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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  May 15, 2012 11:00pm-12:00am EDT

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well, that's our edition of 60 minutes on cnbc. i'm steve kroft. thanks for joining us. [ticking] i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts. they are nuts. they know nothing. >> i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. we want to own businesses we can understand. we want to own businesses where the ceo can grasp what's important and fix it if something goes wrong.
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nothing could be more important right now if you're still one more session where europe crushed us. what otherwise might have been a good day. the dow sinking 63 points. s&p declining .6% and the nasdaq inching .3% lower. i keep coming back to this concept of understandability when i consider the stocks that i've gotten behind over and over and over again on "mad money" as investments. on a show that's often mischaracterized as being about trading. buy, buy, buy. so much as a stock that works as a long term investment and a took that gets blown out of the water comes down to its simplicity. take the growth stocks i recommended. you may not realize but do i recommend the same growth stocks
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pretty much every week here. the danny meyer hospitality stocks. stocks like whole foods or apple or amazon or chipotle or starbucks, costco, disney. what do all these companies have in common? it's simple. they have easy-to-understand business models, not to mention great people at the helm who deliver consistent earnings time and time again. do we really quibble about what whole foods does for a living? they receive the seal of approval over everything they sell. the company can charge their customers more because they know anything they buy is blessed by whole foods. how about chipotle? quick serve company that cares about the stuff they feed you. right down to influencing the farm cycle. how about disney? where the combination of beloved
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characters, fabulous films and tv properties like espn and the disney channel can be understood -- boy remember these days -- it can be understood just by looking at the annual report. disney gets a gigantic billion dollar blockbuster like the avengers and you can see merchandise, sequels and rides that expand the franchise into a multibillion dollar earning stream. pirates of the caribbean. as the ceo bib iger told us yesterday, the decisions he faces are high quality ones. what to do with his capital. capital allocation. do we pay a bigger dividend? do we have more parks or more rides? do we make more acquisitions? do we keep plowing money back into the fabulous programming that we offer, that of course has tremendous pin action.
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these are the kinds of challenges we can get our heads around. they are the kinds of challenges that make us want to buy and not sell the stock if it gets hit. they give us confidence. europe will be an overhang for a company that has a euro disney business in france. but it has so many offsetting opportunities that it's worth putting the heel of europe into the non-achilles. even as the stock trades at a big discount after what was perceived to be a disappointing quarter, in howard schultz we trust. in the model we trust. they are able to make a cup of coffee and charge a lot more for it worldwide. there's been no change in that. costco and home depot offer similar opportunities. given a month or two or entire quarter out of whack. management has a concept that works.
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and most importantly these are speed bumps. when home depot dropped three points before the opening i encouraged people on my other show not sell it until they heard the conference call. don't sell it. why? because it's a consistent business. the sellers, what did they have to show for their actions? they had contact paper and shellack all over their faces. costco is not hard. what do they do? they sell premium prices at great prices and charge you a reasonable fee and has gone up only once. polite staff which is terrific gives fabulous free samples. i like the shrimp dip. i like it more than the crab dip. i've come for multiple visits and no one has said a word.
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they may actually encourage it. that's why i never eat before going a costco. am i clear? let's contrast those with owning the stocks of companies that are difficult to fathom, maybe unfathomable. maybe as deep as the marianas trench. companies like jpmorgan. had a big pow wow. jamie dimon, fabulous ceo. a simple model that has total control. fish monger he isn't. he didn't have control over the collateralized mortgage obligations his firm bundled and sold for clients a few years ago and didn't have control over this recent $2 billion debacle. how do i know he didn't have control over it? he told us. from the looks of things no one had control. this is too complex, too dense and beyond the ken of about everyone. at one point there's a guy in this movie, a rocket scientist understands it.
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he wouldn't understand this stuff either. the x factor meaning even the ceo can't get his arms around the $2 billion x factor and that makes a stock of jpmorgan too hard to invest it. i got the shellac all over me not to mention the contact paper. the loss is a lot less than we've seen at other banks. that's really encouraging. not so important in the big scheme of things. i bet jpmorgan has a record quarter. don't ask me to pay a premium for this bank versus the other banks. i'll save that for wells fargo. how about chesapeake energy? i thought that was a solid bet going primarily from natural gas to oil. now i think it's a hedge fund speculating on properties. a gambler at the helm. it's not a sin. you don't want to bet on them. yeah, see that. this is someone that promised on
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our show not take risky bets on the stock including buying on margin. found new risky ways to bet. he's running a hedge fund along chesapeake's business. aubrey mcclendon came on here and explained what he did. as he did when he got blown out by that margin trading. he stood right here. stand over right here again. maybe over here because he was over here this time. give him better luck which matters when you're a gambler. with natural gas so low, chesapeake needs rely on the kindness of other bidders coming in to buy acreage at premium prices and the kindness of bankers who will charge exorbitant rates to refinance debts. right now it feels like an oil and gas jpmorgan. then there's yahoo!. remember one time this was a play on search and display advertising. but facebook and google have crushed it.
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the company has no mobile strategy, social or cloud strategy. using market shares. what is it? now it's a breakup story. i don't a breakup story where i need others to come in and buying a declining asset. i don't want to fool people. i want a proprietary business. yahoo! is a revolving door company. who the heck knows how to value this company? i certainly can't. the bottom line, at a difficult moment like this one, i want to invest in businesses that i can understand and i can read the annual report and make a decision. not in businesses that the chief executive officer seems stumped by the business. one gives you confidence to buy on dips. the other is just a total horror mystery. if i want horror mysteries i'll just go buy a stephen king novel and save myself the trouble. let's go matt in georgia.
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>> caller: i want to know with all the fallout with jpmorgan is morgan stanley still a buy, sell or hold. >> it's a buy because it's inexpensive and goes down to 13 tomorrow from 14. here's what people say about cramer. he's a moron. he's an idiot. it is an inexpensive stock. i need a catalyst. i don't see some big buy back. i don't see someone coming in there bidding 31 for the company. international banks, if it is an international bank then it is not something i want to own because i don't understand it. as my mom said i would be a smart guy. let's go to jason in florida. >> caller: big boo-yah to you from sunny florida. given the recent turmoil in europe and uncertainty with the u.s. markets do you feel it's necessary to invest in more commodities versus stocks and not just etfs but actual physical commodities? >> no, no, no. impossible to understand, just completely nuts.
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unfathomable today. did you see these coal stocks? i told you to sell the cnx. that's still too high. thanks for nothing. joy global getting hurt. alcoa back to where it was. commodities? the actual physical or the stocks, just say no. understandability, that's the key for what's working in 2012. sometimes in all the chaos simplicity is welcomed. if you know it, if you can read the annual report and make a judgment about it, then that's what you want to buy. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, activist action. a big time investor reveals a substantial position in a company. should you ride his coattails or is it a fool's game? cramer is cutting through the hype to see if it's time to retool your portfolio. and later, fair weather friend? the clock keeps ticking down to the public premier of facebook.
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and cramer is helping you manage the news feed and now with the social stock's valuation rising higher is this ipo poking cramer thewrong way. plus friend of a farmer? agricultural trends in america can drive everything from fertilizer to machinery stocks. tonight, cramer is trying to plant the seeds for profits when he talks to agriculture secretary tom vilsack on the 150th anniversary of the usda. all coming up on "mad money." miss out on some "mad money?" get your "mad money" text alert today. text mm to 26221 to get cramer right on your phone. for more info visit or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. ale announcer) most life insurance companies
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here on "mad money" we're always searching for new ways to pick stocks. we're looking for new methodologies to help you make money not just in this environment but any environment.
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right now we need to ask is this a good time to go piggybacking? does it make sense for you to buy a stock in part because you know a big shot activist investor with a smoking sizzling track record has taken a position in it. last time i talked about how dan loeb and carl icahn are trying to force yahoo! and chesapeake energy to make some moves and unlock hidden value. as much as i respect these two gentlemen i don't think there's that much upside. no matter what loeb does and chesapeake very risky here. i wouldn't bet against either of these two gentlemen. they are too good long term. however i'm not sure i would bet with them at least not in these two cases. these stocks are hard to value on their own and don't that have growth we like to see or the potential growth for that matter. if you're going piggyback in
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this kind of scenario what you want are not troubled companies like yahoo! or chesapeake the latter with the terrible balance sheet the former getting its butt kicked by everybody. the best opportunities are in underperforming companies where the underlying franchise is still extremely sound. companies where management might be considered asleep at the wheel, but a lot of good could be done if someone would wake them up and tell them listen, here's what you ought to focus on, which brings me to a third activist investor. brings me to nelson peltz who just last week disclosed that his $5 billion hedge fund has taken a massive $900 million stake in the kind of company we're looking for. ingersoll rand. the stock jumped 5%.
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they make heating, ventilation, air conditioning systems. industrial tools and technology, hi-tech security systems and old-fashioned locks. these are all solid franchises but it's not clear they belong under the same roof. they have been poorly managed, maybe diplomatically say undermanaged for years. all which makes it exactly the kind of company that can benefit from an activist like peltz. so can you actually make money piggybacking off of the work of nelson peltz? we know peltz can make money. but by the time we find out that he owns something the stock generally pops like ingersoll rand did last week. we looked back on his deals. can you make money?
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the answer is yes. piggybacking on peltz has consistently worked as a strategy. we do this kind of analysis, use the right kind of methodology. we looked back. we're not trying to measure whether peltz made money. we're not in peltz' fund here. we only want to know if you could have made money if you bought after peltz's positions became publicly available information. every study we looked at talked about how you would have done if you invested with peltz. that's a false positive. doesn't mean a thing to us. you need to know how you would have done if you invested after the news came out, because that's the only way to do it. the results, believe it or not, if you bought these seven stocks after peltz's closing position, on average would you have beaten the market over the next three, six and 12 months.
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the biggest outperformance is in the first three months. even if you bought the big spike that comes when peltz announces his position, you would have been up 10%. would have beaten the s&p by an average of 7%. all would suggest this could be a good time to consider buying ingersoll rand. i'm not saying you should buy the stock without doing your own homework. you always have to do the homework. an activist like peltz can do things that you and i can't do. in the past peltz has lobbied shareholders to get a seat on the board of directors or opposed the board in proxy battles. he can get the ear of management. failing that, make himself heard by getting a foothold on the board. once that happens, peltz has to make these companies to restructure, selling assets or
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sell the whole thing. and he's a smart guy. having him as ingersoll rand's largest shareholder makes it a lot more valuable. 75% of the company's revenues is exposed to commercial or residential construction. in march of last year, management came out with some very aggressive targets, juiced everybody, got everybody real excited. i told you they were way too aggressive and the company ultimately disappointed. this management -- now it seems to have learned a lesson. whether they can hit the new numbers is in question. j.c. penney gave way too aggressive targets and we saw the ugliness tonight after they guided down their numbers.
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however, if management fails to execute we now have nelson peltz to take up the slack. there are a lot of ways you can force management to bring out value. ingersoll rand, the stock is worth less than the sum of its parts, a la berkshire hathaway, sara lee, rubbermaid and so many others. we know when we've spoken to management at heinz that peltz's terrific ideas are ideas that can change things. he's practical and offers practical advice, not scorched earth. do the same thing here. when you analyze it separately, you can add them all up.
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here's the bottom line. right now a bet on ingersoll rand is a bet on nelson peltz. as long as he's working to bring out value, ingersoll rand makes a lot of sense when the cloud lifts on the industrial sector. after the break i'll try to make you more money. stay with cramer. >> coming up, fair weather friend? the clock keeps ticking down to the public premier of facebook and cramer is helping you manage the news feed and now with the social stock's valuation rising higher is this ipo poking cramer the wrong way? [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac
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two golden crowns. you realize the odds of winning are the same as being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear in the same day? frank! oh wow, you didn't win? i wanna show you something... it's my shocked face. [ gasps ] ♪ [ male announcer ] get a retirement plan that works at e-trade. just last night we learned that facebook is raising the price range on its ipo by 14% to $34 to $38. glad something is going up in this market. like i told you over and over again if you can get shares take as many as you can get your hands on. long time customers of morgan stanley, the lead broker, please be sure to get your fair share. there may be a chance to score some from that shot. once facebook comes public
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be wary of buying the stock. underwriters wouldn't have raised the price range on this deal unless it was massively oversubscribed. facebook almost certainly will come public to a huge spike when it starts trading on friday. what should do you with facebook after the ipo, especially if like many people you haven't been able to get in on the deal in the first place? here on "mad money" we've been going over the results of past social media ipos. there's only one lesson we can take away from, it's this. under no circumstances should you buy facebook on friday. if you can't get in on the ipo there may come time to buy the stock in the aftermarket. that time will not be during the first day in trading. stay the heck way from facebook on friday. the moment the market opens, facebook will immediately enter a no buying zone. what makes me so sure?
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what we did was an analysis of the last ten big social media ipos. we like to be empirical on "mad money." demand media, linked in, pandora, zillow, groupon, angie's list, jive, zynga and yelp. granted they don't come close to facebook but their trajectories can tell us what will happen. only zynga was down. only pandora was up less than double digits. i think facebook can give you a similar move on day one which is why i've been so enthusiastic about recommending you get in on the deal while i feature it all week. the moment it starts trading, take a page from larry david in his investing handbook. curb your enthusiasm. what happens if you bought those other social media names they are down an average of 18%. only three out of ten have made you money in the aftermarket.
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all the rest lost you money. i know what you're thinking. facebook is better than these other social media plays. i shouldn't be comparing them. so what happens if it's three out of the ten we're buying in the aftermarket? what if this is different. when you're investing all you can do is place odds to be more right than wrong. there's another angle to this story. one that reinforces the need to stay away from facebook on friday. even with zillow, linkedin and jive made market there was a better time to buy. with every single one there was a better time to buy. not one of these social media ipos took off and never looked back. they spec on the first day and pulled back in the following weeks and months and only then began to rebound. if facebook follows a similar trajectory you would be a fool to buy it on the first day when
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you can get in at a lower price after. you'll start thinking i missed the opportunity of a lifetime. you cannot let your emotions guide your investment decisions. that's a sure fire way to lose money. so when facebook is shooting through the roof on friday, you need to remember the stories of linkedin, zillow and jive. these are the only social media ipos made you money in the aftermarket and gave you much better opportunities to buy than on the weakness of the first day of trading. when linked in became public it more than doubled on its first day of trading. if you bought there within a month you were down more than 30%. before linkedin ultimately rebounded back up to over $110 where it is right now. buying linkedin on day one was a fool's game. same goes for zillow. if you were patient zillow ultimately pulled back to
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$21.63. a much better entry point than you could have gotten on that first day. back up to $40 and change. if you were patient and waited for a pull back you would have a 90% gain from the bottom. 90. and jive. jive became public in december. closed at $15.05. it gave you an entry point that was lower if you were patient and didn't buy on the first day move. it's true facebook is a better company than any of these, they have a proven business model. unlike many of them it's already hugely profitable. but when you're analyzing an ipo the mechanics of the deal are just as important as the fundamentals and the facebook deal has many similarities to these earlier social media ipos. it's a sliver deal. 13% of the shares are being sold.
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this is a trick the underwriters use to engineer a quick pop. the door opened to numerous secondary offerings down the road that could drive the stock lower. remember yours truly was behind one of these unprofitable start ups during the height of the dot-com bubble. it ultimately bottomed at a sickening $1 price. i'm not saying facebook will follow that exact course. but i do from experience that the first day of trading is a wrong time to buy. if you're not sure, you might want to buy a copy of "confessions of a street addict" which has the whole sickening slide of that first day. if you can't get in on the facebook deal don't buy the stock right after it comes public on friday. based on the performance of every, every other social media ipo we've seen, you'll get a
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better chance to buy at a better price if you let yourself wait for it. let's go rob in pennsylvania. >> caller: how are you doing today? >> real good. >> caller: i called a while back on ticker symbol fio. it took a hit after earnings dropped. in the last few days it's on a roller coaster ride. today it took a hit after the ceo gave a presentation in boston. what are your thoughts on fire right here where it sits? >> here's the problem. it's a speculative tech stock and right now speculative tech stocks are killing you. there will come a time when this one is a buy. remember what i don't like. i don't like tech, i don't like the industrials or the international banks and i can reiterate anything commodity. i like the buyer commodities. that doesn't fit into my parameters. bonnie in california. what's up?
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>> caller: i was wondering about dlr. could the demand for the data service and storage centers take the stock higher or has it run up too far? >> boy, i'll tell you, i was looking at equinox. i would love to have them come on because i'm unlikely to recommend that at 4%. i do like 5%. tgif, not if you want to buy facebook and you are not in that ipo. history tells us the first day of trading is definitely the worst day to buy social media ipos. wait for it to come in. i'm telling you ten out of ten say you'll get a better chance. stay with cramer. >> coming up, can you handle the heat? cramer gets you fired up for a searing hot lightning round. and later, friend of a farmer? agricultural trends in america can drive everything from fertilizer to machinery stocks.
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tonight, cramer is trying to plant the seeds for profits when he talks to agriculture secretary tom vilsack on the 150th anniversary of the usda. all coming up on "mad money." it's gonna be a casual thing. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] the tight-turning, space-saving, eco-friendly smart. escape your stuff. ♪
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the teacher that comes to mind for me is my high school math teacher, dr. gilmore. i mean he could teach. he was there for us, even if we needed him in college. you could call him, you had his phone number. he was just focused on making sure we were gonna be successful. he would never give up on any of us. a living breathing intelligence bringing people together to bring new ideas to life. look. it's so simple. [ male announcer ] in here, the right minds from inside and outside the company come together to work on an idea. adding to it from the road, improving it in the cloud all in real time. good idea. ♪ it's the at&t network -- providing new ways to work together, so business works better. ♪
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it is time. it's time for the lightning round. are you ready, skee-daddy? eric in california. >> caller: boo-yah. how are you doing? >> caller: i'm doing great. >> thank you. >> caller: my ticker is tfco. >> i saw tractor supply. they will say tractor supply should be sold. let's say it's a $95 stock. take it down to $92 or $93 as a place to buy.
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let's go hayden in florida. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. my stock is new castle investment, ntt. >> we've looked at this over and over again. it's a real estate play that we don't have without them coming on. i know this always sounds like i'm being a pain in the butt. unless they come on we don't know what they own. if we don't know what they own i'll be darned if i say buy. brian in illinois. >> caller: jim, how are you doing? good deal. dish network. their ticker symbol dish and new name or new logo dish. >> i think it's okay. directv is a better buy. i like them more. let's go to jerry in florida. >> caller: hi, jim. >> what's up? >> caller: calumet specialty product partners.
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clmt. >> boy another one. i sound like a broken record. this is a company, this is a crude play and i got to tell you. no. i'll send to you energy transfer partners. master limited partnerships are down over 1,000 base points. etp goes down pretty much every day. that said, i think you can pick some stock up. it's a buy. let's go steven in michigan. >> caller: boo-yah, big daddy. car. what do you think? >> i think there's a slow down going in this country and not fully reflected in that stock. i would like to see it 10% to 15% more. i kind of like hertz and i like uri because of the acquisition it made and that acquisition is working for them. let's go gabriel in nevada. >> caller: boo-yah, jim from sin city. my twin boys and i watch you religiously. what is your take on mcdonald's?
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great yield. >> downgraded mcdonald's today and the stock didn't gown. normally i would say buy, buy. but when they downgraded it was an informed downgrade. if we can get between 3% and 3.5% yield we'll buy it and hold it. that's the opportunity. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round! >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. itatl and hurtle us all into space. which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd, and you still need to retire. td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? emale announcer) when you open a new account most life insurance companies look at you and just see a policy. at aviva, we do things differently.
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in a difficult market like this one it pays to fall back on big long term themes, the ones you can count on regardless of europe. when we talk about themes it doesn't get bigger than the multiyear boom in agriculture. over the long haul the world is still filling up with more and more people, 7 billion, and those people are eating more grain intensive diets, eating more meat and creating a tail wind for the group. no matter which part you're trading the u.s. department of agriculture celebrates its 150th anniversary tomorrow.
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usda publishes numerous estimates and reports. and we're thrilled to have tom vilsack with us here tonight on "mad money." this helps you invest in something this country does best, produce food for people worldwide, and that's why i want to break form and have secretary vilsack on to the show. welcome to "mad money." >> great be with you. >> happy 150th. i always come back and say lincoln thought of this too, didn't he? >> absolutely. not only this but the homestead act and land grant universities all the same congress, 1862 in the midst of the civil war. might be a good lesson for this congress. >> every time i read more about him i learn how great he was. the health of the farmer, no one knows better than you, we care tremendously in "mad money" one of the great long term themes is strength of american farming and how you can invest in it through stocks.
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how well is the farmer doing here versus all the years you've been the head of the department? >> jim, this is the best year, last couple of years, best years the farmers have experienced ever in the history of the country. for the first time last year we saw $100 billion of net farm income. that's the first time it's ever occurred. good strong year this year. continued strong exports. last year we set a record for ag exports. >> now, let's talk about what you're doing with our -- with these trade agreements. first let's take the ones that are new and how they are working for us. >> well, very new today is the implementation of the colombia free trade agreement. today is the first day of that agreement. tariffs coming down. should increase ag sales by $300 million. south korea implemented. should see $1.8 to $1.9 million of additional ag sales.
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>> on the other side, korea i always see -- i see the car ads. i know people buy cars. are they opening for anything other than stuff that we know they can't live without which is what we do for ag? >> korea, we've had pretty much open markets. this agreement negotiated by the president opens up an awful lot of opportunities not just for ag but also auto. we'll see is a lot more activity in the korean market for american products and services but i'm focused on ag and i would like to see tariffs come down. in a competitive market we'll win just about every time. >> we're the best at making farm machinery but also the best at making seeds that produce the most yield. yet some of our friends for instance in europe don't seem to like the seeds we develop. where are we in terms of educating them that our seeds produce more food without any sort of biological problems? >> continue to knock on that door, jim. it's obviously a difficult on the eu.
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we believe biotech offers a great opportunity for increased productivity of safe crops and safe food. we're having more luck in asia and southeast asia in particular. we're seeing greater acceptance there. we're working with number of african nation. we have a huge challenge here. our world population continues to grow. we'll increase production by 70%. we need to embrace science. >> mr. secretary, what do they see that we're not? i don't see any degradation of food quality here. >> well i think, jim, the problem is at least from my perspective, european farmers are heavily subsidized. obviously when we're competitive it requires additional support. i think they are beginning to recognize that if you're interested in the environment, using less chemicals and pesticides and water quality, biotechnology gives you that opportunity. there are a lot of pluses here.
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continue toed educate. continue to make sure people understand the science is sound and product is safe. >> you talked about the farmer doing well. i speak to a lot of companies that consume the product, in other words buffalo wild wings. i talk to them. they are upset, the price of wings has skyrocketed 50%. when i hear bumper crop is it possible the food cost could come down? >> we're seeing food inflation moderate this year. that's good news. about 3% substantially below what it was last year. we'll see prices come down just a bit. we're expecting a pretty good corn crop. still going to be very strong. still going to see expanded opportunity and seeing a new entry into this market, local and regional food systems, an important aspect of a new rural economy and bio based economy. good opportunity to use plant material and livestock waste to make everything we need. exciting new future. >> one last question. the country is being committed under democrats, republicans to
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have substantial ethanol. you're from a state that's benefitted. at what point does ethanol cost the average working person too much because corn is the basis of so much of the food chain? >> well, here's the thing, jim. if you go to the pump you're paying 80 cents to a $1.30 less per gallon because we have a robust bio fuel system. what the u.s. is doing is looking at alternative fuel stocks. you'll see a significant array of feed stocks which should take the pressure off corn and on food prices. >> mr. secretary, thank you so much for coming on "mad money." happy birthday to the department. >> thanks. >> tom vilsack, secretary of the u.s. department of agriculture. remember how important this cohort is. he reports tomorrow. we'll take a hard look at it after it announces the number. "mad money" is back after this break.
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when will europe stop mattering to our stocks? united states and europe are in different place. our employment situation is improving theirs is deteriorating. our housing crisis is on the mend. theirs is just beginning. our companies have terrific refinanced balance sheets. their balance sheets are weaker. so why can't we shrug off europe?
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why are we simply not as bad while our stocks merely don't go down as much as theirs do? why is that really the parlance? why are our stocks better? i think the answer is price. markets routinely independently overshoot where they have to go. witness the horrendous declines in the names. right now the perception is europe can annihilate stocks. we need lower stock prices as anyone who owns a commodity stock now knows to be the case. when prices get so low, last week a statement from fossil put
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me on edge. europe killed our earnings. that's the fossil principle. as far as hedge funds, the fossil principle means other companies with european exposure will blow it. they are not accessory companies. fossil telling them that alcoa will be crushed by europe. fossil says it's just a matter of time before things unravel given business in europe and we don't want to get ahead of the european freight train. now can you say wait a second. these stocks, they have been pummeled. caterpillar is down 12%. caterpillar is still up year-to-date, 2%. at least -- wait, it comes to the hedge fund players that dominate trading. this is a favorite company up 33% up year-over-year. who says it can't go down 20 bucks based on the fossil
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principle? you can play this game with so many stocks. remember the run from november to the peak in april was only bested by the run we had in our stock market after the victory by the allies in stalingrad in 1943. you get these stocks low enough and you can withstand the selling pressure. on "mad money" we don't care. i like stocks with little or no exposure to europe. if they get hit i don't have to worry about the next conference call. i have to ask why venture onto a battle ground? why go over the top? why follow the paths if you can avoid it? stick with cramer.
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the market started going down today when word came out that perhaps there could be a run on the greek banks which would make it difficult for greece to get out of the euro land. again, i'm putting it smack into the hands of greece. because actually it was developing into a pretty fine day. all that means is that prices have to go lower to ad f


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