -- at one point it was a flight to safety, but now it's corrolatesed with u.s. equities more recently. so it's a very difficult environment. >> well, when you have a move like gold has had over the last ten years especially when you had the move that you had last year over the debt ceiling debate, should you have a correction and that's what we've had. we're a long only fund. we give exposure to the gold sector. our belief is that gold is headed higher. i think we're headed into a new more dynamic phase.
i think this correction was very healthy. and i think we're in a bottoming phase and i think gold and stocks are about to take off. >> why would you have a new more dynamic phase, what would drive that? >> i think we'll have if you believe hat fed's work is done, i've got a bridge to sell you. i don't believe that at all. forex accumulation has slowed down dramatically which means china is not buying. they're selling our treasuries. the fed bought 61% of treasury reiss reissueance last year. and if they don't this year, the rates will go higher. >> let's end on the mining companies. i know a lot of people have questions. you mentioned the underperformance given the megtss perfomegts metals performance. i know you're bullish on the mining companies over the next year. >> i think it will take a higher gold price. and -- >> for a sustainable period of time? >> you have to be able to
normalize 1600, 1700 dollars. once we go above that, once you have with gold stocks which you don't have with the metal itself, gld, for example, is an embedded coal on the gold price. so you have a very cheap coal. numont mining, cost of producing is $900. so you're buying a long duration coal on the price of gold very cheaply. >> and you expect that that divergence will disappear. >> so i think you'll see gold stocks outperform gold in the next 12 months. >> what about the gld? was paulson selling last year one of the reasons why it came down so sharply? >> i don't think gld moves the market. >> you don't. >> no. >> all right, john, thank you very much. >> let's get back to the markets and check where we are. materials still doing very well. that sector up 2%. united states steel coal up 4%, commodities also bounced because
importantly this lower dollar that we're experiencing and we'll come back to that throughout the program. let's have a quick look on the the financials and see what's happening there. they, too, are showing well. of course we kick off we kick off on friday when financial stock reporting and a big day for all concerned. >> all right. straight ahead this morning, exclusive interview with home depot ceo frank blake. we'll talk about the business of home improvement. first, rick santelli, what are you working on for the next hour on "squawk on the street"? >> we're talking to the boys to see exactly what we're working on. this is a fluid process. i think we'll talk a little bit about the similarities and differences between europe and the u.s. we'll talk about the trade balance. there's some interesting points about how it could help gdp. there are issues beyond that that may not be positive and the last one is one of my favorites. the acting director of the fhfa with interesting views about principle forgiveness. all of that at the top of the hour.
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what the fed will do next? steve liesman has been listening to janet yellen who came out last night looking for a number of speakers today, steve, yeah? >> i want to talk about the economic data. big debate about that moving markets today. claims that 380 up 13,000. question was what kind of jobs data would we get after the soft jobs report last week? trade coming in minus 46 billion more than expected by economist. core ppi was higher. i want to give you until sanaly the data out there. claims were watched for signs of softening and there's a big
holiday effect being good friday as well. trade could bring that gdp number up as high as 2.7% or 3% for the first quarter. also on tap today the philly fed at 12:30 speaking. there's janet yellen and bill dudley who spoke this morning. bottom line there is both are saying essentially that they will do more if the economy worsens. i did not hear additional qe. more fed on tap today. back to you. >> all right. thank you very much, steve. >> all right. sony ceo laying out plans to revive a struggling company cutting 10,000 jobs moving away from unprofitable tv business bringing us to this morning's squawk on the tweet. you can make a mixed tape for sony, what song would you make for its new anthem? we have your responses straight ahead. ♪
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your walkman. this morning we're asking you if you could make a mixed tape for sony, what song would you pick as sony's new anthem? francis tweets the line from mama said knock you out. and sony song "someone i used to know." and what doesn't kill you makes you stronger by kelly clarkson. humiliation of having to read this. >> can you do it one more time. it was so funny. highlight of the whole show. meantime, rally under way to the markets. we're off session highs but we see nice strength across the board. look at shares of starbucks. this is one that's been on a tear today setting a fresh 52-week high on the session. now trading up by 1.5%. we should note that nat gas is
trading higher today. coal names trading higher up by 2.8%. short interest on coal has been growing over the past month. don't know if this is a squeeze or a bit higher. it is higher across the board. >> silver is having a good day. what is coming up on "fast money" tonight. >> we have the ceo of irobot. they are sending robots to clean up natural disasters and why health care may be the next bubble. that's all tonight at 5:00. all right. coming up, an exclusive look inside the road trip. this is what you might have missed if you are just tuning in. >> welcome to hour three of "squawk on the street." here's what's happening so far. >> when you think about trying to find the next short, if you will, what are you looking for? >> valuation is probably the least important determinant when we look at ideas on the short side. we're looking for flawed
businesses, looking for flawed account, technological changes. >> we're not forecasting a recession or global showdown. we're forecasting normal economic growth. slow growth but avoiding a recession. >> jobless claims job from 367 originally released to 357 to 380,000. >> i find it confusing. i find it difficult to try to figure out what to pay for google's earnings. i don't know what the future is for google because i have no visibility whatsoever for this business. >> i have been so negative on coal. maybe i have to reign it in. i don't like situations where someone reports a number that's not good and the stock goes higher. it does feel like that with coal names. >> we have the opening bell. >> in the past when we've had cyclical downturns, google has been able to overcome that by gaining share. they can't do that this time. we think europe will be a significant drag again this
quarter. >> i think over the next five years we'll probably add 40% to 50% of our revenue toward emerging markets. it's one where we'll get market share as the financial services landscape changes. >> good thursday morning. markets surging again for the second day in a row dow having its best two-day gain now since the middle of march. checking in on major indices, the dow below 12,940 up 128 points. s&p back to 1,382 and nasdaq at 30.50. starbucks riding the wave of green. oak tree capital falling more than 3% in the first day of trading priced at $43 a share at the low end of the range now trading below $42. let's get to road map today. brand new data from the department of transportation on airlines coming out a few moments ago. we'll find out which carriers log the most delays, lost the most luggage and generally left
passengers in a bad mood. ceo of eli lilly will join us. plus home depot ceo frank blake to tell us what's next for the home improvement retailer and how he plans to keep building on the company's success. and gun sales are booming in this country. whether it is for protection or recreation, the firearms business getting more and more profitable. we'll go live to a shooting range in virginia to find out why. all of that and a lot more is coming up in the next hour. first, our capital markets editor gary kaminsky has a look about the facebook ipo road show. we should explain exactly what you're going to present right now. >> it's fascinating stuff. in all years this was one of the most interesting things that i got a chance to look at. let's explain to people about the road show. they hear about road shows. they know it will come up facebook in mid may. it prohibits a company from
giving forward looking statement. they can't give a business plan. they can talk about growth opportunities but institutional investors, biggest hedge funds in the world know they won't get anything that hasn't already been disclosed. the road show is a performance. it's a performance to hit the road and in the case of facebook i'll tell you right now they don't need to go on a road show. they can sell the deal tomorrow and one-hour internet presentation and call it a day. they will do a road show. what we are going to talk about right now is the kind of stuff that facebook would tell people if they could. the reason we are able to do this is because the hedge funds as i mentioned, greatest hedge funds in the world, will talk to industry insiders and talk to experts and consultant to try to formulate what is the real plan here whether that's a company that's a couple hundred million dollar market cap or company like facebook. facebook ipo pitch that we'll get to as how you as a viewer
will take a look at it. it was put together by somebody who wants to remain unanimous. wants to remain unanimous given he has relationships with facebook and google. i have spoken to him. he is legitimate. this is a person that knows the business. i had my moment understanding after the conversation of what facebook's long-term strategy is. this is very simple. google is in the eyes of facebook. goi we won't talk about anything related to google right now. let's look at something larry page told his shareholders in a letter that a lot of people in the media and analysts focussed on last week. let's talk about the concerns that he has. you can take a look at that. it's basically the next generation. understanding identity and relationships can also help us improve search. most search results are generic. two strangers sitting next to each other in a cafe will get very similar answers but everyone's life experiences are
unique. this is larry page speaking. what does this mean? this talks about the difference between getting searches that are links opposed to search that are likes. google is very concerned. facebook coming public at 100. google is concerned. what are they concerned about with facebook being public? five reasons. facebook is more powerful. the secret will then be out in terms of head to head search that the facebook experience is a better experience. google's primary product has an inherit flaw and facebook's social search engine is a better mechanism for getting what you need on the internet. google doesn't have data with users that facebook has. in a situation like this, you will get bold predictions. the bold prediction is interesting. this is what you will hear and you will look at if you check this out. microsoft has a plan here and
the plan is that microsoft will put bing in the hands of facebook after facebook goes public. they'll take more facebook shares. this is an important thing here. the idea that microsoft has been funding losses at bing, microsoft shareholders want to know what's the long-term plan. we'll see if this comes to fruition. clearly very interesting. if you could attend one of these meetings, this is what you would be told. this is the pitch on facebook that you're not going to hear. you'll hear it here. the more i know about you, the better i can serve you. the more i know about you, the more relevant and targeted ads can be. the better the ads are, the less they will feel like ads and they will feel like a service to you as the user. the more you click and buy, the better returns for advertisers. i understand that with return investor in capital for those on facebook. now i get it. higher the bid for facebook ads, the more money facebook makes. we could go through a lot of
this. this was the breest we can't sh on tv. advice from zuckerberg. do what you have to do. it's very interesting stuff. it's a unique perspective. the person that put it together has made this available for you, the retail investor, if you want to look at it. we'll provide the link so you can look at this. this is the biggest hedge funds in the world pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for this type of information. >> the first question is why is he putting it out there essentially for free rather than selling it to a hedge fund for a lot of money? >> that's a good question. i believe -- this is my opinion. this is one of those individuals who feels that they see the future, they want to come back six months from now and say we told you so. this is exactly what facebook's plan was and much like google had a plan ten years ago of what they were going to do vis-a-vis yahoo! and it came to fruition, he wants to basically say i told you this was the facebook plan. facebook was about google and
it's about becoming the major place in the world for search. a new kind of search. >> if facebook means you never have to go to google to search, what does that mean for google, which reports earnings tonight? >> you know what? he pointed out what larry page, the ceo of google has said in his letter to shareholders. if you are on that google conference call tonight, ask what did you mean there? what does it mean in terms of your thoughts here? what is the competitive threat? the question will be out there now because this is out in the public domain, a lot of people have seen it this morning, what happens if in fact microsoft aligns themselves directly with facebook in this bing transaction? >> the way he talks makes it -- they clearly see the threat coming. >> they see the threat. it's a huge difference. i didn't get it. i now understand what the difference is between likes and links. >> great stuff. we'll talk a lot more about it obviously. >> again, i feel really proud that we're able to have brought
this to the viewers who in many cases felt they have a disadvantage to the institutional investor. if you own google, we're not telling you what to do with google stock. pay attention to this. take a look at it. this is what's out there over the next five weeks. >> thank you very much. want to mention as well that we reached out to facebook themselves. they declined to comment on any of this or any part of that story. hop to cme group this morning and check in with rick santelli who apparently, rick, i was working somewhere else but i hear your rant was epic and is being written up all over the place. >> i don't know if it's epic or written up all over the place. i just know that i have some pretty strong passions regarding things like close to 16 trillion in debt. i think these issues have to be talked about. this is an election year.
it's importa as important as peripheral issues are, this needs to be discussed. one thing i find big that we'll switch gears from balance sheet to kind of trade deficit, this morning i thought it was good news that we ended up with a trade deficit that was around 6 billion less than we expected. there's two ways to look at it. all of the major bankers out there and research groups are saying this could increase first quarter gdp by 0.3 to 0.5. they are right. there may be a demand side to this that might give us a view of a slowness. it could go either way. the next issue is europe versus the u.s. many of my sources here are never happy in a good way. if we talk about europe, europe's problems are in the same book as u.s. problems. the only difference is what
chapter you're in. the u.s., you know, they have their issues. when you have a world that's washed in liquidity trying to combat insolvency, there are certain markets like u.s. that are perceived as good. that liquidity slashing will go somewhere. equities has been where it's going. but back to that deficit, back to debt, these are shared denominators at different forms of the time line that are not good. we share it with europe as well. last but not least, ed dimarco, acting director, is being pressured for loan forgiveness. he's holding his ground saying strategic defaults present a problem. my opinion, why aren't more politicians talking about if they are in conservativeship, privatize. >> we'll talk to you in a bit.
take a look at the dow. close to session highs up 145. the market anticipating a better gdp print from china tonight if you believe rumors that float in some circles. it's interesting when we get ahold of that data come opening bell time tomorrow. a few days ago eli lilly got the green light from u.s. regulators to a brain imaging test. it's designed to help doctors detect brain plaque tied to alzheimer's disease. more expirations lie ahead including a drug used to treat depression. what's in the company's pipeline to boost profits, we have john
here with us. congratulations on the new title. >> thanks, carl. >> streets have been gnashing their teeth for a while. where do you think they are in getting your message about the degree to which alzheimer's treatments offset some of these patent expirations? >> carl, we've seen these patent expirations coming for some time. that's why earlier last decade we began to invest in the kind of research that today has enabled us to generate a phase three pipeline with 12 molecules and i believe soon to be 13 in phase three testing so as we launch these products we hope obviously to offset the declines that will be attributable to the patent expirations as you point out. >> we think results are mostly going to be q-4 phenomenon? >> i'm sorry? could you say that again? >> i was asking, do you think results will be a q-4 phenome n
phenomenon? are you having trouble hearing me? >> yeah, i am. >> i'll try again. maybe we can talk a bit about the imaging test which obviously the fda approved on friday. how do you see that test changing the standard of care for alzheimer's in this country? >> well, we're pleased to see the approval by the fda on friday. this is a radioactive diagnostic agent that will be used to help determine the presence or absence of these plaques in the brains for people who show cognitive decline in order to help physicians determine whether that is potentially alzheimer's or some other condition. certainly it's a breakthrough in terms of representing a new approach to being able to visualize these plaques which up until now we've really only been
able to determine through an autopsy on someone who is suspected of having alzheimer's disease. we think it will be a valuable addition and we hope that over time we're also able to develop new therapeutic agents so we can intervene in the disease. >> how confident are you that medicare, medicaid services are going to cover that test? >> well, we're working hard -- working diligently to work with the cms and a number of other constituents all of who have an interest in this to see that reimbursement rules are able to accommodate ultimately. >> john, appreciate your time as always catching us on a busy market day. glad we got you on. >> thanks, carl. when we come back, an exclusive interview with the ceo of home depot. frank blake. we'll see what he thinks about the economy, the consumer and a
lot more and then we'll count you down to the close in europe just a little over ten minutes to go. we'll be right back. what the world wants to know and share is here. demand media expands on the big board. (sfx: car garage sounds) today my journey brings me to charlotte, north carolina, where i spent the day with geico driver casey mears. i told him the secret to saving money on car insurance. he told me the secret to his car setup. first he adjusts...
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retail giants from around the globe gathering in tucson, arizona. our michelle caruso-cabrera is live with a cnbc exclusive. hi, michelle. >> reporter: hey there, carl. the ceo of macy's and why is the conference in arizona? because he went to the university of arizona and because of who he is, he can emass ceos all over the world. powerful individuals to talk about the state of retailing not just in the u.s. but all over the globe. one of the biggest names he has here is frank blake, ceo of home depot.
2,000 stores across the united states. it's always great to talk to frank blake about what is going on in the economy and with housing et cetera. one of my first questions to him is we've got an lot of economic data that suggested the economy was improving and then we got march employment numbers. what in his view is the state of the economy? >> our businesses are seasonal. we had a strong fourth quarter. strongest fourth quarter since back when housing bubble was going. but that was driven a lot by weather. we're seeing a continuation of nice warm weather in a lot of the country as we go into our first quarter. it's going to be a little difficult for us to get a good gauge on the consumer until we kind of normalize the weather impacts through the year. >> you are wondering the same question that everybody else in retail is whether strong numbers are pulled forward or something real? >> exactly right. you know some of it is a pull forward. someone who is buying a lawn
mower in february or march isn't going to go out and buy another lawn mower in april or may. some of it may actually be creative so you do more fertilizing than if the weather was bad. exactly where that tradeoff is, we need to wait through the whole season to know and get a better sense of it. >> what about housing? you have so many metrics that tell you about the state of housing. we have gotten better housing data. a lot of people are excited about it. the pro, which is a huge part of your business, also big ticket items are usually indicators of what's going on with housing. what's happening there? >> for us, it is about 35% of our business. in the downturn in 2008 and 2009 in particular, pro was off double digit for us. significantly worse than our consumer. what we have seen recently is the pro coming back about the same sort of increase as the consumer. and within the pro segments, the
larger pros seem to be doing better than smaller pros which would make sense in terms of a recovery process. >> that sounds tepid. >> there is still a lot of caution. it is great to see -- i read warren buffett's shareholder letter and jamie dimon's shareholder letter and you have a lot of smart people saying the housing market is at least to the floor but there is still headwinds for it. we're not seeing nor or we planning for yet a housing market that has a strong recovery. >> of course you can't come to the conference without interviewing terry. we'll interview him live on "power lunch" coming up later on cnbc. 2:00 p.m. stre"street signs," w do more with frank blake. he made me excited about light bulbs. we'll see transformations in light bulbs not dictated by the government but by ingenuity and innovation.
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traders, the new york offices of being evacuated not because of a fire. the reason they are giving is unclear actually. the new york offices are in the world financial center number two in downtown lower manhattan. as we get more information on that, we'll get it right to you. we'll get the european close which the bells may be ringing right about now. >> the bells are upon us. >> the european markets are closing now. >> a powerful rally we have seen come through towards the end of the session. let's go to the map and have a look at where we are around europe. trade data in the united states and fact that you have record exports has helped. the talk you might get are better than expected gdp figure out of china has also helped boost the european markets. of course you have dudley raising prospects of more qe coming forward. okay. let's do the session charts and see where we are. i will show you the way in which we came back. we were in negative territory and managed to climb our way back during the course of the session. spain was down about 1.5%.
still red at the close. not as bad as we were. greece is obviously a key issue as we have an election date there. let's come back to the board and just run through the markets and close that we have. they have done well. banks have done well during the course of the session today. the yields came down on the french and german debt. we have of course spanish still trying to ensure that he can get the regions into better fiscal situations. comments between spanish and italians. spanish saying stop dissing us on where we are with austerity. very interesting comment from deutsche bank overnight that italian banks have more hedge
room to support the local bond market. there were concerns about today's bond auction. >> the benchmark three three paying more than 100 basis points. >> interestingly the italian finance minister said they didn't allocate all of the paper today because they didn't need to refinance at an unfavorable level which caused raised eyebrows around europe. >> thank you very much. rally in europe probably the big story to watch. meantime, our capital markets editor gary ckaminsky up next t talk black rock. >> in terms of the bond market, we talk about bonds a lot at 11:30 given european close. news out today a "wall street journal" piece that black rock which is something they have been talking about in my mind about this idea of bond trading and launching their own virtual exchange and that's happening in the equity markets over the years. here's the question. it's real simple. it makes sense on paper if you
can basically compress spreads and make the trading of bonds more efficient, that's great. my question is, are you going to get the other institutions in a sense to trade the bonds and compete directly with black rock to go on a platform like that. that's always been the question. if you are pimco or federated, are you going to move some of your bond trading away from goldman sachs or morgan stanley at jpmorgan, bank of america, which may be more cost efficient for you and you could pass those cost savings onto your clients and those on your funds. in fact, you will go through a platform that is essentially being run by one of your direct competitors. >> let me ask you about this big report about asset allocation trade that happened partly yesterday and part of today. is it tied to this china rumor about gdp being hotter than people otherwise thought. do you think it's responsible for action we are seeing today? >> this china stuff, you know, now there's some interpretation
of what came out of china wasn't there. i don't know. you know what i'm looking at here? when we were together here on tuesday, i referenced that although the equity markets were having a very poor morning and subsequently had a poor afternoon, i said look at high yield index which i did at this time. if you can bring up in your control room the five-day chart, you know there was no followthrough really in high yield credit markets from what we saw in equity markets so perhaps there was a bit of maybe we call it window undressing that took place earlier this week and we were sort of coming right back. you see there was no confirmation in terms of what i like to look at on tuesday and there you see we're right back where we were if we took that back to last week. again, look at that. when you see equity markets moving one way or another in a big direction, look at that atf. it's a great sign of either confirmation or no confirmation. >> thanks very much. bob pisani has joined us. >> in great summer suit. >> looking lovely. >> a little early.
remember the look back in the late '90s. you were here for that one. regis made that famous and destroyed it later on. thank you for that. we're trying to revive it a bit. >> you look marvelous. >> early maybe but we'll see what we can do with it. ipos i was excited last night. five ipos pricing. it was a disappointment. not sure how much we can say about it. maybe this week's crop wasn't that exciting. only three priced. of the two of the three priced at the low end and two opened below the low end of expectations. here's the clear winner on the day. this is an oil field services energy company. price at $20 high end of the range. trading at 22 and open right around there to open at 22.50. that's the winner. another oil field services company didn't fare quite as well here. you can see that here. they priced at $21.
opened at $20.50 and are trading around there at $21. let's call that fair. oak tree, which is of course a money management company, priced at $43. they opened at 41. slowly climbing up. this moment as we sit here, $42. what do we have this week? aluminum company that didn't make it to market. money manage company, oil services company, next week though a different crop. that's why i'm not saying ipos are dead or anything like that. that's not really the case. i'm more optimistic here. let me show you full screen of what's going on for next week. tech companies pushing in on this. let me show you what's going on. here you have a cloud computing company. next generation data centers is hot. proof point. data protection. hot space to protect against attacks on corporate infrastructure.
these are three really hot areas. my point is next week we could have a different ipo market. that's the key thing. by the way, guys, simon was just pointing to the better than expected numbers that we got on the u.s. trade data. the street is raising numbers on gdp estimates as a result of this. i am hearing jpmorgan just raised first quarter gdp estimates from 2.5% to 2%. traders telling me that as i come down on the floor. the stuff you had on what was going on with facebook, it's fantastic. how the new generation of ads are coming in. there's a whole new company coming out trying to do that. it scares the daylights out of me. i don't want to give up information. i look at my google calendar for the last five years. what it says about me is amazing. >> good or bad way? >> it would be interesting marketing information if you had that. >> that's the point there. >> thanks, bob.
rick santelli is in chicago with a guest. good morning, rick. >> absolutely. i love having our own accountant here, don't you, carl? welcome back. now, bill, i know you have a table you want to talk about. let's throw up the table. tell us what you see on it that we should be aware of. >> what this table shows is top 1% pays close to 40%. the top 5% close to 60% and bottom line is top half pays 50% of the taxes. look at the guy next to you. he's probably not paying taxes. >> that only federal taxes? >> that is federal taxes. >> there has been an ongoing debate that we saw on "street signs" yesterday and that is payroll taxes. there are a lot of people and i'm sure statistics is just below 50% that don't pay federal taxes. how do you give those individuals a tax cut. you cut payroll taxes. here's my issue. is that payroll tax really a
tax? during the lbj administration you took away the trust fund. social security lives hand and mouth right now. so if he lives hand and mouth, is it a tax when you are contributing for a benefit? there's a benefit. these people that are in corporations where they cut the payroll tax is not a tax, it's a contribution. this is a point. can i opt out of it? >> you can't opt out of it. >> can congress opt out? >> they have. >> i know i'm going to get in trouble. it sounds to me like a ponzi scheme. i'm sorry. i can't opt out. they take money. they call it a tax. it's a contribution. then they decide this entity doesn't have to pay it but they will get full benefits on the other end, are they not? >> that's true. >> what else do you want to talk about about taxes? >> i think that the big thing is that we have to get back to simplification. there is rich paying 15% and rich paying 102%. >> i understand the fairness thing. if i'm taxed at say 15% dividend income and i make 100 times more
than you, i'll pay more but i pay a higher rate, it's unfair. okay. i don't agree with that necessarily because i think that type of income is just different. apples and oranges. at the end of the day if this wasn't just a political discussion, toss out the whole thing and make it fair and start over. loopholes are in there by design when tax rates are around 70%, government took about the same amount in as when they were under 30. >> studies showed 17.5% of gdp goes to taxes. >> this is engineered to have loopholes to take care of certain people even though on the outset it's a certain marginal rate that's advertised. it's too complicated. do you agree? >> i agree. simplification is the key. start from scratch. >> back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli in chicago. as we mentioned, world financial center number two being evacuated in lower manhattan. bertha coombs is there with more information. what do we know? >> reporter: we're outside right now on the southern end of the
world financial center and it is tower two. some sources are telling us that apparently through regular screening this morning the screeners encountered a package that they had a concern about and police have been called in. tower two of the world financial center has been evacuated. right now remains cordoned off. police are here on the scene at the moment in front of the tower. we have a number of folks on the outside wondering what is going on. it's very orderly and very quiet from what our sources are telling us the security officials have a concern about this package and they are examining that package and apparently it came up through normal screening process. >> okay. thank you very much, bertha coombs. i know if you find out more, you'll let us know. looking at the tenants of that building, commerce bank and merrill lynch wealth management among others. straight ahead, more on the market rally today. winning and losing stocks from the trading day overseas.
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so you can extend yours. and now, even at 30,000 feet you can still touch the ground. sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner. well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie. [ male announcer ] marriott hotels & resorts knows it's better for xerox to automate their global invoice process so they can focus on serving their customers. with xerox, you're ready for real business. the february ontime arrival rates for airlines is the best survey in the month of february
ever. as you look at the top three, we will follow by the bottom three. keep in mind, in february the fewest number of complaints. the rate of complaints for mishandled bags lowest ever. you look at these, clearly we're benefiting because of weather. the fewest number of complaints about mishandled bags ever recorded by the department of transportation for one month. >> warm weather is the gift that keeps on giving. it would help ontime arrivals but why less with bags? >> they are carrying them on the plane instead of checking them. >> the new yorker cover this week where there's a guy in the aisle putting his car in the overhead compartment. a great cartoon. thanks, phil. let's get a check on markets today. triple digit gains for the dow. what can we expect for the rest of the trading day?
art hogan, always good to see you. welcome back. >> good to see you. >> do you think the correction as it is halfway done? >> probably. i think if we look at the run-up we've had since october lows, s&p is up in a straight line. about 28% coming in at the end of the first quarter. obviously a jackrabbit start to this year. it's natural to think that we should experience something like 5% to 10% pullback. if we see 4.3% come off over the last five days in the s&p, there will be other bumps in the road and grind us down to 7% or 8% in total correction before we start the trend higher. i certainly think that's more of an opportunity. if you talk to investors across the board and heard this plenty over the last month or so, i missed the move. i'm on the sidelines. waiting for a pullback to get more money involved, it's the way to look at this. it's the opportunity. get your pencil sharpened and shopping list ready. >> chatter that analysts aren't giving companies the benefit of the doubt on earnings. you think that is the case. >> it's amazing. we have probably the quietest
preannouncement season we've seen in the last ten years or so. we have less than 30 s&p 500 companies preannounce. that's the quietest year you'll see which indicates earnings are okay or better than expected. i think that is one indicator. other indicator that's hard to measure but we'll find out soon enough is how much of the unseasonably warm winter weather is revenue of earnings from the second quarter. i think on both cases we probably underestimated the earnings reporting season this year. >> one handle on nat gas. goldman says prices may be low this summer but cuts in production, return to normal temps, may result in higher prices in 2013. meanwhile, you think it will at least be a tail wind? >> it is a tail wind when you think about it. more than half of the energy that's produced, electricity that's produced is produced with natural gas and that percentage has gone up. one of the biggest inputs is cost of power. turning lights on. running the machine. that's a tail wind for
everybody. as we start to transition into natural gas transportation vehicles is another tail wind. i think it's a phenomenon that is with us for the next decade in so much as natural gas is going to be more for transportation and it's domestic and creates jobs in the u.s. and it will be something like the new revolution in energy and it's going to be something to watch out for. >> finally, art, how much of the market right now still pivots around the promise of more easing, more accommodation, listening to yellen and dudley over the past 24 hours? >> amazing that fed officials that have been out have been on cue. bernanke has been on message. book ends of bernanke at both ends of the week. it doesn't matter. market participants would rather see an improving economy than more quantitative easing. we know quantitative easing is a possibility. we hope we don't need it because the economy improves on its own. >> art, appreciate it very much. art hogan joining us talking about markets today. when we come back, an update on
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at 140. art cashin, thanks for coming by. what's driving the action today? >> i'm starting to think it's the bobby ewing phase. in the old show "dallas" he was supposedly shot and year later he walked out of the shower and nothing really happened. >> it was a dream. >> i think a lot of wall street got picked off here including yours truly. you see a trend line broken. begin to suspect that you have a correction coming. you start to postpone buying and wait to do it now and things have changed and everybody is rushing back in. short covering. postpone buying and nothing happened. >> do they think there's any company specific forget apple, anybody besides apple that earnings and announcements and forecast and guidance could have an impact across the entire equities market here? >> you can always get a surprise as you know having been in the business so long. i think what they are really going to look at is kind of a collective image here. we have record profit margins
and the theory is that they are as lean as they can be and you will look at earnings and outlook and feeling is you'll get pressure on those margins. it might be less than enthusiastic earning season. >> banks will be the story tomorrow with jpmorgan and wells fargo. is that the critical chapter getting into the earnings season as far as you're concerned? >> the financials have been the stars of the show so far. i think that will tell us a great deal and then we can have time to drill down. of course europe is still there. we have to think about that. >> i absolutely agree. i told you yesterday the financials up 25%. you cannot have that type of performance and not deliver at least in terms of expectations after having that type of huge outperformance. >> art, thanks a lot. we'll talk to you later on. keep the tweets coming today. we'll turn the clock back with sony. if you could make a mixed tape on your walkman, what song would
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new york city police have now officially commented on the suspicious package at world financial center 2 in lower manhattan. according to dcpi a private security screener at the building saw what he thought was an explosive device during the screening process of a visitor. dow jones said that happened around 10:53 eastern time this morning. the nypd was contacted and did respond with the bomb squad and evidence search unit. the building has been evacuated. remains evacuated. of course home to commerce bank, merrill lynch wealth management, and some others and so any further details that we get on this we'll bring to you. for now world financial center number 2 remains evacuated after a screener thought he found an explosive device. meantime, gary kaminsky brought us good stuff this morning at the top of the show about
facebook and the road show that will take place. a couple points regarding the author of this research. >> i call this the real road show. i put that in quotes because in a sense when i tried to explain to people the road show and then there's the type of information that the biggest institutions and biggest hedge funds in the world try to get in terms of due diligence on a road show. there will be a road show. what's in this content here that's the type of stuff given my experience that i know will be the real determinant of how they will trade post-ipo. the author has relationships with google and facebook. relationships in the sense is a client, does business with both of these entities and really understands the return on invested capital that one will get with ads on both of the different platforms. >> it is unusual though. you will admit, to put this out there without a name, right? >> very unusual.
very different. something unique. i guess the point here is that we live in a very different world. we sort of talk about the bond market. there's this idea that with the internet information is really out to everybody. you should understand that if five years from now this is in fact the way that the whole thing played out, everyone should have an opportunity to think about it and digest it and ask the right questions. you should ask the right questions if you're an investor in this space. >> at the beginning of the week the talk was all about instagram and the desk top was no longer enough. how to make mobile work? >> i told you on monday given my experience, people would say that it is silly. here we are four days later and i think i understand a little