tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC June 8, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
flat line later on today. also keep an eye on crude oil. good chance we end six weeks down in a row. only happened four times since 1983. have a great weekend. let's get to scott and "the fast money halftime report." carl, thanks so much. welcome to a special edition of "the halftime report" today. live from the sandler o'neill brokerage and exchange meeting, a conference that draws the leaders together in one place and topping that list, nyse ceo duncan niederauer. everyone waiting to hear what he has to say about the botched facebook ipo. he'll join me with the first interview since that offering. the plunge in oil. only four of those since 1983. should you be buying that dip? no summer slowdown this weekend.
why you should be watching for market-moving news over the weekend, both saturday and sunday. lots to trade today. let's start doing it, great straight to the markets. s&p on track for the best week of the year. but grasso, it's been a bumpy road. holding on to modest gains today. oil's the story in the pullback we're seeing but hard to find anybody to be long in to the weekend. >> well, you know, i'll take the other side of that. recently it's been that way. no one wanted to be long. now you look at the guys worried about news making days saturday, sunday. the weekend's are not being taken off in the euro zone so you could have a catalyst for an upside break. 1333 is the level to watch in the s&p. >> bk, grasso talking about the weekend. really, i think the focus is going to be on china. more perhaps than europe. you have a ton of data coming out of china over the weekend. >> yeah. >> that's likely to guide the trade on monday morning. >> i actually think it's europe. i mean, i'm with grasso. i'm one of the guys that wants to be long over this weekend. i think one, the china data's
going to be weak. the interest rate cut signals it's going to be weak. europe is the big deal here. most likely get a spanish bank recap over the weekend. that will be announced on monday morning. that will be a marginal positive for the banks and i think it could be a very big positive for risk on on monday morning. >> yeah, john, i mean, it's interesting if that's announced before the open of the u.s. markets on monday. >> well, certainly, the way the european markets closed, they're believing exactly the sort of story that bk has described as well as grasso as far as how we could be moving based on what happens there because clearly you look at the ftse, the dax, the rallies in to the end of their days, obviously that sets up for a little rally in to the end of ours, as well, judge. >> also, guys bull sh across the board. >> judge, if you want to play this, the best way is the way i did this morning. buy jpmorgan, jpm.
it's chatter they're short cds in europe. if you get the bailout, they should come in and the bad trade they had should be making them a little bit more money or at least not losing them as much. >> would you just focus on jpm or buy big banks across the board? morgan stanley, folks are more focused for exposure than the others? >> you could buy across the board. i picked jpmorgan because of that exposure. because their stock is tracking. the cds index they talked about being short and not jpmorgan talked about short but hedge funds talked about jpmorgan degree short. you can do citi. any of the money center banks and benefit from a recapitalization. >> but wouldn't you want to be playing the industrials? wouldn't you want to be playing energy? wouldn't you want to be playing higher beta names so if the
market runs, we know that the overall market trades with the indexes and probably want to play them levered plays versus the financials. >> well, i would play both. i am playing both. jpmorgan is probably the most levered to positive news in europe but i agree. the xli and those names do very well with a big pop on monday. >> patty edwards, give the view from the other side of the united states. are you as constructive on the markets as these guys on the panel are so far? >> the other side of the united states saying, gee, wouldn't it be great to get a pop? that's if and if we don't we'll be in the soup. i would rather be levering in to plays that maybe have more international exposure but are more on the dividend-paying side. frankly, i'm actually pulling back my international exposure at this point in time for the most part and actually going in to things like a j & j and focused in the united states. >> i know we'll talk to it
later, patly, in a discussion we'll have about mcdonald's, but you loaded up on more mcdonald's today because of the weakness seeing as a result of the comps and goes against part of your play, doesn't it? >> it does. and we're talking core portfolio versus one play in particular. mcdonald's is one if you look at the charts on mcdonald's we have come to a bottom on it and i think we are seeing support here. that being said, for the most part, i am angling that portfolio. i want to be much more exposed to the u.s. and looking at packaging corp., 100% u.s. yes, it's industrial exposure but all u.s. industrial exposure and a nice dividend with it. >> all right. let's shift our focus now to oil. lower for the second consecutive day. both wti and brent crude on pace to make new closing lows for the year. how low will oil go? joining me now, addison armstrong. welcome to the program. we have been talking about how we're posed for six straight
down weeks for oil, only happened four times. you have goldman cutting gdp forecast. barclays cutting. does that mean that oil goes lower on global growth fears? >> well, i think that's what's been happening and today you have really seen a lot of fear come back in to the market, particularly as tomorrow as china would only do. they have a big data flush coming including inflation, growth figures and there's some concern that the pace of growth in china is going to be reported as slowing than what we have previously been expecting and beyond everything else that's going on with this market, with the dollar up so sharply today. i think that's a real drag if china is finally going to not be the straw that stirs the drink for the oil market. >> what happens if you get a substantial move out of europe over the weekend? a recapitalization of the spanish banks? the dollar is weak and risk on monday, tuesday or whenever in the very near future and all commodities rides, don't they?
>> sure. risk on on monday in europe is a move on oil back up above 85. the problem is that the fundamentals don't play in to a short-term phenomenon like a risk on trade or even qe-3. traders know that the fundamentals don't support the market. until they stop kicking the can down the road on all these different stimulus packages and not addressing the underlying problems it is hard to see the growth to bring energy demand back to a level that's meaningful. >> addison? >> you know, you started to speak to it but is there a possibility for energy to get love without the quote unquote risk on trade in motion? valuation has to mean something in the names that have been smacked around. >> yeah. you're right there but i still go back to the fundamentals. you know, where is the energy demand going to come from? you know, if you get a
recapitalization of spanish banks over the weekend, what does that mean for european growth? i don't think it means a lot and oil investors don't either. certainly here in the u.s. we hear more and more talk about a slowdown in the second half of the year. china may be giving signals over the weekend that things are not that great so, again, what is going to be the reason for oil prices to go higher in the near or long term? next week we have a couple of events a. opec meeting. there i really think the saudis deep the hammer in the hand. they're going to say, look, i don't care what you want, mr. iran. we keep our spigots wide open. for them, the saudis, a weak iran is a good thing. >> ady son, thanks so much. good to see. we'll see what happens over the weekend. >> thank you. bk, trade in? >> well, i think if you're going to trade this, you probably want to trade the xle on the long side if you're going to do it. i think some point going in to the opec meeting you have to think that the saudis are going
to start cutting back on production because below $90 a barrel they have a budget tear problem and need to pay off the people so they don't revolt like everybody nels middle east. >> grasso, what would your trade be? look at the big oil names? >> you look at the levered plays like xco and you have to give them a shot because they've been really all over the map. they're very volatile names. not for the squeamish people out there. look at the nat gas plays and room there. >> dr. j? >> yeah. take a look at bp. we talked about it with pete last week. british petroleum. that stock popped better than 10% in the last week. clear out performance in the sector so if you're looking for best of breed out there, this is the one right here. pulled back a little bit. a lot of upside speculative call bets and reloading with those, judge. so that's the one to watch. >> okay. our next trade, the man behind today's conference is one of the
most respected analysts on the street. joining me now is rich ripedo. thank you for having us, our host. >> thank you for being here. >> good timing for you, the nasdaq compensation plan drawn the ire of so many different exchanges, a headline takeaway from the gathering here. >> sure. there was some controversy yesterday. nasdaq reviewed the plan. there was some opposition of exchange leaders. i think that's one thing that's facing these exchanges right now. there's a credibility issue. believe me, the facebook issue is important. but you also put some things in, you know, like the jpmorgan trading issue and the flash crash so these exchanges, you know, we discussed this amongst the ceos. think need to improve, do some things better on a technology side. >> where are the positives? laundry list is getting longer. you named it. it's the fallout of the jpmorgan
deal, the botched facebook ipo. equity trading is down. there's no deal making. so what's the outlook for the exchanges? >> this is exactly what your traders do, the worst case. you start looking at whether these things are priced in. the best case or a better case is these are, you know, low capital intensity models. they don't put up capital. they have high cash. they've got strong balance sheets, paying out dividends. buying back shares. the other thing they're doing is they could be helping the recovery of this economic crisis. we talked, senator schumer talked about the jobs act this morning. we had a spanish exchange ceo talking about playing a role in the recovery in europe. i have met with the japan ceo. ceos of exchanges saying, hey, we have a strong business model. we have to help the recovery, as
well. >> you follow the exchanges closer than anybody does. does the nasdaq plan get approved by the scc? and if it does, what the implications? >> i think that's a problem with the -- the way they have decided to reimburse. they made a good effort. i think not to take sides. because this is the market -- >> you're an objective analyst but what you're saying is you don't think that it is going to be approved. >> yes. because i think there's enough market pushback from other participants that they don't want the people that have been hurt reimbursed by trading fees. if they can reimburse that through another mechanism, the other exchanges are afraid of losing share as nasdaq reimburses the losses of that technical. >> your best in breed exchange right now if you wanted to invest in, you don't have to say new york stock exchange because he'll come over here in a second and speak to us. >> duncan is a good friend. it would be the intercontinental
exchange. you talked about energy. a lot about the volatility. if you look at their volumes, they have been the strongest year to date. actually, over the last 18 months. >> now what would be your best bet? >> what exchange are you on? >> rich, good to see you again. thank you for hosting us. look forward to coming back. >> glad to have you. check out the s&p 500. near session highs. modest gains across the board today. lots more is straight ahead.
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welcome back. live today from the sandler o'neill conference and a key question still surrounding the facebook ipo is whether the company will switch the listing from the nasdaq to the new york stock exchange. meantime, the battle between the two exchanges heated up yet again this week as the nasdaq announced a controversial plan
to compensate facebook investors and joining us in his first interview since the big ipo is the new york stock exchange ceo duncan niederauer. you offered a swift rebuke of the plan. you said you don't think it's fair. it's said that you have a misunderstanding of the facts. who's right and who's wrong? >> let's not make it about the two of us or the exchanges. i think what's happened in the last 24 or 48 hours is a proposal is made, a consensus is clearly building and what everyone is looking for if i'm reading the comments including ours is same thing. everyone wants accountability. everyone wants clarity. and everyone wants fairness and i think those are supposed to be hallmarks of our industry and appear to be lacking. that's what everybody's saying, not just us. >> some would say perhaps you don't like it because of the precedent that it would set, god forbid there's another one of these that go bad on your en. you would be on the hook. >> yeah. i actually disagree with that
fundamentally. if you talk about being accountable, we know we're in a technology business. we know the fate that bethem a competitor could befell any one of us on any day and you like to think you would stayened up and be accountable. we think this is nothing more than bp saying after the oil spill instead of compensating you for the losses we'll give you a voucher to buy cheap gas but come to our pumps. i don't get it. we're supposed to be the standardbearers of accountability and transparency and fairness and this doesn't strike anybody as fair. it's not just us. i want to reiterate that. you heard the feedback yesterday. >> is the argument they would gain unfair market share with the rebates forcing people to come back to them to do the trades? >> i think that's among the trades and if you're accountable in the business, don't hide behind what you're legally allowed to do.
we're going to face the situations at sometime. the measure of how you're thought of is how you behave in the immediate aftermath. i think people are disappointed that after three weeks of silence, we have a proposal. i don't worry about the precedent it sets. i think i know what we would do and not this. >> let's go back to the day of the facebook ipo. >> okay. >> all we hear from your guys on the floor, if this happened on the floor of the new york stock exchange, you damn well know that it wouldn't have gotten out of hand because we have got human beings standing there. can you say with absolute certainty you wouldn't have had some of these issues that came about? >> who would say that, scott? no one would say that. we didn't execute it. all we can reference is things like it that we have done. we know how we handled those. we know the model's different. we tell everybody it's different. you can interpost human judgment in a situation like this.
i'm not going to say we would have handled it flawlessly. we'll never know. it doesn't really matter. the customers when kay they com us, they know what they'll get and a consistent experience and we stand behind what we do and the model and historically it's worked. >> let me ask you about your model. the nasdaq offers a cheaper mod knell the way it does its listings. kraft today, dow component, first one to leave the new york stock exchange for the nasdaq says a reason is because of cost efficiencies. or words to that effect. so there a problem with the model? >> let's be very clear. we have several thousand listed companies and we charge a premium to a small fraction of those and they tend to be the larger companies. otherwise there's no real difference in fees. if you really read the kraft release, we have lost kraft. you win some, you lose some. >> that is dow component so people pay more attention to it. >> we won two big companies, so
let's be clear. transfers one way or the other. that's competitive. that's okay. you win and lose some. but what i saw in the kraft release this morning is the difference in fees is a couple hundred thousand dollars. i would be interested in customers asking more about the marketing package that was presented to them because that seemed to be the driver of the decision from our point of view so i'm sure over time hearing more from nasdaq of that package. >> let's talk about facebook more specifically. have you or have any senior executives or anybody for that matter representing the new york stock exchange had any conversations with facebook about switching exchanges? >> i think they know we're here for them. and i wouldn't speculate beyond that. >> are you just categorically saying we have not spoken? you haven't spoken to -- >> i haven't spoken to them. >> is there a likelihood you view this -- you must view this as an opportunity. >> sure we do. we would like to win and the right way. they're the customer. why don't we let the customers decide what they like to do? that would be my view.
>> what are you doing to try to use this to your advantage? working phones? calling companies on the fence, may list two, three, four weeks or months from now? >> you have seen our behavior in the wake of this. we won't change our behavior. we like to win. our culture likes to win the right way. this -- the customers are smart. they can see what's happening. i do think it will change the shape of the pipeline. they'll make those decisions. they know what we stand for. and i think this illuminated the differences in the models and something we're proud of. >> changing the shape of the pipeline, does that mean that facebook has a lasting impact on the number of companies, the way they go public, how soon they go public? >> yeah. i wouldn't go that far, scott. but i would say in the short run this clearly eroded investor confidence, the way this was handled and until people get their questions answered it's definitely slowing down the pipeline. right? you have heard me talk about it before on your show. the pipeline looks great. the question is when's the lasting impact on this? it's hard to tell yet.
right? it's coin sided with more market volatility. maybe it has nothing to do with facebook and so focused on this as an industry. that's where you see the consensus developing because the easiest way to get the confidence back and to restore it is to come out with a clear and fair proposal to say, we made a mistake. it's okay. it could happen to anyone. we'll fix it, act swiftly and then we move on and that restores confidence. that's our job. that's what we're asking for. >> steve liesman does a survey and talks to many investors, market participants, et cetera. 40% of the people he spoke with thinks the market is rigged against them. you have the jpmorgan situation. facebook situation. many other situations that we could cite. how do we get confidence back in these markets? >> it's an unfortunate series of events an enthe way to get it back, in my view, is mistakes are going to happen. people are going to react to them. it's how you stand up in the
wake of that and that's really what the industry's asking for in this situation. i think. that's what we should all be asking for because we represent a lot of people we'll never meet. we represent all the individual investors that want to trance act in these markets and until we make it clear to them, yes, from time to time, things happen and this is what we're doing about it. i don't blame them for being nervous and anxious. right? you and i would be too. right? >> talk about your business. spoke with rich repetto. the headwinds you're facing and the competitors face are dramatic. equity trading volumes are down. we mentioned investor confidence. the regulatory environment, you know better than most, doesn't allow you to do many deals in the business you're in. how do you grow your business? >> thanks for being so optimistic there. >> well, no, seriously. that's what you are talking about down there, isn't it? >> lots of headwinds. no one knows whether this is the new normal or not. we don't control the level of
interest rates. we don't control currency rates or volumes. all we can do is operate our business. there are days where it feels like a big headwind but you do what you can do. you think about returning cash to investors. you tighten the belt if you have to. you make sensible growth investments and that's what we're doing and outlined today. >> assess where we are from your view of the economy right now. we just listened to president obama make a speech about the economy. made some comments about europe and spoke about jobs. you will get up from here and fly to chicago and meet with president clinton. >> right. >> holding a clinton global initiative. give me your first reaction. i'm sure you heard the comments the president gave to maria regarding tax cuts. do you axwree that they should be extended? maybe not permanently. >> i do. >> you do? >> i do, yep. i think the economy needs that jolt right now. the u.s. economy is doing better than we think it is but what we're excited about this afternoon is the president invited me to come out to be at
cgi this afternoon. he saw what we were doing with the big start-up initiative and all about is taking the companies that are in our community and having them help smes both with intellectual capital and, you know, and working capital to those companies. that's a great initiative. we think it's about main street and nothing to do with companies going public and i think the fact that the president recognized that, that's great. we're flattered. i'll get out of here shortly. >> safe travels. >> thank you, scott. >> duncan, ceo. facebook shares up more than 3% on the day and headed for a losing week. there's the shares right there. coming up, on the "halftime show" yahoo! is getting love from the street but is it a smart buy? looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity.
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everybody. as expected, the two directors who up for re-election, hagis and davidson, got a very low level of shareholder support. 26% and 27% of the vote respectively so they will be tendering resignations and unclear whether the board will accept them but i'm told they're likely to, partly because they need more space on the board. secondarily, victories of other key proposals including reincorporating in dellway getting through with 53% of the vote and a majority voting standard with 97% of the vote. during the q&a, the ceo took some fire but considering expectations with pitch forks and shakes fists it's not that bad. here's the highlights. carl icahn said you're a great oil and gas man and good entrepreneurs need great oversight. he continues to think an outright sale of the company
should be considered. aubrey said over the course of three or four minutes essentially he doesn't plan to consider selling the company. finally, there was a shareholder from michigan where aubrey's in a land battle over real estate investments and tax issues. this man talked about an issue that's bedevilling the company. are you aware the personal behavior is tarnishing chesapeake? aubrey said as typically, no, he doesn't think it's tarnishing and last he looked michigan was a state where people needed jobs, guys. he's hoping that the situation will help create some jobs. >> yeah. kate kelly, thanks so much. i know our traders will have a lot to say about it. you were mentioning what shareholders were saying. take a listen to what value investor david dreamon had to say about the ceo. >> all the things that aubrey mcclendon has done in the years, i don't think as talented is he
is, he should be a member of chesapeake anymore. i think he should be either resign or be fired by the reconstructed board. >> all right. david dremon. i want your opinion on the trade if he stays or goes. do you like it oother way. >> you make it easy for me now. so for me, i think it's on investable. we have seen a trade with a $13 handle, a trade here lately it's been running up on the tape. for me, i don't know what their obligations truly are. i don't know if on monday we see it do an about face and head back down. i wouldn't be investing in chesapeake. >> too much risk. >> too much risk, period f. you want to play nat gas, buy the commodi commodity. nat gas and chesapeake work inversely to each other. chesapeake is a big footprint in the market so when we thought they were going out, you saw
supply being questioned. you saw nat gas spike and now doing better, see it fall. >> let's hit the other top two trades now. francesco soaring with a better than expected forecast, doc. >> very much. they're in the sweet spot with boutiques not necessarily focussed where they are and growing and why people are bullish on it. revenue growth going forward and guided very well and the stock made a pop of little over 20%. pulled back to only being up 18%, judge. but it's a great outperformance and looks like a nice job going forward. >> bernstein upgrading yahoo! setting a floor of 19 bucks a share. >> yeah. i mean yahoo! traded in a range here for a while. i'm not sure this is a catalyst for new business out of yahoo!. i think the way it traded is
something pete mentioned. you buy ya hoo or long it, you pick it up. i it's not going too much lower. >> all right. our next trade, shares of lululemon lower again after anticipated second quarter weakness. shares up 36% year to date so is it time to buy on the dip? now the trade of mike mar if i of rose cliff capital. we had an analyst on yesterday cautious on this name. you're not so much. >> no. judge, we love the name. we started buying the stock here right around the levels 63.60. reason being it's a name we have tracked for some time. this is a name that we want to own and pulled back 20% from the highs. almost 10% down on an earnings announcement yesterday that, remember, they beat revenue. they beat on guidance. their comps up 25%. they have raised the guidance a little bit lighter than the street was looking for by a couple of pennies but they're
like the apple of athletic wear. new york city, judge, every woman going to workout is wearing this. it's a name that has continued growth opportunities. they're expanding. globally. i think it's a name you want to own. you can use 61, the 200-day moving average as a stop. it's broke down beneath that by too much i'd want to be out of the position but it's a name to get a 20% discount. you want the own it. >> all right. thanks so much. got do run. mike murphy there with us. coming up, i'll have another may be out but stocks can bring you triple crown-like returns. plus, trading mcdonald's. super sized sales disappointment. more "halftime" after the break. 0 and i'm on top of it all with charles schwab. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i use streetsmart edge and its tools like... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 screener plus - i can custom build my own screens tdd# 1-800-345-2550 or use predefined ones. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i can trade wherever i want, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 whenever i want. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the kicker? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i pay $8.95 a trade.
welcome welcome back to the halftime show today. look at the markets. dow jones industrials at the highs of the day. good for one third of 1%. defensive tone to the day looking at the sectors leading uts. you would see that. there's one of them. xlp, the staples sector. the consumers staples. telecom having a god day and health care at the highs of the day and carrying the markets to the plus side on this friday. our next trade consumers are not loving mcdonald's today.en archg
miss. sarah senator joins us. are the best days for mcdonald's behind it now? >> i don't know if i would frame it like that but i'll say it's a company that's put up a remarkable string of positive same store sales over the past let's call it seven-plus years. i mean, really since '03 in the u.s. and '05 in europe and asia. we're actually just starting to see the macro environment catch up with the company. even though they're excellent at executing they're not immune to macro pressure tors intensity across the board. >> i mean, but you had every single metric of mcdonald's, right, every region was weaker than expected? that has to be an especially troubling sign. >> yeah. well, like i said, i think that's right. we are seeing a little bit of a
crack here in the sense that this is a company that's seemed to be essentially immune to macro strains. they held up very, very well in the financial crisis and the recession and now things are arguably worse in europe than they were in 2009. the u.s. is certainly the competitive set has gotten much more aggressive in terms of marketing so this is a very good company in terms of how it executes. but the demand environment and the competitive environment is tougher. >> let's get steve grasso with a question for you. >> is a rarks i met money managers and positive on darden a couple of months back and mcdonald's taking center stage. now seeing people getting frustrated or throwing in the towel and selling mcdonald's. do you think darden's in the best shape to reap the buyers coming out of mcdonald's? >> well, i mean, in the sense that both are sometimes perceived as best in class in their respective categories,
that may be the case. darden's trends probably not much better than mcdonald's in absolute. you know, the casual dining sector also struggled very, very much recently and so i'm not sure that darden is the best place if you're looking for real fundamental strength. real fundamental tail winds at the back. >> sarah, thanks so much. good to have you on the show. >> thank you. sara senatore. patty, you added to the mcdonald's already. give me another name. yum has taken a hit today. i don't know directly related to mcdonald's, have to assume it probably is. >> well, it's related but it's also to do with xhi that. the slowdown in china is going do hit yum more disproportion atley. i refer mcdonald's and darden screens well. i don't own it at this point in time. i would rather own something like a jm smucker's, something like that. >> dr. j, what would you own here in that space?
>> it would be mcdonald's. and i think patty's right. people looking at yum and what might come out of china and sort of anticipating that right now, judge. but it's already traded about 120% of normal volume. that's mcdonald's has. i thought it might get down to the october lows around $24-ish. didn't get there. in fact, every time opening down with this stock, they chip away at it and bring it back up as they have today so i still would wait for a little bit of a washout in mcdonald's if you're a patient investor, judge. i think you will be rewarded for that. >> treasuries another rush as investors are concerned of a bailout request of spain over the weekend. is it time to bank on bonds? joining us now is jeff killburg of killburg capital. 161 is where the yield is on the 10-year and moving events over the weekend. china data. possible recap of spanish banks, that's what some traders are
speculating. >> absolutely, judge. a lot to take in, like you said. we talked about the 1.67 many a-times and seeing resistance as it was historic support so as we continue to look to germany to pick up the paces here for us, but look at did german boon. last friday with the jobs number, went down to historic low. 1.19. it certainly feels like the pits are bid, bid, bid want to go down to test it and coming up short out of spain. >> are you still buying treasuries? >> i am. it's very interesting. i booked that trade. it's been kind of a volatility situation but right now until i see something and not trying to be naive. getting a promise out of europe, they don't deliver. you can buy the tlt here. 126 entry level trade and right now until we have something to sink the teeth in to, you have to buy treasuries.
>> all right. have a good weekend. talk to you next week. >> all right, judge. take care. >> the trade on treasuries? >> you know what? he's been spot on on this trade and -- >> he has. >> this time i can't agree with him. i'm not sure at these yield levels you have to be bearish on the world economy. i'm not sure we're there. i think there's better places to be. i would not be buying tlt here. i would probably be selling a long position. i have no position now, though. >> it would go against everything you said at the top of the show given what you expect over the weekend. >> yeah, absolutely. and what i expect over the weekend is still a short-term fix but a step towards something better and i think enough to take the bid out of treasuries. all right. coming up, with data of china and reported conference call on spain, anything can happen this weekend as we have been saying. we have the trade ahead of that news next. dow jones industrials looks to be at the highs of the day as we go to break. w
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you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. i was i was barely ready for this. today on power lunch, the three things that could happen this weekend and hit the markets on monday and only one of them is in spain. we know there's not going to be a triple crown winner. shareholder spring, tts no not just chesapeake. shareholders making their voices heard all over the country. which company could be next and
developments in the chesapeake story. triple crown dreams dashed. news conference is set for the top of the hour. you got money on i'll have another, go have another. now back to scott. >> all right. thanks so much. barely ready an pulled it off. apple will hold the worldwide developers' conference on monday. june 11th. the event lasts five days and will be held in san francisco. the conference will display the future of its ios applications but will there be more? that's what everybody wants the know. perhaps a new iphone 5. doc, any chance of that? >> i think there's at least a chance that approaches a 50/50 for that iphone 5. not the actual launch of it, of course, but they may show us that. there's been enough leakand of photos and videos now of what they purport the slightly taller version of the iphone with a different sort of connector on the bottom as far as the charger but it's also how you transfer
back and forth files. that is going to be pretty interesting. because all those developers that have things made for these phones would have to switch over then. that will be interesting for a lot of big manufacturers. >> yeah. i guess the request would be, does tim cook have to deliver something good if the stock is able to take another leg higher? >> well, and the answer, of course, judge, is, yes. he will have to deliver something good. i think they've got a lot of interesting things they're working on, though. i think maps could be a big thing if, indeed, they pull away from google and they do with their own map app. i think also they could start that app store for itv. now, we know that they're working on this because, you know, not just because we see the prototypes and things like that that are allegedly in the asian markets and things like that put together by sharp or others, but we also think that a lot of apps that might run on the itv extremely interesting.
can you imagine putting out the specs for that at worldwide developer conference, a natural would be a natural fit for that sort of thing. by the way, i don't know if he calls it the iphone 5? what if he goes with the new iphone. that seems to be the model after the new ipad. >> let's pull up the chart. was apple trading at $580 and change -- $570. i'm wondering, grasso, if you think apple goes to $550 or $650 first. >> we've talked about this in the past when facebook was coming out. we saw they sold google, priceline and apple. now what we've seen with facebook debacle, they put their money back in here. so i think there is a floor in apple. and it's probably poise today move higher from there. >> coming up on "halftime report," the long shot trade of risk and potentially bigger reward as the halftime team preps for the belmont. and money in motion trade after
trade there. >> that's bizarre. >> yeah. a lot of folks have been in here for the last couple days selling short-dated vix calls, either at the money or in the money calls. we talked about that monday. now, just as brian said on "fast money" last night, they've gone out and sort of bought these kind of spreads, judge. strangles and straddles out in august in september. and just as we were coming back from break here we see this little blip to the upside, which probably means somebody did a little more of that covering with the further out options. >> yeah. i'm just wondering if that's just a bad trade or something in the vix because that spike was unusual, obviously. and i was also going to say, in fact, if you have money going into treasuries as a safe haven bet and then to see the vix so much lower, that's interesting in and of itself, right? you have some people making that safe haven play, but not a lot of fear with it if the vix is breaking down at the same time. >> right. and especially surprising,
judge, because of course next sunday, not this sunday, but the following sunday's when we have all that information coming out of greece, which is what everybody was so scared about in the first place. and now they've been aggressively selling. so they're not really buying into that fear anymore. >> yeah. all right. let's move on. let's get our own traders long shot picks for stocks with chances at triple digit gains this year. patty edwards, kick us off. >> this one was really looking like it was going to go to the glue factory over the past year as opposed to the racetrack. but energy solution, symbol es, they are in the nuclear clean-up area, they have a fukushima contract and they're big in the uk, they have contracts in canada. i think it could be a triple digit winner. >> grasso, you have one for me? >> it's going to be sprint. it's been a long haul for sprint. >> long haul for you. >> exactly. i'm still hoping for it at this point. but, you know, once you get
above $3, technically i think you start to see a lot of money come out of those safety bets and start to take another gamble on sprint. >> brian kelly. >> first let me say i think investing in long shots without the odds is just more like gambling than inveing. you need to have an edge. my view on this would be clean energy, clne. it's come down about 50% off the 26th highs back in march. if it were to go back to those highs, you'd have a double on your hands. great play on the natural gas transportation industry. >> all right. quickly, doc. >> all right. because of the explosion in obesity and the subsequent diabetes and all the rest, judge -- >> i said quickly, doc. >> arna, sir. buying that. and i own it. >> final trades next. [ male announcer ] introducing a powerful weapon
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