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tv   Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo  CNBC  April 20, 2012 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT

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we have generally good news with the ipos that they don't go through all of them. infobox, they had a terrific day overall. and there's the "closing bell." >> welcome to the "closing bell." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. bob pisani will join me in just a bit. thanks to solid earnings due to general electric whether the stock is cheap. >> and here's how we look at the dow jones well off the highs.
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and we came not just down on apple, the s&p did end the day and week in positive territory. >> let's talk about the highlights of the week. you're in the anchor chair today because bill is off. you watch the markets. i'm going to disagree with you. i want to blame it all on apple. >> it's more wobbly on apple. i can tell you the minute apple started trading over 30 million shares, that was six or seven trading sessions. trading 22, 2 4r4. earnings have been strong. retail sales were good. the ipo action was good. i see positives out there. i'm not worried apple. the housing starts were a
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disappointment and i know everybody wants to blame bank of america, but there's not a lot of loan growth that is out there. there are separate issues that concern me a little bit. i'm worried about the fact that we have a couple weeks of very choppy economic stories. that will crystallize how i feel on housing. >> you talk about the earnings beat and indeed they have been beats but they have been lower expectations. the year over year number is not good on all of these companies. in the end, you're going to see real growth over time, right? >> the revenue has been a notable revenue growth and it's been spread kalted on cost cutting and these companies have become sufficient at manager resources. if we actually ever get notable top line growth --
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>> we'd be off to the races. >> american corporations are in better shape than they have been in decades. >> joining us, live from the cme, one stock option. hi, guys. good to see you. is this about apple's dominance on both of the major averages at the french elections? >> it's a little bit of both. we talked about the influence of apple and there is some ability to that. in the short-term, first on everyone's minds, next week we have apple coming out in the middle of next week and i'm looking at caterpillar. that will give you a good indication of how the industrials are doing. that seems to be where the focus is at the moment. >> the fomc meeting.
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if apple disappoints, i don't know what things are going to look like. john, talk to me about what is going on with oil. higher today s that going to be influenced by the items that we're talking about for next week? >> the fomc is going to have a big influence. the in the press conference we're going to see it revised lower. i think that at least that rhetoric can have a downward impact on oil and gold and silver. not rallying with the risk on sentiment, it's a dynamic since qe 2 began. >> let's go over to the cme. >> earnings are very important. we've been exceeding in most of
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what we've seen so far. it's setting the path for us to go higher and the issue right now is the dollar. the dollar is at three-week lows, stealthily moving lower. bond prices are up near the highs. we have yields on the ten-year below 2. that's veryxd supportive. fomc hanging in the wind. that could ratchet the dollar down. all of the resources over my shoulder, the commodities, they have not participated in the last rally. there is corn, wheat, cocoa, cotton, and so we could see another leg up and i look at crude oil as a barometer. that's solid positive move and shows the ability to pay and risk is back on. >> guys, thank you so much. warren, john, and allen. the dow and s&p closed higher
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but not after a roller coaster ride for stocks, kayla tausche has our stat check. kayla? >> a reversal of roles as far as sectors went this week. consumer staples underperformed recently. this week up as much as 2%. led investors back into the defensive sectors. consumer staples just up over 2% and s&p up the same amount. in consumer staples, let's look at walgreens, up nearly 9% for the week. a few headlines that we're responsible. also the gains coming as walgreens paid $7.9 million for sin i investors there. we've been talking about tech. tech set to close the second down week.
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currently the only large cap s&p sector in the red for the week. and working in second consecutive weekly loss, that is following a 14-week winning streak for tech. largely lead by apple. apple, the best example of this reversal of roles, having the worst week since july 2010. also set to close down for its second straight week, down for 9.5% during that period. perhaps a normal correction going to earnings. everyone is going to be watching that next week. bob, back to you. >> thank you very much, kayla. all of the major industries posting gains but they are still not out of the red for the month of april. europe has become a focal point, again, for the markets. how should investors position themselves for the road ahead? >> chief market analyst. guys, good to see you. james suddenly here we go again. moves day after day after day for the last week or so. what is going on?
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>> welcome to 2011 all over again. right now there's uncertainty around spain and the problem with the market right now is there's clear solution as to what can happen in spain. and the imf comes in, maybe not, to be determined this weekend. and so we're worried that nothing is going to happen. at first it gets worse and then we find a solution. that's what we're worried about. >> i think the big story is going to be the fomc. are they going to open the door somehow to qe 3 or change their posture a little bit? >> it will be a modified version of monetary easing but it will still be more stimulation coming from the federal reserve, from world central banks, and to disagree why it won't be 2011,
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where we're seeing a correction in the summertime, the monetary ease is in tact. europe is better than it was a year ago. it's better than it was a year ago and important for stock investors is the fact that cash flow margins are still improving. the high-yield bond market which gives me a good signal for the equity markets is still improving and valuations are still compelling as an equity investor, maybe a 5 or 7% correction. we already had one last week. but nothing like 2011. >> so what are you recommending that people do? what should they buy or not buy? >> well, i think it's an environment where you still want to lean towards the cyclical side. there's a private label company that does loyalty marketing. that company is doing very well as credit quality is improving. one of the things that the stocks that i'm talking about today, interactive data corp,
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the parent company for, all of these companies are in the small to mid-cap area and i think there's still opportunity to be found in that pocket of the market as it improves. >> what is your take on the choppy economic numbers? is it all weather? >> it gave us the strong first quarter. you're going to see payback along the second quarter, maybe into the third quarter. you're probably going to get some hints from the fed that there may be qe 3 out there. they won't say it outright but they will do it june 1. if they didn't, i think it will be a big negative. so the economy is doing, if you had to do give it a grade, it's not an a, a b, or a c. it's an f. >> kind of bumping along there. >> i hate to talk about this constantly but i'm still flabbergasted that apple seems
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to control in some ways the dow jones industrial average even though it's not a member of it and it's just moved the nasdaq so dramatically day after day. are you concerned about it or is it undue influence? >> at 12 times earnings, it represents potential for investors. the one thing that would make you nervous, the last time i looked there were 50 analysts, about 46 buys and maybe four holds. that's one of the question marks with apple today. >> two positive? >> the stock does not appear to be overpriced on a fundamental basis. >> on a free cash flow basis it's still pretty compelling without being a positive or negative on apple. >> jim, what about the earnings situation? i know everybody was worried we're only going to have 1% growth. now we're only one quarter of the way into earnings season. we're at 4% growth for the quarter. it's getting a little bit
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better. >> it's getting a little bit better. color me pessimistic. we're talking about 3 or 4% growth. if you want to talk apple, you take apple out of it. you talk a whole percentage point off of the growth numbers. and then you're down to 2 or 3% on a year to year basis. >> that is -- >> why are you knocking it off? >> that's a big influence on the earnings, one whole percent of the s&p. so if you take that out and give the s&p 499, you'd be at 2 or 3% great. there is no earnings after inflation over the last year. yeah, 80% of the companies are beating expectation. >> they are. >> but since the end of the great recession in 2009, the average is 77%. so we're right on average right now. >> note to standard & poor's, do not take apple out of the s&p
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500. up next, is there a change of leadership. >> if you drop your netflix account in the last year, would you rejoin their service? send a tweet t to @cnbcclosingbell. plus, all eyes will be on apple next tuesday. should you buy this recently beaten down stock? of course we're first in business worldwide. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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we've been blessed with incredible subscriber growth. 7 million to 9 million to 12 million, we keep on growing and it's driven by this phenomenal value. $9 a month for unlimited streaming a year and a half
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julia boorstin is it going to breakdown the company headwinds and whether they are justified. julia? >> well, netflix after the report on monday, all eyes are on the domestic subscribers. this is considered the key indicator of whether the company can rebound from the disastrous price hike and split from the dvd rental and to grow 21%. but earnings per share are expected to swing to a loss of 27 cents per share and there are a slew of challenges, including costs for streaming content along with bandwidth and they say unfairly rival and now it's
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facing awfully big rivals, including amazon and comcast and many of those services undercutting netflix on price. and dvd business and international growth and all the more important growth. that's important number to wash and what netflix is going to change the business model and we'll see what the street is saying. >> joining us is the equity analyst. research analyst with battle research. michael, let me start with you. you say netflix might be worth $80 a share right now we are at 105 i think we closed at today. can you explain that? >> correct. i think the fair value of the
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stock is $80. i think the stock is overvalued. last year i thought the stock was a lot more overvalued when it was well in over 200 to $300 but at this point i would not buy the stock. i think it's worth 80. >> why? >> i think they face a the lo of competition in their domestic streaming business. i think that the entrenched cable business a i question how that is. >> that's serious. we just had it a minute ago. >> let me ask you, ben. we are talking about the dvds here. i happen to like the dvd because what i like to watch, you can't get it on streaming and they seem to think that we are second-class citizens. is dvd essentially gone?
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are they going to write us off? >> it's an interesting conundrum. and with the price increases and folks who live in rural areas that don't have access to red box and. >> they are negative on the stock. what if they replace green hastings? would that do it or is this a business model that can't be repaired? >> well, i think the business model is challenged. i think read hastings is a bit overdone. i agree he made some bad decisions last year. people are calling for his ouster and the question i would
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have is is taking over for reid hastings. >> is amazon, for example, a really true competition? how is there streaming service doing? >> well, amazon, of course, doesn't break out their numbers for their streaming business but there's no question that they are a significant threat. the movies and tv shows that they stream are available for free to anyone that has an amazon prime subscription and like you said before about the dvd content, the classic tv shows, comcast has used as re-runs, these are unpopular as well. so they do give netflix a run for their money. it's interesting that netflix is reporting the night before amazon reports. >> julia? >> and i just want to point out that what's really going to be interesting is not the
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competition that is seeing right now but amazon is breaking out that streaming service as a stand-alone service, or at least some speculation about this, as a stand-alone service separate. once they start marketing that separately, once they rise in option launches and we also have the comcast option, comcast is offering to subscribers and relationships with hollywood and having a serious competition significance from real players. >> julia, how is lilly hammer? wasn't netflix created tv show that they were going to be ala hbos? how did that finally gl down? >> reed hastings sees it as his competition and netflix is
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getting people to get that original content in the same way as people would subscribe to hbo in order to watch shows like the sopranos. >> did it work? >> they don't break out ratings. they say they can't work out ratings that way. i did interview ted, who handles netflix's original content, they consider it a success but say there's no way to see how to really watch it. >> we've got to go, guys. are they going to be able to continue to negotiate the deals necessary for people to stay loyal customers with them or are they going to be priced out of the market somehow? >> the boston red sox, for example, can afford to overpay for players because they have no competition in new england. but netflix, as was pointed out, as a ton of competition and i think it will be very risky in terms of what they might have to shell out for new content. >> okay. >> guys, good to see you. julia, thank you.
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>> apple has closed lower for eight of the past nine sessions. is the stock looking cheap ahead of next week's earnings? we have the trade next. >> plus, he spent decades solving sovereign debt problems. bill rhodes tells us what europe needs to do to solve its current crisis. zap technology. departure. hertz gold plus rewards also offers ereturn-- our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage and zap ! you're outta there ! we'll e-mail your receipt in a flash, too. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.
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welcome bag back. apple is down from the record intraday and closing highs. the tech sector taking a slump. referbed getti riverbed getting with seven downgrades. also encouraged by the upcoming product releases, specifically, windows 8. back over to you. >> thank you, seema. got to talk apple here. they have numbers out next week. this week, conflicting reports from the analysts' side. piper jaffray muting concerns but the stock weekly decline when the company reports next week. >> bullish on the company with a
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1001 dollar price target. >> thank you. >> you're famous now. let's assume they come in with expectations, what does the stock do? >> there's a decline. apple's guidance were down 30 and we're looking for $10.06. we're i think there's upside. >> your number, not the consensus. >> so historically, apple does trade off around earnings and if you go back into the january when they reported december quarter, it was an absolute blowout and the stock only went up $25. so generally it does trade sloppy after earnings. >> after this 10% correction that we see today, i assume you're telling people to buy? >> i like it at this level. it's trading at nine times ex-cash. apple's market share is
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extremely and on the horizon, china mobile, apple tv and iphone 5, i think it's going to be a blockbuster this fall. >> jon fortt, what is driving the stock? is it the phones or computers? what do you think is pushing investors into it? >> i think it's worry that is driving the stock right now and i don't think investors are necessarily being pushed into it. i tell you one thing that concerns me, i don't make stock calls but i crunch a lot of numbers. they gave a number of 3.2 million units. verizon's number tracks pretty well with what apple's number ends up being with a percentage. i end up with an iphone number around 28 million units. now, granted, you know, that's just a rough number and iphone
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tends to be more than half of revenue. analysts consensus is around $36 billion in revenue. apple could come around 34 billion, which some people would see as a disappointment. i'll lay out a couple of things. one, with the iphone, you have a tough year over year comp. with ipad, it's a tough quarter for them because you had a period of weeks when people knew that there was a new ipad coming. you exactly what it was and whether it was good or not good. the analysts have gotten optimistic. we'll see how it turns out. >> brian, john is 28 million on the iphone sales. does that jive with your universe above or below that? >> i would say this. we're at 29.6 million in iphones. i feel very comfortable with
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that. i think there's upside. just keep in mind, the iphone was launched in the u.s. in early october, mid-october. you had a lot of countries, five different phases of iphone launch and that really came into even january with 22 countries added. they phase these out. >> i don't think they are is it the phone or computer. >> discontinued momentum, it's half their business. number two, it's these new -- ipad is still only 2 years old. continuing to gain momentum and also new market opportunities. it's a combination of all. this is still a market share gain. >> the customer satisfaction ratings for apple are in cloud
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coo-coo land. i'll buy the iphone 5 because that's what iphone people do. they buy the iphone. is there a . >> i gave sort of a pessimistic picture just now about where analysts estimates are based on the quarter. i did that not just based on one quarter but, yes, their brent loyalty is very strong. we're going to see their conference this summer a push on i-cloud, a battle for the cloud between apple and google and face book. they've got a lot of strong products and brand loyalty. >> jon fortt and brian, thank you. appreciate your thoughts. from the fed to home sales, we'll round up everything on the economic and business calendars that could impact your investments next week. plus, is china headed for a soft or hard landing?
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what kind of impact are we going to see when it comes to europe's financial recovery? bill rhodes weighs in next. [ horn honks ] hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important. well, both are important. let's be clear. they are but this is important too. [ man ] the receivables. [ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better for xerox to help manage their finance processing. so they can focus on keeping the world moving. with xerox, you're ready for real ness.
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>> announcer: europe's future hangs in the balance. as the eu and the french head to thlls for the first round of presidential voting. can nicolas sarkozy pull off the race? we're talking to a man who has guided asia and latin america out of their financial crisis in decades past. and we're pleased to have onset with us william rhodes, former senior vice president at citi. he's also written "banker of the world." >> the french election is this weekend. we could see sarkozy gone and
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this new anti-socialist take over. if he wins, do we see europe falling backwards? >> the first round is the one coming up on sunday and then the two main candidates, which are sarkozy, has got to be working with the other candidates to decide where they are going to put their votes and one of the key areas is going to be where the votes go. their vote is in the extreme right. do they go to him or not go to him. >> and if that happens, people are worried that they are going to start abandoning austerity or interest rates are going to rise dramatically as a result. is that possible? or is this guy going to fall in line eventually? >> i think that he's going to work on a couple of things. he's going to increase taxes on the so-called wealthy. i think that he's going to push growth more against austerity
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but at the end of the day i think he will go along with the fiscal pact. >> okay. imf. right after this you're heading to the imf meetings, christine lagarde announced they got more than 300 billion. they said she wanted 500 billion. >> i think she's going to pull off over 400 billion. she really wanted 500. i think she needs more money. not just for europe but north africa. i think the more the better. i mentioned that i thought that the firewalls and stability fund ought to be a trillion euro. so i think this will help. at the end of the day, the europeans have to do more than just have firewalls. they've got to do their fiscal situation and see that their
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banks and the ltros are doing the proper lending and growth is a big issue here. >> speaking of growth, you spent so much time in china. you just got back from there. people are worried about falling below 7% when it comes to their gdp. >> to me anything above 7 is a soft landing. the former premier of china used to say, 7% is a key. because you get below 7 and you can't get the job growth you need for the immigrants coming in from western china. then you get social tension. i always listen to that. i think growth is between 7 and 8%. >> last question. argentina. we weren't going to talk about this. but now that we've got the time. christina kirshner, what is she
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thinking? >> well, we've got to see how this plays out vis-a-vis how it will pay off. i think it's a risky strategy but if you look at the history of argentina, you've seen it happen before. >> it's not surprising at all to you? >> no. >> not at all. they are doomed, then, aren't they? they are never going to grow. >> it does not send a good signal to foreign investment, that's for sure. >> yeah. >> let's see how this plays out. but it's not a good thing for the growth in the economy, that's for sure. >> bill rhodes, thank you for joining us. >> thank you, michelle. it's been two years since the bp oil spill. bertha? >> bp says last year was about recovery. this year is going to be about delivering on milestones.
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we look at that coming up. i'm jon fortt and this is tech check. ipads, galaxy tabs, kindle fires, tablets are taking the electronic market by storm and there's a promising niche market, tablets for toddlers. there is also new this week, da vinci tab 2. >> it's the best technology, safest technology, safest application. >> reporter: da vinci offers age-appropriate android apps. >> they are at the curious stage so they are learn about shapes, about noises. at the older stage they can learn about emotions. so we have gains like that. kids can paint, sing along, read
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interactive stories. many have tempered glass so they are tough to break. da vin tea even comes with a camera and wi-fi just because mom or dad wants to surf the web. that's your tech check. i'm jon fortt. hey, heard any updates on the game? i think it's final seconds, ohh, shoots a three, game over. so two seconds ago... hey mr. and mrs. harris, where's kevin? say hi kevin. mom, put me down. put...the phone...down. hey guys. did you hear... the choys had their baby? so 29 seconds ago. well we should get them a gift. [ choys ] thanks for the gift! [ amy and rob ] you're welcome! you're welcome! [ male announcer ] get it fast with at&t. the nation's largest 4g network. covering 2000 more 4g cities and towns than verizon. at&t. ♪ on december 21st polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space. which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd,
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today marks the second anniversary of the deepwater horizon oil spill. how much has it impacted bp's bottom line in bertha coombs? >> bp has made an amazing recovery but still has a long way. back on april 2010, bp's valuation stood at $190 million before that night of the he can ploegs. it wiped out over $100 billion over the two months that the oil kept flowing and some analysts were writing bp's owe bit ware. but the company agreed to set up a trust fund, suspended the dividend and raised cash and it was clear that the gaffe-prone tony hayward was on his way out. just a month later, the fatal
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well was capped. the market cap recovered to about $137 billion by year end in 2010 after posting a full-year loss of $3.7 billion that year. by the end of 2011, while shares remained flat, the company had positive a 23 billion -- disposed of $23 billion in assets, resumed paying a dividend and returned to profitability. the turn around helped an awful lot by high oil prices. >> >> impacted it by $400 million, that's a lot of money. so we have oil prices up 40 or $50 and, you know, you're talking about tens and billions of dollars. >> the company's annual report anticipates that oil prices will stay above $100 and bob dudley is promising investors that this year is going to be a year of what he calls milestone
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delivery, saying that the company expects to have eight rigs in the gulf of mexico by year's end and $20 billion fund this year, they will be able to raise net cash flow by 50% in the next two years and fund more exploration and higher dividends. some analysts say bp now presents an attractive value with a settlement reach with plaintiffs this month. you can read more about the bold bear case on the stock on my piece on michelle? >> we will do just that. thank you very much, bertha. next week is jam packed with more economic and earnings data. but the biggest market movers could happen this weekend. details, coming up. l in one acc. keep watch on the markets. or use our exclusive tools to help find ideas. it's powerful, easy-to-use technology for trading stocks, options, and futures.
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earnings from apple, and at&t. and the fed kicks off its two-day policy meeting. wednesday, earnings from boeing and caterpillar. thursday the laters read on jobless claims, and earns from
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exxon mobil, starbucks and friday, the latest read on first-quarter gdp, and that's what to watch for next week. a packed schedule on the earnings and economic front, plus an imf meeting gets under way this weekend. what could have the most impact? chris receipts her, and kevin car ron, the market strategist over at stifel nicolaus. let me star start with you, chris, i think the big market mover next week will be the fomc meeting. the choppy economic data, and the question is how will they approach this? what's your take? >> i think the fed has remained accommodative. it's expressed that, that it's going to be that way for quite some time. i don't expect much change in the language they have had out there. i'm sure the hopefuls will be
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looking for qe-3, but i think we're going through a period of healing, it's slow, but i think i'm more focus the on what companies are saying in their earnings calls. >> how about you, kitchen? >> it seems what we have heard from bernanke, it's still too early to take the training wheels off. he's almost got cover. see, the economy dat isn't as good. >> i'm quite certain that we're going to hear the word goldilocks come out, but what you've got is a perfect mix for the fed. they have weaka on the margin, a less than robust employment report last month, some of the housing data has been a bit weaker, but that's perfect. at the same time, we have not had any surge in inflation. bond market is pricing in a very modest 2.25% inflation longer term, so i think they'll have
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the opportunity to sit back and say there is no inflationary threat presently, and we still have a long way to go towards recovery, so we're going to stay accommodative, and that will be really the message from that meeting. >> cry, how do you feel about the earnings situation so far? 4%, we're down about a quarter of the stock's reporting, not bad, not great, what's your take here? >> i think it's been a mixed earnings season. i'm very much focused on the guidance. it seems as though everybody is looking to a good second half. what i would be focused on, in that i do small and mid cap companies primarily is what are the derivative calls off the large companies that have announced, one verizon this week, next week it will be apple, texas instruments. so i'll be looking to see how healthy their product lines are and where their cap ex may be going and what companies we would be looking to invest in off those earnings call. >> can you give us names now?
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or do you want to wait until after the apple results are out? >> we like a company called esio, they sell equipment that goes into the manufacturing side of a lot of the products. we also like the romly ramp that's coming occupy intel. one company we like on that side is emulex. so there is grout in technology. you have to pick the areas that have good long trajectories. are you worried about the choppy economic data. what do you guys think? are we in for choppier data? is it weather-related? >> most of the data we've been looking at is moving in the right direction. the last couple weeks, notably the employment report was weak, but you can't make too much out of a single data point. overall your guests brought up a very good appoint in the earnings. what we need to see is an
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acceleration in private investment. it will be nice to see some shovel in the ground kind of expenditures to move from what has been a largely government-supported recovery to now a private sector supported expansion. we're just at that point where we're beginning to see some of that. it would be nice to see that expressed in the earnings numbers as we go through the rest of the season. >> thank you guys. have a great weekend. coming up next, we'll recap today's big mark rally. >> plus what it will take for us to rejoin netflix. we'll be right back. medicare. it doesn't cover everything.
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so here's some of your responses. james tweeted us, netflix would have to fire reed hastings, his cocky, arrogant attitude is why i left. wow. it's entertainment not an oil company. eddy said i dropped them to get my back, simple better content, that is the only problem i have. dave tweeted, i dropped netflix, was the movie catalog is just too stale. amazon prime is much better. thank you again for all twur tweets. we love hearing from you, and
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continue to tweet us your views. cocky and arrogant, okay for oil companies, but not netflix. we have a problem there. >> interesting insight. before we go, let's recap the stock market. the s&p 500 ticking up six cents, rising on the back of strength of utilities. we're getting no help from techs, 1.5 -- fell 1.5% this week. nasdaq composite losing ground for a third consecutive week, the longest weekly losing streak since november of last year. that does it for "closing bell." the thing i want to point out, next weeks, apple again. >>ni


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