tv Fast Money CNBC April 17, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
i'm melissa lee and here are the top three trades. we are covering the conference calls with top analysts. industrial evolution. we have a guest who said nat gas is the key to a renaissance in the u.s. we will get the top picks in the portfolio and trading tomorrow's news tonight. from ebay to qualcomm. they are taking positions on the short universe in tomorrow's section. this is fast money. got to start trading and get to the action. lots of tech names and let's pick it off with intel. they are looking at hitting a
fresh 52-week high in today's session. looked like decent guidance also. >> i think you have to ask yourself two question. is this the beginning of the summer swoon for technology. we are not off to a good start in terms of price action with intel and ibm. the second question is, is the expectations for q2 and intel specific to the stock too high? there is evidence in this report that yes, it is. inventoriy is up $400 million. investors are not going to like that. the expectation was 63.4 was where we were coming in. we are below that. why? capex remains high. they spend about $5 million in a year. last year they do about $10 billion. the spending more, the hard disk drive problems that were anticipated in q1 rolling into q2, i don't know if you are going to see a tremendous amount
of restocking. the problem is all related to q2 guidance and i think the street is too high. i wouldn't buy the stock here. i think it is rolling over. >> the street is not about 13.45 billion. that's taking into account the ivy drij. >> somewhere a little under 4% after sales growth. >> we have breaking news on warren buffett. he is diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer. saying he has cancer. this is just crossing here. we of course don't know anything necessarily about the succession plans of birk shirt hathaway. there were people he detona des as successors and we don't know who. before it doesn't seem like it was a problem. to know not who the successors would be. maybe now. that's the problem. >> to me it's a lot clearer who they are.
you are never going to replace someone like a warren buffett. let's keep it in perspective. it's a headline and we know that that's all we know at this point in time. i think there is a succession plan and investors would not be as spooked as they would be a year ago. >> we saw in the after hours session and his continue is note remotely life-threatening. those are his words. herb greenburg as more on the story. >> this is a letter to berkshire from warren buffett to let you know i have been diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer. the good news is i am told by my doctors my condition is not remotely life-threatening or even debilitatindebilitating. he received the diagnosis on wednesday and he had a cat scan and a bone scan followed by an mri today. the tests show no incidence of cancer elsewhere in his body. the doctors decided that a
two-month treatment will begin in mid-july. it will restrict his travel schedule, but will not otherwise change my daily routine. he feels great and said if he were in normal health, his energy level is 100% and he discovered the cancer because the psa level jumped beyond the normal elevation and a biopsy seemed warranted. he went on to say per your comments earlier, i will let them know immediately if they health situation changes and eventually it will, but i believe that day is a long day off. back to you. >> herb greenburg, thanks so much for filling us in. the contents to shareholder, your thoughts on this? >> to get to the succession issue, we don't know who it is, but they might. the bort has a plan and they have been working on this for a number of years. in terms of succession plans for one of the iconic ceos which he
clearly is, they have probably done a good job. i think it's something shareholders can rest assures there will be a captain for the ship. >> in case you are joining us, warren buffett writing that he has been diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer. he will begin a two-month course of treatment and he feels great and there no other incidents of cancer elsewhere. that's the silver lining to this all. we are watching the shares lightly lower in the after hours session. as we get more on this story, we will bring it to you. meantime, we want to proceed with the after hours action and want to get back to the intel story. joe was talking about the second quarter disappointing in terms of the guidance. we are talking about the new processor that could launch and jump-start revenues. >> they were all excellent and what people will be concerned about is the peak margins now. are they going to basically show you the peak of the stock price? i'm not sure that will be the
case. i think that has been an argument for the last five or six quarters that hasn't worked. what may work is in the form of the 29 level. if you go back or six years, they have been resistant. what does it mean? intel is a great stock and this is not to cast dispursions, but they have meaningful pull back. you can buy it again. valuations are compelling. the stock of the quarter was fine. nothing really to knock. operating margins were 29 1/2%. they still seem to be doing everything right, but the stock for the short-term at least might have found a home at the 29 level. look for it to pull back below 27. >> they are on to something. this is more of a stock market than a company issue. the inventories are up and everything is true, but we know that the pc industry is not a growth industry necessarily. the growth for intel is going to come from mobile. the mobile strategy and windows
8. if they can somehow hook into windows 8 and the ultra book as well. if you see the growth drivers, they have to have time to buy it and get bull back here not to be bought. wait a couple of days. >> we will be on the conference call. partners on the fast line right now with reaction to this news about warren buffett. warren buffett announcing in a letter that he is diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer. your initial reaction to the news? >> i only found out a moment ago so i have not had a chance to do too much research. the first reaction is a personal one and i'm very sorry for him personally. i went and did a quick google search on this and was relieved to see that the five-year survival rates for stage one cancer is 99.9%. i breathe a sigh of reand most
importantly for him as a person, but second most importantly as a much more distant importantly as an investor in berkshire hathaway. we added to it recently. based on the assumption that warren buffett will be runing it over the next five years, a good chance over the next years and the news doesn't change our estimate of that one bit. >> at what point do you get concerned that you as the investor even if the board knows who the successor may be that you as a shareholder do not? >> i'm not too worried about this succession issue in part because i don't think it's happening any time soon and today's news doesn't change that. i think charlie monger said it well a couple of years ago. for 50 years, warren buffett made spectacularly great decisions. one after another, hundreds after hundreds of great
decisions. do you think he is going to screw up the most important decision he ever make at the very end? that's unlikely and a final comment is our valuation of berkshire hathaway pushing $180,000, we do not factor in $1 of warren buffett premium in that. we take the investments per share and put a modest multiple on the business and there is no warren buffett premium in there. we think that's conservative. >> if you can hang on, we have becky quick. she knows warren buffett very well and gone out to omaha very well. you got off the phone with him. what did he say? >> i talked to him briefly, but he said he feels very good right notice and nothing out of the ordinary. it was only this elevated psa level that caused him to look for any of this.
he reiterated that this was a treatable position. his doctors diagnosed it and he feels comfortable with it. as he points out, he is not going to be starting the treatment until the middle of july. he said the doctors have no problem with him waiting a few months to start the treatment and in fact he said they wouldn't have minded if he waited longer on this. this is not an urgent situation necessarily as you might think. you want something to change right away. he will be starting it in the middle of july. part of the reason is because during the treatment, he will be required to not travel. he needs to be there for the treatments and he has commitments including things like the giving pledge that he is active with. sun valley that takes place at the beginning of july. he is planning on keeping all of the condominiums he made to that point before he sits down with the treatment. again, he said his doctors feel comfortable and he feels comfortable with the decision.
this shouldn't change the daily activities in any way aside from that. the annual meeting is coming up in three weeks now and he's not going to be letting the shareholders down. it should be business as usual. he keeps up a very incredible schedule and incredible pace at the shareholder meetings and expects it to be the same as he always does because he feels good about these things. asking him what else he is talking about, i did ask him if the succession plan is changing because of the situation. he said no. there is no changes to the succession plan. when we were out, cnbc was out speaking with him in omaha, i guess it was the end of february, we were out for a live show and one of the questions we asked is does the successor know who he is? he told us no. just a few minutes ago i asked him if the successor now knows who he is and he again said no. the board settled on one person
who does not know who he is. there three people and none of the three people know anything. this is business as usual. there is no change to the plan and the board is confident and knows what they will be doing in the situation. >> becky quick, thanks so much for filling us in on that. becky quick joins us on the fast line and just getting off the phone and he could make the statement about his own health, he has note alerted the successor or potential successors of who they are. >> if it's a he, it could be of these three. >> theoretically. >> i hope not and whitney hopes not. i think you are still on the phone? >> yes, i am. >> we are seeing the shares of berkshire's a's and bs lower. this could be a knee jerk reaction and we are seeing 1% declines. is that tempting to you? you just added to your position and maybe you are full, but would you at here?
>> i don't think -- this is a mid-teens position for us. it's a huge position with a 1% decline that won't trigger any reaction. anything more than that we might. partly the reaction might be that the most recent experience that investor his with a company so incredibly associated with the founder and ceo would be steve jobs and apple. i would just say one, i think warren buff set not going to be highly secretive. i think if you read the book about steve jobs, steve jobs and the company i think, they were real disclosure issues about his illness. i think warren buffett and the press release is taking the opposite of full transparency and will continue to do so. go look at apple's stock chart. during the illness and the eventual passing and it was a fantastic stock. in other words, what matters is how well the business is doing.
any apple investor who is got spooked by steve jobs's illness which turned out to be fatal left a lot of money on the table. anyone who reacts negatively to this non-news here is making a similar mistake. >> thanks so much for phoning in and sharing your thoughts on this. of t-2 partners and telling investors in a letter warren buffett is diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer and feels great. he will keep up his schedule until july until he starts treatment. >> berkshire's basis on the back of this news, it's about to get cheaper. i des agree with whitney completely on the analogy to apple. apple is selling products and buffett is not. it's all about buffett and the investment model. much different. apple is able to have somewhat of a buffer on the loss of jobs in the product.
>> would you buy into that comparison? >> i'm not sure. i don't know what to make of it yet. >> okay. we have to take a break, wu we are following all of after hours action including warren buffett. intel and ibm are all big movers. much more fast straight ahead. [ male announcer ] while others are content to imitate, we'll continue to innovate. the lexus rx. why settle for a copy when you can own the original? see your lexus dealer.
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hathaway shares and feels good about the company. we want to bring in the sea breeze partners. you say and you are long. let's put that out there and you disagree with whitney. why? >> at the halftime yesterday, i discussed at length when michelle was subbing for you. berkshire to me was the best way to playhousing. it owned 7.6% and the $5 billion in bank of america. it was exposed to housing by the homes and benjamin moore and the shore industries and wholly owned. i calculated that the company was trading at a mere 28% discount and i took cuts. i took haircuts greater than whitney did on the investments and applied to the non-investment income. the problem with this announcement as i see it, it's something that karen was discussing. the calculation of the company's
intrinsic value was impacted. the reward is reduced. >> so even though -- we knew that already. shouldn't that be taken into consideration when you are calculating any valuation? the fact that we didn't know the succe successor. >> we didn't know yesterday he was ill. now we know he is ill. we have to adjust the valuations. in other words, that premium value accorded in the market place by the oracle's presence must be reduced. there is a big unknown there. >> he is 82 years old and in good health. he could live for a long time under that scenario. he could also live for a long time. that time frame could be reduced because of the diagnosis and
therefore the premium comes offer sooner? >> yes because he is irreplaceable. the fact that he has begun to delegate investment collection to two others. >> doug, it's bk. you did your valuation and you are talking about an 82-year-old ceo and one of the best investors of all time. what discount did you take for the fact that he is 82 years old? >> i took an 8% and whitney took 100% of the cash and investment value of the company. because of his age, i was more conservative and i took an 8% haircut. >> what would you take now. >> closer to 12% is representative of the average closed end publicly traded equity fund. in addition the multiplier that whitney used against pretax income was ten times i was using a more conservative. i would reduce that too because no longer will buffett -- there
will be this question mark and will he be around to do these wonderful goldman sacks and bank of america deals when markets are in distress. the answer is we don't know. >> right. >> at this point though, you are long on berkshire. what are you doing? >> sold a little stock in the active market. it's down only modestly, about 1.5%. i just wanted to revisit all my calculations. i think it's the conservative thing to do. i too have an outside position. not anywhere close to what whitney had. i had a more conservative intrinsic value. they close around $120,000. whitney's estimate was about 178,000. before this announcement, my estimate was 150,000. my guess is it goes 140,000 to
145,000, an upside of only 15% which is not as attractive as it was yesterday. >> is you so much for your time and analysis. this is the story we will continue to monitor and cover from all angles throughout the show. stay tuned. we have to get to after hours action. we have a lot of movers. ibm moving lower and let's get into the earnings report and bring in sha woo. it's great to have you with us. are you concerned here about the revenue line and it came in short and growth had been slowing in the prior quarter. >> yeah. so revenue came in light slightly light, but they beat the earnings. the software business continues to grow robustly and that's really the key to the story. continued margin expansion and continued growth in software. >> for you want to knock holes in this, they are disappointed the backlog was down.
2% year over year. does that stick out? this is a company we loved, but the market is selling off. is that the one thing that sticks out to you? >> that was the other slight negative. the backlog was down a little bit sequentially to 139 billion from 141. keep in mind some of this is seasonal. it is a tough market. sometimes frankly these signings shift. it is a short-term blip, but we think over the longer hall ibm will be a share kwaner versus the peers. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. do you think that if you look at the multiple, it had a nice fantastic run and they probably are a little bit of a victim of their own success. trading at the low mid-teens multiple. it seems like the other names in the mission tech space are more attractive and if you have not
infinite, there better be places to go. >> that's a fair point. the stock is trading around 12 to 13 times. it is a premium. it's a slight premium to apple. the reason is ibm is a strong executer. everyone is chasing in terms of services and software. they are meeting in that regard. going back to your question, we like hp for that reason. that stock is washed out and trading at six times earnings. we think it's interesting here. other people are looking at dell. dell traded at 9 to ten times and we think less interesting. >> we have to leave it there. thank you for your time. shaw wu of ag. hp and oracle posted. >> i am nodding in agreement. i bought hp last week specifically as a hedge against potentially a bad ibm court.
i don't like management's commentary talking about the currency head wind that they are getting out of europe. that will remain with them in the upcoming quarter and they are talking about global business services. the struggles in the public sector. we heard that before. it looks as though japan continues to be a head wind. a long position i had for ibm for a long time. we will have to take a look at that. i am glad that i have the ph. they come out of ibm and go in on the notion it will be washed out. >> we're will monitor that. ibm and yahoo and intel as well and all the developments of stage prostate cancer. we are all over the stories here on fast. wanna know the difference between a trader and an elite trader?
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according to the signs, ford is having some sort of big tire event. i just want to confirm a few things with fiona. how would you describe the event? it's big. no,i mean in terms of savings how would you sum it up? big in your own words, with respect to selection, what would you say? big okay, let's talk rebates mike, they're big they're big get $100 rebate, plus the low price tire guarantee during the big tire event. so, in other words, we can agree that ford's tire event is a good size? big big and now i build them. i am a bigger is better kind of guy. i absolutely love building locomotives. i knew i wanted to design locomotives from when i was very young.
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>> let's get more on the intel conference who has been on the call. what's the latest? >> a few updates. >> a customer will shift the first smart phone. talking about the impact of floods you saw in q4. that impact continued in q1 and q2, what they are shipping reflects the demand of the inventory and replenishment in q3. stronger as we report the end of the year. that's for ultra book marketing and ivy bridge, that's their server chip will be the fastest champing product ever.
it will cross 50% later this fall in terms of what it's been doing. finally the server chip, the first month of romly orders was twice as big and demand is strong for the new server product. >> in terms of the ultra book, they said there was evidence that consumers are going to these things. the knock on this is this is an expensive product category. >> it's not that expensive of a product category necessarily. this is just mainly flash in most of these ultra books defining them. this is not an increase over what they planned to spend. they said they were going to spend quite a bit they said in closing bell he expects 40% of designs by the end of the year to be ultra books. if for some reason they reject
those, they can look to the mac book as being a success pioneering the category. >> thanks so much. we will go back to you if you have developments on the conference wall. we have to check on shares of yahoo up by about 2% spiking on earnings in line revenues. the question here is what is the strategy. is there more details on the strategy that scott smith laid out earlier? he said he would split yahoo and focus and consumer and focus website. a regional ad relationships and technology assets that includes the ad platform. >> i thought it was interesting that they said advertising had done fairly well. the one knock on yahoo has been what are they? should they be split up and is the sum of the parts greater than the whole? they have momentum and growth. i'm not in yahoo and not buying it. i wouldn't buy with guy's money. >> an excellent point by you,
but i would continue to say this was a good quarter. you can knock some holes in it, but as far as yahoo, this is a huge win and the stock will push through 16. i'm in a camp that said risk reward. you risk $14 for 20.5 or 21. even with the move from where we are now, i think it's interesting. >> you have to like the commentary on the conference call talking about a simple transaction structure for anything he does. that's what investors want. maybe for the moment the downside is limited. >> he would think about it. >> i thought he looked like dunn from best buy. >> it distinguishes him. >> they are coming back. >> not too many people with that mustache. >> thankfully. >> there is a reason. >> we're have to take a break and monitor all the after hours action and continue to monitor the story from all angles. stay tuned. great shot.
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hathaway. they are down by 1.7% off the after hours session lows and off of the close on the session. the headline is warren buffett disclosed he is diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer and his course of treatment will begin come july, the annual shareholder's meeting will go on as planned and right now there no other incidents of cancer. shares are down on the uncertainty over who the succ s successor may be. we will continue to monitor as the hour goes on. we want to head out and do fast money portfolio. nat gas prices tumble hitting a low in the session. the next guest is taking a look at the industry that is benefiting from the slide. william manages over $16 billion and joins us now from boston. it's great to have you with us. you say this will spur a rebirth of u.s. manufacturing. how so? >> definitely.
it's almost an oxymoron to think of the u.s. as a major competitor in energy. some of the companies and chemical plants and steel are huge beneficiaries. one of the ways we found to play it are the big wids. like west lake chemical. they take feed stock and convert it to plastics. the cost goes down while pricing has been solid and up. you get huge growth. >> sorry part of this that you need to see it come back or just enough that the components like the chemicals that go into things cost less and therefore the margins are greater for the companies? >> i think you need manufacturing to come back as well. that's what you are starting to see. it was all sought sourcing to china and india. you see companies come back here. the wage delta narrowed and the feed stocks are so inexpensive and several companies announce
new plants in the u.s. and we have an advantage for quite sometime. >> it's brian kelly. in these companies, are you looking for companies that sell just to the u.s. and you keep it inhouse or are you looking for more of a global growth type of rebound? >> right now i think the u.s. is the best place to be. for example, another name we own is packaging core. 85% of the businesses and boxes for food and staples and the other 15%. that was all lost. i think it will start coming back. the boxes are made to move stuff here. i think the global growth that worked great is fine. i think emerging markets are growing. i think it's much more attractive in the u.s. this is where you want to be. this is a renaissance in the u.s. and a lot of industrial companies tied to both housing and manufacturing are great risk rewards from here. much more so than the global growth. >> one of the names you like is
uri. is that because the equipment is used to redevelop capacity in the u.s.? >> they reported tonight which was nice to say. at least they beat it. i look like a fool right now. uri is one of the biggest leasing companies in heavy and construction equipment. they benefit from both. a potential housing recovery and resurgence and manufacturing. it's a levered play at the beginning of an upcycle. i don't have it in detail, but pricing was up 16% and unit volume up 18%. that's good stuff. uri continues to be a story going forward. >> stocks is up 10%. >> i couldn't agree more. we talked about the only way to play nat gas has been with the chemicals. even like a ppg that nobody talks about. jimmy cramer talked about it and the ng wins are having difficulty. the stock made an all time high and the chemical space, people are going to wake up and real ice they are still cheap.
>> the other is dow chemical and a lost good things happening there. their cost to goods because nat gas came way down. >> you are also a bull on truckers. why is that? >> a lot of reasons we thought housing was bombing. we can't analyze the companies and speculate, but the derivative plays and power cools and construction and et cetera, that's how we want to play it. i was going to say if housing comes back, transportation and freight say huge beneficiary. that's a class act and 60% is intermotal. that's the most cost-effective way to move goods and they are the best at it. we like that as well. >> thank you so much for your time. we appreciate you joining us. from westfield capital again, this is one of the picks up and 10%. this is the thing we have been on for quite sometime in terms of playing the derivatives on
> more information about survivability. what warren buffett has been diagnosed with. the correspond ept with nbc news. this looks like and seems like it is a survivable cancer? >> indeed. the odds are overwhelming that he will live to die of some other cause. most men his age and that shows an emergency to it. a lot of men in their late or mid 70s do not getrostate
cancer. it's slow growing in stage one. they will take a long, long time. they will threaten a man's life. 20 or 30 years and most people 75 or 76 years old. >> for an yao 82-year-old man in good health, what's the life expectancy? >> the general expectancy for a man is 79 so he exceeded that. a lot of people live to much longer these days. we have the exceptions because life expectance is an average. he seems healthy in every way and said he has no reason to doubt that. >> he has said that there no other incidents of cancer in his body. it matches what is slow growing. what are the chances that there
any odds that this cancer can metastasize and how rare it would be. >> that would be very rare. if you take a man in his 80s and think something like that might happen in 15 years, you add up the possibilities and see nothing is terribly afraid of. his prognosis is excellent as he said. he feels great and it's not something he would have felt. it was detected on a blood test and then a needle biopsy with a cancer in the tissue in one part of the prostate. most men over 70 years old will have evident of prostate cancer anyway. it's not even that unusual that if you go looking for it, you will find it. the word cancer is frightening for all the reasons we know, but prostate cancer in a man lick this is a very unthreatening condition. >> thanks for joining us.
we do want to bring in dr. andrew li who is an oncologist at the cancer center. i don't want to put it lightly, but if you had to get cancer, this might be the cancer you want. >> melissa, it's somewhat difficult to ascertain based on the available information even though we are thankful that prostate cancer can be caught early and most instances. we have to keep in mind it's the second leading cause of cancer deaths in men and the stage doesn't give the whole picture. we have no idea of how high the individual's psa was at presentation that was prog gnostic as well as the gleason score. even though the results are good, there other factors that need to be considered. >> he did say and this is some of the information we know, his doctors, there was no urgency in terms of when he started treatment. he will start a two-month course
of treatment in july. does that give an indication as to the condition he is in and the kind of cans they're he can delay treatment for a period of months? >> it's difficult to know. we are obviously not involved with his care or the case. depending on the comfort level of the fogs that is treating him, they have the information in front of them. certainly for a wide range of prostate cancers delaying treatment out to about three months has been considered okay. there other men even with stage one cancers that delay treatment in excess of three months can affect the prognosis. >> it is a leading cause of death for men and at the same time what are the chances that based on what you know of stage one prostate cancer actually being the cause for death? >> in mr. buffett's case? >> in men overall.
>> overall it's as this second leading cause of cancer death behind lung cancer. lung cancer is ahead of it and colorectal cancer is third and catching up. one of the things is there competing risk factors. for example, i think in general cardiac care for cardiac conditions improved over the last decade or two and that denominator in terms of longevity has been stretched out and take mr. buffett's case for example he is in his early 80s and relatively fit depending on his genetic profile and his lifestyle. we try to judge people by their physiologic age rather than chronologic age. we don't want to be cavalier with the decision making. >> thanks so much for your expertise on the subject matter. andrew lee from md anderson. stay tuned. we will continue to monor the action in a lot of other rumors
the teacher that comes to mind for me is my high school math teacher, dr. gilmore. i mean he could teach. he was there for us, even if we needed him in college. you could call him, you had his phone number. he was just focused on making sure we were gonna be successful. he would never give up on any of us.
>> csx up by almost 3%. the increase was a better than expected quarter all-around. this will be a mover in tomorrow's session. mark it down. sunday july 29th, rbc is teaming up with memorial sloan to hold the annual decathlon for children's cancer research. it raised more than $500,000 and this year's goal is 1.5 million. joining us now is the coceo and new york jets offensive lineman to tell us about the very important event. great to have you with us. great to see you. you are probably one of the largest guests we have ever had on the show. in terms of the event, it's like wall street's decathlon. >> wall street is a very competitive place. we want to channel that competition into fund-raising and no better cause for the kids onicology unit. >> i am told by guy to call you
brick. brick, how did you get involved with this cause. >> dave maloney started this in 2009 and when i heard the idea of a deckathalon and working out, it reed me of a combine. almost the olympics. also this was a great cause. you are raising money for cancer research. i was all in. i was definitely all in. >> it was a great cause, but will it affect the play on the field. will you lose weight and get bounced around? >> i am not allowed to participate. i think my background and understanding and so forth gave me a good understanding of what's going on and the events they are having. dips and pull ups, that's all me. i can do that. >> guy does that every morning. >> i can see it. >> i'm down to 202. >> you are getting less thick. >> holmes is on his way out and they may bring me in. i'm kidding.
it is a great cause. home people do you think will participate in the effect? >> when it's capped at 150 people, the idea is getting the support around the people. the 150 people do different effects focused around skills and endurance and speed, etc. then what we want is that competitive edge for the fund-raising side. the minimum requirement is $3,000. we hope you will get a number of people that raise well over $50,000 and build it up from there. >> how do you stand out for a lot of athletic charity events on wall street and how do you market yourself as the event to be a part of? >> the others involve lots of people. this is a small number that a lot of people get involved with. this is defining wall street's best athlete and as i said, it's a competitive place. >> thanks for swinging by. again, the date is sunday, july 29th. sign up.