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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 9, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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gary, thank you very much. have a great afternoon. what have you got on fast money? >> our series running with the bulls, analysts who are bullish even though it's bearish. >> market heading down, now 85 points on the dow. >> halftime reports starts now. guys, thanks so much. four hours to go until the close on monday on wall street. here is where we stand. want to let you know we're still waiting on president obama to appear in the east room of the white house to make that statement on extending the bush tax cuts for those people making less than $250,000 a year when mr. obama appears at that podium you see there, we'll take you there. let's check the markets. we are at session lows. there's a lot of red on the board as you see on the s&p 500 heat map. s&p down 8 points or so,
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one-half of two-thirds percent, industrials off 85, earnings season getting kicked off after the bell today with alcoa, nasdaq down today as well by about two-thirds of 1%. take a look at what gold and crude oil are doing today. getting a little lift, the weaker dollar versus euro certainly helping in this picture today, the ten-year treasury yield continues to fall 151 is where it currently sits. here is what we're following right now on halftime. biggest bearing on the street, morgan stanley strategist adam parker joins us with his case on a 15% drop in stocks by year's end. earnings outlook, alcoa kicking off tonight. how should you be setting up for second quarter earnings season. on the brink all week, doing a series of stocks, left for dead. starting to show some signs of life. today's pick green mountain. should you be buying that rebound story. welcome to the "halftime report." again, we are waiting on the president. we'll take you to the white house as soon as mr. obama appears in the east room as you
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see there. lots of trade today as there always is. let's get right to the story with earnings. simon, what do you expect from alcoa and how will it set the tone in how you will be trading. >> i think alcoa is sort of disappointing a little bit. talk about earnings generally going forward. a lot of discounting and decrease in earnings going forward, it's been reported a lot. my question, at what point does it become so low you want to started investing. i think you'll be safe. not an earnings season to be a hero in. what are the strengths, housing. talk about wells fargo, diy companies. those sort of names. >> wells fargo getting an upgrade today in which we will discuss in more detail later. joe terranova, what's your trade today? >> all bouse earnings. i want to point out where we are on the s&p. we're 1348, actually the midpoint in the s&p 500 which is
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149 for the year. that's despite the fact you've got u.s. ten-year treasury trading 1.5, close to 1.43. we've got all this bad news yet the market is still hanging in flirting with the upper end of the range. the thing to me that is most important about this week will be friday it will be jpmorgan financial earnings. was jamie dimon correct in his expectation of what earnings would be. i needy want to buy. futures the if anythings back you will trade to the upside in this market. >> stephanie on the floor of the new york stock exchange today, what's your trade? >> we continue to trade around core positions. i just want to get back to your alcoa comments. i think we're going to learn a lot tonight in terms of what's going on in the macro. we know macrois slowing. they have exposure to truck, auto, aero, packaging. we're going to learn a lot. based on what they say you can make derivative calls and buy stocks. we actually have been taking money off the table on boeing
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because the trade worked into the paris air show and putting into cvs today because that stock is down. i think that's the story, still has legs to it. >> on that note stephanie, i heard one analyst describe alcoa firing on all cylinders but the issue to it and companies in that space are metal prices. >> absolutely. i wouldn't be buying alcoa. i think, you know, this company can't -- they can barely make money when the aluminum prices are going higher. clearly they are going to have some head winds there. again, i think you'll learn a lot from end market demand and learn a lot about the global picture and how it sets up into earnings season. >> dr. j, what's the trade on your radar today? >> well, june, what stephanie is talking about certainly plays into what i'm looking at. with nat gas, it's made a rebound, yes, it has. it's still quite inexpensive which bodes well for alcoa as does the demand stephanie spoke of. last week we started to see not
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aggressive plays but mildly bullish plays, rules, calendar spreads in alcoa where basically people are betting the stock drifts up over the next two weeks. in other words they are saying whatever happens with earnings here as far as alcoa goes, they think it's a mild drift higher after the earnings come out. >> all right. he is the most bearish strategist on wall street. with the q 2 kicking into high gear today he's warning investors we're in for disappointment. adam parker chief strategist for morgan stanley. welcome to the show. let me tell you right on the top we're waiting for the president. we'll got to the east wing of the white house and we'll pick the conversation up with you right after that. keep that in mind. >> no problem. >> disappointment for earnings. >> i think the earnings season will have less upside. i don't think we need to look at any earnings tonight to know that. you've seen it from technology,
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machinery, retail, all the economically sensitive sectors. you take that combined with strengthening dollar lower ten-year you saw in the second quarter and you'll have less upside to earnings season. the debate more is it in the price or not than will it be disappointing. >> the consensus for the s&p, 100. >> the fear of departure next year 2013, estimates analysts have are 118, we're at 99. we think as the year unfolds they will continue to bring down their 2013 estimates. >> is that how you get to 1167 year end target for s&p, you are the low man on the street with that number. >> when the market goes lower other people move down. what we're going to do, take that view of 2013 earnings, take a view of what the right multiple is, multiply them together, get a lower outlook. our base case is 10% lower. we factor in the fact we think
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things have a chance of being good. >> assuming this comes to fruition, where do you want to be in the market between now and then. >> defensively positioned, mega caps have done well. we like mega caps. sectors we like are health care and utilities, better estimates, higher dividend yield than referenced the ten-year yield. >> joe terranova has a question as we continue to look at that picture of the east room at the white house. we'll breakaway and go this any moment. >> when lou at the particular sectors going to report over the next few weeks, we know what's coming out of the energy space, materials, industrials, is it the consumer discretionary, financial names that will give us what the direction is going to be and add technology to that as well for the remainder of the year. >> i don't disagree financials could be a good barometer. i think it depends on if you're talking about nonlife insurance, big banks versus regionals.
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i think the ten-year low make it difficult for net interest margins to be very strong, it's going to depend on other activities in lending as a barometer. consumer discretionary okay, lower oil price helps on the margin. some of the restaurants probably look okay. i think it's a little more challenging for high-end retailers, a number of big names we've told you trends are slowing. i'd look for inventory in that consumer space. >> they are starting to file into the room here at the east end of the white house. the president making a statement regarding tax cuts. solving this so-called fiscal cliff could that change year end target if it comes out more favorable than people expect. >> it's an important area. our economists think 500 basis points impact. >> save that thought. the president has just entered the room and we'll listen to president obama. >> thank you very much. [ applause ] >> thank you. everybody have a seat. have a seat. well, good afternoon, everybody.
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>> good afternoon. >> i'm glad things have cooled off a little bit. i know folks were hot. we're here today to talk about taxes, something that everybody obviously cares deeply about. i've often said our biggest challenge right now isn't just to reclaim all the jobs we lost to the recession, it's to reclaim the security that so many middle class americans have lost over the past decade. our core mission as an administration and as a country has to be, yes, putting people back to work but also rebuilding an economy where that work pays off, an economy in which everybody can have the confidence if you work hard you can get ahead. what's holding us back from meeting these challenges, it's not a lack of plans, not a lack of ideas, it is a stalemate in
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this town in washington between two very different views about which direction we should go in as a country. and nowhere is that stalemate more pronounced than on the issue of taxes. many members of the other party believe that prosperity comes from the top down, so that if we spend trillions more on tax cuts for the wealthiest americans, that that will somehow unleash jobs and economic growth. i disagree. i think they are wrong. i believe our prosperity always comes from an economy that's built on a strong and growing middle class, one that can afford to buy the products our business is selling. a middle class that can own homes and send their kids to college and save enough to retire on. that's why i've cut middle class taxes every year that i've been
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president. by $3600 for the typical middle class family. let me repeat. since i've been in office, we've cut taxes for the typical middle class family by $3600. [ applause ] i wanted to repeat that because sometimes there's a little misinformation out there and folks get confused about it. moreover, we've tried it their way. it didn't work. at the beginning of the last decade, congress passed trillions of dollars in tax cuts that benefited the wealthiest americans more than anybody else. we were told that it would lead to more jobs and higher incomes for everybody and prosperity would start at the top but then trickle down. what happened? the wealthy got wealthier but
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most americans struggled. instead of creating more jobs, we had the slowest job growth in half a century. instead of widespread prosperity, the typical family saw its income fall. and in just a few years we went from record surpluses under bill clinton to record deficits we are now still struggling to pay off today. so we don't need more topdown economics. we tried that theory. we've seen what happens. we can't afford to go back to it. we need policies that grow and strengthen the middle class. policies that help create jobs, that make education and training more affordable, that encourage businesses to start up right here in the united states. so that's why i believe it's time to let the tax cuts for the wealthiest americans, folks like myself, to expire.
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[ applause ] by the way, i might feel differently, because it's not like i like to pay taxes. i might feel differently if we were still in surplus, but we've got this huge deficit. everybody agrees we need to do something about these deficits and debts. so the money we're spending on these tax cuts for the wealthy is a major driver of our deficit, a major contributor to our deficit, costing us a trillion dollars over the next decade. by the way, these tax cuts for the wealthiest americans are also the tax cuts that are least likely to promote growth. so we can't afford to keep that up. i'm not proposing anything radical here. i just believe anybody making
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over $250,000 a year should go back to the income tax rates we were paying under bill clinton, back when our economy created nearly 23 million new jobs, the biggest budget surplus in history, and plenty of millionaires to boot. this is not just my opinion. the american people are with me on this. poll after poll shows that's the case. and there are plenty of patriotic and very successful, very wealthy americans who also agree, because they know that by making that kind of contribution, they are making the country as a whole stronger. at the same time, most people agree that we should not raise taxes on middle class families or small businesses, not when so many folks are just trying to get by, not when so many folks are still digging themselves out of the hole that was created by this great recession that we had.
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and at a time when the recovery is still fragile. that's why i'm calling on congress to extend the tax cuts for the 98% of americans who make less than $250,000 for another year. [ applause ] if congress doesn't do this, millions of american families, including these good looking people behind me, could see their taxes go up by $2200 starting on january 1st of next year. that would be a big blow to working families. and it would be a drag on the entire economy. now, we can already anticipate, we know what those opposed to letting the high income tax cuts
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expire will say. they will say that we can't tax job creators. they will try to explain how this will be bad for small businesses. let me tell you, folks who create most new jobs in america are america's small business owners. i've cut taxes for small business owners 18 times since i've been in office. [ applause ] i've also asked congress repeatedly to raise tax cuts for entrepreneurs and wages. here is a thing you have to remember, the proposal i make today would extend these tax cuts for 97% of all small business owners in america. in other words, 97% of small businesses fall under the $250,000 threshold. [ applause ]
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so this isn't about taxing job creators, this is about helping job creators. i want to give them relief. i want to give those 97% a sense of permanence. i believe we should be able to come together and get this done. while i disagree on extending tax cuts for the wealth y because we just can't afford them, i recognize not everybody agrees with me on this. on the other hand, we all say we agree that we should extend the tax cuts for 98% of the american people. all right. everybody says that. the republicans say they don't want to raise taxes on the middle class. i don't want to raise taxes on the middle class. so we should all agree to extend the tax cuts for the middle class. let's agree to do what we agree on. right? [ applause ]
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that's what compromise is all about. let's not hold the vast majority of americans and our entire economy hostage while we debate the merits of another tax cut for the wealthy. we can have that debate -- [ applause ] >> we can have that debate but let's not hold up the thing we already agree on. in many ways the tax cut for wealthy americans will be decided by the outcome of the next election. my opponent will fight to keep them in place. i will fight to end them. but that argument shouldn't threaten you, shouldn't threaten 98% of americans who just want to know their taxes won't go up
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next year. middle class families and small business owners deserve that guarantee, that certainty. it will be good for the economy and it will be good for you. we should give you that certainty now. we should do it now. it will be good for you. it will be good for the economy as a whole. [ applause ] so my message to congress is this, pass a bill extending the tax cuts for the middle class. i will sign it tomorrow. pass it next week, i'll sign it next week. pass it -- you get the idea. [ laughter ] as soon as that gets done, we can continue to have a debate about whether it's a good idea to also extend the tax cuts for the wealthiest americans.
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i'll have one position the other side will have another and we'll have that debate. the american people can listen to that debate. then next year, once the election is over, things have calmed down a little bit, based on what the american people have said and how they have spoken during that election, we'll be in a good position to decide how to reform our entire tax code in a simple way that lowers rates and helps our economy grow and brings down our deficit, because that's something that we're going to have to do for the long-term. right now our top priority has to be giving middle class families and small businesses the security they deserve. you're the ones who are driving this recovery forward. [ applause ] you're the ones who are driving this recovery forward. i think it's time to widen the circle of opportunity and help
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more americans who work hard to get ahead. it's time we learned the lessons of our past and laid the foundation for a better future. that's what i'm focused on every day. i hope congress will join me in doing the right thing. thank you very much, all, for being here. thank you. [ applause ] >> president obama using the big stage of the east room of the white house to make his case for why the bush tax cuts should be extended only for those making below $250,000 a year, not for wealthier americans. the president saying we don't need more top down economics, in his words we need policies that strengthen the middle class. let's get to eamon javers who is at the white house for us. eamon, this seems to be a clear attempt by the president to change the conversation from friday's jobs report. he tells congress he'll sign it, though they pass it, though we know it's dead on arrival in the republican controlled house. >> it's a little loud in here. the president has a loud group
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of supporters. he's shaking hands as he makes his way out of the room. president surrounding himself with middle class americans he said would benefit from tax cuts for those that make under $250,000 a year. a political year. talked about his opponent, wrapped his arms around middle class and small business owners to own that turf. he said he already cut taxes for the middle class 18 times. he also pointed out $250,000 threshold, that 97% of small businesses in america are under that threshold so that is the key message he wants to give today, small businesses will be helped, not hurt by the proposal. back to you. >> thanks so much. eamon javers, at the white house. we'll take a quick break. on the other side trade the fiscal cliff the president spoke about. we'll hear more from morgan stanley's adam parker to see how
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welcome back to halftime. let's bring in adam parker with morgan stanley. we greatly appreciate your patience standing with us while we hear from the president making his case why tax cuts
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should be held for those making under $250,000. before the president spoke i asked you how all this, fiscal cliff, could effect the stock market in general. >> a 500 basis points impact from the fiscal cliff in 2013. most people believe it will be benignly resolved and nowhere near that large. the reality is, it's going to be contentious. my conclusion is you shouldn't pay a high multiple for earnings. have you a huge cliff, polarized house, fiscal stimulus, what we're talking about today, unbelievable accommodative monetary policy and companies have record profit margin right now. why would you pay a high multiple for earnings. you really shouldn't. that's what i believe over time, paying a lower multiple for earnings. >> europe has its own cliff. we have to worry about china and
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demand for that country as well. >> we wrote u.s. deficit/debt european sovereign crisis and fears will weigh on the market multiple. i don't see why that changes at all. frankly i feel a little more confidence earnings trajectory is deteriorating relative to what i thought a couple months ago. it's about being too high and 2013 too high. i'm starting to get some evidence that's panning out. the issue is the companies are in good shape. good balance sheets, loss of cash. the government is not in good shape with deficit/debt. you're going to be in these bouts of worried about growth and policy impacts over the next couple of years. that's a certainty. >> i'm surrounded by traders today, adam, looking at your data and trying to take in that from your competitors as well on the street in making their own trading decisions between now and then. simon baker sitting next to me has a question. >> hi, adam, clearly sentiment is negative. yourself and analysts and
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companies downgrading it, some stage become bullish, at what stage is that going to be, do you think? >> i think everyone wants to be, romanticize their a contrarian bull, but i'd be careful about that. one of the things you can doo look for when stocks are missing, do they start going up. you saw that last october near the market bottom, quality cyclicals and industrials went up. generally we wrote this week more downside guidance in the last years, companies guiding still going down a lot as a general rule. i think it's still early to call you're a contrarian bull. i think you need to see companies guiding down, going up, discount as people believe the new guidance to get confidence tha confidence in that trade. >> how much of an issue is currency going to end up being for earnings?
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>> it's a big deal. in our preview we talked about lower earnings. in our review, things that impact s&p earnings at the macrolevel, strengthening dollars, lower oil, lower ten-year yield, macrofactors impact earnings to a negative. over the full year, every 1% that the dollar strengthens against the euro is about 60 basis points in earnings over the full year. a 10% move over a full year on earnings if you stretch for a 12-month period. >> adam you're defensive but recommending being overweight materials and also technology. can you go through your rational on that. >> that's not true. i'm not sure why you said that. overweight two sectors, over weight utilities and health care, underweight there. we may be mathematically
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fractionally above bench weight, tech, above over for technicals. we have been telling pms a more attractive value in megacap tech than megacap industrials. in materials a few months back we added a couple of chemical names to the portfolio. for those who aren't aware, the s&p is 3% in the materials sector, so is not a huge bet. we think low nat gas means some of the chemical business will earn free cash going forward. official overweights in utilities and health care where we see better dividends, better deployment of capital and better estimate achievability. >> dr. adam parker, morgan stanley's chief u.s. equities strategist. adam, great to see you again. thanks for spending time and your patience today. >> talk to you again. see you soon. >> coming up on halftime, three trades that should be on your radar, are coal and steel stocks on the verge of a comeback?
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welcome back to "halftime." i'm at the wall for top trades, halfway through the trading day. dollar tree, the stock is off 3.5% downgraded to underweight at morgan stanley, analysts citing a quadrupling in the stock over the last three years and a risk of slowing comp sales. simon, in the last weeks we got negative. now a downgrade. yes, the stock looks great. what do you do here? >> it was priced to perfection. that was the comment coming out from morgan stanley. there's a reason it was priced to perfection. in terms of u.s. slowing, hard line in china, people spending more and more money. you've got to go with momentum. i think this stock can go higher. >> speaking of what's happening in china look at fxi on the wall trading lower. chinese stocks having their worst day joe terranova in a
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month as you look at the choppy chart. >> what successful traders and investors should be doing is trading monetary policies out of china not holdings in fxi, china mobile and construction bank, seek out dependability, seek out certainty. you do that through a johnson, delivers 30% of earnings, even a nike, apple, mcdonald's, that gets you in the hands of the chinese consumer. >> take a look at facebook trading higher, 3%. $1 billion of instagram could be approved by ftc by mid august, settled patents and strategic alliance with yahoo!. also reports about job post site weighing on linkedin. all in all decent day for facebook. >> very decent day. in fact, the last few -- four of the last five days you've seen good upside call buying. today, judge, we saw people
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taking profits on the near-term call bets they sold out of 31 calls, for instance, that more than doubled in the last -- since the last trading day. and they rolled up to the august calls. that's a bet stock keeps going on this trajectory and gets back to the ipo old price. >> wouldn't that be a miracle, huh, doc? >> that would be. a lot of people happy about that. now that i'm chasing it with them, i'd be happy, too. >> a program note, citi's mark ma haney, speaking publicly about the stock since its coverage. you don't want to miss the conversation tomorrow on "halftime." alcoa will kick off earnings season today. investors monitoring aluminum giant for signs the european debt crisis and global contraction will dent corporate profits.
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medalist -- metal and mining analyst joins us. we'll give you a gold medal, what did i say. take a look at what alcoa is going to deliver after the bell. one analyst saying they are firing on all cylinders. when you're up against depressed prices, what can you do? >> absolutely. we've got the company posting a penny earnings after the close. that's versus consensus of 5 cents. when you break down businesses, upstream and downstream. flat roll products, pick up and cyclicals, as well as downstream. aerospace still going strong. the key area of concern for us is that their upstream business with aluminum prices down as much as they are, expecting aluminum smelting business to post a loss in the quarter. that's a primary drag on earnings for them. >> turn our attention if we can to coal stocks. we know the coal story has been
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depressi depressing, figuratively and literally. number of our guys and gals on the trading desk have talked about the stocks here. what's your take? >> our take is you've had these stocks. yes, they have underperformed first half of the year because of low natural gas, also weak power generation. as we look through the summer in the back half, what we're thinking, sharp production cuts across the board. natural gas prices beginning to recover some. as well, the potential to go from coal to gas during summer months really switches. the combination of pickup and demand from metallurgical coal, drawn down inventories. historically when you track the was coal beyond seasonal trends they tend to do well. i think we're pretty close to a bottom on coal stocks. >> brian, thanks very much. good to have you with us on the
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show. you made that call on coal recently. you saw while it was a long downward slide on the chart we put up, right at the end on the bottom right-hand corner of the screen if we put it up again, see it higher, you got it right on the money. >> more of a technical buy, up 25% in the last two weeks. easy money made. a lot of people shorting stocks. fundamentals weak against it. easy money on the short side on a lot of stocks. >> joe terranova, what has your attention. >> i don't like anything about the coal space, steel space, institutional money flows, they will not be there the remainder of the year. there is no evidence to suggest there will be an uptick in thermal pricing, which is what the environment needs to move off these lows. it's a space you should take off your screen until 2013. >> stephanie link, i'll give you the last quick comment on coal. >> i think it's interesting so many companies announced cuts. i'd rather play natural gas, southwest energy or a lot of
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different names, devon energy, better buys. >> nat gas on the upswing of late, three bucks or so for a nice change there. coming up on "halftime," friendly neighborhood spider-man stock trade plus stocks showing life after a big tumble. is green mountainoff back from the brink? kicking off our series next on "halftime." e to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen.
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welcome back to "halftime" report. a buy rating today. why he says wells is one of the most respected banks. ken, welcome to "halftime." >> thanks, scott. >> we get a lot of agreement on that note. a lot of the guys on the show have picked wells fargo. you say it's more than just a hiding spot. what do you mean? >> we think wells fargo has offensive and defensive characteristics. lately bank tape got tougher to invest in. wells acts as a defensive name, helping prevent downside risk for investors. on the up side growing mortgage business, really strong, best deposit growth franchises and among banks from dividend and share buybacks, could be above
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average in terms of the amount we can see return to shareholders in the next few years. >> you think it will be your standout through bank earnings. >> it's not so much a call on the quarter itself. we think they will have a decent result that will show upside if the mortgage bank does outperform. over the course of time, a great portfolio holdout that can provide good upside bias and downside protection. >> dr. j? >> i like wells because the lack of that exposure he spoke to, scott, in particular because of all these suits that are going to be coming out based on the libor investigations. so as far as one of them that you could accumulate, i agree with them here on the wells fargo call. but this capitol hi which would you stay away from? >> things we're concerned about banks with spread net interest income, deposits. some of the commercial oriented banks that are just focused on loan growth but without the
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benefit of lower funding cost. names like zions, the trust and processing group, bank of new york, northern trust and state street, we still feel like the operating revenue environment is going to be tougher on that group relative to other subsectors of financials. >> stephanie link, do you have a question? >> ken, your numbers are actually lower than the street for 2013. does that concern you numbers have to come down. as those negative revisions come out, the stock could weaken? >> it's a fair point on estimates. we're below consensus for the entire regional bank universe. we think we've been more punitive on net interest declines we expect over the course of the next few years. we think the buy side built that in as well. so we're not as concerned about the absolute revisions, if they are modest. we also think wells own revisions could be less than other banks talking about. >> ken, thanks so much. we'll talk to you soon.
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stephanie link, i gather from the tone of your question there and substance of it you don't really like wells. >> it's not that i don't like wells. i feel like everybody likes wells. is kind of the consensus. number revisions are a big deal in my view. if he's right and numbers come down, i think he'll get a better opportunity to buy at a better price. >> joe, quickly. >> one of the reasons i'm not at wells is expense management. wells disappointed the street over the last three quarters. they have to hit their efficiency targets between 55 and 59. they haven't done that. >> all week we're looking at stocks back from the brink. after being quiet on the street they are mounting rallies. today green mountain, down 80% from its all-time high, 80% move to the upside in two weeks. is it time to dive in or stay away? to help bring in the call bring in piper jeffries nicole reagan. welcome back to the show. what is that answer?
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is it enough of a turn around in the stock to hang your hat on? >> if you can accept the risk, it's still a very bumpy ride. on the downside, overdone. on the upside, even in the short run, overdone as well. no catalyst behind the recent run in stock. >> let's break up from positive risk, negative risk. cash machine higher than average, profit margins is how the street speaks of this. obviously you have the accounting overhang in the s.e.c. you have the boardroom drama as well, "leaving the board, stiller forcedo out as chairman >> risk side, groceries selling more, discount. the other thing is the ceo has publicly announced his attentions to retire. and so there's execution risks in terms of who the successor is. on the flip side lower green
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coffee cost and no one believing this story reflected in the 80% it was down year-to-date as a week or so ago. >> simon. >> a massively shorted stock. i agree. i think we're close to a bottom. incremental good news, the stock is going up. in terms of a trade, i think it's great. >> nicole, do you have a comment on that? the short interest in it alone is a story to follow. >> i think the comment about short-term trade makes absolute sense. our bias for the long run is look to its large cap sibling starbucks, they benefit from the same thing, single serve coffee growth with no risk profile. all they have is upside potential from this high-margins single serve business. >> nicole, great to have you on the show. thank you so much. nicole miller regan. you said -- >> i think when fend menls add
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up to technicals it's a buy. >> even without risks. >> the upside risk, downside, stock down 80% in the short-term, upside, again, a trade. any time put trades, got to put a stop-loss on it. get in and trade with downside, maybe 40% on the upside. >> i see herb greenberg standing in the newsroom shaking his head. i was waiting for him to yell at you about that. >> what's he drinking. >> sizzling heat sending corn up 20% in a month. what's the smartest way to play today? bye, herb. we're making our pit stop next. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch.
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don't miss "power lunch." the big deal of the day is wellpoint and we have the cfo. more details on the way? did the supreme court's health care decision impa thakt buyout? why china is so intent on spying on you. when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, killer sharks closing beaches and scaring the daylights out of swimmers on the east and west coasts. take a bite out of "power lunch." [ male announcer ] feeling like a shadow of your former self?
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welcome welcome back. corn, wheat and soybeans continue to surge among the sizzling temperatures in the midwest. jeff kilburg joining us now. looks like the heat eased a bit but not in the movements of these stocks. >> no, judge. we are seeing fireworks still here in chicago. the loudest in the pits. you're right. another limit up day, up nearly 5% but right now talking to friends at indiana grain company and the farmers are producing but stories about the have and have notes. north of i-80 production of grains. south they do not. price discovery in the market is now. i think $8 corn and $18 soybeans
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are coming. >> apologize for having to be so quick but we'll hit you back again soon. back with final trades on the other side of the break. cyber espionage is one of the biggest threats to the security. david faber looks at the risk in tonight's premier of "cyber e y espiona espionage" tonight at 9:00 p.m. simon? >> you know, faber's done a great piece on this and sen mantic is the best in the space. >> all right. tonight on cnbc, 9:00 eastern, tune in for that premier. the chinese threat hosted by david faber. final trades next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i'm constantly working my screens. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 checking the charts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 looking for support, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 resistance, breakouts, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a few other tricks that i'll keep to myself. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's how i trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i do it all with charles schwab, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 because their streetsmart edge platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 helps me trade quickly, intuitively. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 staying on top of the market is key!
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