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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  May 14, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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32, looking up $15 when the price on thursday into trading on friday that's the sort of consensus opinion. i do want to say that if you want to kind of get the kind of analysis that the pros are using we can get you a link on facebook.cnbc.com. you'll get a free copy of the facebook ipo primer. check it out on the web, give you a sense of what the pros are looking at. >> all right, gary. nice hoodie. >> rangers! >> that's it for "squawk on the street." thank you for joining us. let's get the "fast money halftime report." >> all right, melissa. four hours to go until the close. here's where we stand on this monday. the major averages, off the worst levels of the day but we're being dragged down by financials and materials. a look at the s&p 500 off about 10 points. the dow industrials off the worst levels but still hanging around about a triple digit loss. slightly below that. the commodity story, that's the big story today. take a look at gold and oil. the commodity index at its lowest level since october of
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2010. gold down negative for 2012. gold's off by 1.25%. crude oil taking it a little bit more severely today as crude oil is off about 1.5%. to the top stories we're following on the halftime show. dying bull run? how should you trade weakness from energy to gold. yahoo shake-up dan loeb good enough reason to get bullish on the stock and what should the company be doing now? plus trading the groupon squeeze. the discount deal stock surging today ahead of earnings but does the story continue to be buyer beware? the stock down big here today. welcome to the hfl time report. talk to the traders, as stocks are under pressure on europe worries, the big moves as we said. gold, oil, copper, energy and materials below their 200-day moving average. joey t., is the bull running commodities coming to an end? is that the big tell in the market, that you're not going to be able to do anything if commodities are getting hit so
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hard? >> we've talked about commodities over the past several months. this is a u.s. centric story. this is about a u.s. dollar that continues to rise. this is about commodities that in the second half of this year will get a lift on the chinese continuing to ease. this is about financials. we've lost financials over the last couple of days. i think we're going to lose financials for the rest of the quarter. i think there's opportunities in the market today. i know i differ from stephen. i bought some san disk, net flex. i think tomorrow is incredibly important today. >> i want to stay on the commodities story. dollar intention has been up 11 straight days. almost unprecedented. >> yep. >> the dollar is really weighing on commodities and i'll pose the same question to you that i did to terranova. can the market do anything materially if commodities aren't along for the ride. >> if you take a look at a
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long-term chart, the crb, the commodity index, that includes everything, oil, the agra business, as a matter of fact, base materials are only 13% of it. you see a high correlation between the s&p and the commodity index. my answer to you is no. i think it's a sign of weakness in the global economy, and the u.s. economy, and markets going lower. so i am still short. i'm short caterpillar which is really a global commodity, global growth story. none of is going to be reached. joe and i differ on san disk. i'm lugging that thing around losing money. >> so much of the commodity story brings china into the conversation. china cutting the three rs again and it raises the question of whether that is a smart move, or if it's just a sign and now a more telling sign of desperation by the chinese that they themselves now are more worried than ever about a slowdown and
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how dramatic a slowdown could possibly be. >> could very well be, judge. when you think of what's going on here you have a lot of people kind of getting ready to panic. the panic's coming in after the jpmorgan news. you talk about china. we're still looking at 8% growth over in china. unlike steve, i'm long fcx here. they had a big rally, probably just from a technical position but had a big rally on big volume. i think this market although we're not taking off to new highs in the very near future, you can see things like oil come down, like gold come down, like copper come down yet there's still opportunities to make some money. >> weiss on the other side of that trade? >> there's no way that china is going to come in at 8%. they may say they're at 8% but they're not. chain ma is in for whether it's a hard landing or not doesn't really matter to me at this point. it is going lower in terms of gdp. >> there's no way china's not coming in at 8%, stephen. when they put their foot on the
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brake that does stop everything right in its tracks, guys, because unlike our economy that is everything, the central bank and what china does what the political party does that's everything. so i think that china taking their foot off the brake now is going to provide an awful lot of boost further to the issue about the commodities, judge, i think between the dollar, and of course, the exchanges over here and the government, going after speculators. the exchanges haven't, but they've basically taken a look at how many people are holding how many contracts and all the rest and people have backed off saying wait, i don't want that target on my back so they've backed off. those two things are why you see the commodities doing what they're doing. >> are we saying here because we have two distinct camps here? china is basically falling out of bed and then we have china going to be okay story. are we saying that despite the inability of greece to form a government, that china at the end of the day, holds the key as to whether this market goes up
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or whether it goes down weiss? >> here's the deal. china cut the reserve ratio by 50 bits. that's meaningless. credit was not an issue in china. they were below their credit limits except on real estate and property development and they have not loosened controls there. that bubl is bursting. real estate prices are coming down by their own recognition. the individual towns and provinces are loaded with debt. 40% of their revenues have come from real estate selling real estate. >> let's hit quickly on the opportunity buy. that is what i mean when i say that okay you've seen a pattern now for the last week or so, when the market sells off, gets to be its lows, europe closes, value buyers come in, and they're nibbling at opportunity. just like you did with sandisk, just like you said you did with another stock as well. >> i believe that we are in a trading range. and i think that you have to look from a macro standpoint you've got three central banks
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in essence going after competitive currency devaluation. and the chinese are going to continue to ease. they cut 50 basis points on the ror. they're going to ease throughout the year. there's going to be a lag effect to that. the commodity story will come into play here in the third quarter. in the fourth quarter when historically you begin to see demand rise. in the near-term, if you want a commodity trade, natural gas has found the trough. i talk about upl. i own it. i bought it. i think it's a great place to be. some of the speculative money in crude oil is going to come out and into natural gas. storage is near capacity. that may be an opportunity in the near term. i would not go short to commodities. >> let's talk about the story that continues to keep giving, more developments over the weekend, that is the shake-up at yahoo. a big, a big win for hedge fund manager dan loeb of third point. ceo scott thompson out after weeks of scrutiny over inaccuracies on his resume. just like week piper jaffray
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analyst jean muenster told us investors shouldn't be worried about so-called resumegate. >> i understand there's integrity issues around this that you can kind of go back to, but the reality is this, when you make this find of hire, yes it's an oversight but does it really matter what the person did back in college? it's more about what they've done more recently. i think there's some things that can scott thompson can do to fix yahoo and to change leadership at this point seems like it's not the right thing to do. >> let's bring in gene muenster now on the fast line, see what he thinks. he's not going to have tat chance to do some of the things that you thought he could. where do you come now on yahoo? have you changed your opinion? >> -- sets the -- hello, hello. yes, disappoint. sets the company back another six months. sets back the old game plan which wasn't that old, and so as far as i'm concerned it was not
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the right move to do. but ultimately is going to take the company in a totally different direction. this is going to be much more media focused. much more back to yahoo's roots. there's zero expectations around this. >> you had a buy on the stock before the weekend, right. >> we did. and we still maintain that. part of the reason why is that the asian assets, and i don't think this really impacts a lot of how the asian assets played out the news over the weekend, that's really the backstop of the valuation, is asia. ultimately probably has some expectations. there's some plans about what to do with those assets. you can still own yahoo! based on those asian assets. >> you're holding fast to your buy rating when you just say it sets the company back. you're giving it a six-month time frame when they don't have the guy in the chair or the gal in the chair, look levinsohn may be the guy but they don't know exactly who the ceo is going to
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be and you're telling me once they figure that out it only sets the company back six months? >> as i said, it's a disappointment. i think the way the stock is trading today it just shows you how little expectations are built in to the stock. i'm trying to separate from the reality of what's going on versus the reality of what's priced in the stock. and so, i agree that this is a setback in terms of the outlook, you know, it's been just a revolving door. it's been comical about what's going on at the top. i'm trying to think more about the stock and the way the stock is trading today is evidence about, you know, what the expectations are priced in. >> gene, dan loeb was obviously able to execute on the plan to get the board in the position that he wanted. we're talking about monetizing the asian assets, the value of ali baba has increased. do you believe that potentially maybe the street is understatementing loeb's ability to monetize these assets, a lot faster than people think that he can. >> i think so. i mean if people really thought
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favorable asian outcome was in the works, i think the stock would be up more. you know, you were just talking about china and about the, you know, the economic outlook there. the reality is they own some of the best internet assets in china. the price that they're going to get is one of the sticking points. and so i think the fact that we've waited over a year for these assets to be monetized has kind of made investors take a wait and see approach to that. but eventually, again, our -- >> final question, is it more or less likely that they just sell the whole damn thing at this point? >> i think they're going to obviously get rid of the assets. i don't know over the next six months if there's any sort of buyer. >> gene, good to talk to you. >> dan loeb, i'm following dan for about a decade, met him a few times. what people don't know is that he's got the best track records of any hedge fund manager out there consistently year after year really outside returns. i'm not involved in the stock but if i got involved because of
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loeb's -- >> we're going to talk to a yahoo shareholder a bit later in the show. so we'll certainly get his thoughts on what he thinks the company needs to do now. whether he's holding onto that shares and what the whole story turns out to be. >> i think loeb is going to be age to execute a lot faster than people think on monetizing the asian assets. the street is saying we're nowhere near monetizing it. the value of ali baba is increasing significantly here. don't think they're going to be giving away these assets. this is going to happen a lot faster -- >> there's tremendous optimism about what loeb can do but final comment, dr. jay, and jean really spoke to it, i was going to ask, is this a great move for the company, or how far does it set yahoo! back in that they have to find a new ceo and move forward to what they're going to do in terms of strategy? >> you said it, levinsohn is one of the guys that could actually help push them in the right direction here. so kudos to loeb and anybody else that was behind that.
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and i think the big deal here is getting rid of those five board members because clearly, that is why you're going to see an acceleration rather than this death by 1,000 cuts. i think they're going to be precise and directed about what they're going to do going forward. i don't even know if that means they're going to sell their stake in ali baba. i think they're going to wait for their right price for that now that they've got rid of the five board members this is a much better board and much more nimble than it was before. >> the financials continue their slide from last week as heads roll at jpmorgan after the $2 billion trading loss. where is the floor in the big banks? weiss, you own shares of jpmorgan. >> i do. i do. it's been a core position for awhile. obviously very disappointed. sorry it's a core position. i thought that their problems were all behind them. sure i knew people would be concerned about europe. but to have the management, you know, basically take defeat from the jaws of victory by putting on a trade like this, there are
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no true. . i'm very concerned. i think sentiment is so strong and europe is an issue that the banks revisit their loans. jpmorgan included. >> you have said repeatedly that the reason you had owned and still own jpmorgan is because you think they have the best management on the street. your words not mine. >> exactly. >> does that change? >> of course it changes. it still may be the best. but that doesn't speak very well of the other managements. i'm not a fan of city and pandit. haven't been for awhile. so i still think it's the best bet here. i think this makes them a bit stronger in terms of tightening the controls. i also think they're in the best position still to pick up assets from troubled sellers overseas. and have the best global position. >> murphy are you looking at these banks and the sell-offs, are you seeing opportunity or getting out of the way? >> i think you're starting to see opportunity here, judge. you look back. you've had major sell-offs in '08 and '09,' 10,' 11. the easy bet here, so much put
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buying in the financial etf. at some point you do get value here. something like a jpmorgan maybe you want to wait and let the dust settle but a wells fargo, you definitely have opportunity there. >> dr. j. from an options standpoint are you getting a sense from what you're looking at that people are betting on a bottom? >> well, you'd certainly think that, judge, by the xlf which was trading ten to one so that's way out of whack. but the xlf is only in about 3% since last thursday. that doesn't tell me enough about a washout, really, judge, even though the ratio of calls to puts tells me we're seeing a washout. we're not really seeing the clear panic that i'd like to see in the xlf and maybe this means we won't. >> yep, all right. up next, chesapeake energy seeing a nice move higher today. find out how traders are playing the pop.
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>> >> welcome back to the "halftime
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report." take a look here at the vix popping above 21 today. it's up more than 6%. you know, dr. j., give me the tell on the vix. what it's going to tell us about where the market goes from here. if you look at what happened the last time the vix had a couple of, you know, similar moves, you did see significant declines for the s&p 500. this time, different or no? >> it feels about the same, judge. it feels just like we're going to probe lower because of that fear that's reflected by the vix. and in april, i think we only had two of those closes north of 21 on the vix. so that's one of the keys here, too. can we push up to 22, and if so, do we hold? and if we don't, i think we come right back down, which means the market would rally off of that, as well, judge. >> all right. let's get to a realtime trade now. are headwinds brewing for starbucks? jim yurio, cnbc contributor, joins us on the fast line with
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his trade. good to talk to you. >> thanks, scott. >> what's the move on starbucks? >> this morning it definitely felt like the overall market that the sky was kind of falling. so i was looking for something to sell on the opening. and you know, you can sell to banks because that's theest part of the risk. i'm already short goldman so i came in a little bit on the risk spectrum. some were kind of in the middle where starbucks is and i added some shorts in starbucks. it had broken through a little bit of a trend line formed in the last four days. that being said i love this trade when i put it on. the fact that the downward momentum -- >> i sure as hell hope so. >> i kind of like it but don't love it but as it starts to head lower i may add to it. >> should he not like that trade? >> no, he should not like that trade. >> why? >> we talked about starbucks about a month ago. they had the technical intraday reversal. that was the time to get out. i got back to starbucks last week at the end of the week.
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i think it's found a little bit of a technical trough. the fundamentals are incredibly solid. commodity costs looked a little bit high on the earnings side. that was a one-off. this is a premiere franchise. this is a name that you invest in. that you're getting a gift down here at the low end of between $50 to $55. it's a name i bought. >> i agree with what joe says about the fundamental aspects of the company. i think when the broader market spills, i think it's going to pull some names with it when it's good. that's why i like the short and that's why we have a trade. >> murphy, last comment? >> i'm on joe's side here. i think starbucks with the pullback from the low 60s is a buy down here and if it got a little bit lower i'd buy more. >> and i actually disagree with jimmy on the correlation to the market itself. i think this is a great defensive play in a global consumer type stable. jimmy, we'll see what happens. >> see you guys. >> trouble at chesapeake continues. an open letter to the ceo asking for the ceo to be fired.
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noster capital saying the final insult came when the punishment in quotes for mr. mcclendon's substantial use of personal leverage was simply to strip him of the company's chairmanship. we're sorry to say but a truly independent board would have terminated its chief executive officer on the spore for a far less infraction especially given mr. mcclendon's historical use of leverage. chesapeake share is surging today. dan, what argument makes more sense here that the shareholder who says that mcclendon should be fired or should you be buying the stock because you think icahn is going to take a big stake? >> i don't know whether you should be buying the stock. the time to be short for the short-term is over. they made this tremendous announcement on friday that chesapeake cannot sell. they cannot monetize, those assets they need to to stay solvent. that was trumped by goldman sachs' loan to them, a
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short-term loan of $3 billion. i don't know what the interest rate is on that. but it can't be good. all of that gets trumped by icahn who has made a career out of coming in and using his magic on chesapeake. he did it last year it went in december of 2010, he announced similarly that he was going to accumulate a stake. that was in the mid 20s. then he spoke on what i think he's going to do, the same kind of thing he'll do here. talk about asset sales, lowering debt, a couple of board seats for him and it moved the stock at least last year to 32, which hasn't seen again. i think that's the kind of money that follows icahn is not money you can go against. i think the company is fundamentally in deep trouble but at this point what i'm looking for is a rally to short and i don't want to be short anymore here. icahn is just too strong. >> i agree completely. icahn brings a lot of credibility, also you have to think goldman sachs did a little bit of homework before the $3 billion loan came in. i think the money has been made
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on the short side. is it low 20s, mid 20s? i think they could see buyers start to come in if this stock regains the mid 17 range. >> bottom line, dan, you're the guy who said you saw chesapeake potentially going down to the single digits. icahn takes that off the table. >> for now it does. i don't think fundamentally the story has changed. that single digit call was a very, very long-term call. it talks about an endemic problem in terms of their debt structure. that makes months or maybe even years to play out. right now the money has been maden vr on the short side. not time to get long but get out of shorts. >> i think you have to be careful following whales, particularly when they already have positions. you've seen icahn's not invincible. this may be one where he slips up. it's not analyzable. >> dan, give me your quick take on oil. i mean, is it just a prisoner to what the dollar is going to do here, maybe talking about what
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gold is doing. you see the sizable move over the last 11 days. that may be the biggest headwind now as oil for anything. >> i really thought that 2012 was going to be different than the summer of '10 and' 11. this is really a swoon that's become traditional almost here in the oil market. what the difference will be is in keeping that long-term trend since 2008, where i think that when we do find a bottom in oil it will be higher than the bottom we found in 2011 and higher than the bottom that we found before in 2010, and higher than 2009. so my number here, somewhere between 88 and 90. that's where i'll start to buy some of the higher stocks. >> thanks so much. >> dan dicker, coming up a top analyst makes sense of groupon's move higher today.
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supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours. ♪ welcome back. let's get right to today's top three trades. fcx is freeport mcmoran holding
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up? the chart up a half%. we did discuss it at the top as you and weiss are on different sides of this one. >> i think the way freeport's trading here, there was big bottom coming in. the fact it's moving higher today with copper going lower, i think that even lends more credence to the story that it's going back into the mid 37 range from there i think it can test $40. >> avon and coty getting a little friendlier, doc? >> that sweetened bid certainly didn't hurt, nor did the dismissal of scott thompson last week. ms. young over at avon has been just horrific as a leader of that firm, taking it in the wrong direction. it's not just my opinion. look at what the stock performance has been. i think the fact that warren buffett is providing the financing here for berkshire hathaway, that means they can get the deal done and that 24.75 level that they moved it up to last week, i think the stock
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goes there or even a little higher. >> and finally take a look at gold, the precious metal now ordinary. turning negative for 2012. joey t. what's the look here? chart says today down 1.3%. >> it's been order near since the end of february when it broke at the high levels. looks like 1523.90 which is the december lows. that's the next stop clearly for gold right now. it is not a trade i would make right now. i think you stay out of gold, you stay out of silver. >> okay. groupon spiking 10% today. ahead of evgs. should you buy the momentum or is this nothing more than a short squeeze? let's take your position with citigroup internet analyst mark ma haney. >> good morning, scott. >> why are we seeing a 10% move? >> i think the bigger story is the 50% correction since the ipo price. the stock's gotten beaten down, valuation on next year's numbers if they hold at about five times ebitda is interesting. the company came out at the very end of the march quarter and announced the inaccuracies,
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inconsistents in their financial disclosure. they had a chance to say something about the quarter. the fact they didn't probably indicates there's no risk to the estimates. there's an interesting long trade in here. but the long-term call on this is very uncertain. >> what's more telling of what we're seeing from a trader or investor standpoint when folks who are watching are thinking about what to do. the near 50% move down year-to-date or the spike we're seeing today in earnings figuring more optimism may be ahead? >> i think it's much more the first rather than the latter. there's a lot of controversy around the stock since its ipo. they've unfortunately done nothing to assuage that. that controversy. they've ignited, you know, some greater confidence. people want to focus on what's happened to their marketing fan. it's come down three quarters in a row. if they can do that again and show triple digit growth in customers and billings, bookings, that makes it an interesting story. looks like competition has kind of come in on this name. there were two major
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controversies around this name. could margins really go up and sustain the high growth? they'll at least address the first part of that controversy. >> dr. j.? >> mark, it seems that they certainly the way that they've defended their space is basically, by burning all the wood on the back of the train, as they take each car apart to throw it into the engine so they can continue to have that drive going forward. and basically put it in the face of everybody who wants to compete against them. now that's a limited time strategy. in other words it won't last long. they can push a lot of people out of this space but that spin, just as you addressed, is the major issue here and that's one of the things they cite as an edge going forward, is that spend. if they can get that under control i agree with you 100%. if they don't that's the reason to watch to the downside. >> look i agree with dr. j. on this. we've got a hold on the stock, a neutral on it. we've had it since the beginning. the other issue i want to try to address here is can they do more besides daily deals?
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they can have success in basic goods, compete with amazon, compete with priceline and expedia, there's another element to the story. i think you have to bet against them in that they will use up all the wood in the daily deals business and that marketplace is going to be capped in size. they're going to have a huge share of capped market, and that's not interesting stock to buy. but if we see that movement in travel or goods that changes the equation. we think we'll be holding on this stock and not buying it. >> speaking of holds, mahaney i got to run. i would be remiss if i didn't get your take on yahoo. thompson out. >> we're just going to wait. i want to see somebody come in with a real defined value, not a growth strategy. there's a lot of brand equity here. they've got great asia assets. those are increasing in value. unfortunately this company's negotiating leverage has been declining over time. i don't think you want to touch the stock here. >> mark, thanks. >> murphy, trade groupon. >> i think when you look at groupon here, scott, it's 15% of the float is short so you got to be careful here. this thing has the potential to bounce if the numbers are even
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decent. long-term i just don't really understand the business model. long-term i wouldn't be a buyer but from a trading standpoint i don't think you're shorted here because it would pop 10% on a decent number. >> from an investment standpoint you do understand the business model and understand the fact that they've had multiple problems with the s.e.c. since before the ipo. and after the ipo. this is the type of name, this is the type of story, this is the type of management routine that you go, nowhere, nowhere near it. >> okay. up next forget apple, will facebook create the hottest ecosystem in tech? the leading venture capitalist reveals why the highly anticipated ipo could be even bigger than you might already expect. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting.
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♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪
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we've got a new tool for "fast money halftime report." its purpose is to uncover the stocks getting the most chatter on twitter. seema is here. >> let's go right with our twitter heat map. the bigger the blocks, the bigger the chatter on twitter. let's drill down on tech. the elephant in the room there is always apple. but take a look at zinga, grabbing more attention with the facebook ipo this week. the stock up better than 6%.
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let's get to some tweets we're seeing today at traders tweeting, this is where the money is going this week. another trader overhearing that i'm loading the boat along calls holding until the ipo. those facebook -- there are some traders who are not convinced. one tweeting that he's betting on going below 7 bucks today. another trader saying that he's a little sarcastic, i think ten different analysts stated don't worry we'll be 20 bucks by facebook, just ignore the faulty technicals and inside sales. i guess the question really is how to capitalize. and second can zynga ride on the coattails of facebook and if so how long. >> seema, guys? there is definitely a feeling that facebook, at least in certain circles that facebook is going to lift all votes. you're shaking your head. >> completely disagree. i think where the marketplace is right now, where you look at a all right of these social media
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ipos, there's only so much capital that's going to flow in to these names. it's all going to go into facebook. certainly not going to go into zynga. the analysts have done a horrible job. you've got zynga trading $7.94. the average price target is close to 12 bucks. you've got 23 analysts to cover it. only three have set it to sell. they keep reiterating to buy, buy, buy. i think it's misplaced, i thinkth wrong, i think it's hard to model and the capital flows go to facebook only. >> first of all, as to the heat map it's a great opportunity to find a way in to the market because you can beclaire, you see it up, make money on the short side. you see it down, make money on the long side. as to zynga and facebook look at how it's traded since facebook has been on the road. it's down, guess piet being up today. that means what they're saying in their meetings maybe doesn't lead one to believe they're going to be the ecosystem for everybody. i play facebook if you want to play facebook. >> the frenzy over it is reaching a refer pitch with the
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company's ipo expected later this week. fein has spawned an entire ecosystem of smaller start-ups but can any of them become the next big thing in tech. let's bring in jon frankel from ff venture capital. welcome to the show. >> thank you. >> what has -- what has facebook meant, overall, just for being a venture capitalist. >> i think it has shown that there's tremendous opportunity out there. what people are focused on today is what's happening in the stock market today. they're focused on the cyclical issues in the market, the structural debt issues, and they're missing what we're going through something as big as the industrial revolution. we'll name it in a few years. but we'd like to refer to it as the content revolution. >> is facebook, or are these more confident going forward because of facebook? is it easier to raise capital from venture capitalists? >> the answer is, there will be a number of vcs you've invested
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in facebook. their track records will look stellar. they will find it easier to attract capital going forward. they'll find it easier for companies to work with them, because they were the ones who believed when others didn't. the whole nature of venture capital is investing at times where others just don't want to. >> there's something really interesting in a note that something you said today, you say a key sign of a bad investment is everyone fighting to get in. are you saying steer clear of the facebook ipo? >> that's a -- this is a general comment and it's something i learned, which is you only make money when you don't go with the crowd. so with regard to the facebook ipo, i don't have a specific opinion other than the estimates i've looked at, the run out to 2015 show this company generating potentially, $10 million in ebitda, you can discount that back and make reasonable case about it.
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facebook is not about the next quarter, it's about the next five to ten years. there will be a huge ecosystem around it but facebook is only one small part of a story. >> so how does the public market investor who doesn't have the ability to invest in early stage, how do they decide which of the winners and the losers when they come public? zynga has not done well. how do you know? >> it's very, very difficult to know as a public market investor. that's why we have analysts, but as you know, analysts have mixed records over the past more than few years. i think the answer is, you need to do what most other people do and form your own independent winnion. form your own view about the given stock. and separate your view about the company and about the stock, i mean, my general sense is, when google went public everyone wanted to own 100 shares of google. when facebook goes public,
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everyone will want to hone 100 shares of facebook. what's different this time is, there's a huge amount of financial investors other than vcs, who own facebook stock today because they bought it in the secondary market. and that's just makes it very tough to understand how this is going to trade in the first three, six, nine months. >> are you comfortable with a $100 billion valuation? >> i -- am i comfortable with it? i think it will achieve it. i don't know if it -- >> it's going to achieve it. finish your thought there. >> the way we look at the world in the -- we're going through something equivalent to the industrial revolution. and so, it's enormous change happening. and it's happening due to in content creation and how people look at privacy and what they're willing to share on the web. it's happening in content curation, where people are playing. they're having fun. they're pinning things. and that's creating -- that's
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worked for other people but it's creating enormous value. and all of this data can be analyzed. there are companies out there taking advantage of these today, some in the facebook ecosystem and some outside of it. >> john, enjoyed it very much. thanks so much. >> not at all. >> jon frankel. i want to hear from somebody on the panel today, who does not want to buy facebook. >> i do not want to buy facebook. >> why? >> because people watching this show, retail investors, if they're watching, everybody seemingly wants to get a piece of facebook. as i said they want their 100 shares. why should they not buy facebook? >> dr. j. are you out there, are the options being offered on friday, as well f >> it will be have to be listed for a couple days, i believe, joe. then because of the sheer size of it, i believe it will be two days. but i'll find out for sure. through those options i know exactly where you're going, bill, i would own it, judge. but otherwise i think this thing trades up, maybe even as a double, after the ipo price. in other words, the traded price could be a double. and then i don't want to buy it
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there. so i would have to take a look at the options in a couple minutes. >> murphy, give me a quick one. >> i'm going to hold off on buying the facebook ipo but back to zynga, it is something you can buy. facebook will be around for the next year or two years so zynga is a way you can get a pop here. >> judge here's the thing. people i've spoked to that have involved with the deal, the biggest issue they're facing is how to allocate it. means that there's going to be national demand. you do want to own it on the pop and i don't think that morgan stanley is going to be the first bank that wants to see this ohio fail. too much future business depends on it. >> up next we're continuing to cover yahoo's board shake-up from every angle of it the break a shareholder in that company reveals what he makes of the changes and whether he's staying bullish on that name.
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the hour of power 1:00 p.m. eastern, california lunch, california nightmare. forget about greece, there's a huge budget deficit in california a bigger worry for the u.s. economy. and countdown to facebook. we're going to look at whether all of those concerns over privacy add up to a problem, potentially, for investors. and a prominent venture capitalist on what investors will be dreaming about next.
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now back to scott and more of fast half. >> ty, thanks so much. quick check on where the markets stand right now. all lower today. but off the lows of the day, financials are weight, commodity index lowest level since october 2010. gold negative for the year. so we're continuing to keep an eye on the commodities story. there it is. gold down 1.5%, copper is weak, crude oil is weak by 1.75%. time now for our fst money poll of the day. we want to know what you think now that scott thompson has left the company, what should yahoo do next? buy back stock? sell the stake in allybaba group. begin looking for a buyer? while you're thinking that over, let's bring in yahoo investor and founder of iron fire capital eric jackson who has a few ideas of his own. levinsohn and loeb a winning duo for you? >> absolutely. watching dan loeb over the last two weeks has kind of been
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watching a character jump out of the bushes in game of thrones and take somebody down. it's been something to behold. and what's most amazing is the way that he got all of the 15,000 yahoo employees on his side on his side against their own ceo and board. so it's the biggest news coming out of the weekend as that loeb and two other nominees are on this board. shareholders can finally be happy that they've got a shareholder-friendly board. and ross levinson is a super media executive. what's better is he's been on the job for two years. this isn't some green guy that's got to figure out where the washroom is. he's got some specific ideas himself about how to turn around the company. i expect he'll do that. >> what should they do next? >> well, i think there's two parts. there's the internal side, obviously turning around the core business. and then there's the external stuff. on the core side i think ross has already spoken about, you know, how he thinks that the future for yahoo! is in original video. so deals like abc news and katie courieric, i think you should
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expect to see more of that. on the external side there's alibaba, softbank and facebook patent stuff. i think alibaba, a partial sale makes sense. i'm not in favor of a full sale. and i don't think it's going to happen that they're just going to hang on to the full 40%. >> eric, go back to the internal side for one second. one of the things that has ailed yahoo! has been the loss of intellectual capital over the last few years. is this a game changing moment? are they able to retain? are they able to actually attract some? >> create more turmoil inside the company. i got news for you, sellside analyst, there would have been a heck of a lot more turmoil if thompson had stayed on. the morale was below the floor. and i think that morale is shooting up today because in general people like ross levin sohn.
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they like that the board stuff is settled. yeah, i think they are going to have an easier time keeping talent and attracting talent. >> are you buying more stock today? >> i am. >> yeah. what kind of position do you put on? >> look, i don't think there's going to be a quick fix. i would love that microsoft offers $34 for the company tomorrow, but i don't think you can run the company like that. i think you got to be looking at a year out and the turnaround to come. >> do you think yahoo! is looking at itself seeing it as attractive as you do, buyback stock coming? >> i think that the whole financial guys on this board are definitely looking at that and definitely thinking about raising debt in order to do a buyback. >> eric rk thank you. >> thanks. >> eric jackson today. up next, we're taking our position ahead of a slew of retail earnings this week. stay tuned to get the trades.
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the world needs more energy. where's it going to come from? ♪ that's why right here, in australia, chevron is building one of the biggest natural gas projects in the world. enough power for a city the size of singapore for 50 years. what's it going to do to the planet? natural gas is the cleanest conventional fuel there is. we've got to be smart about this. it's a smart way to go. ♪
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jc penney and saks set to report earnings this week. sks ahead of tomorrow's earnings, the analyst there cites aggressive promotions and free online shipping could squeeze margins. weiss, he's going to be on the show tomorrow. so we'll get a great read on what's going to happen in retail. jc penney, saks, a lot of big names. tjx has been a huge winner. for investors, people watching this show right now, it's been a big winner. does it continue? >> i think it could. i think they've got a unique offering. they've marketed well. i'm sure jc penney, let's turn to that. i can't tell you what this
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quarter's going to be. but from what i hear the turnaround is not working. if you talk about nordstrom missing earnings, jc penney is an even more competitive space where everybody's shooting at them. i think it's a flawed strategy. i'm comfortable being short even if the square's getting squeezed. >> one you want to watch thursday, gap stores on a pullback. you want to buy it. comes out after the close. >> murphy, quick a name? >> jc penney i'm short also. i think it can go lower. but i really think abercrombie & fitch has pulled back about seven points. >> we'll go around the horn when we come back and get final trades.
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of how a shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales. but if you take away the faces on the trees... take away the pixie dust. take away the singing animals, and the storybook narrator... [ man ] you're left with more electric trucks. more recycled shipping materials... and a growing number of lower emissions planes... which still makes for a pretty enchanted tale. ♪ la la la [ man ] whoops, forgot one... [ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. fedex. solutions that matter.
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not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be, you know, because you been, you know, this is what you had been doing. you know, working, working, working, working, working, working. and now you're talking about, well you know, i won't be, and i get the chance to spend more time with my wife and my kids. it's my world. that's my world. ♪ that's my world. if you made a list of countries from around the world... ...with the best math scores. ...the united states would be on that list. in 25th place. let's raise academic standards across the nation. let's get back to the head of the class. let's solve this.
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dr. j, final trades, you're up first? >> oil field service player cameron international, cam. they're buying the june calls. >> murphy? >> sticking with the energy theme. lng. it's pulled back about 15%. it's a buy. >> stephen weiss. >> macy's. continue to selloff after their earnings. all they didn't do was raise estimates. i think it's a quality name. >> big week for retailers.
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