tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 13, 2012 4:00am-6:00am EDT
welcome to "worldwide exchange"s. china's q1 gdp expands at its so he he is pace in three years, but shanghai stocks gain. >> first quarter earnings beat forecasts, but it's a move on consolidate control by the company's co-founders that has investors buzzing. >> and jpmorgan could set the bar today as it is the first of the major u.s. banks to report first quarter results.
>> plus spanish banks were rowed more than 300 billion euros in march, highest amount in months. coming up in today's program, google may need a lesson in sharing. it's announced a controversial two for one stock split dividend, but are shareholders getting a good deal. we'll analyze that. elsewhere emerging markets have made up l'oreal's first quarter sales. and what has the art market screaming? all of that and plenty more to come.
and over 300 billion euros borrowed in march. let's talk as well about the other piece of data important for us this morning which is the chinese gdp. >> indeed the big data that we've been talking about all day, certainly growing at its slowest pace in three years. lower than expected gkp reading revised fears for a hard landing for the world's number two economy. china has been hit by weak demand at home and abroad. analysts say the tepid growth figure will boost calls for beijing to roll out more stimulus soon. joining us now is head of research at nsbo, ashley davies, senior economist and strategist at commerzbank, and stewart richardson, wealth management, thank you all so much for joining us. let's kick it off with you, ashley.
>> we're probably looking at the slowest rate of growth for this quarter, but the same is reduced growth, reduced investment, effective high wages, concern about the export environment. everything seems to be pointing to materially weaker growth. >> do you think things will turn around in the second quarter? >> i think the interesting thing about the numbers was consumption actually accounted it for 6.2% of the growth, whereas investment, which is obviously where everyone thinks the real driver of the economy is, was 2.7. so that means what we're seeing now is the government stimulating investments through lending because they're easing up on the monetary policy side. so if you get investment coming back into the economy, adding to the consumption, then you'll see an acceleration coming if to the next few quarters. >> there's not a problem with
that%. chinese government told us it would be 7.5%. no big deal here, is there will? >> china always overperforms. you have obviously the local government's tend to report gdp to 9% and 10%. but 8.1% is good, but probably as low as they want to go. >> i take the view, though, that the chinese economy is so much bigger than of it five years ago that growing at 8% with this size, you're actually still getting the same amount of economic activity. >> even more so. it says a healthy contribution for this quarter and we'll see how the rest of the year goes.
>> we see bank lending also blowing past expectations. how come none of us really had a more positive contribution to the gdp number? >> well, if you look at the trade surplus data, shows export growth and import froet. so i think external activity is growing. in it terms of the sort of activity in the economy, i think there would be somebody slowdown on the the external side. >> i think the key thing actually is you're seeing a pick up again in fixed asset investment as you're seeing the money supply data yesterday was very strong. they took the brakes off the major banks. and if that continues basically in to q2, you're seeing a lot of the money which hasn't been invested in places like
property, affordable housing, railways, coming back into the economy which will support some of the slowdown in the export market. >> is there a new level at which the authorities are comfortable with growth, enough growth on create the jobs that they need to create? >> i think with our own sort of 8.5% growth, you'd expect things to be happy. obviously they need the stability this year in order to offset the political handover. that's throwing up a few problems on the way. so keeping stability, keeping prices stable, keeping jobs growth stable, keeping the economy stable. and i think they want to keep up the level. >> stewart, how will your investment strategies change now that it seems more evident that china's economy is slowing and it seems uncertain as to when the bottom might hid some
whether the end of the first quarter or even stretching into the second quarter. >> what we did is basically to shy away from the equity markets in asia and focus on government bonds. partly from a global point of view it's a much better yield than there is in western. that being said, within asia itself, with the reduction of capital flowing to asia, that's big a big drag on the asian markets together with the current slow down we've been seeing in china. so it's a timing thing. the time for looking for equity investment is maybe third quarter when you you get back away from the slowness. but a bit of a pull back in q3, i think that would be a good opportunity. >> if you take a look at tonight's price action, bounced off highs but ended in the green. there seems to be a lot of talk that easing is on the way, but
not in the traditional form. how do you think they will prop things up in china? >> on the monetary policy side, very limited response. only looking for 50 point reduction. on the miss cal policy side, that's where the room is for boosting the economy. investing in it public housing and the socially positive investments. i think we'll see more of that unveiled throughout the year. >> no major sort of policy mentions -- >> the interesting thing is how they it actually undertake the loosening. because the thing that took the brakes off in march was taking -- changing the loan to deposit ratios because there's not enough deposits in china at the moment, so banks have been bumping up against that ceiling.
so they haven't been able to lend. they changed that in march and that's when we saw the big increase in lending. so there's lots of little tweaks around the edges which isn't this sort of headline interest rate or necessarily -- they're pushing money back into the economy. so sort of a lot of work in terms of trying to work out where all the different policies are loosening. and trying to get money back in to the system. >> just looking at what have been the leverage plays on china, resources and the aussie dollar, aussie dollar has been weak, we'll see what happens with the rate cut potentially coming up again, but resource cuts have been squinking around a lot. so what happens to those sort of leverage plays on china growth? >> i think in terms of stocks, we have to think about where the equity markets are at the current stage. and we are going in to that
summer period, but the key really for global resource stocks is not just china, but what's happening with monetary policy. clearly we've seen a lot of news in the last week or so on the u.s. economy and comments from federal reserve governors. about we get qe-3, those stocks will be off to the races. if china continues to post 8% growth with no meaningful pick up from here and no qe-3, then i think that stocks maybe move sideways. >> okay. stewart, you're thinking around. miranda, thank you. and ashley, as well, from commerzbank in singapore. the ibex yesterday touched a fresh three year low. the bank sector dragging it down. and we're down again heavily this morning. carolyn spent the week in madrid and joins us with some more
thoughts. the key thing, we've passed this law to try and get control over sort of local finances. how important do you think that will be in the long run? >> well, this is an absolutely crucial law. i would say that this is the most important law that spain will have to vote on. that's because remember that the autonomous states were the ones largely responsible for the massive budget deficit slippage that we saw last year. 8.5%, that was a slippage of 2.5%, so this new law which essentially allows the central government to control or be in the region's budget deficits, that is extremely important. it also says that all spanish governments have to have balanced budgets by 2020. also says that the central government has to show a debt to
gdp ratio of 6%. by these are ambitious targets and it's an absolutely key step to restore investor confidence. but the pressure continues for the spanish banking stocks. we just got the ecb data, spanish bank borrowing jumping to a record high the month of march at 360 billion euros. that's almost double the amount that they borrowed in the month of february and that really highlights the troubles for the spanish banking sector. very, very little trust in those banks. the majority of those banks completely shut out of the wholesale funding market and in terms of the retail funding, there is very intense competition for deposits. i should say, toe, that bbda and they both have been able to issue unsecured debt in the first quarter. so the funding problems are smaller for these bigger banks, but extremely high for the smaller banks. so this is why the decline in
the spanish banking stocks today. >> and of course whatever happens in spain, whether deserved or not, there is a correlated trade with italy. this is the head of italy's largest business lobby has about a a u-turn now she supports the measures at the same time the country is bracing for a general strike against pension reforms, thousands already gathering it in rome. claudia, the labor reforms of course is a very key plank of monti's reform program. has it generally got enough support? i know a lot of people are against it, but generally do you think there's enough support in the country and it will go through? >> i think generally he still is getting support on it labor
market reform overall, but it is a difficult reform to push through. the protests in rome are regarding the pension reform and this is a group of people and the question is on how many are they that are actually kind of getting stuck in this pension reform they have been provided with jobless benefits that are supposed to carry them over to when they reach their pension term and how that the erms have changed, the concern is what will they be living off of. the government has expected this number to be at 65,000 and the unions are saying that the number is more like 350,000. so those are the people taking the streets today. but the real key here is the labor market reform which really aims to change article 18 which is one that makes firing easier especially for economic downturns for companies. so this will be significant for the health of these italian companies facing a very difficult situation with the
recession. there has been a lot of fighting over it, but monti still getting support especially though the media has been quite negative on him. >> claudia, thanks for that. ibex a fresh three year low. italian banks dragged down today. is it impossible to separate italy out from spain? >> big differences, but i think they will be lumped together unless investors are told otherwise and that would be through are proper reform. we have to wait and see what the ecb will be doing. but it's just the slowness of response from politicians. whenever you see deterioration of one, the other one will get back down, too. and so far the focus has been on spain and italy. so it's a bit of a vicious circle when things get bad. >> chloe.
>> thank you so much for that. we'll pick up on that conversation in just a bit. in the meantime, let's take a look at what's happening in india. the country's second largest software exporter infosys is reporting a 27% rise in its fourth quarter net profit meeting forecasts but expects weaker sales forecast for the current miss cal year on global growth uncertainties. the company says revenue could rise anywhere between between 8% and 10%, lower than the 12%s to 14% expected by the market. take a look at infosys. stock has been hammered in today's trade. currently down about 10% or so. new york listing happened overnight, certainly remains to be seen, the 10% down side means the stock has just lost about $3 billion in market value. let's's talk more about this first on cnbc interview with ceo and managing director at infosys. sir, thank you so much for giving us your time.
your revenue meets forecast, but your outlook is a little bit more market consensus. yet investors are jumping your sock. are investors just overzealous about expectations? >> img it is the overall picture. we had a difficult quarter in q4. it was definitely challenging. we knew about it actually that it would be a difficult quarter and we gave guidance accordingly. but during the quarter multiple things happened and especially during the end of the quarter. entering the new year, definitely the global economy -- clients are going through a difficult period of time. financial segment clients.
they're not seeing revenue growth. so while profitability is going up, they are not seeing revenue growth. and a leadership change in some of my clients. all of that leads to our guidance. when you give the guidance, it's a statement of fact as we see it today. in today's new normal it's a bold thing to do. it is a statement as we see it today. >> what kind of clients, what sort of industries can you tell us are actually experiencing order ramp downs or cut backs?
>> financial industry segment approximately 34%, and that is where we are seeing the biggest of it. slow nest in decision making and intending. the budgets are close and they're mostly flat or marginally down. but we're not able to get -- when they will take the decision on what. >> this is ross here in london. i'm wondering how much of this what you're talking about, are the environment, are will apply pretty much across the piece for india's outsourcing sector. in other words, this is a story that will affect everybody.
>> we are entering a new normal. but actually in other realities of a client base is important to note. we did have actually a different portfolio service compared with the industry. if you look at our portfolio, we get 30% of our business which will see some amount of volatility in an environment like this. one of the area of growth is the platform business, but it is a completely new business. we have a $20 billion revenue in platform the last year. but we have a 350 tcv business
in platform. so our growth actually makes a big difference. but we clearly clearly believe that this is the way to build the sustainable business model. you need to have a balanced portfolio. you need to have revenue. and product revenue from the i.t. operations. but it needs to be balanced. we clearly believe that that is the way. that is the way to get the performance. >> you've got over $4 billion in cash sitting in your accounts at the moment. are you quite comfortable with that a cash? do you you feel the urmg to do something with it?
we are looking at ways to enhance our business kablt. for example, acquisitions in products. we have to find the right kind. >> thanks very much for joining us. managing director at infosys. we'll take a short break. stocks heading further and further into the red here. the ibex you can see down fresh three year lows. we'll come back with more details. ♪ ♪ i can do anything ♪ i can do anything today ♪ i can go anywhere
quite a bit of green. china's gdp number disappointed, but other sales if line with expectations. a lot of the gains actually coming on the back of expectations that this could be more easing. don't forget there is also about $60 billion in in government bills maturing at the end of the month. it looks like a lot of investors traders are penciling those bills to actually get injected in to the market, as well. financials, property develope developerses getting a bit of a bump up take.
>> european stocks giving up most of the fwans from yesterday. fresh these year hoe for the spanish market. euro-dollar is weaker along with the aussie dollar on the back of the chinese data. keep our eyes on industrial production. and ten year spanish yields, 5.86% still actually contained after the rise as we saw earlier in the week.
headlines, span, stocks hit fresh three year lows at the same time country's banks were rowed more than 300 billion euros in march, highest ever amount. >> china's q1 gdp at the slowest pace in three years. shanghai stocks gain as investors focus on robust money supplies in march. >> google's first quarter earnings beat forecasts, but it's a move to consolidate control by the company's co-founders that has investors buzzing. >> march producer output prices
up on the month. stronger than the 3.4 that was expected. core producer output prices up 0.1%. annual amount it 2.5%. input prices running at a pretty strong 5.8% on the year. expecting 4.6%. so year on year output price the low since january 2010, year on year the low since november 2009, but they are both a little bit more than we might have thought, as well. stu at ri, the bank of england forecasting a big drop off of inflation and there might be doubts as to whether those targets will be met and if they're not, what the implications might be. >> our view would be maybe the inflation rate doesn't fall as fast as the bank of england
thinks. they would love to have scope on the monetary policy front. our view would be if inflation stays above target, then the bank of england has some explaining on do, can they continue to print money. they've done it so far because they've forecast and say that's why it was forecast order a time horizon and print money, but only so far you can continue to do that. >> let's talk about north korea. chloe. >> that rocket launch certainly being condemned around the world, but more problematic for pyongyang may be its wounded reputation after the missile broke up injurijust after takeo. >> reporter: this is an enormous
he embarrassment for the mort korean government. they have assembled journalists, about 100 reporters brought into north korea. we are expecting to see a live video feed of it this launch. instead we were told by officials in washington and reports from south korea and japan that not only had the launch taken place, but that it had failed. according to those reports, the rocket was launched and sometime between a minute and two minutes into its flight, it broke apart and crashed harmlessly into the sea. will this is a model of the okay ket. it is three stages. liquid stage, liquid stage and its liquid or solid stage. and if it did in fact break apart sometime between a minute to two minutes into the flight, that would have been right at the end of the first stage, sometime around the separation between the first stage and the second stage. we are told we will get some sort of comment from the north korean government, but officials we've been talking to seem to know as little as we do.
we actually inform the government minders who we are with that the launch had taken place. he shrugged his shoulders, ran out of the room. this is an incredible embarrassment. they had so much riding on this, not just a moment of national prestige, but this was part of celebrations that are going on in this country to honor the founder of authority korea who was born 100 years ago. so what tells its own people will be critical. but a major embarrassment and this is something that north korea will now have to tell its people that it was a failure. >> and south korea defense officials are saying we can expect more provocations from pyongyang. north korea is likely to try a second missile launch as a wave
boosting solidarity. let's talk more about this topic rare admission coming out. what's changed? >> i think the dilemma is the fact that huh should it respond. it should it go back to the previous ways of doing things which is to be involved in the six party talks, moving ahead to nuclear ambitions. what has changed now is the fact that this satellite launch clearly did not pick up suggests that, number one, its technology is clearly not ready for this and number two, to what extent is it able to continue to play the hotline with some of the rest of the international
community. it will raise questions about its legitimacy as well as leadership issue in pyongyang. >> that's probably why the defense officials are saying that we could see more provocations coming from the north. if not a nuclear test, what else can we see and when will that happen? >> worst case scenario would be a nuclear test, but i wouldn't be surprised if you would see even in the surrounding waters of north korea. you could see the north koreans trumping up some of its achievements even as we hit to the 100th year anniversary before so these are some of the things which we could expect to see in upcoming weeks. >> and in terms of north korea and iran as iran gets ready for
talks with the u.n. security country sti council members, how much does it lessen the bargaining chip that iran might have? >> i would suppose in the case of iran that the dynamics are pretty much different because we have a different set of players involved. we have the whole middle east poll tick up there, as well. so in a sense, it wouldn't be fair to compare what happened in north korea and what happened in iraq. but clearly if we and you can about some of these technology that has been used by north korea with these technology be the same in which iran use and if that's the case, it raises questions about extent of iran's nuclear ambitions. >> and what's also interesting, it's a big year for north kore . life is supposed to be abundant and it's not happening. has to be a lot of pent up energy. >> the big question we should be
asking is there some sort of internal rift within the party. clearly we have a new leer and kim jong-un is expected to provide some sort of leadership. even if imbolsymbolically. but the military people that may have influence as to how pyongyang chooses to develop its strategy. so i wouldn't be is you are pri surprised if we're seeing some form of internal differences over the future approach. >> it came this rare admission, a sign of change. well, thank you so much, we appreciate your thoughts there. >> let's go back to another subject we were talking about earlier. precious metals and energy prices. slower than expected first
quarter growth. losses limited by hopes beijing may ease up monetary and fiscal policy to prop up the growth. a strong spike in new chinese lending also suggests beijing has been acting to support the economy. so what does it all mean? head of quantus research at credit suisse joins us. good to see you. we saw quite a few of the big producers sort of cutting back their forecasts for chinese demand. but they didn't cut back any of their production targets at the same time. because they figure they could take up the slack. what is the outlook right now? >> i think the most interesting hinge going on in china at the moment is that we know growth flowed in to the beginning of this year, there was quite a weak first quarter. but we've seen a rebound over february and march in the lending data and pme. and most interesting part of the numbers last night again was
that you actually saw a big rebound in steel production. so while it's hard to read the tea leaves,ic there's a lot of evidence that we've actually seen the bottom and growth know men it item is improving. >> shy be listening to the iron ore producers? >> iron ore is a classic one where people tend to look at the market and use it as a about a rom barometer. you're actually seeing a lot of people in the market and chinese purchases. and the paper price we spend a lot of time looking at thnks has actually moved up over this week. so it shows that you rather than things getting worse, it looks as though we've turned the corner and all the sentiment is starting to turn up.
>> so as we move into the second quarter, will things start to pick snup. >> i think they already have. steel production numbers were extraordinary. if you look at what we saw in march, it was very clear that we actually saw a big bounce. a lot of people are saying when will it turn up, but my contention is that it's already started. >> and what about margins. a lot of the chinese steel mills are set to be really, really squeezed. sfwh not only are they picking up production, but exports have also started to peck up. so i agree with the iron ore price moving back above $150, either eye getting compressed again, but prices have actually moved up and they feel they're making enough profits to start sticking back into export mar a
kets. >> is there a possibility that fixed asset investment growth continue to be quite robust in china? where does this rebalance in the economy? or is it just fixed asset growth? >> i think that if we sort of look 20 years hence will, there will have been a big rebalancing. i don't think it will happen in the short term. so where i think a lot of analysts miss what's going on in china, i think this is a new thing. is this a new initiative to rebalance. the previous five year plan, it was clear they wanted to rebalance. the main reason it didn't happen is actually really heard. investment is half of your economy and you want 8% growth
and you've already got consumption growing at 10% a year, it's very difficult to have that rebalancing. you can't have consumption growing, so you need to have continued strong investment p. >> we've seen credit suisse cut hair prices targets for all the big miners, bhp, rio, i think they kept their rating steady. you sort of touched on this earlier. you think these guys will probably trade sideways? >> you've got what's happening in china, central bank policieses and equity markets so far, which has been pretty good. our view is that we've come through the sweet spot for equity markets without further stimulus from the fed or ecb. the going is going to get a lot tougher. obviously at the same time, the
world would like to see increased demand from china. if china grows at 8% and there's no qe from the fed, i think flat or maybe slightly down over the next few months. >> all right. request it see you. l'oreal is sitting pretty. in a down day, do investors think they're worth it? >> one of the leaders on the crack 0. actually two socks trading higher. the top gainer is l'oreal. the company confirmed its guidance for the full year predicting another growth in revenue and profits. still believesle outperform its rivals in 2012. the first quarter was stronger than expected. revenue up 9.4% on the quarter. the growth was driven by a strong demand in asia by broad
recovery in north america and by a strong performance on emerging markets. and for the first time ever, l'oreal posted a stronger rev few for emerging market than from western europe. 2.1 billion euro for emerging market, 1.9 billion euro for europe. the luxury cosmetic segment is doing very well. up 12.2% on the quarter. some of the brands were up nearly 30% while the consumer product division posted a 5.1% growth on the quarter. so basically luxury and asia were the two drivers for l'oreal in the first quarter which makes me position that, chloe, typically the highly valued client it for l'oreal. back to you. >> i would like to think so. i'm sure that i play my part. take a look at the asian market,
a. certainly quite a bit of money coming back on to the charts. sensex certainly getting quite a bit of that hangover effect from infosys which was down in earlier check, about 10%, remember, because of the outlook. not so much for the quarterly profit numbers that they gave us. it's about easing expectations from china. what's interesting is that they have lots of bills expiring at the end of this month and expectations are that that will trickle into the financial system. so a lot of the banks, property stock and cyclical plays help to go lift the greater china region. kospi up 1%. >> just bounced off the session lows here in europe. we're down about 0.#% for the ftse. remember up over a percent pretty much across the indices yesterday and we've given the gains back.
euro and the aussie dollar most affected. strong employment data yesterday. euro-dollar still very tight in the ranges. a little bit weaker, 131.55. yen surprisingly is weaker today. 80.88. and the pound just a little bit weaker post industrial production numbers. not industrial production numbers, but ppi, producer price inflation numbers. 1.5916. sterling index has done fairly well over the last couple months. >> ditto for the sing dollar, as well. security watch dog seeking penalties against the third largest brokerage. it says it tipped off investors to buy shares based on confidential pore. let's find out more about this
from the nikkei. >> sales officials from the brokerage had leaked information where they served as underwriter. it's asking investors to buy fewly issued shares in these companies before the plans were made official. the sesc considers this as insider raiding. the sesc has boosted surveillance after a string of scandals were unveiled this 2010. but it's a difficult task. under the current law, it is not illegal for to pass on undisclosed information on its clients. it's only considered illegal when the information is used to actually trade shares. they hope the punishment will be a deterrent to other brokerages. but analysts say it will take much more time to clear out all
the unfair trading from the market. that's all from the nikkei business report. back to you. >> have a fantastic friday evening. tank you so much. ross. >> still to come, it's been called the second most famous painting in the world only behind the mona lisa. now it's up for auction. but how much is it expected to fetch? find out when we come back.
morgan, thanks for joining us. there are pour versions of this painting. three are in public areas. >> this is the only one it private hands. so it's essentially the only piece that can be traded anytime coming up in the future. it's it actually been off the market, privately displayed since 1979. this is the first time that the public has the opportunity to view the picture. >> will he be happy with an $80 million price? >> i think he probably will be very happy. expectations are that it could be going up to as much as $150 million which with obviously be
the highest price of publicly sold piece of art. >> ever. >> ever. yes. there are private sales which they say have -- a recent say of the card layer series that rumored for $250 million. but that has not been confirmed. >> who is going to be bidding? >> it could bemoan coming from the middle east, from china, coming from russia p. this is a trophy artwork. there has never been a piece with such fame coming to a public forum. this piece is probably as famous just because of the press and image and the history of the piece, it's probably as famous as the know that lisa. it's so widely recognized. it's been used in advertising. just an iconic image. and this is an opportunity for someone to buy a piece of will history. >> a lot of chinese investors
tend to be quite pay ttriotic, going for the pre-historic pieces. what are is the selling point for this fine piece of art? >> for an asian buyer, it is buying one of the most widely recognized pieces of art available. china has just overtaken the united states according a into report that was published, over 30% of the market share passing the united states for the first time in terms of the global share of the market. whether we're going to see chinese bidders on this, it's unlikely that we'll know for sure. the auction house is a private forum. a lot of action takes place on the telephone. so we might not have confirmation at all whether this is coming from russia, united states, middle east or china. >> and how does the tax issue work out? that's a key point for a lot of
international -- >> that depends on which country and company they're buying from. at this point, it's up to whoever buys that to sort out the tax situation. >> do they pay v.a.t.? >> it depends. they pay buyer's premiums. equals frostily 12%. >> i just want to know the uk government is getting it something out of will this. >> unfortunately, the sale is being held in morning, so the american government will -- >> well, thanks very much indeed for that. how would you reinvest the $80 million? >> we'd love to have the opportunity. we've had a great start to the the year in many risky assets. time to be more cautious or defensive. quality investments pay a good yield, i think serb policy
corporate bonds would be a good place to park money for the short permanent term. >> emerging market bonds? >> government bonds is a better yield, but of course you do have a currency exposure. >> are you planning on sort of -- we've seen asia currencies stronger. are are you planning for general strength ping of asian currencies? >> we're currently unhedged. we'd hope to over time 3% to 5%. >> what will you look at most closely in terms of news or economic day a flow? >> i think the key will be the markets in u.s. we see continued softening of data, the last month we've seen majority of data points did disappoint. if that continues and we've see dovish speak from fed governors this week, if that continues, then qe-3 will be -- >> dovish members of the fed,
though. >> they're the key members. >> good to see you. have a good weekend. we still have another hour of programming to go. jackie joins us as normal at this time. >> good morning. happy friday the 13th. of course still to come on the show, that's a new twist on the google tale. the search giant announces a stock split as a way to keep control of the company with its founders. we'll discuss the detail. ♪ ♪ why do you whisper, green grass? ♪ [ all ] shh! ♪ why tell the trees what ain't so? ♪ [ male announcer ] dow solutions use vibration reduction technology to help reduce track noise so trains move quieter
google has investors buzzing. spanish stocks hit fresh three year lows. the country's banks borrowed more than 300 billion euros from the ecb in march, the biggest ever amount. >> and fresh calls for beijing to ease, but shanghai stocks gain as investors focus on robust money supplies in march. >> and jpmorgan is the first of
the major u.s. banks to report first quarter results. >> very good morning. welcome to global trading day. italy final inflation 2.5%. far more important is the progress of monti's labor reforms. there there are protests in rome today against pension reforms, as well. ahead of the open in the u.s., european bourses are lower today. they were down about a percent across the board yesterday, so up about a percent across the board yesterday. so given up those days. ibex down 2.5%. banks weaker in spain and italy. ibex a fresh three year low. as far as bubd yields have concerned, they haven't moved so much. the spread has widens between ten years and bunds. so just back up to 5.9%. italian ten year hasn't gone up
with it. still just below the 5.5%. how is that feeding in to futures, jackie? >> actually some of that negative sentiment feeding into the futures, as well. the dow by 34, nasdaq by 10 and s&p 500 lower by 4.3. it of course after we did see another rally yesterday. the dow had its best day in a month, best day for the nasdaq and s&p, as well, since march 26th. we saw materials and energy leading the way higher. it everyone focusing on google's numbers. costs per click fell 12%. ad rates are down for the second straight quarter. the search giant also announcing a special dividend creating a new class of nonvoting shares in which ceo calls a two for one stock split. the move cements control of the company in the hands of the
co-founders. page is he it sets up a corporate structure that makes it harder for outside parties to take over or influence google. joining us now is our guest host to talk about this and many other topics. matthew bishop. great to have you with us, as well. we were talking about google will, those numbers and this stock split. what's your take on the announcement today? >> it's the same as we've always known with google. they went public with a structure that cemented the control of the founders. and i think this just reinforces the idea that google is a bit different, that they've gone public wanting to actually be a very different sort of structure
structure. >> as long as things progress in the way hers moving, people will buy into the stock. >> government governance only matters when things are going wrong. and google is doing fine at the moment. i think we'll see similar structures with facebook and some of the other companies coming out of silly con galley. google has rewritten the rules and others are following in their footsteps. so this idea that you can somehow be both a public company and also in a way retain many of the benefits of being a private company is something that google has pioneered. some companies like news corp where the murdochs are under attack because of their share structures and dual shares in
the past are often entrenched power starts to cause problems. we're not that the point yet in google. >> obviously the stark has had a great run. any indication to you that we're at levels perhaps where it is time to sell and pull back some position in google? >> i wouldn't take anything serious i say about its valuation, but it does seem the company is one of the great companies of the world at the moment, still continuing to be in-know indicative and grow. but at some point, that will stop. it doesn't peel like now that particular moment. >> we'll get more from matthew bishop during the rest of the hour. for more analysis, head to cnbc.com. bob pisani gives us his take. and we'll be getting about to motorola's impact on google with our next guest, he believes the questions surrounding the telecom's company could begin it
resurface. we'll have that later on the show. and china's economy grew at its sloeest pace in three years. first quarter gdp expanded lower than expected 8.1%. >> and that puts pressure on metal prices. precious metals also lower. gold down along with silver and platinum. joining us for more, michael green, co-writer of a book with matt bishop, in gold we trust. the future of money in an age of uncertainty. joining us is michael green. nice to see you. is this the way you nrmly keep you and matthew a long way apart especially when you wrote the book? >> nice to be with you about yeah, the secret to a good relationship is stay building 3,000 miles apart and having all your fights over e-mail. >> i wonder if that works for marriage. anyway, in gold we trust. the book is basically -- we've
seen gold bubbles before. the big question people will be saying is why can't that happen again. and it seems to me gold has been much better as a deflationary hedge which has been the fear over the last five years. >> the book really was about that puzzle. we've seen gold bubbles before and as gold was rising over the last couple years, people were saying it's a bubble again and it's being driven by crazy people. and we were just struck that people, some of the most successful investors in the world, were taking gold seriously. hair taking it seriously largely because of the risk of inflation. and the danger, dramatic monetary experiment of qe is going to at some point feed into inflation. or even if qe doesn't lead to inflation, we'll see governments to try to climb out of highly leveraged recession that we're in. actually using inflation as a tool to get the economy going
again. so gold is really a story about what's going on in the wider economy and it's an issue for everyone concerned about how the recovery will actually happen. >> it's sort of interesting. the question is whether you keep mf-whether you will parlay in fresh on those investors. and in inflationary world, my choice of assets, and i had sort of prefer to own stocks which will pay me for holding them where gold won't pay me for anything. that's why. >> that's the warren buffett line, invest if productive stocks rather than useless metal. but john paulson says gold is a form of money and therefore xwld will become value. so if he's right, there's a long way to go. >> matthew, when you were
writing this with michael, what were your doubts about gold? >> i've always been a skeptic about gold up until recently p i had felt that when people start to talk about gold, i used to feel like i was being cornered by an evangelist or something who wanted to shut the door and move on. but as michael says, it was a sense that some of the smartest people like ray dalia who did call the downturn in the crash, they actually take gold very seriously as a uhe peeror form of money to paper money that we'll rely on. and there is that long history that when people are worried about quality paper money, they turn to gold. >> that's the point. you treat it as a currency
rather than as an asset like stocks or bonds. is that the key thing? >> the question is partly that we've had this huge unprecedented printing of money through qe, that you're right, hab hasn't yet turned in to inflation. but every time before it has turned in to inflation. but there is this broader worry that our political system has now got so much debt and the only way you can reduce the debt, you raise taxes, you you cut spending or you kind of inflate away the real value of the debt. and historically, governments have shown as as we write in gold we trust, governments have known that they will quite often debase the occurrences city rather than to the hard things. we think that may be the easiest time this time around. >> the oecd today released a
report that say the advanced economies are facing 40 years of austerity. do we really think that's going to stick in our prediction is that governments, politicians will find it easier to treat the cancer of death with a chemotherapy of inflation than any other mek him. mechanism. >> which is the best chapter? >> matthew writes all the jokes. >> i'll read his chapters then. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks so much to michael green. still to come, spain's debt troubles seem far from over as the country's banks increase their borrowing from the ecb to the highest ever level in march. we're live in madrid with the latest.
let's start in the united states. take a look at the u.s. futures, see how we're setting up for trade on wall street. does look like it will be a lower open, dow down by nearly 42, nasdaq by nearly 11 and the s&p 500 down by 5.7. at this point seeing the china gdf figure weighing on the markets. ross, i do want to point out, it is friday the 13th, but the markets don't typically get
spooked. it is the second of three fridays 13th here in the united states. the unluckiest dow components over the last six of these friday the 13ths have been the financials and i find that interesting given the fact we have the jpmorgan and wells fargo numbers this morning. how does it look in europe. >> >> and how does caterpillar do on friday the 13th? cat, right? >> it's the black cat as they call it. and it's about a 50/50 mix. >> so not that unlucky then basically. >> exactly. >> here we are on friday the 13th as you say, jackie, and we were up about a percent yesterday's sessions. we've given most of those gains back. ftse 100 down a third. cac 40 down a percent. ibex continues a fresh three year lows. banks weaker again today. they borrowed record amount there is the ecb in the month of march. euro-dollar and aussie dollar have been weaker on the back of
that gdp data. big boost after better employment data. sterling unexpected by the producer prices. stronger on the annual figures. dollar-yen, dollar up slightly against the yen. singapore government putting through policy measures. euro-dollar still trading in tight ranges. ten year spanish bonds back over 9.5%. in italy, barely contained blow the 5.5% mark at the moment. >> we faired not too badly today. but the interesting thing is there was so much momentum pumped in to the market, expectation because bank lending figures out of china in fact after the market closed
yesterday really blew past expectations alongside some very decent m2 money supply figures. so we clearly bounced off our highs even though the closing figures look pretty decent, as well. also fueling some of these gains today are expectations given gdp came in below expectations. remember, lots of bills expiring at the end of it this month. worth about 400 billion yuan. that's about 60 billion u.s. dollars. a lot of investors are betting that will be trickled into the financial system, as well. hang seng up 1.8, shanghai com positive inup just a third of 1%. and that rocket satellite launch also fizzled out, as well. sensex down quite a bit. remember, infosys losing about 3 build in market value after its outlook disappointed investors there. and that will do it for all of
us here in asia. have a fantastic friday. see you next week. >> have a great weekend. and let's just delve a little bit more into sane. ba spain. banks underperforming as the government is trying to arrest budget control with the new law. carol r carolyn has been in madrid all week. >> let me put the woborrowing da into perspective. it jumped to a record high of 360 billion euros. but a large part of the increase is actually to the ltro mch we know spanish banks have participated strongly. . so the data shouldn't be a huge surprise. but you're right, it is a very stark reminder of how dire the funding situation is for spanish banks. remember, that was also highlighted by fitch earlier
this week and the majority of the spanish banks are shut out from the wholesale funding market and that's why they have to rely on the ecb. but i do want to point out that the ltro came with another problem. analysts say with the ltro cash, spanish banks loaded up massively on spanish government debt. they say to the tune of 79 billion euros. the problem is yields on sovereign spanish debt have caught up by 1% since the beginning of march and that could mean some sizable losses for those spanish banks if they do mark to market. back to you. >> we loaded the weakest banks up with the weakest debt. it's a big leverage play. thanks for that, carolyn. jackie. coming up next, jamie dimon isn't shy about making big pronouncements. earlier this weekend corporate america is in great shape. about that positive sentiment apply to his own company's results? ♪
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jpmorgan kicks off earnings season for the banks today reporting first quarter results at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. the analysts are expects earnings of $1.18 a share on revenue of roughly $27.4 billion. investors will look for continued growth in commercial loans and a decline in mortgage related losses which jamie dimon noted in his annual letter last week. joining us now to talk more is managing director at westwood capital. and matthew bishop is still with us. len, let's talk about jpmorgan. a lot of folks will look at this number as a larger sort of sentiment to speak to the health of the banking sector and how the u.s. economy is looking right how. so your take on what's expected for these numbers. >> sure. yeah, jpmorgan has that special role of kicking off banking season today, they're being joined by wells fargo, although jpmorgan got their conference
call a little bit earlier. i think jpmorgan will do well. what's happened with the banks since they're now just mega financial institutions and not really commercial banks is each quarter shows where that bank is exposed. and this is going to be the quarter of fixed income currencies and commodities. it will also be a great quarter for those banks that do a lot of mortgage origination because refinance activity. and jpmorgan will do well in both of those areas. jpmorgan should have no trouble meeting or beating the estimates. and we're looking forward to that. >> we've seen a run up in the banks obviously since the beginning of will it year. he were so sold off that investors have slowly come back into that sector. so the question that i have for you is when we're looking at pannings s banks on a long term basis, are these long it term buys?
>> one of the biggest problems facing banks today is that they have have these held to maturity portfolios with assets that have company lat the ral that's worth less than the loan itself. and at some point, that's going to be a real problem. it's an asset quality question and you can't really tell by looking at the gap in financials what's going on. and the banks have managed to hobble through since the financial crisis by finding one revenue source or another. if it's not releasing reserves, it's low interest rates. if it's not that, it's trading activity. you know, this quarter for jpmorg jpmorgan, they're a huge derivatives trader. the largest investment bank in the world. the income is not coming from core lending operations like you'd like to see a commercial bank have, but because of the demise of glass-steagall, these banks are into all different kinds of things and earnings have become a little easier and
more difficult to predict. long term, i'm not fond of the banking sector. long term, the banking sector should really reflect the health of the economy. and we've got a weak housing market. we've got 3.25 million units and inventory in overhang of mortgages that are in will default but not yet in foreclosure. 1.25 million loans in foreclosure. and what that means in an economy where 70% of gross domestic product is made up of consumer spending is that we're not going to get any big expansions anytime soon. and any recovery will be hobbled because the consumer hurts. >> it's fascinating because about how much you say banks are still sort of in hock on the coy later
l collateral and my opinion is u.s. banking system is much further through in terms of dealing with it than they are in europe. so if you're of the view that the u.s. financials are still a ways down, then i don't really want to think about just how bad a situation we are in europe. but what is the implication in terms of credit getting any kind of meaningful credit into the u.s. economy? >> those are fantastic questions. you know, comparing someone who has a broken leg to someone who has two broken legs always makes the person with one broken leg feel good about themselves. but what does that mean. well, if you've got these held to maturity portfolios, where it's just a matter of time until we see the real value. and what i'm talking about there, it would be a loan, for example, held at -- >> 20 years before it gets to maturity. >> it could be, but i don't think it will get to maturity. i think what will end up happening is if you have any further erosion in the housing
market, those borrowers will default in huge propensity. plus you've got a tremendous amount of loans that are in reperforming mode, meaning they defaulted once and now they're paying their monthly payments. and the propensity of those loans to default is 40% to 55%. so when you add all that together, there's this overhanging drag on earnings. when the guy who owes $300,000 on his mortgage but has a $200,000 house who has been paying, and the bank is holding the mortgage at full value, all of a sudden says, hey, why am i paying this mortgage. >> there are so many good points to talk about when it comes to banking. and of course the housing sector, as well. but we're running out of time, so we'll thank you for joining us. and of course matthew bishop will stay with us. meantime, coming up on the show, we'll talk to another guest who says that the economic recovery will not fade away this year
like it did in 2010 and 2011. what makes him so optimistic? [ male announcer ] this is the at&t network. a living, breathing intelligence helping business, do more business. in here, opportunities are created and protected. gonna need more wool! demand is instantly recognized and securely acted on across the company. around the world.
first quarter earnings beat forecasts, but it's a move to consolidate trillion by the company's co-founders that has investors buzzing. and jpmorgan could set the bar today as it's the first of the major u.s. banks to report first quarter results. >> first quarter gdp in dchina slowest in three years. but shanghai stocks gain as investors focus on robust money supplies in march. and in spain, stocks hit fresh three year lows. banks borrowed more than 300 billion euros in march. biggest ever amount. >> nice to have you on "worldwide exchange." let's take a look at the u.s. futures. does look like it will be a lower open. that figure out of china over the gdp number pressuring
futures. dow by 35, nasdaq by 10 and the s&p 500 lower by about 4 1/2 points. ross, you're also seeing pressure in europe, as well. >> and we've just seen debt insurance costs rise to a new record, as well, market suggesting five year cdss at a record 592 basis points. spanish market down there at the bottom off 2.16%. that's a three year low for the spanish stocks. elsewhere, we've sort of given up the 1% gains. >> meantime it's been fed speak galore this week with speeches from more than 12 central bank officials. new york fed president william dudley is scheduled to speak later today on regional and national economic conditions. that's at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. and the week will culminate with ben bernanke and his take on
lessons learned from the crisis. he'll be speaking at the rethinking finance conference at the princeton club in new york. we'll have live updates throughout the morning with steve liesman and plus bernanke's speech live at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. joining us now is paul dales at capital economics. and still with us matthew bishop. paul, let's start with you. when it comes to fed speak, every listening very, very closely to any indications that we may see more qe-3 on the table. as far as we know, of course they're keeping it open as an option, but doesn't look like it's likely at this point. what are your thoughts? >> i completely agree with that actually. you also need to think about who to listen to on the fed. so in recent days we've had plows
plosser and la company take have been bullish, but they don't have voting rights. so i'd put more weight on yellen and bernanke. and they are cautious, but not desperate to do anymore quantitative easing. i think the economy would need to weaken much further for that to happen. >> david brum made the point we expect the dove to be dovish. >> compared to a few months ago, the economy is actually doing okay it at the moment. inflation is looking like it will be around the core target of 2%. so i think things will have to change. >> how much of -- a month ago, there was shall this big feeding and helped to drive in part asset prices was this time it is different, we are moving in different from last year in the sense we're moving into a
sustained u.s. recovery. so one has to say how much of that feeling was actually just the fact we had amazing weather over the winter. natural gas prices very low, offsetting higher oil prices and how much actually is a sustained recovery. >> i think you're right, i do think the day take was flattened a little bit by the unseasonably warm weather in the united states and that might explain some of the weakness of the data in the last month or two. but i think will arethere are a differences to the situation now and if i just cite two of those. auto and housing sectors now appear to be coming back to life and also banks are lending again, both to businesses and how else holds. it's certainly something that is in direct contrast to what's going on in europe and the uk, as well. >> i think one of the interesting questions is last year, i think it was the crisis
in europe that really freaked out everyone in america. and particularly the business world and made everyone put a lot of discretionary spending on hold. and i wonder whether what you're seeing in it europe will have a similar effect or do you think the ecb is going to make sure it doesn't become quite as scary as it last year? >> i think you're right. i think what the ecb has done with its ltros is just paper over the cracks in europe. so the european problem is not solved and we are actually bearish on the eurozone economy. but i do think the u.s. is pot completely immune, but it could cope with a deeper recession in the euro zone. although the u.s. economy is doing okay, i think p the recovery is best described as steady rather than spectacular. it does have its own headwinds.
and while it will outperform countries in the eurozone and the uk and maybe even japan and canada this year and next, it's still not going to be spectacular and we're expecting gdp growth of just two between% this year and 2.5% next year which is not bad compared to recent years. but really pot what we would hope after such a deep recession. >> a lot of the reason the fed is hedging is to watch the economic indicators and today we'll get inflation numbers. the march consumer price index out at 8:30 a.m. eastern a time "forecast to go" up by 0.2% showing that the cost of living is rising at a slower rate.
>> perhaps linked to higher car prices as auto dealers seem to be respond responding to stronger demand. inflation in the united states is still barely subdued. i think the core inflation rate will slip from just above the 2% target to just below that 2% target. so the main message is that inflation is not a big issue in the u.s. at the moment and what the fed is really worried about is that high unemployment rate and not the risk of massively hire inflation. >> all right. we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much, paul dales. >> and something completely different, sought korean defense
officials say we can expect more provocative actions after today's rocket failure. likely to try a second missile launch to boost internal solidarity after north korea fired a rocket but it broke up just minutes after blasting up. the act being condemned as a breach of u.n. security rules. at the same time, north korea's lead leader with a massive rally. these are live pictures. coming up next on the show, google's move to preserve cash and consolidate control in the hands of it founders is raising a lot of eyebrows in the states,
clicks fell 12%. ad rates are down for the second straight quarter. also announcing a special dividend creating a new class of nonvoting shares in what larry page call as two for one stock split. in a statement page says this sets up a corporate structure that makes it harder for outside parties to take over or influence google. a lot of issues to break down. joining us on the line from minneapolis is gene munster at piper jaffray. great to have you with us. just want to start here with your view on going google. raising your price target to 730, but you still think that the mote roll are a acquisition could put a cap on gains. >> the quarter last might was about a 6, but it really needed to be an 8 or 9 to get investors to look beyond motorola. because that's the ultimate black hole here over the next
six to nine months is how mucbe roll that. >> what are your expectations for the second quarter for google? >> we're looking for 22% top line group. this continued idea of slight deceleration of growth, but just for its size, it's an impressive growing company, but obviouslies's declining. >> there have been media resulting suggesting google could sell its motorola, at the paid $12.5 billion for this. no update that i could see. what's your own view on what they do in motorola? >> that was the frustrating part about the call last knighnight. they never addressed the issue. what they've said in the past is
that they're interested if holding on to the hardware assets and so as we've surveyed investors, 72 of the 75 said they wanted to sell that hardware business. and so unfortunately, investors want them to get rid of it and it probably won't happen. >> one thing you tend to think when you see a company did a special dividend is that it's entering a maturing phase and starting to run out of steam in terms of growth and needs to sweeten things with investors. is this what's going on with google? >> i think that was the rule maybe a year ago and if you look at the top tech companies they said there's been some shift on that. so that's the first thing i think that there's been a difference -- especially like with apple now. separately this is functionally a stock split versus a dividend. i know practically it's -- or
functionally it is a dividend, but for all practical purposes, it's a stock split. >> and, gene, investors have typically been okay with google co-founders keeping control within the company. but as we were discussing earlier, in hard times they may pick on that a little bit more. what's your feeling on how the split works out and how investors read it now and in the longer term? >> i think now it's more of a nonevent. in talking to investors after the news came out yesterday, they were more interested in what the growth rate was and what's going on with the paid clicks and cpcs. so i would say that's the primary focus. eats just something new we have to get our head around. as far as getting the control that the founders need, the jury is still out as far as page will do as ceo. in particular how much investing he'll do. and i think there's always this
skepticism from the buy side that he'll just spending a agrees safely. and so i think that the bottom line is that the jury's not out. >> all right. fair enough. gene plun sistemunster, thank y for joining us. giving us a little more isight n google. for more, head to cnbc.com. you can see some of the pin action there. and coming up next, investors don't tend to be spooked by bring the 13th, but is that going to change today. we'll touch on trading on wall street.
welcome back to the show. china's economy expanded at the slowest rate in three years with first quarter gdp coming in at 8.1% just short of expectations. now, this growth figure comes in it line with earlier data which showed weak exports and frail imports as a result of decreased demand both at home and overseas. meantime here in the states, jpmorgan kicks off earnings season for the banks today reporting first quarter results at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. analysts expecting earnings of $1.18 a share on revenue of roughly $27.4 billion. investors will look for continued growth in commercial loans and a decline in mortgage related losses which jamie dimon noted in his annual letter last week. wells fargo also reports first quarter numbers at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. expecting 72 cents a share there. wells reducing bad loans and increasing cash reserves. right now we're seeing them both trading higher over in europe.
let's also look at the calendar, march cpi at 8:30, also first quarter earnings from jpmorgan and wells before the bell and we'll wrap up a busy week of fed speak as bill dudley speaks at 8:00 a.m., bernanke also scheduled to speak and take questions at 1:00 p.m. at the rethinking finance conference at princeton. let's talk china for a second because we haven't really gotten into these numbers in terms of the numbers for gdp. i know it's all about the expectations, but at the same time, 8.1% is a pretty healthy clip of growth. >> they always say the magic number is 9%. if they keep growth at 9% a year, they'll keep their political problems under control whereas consistently growing at even a percentage point less could spell real trouble.
and we do have this leadership transition going on in china. it's already proved much more problematic than expected because of the dismissal and scandal of whether there was a murder and so forth. so i would normally expect china has plenty of fuel to be able to pump in to the economy and get its growth rate back up to 9%. and i'm sure the outgoing leadership want to leave on a high with a strong economy. but you do wonder just in the back of your mind if there's a sneaking suspicion that maybe the transition is not going as well as hoped and they may not be able to pull the levers of powers easily as they have in the past when the leaderships has been strong and secure. >> that's a good point as we look forward. the number seems to be dragging down the futures here in the united states. do you worry this number not meeting expectations is trouble to come not refor the rest of t year? >> it's a risk, but i suspect
what's hitting america is what's going on in europe because i do think the mums there and the fact that spain has attitudely come on to the agenda does -- is starting to revive all those fears that went around the end of last year. but with china, there's no fundamental reason why china can't get its economy growing strongly, but it's just a question of whether there's something going on in a very opaque system that we can't see and that spells trouble. i think we probably need another couple of quarters before we know where we are with that. >> it seems the real risk has always been a systemic financial risk. and the ecb will go out of their way to try to make sure that risk doesn't materialize into something. if that's the case, surely the growth rates in europe won't have that big an impact. >> i don't know what your sense is, but to me, the fact that bond market vigilantes are
testing spanish bonds with the yields going up so much in the last few days is a test of how committed the ecb really is to that strategy. and i suspect it is committed and i suspect it will pass that test. but at the moment, i was just surprised how strongly the fear came back so quickly in the last few days. >> it will be interesting to see. i think people are talking about once we get over 6% or -- we had a guest on earlier in week saying 6.2%, 6.1% for spanish yields. we'll see where the ecb goes. but we had this comment out from kerr saying we can always restart the program. as they keep buying time is whether they'll get in on grips with the fundamental problems. and that's maybe what we're doubting. >> you also have the issue with
the french election coming up and will we get a left wing cann candidate elected there. hedge funds saying a france is a short at the moment. and you just sense this feeling in t he air of fear coming back. but i suspect 9the ecb will do whatever it has to do to keep the banking system out of crisis, but it may have to do quite a lot to really prove that point. >> and a lot of things still up in the air right now in europe and the u.s. thank you so much to matthew bishop. and that wraps it up for today's edition of "worldwide exchange" and for us for the week. i'm jackie deangelis here in the united states. >> i'm ross westgate in europe. "squawk box" up next. ♪
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power play by going elg founders in the storm of a stock split and earnings central goes to the bank. jpmorgan and well fargo on today's calendar. it is friday, april 13th, 012, and "squawk box" begins right now. welcome to "squawk box." and china's economy grew at its slowest pace in three years during the first