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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 6, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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just let it be. the dow up 244 points today. multiyear highs for that. the nasdaq at 12-year highs with that gain of 66 points today. >> thanks so much for watching us. that does it for "the closing bell." >> maria is with us from italy tomorrow. in the meantime, "fast money" starts right now. see you tomorrow. this is "fast money." let's get straight to the day's monster rally. the s&p 500 closing at its highest level since january 2008. the nasdaq composite at its highest level since november 2000. materials, financials, technology all leading the market higher. so the question here is, how are you trading it, particularly going into tomorrow's big jobs report? josh brown. >> yeah, i think we really didn't make a lot of moves today. we did a little bit of trimming. the only new long we add was in the health care sector, and area we see an even bigger breakout than the nasdaq. talking about a high back to 20 00. look at the xlv. that's a new all-time high ever. that's the baby boomer basket you want to be in for a long period of time.
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we like the action. the only negative that i didn't love seeing was that really harsh reversal in oil. that was definitely notable. you got a strong open, then they ripped it back. i think that's something you want to keep an eye on. the jobs number tomorrow could negate everything. >> you like that action. part of the action was decent volume. not just here in the united states but also over in europe where we did see more than 2% gains across the board. dr. jay, what did you see in terms of the options market? >> there certainly was that. there were people trying to add alpha chasing the market here because they're behind the curve. clearly a lot of turnover in the leverage dtfs. i was looking at, for instance, the faz or the sso. i mean, all of these, whether it's a double, triple bear, double, triple bull, whichever it is, options on those before trading about seven times normal volumes today. most after this is people chasing either people that are mind and short, trying to catch up, or people that are basically
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flat and looking to get into the market. that's the main reason that they would trade either of those. i'd remind them to be careful about what warren buffett says. you combine ignorance with leverage, you get some pretty interesting results. that's exactly what we got today. >> right. we did see a broad-based rally. take a look at this list of s&p 500 gainers. pretty much from every sector. in the last hour, each s&p 500 sector, all ten of them, posted more than 1% gains. nice gains across the board. karen, there's also this notion out there that there's a pain trade going on going into the end of the year, that money managers and hedge fund managers are underperforming. they have to be in this market because they have to catch up. >> i think that's true. although, you know what happens when you see all of that hedge fund money go in. invariably see a little bit of a downturn. i don't know what to make of the whole thing. i think are fundamentally things that much different than they were two or three days ago? i find it a little hard to believe.
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unless this european thing is over. >> right. >> i'm a little bit skeptical. so we didn't really do a whole lot different today. it felt kind of frothy, so we took a little money off the table with selling. upside calls, maintain some of that position but take a little money off the table. >> are we in a win-win scenario for tomorrow's session in that the jobs report comes in better and things are great? the jobs report comes in lower than expected, and we know ben bernanke is willing to step in. >> what we've been going on is bad news is good. the dollar could catch a bit and all these reflation trades go the other way. what's really changed in the last 48 hours? if you told me what draghi would actually do, i thought he would cut rates, be explicit with what happened. if you told me that, i would be more shortcoming into the day than i was. we came into the day flat. we came out short. if i look at all the procyclical stocks, staples, c.a.t. tractor,
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anything where growth is fundamentally growing. only a day before fedex reminded you of that. these are the places you want to be making sales. you want to sell losers and ride your winners. we stayed with things like nike and las vegas. >> one thing that did change is you saw spanish and italian bond yields come in with these comments from draghi. the market is saying, that's enough for now. if we're not going to have a catastrophe in september, which was the big concern, we go back to saying, we know growth is slow. we understand all these things. however, there are secular areas like tech, like health care that are going to lead us higher. combine that with the fact the banks are a no-go zone. all these pieces come together. put up 14 1/2, 5 multiple. this is where the market belongs, in the absence of a monst monster euro crisis. >> mike, what do you make of this rally? do you agree there are places like energy, like health care where you can invested at this
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point? >> i think obviously if you believe in a rally, energy would be a good place to be. i do think there are names that people we've mentioned that they should be thinking about rotating out of it. josh mentioned if you don't believe in a european corncern, then markets should be trading at 14 1/2 times. >> because they're bond proxies, mike. >> those are place i'd rather see people selling. still, index protection remains cheap, and if you're inclined to press longs, you ought to own it. >> you chimed in there. mike was saying they're perceived to be bond prophesies because of their yields. he would like people to sell. >> there's two dynamics. there are two things happening that are very bizarre to anyone who's been around the business a long time. undeniable, nonetheless. you're seeing people that aren't
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comfortable upping the stock exposure, but they'll buy junk bonds. >> highly correlated. >> they're saying, well, i'm still doing fixed income. that's one side. the other side is they're buying the staples that mike mentioned, which are not cheap, but they're getting 3.5 and 4% yields. make no mistake. these multinational defensive companies are being used as chicken bonds. this is what happens when the fed drops rates and artificially does this kind of thing. we get all kinds of weird phenomena. the only thing you can do about it is understand what's happening. >> and you got to manage this trade. keith, what are you doing in terms of when you see days like this, how do you trade this risk of the range? >> in particular when you get surprise. the reaction is what certainly surprised me today. range we've been trading in is basically 1395 to 1419. it will be interesting to hear what someone like doug cass has to say about a close above 1419. 1419 was the prior year to date closing high on april the 2nd. what you're making now is a higher high.
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short sellers like me are playing defense. that thing needs to confirm. if it doesn't confirm, you're going back to the bottom end of the range and trading 1431. that's 30 points. you got to manage the risk of the range. that's what we do. we don't want to be buying high and selling low. we want to be selling green and buying red. that's really what we're talking about when we talk about the range. >> i was on with leon cooperman at halftime today. he was saying similar things to what you've just said, keith, and what you said as well k. fine. that's that he's willing to sell at the moneys. he says, i'm lightening up. i think we're at a fair value for the market here. that changes, of course, based on a number of things. fiscal cliff, if we can't negotiate our way out of that, or something blowing up overseas that we don't really see happening now. i guess september 12th could be that. again, i don't really expect that. the banks, they were the big
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outperformers today. 5% out of bank of america. 4% out of jpmorgan. goldman sachs on a several day run of maybe $8. i mean, it was on double volume at goldman sachs and so forth. there are clearly a lot of people trying to catch up right now. >> let's go to gary. gary, good to see you. i know you're a believer in this rally. i want to suppose the point that our traders were making earlier. that is, what has changed effectively in the last 48 hours for us to rally at multiyear highs on the s&p as well as the nasdaq? >> well, i'd agree with them that nothing much has changed in that, you know, the u.s. economy is in a recovery, frankly. what's changed is the market today is finally recognizing that. i think what's helped the market
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recognize that is the uncertainty of europe has diminished somewhat, andt's really these uncertainties of europe, the election, maybe the fiscal cliff, that have kept the market in check. you know, today i think people are finally focusing in on the idea that things aren't quite as bad as politicians and the media may be touting. >> hey, it's keith. i think if you take the politicians and media out and just ask someone who does the math, the reality is the growth has slowed from the fourth quarter to 1.7% now. oil is rising as opposed to falling. how do you say the u.s. economy is improving when gdp growth has fallen 60% sequentially in 60 months? >> i think i'm taking a longer point -- or longer term view of where we're at versus where we were coming out of the recession and the financial crisis. so, yeah, we did tick up to 4%.
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now we're settling back in. but for me, the trend is upwards. it's on -- it might be slower than everybody would like to see. it might be without as many jobs as everybody wants to see. but i think this trend for the economy is still intact on an upward trend. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. we're a global world now more than we've ever been. with the gdp of the european union, they were guiding down a little lower today. and with uncertainty about china and india growth, doesn't that have to factor in somewhat of your evaluation of u.s. stocks? >> absolutely. those are very, very important reasons for why our u.s. equity markets aren't much higher than where they are now. frankly, look -- again, the u.s. equity markets, if you look at them in a relative viewpoint of where you have to put your money, where you want to put
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risk on, they're far, far more attractive than any other markets in the world. look at the emerging markets. they're in a much -- you know, they're still in the down trend and searching for this soft landing, perhaps. you're going to have to be extremely speculative if you want to go into the european markets and try to, you know, play that market. >> right. >> where else are you going put risk on in this world? and in relation to, you know, just historical evaluation multiples on the s&p and historical dividend yields versus treasury rates, it's -- you know, it's very reasonable evaluations. it's a relative play. >> we're going to leave it there. thanks for your time. we appreciate it. so the bottom line on this is gary is saying relatively the u.s. is the best place to be. by the way, he loves technology picks. we have a screen of his
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individual picks. what do you say? >> i say, you have to get the facts straight. growth, at the end of the day, is what it is. you have to get growth right from here. it's not a trivial matter, by the way. economists having a real tough time with that. central planners having an even tougher time. from here, where does growth go? and is it within inflation? the 1970s and equities were basically seven times earnings for stocks. if you say buy stocks at 14 times earnings and you have the e wrong and the growth wrong, that could be a problem. i think this is going to be an ongoing debate. does central planning give you the elixir that is growth, or does it give you inflation, which is not growth? >> right. all right. let's talk amazon here. amazon unveiling a handful of new products. are any of them a game changer? amazon shares up nicely today. coming up next, top analysts breaking down what the new devices mean. and later on, what triple topped after today's big rally?
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have you seen shares of goldman sachs? extending a more than 3% gain. brian's here with the details. brian. >> i'm here. i'm here. the financials were the second best sector of all s&p sectors. goldman pushed through the 113 level. it's up now more than 25% for the year. you compare that to morgan stanley. some of the names did a little better today, but key levels broken through for goldman sachs. >> tremendous run. thanks, brian, for that. we've seen unusual activity across the board in the financials in today's session. bank of america is what caught your eye.
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>> bank of america, huge call spread. 100,000 options worth. somebody wants to own bank america. they sold the upside calls at ten. like i said, 100,000 times. that's enough to catch your eye, karen. then you look at goldman, which for the last three days has traded five times normal option activity. clearly people are trying to lever into these financials, and if europe, indeed, is saved by what mario draghi is doing, then these guys are certainly betting there's a big push to the upside for financials. >> morgan stanley was up. mike, you noticed a big trade. what did it tell you? >> morgan stanley among the financials seeing a lot of call activity over the course of the last couple days. what's interesting here is it looks like there was some sellers, actually, of the september 17 calls. part of that might be people overriding, as karen was talking about earlier, on winning long positions, betting that the stock will not go above 17 or much beyond that by september
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expiration, which isn't far away. you know, i will point out that the volume we were seeing in financials generally was pretty extraordinary. we've had very light options volume for quite some time today, over 18 million contracts. that's a big, big pickup over what was a very slow august. >> all right. so the bottom liar here in terms of the action is that a lot of investors are positioning for more upside in some of the financials, karen. is that what you see? >> i've had bank america for forever. they were nation's bank, probably, 30 years ago. it hasn't worked yet, but one day it will be. maybe that was today. we've had jpmorgan for quite some time as well. as we see a continuation of the housing rebound, that can't be bad for bank of america. the valuation here is still compelling despite this run-up they've had. we did some nine, ten, one by twos. you can do it for very, very little money where you get called away from your stock at 11, which i think is an
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interesting trade to do. if you're long stock done a one by two, gives you more upside in the nine to 11 range. i still like it here. that doesn't seem frothy. seemed like it was way overdone to the downside before here. jpmorgan as well, just recovering, not even fully, from the london incident. >> all right. you can catch more options action friday, 5:00. follow the show on its new facebook page as well. all right. amazon takes aim at apple with a wave of new products, including a new kindle. you had a lot to say about the gadgets in today's facebook poll. 23% of you plan to buy a new amazon tablet or e-reader. 44% are sticking to your ipads. 33% are waiting to hear about the ipad mini. so despite our poll, are amazon's new gadgets a game changer? jean, did you think that
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anything was ground breaking, earth shattering, or was it just evolutionary? >> this is what amazon needs to do just to keep running in place against, as your poll had shown. obviously apple is going to be coming out with a new device. as expected today, but critical that they do do this. they've got to do it because this market is just going to get brutally competitive for this holiday. >> do you know how much they lose per device? >> we estimate it's about $15. if they sell two books on that device, they basically break even. the way amazon thinks about this is about a third of their revenue is content. if they can get these devices in their customer's hands, they can sell them a few books, they're making money. >> i love amazon as a customer of theirs. what is really driving their business now? what's driving their ability to keep that very, very high multiple? is it the cloud? it can't be the kindle. >> it's not the kindle. that's probably a good point to hit, as most investors don't own
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amazon for the kindle. it's all about that experience. what's driving it is this whole number we keep talking about. 7% of what's bought is in the u.s. is bought online. eventually that number is going to be 20 or 30%. around the world the numbers tend to be lower than that. the reason why the stock has such a high multiple is portfolio managers can sleep well at night knowing that secular theme is in place. one quick specific item is we just did an analysis on amazon prime. a typical amazon prime users spends six times as much as a non-amazon user. to answer your question, what's going to keep driving this? just the adoption of prime. >> gene, it's josh brown. amazon spent years and years and years fighting legislation about paying taxes. it was such a huge deal to them. all the sudden they seem to have shrank away from that. what do you make of that? what impact might that have in the next year, two years, rather
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than try to figure out what the next ten points are? as an investment, should we think about that at all? >> it's definitely something to think about. it's probably going to impact the stock in the next year at some level. a lot of these tax benefits these holidays will start to roll off. about half of amazon's revenue is currently from customers that don't pay sales tax. figure in the next few years that's going to go away. that doesn't make amazon as attractive as an option. what we have seen is in markets and state where is amazon has been collecting sales tax, those growth rates, after the first year they decline, then they tend to be more or less in line with the states that don't collect sales tax. in other words, it's kind of a one-year head wind. >> it's the amazon fiscal cliff. it comes and goes and things get back to normal. >> yeah. >> okay. >> gene, quick question about amazon breaking to this record high now on very decent volume too. october of last year, i guess, was the last time it was
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246.70-something it blowing through 250 to the upside here today. they keep coming out with products like you just mentioned. the kindle, they redo something to try to hold on to some market share, but there wasn't the phone. there wasn't the streaming tv that were both rumored to be out there. do you think either of those are really going to be delivered by amazon or are those just rumored products? >> the phone probably comes at certain point. maybe the tv. who knows. at the end of the day, i think all these things are exciting because they're consumer products, but it doesn't change what the most important part for amazon is, which is basically their broad e-commerce business. what's going to push this stock higher is the margins will go from 3% to 10%. that's the reason why people should be focused on it. >> all right. just give us the bottom line in terms of where you see the stock going in the next 12 months. >> next 12 months i think it's going higher because e-commerce and margins are going higher. >> all right, gene. good to see you. one stock falling more than 10% today, our own karen finerman
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called the slide weeks ago. stick around to see how she's managing that winni inning trad. much more "fast" straight ahead. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. the economy needs manufacturing. machines, tools, people making stuff. companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure, construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars
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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site in new york's times square. shares of verifone rose today. ceo doug bergeron sounded pretty optimistic this morning on "squawk on the street." take a listen. >> i think we're in a great place. in a lot of ways we have the beach-front property for the mobile payment's deployment. i have nothing to apologize for. the company is doing fantastic. >> now, the context, of course, is a 13% decline today. prior to that, there's a 24% decline over the past six months. karen made a call to short verifone back on august 31st. it's down nearly 8% since then. give us a trade update. >> well, there's nothing to be ashamed of. i think the company die it namic
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-- dynamic is changing. their earnings quality, which, you know, partially in their guidance was a 4% reduction in the tax rate. you don't love to see that. their free cash flow generation is very different than net income. you don't love to see that as well. and they sort of refuse to say that what's changing will affect them. they say there's only us and a genaco. that's their only competitor. he wouldn't even say square on the conference call. but he did -- i know if your interview, he did use the word square, appropriately. i think that he needs to recognize to the street that he can't be so dismissive of all the others. one last thing. they talk about wanting to change hardware, software. if there's no pressure on the hardware pricing, if average selling prices are not under pressure, why the urgency to switch the mix? that i don't really get. so for a lot of reasons, this
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trades down on credibility issues, i think, but the valuation doesn't seem wildly off here. you just don't know exactly what the earnings are going to be. >> technically speaking, i'll just pipe in. i've been following this from afar because i own communications stuff and interested in this sector. technically speaking, there are no buyers if this thing breaks 30. that's been a pretty critical level of support throughout this tu multi. if she breaks below, i can't see people stepping in. this could be 25 very quickly. >> some of the best conversations we have on the show happen during the commercial break. during the interview, he specifically cited some of the record metrics that his company is posting. yet, the stock is down so sharply. so it just seemed a little bit tone deaf to not even acknowledge there is a disconnect between what the stock is telling the markets and what he is saying is the story of the company. >> it's just weird. at the end of the day when you
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get somebody, who like melissa says, tone deaf. first of all, there's macro going on. staples talked about that, fedex. this guy could be a little clueless. to josh's point, you break lower lows, you could go to 20. that's the prior reference point. again, this guy has to be really careful with what he says and when he says. >> we also said better to keep your mouth shut and be thought an idiot than to open it and remove all doubt, which is why mark zuckerberg has been zip, quiet until next tuesday. >> no love from this panel. time now for pops and drops and movers you might have missed in today's session. we kick it off with a drop. mike. >> an example of how cheap stocks get cheaper. you combine declining revenues associated with falling sales for their osteoporosis. then throw a whole lot of stock. yesterday they announced the three largest holders plan to sell 42 million shares.
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there's going to be a lot of stock for sale here. you don't need to rush out and buy this one for sure. >> pop for chevron, up 2%. josh. >> chevron took out this $110 level that was a pretty stiff resistance. we tested it over the last couple days. this morning she took right back off from that level. chevron is half the size of exon. the same fundamentals and a huge dividend. nothing not to like. >> pop for nike, up 2%. keith. >> looks good. this is one of the stocks where you actually have some bad news that could roll into good news. these are the kinds of stocks that you want to own. the ones that people could say, hey, look, there's still upside. there's upside in the numbers. the fundamentals could improve. we like it higher. >> megapop for navstar. >> you think carl is back to break even yet? i don't think so. carl icon and raskky added to their stakes, and they're going to explore their noncore businesses, which i'm sure they're being encouraged to do by both of those two big
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activist investors. it brings the stock back to the low 20s. it's got to get significantly higher or both these guys are going to remain under water. >> drop for wag, down 2%. >> yeah, walgreens still feeling the fallout from their express scrips disagreement. by tri care said they won't have walgreens in network. that's not so good for walgreens. very good for cvs. >> and a pop here for the hula hoop. more than 1,000 people participated in thailand's first ever national hula hoop competition. they held the event in an effort to prevent fitness. turns out it's very good exercise. who knew? contestants had to keep their hoops constantly swinging for more than 30 minutes. notice guy is not here today. that's all i'll say. pop for sears, up 9%. >> was up 9%.
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i think their losses weren't as wide as feared. this one is just too hard to play. >> pop for lulu lemon. >> lulu is on fire once again. up 30% since the first day of august. i would not be a buyer here. look at where the rally stalled. right at the gap from the last time they missed earnings. earnings are tomorrow. you had a nice rally. i think there's nothing wrong with walking away prior to that call. if you're long term, maybe you use any dip as a buying opportunity. >> pop for fedex up 2%. keith. >> straight down yesterday. right back up today. it's like playing jack in the box. this thing is what it is. it's been breaking down as growth has been slowing. the stock's come down from 93. until the fundamentals change. >> a drop for seagate. >> seagate hit a new 52-week high a little over a week ago. it's been coming down since then. got almost all the way down to the target, which is 30.
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made a dollar pop from there today. hope i get a chance it reload. >> a pop for first solar. up 7%. mike. >> this stock is the deaf fission for volatility. it's been back and forth for the last couple weeks. today they announced they got a 25 megawatt deal that's going to be used to build a plant. that's not really that material. 369 megawatts is one-quarter delivery of solar modules. i don't think it's enough to move the needle. >> here's a bizarre pop. a pop for putin. it's a bird, it's a plane, no, it's russian president vladimir putin dressed as a bird and flying. he took to the skies in a hang glider. this is the latest in a series of wild exploits, include fixing a tracker to a polar bear and shooting a tying we are a tranquilizer. >> strong like bull. >> exactly. >> can we elect him? is he in the race?
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>> afraid not. all right. gold is up $1700, but there could be a better play in the metals space. we have that trade next. plus, doug kass is back. find out whether he's changed his bearish tune when "fast money" comes back. at merrill lynch, we understand the importance of your goals. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch.
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the bulls are out in full force today, but doug kass called it back in mid-august here on "fast money." >> i suspect that the market could move back to the, i would say the 1300, 1330 area. i think we're in the process of making the high for the year now. >> all right. the s&p 500 up nearly 2% since that call. so is he staying bearish? back for more on the fast shrine doug kass, president of sea breeze partners. sticking to your guns? >> sure am, mel. good evening. i remain cautiously pessimistic. i'm not short, but i'm not over any ski short. i'm bruised but bowed today. i would say i'm unyielding in my concerns. >> unyielding. i'm curious what you have to say, keith, to that. you are very adamant about trading the market that you
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have, trading the ranges and making sure you keep that in mind. so would you stick to that too? >> i think you look at today, doug, and you have to ask yourself, i mean, story telling is all over the place. if you look at today, it's down three weeks and then up for four hours. how do you deal with that mentally? >> it's tough. my biggest concern, keith, is that investors besides not having memory from day to day, as you just described, are not being entirely traditional in their investing. by that i mean, they're looking less at the real economy. instead, they're depending and they're guided by their reliance on effective policy in this global ease input. to me, the risks are high of policy disappointment and/or missteps in policy implementati implementation. i think the eurozone experiment
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is going to fail. i think they've, you know -- we should really use the u.s. as a template. we had unprecedented easing since 2008. now 3 1/2 years after the great recession ended, and our domestic economy is only growing in real terms at about 1.8%. in europe, it's a much more dire state, as measured by inflation, check growth, and unemployment growth. italy's unemployment is 9%. spain's is 6%. it won't be able to grow out of this debt without hugely heavy lifting, austerity, and unpopular policies. >> i think there's two points on that. is it more like q-3 of 2007 or q-3 of 2008 if you're making the analogy that europe is about to become the u.s.? >> yeah, i think we're closer to 2007. i saw your tweet on that same
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subject. i would say that the concerns are growing over, let's say, to me, over the next three or six months. i'll just make bullet points. the first thing is if you look at in trade, obama is now up to 5 59%. that's higher than when the ryan apointment was made. everyone views a democratic win in business as market unfriendly. i suspect it's going to be a cliff hanger with obama winning. the closer to the election it gets, it seems to be the more animosity will be created between the parties and the steep fiscal cliff. if we look at 2007, we're starting to see like them, especially in china, this broad deceleration in global manufacturing activity. >> so doug, give us how you've changed, if at all, your portfolio since you made that call here on "fast." the markets are up 2%. what have you done to your portfolio to reflect that? >> i have slightly increased my short positions.
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i'm respectful of the price action. i have added some one off longs like avon products, which i'm hopeful is still the apple of cody's eye in terms of a takeover. i'm a couple percent shorter than when we last discussed. >> okay. so really sticking to it. doug, good to talk to you as always. karen, i'm wondering if you would be on that trade as well. >> i don't own avon. i think cody's gone. >> oh, so it's gone. >> if goes up, it's based on its own fundamentals. >> i think so. >> and there's a lot of folks that have just been losing their shirts being short not just the market but if you're betting on, for instance, vicks going up because obviously if the market melts down, you'd expect the vxk to go to the upside. people have been slaughtered being along the vix. it was down, what, 12% today. breaking down to 1550 or so. >> all right. we've been tracking gold as
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well. breaking above the $1700 level today. should you buy the gold run? we will trade it right after this. we're sitting on a bunch of shale gas.
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money." smith and wesson was halted just after 4:00 p.m. eastern time. half an hour later started trading again and rocked to the upside. their fiscal first quarter earnings were amazing. take a look at these numbers. 28 cents versus expectations of 18. they beat on revenue. margins on the growth side, 37.7. expectations for less than 29. guidance above consensus. across the board they didn't miss. the last metric, their firearm backlog, year over year, up 163%. they talked about a lot of firearms sales spiking post aurora. i don't know if that factors in on the calendar. obviously a very strong quarter. >> yeah, brian. thanks for that. smith and wesson sitting on a fresh 52-week high. we have to give some props to guy who sat here last night and named smith and wesson as his picks. >> phenomenal pick, guy. hope you're out celebrating some
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place. if this election is as contentious as doug alleges it will be, that's part of the reason why the stock is seeing that pop. >> next trade here, gold breaking above $1700 an ounce. it's up almost the -- 9% in 2010. jeff, do you like gold here? >> i do, melissa. i think it has more room to run here. let's look overseas. in euro terms, the all-time high of 1381. if you bring that back domestically, that means 1754. seems like they really want to test that level. if you go all the way overseas to new delhi, india, you saw the rupee cross 32,000 for the price of gold today. that's an all-time high. right now we're seeing this, but no doubt about it, we didn't see the adp number this morning temper the gold. we are above 1700. >> when you look at trading the risk of the range of gold, does obama factor into that tonight?
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the core debaucherer. >> certainly he knows the payroll number. i'd like to know that. i don't think the short-term factor of the unemployment number is going to move gold that much, but you're right. there is volatility. i'm looking all the way down to 1642. kei keith, if you look when they talked about more measures coming our way, we initially -- that was a convoluted message. we came down to 1647. then we bounced right back up. here we are testing 1717 today. so there's a lot of emphasis, but i'm looking more towards the fomc meeting, to be honest. >> hey, it's josh. at what point does the silver train start rolling out of the station with gold looking like it wants to remain at these levels and challenge the highs at some point this year? are we going to see that, or are things different and they don't want silver because it's too pro
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growth? >> no, josh. i think some folks want to play that higher beta trade in silver. once they got above that average a week and a half ago t has pulled out of the station. it's off to the races. there's more room to run in silver, but it's not for the feint of heart. i think $37 is a nice target in the silver market. if you look at the gld versus the slv over the last month, clearly slv has been the rocket ship. >> all right, jeff. thanks a lot for that. the bottom line here, gold still works but silver could work better for those who have strong stomachs. draghi, meantime, the euphoria took over the market today. there's one strategist who isn't so impressed. find out what red flags she's already seeing in draghi's new plan and how you should be trading the latest developments coming out of europe. [ male announcer ] how do you trade?
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the euro rising against the dollar today as ec b's president mario draghi announced a new bond buying plan to help ease the european debt crisis. rebecca patterson joins us with a look at how to trade it. good to see you. >> hi. >> i'm curious if you can make heads or tails of the market reaction today since basically almost every detail of the plan
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was telegraphed to the market yesterday. >> i think people were relieved that they actually got the ecb doing something. i think the whole bottom line for europe right now is enjoy it while it lasts. the ecb is taking steps, they're positive steps. but you look at the concessions made to germany and some of the core countries there. no rate cut today. conditionality, which will be difficult for some of the peripheral countries to agreed to, especially spain. the fact they could cut off of the bond buying if the countries can't stick to their fiscal targets. it's good for now, and let's enjoy it and trade it. just, i'd be careful because i don't know how long the good times are going to last on europe. >> right. and the corollary to that is you think trading the euro/u.s. dollar is tricky. you see resistance at 127. you're looking instead at what trade, what pair? >> that's right. europe hopes have been driving markets lately. i think today that changed a little bit with some of the better than expected u.s. numbers we got. the risk rally was more widespread. so australian dollar did well
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today. mexican peso did well today. i'm going to focus ones aussie dollar. it's been unloved late by because of china fears. we have some chinese data this weekend. we want to keep an eye on that. assuming risk stays on, i want to go long on the australian dollar, short on the yen. the currency that is going to underperform, if risk can stay on a bit longer. i'd get in roughly around current levels. look for a move up to the top of the range, technically around 83.60. have a stop down around 0i. aussie is under a lot of pressure with china. because you have a good entry level here and because the chinese data this weekend is going to show us they are stabilizing and maybe giving us some stimulus, i think this one technically short-term based can enjoy the broader, not just europe-only risk rally. >> rebecca, when you take a step back and think maybe this is really redik louse, if i was going to the doctor and said, look, i need conditionality and i need sterilization. how is my forward growth outlook
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going to look in life, particularly if i'm mature? do you think growth is going to come back or it's going to continue to surprise on the downside? >> no, europe -- look, the ecb revised down its economic forecast today for this year and next year. i think they're still too optimistic. european growth is slowing, including now in germany, which is troubling, given that's sort of the anchor economy. so i think this is going to continue to be an uphill battle. the europeans will continue to do it stuff. they want to hold emu together, but they're going to continue to do something they can all agree on. that means it's the lowest common denominator. we will have sterilization. we will have conditionality. that's going to limit the success of their efforts. >> all right, rebecca. good to see you. see you tomorrow. tomorrow being money in motion currency trading. that's at 5:00 p.m. eastern time here on cnbc. you said when i go to the doctor and ask for conditionality and sterilization, asking for sterilization it not usually something that's discussible.
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did not sound good. that's for sure. >> i'm a young man. my wife's watching. this is not good if i was european. >> and conditionality you'd want some sort of sedative, right? that would be one of the conditions. >> we have your first look tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned. flash tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade at charles schwab for $8.95 a trade.
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time for the final trade. mike. >> consider collars to protect your gains in tj maxx. >> stocks with bad fundamentals. staples goes back to where it was three weeks ago. >> josh. >> a really big breakout in rack space on a weekly chart. >> karen. >> i think with today's yur forya, you got to sell a little upside. i'll be selling some walmart. >> doc. >> plains exploration, pxp. i think you could also look at perhaps picking up some puts early tomorrow just to protect into the weekend. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching.


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