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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  September 7, 2012 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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more than a few years for us to solve challenges that have built up over decades. it will take common effort and shared responsibility and the kind of bold, persistent expir mentation president roosevelt franklin pursued in the crisis worse than this one. >> friday, september 7, 2012 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ stand in the place where you live ♪ ♪ think about direction wonder why you have it ♪ >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the top story is jobs in america. stakes have never been higher for wall street or washington so we'll cover every aspect of it this morning. we include kraft president and new england patriots president jonathan kraft. he'll bring us a unique economic indicator that involves food, manufacturering and football. plus, three names you've come to know and trust on jobs friday,
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mark zandi diane swonk and austan goolsbee. let's get you up to speed on today's market agenda and we turn over to andrew. >> a dow jones news wire survey says the economy will likely add 125,000 jobs last month. that is going to be the baseline, whether we go over or under. the employment rate is seen holding steady at 8.3%. average hourly earnings forecast to rise by 0.2%. meantime, job posting site monster reports monthly gauge of online labor demand rose from july to august, leading the way, agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting. the jobs with fewer postings, public administration and educational services.
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so, that's where we'll be. what's your number? >> i'm surprised you said that, andrew, 125,000 after yesterday's adp report. >> i thought it might actually rise. >> it should have. >> you would think some economists wouldn't bring that number up. >> i should say there are other studies out there showing now some people are talking about 140,000, 150,000. >> that's what i think. >> we'll see where it lands. >> anything above 125,000. i think people are at 140,000, 150,000 to be satisfied after the adp report. >> some of our economists, i think zandi is looking for 140,000, 145,000. but a much higher number. >> we have to realize, as we said yesterday, it could be -- depends on which adp it was, goofus or gallant. >> last month it was dead on. the month before, june, it was off 100,000. >> when you went to the doctor as a kid, did you see those highlight magazines? >> yes. >> i think of you as gallant. you're diligent, on time, do
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everything you need to do, all these jobs, always busy, very responsible. >> are you -- >> i'm goofus. most viewers would agree with that. i don't -- i don't want to be gallant. becky is one -- we have to think about -- >> she's gallant. >> there's no women in goofus and gallant. except the mother. the mother was really nice, and so was the father. very good parents. goofus did not respond to parenting very well. glencore is raising $34 billion bid for xstrata, offering a little over $3 for every xstrata share up from the proposed $2.08 a share. developments overnight hinting at an improved deal. the deal has been on the brink of collapse. more from kelly evans in a couple of minutes. and intel is going to taut -- taught taut -- that's a negative connotation. >> using it as a verb or -- >> using it as a verb.
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i'm just using it as what the teleprompter is using it at. bought i think taut, it will come assume less power is what it's touting. the tech giant hopes to help a stagnant economy. three publishers conspireing with apple and others to push up price of electronics books and a judge says there's no excuse for price fixing. scolding them. no excuse for this. the doj had accused companies of illegally colluding on prices as part of an effort to fight amazon's dominance in ebook space while others settled, apple and publishers mcmillon and penguin are fighting that governmental lawsuit. are you monitoring twitter today? >> i'm tweeting joe kernen's hair right now. >> what are you saying? >> nothing yet. >> i'm tweeting him right now. >> this happens to him and nothing -- >> you must have cut him into silence. shocked slns. >> look at -- i mean, i got
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home -- i literally just asked him what he thinks of his cut. >> i got home and my wife asked me -- she goes, oh, my god, you got a boy's regular. >> oh, penelope is good. >> closer to a bowl cut. >> well, you went for the -- i don't know what that -- the rich guy trim. you didn't need a haircut but you said, you know what, would you just -- because you don't want anyone to ever know -- >> when you get it cut. >> exactly. and i never leave -- ann, is this ready yet? i never -- >> oh, my goodness. >> i never leave at 9:02, so i never see you leave. i just happened to -- i mean, i thought it was a joke. i just happened to walk out yesterday a little bit early and you were leaving the building. there's the satellites for our transmission. >> i watched this play out from
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the windows upstairs. i saw you both out there. >> i was shocked. was the helicopter in the shot? >> do you see the yugo in the left hand corner? that's mine. you just caught me standing there. >> that's unbelievable. . is that in your contract? >> in the left hand corner there's a little corner -- >> the car is the one behind it because i watched you get into it. >> don't ruin it. >> that is true. >> i was standing in the macking lot -- >> i watched the whole thing play out. >> you looked at me like -- but the sad thing is -- >> he immediately e-mailed it to me. >> he had his blackberry up going -- >> you saw me do it and you still didn't know what the hell i was doing. you still had to put -- you didn't know it was going to be 6:06 and that was going to be shown? >> maybe you would do it like 8:58. that's what i was thinking. but thank you for that. >> well done. and i did watch that whole thing play out. let's get back to our top political story of the morning. john harwood is here from
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charlotte where the dnc has officially wrapped up. . two weeks back to back. republicans first, now democrats. had you the clean-up hitter last night with the president himself. what did people in the hall think about the speech? >> reporter: people in the hall loved the speech but we have to watch the polls and see how well it played with independent voters, undecided voters who not very many of them in the country but there are some. and what you had was prosecute president obama casting a much more somber tone than four years. that fits the fact he has an unemployment rate over 8%, a very slow economy. you talked about the jobs number coming this morning. he was trying to come to terms with the disappointment many people have felt in the results of the first four years. he said, i've always told you it's not going to be easy. here's the president. >> i won't pretend the path i'm offering is quick or easy. i never have.
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you didn't elect me to tell you what you wanted to hear. you elected me to tell you the truth. and the truth is it will take require, effort, and the bold, persistent experimentation president roosevelt used during a crisis worse than this one. >> reporter: the president went on to say democrats should regard government as a solution for every problem but it was a strong defense as some role for government, education, science, innovation, and he left vice president biden to do the sharper attack on mitt romney, framing romney's values and approach in the context of the auto rescue, saying that mitt romney, even though his father ran an auto company during the '50s and 1960s, simply didn't understand the value of that industry to the american people. here's joe biden.
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>> i don't think he understood that saving the automobile worker, saving the industry, what it meant to all of america. not just autoworkers. i think he saw it the bain way. i mean this sincerely. i think he saw it in terms of balance sheets and writeoffs. folks, the bain way may bring your firm the highest profits. but it's not the way to lead our country from the highest office. >> reporter: you've seen an attempt by vice president biden to undercut mitt romney's calling card, which is one of the assertions of the republican ticket, that because mitt romney has worked in business, he knows how to create jobs. we're going to see, as i mentioned, after two weeks, mitt romney got a slight bounce in the polls, a somewhat better increase in the favorable ratings and people feeling good about him. we're now going to wait and measure the results of president obama. these were the last big events
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to potentially shape this campaign before a series of four debates, which begin on october 3rd, guys. >> one thing is the second verse, same as the first. criticisms of the republicans was that they didn't come up with details on this. and i think you could say the same of the speech last night. we don't have real details on how anybody plans to fix the economy. both sides saying, trust me. >> reporter: of course. some of that criticism of mitt romney was a little silly because mitt romney wasn't trying to offer policy details. he was trying to deal with the problem he has as a result of democratic attacks in particular on his business experience. he wanted to make the american people feel a little better about him. that's how his speech was pitched. what president obama was trying to do, again, was not offer a laundry list of policy details but deal with the disappointment of people. that's critical. he had huge turnout in 2008. very enthusiasm base of people, women, african americans,
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hispanics. he has to try to pump up some of those people and that's what he was trying to do last night. it wasn't about policy detail. >> do you know what's most fascinating? i happened to look at "daily news" at gas station, clearest choice in a generation. isn't it weird that both the romney campaign and the obama campaign are both hammering at that? this is the clearest choice in different paths for the future? and then i looked at -- you look at rcp, real clear politics every day, i looked at compilation of national polls, it's 46.7% to 46.7%. i mean, that's -- it's exactly -- well, you don't have to say exactly tied. so both -- there is a choice. it's amazing that both parties are conceding you, the american people, have a choice about two starkly different paths for the future. it's weird. normally it would be one or the other saying, stick with us. it's like this is coming down to
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which type of country you see in the future. >> i'm glad you mentioned that, joe, because that was another subtheme of the president's speech, sort of putting it on the american people. he has confidence that the role for government that he's articulated is one that can get majority support but he's trying to put it on the american people and when he looked at accomplishments he had, he said, you did that. this is how he responded to the, did you build that or not build it? he said to the american people, you build that. you can choose a future. it's a perfect reflection, the numbers you mentioned, of how polarized we are and how ideological the parties are. i would say this as a postscript, i don't think the reality -- >> you made that. >> reporter: -- even close to the -- >> you made that point. four years ago -- i don't know whether it's a fact but supposedly someone said to the president, we have to work on this economy. he goes -- fixing it is not enough for me.
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i want to be transformative. this time four years later he's kind of like not really saying that. he's like, i do want to fix this economy. it's almost like he's sort of learned over the past four years. >> reporter: he wants to do both -- he wants to do both, guys, but he recognizes that if you come in -- if you come in given the mood of the american people, and repeat the same kind of tone and aspiration as four years ago -- >> not going to lower the season, heal the plant at this time. >> reporter: de go back to climate change. >> i heard that. the one thing that surprised me, and i hadn't thought about until this convention, guys, is that he had made this deal with ted kennedy, who was so intent on getting some changes in health care. that was his huge deal. something he'd been trying to do for decades. he regretted he hadn't done it with nixon. until i heard carolyn kennedy speaking, i spore got aboforgot whole thing.
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but kennedy's endorsement was a huge issue that pushed him over the line. >> reporter: that's a perfect signal of the polarization because for democrats that remains a tremendous achievement but it's one that is not broadly embraced or accepted by the american public. it's still a decisive issue. closely divided. not overwhelming one way or the other but a real source of passion for liberal democrats. that's why caroline kennedy was invoking that. >> any sense inside the room -- i know people were cheering but a bounce one way or the other? i was surprised looking at huffington post, which is considered a liberal publication, calling the speech -- saying there was mixed reaction, which might even be polite because i saw a lot of negative reaction. >> it wasn't liberal enough. >> reporter: exactly, joe, that's where some of the disappointment is coming from. people thought it wasn't left enough. as far as a bounce goes, traditionally challengers get bigger bounces because they're less well known to american people and they have a greater ability to mold their image. most people have chosen sides in
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terms of how they feel about obama. however, i would say democrats, generally speaking, and when i talk to republican strategists yesterday, they said democrats have had a more successful convention than we have. the question is, what does that translate into? a top obama strategist told me last night, maybe we get one or two points, in a really good case the upside is three or four points. we'll have to see, you know. i think most political professionals did not expect much from either convention going in. that was justified in the case of romney. he got a couple of points. that's kind of reseceded. we'll see if obama gets any. >> all right. we got 30 seconds? you want -- okay. i want to do the whole brokaw thing i was watching with brian williams. brokaw was feeling light-headed. turn out -- did you see on brian william, he had taken -- >> taken half an ambien.
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>> when you see something like that, you're worried, especially about brokaw. we were immediately, oh, my god -- >> before we knew it was ambien. >> right. because he's an icon, we love him. the paragone of nbc. i think the ambien was made up. i think he caught a glimpse of the president checking out the stage and just started getting -- you know, getting a piece of paper. i think that's the next step after a thrill runs up your leg. i think -- >> are you talking about chris matthews -- >> i think the thrill runs up your leg first and then you basically almost -- almost faint. but in any case, he's fine and -- but it was cute because he said his daughter's a daughter. you don't just take a pill -- thought it was a baby aspirin. >> that's not the first time i've heard that has happened. i know a lot of people have taken the wrong people and taken an ambien. it's dangerous.
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i couldn't keep in my house. >> not in your pill box. have you ever taken one? >> to be honest with you, i like lunesta. on an airplane, lunesta -- >> you guys are crazy. i would never take a sleeping pill at all. we're so tired, we don't need anything. >> on an airplane. >> you're going to take -- >> i don't -- >> you're going to take the wrong people. >> advil p.m. by a mile. >> i just turn on cnn. >> so tom brokaw is going to send you a thank you note and cnn is going to send you a thank you note? >> tom, i was saying, we were worried. >> yes. >> let's go across the pond. time for global market report. kelly evans is standing by in london with more on this xstrata deal. good morning. >> yeah, a lot of drama as we've been following that story this
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morning. glencore is the second worst performer on the europe stoxx 600 on a pretty good day in markets, as you can see from the green behind me. index is up 0.5%. we saw stronger gains in asia overnight. we can look at shanghai composite. that had its second strongest day all year. i'm going over here to start, 3.7%. now, this index has been selling off strongly in the last several weeks. we've talked a lot on the program about why, about its vulnerabilities and slowing in chinese economy but the combination of draghi's bond buying plan announced yesterday and china coming out with $160 billion worth of infrastructure stimulus announcement did a lot to lift sentiment. similar gains across the board in asian stocks. even in taiwan, despite weak figures there. ftse 100 is underperformer as we turn our attention to europe. it's up only 0.2%. xstrata shares up 5.5%. this, of course, after the board received a revised offer from glencore with regards to the proposed merger, sweetening the bid to $3.05 shares from 2.8, in
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return trying to put ivan glasenberg in as ceo instead of mick davis. glencore shares down on the news. major moves from ecb yesterday, spain and italy rallying. spain, 5.7% italy, 5.1%. we haven't seen these levels in quite some time. quick look at spanish curve because it's the short end where a lot of this action has been focused. under 3% is what we're seeing here. so, a better tone across the board in bond markets. a pretty good tone in equity markets. the drama over the glencore/xstrata stealing the news today. it will take a strong or weak payroll to focus attention back on what's happening in the u.s. >> kelly evans, thank you so much. coming up, what traders say they need to see in this morning's jobs report.
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first, "squawk" sports. a pennant race. i think it's a four-game series. in is so good. orioles climbing back into first place. tied with the yankees in the a.l. east. baltimore defeated new york 10-6. >> they just played them three times. they play them again four times now? >> i think. where's the pitching? jooifshgs like our all-in-one trade ticket. we put strategies, chains and positions all on one screen. start trading today with optionsxpress by charles schwab.
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. two major market stories. ecb unveiling bond buying
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program and today the u.s. jobs report. the number to beat -- i don't know if it's 125,000 or call it 140,000? joining us now, helen mccroft, following the oil markets and at the cme bob. >> good morning. >> good morning to you. let's go with you, bob, first. on jobs. what do you think the number's going to be and how much does it actually matter today? >> well, i think it's a surprise a little to the upside, the median is around 130,000 and i think the 8.3 come in around 8.1, 8.2. the only reason i say that is because the move yesterday really seemed based on more than just draghi. obviously, draghi was the trigger for it. the euro is going to be around. euro buyers were rewarded by that. to me this number has surprise to the downside to take away that momentum. >> what's baked in? what does the market expect? what are people going to be disappointed with? what are people going to be happy with? >> i think the disappointment has to be drastic.
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they're going to be selling. you're going to see tom profit in the s&ps. there were people that missed that move. slightly lower number, 110,000, 120,000 will still see buyers of dips in the u.s. equities. >> good to see you. let's talk oil. you say we have been way too complacent with the situation. >> absolutely. i think the oil market everyone thought iran was back to negotiations, the political risk premium was gone from the market this year. we've seen the israelis really heighten their rhetoric. if you look at the negotiations, you look what iranians are doing in terms of enrichment, we don't see an ease off-ramp. i don't see this issue going away. >> where do you think this goes? >> we have 117 for brent for year end. 125 for brent next year. we think the political risk premium is upside and we're looking at the latter half of 2013 because we think that's the decision point. either you live with iran having nuclear weapons capability or
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take legal action to forestall that. >> how does economy play into this? >> i mean, look at the 125,000, is it does forecast a softer landing for europe. we see chinese demand this year up 12% year-on-year for oil demand. we have not seen demand fall off radically. we look at the market in terms of the supply side. and that remains relatively constrained. we simply don't have that much spare capacity out there right now. that's why iran is so important. we've taken a million barrels of iranian exports off the market. yes, saudis could add potentially another 1.7 million but that's what's out there in terms of additional supply. >> do you have a model? do you add things in? is there a qe3 anywhere? >> we look at that, obviously, that's sort of forecast into our price. what i look at -- >> fundamental. >> yes. what i look at in terms of
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political risk premium, why it matters so much, is issues like what has the arab spring done for oil prices for producers? how much more do they need to balance our budget? what's the new floor for saudi arabia? >> you don't see any of the -- the move from 80 back up to -- 75 back up to -- that's not qe3? that's actually warranted by fundamentals, or is some -- the anticipation of qe3? >> i think in terms of the europe situation. that's a big story in terms of when you had real concerns about europe, i think that was really driving the selloff. i think right now, with the expectation of a softer landing, that's certainly factored in. we look at the demand picture in qe3 really came back and i think that's why the market's tightened. have you to add in the political risk factor. >> we are to leave it there. thank you for coming in. bob, thank you as well. >> thank you. >> we'll be talking to you very soon again. we're going to take a quick break right now. we have a top executive from russian oil giant luke oil joining us on set. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,
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♪ good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew "dice" sorkin. do it again? jack and jill go up the hill with a buck and a quarter -- let's leave it right there.
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andrew "dice," do it. the top story, august employment report, dow jones news service says the economy likely added 125,000 jobs last month. adp was 201,000. why is it 125,000? >> i don't know why nobody raised their expectations because adp was dead on last month. >> rupert murdoch is he able to editorially inspire news wires or -- >> no. >> if rupert were in charge it would be up to 170,000. that's a "new york times" number. >> my guess is that traders would be a little disappointed and maybe the public. >> the new york times number adding 10,000. anybody above 10,000 would be a plus for president obama. >> one additional job, you'll get a headline they beat expectations. >> did you dictate that or
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someone above you? >> is there anybody above? >> see, you're not tired. >> unemployment rate is seen holding steady. not in your mind, though. >> i have many bosses who i love very much. >> what's that, master of -- anyway, i can't -- >> jack of all trade. >> yeah. steady, 8.3%. this is -- i think i'm more interested. i think it's going to be a good number, 150 or above, something like that. >> probably has to be above 200 depending upon how the labor force stands to knock down the unemployment rate. >> i'm interested in with what happens with the overall number. you've got three more reports, you could be at below 8%. we'll have complete coverage throughout the morning -- morning. our guests include kraft group president and new england patriots president jonathan kraft. he will bring us a unique economic indicator that involves food, manufacturing and football. and in the next hour, guest
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host, sure to inform as well as entertain, mark cuban is going to talk everything from jobs to his facebook fight with andrew. >> yeah, this is interesting. i didn't realize you were going back and forth. >> i don't know. it's going to be -- we'll have an interesting discussion. >> you both present your side. we'll see how it goes. >> he responded to the column you wrote. >> i wrote a column, he responded, i responded -- >> he does exactly -- >> he thinks the ipo was perfect. >> yes. first, another newsmaker joins us on set. >> we're talking oil with andre, deputy ceo of luke oil. thank you for being here today. >> thank you for having me. >> we were having a conversation about oil prices. as we've watched them get closer to $100, what does that mean for an oil company as prices go up like that? >> well, most of the time it means -- means good things, but it's interesting for russian oil
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companies, we are fairly stable. it's the higher prices go, the government takes more money, the prices fall, the government takes money, but we stay fairly stable. >> how long has that been happening with russian oil companies? >> for a good decade. that's how the tax situation. >> what does that mean in terms of constraints in what you can do? you can control -- you have more of a steady hand on what happens but it's hard to see ups and downs and swings with some of these things? >> well, it's what you do that really counts. you know, we try to cater more for domestic consumers right now. we actually increased our ibida to $5.5 million from domestic downstream, one of the highest numbers we've ever seen in the past. so, you know, right now our domestic segment, which used to
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account for a very small number of earnings in ebida, accounts for 30% total for the group, which is obviously -- very good, sort of healthy business mix we're increasingly developing. >> i have to imagine you still care an awful lot about what happens to oil prices. >> sure. >> even though the government takes so much off the table. where do you see prices headed over the next six months? the analyst we spoke to said she was looking for $125. >> we believe we're generally in the higher group price environment right now. it's very important to understand whenever there's a reset of crude prices, every time there is a lot of volatility before they reset at a new level, and we do believe after the huge royalty that we
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saw like three years ago, the prices did reset themselves at sort of $85 to $125 a barrel. and that's where they're going to be probably for medium term going forward. >> do you look at the action of central bankers globally and factor that in to why oil is where it is? i mean, we have this in every country and all currencies -- you know, it's -- oil should go up against all currencies. >> this is purely inflationary thing. that's what you're talking about. >> kind of, yeah. even the anticipation of inflation. >> well, i guess so. but, you know, we actually look more -- the answer is, yes, we do factor it in but we look at fundamentally where that supply/demand situation is. looking at production curve, what are the marginal costs of production. >> i think i would be listening to everything they said and if
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they get nukes. all bets are off. >> if they get nukes, all bets are off. you don't care where -- >> do you report to your superiors back in russia right now? >> what do you mean? >> i'm just wondering. the last thing i saw was this great band, which now they play all the time, a couple of girls in jail over there for singing a protest. i mean -- >> oh. this is -- this is something that -- >> you don't want to -- >> well, no, i see it as -- >> but the more -- if you were in jail for two years for singing i song, you might not think it's overplay. but the more things change, the more things stay the same over there. >> it's just one of though things, i understand a few girls are in munich for the same reason. that's not really -- >> everybody's doing it. >> it's not everybody doing it. >> he needs to be careful with what he says. >> right. we want to see you again here some time. that's right. we don't want to send a remote -- >> comments on putin's
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paragliding affair this weekend? did you see that? >> i didn't see that. >> an affair in a paraglider? >> oh, please. >> all right. >> i got to see that. is there a video? >> there is a video. you didn't see it? it's unbelievable. >> i would like to see it. >> doing karate with his shirt off -- >> it's one of these things. unbelievable. >> one thing before you go. the idea of the economy at this point, you say you're looking at the supply and demand and the demand side is the economy. we have had a lot of people who have come on here recently and who have taken both sides of this. they think the economy is going to turn over the next couple of years here in the united states, no matter who's in charge. others think we're headed well down from here. how do you see it? how are you kind of playing this out? >> i really see that the u.s. has one of the most dynamic economies. a lot of entrepreneurs that can always figure out where else to take their companies. and i think this is -- we have seen that in shell gas, where shell gas went from nowhere to
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50, 60, now 80 billion cubic meters of annual production. it's unbelievable. and i think this is something that, you know, we do believe in the u.s. economy in the fact that, you know, u.s. cooperations will always come up with new ways of satisfying that demand. >> andrei, thank you. >> thank you. coming up, the jobs report could become a political football on the campaign trail. new england patriot president jonathan kraft will join us with a unique indicator. first, what happens when you send a conservative free market economist to the dnc with a microphone? peter shift found out and he'll join us live at 6:50 a.m. here's a little preview of that. >> how about a cap on profits? we say -- >> i would agree with that. >> would you be in favor of a law banning corporate profits? >> of course. by working people. the economy needs manufacturing. machines, tools, people making stuff.
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companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure, construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars back in the u.s. economy this year. in pipes, cement, steel, jobs, energy. we need to get the wheels turning. i'm proud of that. making real things... for real. ...that make a real difference. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina,
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we're back on "squawk." a little less than two hours away from the august jobs number. joining us to talk about it, jonathan kraft, president of the kraft group and new england patriots. thank you for joining us this morning. i'm told there's a special kraft indicator. and i'm hoping you can help tell us what that indicator is for what this number may ultimately be in two hours. >> i don't know, andrew. that's the first i've heard of the kraft indicator. our core business is corrugated boxes. we serve all elements of the economy. i think we've got a good look into where economic activity is. i think how it correlates to jobs month to month is not spot
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on but definitely trends properly. >> i was referring to the corrugated boxes as the indicator, so we're on the same page. >> correct. >> in terms of areas of decline, areas of increase, what are you seeing? >> really for us, year over year, if we look at same store sales, customers we had a year ago that we have today, things literally are flat. they're right at a zero baseline. we started out the first quarter of the year strong. and today we're probably back to zero. so, we've probably given up the two points of gain in the first quarter. really the areas that have been hit the hardest are the machine parts, the metal, plastics, the things that are created that go into other products. they're down well over 15% year-on-year. the real bright spot has been apparel, where we're up over 25% on unit volume. and i think you saw that come through the retail numbers a week ago. the biggest indicator, though, i
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think of the economy at large is food. and food is flat on zero year over year. i think from our perspective the economy continues to trend water. >> your expectation of the number later today? do you want to wager a guess? >> we don't -- i don't pay attention to that month to month. i think i was on in april and i said we had seen things starting to slow down. and that showed up in the number. but i -- i'm uncomfortable doing that. i can tell you, as i visit small and medium size companies, who our customers of ours, they're not hiring. they are very unsettled about the future of this country. >> are you hiring? >> we're not. we're working overtime. i think we want to see how things play out in washington and understand all the costs and risks associated with hiring new employees because every time -- every time you hire somebody, you're taking on an obligation
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that if it doesn't work out, for whatever reason, there are now costs associated with getting out of that investment. >> where is your dad? is he actually at practice? is he in the line right now? what is he, yelling at belichick? where is he right now? >> i think he's probably working out. that would be my guess, joe. he's working out, wishing he was you. >> tell him hi. would you agree with me the giants got exactly what was coming to them by the cowboys? i mean, did you and your father send flowers to jerry jones? what did you do after that? i mean, did that feel good to you? just say yes. >> you know, the best part of that game was the rating. it trounced everything else on television that night. >> now you're talking -- it was on nbc, too, so you're exactly right. that was the best thing about it. >> jonathan, before you go, i was reading in the notes, you're planning on miking up players. is that something you're trying to do? >> i think that related to -- we're going to announce on
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monday with a company called intarsis we're going to make a substantial multimillion dollar investment for our stadium -- we have made it, where you'll be able to have 70,000 people, give them wi-fi access all at once, with almost half of them being able to stream rich media. this year we're going to give them the nfl red zone so they can get in stadium what they get at home. eventually you'll see us mike up players and the audio being exclusively available to people in the building. >> very cool. appreciate your time this morning. >> no problem. >> that father has lost 50 pounds or something. >> he's looking great. dallas mavericks owner, mark cuban, fan favorite, never one to mince words. first, a video that's gone viral. we'll find out what happens when you see a free market economist to mingle with delegate as the dnc. >> would you support a new
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federal law to ban corporate profits? >> give me a second to think about that. i would like to put a cap on it. most rare and magical fruit. which provided for their every financial need. and then, in one blinding blink of an eye, their tree had given its last. but with their raymond james financial advisor, they had prepared for even the unthinkable. and they danced. see what a raymond james advisor can do for you.
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i think what we should probably do is split up investment banking and banking. >> the statement that shocked wall street. >> have banks do something that's not going to be too big to fail. next week only on "squawk box" bankers talk back on consumer risk, bank value, and the state of banking regulation.
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♪ >> i wish i would have this before the russian guy came on. they are playing -- the improvement became very popular after the situation. anyway, that was a peter schiff request, that song. he is a well known conservative, free market economist and radio show host and plays that song on his radio. you don't do you? >> i don't know. i'm not in charge of music. >> i am. this week he visited the dnc, reported it all. the video has gone viral. check out a small piece of the video. >> do you think it's fair corporations make all these profits? >> no, i don't think it's fair that they make that many profits. >> would you be in favor of a law that banned corporate profits? >> corporate profits? yes. yes. >> reporter: would you support president obama if he came out in favor of a law to ban corporate profits? >> yes. >> the video has gone viral. peter joins us to talk more
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about -- did you have anyone say that's ridiculous? did you have anyone say, the profit incentive sets prices and also allocates capital to its most effective -- >> there were some people that understood. remember these are delegates, not the people on the stereet - this is the cream of the democratic crop. >> right. >> probably at least half of the people did think i was wrong. they did disagree. >> they did. >> but the other half wanted to cap corporate profits. >> andrew, i mean, that's reasonable. i mean, they do make too much a lot of them right now. >> that is not true. >> okay. >> anyway. >> i'm sorry. i misunderstood. >> at least half of the rest of them wanted to outright ban corporate profits. >> right. >> they'd put your show out of business. you wouldn't have to worry about reporting earnings. they'd always be zero. >> what is the disconnect just in -- i mean, i'm amazed.
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there are those terrible sayings, no one ever went broke under estimating, blah, blah, blah, but can't you see most jobs are from businesses? >> i can see that. >> and who doesn't know that employment and jobs come from the private sector and businesses? who doesn't know that? >> a lot of democratic delegates. the problem is this is the core of the democratic party. i mean, they like to talk about the fringe elements of the republican party and the tea party. they're out there. first of all i don't think they are. they believe in the constitution, limited government, sound money. those things are extreme to the democrats, but this is the core of their party. i'd love to see barack obama come out and repudiate this video because i don't think he can because he'd alienate his base. >> he would say that's not true but he has shown his hand in other ways in saying i think if you made enough money maybe you should stop or i think you, you know, i've heard many times in fact just in the first lady's speech most recently, go into the giving fields.
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don't go into -- it's more noble to receive something in money or charity than it is to give someone a job. more noble. more virtuous. >> they don't really understand capitalism. in michelle obama's speech she said it's more important to try than to succeed. it is not how much money you make but how hard you work. >> these are all good platitudes. no one is going to disagree money doesn't help happiness and we want to help people that need help. they put forward all these platitudes as if -- they have the good stances. they want to help children. the republicans don't. they want to help people get education. the republicans don't. they want to help people have retirement. every time they say that -- >> all they want to do is talk about it. look at who they're appealing to, people who don't understand what a profit is. what they don't understand is the people who help people are the people who make the most money because making money is a sign of how many people you helped because you figured out what the consumer wanted and gave it to them at a low price and that is how you got rich. >> as long as there is competition. now it's a global market place.
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>> it's always been a global market place. >> but our companies need to be as lean as they can to succeed in a global market place and then hire people here to have jobs. >> what we need, i disagree with romney. romney said what we need is jobs. we don't need jobs. we need freedom. if the government got out of the way and we were free then we'd have all the jobs we needed. there are some people who don't want to work. there are people working today who prefer to stay home but the economy is so weak, so much inflation and regulation, taxes are so high they have no choice. they have to work. if we were freer, if we had less government, didn't have all these programs, all this government,egg -- regulations -- >> we need jobs. >> eneed the stuff we can buy with what we earn. we need the productivity of jobs. jobs are a means to an end. we want the stuff we buy but we have to make it first. >> you're going to maintain your dignity and earn your success. we all strive to retire. that means we can stop working. >> thank you very much. coming up the one and only making his way to center court.
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mark cuban billionaire businessman and dallas mavericks owner. we'll talk jobs, politics, facebook, and much, much more. a passionate belief, and the foundation on which merrill lynch has been built. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch.
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squawk box talking jobs in america. >> did you see the memo about this? >> we're winding down a crucial employment report. >> dallas mavericks owner mark cuban discusses the strength of america's work force, the economy, and facebook and is our guest host for the next two hours. >> and president obama presents his vision for america. >> problems can be solved. our challenges can be met. and that is why i'm running for a second term as president of the united states. >> how the campaign will sell a job creation plan now and appeal
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to swing voters. the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ well i won't back down no i won't back down ♪ ♪ you can stand me up at the gates of hell but i won't back down ♪ >> good morning everybody and welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin and joe kernan. we've been watching the futures, a big day ahead of the jobs report. the futures are indicated higher the dow futures up by 29 points, s&p futures slightly higher as well. everything is resting on what we hear just 90 minutes from now when we get the government's august jobs report. consensus forecast calling for 125,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs. the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 8.3% after what we heard from abc yesterday there are some people who are expecting a slightly higher number than even the 125. shares of pandora could take a hit today. "the wall street journal" reports that apple is considering its own custom radio service similar to the one pandora offers. apple wouldn't comment on the
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report. and the yield on spanish ten-year bonds has fallen below the 6% level for the first time since may. this all comes after the unveiling of the ec b's new bond buying plan yesterday. at the peak that yield had been well above 7% and that's a level that is considered unsustainable over the long term so at least the immediate reaction from the markets is that this plan from draghi yesterday seems to have worked. >> and it certainly did. you know, the edp number didn't hurt yesterday either. >> no. and jobless too. >> but that was up in the air because you know the adp number you don't know qe 3. we have to factor that in too. we'll too that when we get the number today. president obama asking voters to grant him four more years with the promise that the nation's economic problems can be solved. cnbc's john harwood joins us now with more. geez, john. so you were averaging -- are you napping during the day at all? >> reporter: i napped a little bit yesterday actually. >> good. >> reporter: last night not so
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much because we of course went quite late and then are back early this morning. but it was both of these conventions back to back are kind of a grind schedule wise but also for somebody who likes politics and is interested in the cut and thrust of political debate it's a fascinating explanation or demonstration of the differences between the two parties and what we saw last night in this convention hall from the democrats was a defense of the role of government. that is really the core of the democratic argument and trying to make the case that republicans would pull back government to the detriment of the economy and the american people. here's how president obama framed it with reference to tax policy and regulation. >> i don't believe that another round of tax breaks for millionaires will bring good jobs to our shores or pay down our deficit. i don't believe that firing teachers or kicking students off financial aid will grow the economy or help us compete with the scientists and engineers coming out of china.
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after all we've been through, i don't believe that rolling back regulations on wall street will help the small business woman expand or the laid off construction worker keep his home. we have been there. we've tried that. and we're not going back. we are moving forward, america. >> now, of course, the american people are going to decide whether they're going forward with obama's vision. i talked with a republican strategist this morning, veteran of the 2008 presidential campaign, who said i think some potentially uninspired democrats will be inspired by the speech. he may have moved the needle with some of those who voted for him in 2008 who like him but think he is doing a lousy job and hasn't produced the results they want. we'll have to see over the next couple weeks how much he moved that needle. i got to tell you guys as a post script as you prepare for the jobs report i don't think the jobs report is going to be that important in political terms unless it's horrible. if it's horrible that is a blow to obama, but we've already got baked into the cake the idea
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that this is a weak economy, a weak recovery, a jobs number, even on the up side it's still not going to be enough to bring down the unemployment rate. this is likely to be a status quo report. our friend who worked for john mccain in 2008 told me he expects about 130. others, mark zandi and jared bernstein a little higher up to 140 or 150 but nothing is going to be a knock it out of the park number. no one is expecting that, guys. >> john, thank you very much. again, john harwood who has been doing incredible work for us at both these conventions. we'll see you a little later today. let's welcome our guest host for the next two hours mark cuban who is owner of the dallas mavericks and chairman of hd net. he is joining us onset and, mark, it has been way too long since we have seen you. we are thrilled to have you here today. >> i appreciate it. glad to be here. >> you doing anything else? >> a couple things. you know, shark tank the bastion
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of free enterprise premieres. we're taking a big shot at all live tv all the time, live live approach to network television and there are about 70 other businesses i'm involved in and keep busy on. >> we were talking about just a couple things. we didn't realize you were doing businesses with. you are constantly thinking of new ways and new ways to get involved right. >> we wanted to start out talking about politics though. >> sure. >> and where you see this. we've just gone through both the rochester and democratic conventions and as far as i can tell there weren't a lot of details from either side about how they'd be coming up with jobs. >> i'm neither. i like to think for myself. i think the whole idea that associating yourself with hey i'm a democrat o are a republican and this is our stance is in itself just ridiculous. as far as what i've seen i agree with you. romney had a chance to come out and say this is what we're going to do to create 23 million jobs. he didn't. president obama had a chance to come out and say yeah, you know,
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i need four more years and here's what i need it for. he didn't. so the debates are going to be very telling and we'll see what happens there. >> what do you think needs to happen to create jobs? what's gone wrong? how do we get back ontrack? >> look, i'm a believer that the president doesn't have near as much influence or control as we would like to think. we'd like to make this election about, boy, if we get the right person doing the right things, but in our form of government there is just, you know, no one person has that much influence or control. i'm a big believer in free enterprise that it comes down to the individual but it's not just about let's just cut taxes. let's just get government out. we're too far in. if you want to use the sports analogy you may be a running team for an entire game but if you're down 20 points with three minutes to go you become a passing team. we put ourselves in a hole where we're down 20 points with three minutes to go and you can't just stick to dogma. you have to deal with the realities of where we're at. >> though both sides of this have tried to paint this. joe was making the point
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earlier. both sides have said this was the most important election that you're going to make in our lifetime. >> every election is the most important. >> to both sides seems to be -- if you talk to the republicans they go look at what this guy is proposing to do. look at his path to socialism. then the other side is saying look at what the republicans are trying to do. they're trying to reverse everything lbj and fdr did. >> this would become the wwe election right? where you just stand -- >> and the american people do have a choice of which way they really want it to head. >> again, in our form of government -- symbolically, yes. where we'd like to believe the democrats are going further left and the republicans further right, look, you can make the argument you don't vote for a president you vote for his team. if i vote for mitt romney, i'm really voting for karl rove and if i vote -- >> glenn hubbard. if you vote for obama you're
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voting for david axelrod who used to run john edwards' campaign. don't throw rove in without axelrod. >> i'm not arguing either. but that's the point. i don't feel comfortable for that. >> i don't think rove is working for romney. >> the super pac. >> right. all the throw off the bridge, you kill this person and all of the dramatic stuff is coming from the super pacs. not the candidates. >> do you give money to -- >> no the closest i came to a super pac was with steven colbert we were going to buy out the south carolina election and rename it the steven colbert election. >> how many times a week do people come to you to say we're starting a super pac and we want you to back us? >> early on a lot. everybody had their reasons. not so much anymore. >> give us a story. >> i mean, just the normal stuff. right? and i get e-mails from everybody but nothing overly dramatic. nothing terrible. >> i was most proud and what
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was -- how long ago was it -- mama mia, mama.com, what was that? >> let's not talk about that one. >> you were such a man. really? what did i do? they had nothing. they had absolutely nothing. >> let's not go there. we'll go there another time. >> all right. you were lucky. >> i still am. >> really? prove it. >> let me just tell you this on that whole thing with the s.e.c. >> did you actually go -- >> in the process yeah. lefty to a righty. when it's done and all over i'm going to take every document and put it online and let everybody see. okay. now how full of beans is sorkin about facebook? >> i wrote the forward for andrew is it your first book? >> no, for alex's book. >> i thought it was your book. okay. >> alex's book you wrote the forward which is fantastic.
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>> okay. in any event on facebook, look, buyer beware. if you're an investor you ought to know what you're buying. if he's my cfo and i'm telling him that i don't want to deal with wall street any more than i have to, just go get me what you can get me and let's go back to work. i thought that's what their cfo did. i traded in facebook. i got my butt handed to me. next. >> we want to come back to facebook. on politics, though, i'm curious. you're -- >> you're curious. >> no. you're not taking a position, you're not planning on voting? >> no. i'll vote absolutely. >> you just don't want to say publicly -- >> i haven't fully decided. i am leaning toward obama right now but i want to give romney a chance to say what he has to say. >> what if romney was a democrat? >> i would vote for him. think about this. if he is a democrat or more of a sen trit republican then he can walk out and say obama care? i invented it and i did it right and it worked.
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okay. debt? the republicans say far less debt. democrats say more debt. who knows how to use debt better than me? bain capital. i've been able to go out and borrow money but even better we have effective, negative effective interest rates right now. if i can't figure out how to create jobs with negative effective interest rates, what have i been doing my entire career? you know, all the social issues he's been on the other side. if he was to stay true to those. as a democrat i think he'd be far more effective. >> so the social issues that bother you? >> no. i'm just saying if i'm -- if romney were a democrat, the social issues would still match up with the democrat -- >> so the environment for entrepreneurs you think is -- >> better than ever. >> it's been okay? >> it's phenomenal. are you kidding me? look at shark tank. not to talk about a tv show but we sit there for 12 hours a day and just have eight to 12 entrepreneurs come in. i've sat, you know, through that show through 400 pitches. not one time has taxes ever been mentioned. >> what about regulations? >> no, no.
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>> how about credit from small banks? >> no. that's always been the case. it's always been the case where, okay. do i go get a small business loan from the small business administration or do i go equity or do i go sweat equity? it doesn't matter. >> why are corporations flush and yet not spending on long-term capital commitments and not hiring? >> ask the corporations. right? >> we do and every one of them says it's because of regulations and government and bashing business. but if they're the ones deciding whether to spend or not. >> right. >> and they're per receiving it this way and not spending it doesn't matter if it's true. >> i think that is b.s. >> they're obviously not doing it. >> the first question you have to ask why would you take the job of a fortune 500 company? >> take small businesses. they're hiring. >> nobody is hiring. 8.42 months you say we're in a better position than we were four years ago because at that point in time -- >> things were bad. >> are we better off than the '80s? the '90s?
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if you average 5.2% unemployment for a four-year period. >> from a job perspective that is better but an overall risk perspective, we're talking about risk management for major corporations. that's why you're saying they are not hiring or spending the cash. >> all i know is -- >> the risk equation in, you know, four years ago today when we were seeing 500-point swings in the dow, 700-point swings in the dow we didn't know how congress or senate would vote on things. >> right. >> the risk equation was dramatically worse. >> that is the window, the six-month window. i agree with you. we've been through tough -- but in terms of just -- if you got a right track wrong track, 32-point swing, people are feeling something. >> sure. everybody wants jobs. >> i don't remember ever being like this except back in 1978. you weren't even born i don't think. >> look. >> you didn't have -- >> i never graduated from indiana and reading headlines that the unemployment rate in
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northern indiana was 20%. it was through the roof. >> and the misery rate. that's when it was bad. >> we'll continue this conversation with mark cuban. he is sticking around. if you have comments or questions about anything here on squawk shoot us an e-mail and also follow us on twitter. you have a twitter address? >> m cuban. >> all right. still to come this morning morgan stanley's vince reinhart, business professor and former chairman of the president's council of economic advisers our good friend us an tan goolsbee and the number of the morning, reaction from our expert panel including mark zandi and diane swank. stick around. we have a very busy friday morning here on squawk. at optionsxpress we're all about options trading.
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stocks at four-year highs yesterday and this morning the futures are indicated higher once again the dow futures up by 26 points. s&p futures up by four and a half points. >> yesterday's rally, fueled by a couple things. actually steve is here. i want to talk about that. the ecb, today's investment will be focused on the jobs report. number one, i had to be you in, you know, busing cramer and that
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sorkin and cramer both under estimated whether draghi really was saying anything a month ago and he obviously was. >> the market certainly precedes that yeah. >> now youinal -- >> i'm copping to it. >> all right. not happy with it. >> he is a serious guy draghi and we're learning that. >> and in europe there is nothing better than planning for a plan. >> i know but that's as good as it gets. you know -- >> if malta has a problem with something you have to go kiss malta's -- >> how much is the jobs, the adp report yesterday? >> i have a theory on all this and i wrote a column yesterday afternoon which is that it doesn't matter. >> the futures were up 85 points. >> right. i think the market is looking for a two fer here. or even a three fer. better economic growth. ecb action and qe3. >> but if you get a great job
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number. >> i don't think so. >> you don't get qe3. >> i think you still get it. >> why not? >> and i mean, look. there was a surprising lack of upward revision to payrolls yesterday. jp morgan reduced their forecast from 150 to 125. as becky pointed out and joe too overall forecast was ignored and the better data this week. ubs said we don't see much upside risk. adp is unreliable. ism employment indices have tended to lag payrolls and jobless claims moving sideways. it's still 125. another news organization bumped theirs up a little bit. july 163. unemployment estimates 8.3. unchanged from july. there's the adp report. 201,000 private sector jobs. the pace of hiring has slowed dramatically mainly reflecting in my view a return to caution by businesses as the uncertainty around fiscal and regulatory policy has begun to build toward a november crescendo. >> wow. >> and a debate which won't be
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solved until next week about what kind of number could dissuade the fed from its appointed round of adding additional qe. luke crandle writes our call for next week's fed meeting would be reversed. this is andrew ross sorkin's idea -- if private payrolls managed to post a gain of 200,000 or more but lou green says nothing could be reported in the jobs data that will keep bernanke from his appointed deed. it is not logical for him to express grave concern for the state of the labor market and be swayed by one jobs report. let's look at what seems to be a recurrent seasonal pattern. up and down. up and down. the question becomes are we now on another upswing from the swoon that we had in the spring? there's reason for all that. there is the tsunami, european fears and all that. a very quick look at the obama record which is the point of debate here on jobs. 22 months of job growth, 3.3
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million jobs over that period. during the entire term he is down 317 k so he can get to zero over the next three months if things go his way. unemployment has been above 8% for the entire presidency first time in history. i will point out that it depends where you count from right? >> and you have gone from a defender of the dollar, antiqe3 person, someone, a man of reason, to a total qe3 enabler. >> are you the guy tweeting me like all the time? >> everybody is confusing what i'm trying to do which is tell you what the -- what they will or won't do from what i think the fed should or shouldn't do. >> was there money involved in your switch? what did they do for you? >> you're writing all of these tweets to me. that's what you're doing. >> an economist.
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>> liesman, if you keep going you'll get your qe3 like i want it. >> qe3 enabler. from a man of reason. >> you just decided it may be coming but could the jobs number if it's really strong change your mind again? >> it could. i really think when i hear what the fed said, many members think we need more accommodation fairly soon, you will look long and hard for anything in the minutes on that and i think it's pretty definitive. >> they would not have done it. >> had bun onboard. continuing to lend and investe in communities across the country. whether it's supporting a delaware nonprofit that's providing training and employment opportunities, investing in the revitalization of a neighborhood in the bronx, or providing the financing to help a beloved san diego bakery expand, what's important to communities across the country is important to us. and we're proud to work with all of those who are creating a stronger future for everyone.
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coming up next we'll talk more to mark cuban about facebook and have a little debate going. morgan stanley's chief u.s. economist vincent reinhart on today's jobs report, the state of the economy and the market rally. then today at 9:40 eastern, this is big, vice presidential candidate paul ryan joins cnbc to talk jobs, numbers, president's speech and a lot more. "squawk" is back right after this break. at optionsxpress we're all about options trading.
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no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. the statement that shocked wall street. >> split up investment banking. only on squawk box bankers talk back. the future of
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welcome back to "squawk box" everyone. in our headlines this morning the august jobs report now just about an hour away. economists who were surveyed by dow-jones are looking for
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125,000 new nonfarm jobs an unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 8.3%. we'll be watching that very closely. also president obama capping the democratic convention with his pitch for re-election. he told the crowd that the path he's proposing is a harder one but that it will lead to a better place. and the video game industry slump continues. mpd reports that sales during august were down 20% from a year earlier. that was despite some new game titles that featured popular characters like bat man and spiderman. this was the ninth consecutive double digital monthly sales decline. >> thanks, becky. earlier this week i wrote a column about facebook. i put the blame of what i called the ipo debacle at the feet of facebook's cfo david ibresman. today our guest host mark cuban disagreed. he didn't just disagree with me today but before and he wrote on his own blog that the piece was, quote, ridiculous. i think you said it was 180 degrees wrong. >> bring it on. >> i thought we could get into
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it. so putting aside david, who is at fault? i look at this ipo even in the context of facebook, not just the confection of text of inves. i say it was mispriced, clearly 50% down. i think it creates a sense of distrust among investors with the company going forward so if they wanted to do a secondary and -- >> he wants to go back to wall street and wants to do another road show and he is dying to sit down and talk with all the bankers again. so there is a good possibility that happened. >> thank you for the sarcasm. but the other component is more of an operational issue. and you touched on this in your piece. >> right. >> my sense is that the stakeholders in this are not just the outside investors, people like you who invest but really the employees. so much of their compensation over the past several years has been tied up in this company through restricted stock. >> right. >> when they see the stock drop
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50% that actually matters to their bottom line, their wallet, and that could have a material impact on their ability to retain talent, attract new talent. what say you? >> of course. it's a little bit different than the google reference i made earlier because of you can't just reprice restricted stock options but they can always bring out more. they have the opportunity to go back and say look. you stick with us and we'll give it to you and not only some equal amounts but because the stock price is lower you're going to get more -- >> sure. >> i've argued it's mispriced -- >> on any given day there is a price for a stock and a month later it's going to be, was it mispriced? and with you. you made what, $2 billion and if you hadn't -- was that stock mispriced when you cast out the 2 billion? it was okay for that day. facebook to get to raise to 38 people paid it. >> they paid it freely. you paid it freely. >> first of all i didn't invest in the company. i traded the stock. there is a huge difference. i understood the difference
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completely. i lost money on it. >> is it priced right at 19? we assume now it's priced right? >> maybe it's worth 9. who knows what the inherent value -- it depends on any given day. >> absolutely it depends where you measure but ultimately i think this is a long-term game with facebook as opposed to trying to get the highest possible price ever. >> if they were interested, you're right. they should have done it differently, like linked in. linked in put out 8 million shares. if facebook only released 8 million shares the stock would be $300 because the demand would far exceed the supply. >> an interesting point. people have said linked in's ipo was a failure on the opposite end. >> right. >> they didn't get to cash in enough and gave a gift to all of their investors. >> right. >> i would argue at some level of failure but at some level might actually work in the sense they held back a lot of stock. >> right. >> they got a huge valuation because there was such a limited supply. now they've been able to go out by the way and put out more
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stock. >> i get that. if you're sitting there running the company saying okay let's go to maximize my stock price relative to the amount of cash i can bring in. >> on a long-term basis. >> that's fine. i can understand it. if you're mark zuckerberg and very honest, very straight forward, and very clear to say, i really don't even want to go public, i'm doing this, a, because i have to. if i'm going to have to do it i only want to do it once. by the way, i'm not trying to maximize your share holder price. i'm trying to change the world. he was straight forward about it. that's his goal and more power to him. >> one of the things he did though, one the reasons he came public was to try and allow his employees to be able to cash in on some of that, too. andrew, you made the point that for employees who are stuck holding this they're not in a great position. i wonder what that means for morale within the company. >> look, having been in comparable situations, certain types of options you can reprice. you see that happen all the time. >> right. >> then restricted. you can grant more. if you're granting based off a
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dollar amount then that means they're getting more shares for that dollar amount so i'm sitting there saying look. if you believe you believe and you're going to have more shares when it's said and done. >> you want to make sure no retail investor ever trusts wall street again or ever buys another stock. >> i wrote a blog saying just that, this was a critically important ipo for the market psyche. >> you say you bought in as a trade. >> right. >> is there a price you're a believer? is this a long -- by the way, you've gotten out of yahoo. >> a whole different issue. it wasn't a cash deal. >> mispriced. >> no. it was a stock deal. i knew that bubble was going to burst so i hedged. in this particular case the challenge with facebook as an investment is the fact that there's 2.7 billion shares outstanding minus whatever they buy back. that is the challenge. it gets down to a completely different argument versus valuation based off of value in the company versus supply and demand for a stock that doesn't pay dividends. and i think supply and demand
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overtakes the valuation of the company. and so as long as there's 2.7 million shares afloat or anything close to that, an investment. i say that. i think it'll drop and i'll be able to take some but it's a trade. >> to what price? >> 14 i think. >> selling not -- >> right. taking advantage of the volatility built into the price. >> but, i mean, what scares me is just you mentioned yahoo, is yahoo -- >> you mentioned yahoo. >> is yahoo the barn burner, the future of the internet world anymore? how do we know facebook will ever grow into the valuation? >> we say that about every company. >> very few make it. >> well, look. three years ago google had gone from 700 something to 300 something. >> yes. >> all their employees' options were under water. everybody was upset. everybody thought that google had taken advantage of them because they didn't issue guidance. facebook is just basically following the google playbook.
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>> right. >> you know? if they produce and execute they'll be fine. >> while we're talking, since we did mention yahoo, marisa meyer, you a fan? >> yeah. >> does it work? >> it can work absolutely. >> do you care? >> yeah, actually i do. i own some yahoo. >> you do? >> yeah. i own a couple hundred shares. yeah. yes. huge but like a little slice. i'm a fan of marisa's and i think she'll -- there is an opportunity there. >> on the subject of tech, apple is going to be out with its new iphone next week. >> yep. >> but there is this patent lawsuit. you've also written about this as well with samsung. >> yes. >> your view is this ultimately bad for consumers across the board? >> it is bad. you talk about jobs right? all that money spent on legal fees and patent lawsuits that could have been applied to hiring and other things and, look, you talk about holding back job creation for small companies. i've got these little companies getting sued every which way every other day by the dumbest,
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dumbest stuff. you know? and this is just one big example and i'm glad they brought it to the forefront kind of like yahoo versus facebook. i'm glad it came to the forefront. i think it's bad for the country, bad for the consumers. i think patents have to change. >> if you had created the iphone and had samsung doing something quite similar what would your reaction be? >> i'd be hustling. i've been in many businesses where people have copied. going back to broadcast.com and yahoo. we didn't write all the software, we started the business of streaming. you know? there is nothing that youtube is doing that, you know, did in the first three years of life, few things they are doing now we didn't do in 1998 and '99. you know, if we had patented everything youtube would not exist. >> right. >> and i mean i remember i literally still have on my computer patent applications for how do you determine where someone is coming in, all kinds of different things where i said, nah. you know, let's just go out and compete. >> you sorry you didn't do that? >> yeah a little bit honestly because it would have been free
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money you know? and yahoo did some of those things after the fact. i read something from the general counsel of apple who left in 1989 and he said in 1989 apple had one patent. whether or not that's true i don't know. it's just what i read. but they had one patent. back in the '80s? you had clones. you know? that allowed compaq to be a competitor to ibm, helped grow the pc industry, the networking industry. now what do we have? you know, pull down to the edge of the screen and if it bounces back, you know, you can't -- twitter has the pull down to refresh. everybody uses pull down to refresh. now, if twitter goes out and starts suing everybody what is going to happen? you know, rounded curves. in shark tank we had a guy who literally had a hoody and he had a corridor to put head phone wires and he had it patented and was out suing everybody. that is ridiculous. you talk about policies that are going to change what small businesses do. there is no -- you talk about the risk factor. there is no small business in
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america today that is not at risk from being sued by some idiot who is trying to get a quick dollar. or wants to protect their market because they're afraid of the competition. >> the patent office has real trouble figuring out what is new and what is not when it comes to technology because things move so quickly. how do you address nah? >> the first thing you do is either get rid of software patents weren't in place in the first place and we had a huge technology boom without them or restrict them considerably. i'm working with the eff electronic freedom foundation. i just gave them money for the mark cuban antistupid software patents something whatever they're going to call it to limit software patents to five years. so, look. five years is the lifetime of the tech industry. if you want protection give you some protection but then let's compete. because you talk about anticompetitive, i don't blame apple for doing what they're doing. that's just the business world today. >> right. >> but i still think it's wrong. >> who irritates you more, a really bad nba ref or the s.e.c.?
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>> i'm not going to go there. >> what? either/or? >> who do i want to write a bigger check to? >> you're not writing checks to nba refs? have you tried? has that worked? >> david stern. >> one guy is doing time i think. a cell mate. >> dang. >> coming up, thank you. this was fun. >> by the way you're a fan of apple? >> i have been in the past. i don't own it any longer but the stock is great. >> what device? >> samsung galaxy phone. i just switched from a side kick because i used key board all the time and i obviously have one of these. >> not bad. >> but i got an ipad. >> maybe that is the alternative, joe. blackberry versus -- >> so is there a key board on the galaxy thing? >> no, there is not. but with the galaxy i can use third party key board software so now i use --
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>> much better? >> i think it's called switch key. i forget the name of it. the third party. so now i can type faster because it kind of anticipates. >> but it's stale touch screen? >> still touch but you log into your google account and it goes to and analyzes all the e-mails you sent and understands what and how you type and has a speed typing mode. >> that's creepy. >> but it works. i can type a lot faster. >> we would need you to set that up for us. >> it's easy. >> still a screen. >> but you can set the size. you know, apple, they're a closed environment. you can't go out and get the third party enhancements like you can. >> i'm interested in those. i don't even know what air talking about. how would you -- do you know how to bring -- >> with an apple phone you -- >> do you have an android phone? >> i do not. >> you going to get one now? >> because of mark absolutely. >> facebook too? >> no. >> come on. >> he didn't say you were 179
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degrees wrong or 181 degrees. >> he said -- >> i proved my point. right? >> he did. >> yeah he did. >> i deal with this every day. >> i like to think i proved my point. final question just on tech in terms of you are thinking about new investments in the tech world? >> sure. >> when you look at the dropping facebook stock, zynga, groupon, whatever, and you look at internet companies entrepreneurs come to you all the time. is it changing your calculus in terms of valuation now? >> no. there is a renaissance for start ups right now in the technology world because in five years ago, ten years ago it used to be very capital intensive. you had to have servers. now if you have a lap top, a phone, broadband connection and amazon aws web services connection you can start pretty much any company that you want and that is exactly what's happening. the cost of start up companies has dropped like a rock and the number of companies being started in the tech industry has exploded. >> but you consider this a bubble? >> no. i think there's a bubble in silicon valley because they're
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in their own little universe so when i look at the valuations for start ups in the valley they start at 5 million and go up and i just laugh. once you get outside the valley whether it's l.a., anywhere else in the country, you know, you can invest in -- >> texas is on the hot bed. >> oh, yeah but the valuations are a million dollars, 2 million dollars. you know, you put up $200,000, and amazing things can happen. >> what is your hottest little start up right now? >> a company called motion loft.com. >> what do they do? >> they develop these sensors that have gone from this big to this big that you put on the front of a building so we're just blowing up here in new york. you see a for lease sign at a commercial building in new york and you want to tell a potential lessee how many people were driving by, how many cars or bikes were going by you used to have to pay somebody to do this which didn't work. you take a motion loft sensor and in real time it counts. it doesn't identify the people but counts the number of people going by. >> so a camera. >> a camera that has software
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built into the asic, the sensor itself, that will tell you on the dash board exactly how many. we just went with a major retailer who said we don't know what time we should open up our stores in these major markets. now they can count. you want to know how many people are going by this empty spot you can count. >> are you trying to change the world or trying to double your network? you would like to double your network. >> yeah. look. >> how many yachts can you water ski behind, mark? >> trust me. i'm not a boat guy. >> do you think if you made enough money you should stop since it is a zero sum game and you are taking it out of the mouths of other people? >> no. because i think by making more money i can go out there and invest in companies and take the responsibility -- it's not just about creating wealth but taking the responsibility to go out and say in our economy in our country right now things are a mess. and i'm not going to depend on -- >> you are so greedy. you're worth $2 million and you
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want to be worth $4 million. you can't possibly use that. there are people that need that money. >> the difference is i'm willing to take the responsibility to say you know what? not every business i invest in -- >> you have to be you sometime. >> that's okay. >> if you're not i will be you. >> i am willing to take the responsibility and i don't think everybody is to say i'm going to invest hundreds of companies. i've invested in 50 companies where i never met the company, alvia e-mail because i know it will create jobs and i think i have that responsibility. >> thank you. this was great. a great conversation. >> coming up -- >> you might now need to go somewhere. >> but he is driving around at 767. no yachts. august jobs report set to hit the tape at 8:30 a.m. eastern. up next we'll get predictions from morgan stanley chief economist vince reinhart. they took it out. it was there temporarily, right? >> only when you came to visit. >> that's an iron man. as we head to break here is president obama last night. >> i worked with business
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leaders who are bringing jobs back to america not because our workers make less pay but because we make better products. because we work harder. and smarter than anyone else. i signed agreements that are helping our companies sell more goods to millions of new customers, goods that are stamped with proud words "made in america."
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how will today's jobs data impact the fed's next move? we are joined this morning by morgan stanley managing director and chief economist vince reinhart. thanks for coming on. >> thanks for having me. >> it is great to get your opinion on this because we just had a long discussion with steve liesman about this and he is quoting quite a few people that say qe3 is coming either way. you agree with that? >> more policy accommodations coming either way. next week they do rate management, extend their commitment to keep rates low into 2015. they're not going to do balance sheet until december. >> but they're going to do it. >> yeah. end of the year. december is the perfect time to revisit the fed reserve's balance sheet policy.
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precedence suggests two of three times they know who will be president. they'll know who is running the house, who is running the senate. they'll have heard the american people's views on policy accommodation. they'll have a few more months to see how ecb policy is getting traction and they can say they're reconsidering the balance sheet because the program they have in place, operation twist, is going to expire at the end of the month. if you have a perfect time to do it in december why do it earlier? >> because it is not a perfect time. that's like a patient who is sick that, you know, you don't give the antibiotic. let's wait until december to give them the antibiotic. if you know you're going to do it and you know they need it, it sounds like the fed has to be sensitive to political concerns is what you're saying. we get past the election. they're not supposed to be a concern with political things. >> yes. the supreme court doesn't read the election results either. my question to you is didn't they know most of the same things in june but all they did was extend operation twist? and they did that and they had a forecast in which they were
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short of both goals maximum employment and stable prices? if they did that in june why do you think they'll do differently in september? >> a lot of people writing vince about around the globe it's kind of a sorry state of affairs that everything is dependent on central bankers. what's wrong with us? what's wrong with us as plan? where is productivity and jobs and everything that we're used to? >> okay. this is exactly like a service comedy in the 1940s or 1950s where everybody lines up and the officer says i need a man to volunteer for a dangerous mission and take two steps forward. well, everybody steps back except the hapless hero. right now the hapless hero are the central bankers. politicians aren't swimming up to the issue and central bankers are the only people with flexible balance sheets who can act in the void. >> we have mark faber on and he is a gloom and doomer obviously. he says eventually the day of reckoning comes where all the central bank printing causes currencies to devalue around the
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world and, you know, you should buy real estate or maybe really blue chip stock. i mean does that come down the road? >> so in theory, central banks have enough time to shrink the balance sheet back as markets improve, as politicians provide the structural change necessary to keep expansion going. historically, they don't normally get it done right. so there's a tail risk to higher inflation. >> what is your number today? what do you think? >> we were at a hundred, read the adp report like everybody else. up to 125. only 125 because we do think there are some seasonal distortions. >> and the rates, it is impossible to say where the rate goes isn't it? >> well, the great thing about the employment report is there are so many different numbers that are going to be released at 8:30. you know both political parties will be able to cherry pick a talking point from it. >> great. well, hopefully you're enjoying the music. flow right with us, vince.
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thank you. we appreciate you coming on today. >> it was worth waiting for the music. >> all right. see you later. all right. we have more to come from our guest host today. dallas mavericks owner mark cuban. don't forget today at 9:40 eastern time vice presidential candidate paul ryan is going to be joining cnbc to talk about the jobs numbers.
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we're back. we're counting down to the number of the morning jobs predictions from our panel of experts. diane swank, mark zandi, mark
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cuban is also in the house. we have a lot to talk about this morning. austan goolsbee. ask me.
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. the wait is almost over.
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we are a half hour away from the jobs report. >> we can create a million new manufacturing jobs in the next four years. >> what america needs is jobs, lots of jobs. >> our jobs panel is ready to bring you predictions and expert analysis. the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernan with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. our guest host this morning mark cuban chairman of hd net, owner of the dallas mavericks. founder of -- i used to -- it wasn't broad com -- sold to yahoo, knew there was a bubble, sold all of it. >> hedged it all. >> hedged it all. >> the internet bubble bursting. it was like you were laughing all the way to the bank. >> you were laughing. you were fine.
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unscathed. more from mark in a bit. but first becky has the, what's going on? >> apparently intel is cutting its revenue outlook. i'm trying to get some of the headlines right now. >> 13.2 billion dollars. >> is what they're cutting it to. let me look at the revenue number. >> it was 13.8 to 14.8 and now down to 13.2. >> down 80 cents. >> all right. we'll keep an eye on that. let's give you some more of the headlines. of course some of the other things we're talking about, intel shares 24.50. the company lowering its third quarter outlook at this point. that is affecting the stock this morning. aside from that though we did have all the major indices climbing to these new highs. the s&p at a four-year high. the question is will stocks be able to hold on to their ground because we have more news that's coming in just a little bit. we have that jobs report hitting in less than half an hour. at that point we'll be finding out what that number is. right now the dow-jones news wire survey says the economy likely added 125,000 jobs last
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month. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 8.3%. we did get a better than expected adp report yesterday of 201,000 versus the 140,000 the street had been expecting. and so we'll take a look at this. joe, you have more? >> mark, softness in the enterprise pc segment and they see customers drawing down inventory rather than adding to inventory. what would all that mean for intel? what are they talking about? is it europe? >> no. it's everywhere. people aren't buying pcs. they're going to a mobile driven -- >> we thought that was going to happen for a while i thought and they're working really hard to get into mobile, right? >> well of course. still, it's tough for a company to transition from desk top and lap top to pure mobile but that's what they're trying to figure out. so i'm sure companies are holding up on their buying decisions. >> slowing emerging market demand they also talk about. >> that i can't help -- >> just talking about china and other --
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>> that is a completely different discussion. i mean, what is going to happen if china instead of growing 10% a year all after sudden they're growing 1% or 2% and are in decline. what happens from a political perspective, if somebody is operating over there? that's a huge question. >> mark zandi, what do you think about that, just the economy overall, the macro economic outlook having an impact on intel. >> china. >> particularly emerging markets, chinese growth down 7% to 7.5% which is slow for china. india is a big economy and slowed quite a bit as well. it's down to 4% or 5% for india. of course brazil, turkey, they've all stalled out. a lot of this has to do with europe. >> mounting macro environment. >> so the em economies are slowed but they're working to reaccelerate growth so for example the chinese announced a whole slough of fiscal stimulus last night. if history is any guide it's
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starting to kick in later this year. >> look at intel. >> the third quarter gross margin now 62%. >> but it finally broke -- remember it's been 22, 24 for five years and now it finally broke out, almost got to 30 and now looking at 24. >> every few years intel misses. it's not shocking. >> you remember it's a $60 stock back when you -- >> back in the day. everything was a $60 stock. >> still gets me. kills me. okay. anyway. let's get back down to north carolina. president obama making his case for a second term asking voters to give his economic policies more time to work. cnbc's john harwood joins us now with more. john? >> reporter: andrew, you know we talked at 6:00 and 7:00 about some of the things the president was trying to accomplish in this speech in this arena last night to appeal for patience as you just mentioned, to deal with the disappointment of some of his supporters who found their hopes were not fulfilled in the first term, to try to inspire democrats to turn out and defend the role of government. but the president also made the
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case that despite republican claims to the contrary, he does in fact want to pursue a balanced deficit reduction strategy along the lines of the simpson/bowles commission that's gotten so much attention. here's the president. >> i'm still eager to reach an agreement based on the principles of my bipartisan debt commission. no party has a monopoly on wisdom. no democracy works without compromise. i want to get this done and we can get it done. but when governor romney and his friends in congress tell us we can somehow lower our deficits, spending trillions more on new tax breaks for the wealthy, well, what did bill clinton call it? you do the arithmetic. you do the math. i refuse to go along with that. and as long as i'm president i never will. >> guys, i got to tell you that
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republicans on capitol hill as well as democrats have some level of optimism. not going to be easy. that if in fact the president's re-elected, republicans hold the house, democrats hold the senate. there is a decent chance that this will happen probably not in the lame duck session but early in 2013. we will see whether that comes to pass. >> okay, john. get some rest this weekend. >> you bet. >> you deserve it. thank you so much. we'll see you next week. >> all right. let's tell you quickly about other corporate news glen corps raising the $34 billion bid for mining company ex-trata now offering a little over three shares for each share. that was up from the originally proposed 2.8 shares. the chairman telling shareholders there had been developments overnight hinting at an improved deal. now this is the new deal. it's all back on the table again. >> for our panel of experts with some predictions ahead of today's jobs report here onset mark zandi, chief economist from chicago, diane swank, and from
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the dnc convention in charlotte austan goolsbee former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president obama and currently an economics professor at the university of chicago's booth school of business. off camera we asked you, mark, did you go up on the adp number? >> i did. i was at 140. >> you went to? >> 150. >> diane, what did you do? >> i'm at 175. >> did you go up after yesterday? >> i did. you know, who knows if i should or not but -- >> i know. >> i'm going with it. >> austan, you know, we're not going to hold you even though you've been really right but did you go up after adp? >> yeah. probably would inch it up a bit. you know adp, a lot of variability but i would say, you know, 125, 130. >> so you're still low. dow-jones was at 125 before adp and is at 125 now. do you know why, mark? >> i don't. i'm surprised. i mean, talking to people it sounds like they're higher than that. so everyone that i knew yesterday was marking up -- i'm
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very surprised at 125. >> people, you know -- >> it all could be wrong. >> but in the real world then let's forget dow-jones, what are we looking for that would be hitting the number exactly -- 140? >> well, i think 150. >> 150. >> yeah. 150. i mean, that's the average monthly job growth over the past year, the average monthly job growth over the next six months consistent with 2.5% gdp growth. 150 is the number. >> austan, you still got a little tinge of not getting too far ahead of yourself. and what you said about adp, i have coined the term, the goofus. are you still negative, austan, or -- >> no. i'm starting to come back. mark has been persuading me a little. i have been well below expectations and now am about to expectations. i think we'll start getting the
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seasonal adjustment thing going the other way. in the months coming i think we might start getting some positive. you see the growth rates start kicking up. that is really the thing that drives the jobs number so it's making me a little more optimistic. >> austan, what about the rate itself? does that change -- could you actually call lisa up and say listen, a couple assumptions in there, if you could just assume it a little different we'd like this rate down a little. >> you were able to do that. >> never going to give this up, joe. >> were you able to -- >> no we did not. >> you never did that? you're telling me -- >> it's a bureau of labor statistics which is, they're insulated from that. they are not allowed to do that. >> you know the unemployment rate, correct me if i'm wrong. it was 8.25%. >> i know. >> you go down -- >> the rate went up on the same
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grounds. >> i just want to talk to someone who was actually there who would actually know whether he had done that in the past or not. okay, austan. i'll take your word for this. i hope it doesn't come back to haunt you because you just told us directly you didn't do that. you guys think down or up on that? >> i think we're at eight three. >> you do. why? >> because we're going to still round up to 8.3. to get unemployment moving south in a consistent way, we need job growth that's closer to 200 -- >> can't you get people leaving the work force again? >> it's not happening. >> really. >> it's pretty solid. we're getting 1, 1.5% labor force growth so with that kind of growth you need closer to 200 k to get it moving. >> diana, are you at 8.2, 8.3? >> actually at 8.1 but who knows? >> is she 8.1? all right. >> things are moving around on a monthly basis and it's not because of the actual numbers. mark is exactly right. we're 150,000, labor market is improving but the gdp numbers look to be lousy in the second half. it isn't employment related but
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will affect gdp number is a lot which is a twist we have to watch out for. >> how does that get you to 8.1? >> the drop doesn't. 8.1 is just the numbers have been looking better and move around a lot. every month in different directions. so i'm with the seasonals. i'm on austan's side. i erred that way. it's not significant. you have to get 0.3% movement to get anything significant on these numbers. >> do you, mark, then we do 150 next month and 150 in the october -- for october when we get it. we're getting the numbers second. get it to friday before the tuesday. >> that is the best forecast. >> it's moving around to 150. >> i think so. though i'll have to say the economy broadly feels like it's strengthening. >> why wouldn't it given what we're seeing in europe? i guess because europe may be getting a little better. >> think back six, eight weeks ago. i mean, china is what it is. and the other thing is the fiscal cliff issues. everyone has put that on hold
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until after the election. they realize nothing is going to happen so why worry about it. >> then assuming we'll deal with it? >> yeah. >> diane? >> the one thing, i've been talking to a lot of ceos who are doing well and now saying they're hesitating and not firing but they're not hiring -- they're holding on to projects they've had in the pipeline and not going forward because actually i had one ceo tell me point blank, very prominent, say, and they're doing great and he said, i think we're going to fall off the fiscal cliff. it stunned me how much it is coming into their conversation around the round table as well. >> one thing that is a little counter to that and i sympathize with that argument. i've heard it too. you look at job openings, the surveys to see how many job openings are out there, it's picked up quite a bit. there are only a couple three sectors of the economy where job openings are low relative to where they are relative to historical experience. leisure and hospitality, retailing, construction. outside of that, manufacturing, other sectors are back to where
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they were. >> we had this conversation with mark cuban earlier about why it doesn't seem that companies are hiring. you say they are hiring. it's maybe construction. maybe the housing sector. >> they're not back to normal, but my point is that, you know, if businesses were really scared, reluctant, pulling back, they wouldn't have these job openings. the job openings are rising. it's not like they're stable and not going to fall. they are actually rising. >> does it make sense? >> i think that's true but i think they'll start freaking out because i think it will become clear as we get toward november that there isn't an obvious solution even once the election is over on the fiscal cliff, that big fight is coming. >> back in the real world -- >> i agree with austan. >> so far down the totem pole in your decision making process, if i'm talking to an economist i'll tell you i need to know from you about the economic cliff. i'm trying to learn from you but in reality unless you're a monopoly you have to compete. and competing comes first,
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innovating comes first. there are so many things that are so far ahead of what the government is doing and even what the general economy is doing because no business lives in a bubble. >> let me give you an example. >> i think that is true and fair. >> it means more now than ever. i never thought i'd be sitting there reading political strategists to figure out -- when you're on the margin growth it's sub par pays. >> crappie ceos not innovating and sitting around on what the company has done forever, just sitting there oh -- >> if you look at the gdp the congressional budget office forecast tells you if they go off the fiscal cliff we're going into a naflt nasty recession. >> here's how it works with the ceo. the ceo says okay. i've got -- i normally am going to hire 30 people this week or 50 people or a hundred people. not this week. this month let's say. but i'm, all of a sudden europe comes on the radar. it says i'm just not going to hire, i'm going to hire 15 people this month.
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>> i think he goes what is going to happen to the stock price if i take on expense and my options? the question is how long do you walk to the market? i was once asked that question. how often do you mark the market to determine your net worth? that question answers a lot more than what they think is going to happen politically. >> thanks guys. >> we're back to the fiscal cliff again. >> stick around. we are going to hear from everyone again after the numbers hit in about less than 15 minutes now. >> we do have much more to come from our guest host today mark cuban still ahead. we're also counting down to the 8:30 am august employment report. obviously it's what we've been talking about all morning. take a look right now. this is a live shot of the official labor department clock counting it down less than 15 minutes away. we'll bring you the jobs numbers and analysis from our panel of experts. up next the push for new fuel and safety technology and demand for qualified engineers. phil lebeau will bring a report on the lucrative job market. and a programming note. paul ryan coming up a little
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later this morning on "squawk on the street." [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles, like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account.
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welcome back to "squawk" this morning. let's take a look at the morning's big movers intel
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cutting its third quarter revenue outlook claiming the macro economic environment. now expects revenue from 12.9 to $13.5 billion versus wall street's estimates of $14.2 billion. we'll keep an eye on that stock this morning. pandora shares are also slum pleasing and that follows a "wall street journal" report that says apple is now considering starting up a custom radio service like the one that pandora offers. this could be offered through its i-tune service or something like that. separately smith and wesson is jumping in premarket trading. it raised the full year guidance analysts saying gun companies are seeing increased sales because of concerns that gun control laws will become tougher. that is pretty interesting news. >> we can only hope. >> we can only hope? where are you going with that? >> gun control laws are getting tougher. i was saying that for you. we can only hope. >> i agree with that. >> that's what i mean. i have to be you half the time. i can't be both of us. you know, i try to help.
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just trying to help. >> i appreciate it. >> you're welcome. >> becky, help me. please. >> i'll give you one on the pandora and apple thing. >> that's interesting. >> 1996 and 1997 audio net before it was broadcast.com had personalized radio stations. then they changed the copy right laws. you used to be able to go on there get your favorite cds. we put together everything from grateful dead stations, we had hundreds if not a thousand stations. then they changed the copy right laws and then youtube came on and they stopped paying attention to the copy right laws and everything changed. >> it was just a matter of timing. >> just a matter of timing. >> all right. let's check in with phil lebeau. consumer demand for new auto technology has been creating jobs for engineers. phil is here. he's got more on the story. phil, this is a perfect story for a jobs friday. >> it is, becky. these are really the hot jobs in the auto industry. forget the plants opening and the people designing the next generation of cars and trucks. those vehicles are changing dramatically. that's why auto makers are
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scrambling to hire engineers. right now nissan currently looking for 50 to 60 engineers here in north america. when we talked with the auto maker they said unlike in the past where they were competing with other auto companies they're not competing with tech firms and start up firms for engineers. >> they don't have this allure of cars that perhaps my generation did where we couldn't wait to get our license. we couldn't wait to drive a gt of some kind. it's a whole different idea. it's more of a tool to get from a to b. we really have to talk about the elements of the car that pertain to them. >> that's the challenge with trying to recruit the new generation of engineers. talk about jobs that start off pretty well. they start with a salary between 60 and 120,000. signing bonuses most of the time between five and eight grand and applicants generally speaking right now all have multiple offers and that's why this is a red hot competitive market for the auto industry.
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>> the auto companies are competing now, you know, for engineers in all types of businesses. engineers that typically go to google, that typically go to facebook. you know, people they've never competed for before. so they're going to have to change their ways and get a lot more aggressive. >> bottom line, the engineer shortage if you want to call it that in the auto industry is really rippling off in the other industries. guys, we'll see this continue for sometime. in fact, one person we talked with today, one recruiter said we're seeing an engineering shortage for the auto industry and other industries that is going to last at least the next ten years. >> it's been a huge one for technology, too. always a tough time finding -- >> yeah. what's happened is the pricing for engineers has gone through the roof on the west coast. and so you can still get engineers and smart people but it's a battle. i mean, for all high end jobs. >> coming up jobs numbers. thanks, phil lebeau. job numbers for august due at
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8:30 am eastern. seven minutes away. our panel of experts and steve liesman will bring you instant analysis on what the number means for the economy and the presidential election. or your p? with the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies and narrow down to exactly those stocks you want to follow. i'm mark allen of fidelity investments. the expert strategies feature is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
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the big number is coming and that's what the music means. coming up the august jobs report just minutes away. we'll bring you the number, the market reaction and instant analysis from our panel of experts. as we head to break take a look at u.s. equity futures ahead of that big number. bob... oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad
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welcome back to "squawk box." we are about a minute away from the august jobs report. there is a dow-jones news wire survey that still says the economy probably added about 125,000 jobs last month. we know from talking to several economists that they have raised their expectations slightly based on that adp number we got yesterday of 201,000. we're going to find out in a few moments though. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 8.3%. average hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.2%. we've been watching the numbers ahead of this. remember, the markets came to four-year highs yesterday. the s&p touching on that four-year high. this morning the futures have been indicated higher ahead of these numbers. right now you see the dow futures. >> is 250 impossible? >> is 50 impossible?
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>> that's not impossible either. >> they're both possible. that is certainly on the tales of the distribution. unlikely but possible. >> month to month it's a crap shoot. over a couple months like a game of black jack. >> mark zandi is right at 150. we have cnbc's hampton pearson joining us right now from the labor department with those numbers. >> reporter: up 96,000. august nonfarm payrolls increased by 96,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 8.1%. no change in average hourly earnings. the total jobs number below the consensus forecast for a gain of 125,000. the unemployment rate ticking down 0.2 point to 8.1%. the reason for the lowering of the unemployment rate primarily both the labor force shrank by 368,000 and the labor force participation rate declined by 0.2%. we had significant downward revisions in the totals reported for june and july.
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total downward revision now for those two months of 41,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. as far as looking again at august private sector job growth increased by 103,000. the biggest increases, food services and drinking places added 28,000 workers. professional and tech services gained 27,000 jobs. health care increased by 17,000. job losses. manufacturing lost 15,000 jobs last month. government lost 7,000 employees. so we've got a total of 12.5 million total unemployed, 5 million or 40% for six months or longer. the u-6 unemployment rate, total unemployment rate 14.7% down from 15% the previous month. back to you guys. >> all right. hampton, thank you. let's get to our panel for reaction. again, rick santelli is here, steve liesman, mark zandi, diane swank, austan goolsbee, our
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guest host mark cuban. we have a lot of voices around the table. 8.1%, diane. >> you talked to hilda. >> and i'm completely different employment numbers. this is a qe3. >> you guys were all expecting more jobs. across the board. >> this is qe3. with the revisions, 8.1 is still too high. >> how did it get there? what happened? >> the labor force strength and it was all negative. the participation rate fell. >> 250,000 fewer unemployed so the number of unemployed did fall by 250. >> those people just stopped -- >> they could have gotten jobs. they could have given up. it's unclear. >> austan, did hilda assume something? hilda assumed something different, austan. >> do we know what the job creation number is on the household survey? >> yes. minus 119. >> minus 119. okay. the thing to remember, the thing to remember in this is the
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monthly number comes out. it's expected to be 120. that's plus or minus 100,000. you know, so this thing is easily in the margin of error. just a lot of variability month to month. i think around 100,000 is basically consistent with what the modest growth rates have been over this period. so i don't think it's that surprising. >> you know, austan, on top of that -- >> hang on one second. i want to get -- >> unemployment is not significant. >> what is that, diane? >> the movement in unemployment to 8.1 is not a significant move though the headline is going to look 8.3, 8.1. we all know 8.25. it is not a significant move when you look at the size. >> when you're almost 7.9 all of a sudden it's significant. that is below where it came in. >> joe, it has -- you look at it as the news headline. i'm looking at it as the economic, you know, what is the accuracy of government data. >> a good chance of a 7 handle now by november. >> let's bring in rick santelli. >> i don't think so. >> let's bring in rick.
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the markets have turned quite a bit lower on this. it looks like the dow future has lost about 40 points. what other moves do you see there? >> yeah. i think it's very fascinating because one of the big discussions is the government has jumped into the market place in full force in every country on the planet that has a gdp. over a billion dollars a year. well, if the number is bad stocks are going to rally. if the number is good stocks are going to rally. we definitely went from a buck 40 unchanged on the dow. at this point i think that effect will slowly start to come back and mitigate the markets. hey i want to make a prediction for the friday before the election number. right now. right now, joe. you ready? >> 7.9. >> 7.9 unemployment rate. >> that's what i said. >> i want to make it right now. >> i think i already said that though. >> come on. >> remember 2004? >> that will be below when he took office on january 20th. the first time it was below that. >> i didn't give a reason. i didn't give a reason.
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>> you don't have to, rick. you said it a hundred times. >> down to 4.9? just forget another 405 -- >> can i make a point on the revisions that is kind of interesting? >> yeah. >> half of the revisions came from downward revisions to additional government job losses. so other than the ridiculousness -- the government cannot even create a conspiracy in the number of government workers who are employed. >> that's right. >> and cannot accurately count the number of government workers unemployed which is another thing that's interesting. but they went from minus -- they go back -- they went from minus nine minus nine two months in a row to minus 18 and minus 21. the other 20,000 of downward revisions came from the private sector. but a big chunk -- >> revised down 41,000 for july? >> total of 45 i think for -- 40 plus for june and july. >> so two-thirds of the revision was government. one-third was private roughly. >> do you remember when jp
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morgan marked the whale trades and unless they went worse than 10% one way or the other it's not against the law because they don't know what the hell they're talking about? if you don't think there are a bunch of assumptions hilda can make. >> one piece of evidence in your favor, joe. you remember 2004 we had month after month of not very good numbers. and then the friday before the election there was a huge positive number of job growth and everybody said what does this mean? how could this have happened? that is the closest thing you've got. >> well how did it happen? the regimpublicans are just mor dishonest? they did do it but the democrats didn't? >> can't do it, joe. >> so many assumptions. come on. >> there are assumptions. >> hold on. there are no assumptions. absolutely no assumptions at all. this is a mathematical formula. >> did i say nine? >> you misread what i wrote. >> this is a forecast. >> this isn't a forecast.
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you've got data, statistics. >> 7.9. nerf 2nd 7.9. i heard you. >> one thing we saw last month is we started to see postal workers come off. that is going to be one of the big drags at the federal level going forward. i don't have all the detail but the postal workers is one place we're starting to see people retiring out and also getting, i mean some are -- a 99-year-old postal worker out there somewhere? >> this report was disappointing but the reality -- we're still growing 150 per month. >> i don't know if i agree. you were just talking about the character, nature of the data looking inside. i don't see the strength in it, mark. it does trouble me even though a big chunk of the revisions were government. the fact that there was another piece of it, maybe half of the revisions i think were private sector.
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the economy right now seems to be on the edge. is it strengthening or not? >> it is. >> i was looking to this report to show me we were going to give that seasonal balance back we've had the last couple years. i have a hard time looking at this data and seeing that seasonal balance. >> look. >> we have the ism manufacturing less than expectations, we're better than expectations. >> this side hadn't started yet. >> do you regret listening to zandi now? >> you were negative and then you got -- guys, zandi is making sense. look what happens. >> yes. >> now you look like zandi. >> but -- >> adp now. >> one thing i would say is remember the seasonal affect did not kick in yet. last -- the last year at this time remember was that jobs report that came in at zero. that was late rear vised up to plus 100 but if you get that positive seasonal thing it would be starting next month and the month after. >> i will tell you only a few
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industries have lost. it seemed to be in the goods producing sector which is at odds -- >> construction is up 1,000. manufacturing minus 15. temperate health down five all the rest up in a mid lg way. >> we lowered the last two months too. is he answering his phone? did you try to call? he's got a cell phone. joe will answer. >> he will come onchts. >> have you tried to call him? >> i have not tried. a stand up guy behind his numbers. >> participation rate, guys, i know we talked about how disappointing it is but the participation right at 63.5% is the lowest level in 31 years. people either stopped looking or stay in school to avoid -- >> let's talk about the rate which fell 14.7% from 15, it had been below 15. those unemployed for 27 weeks or
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more 5.0. maybe that's down. >> you have to give her credit for that, remembering to change u62. >> the other key statistic -- >> don't you know most people don't even think you're joking? they think you're serious. >> they listen on radio. >> is that right? >> we're on sirius radio. he's smiling. >> what is this -- >> at least got to find the name of the bls commissioner and stop saying hilda slis. you have to go look up their name. >> you call him all the time. what is his name? >> no, joe. this is your responsibility. your conspiracy theory. you have to go find the name. >> go ahead. >> i'm going to give you one testimony on this. i went through, i've done a lot of work with these people. i have known them for years. i went through 9/11 with the bls people. i was calling from the world trade center with them. they don't get any incentives one way or the other politically. that as pretty stunning thing to go through and that was very sobering and i know.
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>> john gail vlvin, a dichbt jo galvin. he is the commissioner. >> can i make a point about the fed? >> vince is a smart guy. i think what they do next week is announce a monthly program. i like jim's idea. i think it gives them flexibility. >> he would like to go more -- >> i wondered what vince would say right now. i think he was wrong when he spoke earlier. i think he is wrong now. >> steve, qe3. this is qe3. >> as to that point you two -- >> 50/50 last week but -- >> take a look at what is happening to oil prices and to the euro this morning right after this news. the euro right at 127.41, a new -- >> yeah. even before the number it was at the highest level since late may. maybe that comp has even moved more backward in time. the other thing is if we could
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put a chart of a ten-year boon yields i haven't seen it since the number but before the number it was breaking out of its recent range as well. so the european interest rate side is very fascinating. especially against the back drop of how the weak data took our rates and really brought them rather dramatically lower. we're at 162 on the 10. before the number it was at 176. no matter how you slice that it's a big move. >> the ten-year boon is 1.51%. where was it before? >> before the number it was trading around, have it right here, around 1.63. so it definitely moved a bit lower after our data. >> one thing i will tell you the other headline i've seen while talking about this is one that says spain will carefully consider whether to request paid, the deputy prime minister speaking so obviously the market looking at the jobs numbers and continuing to look at what is happening in europe. >> what is weird about this relationship here and what we're
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talking about is the market seems to believe the amount of mond monetizing is going to be greater in the u.s. and worse for the dollar than for the euro. >> it already is. >> actually not diane as a percentage of gdp. >> yes. as a percentage of their economy. >> it is greater in europe than the united states. >> that's what i said. greater in europe than in the u.s. i agree with you. absolutely. >> what is interesting is that to me all of this has pointed, and i've been wrong about this for about a month, to a weaker euro. the euro has strengthened on the backs of greater qe, possibility of rate cuts in europe and possible parity between the ecb and it's gone the opposite way. >> i agree with you on that, steve. that is the point i've been making is people don't realize the back door easing the european central bank has done is much greater than the quantitative easing and i think that is an important issue people are not taking into account along with the other central banks around the world also doing quantitative easing
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as they call it. >> i think we wait until after the election because they are looking at the election and each time they do qe it gets less potent. they'll need it after this year. >> i think we got it next week. >> okay. we'll drop this down and have you both back here. >> call me up. >> i will. mark zandi, diane swank. austan goolsbee. steve, rick, guys, thank you all for the terrific work. we appreciate it. coming up more reaction on the jobs report. plus we'll cover some politics and facebook with our guest host and definitive new evidence, photos from the grassy knoll clearly showing smoke coming up indicating a third gunman was indeed there, a second. and a program note don't miss cnbc's exclusive interview with gop -- they'll think i'm real. it's a conspiracy. never let them die. this is at 9:40. he is on the west coast. we have a new picture. look how quickly. coming up at 9:40 paul ryan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab...
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we're back and we now have more from our guest host mark cuban owner of the dallas mavericks and chairman of not hg net anymore, now called access tv. >> thank you. >> did you just clang it? >> it's been a few months. >> he keeps saying they changed it. >> just so the viewer knows. i remember hd net. what have you changed? >> the whole concept is that if you want financial news you go to cnbc. there is news -- >> damn right. >> damn right. so there's real time news, net
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works for hard news. >> right. >> you have espn for sports. but if something is happening in the music and pop culture world there is no place to go. you might go to et and get a crawl but that's it. we want to be live-live. if something happens in the music and pop culture world we're there. in terms of live programming we have concerts, concerts, concerts. so we have an incubus, lincoln park concert saturday. we have this thing called live look in. we went to budweiser's made in america this past weekend. jay-z goes on stage we give you a live look just like they do on mlb network for a game. >> right. is there a sports center version of this? >> yes. called access live. >> and a show. >> called access live. we go around the wheel and tell you everything that's happening like here in new york we're at fashion week and covering all the new fashion introductions so if you want to know what's happening right now in music and pop culture, you want to watch access live, go to access tv. >> is the money in this for you a carriage fee or really the
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advertising? probab probably a combination of both. >> we're in 5 million homes and growing so weef -- 35 million homes and growing so we've added a lot of homes. just switched from hd net, just picked up budweiser as a major sponsor and others coming on. >> i remember when you started this hd was huge because nobody else was offering it. >> we were the first high definition television network. >> now everybody has it. >> that's why we changed. i thought we'd have a little more runway in terms of being exclusive to hd and i was wrong. they came on a lot faster but that's what i like to do. i like to change things. i think television will cover the cnbc model a lot more than the traditional network model when things go live. i think that has a lot to do with the fact that television is zero latency. you see it all the time. if you were to post all these same interviews and discussions online you don't know when people will get to it. there is extended latency. now you see all the twitter and social media and not only do you
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influence them but they influence you. that is changing television. >> do have you to bid for the concerts? >> no. we are the only place that wants to show them. >> that may change at some point. >> we're trying to lock them up. dan rather reports. >> this presidential a times sq rolex. >> every tuesday night -- >> ohio becomes like a sauna. all they can do is wait and sweat. >> the difference now between when he was at cbs, i don't look at his shows until they come on the air. >> we will have much more with mark cuban. stick around. "squawk" will be right back. ready or not, the stock of the day is coming up. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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coming up in a little under an hour, an exclusive interview with paul ryan. he's going to weigh in on the jobs report and president obama's speech last night. and up knox, we'll get parting shots from our guest host. been a lot of fun to spend time with mark cuban.
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and next week, a huge lineup of "squawk" financial newsmakers. learning from the past and protecting the future. we have former wells fargo chairman and ceo, former morgan stanley ceo and the former fed governor. so stay tuned. we'll see you next week with all of that. bob...
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.
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stock of the day is going to be intel. company cutting its third-quarter revenue estimates. withdrawing its full-year forecast. the demand for chips decline, customers cut inventory instead of adding to it. also macro slowdown, it talked about, around the world. and even in emerging markets. also businesses bought fewer personal computers. it's $24 and change, come down from about $30. slowly and steadily before this is out. now it's down 70 cents or so today. but it's been sort of discounting this slowdown. let's get parting shots from our guest host, mark cuban, owner of the dallas mavericks and chairman of -- >> axs tv. >> how are you looking for next
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season? >> i think we'll be good. we had to turn over our roster because we were getting old. we brought in mayo, kaman, brand, collison. but i think dirk is going to come back with something to prove. >> did you ever buy s&ps? >> yeah. >> you do? where are you after this big run-up to four-year highs? >> i hedged. i always try to have a hedge on because honestly i'm terrified of high-frequency trading. i think we'll see another type of flash crash, maybe not across the entire market. but it might be in one of my names. so i'm very concerned about that. i always try to have a hedge on. >> does that drive you crazy that we haven't gotten to any sort of solution -- >> oh, it's horrible. whenever you have algorithms trying to outsmart other algorithms and they're moving in millisecond speed, there's no
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way human intervention can do anything. >> but as a trader, you don't have any faith in the market and the system? and even if the averages are pushing higher, you don't think we've fixed it, it's going to happen again? >> yeah, it happens every day. you see mini crashes every day. >> in the retail, people come back in and the public comes back in, will there be enough to minimize -- if everybody came back in, maybe a smaller percentage? >> no, i don't think so at all. what's surprising to me -- >> it's bad, then. >> it is. but what's surprising to me is ceos of major public corporations where high-frequency traders are using their stocks to try to get advantages over retail traders, they're not going to the exchanges and saying, stop this. you would think they want investors, not millisecond traders -- >> the stock goes where it's supp t

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