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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 16, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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to the best finish since april 27th. nasdaq up tonight 31 points as you can see. that does it for "closing bell." follow me on twitter and on google plus @mariabartiromo. stay with cnbc. "fast money" starts right now. stocks tip-toeing higher, but the bears are growling. >> interestingly we comp on the air today, and you're starting to short the s&p. why? >> it's really your second opportunity here to sell stocks and buy bonds. we think growth continues to slow, in the only globally with what the chinese said last night but locally we think consumption in the third quarter for the u.s. is going to be a big problem. >> and they are getting louder. >> i think the market drops 150 points on the s&p, we will have qe-3 and 4. >> karen's keeping her cool and tim always trades to the beat of his own drum.
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fresh from the trading floor, this is "fast money." live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. stocks rise again as treasury investors continue to sell the dow. in fact, only 29 points away from a four and a half year closing high so the question we pose to you tonight. is the safety trade over? should you be adding more risk to your portfolio at this point? you know the bond numbers. we've seen a surge in treasury yields and dug up a a lot of numbers in terms of the valuations of various sectors which have led the markets higher. defensive sectors, utilities, consumer staples, and what have we found? we found that they are in fact trading at a huge percentage above their historical average when you take a look at it on a pe basis. tim, should we be getting concerned that the markets are getting a little bit toppy here? >> should be concerned about buying expensive companies. certainly there's danger in going after the same places that have worked when in fact a lot of these companies, and we've seen it, those that have missed have really been punished but we
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saw from cisco tonight is i would argue a company that's behaved like a utility starts to give something back, in other words, shows that corporate america is starting to rethink the whole game plan, but a 50-basis point move in the ten-year is a very impressive event because i think it's come on the back of growth and i think it's come on the back of easing of the global, you know, risk fears, and i think it's very positive. major, major resistance levels in the number of indices, those we consolidated around for a week and those we look like we pushed above. don't go after the same thing. rotation is on, and i think you're seeing it. >> take a look at the bottom half of the graph, showed you some of the sectors trading at a premium of the historical averages but a part of the averages where they are trading below their historic averages, technology and materials, trading below, so is the rotation beyond for investors? >> i don't think a full rotation is on currently, and the ultimate question is the world
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is absent of growth. where are you going to get the reliable growth in terms of earnings? and i don't think you can dismiss the performance today of cisco. clearly you've got investors that are chasing and applauding that move higher in the dividend. you've got the apple halo effect, september 12th, iphone 5 release. it's technology. it's technology, technology. that's where the growth is. and if you look back upon the last 11 years, in 106 those 11 years, if you got into the xlk, mid to late august by december 31st, it was higher than what you purchased it. to me technology is the place to go. >> karen? >> i'm a little bit skeptical. i mean, it's quite a nice run, and we still have a lot of issues out there. europe has not been solved unless i've missed something the last few weeks. come september we'll see a lot of issues come to the front burner that i think are still yet to be resolved. i don't know that we have a clear path out. i think now is the time to be taking some profits or buying some relatively cheap protection
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if you want to hang on to your loans? >> i think there's a much bigger question here, and that question is the run that we've seen the bond market over? we've seen a major backup in ten-year rates which equates to 35 bips, equates to a 3% loss in principal if you own the ten-year. that's a big thing, so i put on more risk. actually more invested now than i have been, and the reason being, not because i think that growth is coming back. in fact, i don't. but i think the draghi gave us a game plan, a road map, and that's what's going to take the map higher. kicking the can down the road is a very effective strategy as markets are at their highs, at least in the u.s., so i'm going to go with it. the other thing is my caution is that the backup in the ten-year could be occasioned by the fact that i can't find anybody who thinks that there's going to be anything going on at jackson hole. >> so nobody -- >> nobody is looking at me that i'm talking to. i'm looking for qe3.
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>> what steve is talking about, merkel out today with some sense of urgency. she said time is pressing, i believe was the court, and that they are very much in line with the ecb's defense of the euro. didn't say how they would do that. combine that with premier wen in china saying they need to do everything they can, second time he's said that in months, right before data comes out in china which may or may not indicate they are much weaker. policy is where you need it. places where i don't think we do need it, and markets are getting a chance to rally for the right reasons, and if you look at the housing permits today, again, the building permits, four-year highs on that number which is very much of a forward-looking indicator about the strength of the housing market, you get fantastic follow through in this country. no, i don't think they are going to be lining up to give more money. >> mike coe on the options desk. i think you understand where the rally is at this point but are you seeing any options in the investor pits where they are
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growing leery of the sectors that are fully valued at this point? >> a little bit. we are starting to see people step in and buy puts in names like walmart that were obviously up very sharply over the course of the last couple of months, and some of the other sort of safety trades that people mentioned, a lot of these things don't move around that violently, so the options are exceptionally cheap and that can tempt people into saying maybe i'd rather own some calls and the names that have done very well here, putting puts on the stocks that i own, not all dividend examples are the same. microsoft pays 2.7%, and i don't put that in the same camp as a verizon. you know, verizon is a safety play, a place to try to capture some yield but i think it's overvalued here, but i think what you have to do taking a look at the safety stocks, there are yield plays not necessarily the same as the others like the utilities. >> all right. to that point, mike, cisco's pe ratio, by the way, right now is 27% lower than its five-year historical average. 12.8 is the current pe and the
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historical average is 17.5. cisco, not a bad yielder. >> not a bad yielder, but also growing slower than it's ever grown over the last five years. government issues are coming, they are cutting back on spending. that's not where i would go. i would start to sell the higher yielding stocks. i took some verizon off the table a couple weeks ago. that trade, if the bond market is over, that's over. >> facebook shares got slammed today as the first of several lockup periods. the stock hit new lows. joining us is the co-head of research, rich greenfield. i know you've been negative on this stock basically out of the gate, but in terms of the lockuppics pierees, we've got a couple of big ones still to come. in october there's 2.5 million shares coming to market. in november there's 1.33 billion shares coming to market. how does this factor into your view of how the stock trades? >> well, this is the baby lockup. >> yeah. >> you said it exactly. this is really the pre-show of what we're going to show over
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the course of the next few months. remember, the people who got shares today, you know, are the large ipo-selling institutions. the employees who got stock, you know, very early on in facebook, those shares, which some have been traded in the second market, some of them are obviously still owned by employees at very low original levels, those start to unlock starting in october, going through mid-november, and so that's where, you know, from a technical standpoint you certainly have a far bigger issue to come than what you experienced today. obviously volume was very heavy in the stock versus the 100-day moving average. the real question in terms of how does it handle and impact the stock? normally a lockup can be a good thing if investors are really excited to own a stock. the issue we're struggling with right now advertising on mobile is just plain hard and the road ahead for facebook is anything but clear. >> rich, it's karen. so let me ask you. where, if anywhere, would you be a buyer of this stock? where does it give you enough discount to say, all right, i'll
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step up in front of the lockups that are coming due the next couple of months? >> that's a great question, and what we're struggling with is kind of the bigger picture fact, you know, business models that bid monetization against experience usually are not a good thing, so what we're looking forward to to understand when to be positive on facebook and we go to a buy rate, really trying to figure out when does the advertising experience or their monetization experience really excite us? because right now what we're seeing is more and more advertising being pumped in. i heard someone else talking about this earlier on cnbc. they are pumping advertising into the mobile news feed, and it's not a good experience. i mean, literally, staring at my phone as we speak, and the first thing in my news feed is a mitt romney ad, so you're starting to litter, especially the beginning part of facebook on a moving scene not very exciting advertising. you don't expect it within a news feed on a mobile device.
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this is really the central issue. on a mobile device the screen isn't that big. if you see advertising, more noticeable. it's dead in the line of your sight, disrupting what you're there for, and maybe most importantly if the creative is bad, you notice it a heck of a lot more and that's what we're really struggling with. when do we get excited by what they are doing in advertising and monetization versus what they have done so far? >> rich, what can they do to monetize mobile? >> well, they have talked about having incredible data meaning they have a cell phone or they are on a cell phone. they know where you are. they know who your friends are and know the businesses that you're either at or businesses that you would like. there would seem to be some types of large long-term opportunities in geolocation, local commerce. now, that being said, there's a lot of companies going after that. could you have jack dorsey on and talk about square and what they are trying to do. obviously companies like groupon, i mean, there's a long list of companies, foursquare, for instance, trying to attack this opportunity, so facebook
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won't be alone in this. but it would seem like something beyond traditional advertising. >> right less. >> especially with it not very targeted advertising. we've been blogging over the last several weeks about the repetitiveness of the advertising we're seeing from brands like walmart, samsung and target. every day we get the same unexcited, unappealing walmart ad. >> so rich, is there a price at which you would buy? is there some sort of, you know, book value analysis, parts analysis, whatever it is, that would give you a share price at which you would say at this price it is worth wading into facebook? >> i think certainly the current price is not there. is there a level, if we get better signs in terms of the growth trajectory of their advertising, and, remember, we've had the outside shock over the course of the last few weeks. i mean, we certainly got it wrong on terms of our view on zynga. when you look at how much the gaming side of the business is just collapsing because people are moving over to cell phones for gaming, where facebook doesn't participate in the same way. i mean, that's a business line.
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we took our numbers down for facebook last week. we really hacked into the payment side of the business, and so it's not just about advertising. it's also the payment side. >> sounds like there is no price per share that you would give us at which you would buy fook. too many movers. >> no prognosticators on where we would put a buy on the stock. certainly not anywhere where we are given the profile of growth that we're seeing. >> rich greenfield of btig. is there a price you would buy facebook, dim? >> to take a slightly contrarian view, i don't know if rich was disappointed he was getting a mobile ad or a mobile ad from mitt romney. >> to be seen. >> third highest today since the ipo. everybody knew this was coming up. only 14% of the 1.9 billion shares that can come out. people were spec late. there's a trade in here, too. i'm not saying that i follow facebook as anything more than a market participant who sees the kind of volume and move here. people have speculated against
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this thing, and this stock is not going to zero. people that are locked up in this name may believe there's a lot more value than is shown in the market at this level. >> you have to talk about the fundamentals of the levels. q1, 45%, 42% in q2 2012. the growth trajectory has peaked. there's a fundamental problem with this company. how do you monetize mobile? mark zuckerberg and the board did not tell you that on the earnings conference call. that's the problem with facebook. it's fundamentally flawed right now. can you make all the tech arguments that you want. it's a bearish momentum-type stock, but until they tell you fundamentally how they are going to restart the growth -- >> where does zuckerberg begin? >> he was on the earnings call. >> the day-to-day person, not the cfo person, the person who has the overall vision. >> he's a visionary. >> the visionary --
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>> the valuation is still really expensive. come back to looking at google would faces the same issues about monetization, mobile monetization. i think they are much further along in being able to do it and yet, you know, the valuation, 15.9 times versus facebook at 40. 40 only seems attractive because it was at 77 at one point. that's an irrelevant piece of information. >> right. >> that somehow sticks in our heads. >> yeah. coming up next, setting the record straight on all the latest takeover talk to hit the street. plus, is apple about the way to change the way you watch tv? stick around and find out why the apple ecosystem's next stop would be your living room and who it could spell trouble for. much more "fast" ahead. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,
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welcome back to "fast money"
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live from nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. the gap is a big mover in the after-hour session in its earnings. brian is. >> up a third of a percent. they beat by a penny. sales up 28% year over year. they did raise full-year eps guidance but still a little under where the street consensus, is and the best part of this in terms of positives, margins, handled inventories extremely well and their margins showed expansions well above street estimates. back to you. >> thanks very much. let's go on rumor patrol. coin star and electronic arts both getting a pop on speculation they are exploring sales to private equity firms. best buy shares jumped on similar expectations. which deal is most likely to happen, and how should you trade it? joe, interestingly you actually stepped in and bought coin star. is that perhaps on the depremis that a deal is in the offing?
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>> i think any pe firm, an amazon, would be doing proper diligence looking at this school. good free cash flow and have in essence what electronic arts and best buy don't have and what netflix hasn't been able to prove itself to have. i've talked about it in the past as the alternative to netflix because of the movie streaming deal that they have with verizon, and now they are going to bring these coffee kiosks, they have a relationship with starbucks. a great point of entry, and it restarts the conversation and gets the focal point back on a balance sheet that is pretty good. >> yeah. i think coin star is a good private equity model. i think the first one to go is best buy. >> why? >> it's so big. >> it is big. i'm not saying it's going to go with the price and maybe you take under, in a downward spiral. but the ceo is there who has his stock. apparently he's got funding, or so -- >> allegedly. >> we'll wait to see. i say apparently, but he's got some letters out there that's
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confident. let's do it, seen the lenders before and for the right price on the debt, and if it goes for a decent price, that's the first one to go. >> let's hit the option desk about all the rumors. mike, you noticed very sharp activity in coinstar in particular, why? >> i think a lot of times what happens is sometimes you have people who try to chase the stocks and other times in options markets we see people step in and say, okay, well, maybe this is not such a founded rumor, and one of the things that was trading today very actively was the august 50 puts over 470 trades. i think by the end of the day, over 12,000 contracts traded at an average price of 37 cents, and i think people saying basically what if tomorrow the news is a little bit different, a cheap way to play to the downside and if you own stock this might be a good way to stop yourself out and still play for more upside. >> catch more options action tomorrow and every friday 5:00. follow the show on twitter to get constant trade updates. apple has conquered computers and cell fence and could now be coming to your living room. "wall street journal" reporting
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apple could be trying to enter the cable set top box market. what would this mean for cable companies and set provideers? joining me is the associate portfolio manager from gamco investors. larry, a pleasure to speak with you. whenever apple enters an industry and partners up, it's almost a double-edge sword for the companies they partner with in that the companies often have to take some sort of costs on, such as subsidies for the teleco-s, where do you stand on how this impacts the companies? >> i think the cable companies have had a wonderful chance to watch the movie mostly from the sidelines, though when they have been in the content business, like comcast is right now and certainly glen britt at time warner cable has watched, it they understand how apple works, and they i think will be very cautious and only strike a deal that's protecting their -- their content which they pay highly for, and -- and i think though
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the key thing here with the cable industry, melissa, is that at the end of the day, it's not getting i think the respect that it -- that it deserves. it's won the battle of broadband. i think the numbers are very, very clear, and this will be a hugely important market in the future as broadband speeds get faster, et cetera, and as a consequence the -- the multiples on the stocks are still very reasonable, and i think what this shows is the cable industry has got a wonderful moat protecting its cash flow and in order to get into the tv business apple has to go through the cable companies, and they are really in the driver's seat, and that i think is more going to enhance the multiple, and i'm convinced they are clever enough not to give away the store. >> sure. >> as other businesses have. >> larry, it sounds like you think they will be going kind of in a slower pace, more of a set top box before going into full-fledged apple tv. if that's the case, one, do you think investors as an investor,
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is this going to be, you know, a big disappointment? how much is this being priced in? certainly the apple bulls out there have been talking about apple tv for a long time? accept top, a set top box, an extension of the existing kind of hockey puck that a lot of people that i have is not a game-changer for apple? >> oh, no. >> is this going it be a disappointment? >> i can't agree more. apple has 56 billion or so of -- they are only 110 million tv households, and a lot of them are connected to satellite, so we're talking about a very small individual universe of tv households, and if you make $100 of profit per unit which i think would be a very fair needle for apple. what it does move, and i think it's very important because it's low is the multiple. it shows that there's still a
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lot of ingenuity here, and, you know, i think they are getting their -- their toe in the door, but i think in terms of the cash flow, which inevitably will determine what's going to happen to apple, it's more important the ipad and the -- and the iphone, and, you know, when i look at hong kong and there's one apple store in hong kong and there were 150 people in the store at 10:30 in the morning and working in the store and they were all busy. >> right. >> i think tiffany has 17 jewelry stores just in hong kong, i see a very underpenetrated market, but this gets apple's eye -- investor's eye on apple, and i think will enhance the multiple and the multiple in my opinion vastly underrates the growth potential of the company. >> larry, going to leave it there. thanks for your time. larry haverty of gamco. the fact that apple may be moving more towards a set top box rather than a full fledged
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tv, analysts analyzing what price a tv would go on to market. we got that wrong if that's the case. >> it initially makes you think of the cable operators and the content providers, and i think of the run that we've had in disney which has been phenomenal this year and to a certain extent you've questioned the valuation and the performance itself. you wonder if this is in anticipation of what potentially could be some form of a partnership. apple and disney have had a long-standing relationship. i would think that that would be one of the first places that apple would partner in terms of contributing content to this project. >> let's go back to brian schactman at headquarters. he's got a market flash. brian? >> i wanted to inform you, kind of ironic that we have a conversation on apple on a light trading day. usually it trades 14 million shares but today it closed at an all-time high of 636.34. only three bucks and change or so from closing at a $600 billion market cap, 5 the 96 and
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change in that one as well. who would this thunk it? nobody talked about it. >> closed attin all-time high. thanks for that. was apple tv a factor in this run on apple, or was itnot? i mean, isn't this all about the iphone, the new iphone that's coming out in september? >> they said they didn't have enough sales people and cutting back staffers was a mistake indicating that they think demand is great, and i think that's more what you're getting. >> it's all about the phone and the new ipad, and the new software and new operating system that's coming up, but it's not about a set top box as you think about it. that's historically been the worst business in the world. really have to wonder what they are thinking about. i don't think at the end of the days the cable companies will let them in the backyard. not the music companies, not the dying album sales. >> making a lot of money. >> coming up next, one auto stock in the fast lane and serious buzz kill for retail names. telling you how to trade all the
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big movers from today's session right after this. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account.
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time now for pops and drops and movers you might have missed in today's session. pop for emc. up 3%. joe? >> heard many speculate on what's the ultimate cloud-computing trade. it's emc. i'm long it. talking today about usages of $5 billion of cash that they have. state law. >> interesting pop for gm. up 5%? >> difficult to fine the exact reason. when merkel came out and endorsed draghi's plan the speculation with gm and ford has been europe, that us cad the stock to bounce. >> dollar tree, down 1%. karen? >> that looks pretty good considering it's one point today the stock was down about $9. >> like a nanosecond. >> for a nanosecond. i don't know if those trades should have stood, but mildly disappointing. at the end of the day not so bad. >> a pop for cisco, up 9%. >> a $100 billion company that's moved 9% in three weeks.
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cisco valuation, much higher. >> drop for agilent? mike? >> the conference call was more disappoint when they said they were seeing the classic signs of a slowdown and exposure to academia and government spending as well, all signs of weakness. stock not that expensive but watch out. >> pop for ikea, the furniture known for its low-priced furniture. ikea will open hotels in belgium and poland and other companies. all the furniture in your room will come fully assembled. >> delayed reaction. >> hello. >> salivating. >> drooling on me. >> pop here for agco.
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>> disappointing sales in ag sales, corn production, who is going to make it up? it's going to be the brazilians. agco sells directly there. that's the trade. >> microsoft up 1%. ? >> i just moved this 260 billion market cap stock to the moon. traded off cisco. cisco's news was good. getting close to the new windows 8. i think the stock should be bought. >> a drop for gnc, down 3%. tim? >> not where melky cabrera, joe, is buying his supplements. no, no, no. major drop. secondary offering. a lot of stock being sold by the ceo which has a lot of people worried. deutsche bank a big downgrade despite the fact that the company has been reagisting. >> children's place, up 8%. karen? >> a good day for children's place. we like this stock but -- no audio. >> and a drop for walmart, down
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3%. mike co sneh. >> earnings not that bad, but it was priced for perfection. stock is up over 20% in 60 days. the guidance that they gave for the full year basically consensus up around $4.90 a share. after the stock had such a run, isn't [ cheers and applause ] i didn't like it tuesday and coming in a couple bucks isn't enough for me. wouldn't buy it. >> a couple of bucks for driving in norway. ever cruising the streets of norway, which tim is set to do, watch out for the wildlife. the accident happened wednesday night and while the bear may have suffered grizzly injuries the moose walked away unharm. >> no one likes a good pun more than you, mel. >> i heart them. when we come back, we'll check the charts and make a call on the markets and stay tuned to get $100 billion worth of
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investing advice. bill stone, chief investment strategist is revealing his best ideas after this. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.
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welcome back to "fast
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money." we're live at the nasdaq market site. today marked the strongest market rally in two weeks. the dow and s&p on pace for the sixth straight week of gains. so what are the charts telling us about the markets next move? jeff kilburg from killer kapital joins us. what do you think? >> we're really seeing the chart provides some strength. going back four months, four handles away on the s&p from testing that. the hfts, high frequency training want to go to that point. in the short term we'll see it. next chart here, very interesting. we saw draghi when he came out july 26, right here, as soon as he started talking the talk saying they will do whatever it takes, really saw this real and right now despite the fact that bears can argue, gdp is work and growth is slowing, right now the bulls are in charge. >> what do you think about the volumes though that have really been anemic at best to accompany
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this rally and a lot feel like the market hasn't been tested and do you have a view on the ten-year yield because that's where you trade and the ten-year, major, major resistance, and i almost feel like this is what we need to see it get through? >> your first point plays into my trading at the high frequency trades. they will get people to come into this market and if you look at the vix, i like to look at virks, weekly close under $15. four instances since '07. four instances where we've seen a sub $15 close in the vix, and with that subsequent two months after each one of those instances, the s&p 500 falls 6% so that does add on to the treasury trading. right now people are getting a little overexcited about the treasury exit. still at 185% in the ten-year. >> thanks for your time. >> melissa, take care. >> he's making a statement.
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>> killar kapital. are fundamentals telling the story, tech stocks outperforming, growth stocks hit its highest levels in a decade. time to get out of dividends and into growth stock? bill stone, chief involvement strategist at pnc asset management joins us to break it down. great to speak with you. started at the top of the show taking a will be at valuations in the s&p 500. defensive ones that have seemed to led the markets higher and where they are trading relative to the historical pes, and we found the top ones, utilities, health care, a sector you like, all trading at 20% plus above the historic pes. when it comes to health care specifically, because i know that's a sector you like, how can you wrap your head around to it trading to such a premium and still wanting to be in the sector? >> i think some of it is to look more towards what subsector maybe a pharma, that's not necessarily trading at some sort of premium to its long-term
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history, certainly not when you take a look at the dividends you can get off of it. it's a little bit different than i would argue it used to be in the past. certainly they have had a rough i guess go of it at times in the recent past with some of the valuations have been driven a little lower, so i do think it's worth thinking about that. i agree with you in general the more stable sectors are pretty expensive as people have kind of piled into those areas to try and escape the volatility coming from europe. >> i have a question for you in terms of the phrmas. if you take a look at the long-term pe, absolutely right, a lot lower than it used to be, but flat earnings this year to next year and also versus last year. a lot have made the earnings and have been much through cost-cutting and with the yields having come down to 3.5%, from 4 to 5 on these, aren't these new very is expensive given the growth rate? >> well, i think what you really have to look at is that we
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believe you're seeing i guess you'll call it a restocking of their pipelines, and as you look through some -- finally some fda approvals of some pretty, i don't know if i would call them quite yet blockbuster drugs, but big drugs and others on the way, i would also say they are kind of right in the teeth of a lot of patent expirations, and i'm going to say that's a good thing in the sense that pretty soon a lot will be in the rear view mirrors. you get yourself positions ahead of seeing actual earnings growth rate and lastly i think they have gotten religion around returning capital to shareholders. certainly in the past year is driven by cutting a lot of costs, but i do think you'll see top line growth as they get some more drugs on the market. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. what are your thoughts about the energy space which hasn't rebounded as much as some of the others? >> you know, it's -- it's a tough one. you know, probably slightly underweight that space, you know. it's one of those where it's
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probably as everybody is aware very difficult to know the next move in oil. we'd see long term the pressure is higher because our deep down when we look at our economic and macro forecasts we're probably one of the more optimistic ones in terms of looking for, you know, a little bit over 2% real gdp growth for the rest of the year, a little bit to say looking for and optimistic in the same sentence, but long term, there's pressure but in the long run there's interest there. >> hey, bill, it's joe. let me ask you. you've got a significant run in the ten-year. do you think this is the type of reallocation trade that some have referred to as being generational? we're in the midst of a massive reallocation that's going to unfold. >> i guess i'd like to say eventually, i don't know, like to say, but i believe eventually that will happen. is this the time? you know, honestly, i've got to tell you i don't think it is
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yet. i think when we look at it, though we expect europe to work out okay, we still expect more volatility there, and when you get volatility in europe, you're going to see treasury yields press back down again, so i don't think yields are going to get out of control on the ten-year. frankly i'd hope that they -- in the out of control, but i would hope that they kind of move up because i look at it like the patient's blood pressure. too low and the economy is dying. somewhere in the mid s&l a fair kind of number that frankly the economy is k still grow in but yet is also indicative of that kind of growth. >> bill stone, thanks for your time. bill stone of pnc asset management. good to speak to you as always. do you see it as the patient's blood pressure, the yield on the ten-year? >> i see it as the u.s. housing market is the most important component in terms of global growth right now. we real delook at buildings permit and say, forget china. if the u.s. housing market, copper is going higher and copper is more important to u.s. housing markets than china right now.
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anyway, what's the ten-year doing, a great question. if we're getting into that generational trade this is nothing of a move. i think this is people are way overweight and way too pessimistic in the third week of july and people are flatt flattening out their books. i don't think people are positioning stronger here. >> we ask you this question. would you invest your money with this man? >> not know where the money is. >> whoops. >> yeah. there are some notable people out there who still say they would. stick around to get that story right after this. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when the spx crossed above its 50 day moving average, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i saw the trend. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it looked really strong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i jumped right on it. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 since i've switched to charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...i've been finding opportunities like this tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 a lot more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like today, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i was using their streetsmart edge trading platform tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i saw a double bottom form. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so i called one of their trading specialists
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for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for? this is big news. would you invest in jon corzine? the ex-mf global head may be looking to start a new hedge fund and there's some who think if he does, he could make money. anthony scaramucci, friend to the show, joins us on the "fast" line. we know this because of a "new york times" article. do you know firsthand whether jon is in fact raising money for a hedge fund, and why would you
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invest with him, if he is? >> first of all, thanks for calling me a noted person, mel can a. >> you're notable, yes, you are. >> i'm obviously an unnoted person, but as it relays to jon, he is a terrific guy, and i think we have a culture now because of social media and the media in general where we lynch people first and then we ask questions later, and that sound bite that you guys just showed i think was actually accurate. he probably -- was definitely a screwup. we can hold him responsible at the top of the company and ceo, but i think the department of justice and others really do feel that nothing criminal happened there, and i think that's in line with jon's character. he's a stand-up guy. he's a gentleman, and he's actually a great trader. he got himself to the top of goldman sachs as a trader. maybe he's not the best ceo for a place like mf global, but i do think he would make a good hedge fund manager if he decides to do that, but i've learn from people close to jon he's nowhere near
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doing that at this moment. is trading some of his own personal money and maybe that's the third act or leg in his career. >> karen, it's anthony. anthony, it's karen. i -- i just wonder what could he possibly do that would make you say, you know what? maybe i shouldn't invest money with him? >> nice. >> listen, it's obvious that he's been tarred and feathered in the media. it's obvious that he had an operational snafu at mf global, and so chances are that there will be more people that won't be willing to invest with him, but karen, you and i both know as contrarians sometimes in the markets, you bet on the people that you know for a long period of time. i've known jon for over 20 years. i think he's an honorable guy and you can check with people who have worked with jon, whether it's in the senate, as governor, at goldman sachs and even the people at mf global, i think he's held in pretty high respect of people that he's worked with.
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i see all the negative stuff out there, and i can't see you because i'm on the phone, but my guess is you've bought some things in your career that had a lot of negatives associated with it that have actually worked out pretty well for you and your fund >> i see it as the contrarian. i just wonder one of the most important things is risk management. >> that's the only issue. not a question of jon's character. >> or intelligence. >> he's failed at mf global. >> and now we're getting into a nuances thing. his risk management was not ascertaining he would get downgraded by the credit agencies. if you look at the bond, even the trustees think that many of the bonds purchased would be good. a very big mistake, no question about it. >> anthony, we'll have to leave it there. a great conversation. now it's sparked a lot of controversy and different opinions on the deck. we asked you out there if you would invest with jon corzine. we've been tracking all the
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tweets? >> jon corzine right now is trending. it's a very hot debate. would you invest with jon corzine? let me get you a couple of the responses. wes is treating heck no. i can lose, misplace my own money without his ex goldman sachs hands on it. darren tweeting, yeah, why not? it appears he knows how to get away with breaking the law. should be a future top performer. lastly, my favorite one. ed says if he lost, then he has learned humility, and he is probably better for it than someone who has never lost. turning over a new leaf perhaps. melissa. >> that seems like the worst reason to invest with anybody, because they have lost in the past. seema, thanks for that. from fake laptops that can start a fire to household toiletrs that could poison. could you be in danger? cnbc's carl quintanilla says there's no shame what a counterfeiter will knock off and that's condoms. >> at the national international
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property rights coordination center the director says we should never be surprised by what's being counterfeited and safety concerns don't just come with electronics. >> do i even want to know what's in this toothpaste? >> they used a sweetener in there that's also a product of anti-freeze. >> anti-freeze. >> anti-freeze, not something that you want to brush your teeth with. >> no. you can't not pick this up. why would you counterfeit condoms? >> again, i think you counterfeit anything that has had a name brand that you can make profit on. >> and there's no doubt it is a profitable industry. the international chamber of commerce puts it in the hundreds of billions of dollars. tune in to "crime inc." >> there's products out there you need to have confidence in. >> i can think of one in particular. >> up next, time to reveal our trade of the day and one that makes all the right connections in just a few minutes. we'll lift the curtain and unveil the stock that one of our
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it's that time. time to reveal what's behind the red velvety curtain. joe, trade of the day? >> check point software which i purchased today. we talked the other day about digital wallets. well, what are you going to need? you'll need security. they provide the security software. additionally 40% of their revenues are tied to europe. things are getting better in europe, things will get better for those revenues as well. >> all right. we've got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason
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awesome!!! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet? time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. mike co sneh. >> use put spreads to make bearish bets. >>tic think? >> brazil's best airline manufacturer, erj. >> steve? >> qualcomm, they are picking up market share everywhere. i would buy this one and hold on to it. a great way. >> karen? >> mentioned before, good numbers, but still time to say good-bye. valuations getting a little too rich. children's place. time to sell. >> joe? >> mentioned at the top of the show the affection for technology. i mentioned checkpoint software. what i did not mentionsy truly believe this is a target for m & a. >> i'm melissa lee. th

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